Saturday, March 3, 2018

Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction



Fight: Deontay Wilder (39-0, 38 KOs) vs. Luis Ortiz (28-0, 24 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 3, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Wilder: -325, Ortiz: +295 (5 Dimes, 3/3/18)
Purses: Wilder: $2.1 million, Ortiz: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Ortiz: #5 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Ortiz: Southpaw
Referee: David Fields


Why you should watch this fight


A once long-dormant heavyweight division has been heating up over the past couple of years with the emergence of undefeated stars like Anthony Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Luis Ortiz, and Australian Jason Parker to once again become one of the most exciting divisions in the sport. (Undefeated Tyson Fury, who ended Wladimir Klitschko's nearly decade-long reign as heavyweight champion in 2015 is also reportedly making a return to the ring this year after a more than two-year hiatus.)

All four major heavyweight titles are currently held by Joshua (WBA, IBF), Wilder (WBC), and Parker (WBO); this Saturday's fight between Wilder and Ortiz in Brooklyn and the fight later this month (March 31st) between Joshua and Parker in the United Kingdom essentially serve as semifinal matchups for a superfight later this year or early next year that hopefully crowns the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in nearly 18 years (Lennox Lewis in 2000).

Wilder is one of the most feared and avoided boxers in the sport - the WBC heavyweight champion who boasts a perfect record 39-0, with 38 of those wins (97.4%) coming by TKO/KO. Half (19) of those 38 knockouts have come in the first round, including his most recent fight last November - a rematch vs. Bermane Stiverne. Wilder has excellent power in both hands (particularly his right) and - in knocking out Stiverne last November - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his professional career. (In their first fight back in January 2015, Stiverne went the full 12 round distance with Wilder, losing a unanimous decision.)

Wilder, who has been heavyweight champion for three years (since beating Stiverne to earn the title), will be making his seventh title defense vs. undefeated Cuban heavyweight Luis Ortiz. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also a feared, heavily-avoided fighter with excellent power - only two of his scored 28 professional fights have gone the distance, with the other 26 ending in victory by early TKO/KO/DQ. (Ortiz also had two other fights that ended as an early stoppage victory but were later ruled no contests and struck from his win-loss record.)

Ortiz is by far the toughest opponent Wilder has faced in his career and is considered by most observers to have better overall skills than Wilder. At 38 years old, Ortiz is looking to win his first major world title belt. Ortiz is also attempting to become the first Cuban fighter - and first Latino born outside the United States - in boxing history to win a heavyweight title.

Again, Wilder vs. Ortiz will be one of the more significant fights to take place this year - the winner will be in line for a fight vs. the winner of Joshua vs. Parker (a fight that takes place in a few weeks) to determine the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world (assuming the politics of boxing don't get in the way and the fight can actually be made).


Prefight Analysis


All things considered, Wilder is the guy who I feel will probably win this fight. Wilder has exceptional power in both hands (to the point of - as I've mentioned above - having knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career), is in his prime, and is facing a past-prime fighter in a 38-year old Ortiz who can't match Wilder's athleticism or speed. Ortiz can box on the move but, given his relative deficit in athleticism and speed compared to Wilder, I find it unlikely he'll be able to evade Wilder's game-changing punching power for a full 12 rounds.

I expect Wilder's above-average jab and rangy boxing style - augmented by an 83" reach and 7' wingspan - to do a decent enough job of keeping Ortiz's offensive attack at bay. (More precisely, I expect Wilder's ability to box from distance, his quicker foot movement, as well as Ortiz's respect of Wilder's knockout power, to largely nullify Ortiz's clear advantage in boxing skill.) Wilder is a supremely confident, determined fighter who's made it known that he wants to go down as one of the all-time greats. Perhaps it's more talk and bravado than "all-time great"-caliber substance but I truly believe Wilder flat out just wants to win this fight more than Ortiz and that that desire will go a long way towards carrying him to victory here. Wilder is one of my favorite boxers - I'm rooting for him to win this fight and would grade him at approximately 55-60% to get the victory Saturday night.

But with all that said, it's tough to overlook the value of Ortiz as a 3-1 underdog. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also undefeated with impressive power (as evidenced by his career 80% TKO/KO ratio). And like Wilder, Ortiz has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career. But Ortiz is almost certainly the more skilled, versatile fighter in this matchup. Ortiz is a high-level, Cuban-schooled technical boxer with extensive amateur experience (an impressive 343-19 record in the amateurs) facing a still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder who's arguably not shown much in the way skill other than a solid, rangy (though often basic and predictable) jab to complement his explosive power and athleticism. Though not his fault (as he's consistently called out top-level competition to fight him and has even been more than willing to travel overseas in hostile territory for big fights), Wilder has yet as a pro to face an elite heavyweight -  Ortiz will be by far the best he'll have faced thus far in his career.

Ortiz likely has the advantage in a pure boxing match, and also in fighting from close distance as he's proven in numerous fights to be a skilled inside fighter - whereas Wilder has actually struggled on the inside vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's recent fights vs. Gerald Washington, Artur Spilka, and Eric Molina). If Ortiz can use his superior boxing skill to evade Wilder's power (in particular limit the effectiveness of Wilder's right hand) he has an excellent chance of winning the fight to the point where I wouldn't be at all surprised if he stops Wilder in the mid to late rounds. Ortiz is the more accurate, savvy power puncher facing a fighter in Wilder who at times is prone to swinging wildly (thus leaving himself out of position and open to clean counterpunching) and whose chin has never been tested by an elite puncher.

There are reasons why even Wilder's promoter, Lou DiBella, was reluctant to take what is widely considered a high-risk, relatively low-reward fight for Wilder. Given his frequent mentions of UK heavyweight superstar Anthony Joshua in the prefight build-up to this fight, I suspect Wilder is at least somewhat overlooking this fight and perhaps underestimating Ortiz - who I'll point out again is a heavy-handed power puncher who has never come close to losing a fight in his professional career and is the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup.

I do think in this fight that Wilder's impressive power from distance - and superior athleticism and speed - is likely to overwhelm Ortiz's superior skill en route to a 39th victory by stoppage in his 40th fight. But given Ortiz's clear advantage in skill and experience - as well as the fight-changing punching power he himself brings to the table - I can't help but think Ortiz to win at (approximately) +300 odds is the best bet on this fight. If you're giving me +300 odds (even currently as high as +325 at some books) on the better skilled, more experienced and versatile fighter who's never come close to losing a fight (and who's never even been knocked down in his career), I'll take those odds almost every time. Especially when he's up against a guy who - despite an impressive record - has no experience vs. top-level competition and relies more on his athleticism and power than his still somewhat raw boxing abilities. But I will hedge the primary bet on Ortiz to win with what I feel is the most likely outcome of the fight - Wilder by TKO/KO (which can currently be found as low as -150 at Bovada).

I'll be at this fight Saturday night so regardless of the outcome I'm expecting some intense, explosive between these two heavy-handed heavyweights!


Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 1) Ortiz to win (risk .5 unit) 

2) Wilder by TKO/KO (to win .5 unit)




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