Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis
Why you should watch this fight
There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.
Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.
The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.
Prefight Analysis
On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.
I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.
Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.
Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.
The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.
The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.
But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).
I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.
Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.
Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.
I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.
Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)
I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!
Prediction: Porter to win
Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)
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