Fight: Timothy Bradley (32-1-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (33-2-1, 24 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Bradley -380, Rios +340 (5 Dimes, 11/6/15)
Purse: Bradley: $1.9 million, Rios: $800,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Bradley: #4 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Bradley: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks
Positives for Bradley
Negatives for Bradley
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction
Positives for Bradley
- Current WBO welterweight title holder. As a five-time world champion at junior welterweight and welterweight, Bradley is an experienced, battle-tested boxer whose resume is on par with the best 140 and 147 lb fighters of the past decade. Other than Floyd Mayweather is the only boxer to defeat future first ballot hall-of-famers Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez. With his June 2013 split decision victory vs. Marquez, Bradley likely sealed his ticket into the International Boxing Hall of Fame.
- A long-time undefeated fighter whose only loss in career was a competitive unanimous decision loss to Pacquiao in April 2014. As recently as last year was ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport by Ring Magazine; has defeated an impressive list of former world champions including Pacquiao, Marquez, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, Ruslan Provodnikov, Miguel Vazquez, Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Jessie Vargas, and Junior Witter. Most or all of the former world champions Bradley has beaten were better skilled, arguably tougher opponents than Rios at the time.
- Technically savvy, versatile boxer who can outbox opponents from the outside with reach, speed, and movement but is also often willing to use his toughness and physical strength to brawl inside. Bradley is a skilled boxer who is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies during fights - shown most notably in his first fight with Pacquiao where he outworked Manny in the 2nd half of the fight. Bradley comes into this fight with Rios with a clear skill advantage.
- Determined boxer with heart who is good at finding ways to win close fights. Despite all he's accomplished in boxing is still highly motivated and still fights like he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao over three years ago.
- Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Bradley possesses very good to great vertical and horizontal movement which should allow him to have success evading Rios's pressure over the course of the fight. Rios is a relatively slow, flat-footed fighter who will likely have trouble cutting off the ring vs. the more mobile Bradley and will also likely have trouble beating Bradley to the punch due to inferior hand speed.
- Many feel Rios is a threat to defeat Bradley by TKO/KO but Bradley has already survived (and beaten) better power punchers than Rios in Pacquiao and Provodnikov who were both also more mobile than Rios. Bradley is arguably a different level of fighter than Rios, with clear skill, speed, and quickness advantages, as well as a slight reach advantage and jab which he should be able to use to keep Rios at bay throughout most of the fight.
- Bradley has a new trainer in current ESPN boxing commentator Teddy Atlas, who has trained (or helped train) former world champions Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, and Alexander Povetkin. Atlas has not been an active trainer in recent years, but is more experienced and arguably more knowledgeable than Bradley's former trainer Joel Diaz. Atlas is reportedly training Bradley to keep distance and box from range in the upcoming fight vs. Rios, which will likely be to Bradley's advantage.
- Although Bradley has shown a questionable chin in the 12th round of recent fights vs. Vargas and Provodnikov, Bradley is a mentally tough fighter who has never been stopped in his career. The knockdowns Bradley suffered vs. Provodnikov is the only time Bradley has been knocked down in his career.
- Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 8.5 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of their October 2013 fight.
- Current WBO welterweight title holder. As a five-time world champion at junior welterweight and welterweight, Bradley is an experienced, battle-tested boxer whose resume is on par with the best 140 and 147 lb fighters of the past decade. Other than Floyd Mayweather is the only boxer to defeat future first ballot hall-of-famers Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez. With his June 2013 split decision victory vs. Marquez, Bradley likely sealed his ticket into the International Boxing Hall of Fame.
- A long-time undefeated fighter whose only loss in career was a competitive unanimous decision loss to Pacquiao in April 2014. As recently as last year was ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport by Ring Magazine; has defeated an impressive list of former world champions including Pacquiao, Marquez, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, Ruslan Provodnikov, Miguel Vazquez, Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Jessie Vargas, and Junior Witter. Most or all of the former world champions Bradley has beaten were better skilled, arguably tougher opponents than Rios at the time.
- Technically savvy, versatile boxer who can outbox opponents from the outside with reach, speed, and movement but is also often willing to use his toughness and physical strength to brawl inside. Bradley is a skilled boxer who is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies during fights - shown most notably in his first fight with Pacquiao where he outworked Manny in the 2nd half of the fight. Bradley comes into this fight with Rios with a clear skill advantage.
- Determined boxer with heart who is good at finding ways to win close fights. Despite all he's accomplished in boxing is still highly motivated and still fights like he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao over three years ago.
- Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Bradley possesses very good to great vertical and horizontal movement which should allow him to have success evading Rios's pressure over the course of the fight. Rios is a relatively slow, flat-footed fighter who will likely have trouble cutting off the ring vs. the more mobile Bradley and will also likely have trouble beating Bradley to the punch due to inferior hand speed.
- Many feel Rios is a threat to defeat Bradley by TKO/KO but Bradley has already survived (and beaten) better power punchers than Rios in Pacquiao and Provodnikov who were both also more mobile than Rios. Bradley is arguably a different level of fighter than Rios, with clear skill, speed, and quickness advantages, as well as a slight reach advantage and jab which he should be able to use to keep Rios at bay throughout most of the fight.
- Bradley has a new trainer in current ESPN boxing commentator Teddy Atlas, who has trained (or helped train) former world champions Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, and Alexander Povetkin. Atlas has not been an active trainer in recent years, but is more experienced and arguably more knowledgeable than Bradley's former trainer Joel Diaz. Atlas is reportedly training Bradley to keep distance and box from range in the upcoming fight vs. Rios, which will likely be to Bradley's advantage.
- Although Bradley has shown a questionable chin in the 12th round of recent fights vs. Vargas and Provodnikov, Bradley is a mentally tough fighter who has never been stopped in his career. The knockdowns Bradley suffered vs. Provodnikov is the only time Bradley has been knocked down in his career.
- Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 8.5 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of their October 2013 fight.
Negatives for Bradley
- At 32 years old, Bradley has looked past his prime and somewhat battle-worn in recent fights; in his last three fights Bradley has an unimpressive record of 1-1-1. Last year, Bradley faded in the later rounds of his loss vs. Pacquiao and draw vs. Diego Chaves (though the Chaves fight was a fight many still felt he won convincingly). In Bradley's most recent fight vs. Vargas, he was almost knocked down late in the 12th round and possibly could've been stopped if he hadn't been saved by the bell. Rios - a more natural pressure fighter with better power than Vargas - is coming off one of the more impressive wins of his career with his TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado and poses a real threat if Bradley slows down in the later rounds as he's done in recent fights.
- Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which will allow Rios - who has an excellent chin - to take chances and be relentlessly aggressive throughout the fight. Unlike the Pacquiao fight, Rios won't have to worry about power with Bradley's counter punching so should have opportunities in spots to corner and unload power punches on Bradley despite his clear disadvantage in foot speed.
- Bradley is an elusive fighter but his defense is arguably overrated and has been especially questionable as of late. Bradley has been getting hit increasingly flush in recent fights, in particular when he chooses to stand in at close range and brawl. Bradley sometimes shows an inclination to brawl (rather than box) in certain spots (an inclination that has increased since his controversial win vs. Pacquiao), which could be to his detriment vs. a dangerous pressure fighter in Rios.
- This will be Bradley's first professional fight without Joel Diaz as his trainer. Teddy Atlas, Bradley's new trainer, is a highly respected and skilled trainer (even more so than Diaz by most accounts) but it's a huge unknown what effect a new trainer will have on an older, past prime boxer who'd only been with one trainer his entire career.
- At 32 years old, Bradley has looked past his prime and somewhat battle-worn in recent fights; in his last three fights Bradley has an unimpressive record of 1-1-1. Last year, Bradley faded in the later rounds of his loss vs. Pacquiao and draw vs. Diego Chaves (though the Chaves fight was a fight many still felt he won convincingly). In Bradley's most recent fight vs. Vargas, he was almost knocked down late in the 12th round and possibly could've been stopped if he hadn't been saved by the bell. Rios - a more natural pressure fighter with better power than Vargas - is coming off one of the more impressive wins of his career with his TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado and poses a real threat if Bradley slows down in the later rounds as he's done in recent fights.
- Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which will allow Rios - who has an excellent chin - to take chances and be relentlessly aggressive throughout the fight. Unlike the Pacquiao fight, Rios won't have to worry about power with Bradley's counter punching so should have opportunities in spots to corner and unload power punches on Bradley despite his clear disadvantage in foot speed.
- Bradley is an elusive fighter but his defense is arguably overrated and has been especially questionable as of late. Bradley has been getting hit increasingly flush in recent fights, in particular when he chooses to stand in at close range and brawl. Bradley sometimes shows an inclination to brawl (rather than box) in certain spots (an inclination that has increased since his controversial win vs. Pacquiao), which could be to his detriment vs. a dangerous pressure fighter in Rios.
- This will be Bradley's first professional fight without Joel Diaz as his trainer. Teddy Atlas, Bradley's new trainer, is a highly respected and skilled trainer (even more so than Diaz by most accounts) but it's a huge unknown what effect a new trainer will have on an older, past prime boxer who'd only been with one trainer his entire career.
Positives for Rios
- Former WBA lightweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earlier this year scored one of the more impressive wins of his career with a 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, Colorado. (Alvarado is a former light welterweight champion who beat Rios in their previous fight.) In October 2012 Rios earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado - Alvarado's first loss as a professional.
- Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (a fight which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
- Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed. If Saturday's fight vs. Bradley turns into a brawl (which it could given Bradley's inclination at times to brawl), Rios stands a good chance of having success as that type of fight comes much more naturally to Rios than Bradley.
- Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in his three fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight.
- Like Bradley, Rios is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be in jeopardy with a loss.
- Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.
- Rios is Mexican-American; due to his fan-friendly fight style and the anticipated solid presence of Mexican/Mexican-American fight fans, it is expected that the crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center will be pro-Rios.
- Former WBA lightweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earlier this year scored one of the more impressive wins of his career with a 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, Colorado. (Alvarado is a former light welterweight champion who beat Rios in their previous fight.) In October 2012 Rios earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado - Alvarado's first loss as a professional.
- Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (a fight which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
- Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed. If Saturday's fight vs. Bradley turns into a brawl (which it could given Bradley's inclination at times to brawl), Rios stands a good chance of having success as that type of fight comes much more naturally to Rios than Bradley.
- Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in his three fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight.
- Like Bradley, Rios is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be in jeopardy with a loss.
- Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.
- Rios is Mexican-American; due to his fan-friendly fight style and the anticipated solid presence of Mexican/Mexican-American fight fans, it is expected that the crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center will be pro-Rios.
Negatives for Rios
- Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Bradley will be fighting a boxer with a significant advantage in technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed. Rios will have to turn fight with Bradley into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match, Bradley likely wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and slight reach advantage (which he can use to maintain distance from Rios's power punching).
- Rios has lost two out of his last four fights, including a wide unanimous decision loss to Manny Pacquiao (a fight where he arguably didn't win a single round). Rios looked good in his win earlier this year vs. Alvarado but Alvarado, by his own admittance, didn't train properly for the fight and was heavily distracted by legal and substance abuse issues. Rios's only other win in the past two years was a DQ victory last year vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last six fights.
- Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for higher skilled opponents such as Alvarado in their first two fights and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.
- Like Bradley has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his first two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who is getting older and never in his career beaten a boxer with Bradley's skill, be able to stay competitive vs. a pound-for-pound caliber fighter?
- Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Bradley will be fighting a boxer with a significant advantage in technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed. Rios will have to turn fight with Bradley into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match, Bradley likely wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and slight reach advantage (which he can use to maintain distance from Rios's power punching).
- Rios has lost two out of his last four fights, including a wide unanimous decision loss to Manny Pacquiao (a fight where he arguably didn't win a single round). Rios looked good in his win earlier this year vs. Alvarado but Alvarado, by his own admittance, didn't train properly for the fight and was heavily distracted by legal and substance abuse issues. Rios's only other win in the past two years was a DQ victory last year vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last six fights.
- Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for higher skilled opponents such as Alvarado in their first two fights and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.
- Like Bradley has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his first two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who is getting older and never in his career beaten a boxer with Bradley's skill, be able to stay competitive vs. a pound-for-pound caliber fighter?
Prefight Summary
There are certainly some reasons why Rios could win this fight. Rios is highly confident and coming off perhaps the best win of his career - an easy 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado after the two split their two previous highly competitive (and fight-of-the-year caliber) fights. Although Alvarado, by his own admittance, came into the fight a bit out of shape and distracted by personal issues, Rios fought with a sense of urgency we've rarely seen in him before and looked as sharp and accurate as he has ever looked.
Rios is indeed a skilled brawler who, while not as fast or talented as Bradley, is effective at cutting off the ring and will almost certainly have his opportunities over the course of 12 rounds, especially vs. Bradley who seems to have a natural inclination towards brawling when pressured. Bradley can be elusive, but he's also shown susceptibility in recent fights to getting hit, most notably in his 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov (where he suffered the 1st knockdown of his career and appeared out on his feet on multiple occasions) and late in his most recent fight vs. Vargas, where he was hit flush and struggled to stay on his feet in the closing seconds of the 12th round. (Vargas, with only 9 KOs in 27 fights, is not known for his punching power.)
Bradley has been in some wars in recent fights and appears to be not quite the fighter he once was; if what seems to be a rejuvenated Rios can maintain pressure on Bradley throughout the fight and turn it into a brawl, it's highly conceivable Rios could wear Bradley down and get the TKO/KO victory in the later rounds.
But, at the end of the day, I do think even a slightly past prime, battle-worn Bradley should be able to box circles around what is essentially a B-level fighter in Brandon Rios. Not a lot of people realize Bradley has been one of the top fighters pound-for-pound in the sport over the past decade (just last year ranked as high as #3 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine) and has the solid resume to back it up. Bradley has clear skill and speed advantages over Rios (as Pacquiao did when he fought Rios, though Bradley can't match Pacquiao's power) and *should* (like Pacquiao) be able to win nearly every one with effective boxing and movement.
Bradley's inclination to brawl could get him in trouble in spots but Rios, in my opinion, is too slow and flat-footed to give Bradley consistent trouble over the course of 12 rounds. Bradley has already fought (and beaten) better punchers with more skill than Rios and should have little to no problems in this fight.
I think Bradley by decision is far and away the smartest bet in this matchup *but* would recommend
hedging the bet with Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 as a knockout in the last 4-6 rounds of the fight is the only way I see Rios winning.
Rios is indeed a skilled brawler who, while not as fast or talented as Bradley, is effective at cutting off the ring and will almost certainly have his opportunities over the course of 12 rounds, especially vs. Bradley who seems to have a natural inclination towards brawling when pressured. Bradley can be elusive, but he's also shown susceptibility in recent fights to getting hit, most notably in his 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov (where he suffered the 1st knockdown of his career and appeared out on his feet on multiple occasions) and late in his most recent fight vs. Vargas, where he was hit flush and struggled to stay on his feet in the closing seconds of the 12th round. (Vargas, with only 9 KOs in 27 fights, is not known for his punching power.)
Bradley has been in some wars in recent fights and appears to be not quite the fighter he once was; if what seems to be a rejuvenated Rios can maintain pressure on Bradley throughout the fight and turn it into a brawl, it's highly conceivable Rios could wear Bradley down and get the TKO/KO victory in the later rounds.
But, at the end of the day, I do think even a slightly past prime, battle-worn Bradley should be able to box circles around what is essentially a B-level fighter in Brandon Rios. Not a lot of people realize Bradley has been one of the top fighters pound-for-pound in the sport over the past decade (just last year ranked as high as #3 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine) and has the solid resume to back it up. Bradley has clear skill and speed advantages over Rios (as Pacquiao did when he fought Rios, though Bradley can't match Pacquiao's power) and *should* (like Pacquiao) be able to win nearly every one with effective boxing and movement.
Bradley's inclination to brawl could get him in trouble in spots but Rios, in my opinion, is too slow and flat-footed to give Bradley consistent trouble over the course of 12 rounds. Bradley has already fought (and beaten) better punchers with more skill than Rios and should have little to no problems in this fight.
I think Bradley by decision is far and away the smartest bet in this matchup *but* would recommend
hedging the bet with Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 as a knockout in the last 4-6 rounds of the fight is the only way I see Rios winning.
Prediction: Bradley by decision (2 units)
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