Fight: Danny Garcia (33-1, 19 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (34-3-1, 25 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -1750, Rios +1350 (5 Dimes, 2/15/18)
Purse: Garcia: $1.25 million, Rios: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless
Why you should watch this fight
Primarily to confirm whether Danny Garcia - who lost for the first time in his professional career in a close, competitive split-decision loss to Keith Thurman last March and is coming off the longest layoff of his career after that loss - should still be considered one of the elite welterweights in what may now be the most stacked division in boxing.
Indeed, the welterweight division is deep in talent with names like Thurman, Errol Spence, Manny Pacquiao, Shawn Porter, and now Terence Crawford - who makes his welterweight debut in April vs. undefeated champion Jeff Horn for the WBO title after becoming the undisputed junior welterweight champion this past August. (Crawford is currently rated the Ring Magazine #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport behind only Gennady Golovkin and was the first undisputed world champion in any weight class in over a decade.) This fight should serve as a gauge to determine whether Garcia - a no-frills but talented and skilled boxer who probably has the most impressive fight resume out of any of the top welterweights - still belongs among the elite in the division.
The gauge for Garcia on Saturday night will be Brandon Rios, a former WBA world champion at lightweight who has arguably been one of the most exciting action fighters of this generation. Despite being stopped in his last loss back in November of 2015 vs. Tim Bradley (Rios's only stoppage loss and the only time he's been knocked down in his career), Rios is known for his Mexican-style grit and having an excellent chin. Rios is a come-forward pressure fighter with good power who is a fan favorite and a tough out for anyone, but this fight vs. Garcia will be just his 2nd fight after a 1.5-year break (temporary retirement) from the ring after his loss to Bradley. But Rios appears to be rejuvenated and in the best shape of his boxing career after reuniting with original trainer and close friend Robert Garcia, following a one-fight stint with Los Angeles-based trainer Ricky Funez.
Garcia vs. Rios is a WBC title eliminator, meaning that the winner of this fight becomes the second mandatory challenger for Thurman's WBC belt. (Porter, who beat Andre Berto in a WBC title eliminator last April, is currently Thurman's first mandatory opponent.) If Rios wins this fight, it would be an impressive comeback from a brief retirement, would be by far the best win of Rios's career, and would put him on track again for the high six-figure/low seven-figure paydays he enjoyed in the prime of his career vs. fighters like Manny Pacquiao and Mike Alvarado.
If Garcia wins (and wins impressively), it would further solidify his status as one of the best fighters at 147 lbs and as still a serious threat to any of the top guys in the division.
Prefight Analysis
As an over 20-1 favorite at some sportsbooks, Garcia is (by far) the widest favorite I've done a prediction for so it should be no surprise I'm picking him to win big here. A prime Rios goes 12 rounds with Garcia every time and would've even been competitive in spots with his relentless pressure and solid chin. But a past-prime, battle-worn Rios who's been relatively inactive the past couple of years and never really looked impressive at welterweight will have a difficult time hanging in there vs. a prime, fresh Garcia who is legitimately one of the top four or five boxers in a deep welterweight division and is arguably one of the top 20 boxers in the world pound-for-pound.
Rios is a name well-known to all hardcore boxing fans and is notorious for being a tough-out action fighter but this fight is a mismatch to the point you could question why it was even approved as a WBC belt title eliminator. Garcia is considerably more skilled, faster, and has greater (as well as more accurate) punching power than the relatively predictable and limited Rios, who even in his prime never beat a fighter of Garcia's caliber. (Garcia, on the other hand, has beaten a long list of fighters more talented and skilled than Rios - see Amir Khan, Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Paulie Malignaggi, as well as a few others.)
Rios knows only one way to fight (which for the most part has served him well throughout his boxing career) - a style predicated on high-volume pressure, trading punches from close distance, and a will to win that seems nearly always greater than his opponent's. But Garcia has a lot to prove coming off the first loss of his career and has proven to have one of the better chins in boxing (having never been knocked down in his career despite having faced some of the more feared punchers in the sport like Matthysse and Thurman). It's hard to believe Rios - whose power has never been eye-catching at welterweight like it was at lower weights - poses much of a knockout threat to Garcia with a punching attack that is high in volume but is generally predictable with not much speed or creativity behind the punches. Garcia, on the other hand, is a deceptively slick, savvy puncher who will land crushing power punches (in particular his left hook, which is one of the best left hooks in the sport) vs. Rios, who has notoriously poor defensive skills (including little to no head movement, relatively slow reflexes, and a willingness to take clean power punches in order to counter with his own attack).
Garcia wants to make a statement here that he is still one of the top fighters in the world at 147 lbs; Rios appears to have been the guy handpicked by Garcia's manager, Al Haymon, as the opponent Garcia would best be able to make that statement against with little to no risk of a second consecutive loss on his boxing record.
Despite the criticisms and negative assessment in this analysis, Rios is actually one of my favorite fighters; I respect his chin and tremendous toughness enough to believe he'll probably last the majority of the 12 rounds with Garcia. But at the end of the day, this is arguably a low A-level fighter in Garcia vs. a C-level fighter in Rios (with D-level defense) who's best days are behind him. I see Garcia breaking Rios down in the mid to late rounds to win this fight by stoppage - possibly even a vicious stoppage that forces Rios back into retirement. There's certainly a chance Rios has enough of a chin to get through the full 12 rounds - especially given that Garcia can be very patient at times and may be looking more for spots to counter rather than seek and destroy. But I think the (wide) mismatch in skill, Garcia's (oft-underappreciated) power, and Rios's declining abilities and propensity for getting hit cleanly makes a bet on Garcia to win inside the distance (which can currently be found at -130) the best bet for this fight.
Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO
Recommended bet: Garcia by TKO/KO (.5 unit)
Garcia and Porter will be putting all their strength to win the World Boxing Council welterweight title. The title has been recently vacated. Keith ‘One Time’ Thurman had previously held the belt and eventually gave it up after being in possession of it for more than 12 months without defending it. Here you can watch Danny Garcia vs Shawn Porter live online free in HD streaming.
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