Mayweather vs. Berto: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (48-0, 26 KOs) vs. Andre Berto (30-3, 23 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World and WBA Super World Welterweight titles
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -2400, Berto +1800 (5 Dimes, 9/12/15)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million, Berto: $4 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion, Berto: Not ranked
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Berto: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Mayweather opened in late July as a massive -7500 (1-75) favorite, with Berto initially listed as a 25-1 underdog. Public betting has since trended heavily in favor of Berto - likely because the initial odds were poor for potential Mayweather bettors (e.g., would have to bet $75 on Mayweather just to win $1), while 25-1 for a puncher like Berto may have been appealing to some. In the first few days of fight week, however, most of the betting has been on Mayweather. Mayweather is currently a strong -2400 favorite, with Berto as a +1800 (18-1) underdog.

Why Floyd Mayweather will win

By most objective measures, this fight is a clear mismatch. Mayweather is undefeated, widely considered the best boxer pound-for-pound in the sport and of this generation facing a fighter in Berto who is 3-3 in his last six fights and arguably not even one of the top 20 welterweights in the world currently.

Mayweather - possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport - is vastly superior to the defensively suspect Berto in terms of skill and boxing IQ. Mayweather is expected to land cleanly and consistently as the fight progresses while there's a good chance Berto will have trouble getting into range vs. the longer, more mobile Mayweather.

Mayweather has a clear experience advantage over Berto; in his career he's already beaten at least a dozen boxers who were better fighters than Berto (including arguably every fighter he's fought since 2005) and has decisively beaten 2 out of the 3 fighters Berto has lost to (Robert Guerrero and Victor Ortiz). Berto on the other hand, has never beaten a A or even a B+-level fighter, with his best win coming in a closely contested matchup vs. Luis Collazo over five years ago.

Mayweather is a defensively gifted fighter who has the foot speed, reach advantage (4"), and stamina to elude Berto's dangerous combination of power and speed the same way he's eluded previous opponents who had more power and speed than Berto has. Berto is over six years younger than Mayweather but, at 31 years old and after multiple debilitating injuries (including a right shoulder injury that could have been career ending), his best years may be behind him. Berto has been a seemingly more cautious fighter since the shoulder injury a couple years ago, which he can't afford to be in tonight's fight vs. Floyd.

Berto did win his last fight via 6th round TKO in March vs. a respectable opponent in Josesito Lopez, but was actually behind on two out of the three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage.

Lastly Mayweather, a Las Vegas resident, is fighting at home in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the 12th consecutive time in front of a Mayweather-friendly referee (Kenny Bayless) on a card promoted by his promotional company (Mayweather Promotions) and in front of a crowd which may actually be pro-Mayweather (which is uncharacteristic for Mayweather fights) considering the relatively undistinguished opponent he's facing.

Why Andre Berto will win

A former two-time welterweight champion and current interim WBA welterweight champion, Berto is a puncher with the classic "puncher's chance." At 32 years old (6.5 years younger than Mayweather), he still actually has quite a bit of the explosive speed and power in both hands that he had five years ago as an undefeated (27-0) world champion. Berto is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter, possesses the mobility to stalk Mayweather, and is a good ambush-style fighter when he is on his game.

Berto is a tough competitor who is known for high action fights. He'll likely be willing to exchange with Mayweather and take the risks necessary to pull off the upset, even if it means exposing himself to numerous clean Mayweather counterpunches and a possible loss by stoppage.

Berto won't win this fight by decision (i.e., by outboxing the supremely-skilled Mayweather); he'll almost surely have to win this fight by stopping Mayweather. But if Berto - who has the strength and hand speed to match Mayweather - can stay busy and apply brute pressure on Floyd, he is more than capable of landing one of his patented power shots (most notably his right uppercut) to change the course of a fight expected to be dictated by Mayweather. Berto does have a solid left jab which, if used effectively, can be used to set up additional lines of attack vs. a typically risk-averse, retreating Mayweather. Mayweather is obviously still an elite fighter, but - at 38 - he's several years past his prime and is not as mobile as he once was; Berto may be capable of staying in front of Mayweather and applying the pressure necessary to at least make Floyd uncomfortable (e.g., Marcos Maidana in his first fight with Floyd, Ricky Hatton in the early rounds of his fight with Floyd).

Berto's current trainer, Virgil Hunter, is an excellent motivator who will at minimum have Berto mentally prepared to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in boxing history.

Prefight Analysis

Honestly, I don't see Berto being competitive in this fight. Yes, he has a "puncher's chance," but so did Pacquiao, Maidana, Canelo, and many of the other fighters Mayweather has fought over the past decade or so. But they all lost. And Berto - especially at this point in his career with the injuries and being 3-3 in his last 6 fights - isn't as good as *any* of the those other boxers Mayweather has fought over the past ten years.

Berto is literally a handpicked opponent for Mayweather in a fight that Mayweather is promoting as his last fight. Mayweather is, by a very wide margin, the more skilled, experienced fighter who possesses both the length and foot speed to stay out of range vs. Berto's inevitable pressure and the accuracy to punish the defensively deficient Berto with counterpunching over the entirety of the fight.

Unless Berto catches Mayweather with something early I don't see him being competitive, as he certainly won't outbox Floyd over 12 rounds; he doesn't cut the ring off as well as other pressure fighters who've fought Floyd like Maidana and Cotto, who at least had some limited success pressuring him in spots.

In my opinion, the only question in tonight's fight is whether Mayweather wins the fight by decision or by stoppage. There has been a lot of talk from boxing analysts - and even some from Mayweather himself - of Floyd going out with a stoppage victory in what is purportedly his last fight. But Mayweather has promised excitement and possible stoppages in previous recent fights only to resort to the risk-averse, defensive style that has served him well for most of his career.

The fact of the matter is, Mayweather is 38 years old and, other than a cheap (though perfectly legal) shot vs. Victor Ortiz four years ago when Ortiz had his guard down, Mayweather hasn't stopped anyone in nearly eight years. Mayweather is also a relatively low-volume puncher with notoriously brittle hands who is facing a guy in Berto who is actually bigger and stronger than he is.

Yes, a Mayweather victory by TKO/KO is possible due to the wide skill disparity in this matchup and Berto's defensive inadequacies, but I think given Mayweather's history of fighting conservatively and not exposing himself to significant risk, there is much more value in betting on Mayweather to win by (wide) decision.

Depending on the prices you can find, I feel that the best bet on this fight is Mayweather by unanimous decision, followed by Mayweather by 12-round decision. (I bet Mayweather by unanimous decision yesterday on 5Dimes at -145 but feel this bet actually has solid value up to -200.)

Prediction: Mayweather by unanimous decision (1 unit)

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Jack vs. Groves: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Super Middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV (Mayweather vs. Berto undercard)
Line: Jack +115, Groves -135 (5 Dimes, 9/8/15)
Purse: Jack: $500,000, Groves: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Jack: #6 ranked super middleweight, Groves: #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Jack: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Groves opened in early August as the -180 favorite, with Jack as the +150 underdog. Public betting has since trended in favor of Jack - likely because he is coming off the best win of his career in winning a super middleweight title as a 4-1 underdog vs. then undefeated champion Anthony Dirrell and also probably because he is the more well-known name to the American betting public, fighting numerous times on Showtime under #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s boxing promotional firm, Mayweather Promotions. Groves is currently now only a -135 favorite, with Jack being only a +115 underdog.

Why Badou Jack will win

Jack is the current WBC World Super Middleweight champion. Jack is high in confidence after his last fight in April, a solid majority decision victory over then undefeated and WBC World Super Middleweight champion Anthony Dirrell. The victory was one of the better performances of Jack's career and is a strong sign Jack has fully recovered from his embarrassing 1st round TKO loss last year vs. journeyman Derek Edwards, who was a 14-1 underdog going into the fight. (The loss was the first and only loss of Jack's career.)

Jack has looked good in recent fights while Groves hasn't looked the same (in particular on the defensive end) since his two recent TKO losses to Carl Froch, looking less than impressive in his wins vs. relatively unknown journeymen Christopher Rebrasse and Denis Douglin.

Jack is a durable fighter while Groves has faded in the later rounds of some of his recent fights, including his two fights vs. Froch and his September 2014 fight vs. Rebrasse; Jack could conceivably outwork a tired Groves in the middle to later rounds in this fight similar to the way he outworked Dirrell in the later rounds of his most recent fight.

Jack is a solid, come-forward fighter with decent power. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks which will be key vs. an aggressive - and at times defensively irresponsible - Groves.

Lastly, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he's promoted by Floyd Mayweather under Floyd's Mayweather Promotions banner and is arguably the best fighter promoted by Mayweather. Mayweather Promotions is promoting most of the featured fighters on the Mayweather/Berto undercard and I'd expect the close fights on the undercard to be at least slightly biased in favor fighters promoted by Mayweather. Jack also currently resides in and fights out of Las Vegas, while this is only Groves' third fight in the United States.

Why George Groves will win

Groves is the better boxer. Groves has the superior technical skills, power, hand and foot speed, overall athleticism, and is the more talented fighter. Groves is a classic boxer-puncher with notable power in both hands, knocking his opponents out at a 76% TKO/KO rate; Jack suffered a 1st round TKO loss just last year to a lesser skilled opponent with less power. Jack doesn't move particularly well and has a questionable chin; given the TKO loss to Edwards, losing by TKO/KO to Groves is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Despite being the younger fighter (by 4 years), the 27-year old Groves has a significant advantage in big fight experience over Jack, having fought top-level fighters such as Carl Froch (twice), James DeGale, and Glen Johnson. In May 2011, Groves beat current IBF Super Middleweight champion and former 2008 Olympic gold medalist DeGale by majority decision in the most impressive victory of his career. (This remains the only loss of DeGale's career.) By comparison, the only top-level fighter on Jack's resume is Anthony Dirrell.

Groves's two TKO losses to Carl Froch are the only losses of his career. Both were losses where Groves was arguably outboxing Froch before getting stopped in the later rounds. Jack doesn't have nearly the KO power Froch had so likely isn't a threat to KO Groves late like Froch did.

Prefight Analysis

Groves hasn't looked as good as expected in his recent fights since his two TKO losses to Froch, employing a more high-volume, aggressive strategy which allowed him to get countered cleanly in spots vs. much lesser fighters. A similar high punch volume strategy may not work vs. Jack - a strong, solid fighter who throws counter hooks well and possesses a good scoring jab which he may use in combination with his slight length advantage to control distance. Jack is a confident fighter riding high off the best win of his career last April vs. Dirrell. He's a more durable fighter than Groves (who has a history of waning in the later rounds) and I think there's a decent change that, in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas, he scores an upset victory by outworking Groves in the middle and later rounds the same way he outworked Dirrell after trailing on the scorecards early in that fight.

With this said, I think too many practical factors favor Groves to not to pick him to win the fight. Groves is the more talented fighter with the better skills, power, hand speed, and foot movement. He is the more experienced fighter who has fought on the big stage before (including in front of approximately 80,000 people at Wembley Stadium in his 2nd fight with Froch) vs. top-level opponents. Groves has previously defeated more accomplished opponents than Jack, namely James DeGale, a former Olympic gold medalist who has top 10-15 pound-for-pound talent. Groves, a good power puncher with a 76% TKO/KO rate, has the power to hurt a relatively flat-footed Jack early, and I think there is a reasonable chance he could win this fight by stoppage.

I think that despite Groves's recent unimpressive performances vs. lesser opponents and Jack's recent title victory momentum, Groves's clear skill and experience advantages should carry him to victory vs. Jack in the main event of the Mayweather/Berto undercard. Jack has never fought an opponent with Groves's combination of talent, skill, and power and I think this will show under the pressure of the big stage in Vegas. Groves is highly capable of winning this fight by stoppage  (likely early as opposed to late), though I think there is also a good chance he wins this fight by decision; so I think Groves simply to win at -135 is the best bet in this matchup.

Prediction: Groves to win (1 unit)

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Santa Cruz vs. Mares: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (30-0-1, 17 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (29-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: August 29, 2015
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Santa Cruz -230, Mares +190 (5 Dimes, 8/29/15)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $1.25 million, Mares: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #2 ranked junior featherweight, Mares: #4 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Santa Cruz
Negatives for Santa Cruz
Positives for Mares
Negatives for Mares
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Santa Cruz

• Undefeated boxer (30-0-1) who is the former IBF Bantamweight (122 lbs) and current WBC Super Bantamweight (126 lbs) champion. Hyper-aggressive, relentless puncher who - per CompuBox stats - both throws and lands more punches than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer.   
• Come-forward pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with an accumulation of punches thrown from a wide array of angles. But despite his high activity is a surprisingly accurate and efficient fighter; often throws over 100 punches in a round and lands around 40 percent of those punches, a percentage which - per CompuBox stats - ranks third behind only Floyd Mayweather and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Adept at setting opponents up with the jab in early rounds to set-up rapid multi-punch flurries in later rounds as his opponents tire. 
• Technically sound boxer with a fairly good high guard defense; per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz opponents only land approximately 25 percent of their punches. Has also shown a very good chin thus far in his career, having only been knocked down once in 31 professional fights (knocked down in the 4th round of his August 2009 fight vs. Robert DaLuz, a fight he won by unanimous decision). Has a better chin and better defensive skills than Mares, which will come into play if this fight turns into a brawl.
• Has excellent stamina; despite throwing more punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer, Santa Cruz doesn't seem to tire. Fights with as much energy in middle to late rounds as he does in early rounds.
• Relatively tall fighter for this weight class (5'7") and will come into this fight vs. Mares as the taller (3" height advantage) and likely slightly larger fighter in size. Relatively long-limbed fighter (69" reach) who will also have a 3" reach advantage so may be able to keep Mares, a specialist at fighting inside, at arm's length with his jab if needed.
• Mares is the more proven, experienced fighter but Santa Cruz is actually considered the "A-side" fighter in this matchup, considering that Santa Cruz has gotten more of the press attention and his name is getting top billing for the fight. Both Mares and Santa Cruz are managed by Al Haymon and his Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) promotional company but Haymon and PBC appear to be mainly promoting Santa Cruz as a potential future superstar in the sport. As the more "politically connected" fighter, there is a greater chance of Santa Cruz getting the decision in a close fight - even if Mares turns in the slightly better performance.
• Is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Looking to gain the first marquee win of his career by defeating Mares.

Negatives for Santa Cruz

• Santa Cruz is a largely untested fighter who has fought questionable competition over the course of his career. Most notable wins came vs. relatively unknown Christian Mijares, Victor Terrazas, and Eric Morel - all former world champions but were arguably past their prime at the time they fought Santa Cruz. How will Santa Cruz fare in his first fight vs. a true top-level opponent in Mares? Mares comes into this fight with a clear advantage in both experience and quality of competition.
• Santa Cruz is the taller, naturally bigger fighter but will be fighting in only his 2nd fight as a featherweight, having just moved up from junior featherweight earlier this year. Mares has fought five fights at featherweight over the past two years and has won a world title at this weight class. 
• Mares is the technically superior fighter whose lone loss came via 1st round KO vs. a boxer with legitimate one-punch KO power (Jhonny Gonzalez). Santa Cruz - a volume puncher - does not have elite punching power, with only 17 of his 30 wins coming by TKO/KO. To win this fight, Santa Cruz will likely have to overwhelm Mares with an accumulation of punches as he does not have the power to change the course of the fight with one punch the same way Gonzalez did.
• Santa Cruz's high guard defense, while fairly effective, leaves him susceptible to body punching, something which Mares excels at. Santa Cruz's height advantage and propensity to fight on the inside may also work against him here as shorter fighters (as Mares is in this matchup) generally have more success to the body when fighting inside. 
• Although having a better chin and better defense than Mares, Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter who will inevitably get hit in his attempts to apply pressure. How will Santa Cruz's defense hold up vs. Mares, a more skilled, mobile fighter who can beat Santa Cruz to the punch with his faster hands? 
• Santa Cruz is used to controlling the tempo and applying pressure in his fights as he comes forward; in this fight he will (for the first time in his career) be facing another highly-skilled, former pound-for-pond ranked pressure fighter who may force him at times to fight off his back foot. How will Santa Cruz fare if Mares is successful pressuring him backwards towards the ropes? In previous fights, Santa Cruz has appeared uncomfortable when fighting off his back foot.

Positives for Mares

• Former IBF Bantamweight, WBC Super Bantamweight, and WBC Featherweight champion. Aggressive brawler with good boxing skills who just two years ago was undefeated and ranked #5 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list before a 1st round KO loss to Jhonny Gonzales. Represented Mexico at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
• Like Santa Cruz, is a high-volume pressure fighter, but is more versatile and has better boxing skills. Rough, physical fighter who is a very good body puncher and adept at brawling from the inside (including the use of questionably dirty veteran tricks) but has the ability to adjust and box from the outside if necessary (as shown in his 2nd fight vs. Joseph Agbeko). Is particularly effective with his jab and left hook.  
• Compared to Santa Cruz is the more established world-class fighter with a significant advantage in experience. Within the past five years has fought - and beaten - former world champions such as Vic Darchinyan, Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno, and Daniel Ponce De Leon. Lone loss was a 1st-round KO loss to power puncher Jhonny Gonzalez (for whom Mares used to be a sparring partner years ago) in August 2013; Mares is 3-0 since that KO loss. Mares is also the more experienced fighter at featherweight (this will only be Santa Cruz's 2nd fight at featherweight).
• Mares is the more talented, skilled boxer with better punching power and slightly quicker hands. Is also the more mobile figher who appears to be much more capable of fighting off his back foot (e.g., when being pressured). Mares is 3 inches shorter than Santa Cruz but his shorter height may be to his advantage if the fight turns into an inside brawl as many expect. (Shorter fighters have easier access to the body - particularly vs. a high guard defense like the one Santa Cruz has - and Mares is a very skilled body puncher.) 
• Other than the KO loss to Gonzalez, Mares has generally shown a good chin throughout his career. Other than the Gonzalez fight, Mares has only been knocked down once in his career - in the 2nd round of a December 2010 split-decision victory vs. former Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter and 3-division world champion Darchinyan.

Negatives for Mares

• Mares's most memorable fight was the 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez; Mares is 3-0 in the two years since that loss but all 3 wins were fairly unimpressive wins vs. lower quality opponents. Mares does not appear to be the same pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was prior to the loss to Gonzalez so unclear how we will perform stepping back up to face a higher quality opponent in Santa Cruz, who is arguably the toughest opponent to date in his career. Fighters are often more timid and cautious after suffering brutal KO losses, which appears to be the case with Mares.     
• As an inside pressure fighter Mares is highly susceptible to clean counter punching; statistically, Santa Cruz throws and lands more punches than anyone in boxing (and does so at a high connect percentage even going into middle and later rounds) so can easily see Mares wearing down vs. Santa Cruz's avalanche of punches as the fight progresses. Santa Cruz will inevitably have stretches of success landing vs. Mares - the question is how well Mares can withstand Santa Cruz's relentless attack. 
• Is considered by some to be one of the dirtiest fighters in boxing (if not the dirtiest fighter). Has been guilty of landing multiple low blows in fights, most notably in his 1st fight vs. Agbeko (a fight where many felt he should have been disqualified), as well as his fights vs. Darchinyan and Moreno. Mares has suffered point deductions in previous fights due to dirty tactics and will be prone to getting deducted points in tonight's fight vs. Santa Cruz, especially considering that Santa Cruz is a taller fighter who will be looking to fight inside vs. Mares. 
• Mares has more power than Santa Cruz but, like Santa Cruz, is not a big KO puncher; only 15 of Mares's 29 wins came via TKO/KO. If Mares is going to win this fight, it's very likely he'll have to win a decision.

Prefight Summary

There is a pretty good argument that most of the metrics for this fight favor Abner Mares. Mares is after all by far the more experienced boxer, having beaten a string of tough reigning or former world champions  over the course of a 2.5 year span to become a 3-division world champion and at one time a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. (Santa Cruz by comparison is notably unproven; tonight will be the first test in his career vs. a top-level opponent.)

Mares is also generally considered the more talented, skilled boxer with slightly greater punching power, quicker hands, and better foot movement. In reviewing previous fights, Mares appears to be a more savvy ring general than the sometimes mechanical Santa Cruz and is a particularly savvy fighter brawling from the inside, where many expect much of the action in this fight to take place. As mentioned previously, Mares's shorter height may prove to be a key advantage when he goes to the body vs. the taller Santa Cruz who, with his high guard defense, will leave his body exposed in spots. Mares is a veteran brawler with many tricks (both clean and a bit dirty) up his sleeve; while I don't think he has the punching power to beat the more durable, less battle-worn Santa Cruz by TKO/KO, I would not at all be surprised if he outboxes Santa Cruz en route to a decision victory.

But Mares hasn't looked impressive in his last 3 fights vs. B and C-level competition (despite having a 3-0 record in those 3 fights) and, at the end of the day, I don't see him withstanding Santa Cruz's relentless pressure and prolific work rate over the course of a 12-round fight that is likely to be more of a brawl than a boxing match. In this specific matchup I see Santa Cruz's energy and unmatched activity overwhelming Mares's skill and slight power and speed advantages, especially considering Mares's skills appear to have diminished a bit since his KO loss to Gonzalez. Mares, a defensively-lacking pressure fighter, will be right in front of Santa Cruz for much of the night and I don't like his chances vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume punch rate. Santa Cruz is the less experienced, less proven fighter in this matchup for sure but he has shown very good skill and surprising (given the number of punches he throws) accuracy in recent fights and appears more than ready for the step up to face higher-level opposition like Mares. Although fighting lesser-skilled opponents, Santa Cruz has generally looked impressive in recent fights while Mares - a brawler who has been in a lot of wars in recent years - hasn't looked quite the same since his 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez two years ago.

Despite perhaps still being the more skilled boxer with quicker hands, I don't think even an aggressive pressure fighter like Mares will have the punch output necessary to match Santa Cruz, whose work rate and stamina I think will largely stymie Mares's typically high-volume attack over the course of 12 rounds. I think Mares's loss to Gonzalez was the beginning of the end for Mares as a top-level boxer and that this fight will reveal further how his previously very highly regarded offensive skills have diminished.

I see Santa Cruz outworking Mares as the fight progresses (i.e., as Mares tires from foot movement and the accumulation of Santa Cruz punches) en route to a clear but competitive decision victory, with perhaps even an outside chance at a stoppage by Santa Cruz in the later rounds. Sorry to say but I also think that if this fight is close (which is a good possibility), even to the point of Mares slightly outboxing Santa Cruz, there is a good chance that the more "politically connected" fighter in Santa Cruz will be granted a controversial decision, especially considering that it will be tough for judges to overlook Santa Cruz's energy and high activity even if all the punches aren't landing.

So I like Santa Cruz's punch volume and durability over Mares's advantages in skill, power, and speed, especially when you consider that Mares's skills appear to have diminished in recent fights.

In any case, this is a classic matchup of two Mexican brawlers (think Barrera vs. Morales, Marquez vs.Vazquez, Corrales vs. Castillo, though Corrales was only half-Mexican) that has all the makings of a strong fight of the year candidate. On paper this is the best matchup PBC has offered in the nearly six months they've been broadcasting fights and I'm excited and intrigued to see how tonight's fight plays out!!! 

Prediction: Santa Cruz to win 

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Cotto vs. Geale: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (39-4, 32 KOs) vs. Daniel Geale (31-3, 16 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Cotto: -620, Geale: +515 (5 Dimes, 6/6/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion; Geale: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Geale: Orthodox


Positives for Cotto
Negatives for Cotto
Positives for Geale
Negatives for Geale
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Cotto

• Current WBC and Ring Magazine champion in the middleweight (160 lbs) division. Future hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, light middleweight, and middleweight). One of the best boxers of this generation.
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Stocky, physically strong boxer who pressures well to the body; Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in boxing. Has good power in both hands - especially his left - and throws combination punches very well. Has a deceptively powerful, accurate lead jab. Cotto has won 32 of his 43 fights by TKO/KO, a higher career TKO/KO percentage (74.4%) than current notable heavy punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, and Carl Froch. Cotto's last five wins have been by TKO/KO.
• Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from inside if needed. Naturally left-handed fighter who mostly fights from the orthodox position, but is capable at fighting from southpaw stance as needed. (Is adept at adjusting his range and stance based on his opponent.) 
• Technically sound fighter who will possess a speed, skill, and power advantage vs. Geale.
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. In his most recent fight (June 2014), upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Sergio Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had lost only one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Barclays Center as the official kickoff event for National Puerto Rican Day parade week. Cotto is 9-1 when fighting in New York City, including 5-0 the week of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 7-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history. After two consecutive losses in 2012 and contemplating retirement, has rejuvenated his career (and confidence) since hiring Roach with two straight TKO victories and earning his first middleweight championship. 

Negatives for Cotto

• Cotto is 34 years old and hasn't fought in nearly a year; how will the long layoff affect his performance? Although he has resurrected his career  with a couple of nice victories, he's not the elite pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was in his prime. (Cotto's power and speed have declined a bit over the past few years.)
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Cotto often neglects head movement, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. If a rugged, high volume middleweight like Geale has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be much closer than expected.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for only the second time in his career vs. one of the best middleweights in the world in Daniel Geale, who will come into this fight with significant advantages in size, reach, and height. Cotto beat one of the best middleweights in boxing history in his most recent fight vs. Martinez but how good was his win vs. Martinez? At the time, Martinez was a 39-year old fighter well past his prime with a debilitating knee injury that clearly affected his performance (and will lead to a probable retirement in the near future). How will Cotto, who spent the majority of his career at light welterweight (140lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) fare vs. a younger, healthier, more durable opponent who will likely enter the ring at over 170 lbs on fight night? I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotto have problems with Geale's combination of toughness, size, reach, and skill.    
• Cotto is a battle-worn fighter who has been through numerous wars and has at times been tested vs. bigger fighters with good boxing skills. In front of a largely pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden, Cotto lost a clear unanimous decision to Austin Trout in December 2012. He won a close split decision victory vs. Joshua Clottey in June 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. Geale is a bigger, highly-ranked contender that is comparable to Trout and Clottey in both skill and reach advantage.
• Cotto gets cut easily due to the scar tissue above both his eyes. If the larger, high volume puncher Geale stays busy and gets Cotto's face bleeding in the early or mid rounds the blood could certainly negatively affect Cotto's performance (as well as boost Geale's confidence).
• Cotto has shown questionable stamina in the past, having a tendency to tire later in fights - most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. Cotto also noticeably tired in the later rounds in his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, losing all of the later rounds in both fights and getting stopped by Pacquiao in the 12th round of their fight.

Positives for Geale

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight fighter. Three-time former middleweight champion who has been ranked among Ring Magazine's top 5 middleweights since 2010. Solid high-volume, come-forward fighter with good foot movement for his size.  
• Experienced, gritty fighter with an effective jab from range but is also more than willing to stay in the pocket and exchange inside. Throws overhand rights and hooks well behind his jab. Is a good body puncher with solid overall boxing skills. 
• Geale has only lost three times in 34 career fights with two of the losses by highly competitive, controversial split decisions (August 2013 loss to Darren Barker and May 2009 loss to Anthony Mundine). Has fought and beaten solid competition, including a split decision victory vs. then middleweight champion Felix Sturm in Sturm's home country of Germany and a unanimous decision victory in his rematch with Mundine in Mundine's home city of Sydney, Australia. 
• Unlike Cotto, is a true middleweight and will come into this fight as the larger man with a 3" height advantage and 4" reach advantage. May weigh up to 175 lbs on fight night, which will likely give him a 10-15 pound advantage vs. Cotto. Cotto has had trouble in some previous fights vs. larger, longer fighters with good movement (most notably his December 2012 loss vs. Trout). 
• Is a durable fighter with a fairly good chin and pretty good head movement. Geale's only loss by TKO/KO was to Gennady Golovkin, the current Ring Magazine #4 pound-for-pound boxer who holds the highest TKO/KO percentage in middleweight boxing history (90.9%). Despite the TKO/KO loss, Geale exchanged effectively at times and at times made Golovkin miss punches wildly with his movement. Other than the loss to Golovkin, Geale has never come close to being stopped.
• Has good stamina, which could come into play vs. Cotto, who has a history of tiring in later rounds.
• Generally unflappable fighter who has experience beating heavily favored opponents in front of hostile crowds (see his upset victory vs. then middleweight champion Sturm, who had a 14-fight unbeaten streak before losing to Geale). 

Negatives for Geale

• Geale is an over 5-1 underdog for a reason. He is the technically inferior fighter and will also have a power and speed disadvantage vs. Cotto. Geale is coming from another continent to fight in front of a hostile, pro-Cotto fight on the biggest stage of his career vs. the much more experienced Cotto, who is used to the big stage. Cotto lost in December 2012 to a larger, similarly skilled opponent to Geale in Trout but Trout was a southpaw with quicker movement than Geale; it will be tough for Geale to overcome Cotto's speed advantage.  
• Cotto is defensively flawed but Geale is not a big puncher (only 16 wins by TKO/KO in 34 fights) so likely isn't a serious threat to exploit Cotto's flaws and stop or hurt Cotto badly.   
• Despite being a middleweight (160 lbs) title fight, the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs which required Geale, a natural middleweight, to cut more weight than usual - which he reportedly had trouble doing. Athletes (especially boxers who generally have a low body fat percentage to begin with) cutting weight below their natural size often leads to dehydration and muscle loss, which could affect Geale's stamina and overall performance in tonight's fight.  
• Like Cotto, Geale has his share of defensive deficiencies. Often drops his hands and can be slow to put up his guard after throwing punches, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also doesn't protect his body well; Geale is a competent fighter in the pocket but against a great body puncher like Cotto will probably take the worst of exchanges on the inside, where Cotto's shorter height and short punches are actually an advantage vs. a taller boxer like Geale.
• Geale is a durable fighter with an above average chin but he has been knocked down in at least five fights in his career, including twice in last year's TKO loss to Golovkin.

Prefight Summary


If you believe Cotto's surprising TKO victory last year vs. Sergio Martinez was an impressive win vs. a sufficiently able-bodied, top 10 pound-for-pound all-time great middleweight then you have little reason to believe tonight's fight vs. a lesser opponent in Geale will result in anything other than a wide unanimous decision or stoppage for Cotto. Cotto is the more experienced, skilled fighter with the power and speed advantage facing a fighter who - while bigger than he is - doesn't have much punching power and has defensive flaws that will leave him susceptible to Cotto's vicious body attack. While Geale has good movement, he is by nature often more than willing to stay in the pocket and trade punches, which will likely be to his detriment vs. the quicker, more accurate Cotto who is one of the best body punchers in the sport. If you believe this version of Cotto, who has been dominant in his last two fights since switching to trainer Freddie Roach a couple years ago, is a reincarnation of prime Miguel Cotto then there's little reason to think this will be a difficult fight for him,  

But I think Cotto is being overvalued, while Geale is being undervalued coming into this fight. The reality is Cotto is past his prime and coming off a year-long layoff after beating a 39-year old fighter in Martinez who came into the fight with a debilitating knee issue. While Cotto looked good in the fight, it was clear Martinez was severely limited due to the knee injury and even then Cotto was unable to stop Sergio until the 10th round after knocking him down three times way back in the 1st round. Cotto has fought better in his last couple of fights after the consecutive losses to Mayweather and Trout in 2012 (which left him contemplating retirement), but the reality is he does not have the same power or speed at 34 years old that made him an elite fighter in his prime.

Geale is being undervalued largely due to relative lack of name recognition and Golovkin making him look like a journeyman in his dominant 3rd round TKO victory over Geale last year (most thought Geale would put up a better fight), but the reality is Geale has been a highly regarded, top-ranked middleweight for many years. The fight with Golovkin is the only fight of Geale's career where he's been stopped; other than Golovkin, Geale's only other losses were controversial split-decision losses vs. very solid opponents in Anthony Mundine and Darren Barker.

I actually think Geale has a realistic chance to win this fight. He is a tough, savvy veteran with good foot movement who should be able to use his size and reach advantage to frustrate the defensively flawed Cotto in spots. Geale is volume puncher with an effective jab and follows up with punches behind his jab (in particular his overhand right and left hook) well. If Geale can be effective with his punch combinations and cut Cotto early (Cotto has a history of bleeding easily due mostly to the scar tissue above his eyes) the fight could potentially get interesting - especially in the later rounds where Cotto is known to tire. With his reach advantage, volume punching, and movement, Geale has the skills to box with Cotto from range but also has the size and toughness to outmuscle the quicker but smaller Cotto inside.

While I feel this is a winnable fight for Geale, I think Cotto's top-level skill, heavy-handed body punching, and speed will be too much for Geale, whose (lack of) power poses little threat as a counter for Cotto's attack. Despite Geale's reach advantage and ability to move on his feet, Cotto is faster and should be able to get inside on Geale to land the effective shots necessary to earn a competitive but clear decision victory in front of what will be a Cotto-friendly crowd at Barclays. Cotto's last five victories have actually come via TKO but Cotto, especially at this stage of his career, is no Golovkin - I don't see him knocking out a true middleweight (who will likely outweight him by 10-15 lbs by the time of the fight) who is durable and moves as well as Geale.

With this said, I do think Geale's size, movement, and reach make the current 7-1 odds for Geale to win the fight by 12-round decision a good value bet so I strongly recommend this play as a smaller hedge with Cotto by 12-round decision at 1.4-1 odds as the primary bet (both bets are available at 5 Dimes). For example if risking $100 on Cotto to win the by decision, I would hedge the play with a $10-15 bet on Geale to win by decision at 7-1 to cover any potential losses from the Cotto bet.

Either way I think this will be a good fight that will go the distance so a simpler, less risky alternative play would be to bet that the fight goes the distance (currently -120 at 5 Dimes).

Final thought is to be aware that two key questions make this fight somewhat risky to bet: 1) How will a 34-year old Cotto perform after a one-year layoff from fighting? and 2) How will the 157 lb catchweight affect Geale, who apparently struggled to make weight and hasn't fought below 160 lbs in years?

Prediction: Cotto by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Geale by decision (+714)]

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Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 2, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, WBO, and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: HBO and Showtime PPV (joint venture)
Line: Mayweather: -190, Pacquiao: +175 (5 Dimes, 5/2/15)
Estimated Earnings: Mayweather: $180 million, Pacquiao: $120 million (based on 60/40 split of estimated $300 million in revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion and junior middleweight champion; Pacquiao: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Pacquiao: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Mayweather
Negatives for Mayweather
Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered one of the top two boxers - if not the top boxer - of this generation. Has won 10 world titles across 5 weight divisions. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (47-0 record). Current WBC, WBA, and Ring Magazine welterweight (147 lbs) champion, and WBC Super, WBA, and Ring Magazine junior middleweight (154 lbs) champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive techniques make him very difficult to hit cleanly. Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather opponents land the 2nd lowest percentage of punches of all CompuBox-tracked boxers.  (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.)
• Possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands a higher % of punches thrown than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Patient counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. As great as Pacquiao's speed is, Floyd actually has superior hand and foot speed which should result in success in evading Pacquiao's power and beating Pacquiao to the punch when necessary. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Savvy, crafty fighter who is highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Will have a clear advantage vs. Pacquiao in terms of both ring IQ and technical skill.  
• Experienced veteran fighting in his 25th world title fight (over half the fights in his career have been world title fights). The majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past eight years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the last two fights vs. Marcos Maidana, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Mayweather is usually the smaller man in the fight but will come into this fight vs. Pacquiao as the naturally bigger man. Will also have a significant (5") reach advantage which, when combined with his excellent foot movement, will make it difficult for Pacquiao to land punches consistently.
• Has an excellent chin. Has only officially been knocked down once in his career, a May 2001 fight vs. Carlos Hernandez where he took a knee in pain after breaking his left hand (due to a left hook which hit Hernandez's elbow). Has been hit flush by power punchers (most notably vs. Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Maidana) but always recovered to take control and dominate the remainder of the fight.
• Mayweather's power isn't great, particularly at welterweight, but is underrated. Mayweather does have 26 wins by TKO/KO in his career and opponents generally respect Mayweather's power due to the accuracy with which he lands punches. 
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Highly effective at using veteran tricks on the inside (e.g., timely use of his forearms and elbows to push opponents off) to create space while simultaneously landing clean punches. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Even at 38 years old is still in great shape and possesses excellent stamina; fights with as much energy in the later rounds of fights as the early rounds. Generally dominates the middle and later rounds of fights as his opponents tire.
• Two of the judges in the fight - Burt Clements and Dave Moretti - have judged multiple Mayweather fights in the past and generally turned in Mayweather-friendly scorecards. For example, Clements and Moretti scored the 1st Maidana fight 117-111 and 116-112 respectively for Mayweather while the third judge had the fight a draw. In the Mayweather vs. Hatton fight (December 2007), Clements and Moretti both had the fight scored 89-81 at the time of stoppage for Mayweather (giving Hatton only one of the first eight rounds), which was wider than most ring observers scored the fight. 
• For this fight Mayweather is working with noted strength coaches Alex Ariza (the former longtime strength and conditioning coach of Pacquiao) and Memo Heredia (the strength coach credited for increasing Juan Manuel Marquez's strength prior to his December 2012 KO victory of Pacquiao). It appears Mayweather is making a concerted effort to increase his strength for this fight, which certainly poses a threat to the at times defensively susceptible Pacquiao.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 38 years old - several years past his prime - and doesn't have quite the power, speed, or legs he had when he was younger (though his power and speed actually haven't slipped as much as many think). In two out of Mayweather's last three fights (1st fight vs. Maidana and his September 2013 fight vs. Canelo Alvarez), one of the three judges scored the fight a draw. Both of Mayweather's recent fights vs. Maidana - in particular the 1st fight - were competitive fights, among the closest fights he's had since his controversial victory vs. Jose Luis Castillo in April 2002. Pacquiao is a more much more skilled, quicker, and faster opponent than Maidana so if Maidana was able to give Floyd problems, Pacquiao at minimum should have some stretches of success in the fight. 
• Mayweather has never fought a fighter with with Pacquiao's combination of unpredictability, power, and speed. There's a good chance Pacquiao's awkward punching angles and quick in and out movement will frustrate Mayweather, particularly in the early rounds as he tries to adjust to Pacquiao's tendencies. The last time Mayweather fought someone with speed comparable to Pacquiao (Judah in April 2006), he lost three out of the first four rounds of the fight. The last time Mayweather fought someone with both great power and footwork (Mosley), he was rocked multiple times in the early rounds with power shots. Mayweather will almost certainly have trouble in spots with Pacquiao's combination of good movement, power, and speed, especially considering that Pacquiao - like Mayweather - has excellent stamina and is unlikely to tire over the course of the 12 round fight.
• Mayweather is an efficient, but low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds (per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight), his fights vs. southpaws Judah and De La Hoya (where he arguably lost three out of the first four rounds in both fights), and vs. 9-1 underdog Robert Guerrero (where he arguably lost the first two rounds of the fight). Although Pacquiao has been a more cautious fighter as of late, I would expect Pacquiao to outwork Mayweather in the early rounds and wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao is leading by multiple rounds early.
• Mayweather's primary defensive technique, the shoulder roll from an orthodox stance, won't be as effective  vs. an aggressive southpaw so he likely won't use it as much as he would vs. an orthodox fighter - which should leave him more vulnerable to clean punching.
• Mayweather has underrated power but he hasn't knocked down an opponent in over 3.5 years (September 2011 KO victory vs. Victor Ortiz when he caught an unsuspecting Ortiz with what many thought was a cheap shot). Mayweather's issues with power are in part due to having notoriously brittle hands, both of which he's broken multiple times over the course of his career. Although Pacquiao sometimes overcommits and leaves himself open to clean counterpunching, it is unlikely Mayweather wins this fight by TKO/KO due to his lack of KO power.
• Although fighting in his resident city of Las Vegas and in the MGM Grand Garden arena where he has fought his last 10 fights, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Pacquiao, which should motivate Manny and could influence the judges' scoring. 

Positives for Pacquiao

• Current Ring Magazine #3 pound-for-pound fighter and WBO welterweight champion. Has won ten world titles across a record eight weight divisions. Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still unquestionably one of the elite fighters in the sport. Pacquiao still has much of the incredible hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Aggressive "in and out" ambush fighter who is adept at moving "in" on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using quickness and foot speed to move "out" of range before his opponents can counter. Highly skilled with the use of feints and other deceptive movements to keep his opponents off guard. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork; this will be the first time in Mayweather's career that he has fought an opponent with Pacquiao's unique combination of movement, power, and speed. Pacquiao has the speed and stamina to stay with the typically elusive Mayweather and the power from various angles to keep him frustrated and on the defensive throughout the fight.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in 5.5 years (9 fights - his last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has legitimate KO power in both hands. In his most recent fight, knocked down then undefeated and current WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri six times. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight. Pacquiao's key advantage vs. Mayweather will be his power and threat to hurt him at any moment of any round during the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters (e.g., Mayweather) to anticipate where the punches are coming from - especially given the speed at which the punches are thrown. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley and his most recent fight vs. Algieri. 
• Although he has adopted a more cautious style in recent fights, Pacquiao is still a come-forward, relatively high-volume fighter who will likely outwork and perhaps display more effective aggression vs. the efficient but low-volume Mayweather throughout stretches of the fight. While Mayweather has a quickness advantage and can be expected to beat Pacquiao to the punch with potshots, Pacquiao is more adept at putting together quick combinations, which could look more impressive to the judges even if all the punches don't land cleanly. Pacquiao has a relentlessness and killer instinct that Mayweather doesn't have which may benefit him on the final scorecards.  
• Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent side-to-side head and upper body movement movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly. As noted above, has become a more cautious fighter in recent fights (i.e., has shown increased discipline defensively and doesn't overcommit with punches as much as he used to) so may be tougher for Mayweather to land punches than many may think.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over the past few years? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his December 2012 fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight -  knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's November 2013 fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) And in his most recent fight vs. then undefeated world champion Algieri, Pacquiao thoroughly dominated in knocking Algieri down six times and winning arguably every round of the fight. 
• Highly experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Pacquiao is certainly at a disadvantage in terms of technical skill and ring IQ vs. Mayweather but is a bit underrated in this regard. 
• Like Mayweather, Pacquiao has excellent stamina - even well past his prime at 36 years old. Does not tire in the later rounds of fights. Five of Pacquiao's six knockdowns in his most recent fight vs. Algieri came past the 5th round and Pacquiao pulled away from. then undefeated and Ring Magazine #3-ranked Bradley in the later rounds after a fairly even first half of the fight.
• As noted above the MGM Grand Garden arena will be a pro-Pacquiao crowd; partisan crowds can sometimes unintentionally influence judges' scorecards.
• Like Mayweather has performed best in his biggest fights. Am unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big money PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 36 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last five fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (9 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers (e.g., Mayweather). 
• Pacquiao is coming into this fight vs. Mayweather as the naturally smaller, shorter man with a 5" reach disadvantage. Pacquiao has in the past dominated boxers larger and taller than him (Antonio Margarito, Oscar De La Hoya, etc.) but the larger, taller opponent with comparable speed, longer reach, and superior boxing technique he is facing in Mayweather will likely be a much tougher task.   
• Pacquiao has never fought a boxer with the speed, accuracy, or technical skill of Mayweather. The closest Pacquiao has come to fighting a boxer resembling Mayweather is Timothy Bradley, who beat Pacquiao in a highly controversial split decision in their first fight and was very competitive with Pacquiao in their rematch, particularly in the early rounds. Mayweather is faster, more accurate, more skilled, and has more punching power than Bradley so will almost certainly be a much tougher test for Manny.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Although primarily a counter puncher, Mayweather is known to sometimes turn into the aggressor and walk opponents down in the mid to later rounds once he's solved an opponent's timing (which he did with success most recently vs. the much bigger Canelo in their September 2013 fight).
• While Pacquiao's defense and ring IQ have improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style (where he at times overcommits to punches) often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his 2nd fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. Mayweather is one of the great defensive fighters in boxing history; if he can get through the early rounds not too far behind on the scorecards he's more than capable - as Marquez did in multiple fights vs. Pacquiao  - of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws and overwhelm Manny in the middle to later rounds.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Philippines when he's not boxing and, as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Philippines. Mayweather has appeared to be the more focused, serious fighter during training while Pacquiao is not always 100% focused due to outside distractions... it will be interesting to see if this plays into the outcome of tonight's fight. 

Prefight Summary

For many years I've thought this would be an easy fight for Mayweather. In Mayweather you have arguably the most dominant defensive fighter of all time - an elite technician with excellent speed and underrated power - vs. Pacquiao, an outstanding but at times overly aggressive fighter with flaws in some of boxing's basic fundamentals which include defensive holes a master boxer like Mayweather could exploit with little effort. If Marquez, a fighter Mayweather had no trouble with even after a nearly two-year layoff from the sport, could give Pacquiao all he could handle over the course of four fights (some would say Marquez won three or even all four fights) with effective counter punching and timing, then why wouldn't Mayweather - a bigger, stronger, quicker, and more skilled counter puncher than Marquez - be able to dominate Pacquiao the same way he did Marquez? Floyd's skills also compare very favorably to Erik Morales, who beat Pacquiao decisively in their first fight with accurate counter punching and timing.

But styles make fights. While not possessing the same overall counter punching skill as Mayweather, Marquez and Morales (and to some extent Tim Bradley in his competitive fights vs. Pacquiao) were *aggressive*, higher volume counter punchers who were willing to take risks vs, Pacquiao that Mayweather is likely not willing to take. Marquez was knocked down six times by Pacquiao over four fights before the payoff KO victory in the 6th round of their most  recent fight. Morales and Bradley had success counter punching in many spots due to a willingness to stand in and trade vs. Pacquiao's feared combination of speed and power. Albeit more skilled and likely more adept to counter Pacquiao's over-aggressiveness and defensive flaws, Mayweather is a low-risk, low punch volume counter puncher compared to Marquez, Morales, and Bradley. Mayweather is far less willing to stand in and exchange punches with Pacquiao - which could be to his detriment on the judges' final scorecards.

Pacquiao will likely be the aggressor in the early rounds, coming forward and throwing his usual straight lefts and combinations while the more cautious Mayweather lays back and tries to figure out Pacquiao's timing. Besides Zab Judah (who won three out of the first four rounds in his fight with Mayweather), Pacquiao is the only fighter Mayweather has fought with comparable speed to his own. Pacquiao's speed combined with his elite power and awkward punching style will likely frustrate Mayweather early, if not throughout the entire fight. There is a reasonable chance the aggressive, high punch volume Pacquiao will outwork Mayweather and make his combination flurries (whether they actually land cleanly or not) look good enough that the judges score the fight for Pacquiao. Note also that part of Mayweather's success in mid to late rounds is that his opponents often tire in the 2nd half of fights; this won't be the case with Pacquiao (given his excellent stamina) so we could see an entire 12-round fight of Manny throwing punches with the low-volume Mayweather on his back foot throwing little in return - a scenario which could very easily result in a clear decision victory for Pacquiao.

But at the end of the day I think Mayweather has too many advantages in this matchup for Pacquiao to overcome. Mayweather is the bigger, stronger, smarter fighter with the significant reach advantage, better foot movement, and overall superior skill. Pacquiao has always been able to overcome bigger, stronger fighters with his unique combination of power and speed but Floyd should largely be able to neutralize Pacquiao's strengths with his own speed, reach, and defensive skills. Like Marquez and Morales in their wins vs. Pacquiao, I see Mayweather developing a timing on Manny as the fight progresses; he will compel Pacquiao to become over-aggressive in spots and to overcommit with punches - which should provide Mayweather the opportunity to land clean counter punches. Once Mayweather figures Pacquiao out, Pacquiao will find it difficult to land punches; unlike Mayweather Manny doesn't have the skill to re-adjust to Mayweather's adjustments down the stretch. Pacquiao generally makes up for his deficiencies in technical skill (e.g., vs. technically sound fighters like Marquez) with superior speed and athleticism but these qualities will be of little avail in this fight vs. the faster, more athletic Mayweather.

If this fight comes down to a preference of styles (i.e., Pacquiao's high volume and aggression vs. Mayweather's efficient, accurate punching) one very important point to consider is that two of the judges in this fight - Dave Moretti and Burt Clements - have in previous Mayweather fights scored the fights wider than expected in favor of Mayweather, an indication that they may prefer his accuracy and precision over high-volume activity that may or may not land cleanly.

I do think this fight could go either way - especially if Mayweather is in front of Pacquiao more than expected and lets Pacquiao outwork him - but I think Mayweather will be able to neutralize Pacquiao's advantages in power and punching volume with accuracy and timing and by utilizing his clear physical advantages en route to a competitive but clear decision victory. If there does happen to be a knockout in this fight I think it's much more likely the KO punch comes from the more precise Mayweather than from Pacquiao, would be looking to knockout an opponent who has only been knocked down once in his nearly 20 year career.

In any case, we can only hope and pray this fight lives up to the unprecedented hype!!!
   

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

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Matthysse vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Lucas Matthysse (36-3-0-1, 34 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs)
Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, New York
Date: April 18, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO
Line: Matthysse -165, Provodnikov +155 (5 Dimes, 4/18/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Matthysse: #1 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov: #3 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Matthysse: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox



Positives for Matthysse
Negatives for Matthysse
Positives for Provodnikov
Negatives for Provodnikov
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Matthysse

• Former interim WBC light welterweight champion. Along with Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev considered one of the best power punchers in boxing and is considered by many to be the most feared power puncher in boxing fighting under 160 lbs. Has legitimate KO power in both hands; 34 out of his 36 victories have come by TKO/KO. Has one of the highest KO% in boxing at 85% (34 wins by TKO/KO out of 40 fights). Arguably one of the top 5 offensive fighters in the sport.
• Aggressive, come-forward pressure fighter but also has decent, underrated boxing skills. Good combination puncher who throws a wide variety of power punches (overhand rights, straight rights, left hooks) from different angles and punches effectively both to the head and to the body. Cuts off the ring very well (though vs. another pressure fighter like Provodnikov he likely won't need to cut off the ring much, if at all).
• Has lost only 3 fights in his career - a close but clear unanimous decision loss to current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia, and two highly controversial split decision losses to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (both Alexander and Judah were knocked down in those fights). These 3 losses were vs. faster, more technically skilled boxers; vs. Provodnikov Matthysse will have the advantage in technical skill and hand speed. Has beaten well-regarded former world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, and DeMarcus Corley - all by early/mid round TKO/KO.  
• Overall, is clearly a better boxer than Provodnikov - has superior technical skills, better foot movement, quicker hands, and higher boxing IQ. Will have a 3" reach advantage vs. Provodnikov and is the more accurate, precise, powerful puncher. 
• Has a decent (though perhaps not great) chin. Has been knocked down 3 times in his last 3 fights (the first 3 knockdowns of his career), but recovered well and never seemed to be in any trouble after getting knocked down.

Negatives for Matthysse

• Matthysse has shown a fairly good chin in the past but how will his chin hold up on Saturday vs. the most aggressive, relentless power puncher he's fought in his career? Matthysse was knocked down 3 times in recent fights vs. Danny Garcia and John Molina Jr. - neither of whom are nearly as aggressive or relentless as Provodnikov (though Molina has comparable power). There is a high risk Matthysse goes down again in this fight if he does not get to Provodnikov first - it will be interesting to see how Matthysse recovers if this happens.  
• Matthysse has possibly lost confidence since getting knocked down for the 1st time in his career in his September 2013 fight vs. Garcia (which was the first uncontroversial loss of his career) and has been knocked down two more times since then. Provodnikov is a fiercely determined fighter with seemingly indomitable will who has broken the confidence of top fighters (see his October 2013 fight vs. then WBO light welterweight champion Mike Alvarado).  
• Employs a fairly effective high guard defense but his aggressive, pressuring style often leaves him out of position and open to counter punching. Not a particularly fast or elusive boxer, so Provodnikov, who is also very effective at cutting off the ring, will have his opportunities to land clean power punches. 
• Can be outboxed - in particular vs. speedier, technically sound boxers who move well (see his losses vs. Judah, Alexander, and Garcia) though he comes into the fight vs. Provodnikov with a speed and skill advantage so this likely won't be an issue tonight. But Matthysse may not have the technical skill or chin to keep the high volume and effective pressure of Provodnikov at bay.
• Though in recent fights has improved his work rate in early rounds, Matthysse is known for being a slow starter. Provodnikov will relentlessly pressure Matthysse thoughout the entire 12 round fight so would not be a good idea to get down early on the scorecards in this matchup.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. High volume pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who cuts off the ring well and hits especially hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. In March 2013, knocked down Timothy Bradley - who has one of the best chins in boxing - for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight, a fight which Ring Magazine named fight of the year. Lost a close unanimous decision victory vs. then #3 pound-for-pound ranked Bradley, a fight some felt he won.
• Has lost only three times in his career - vs. Bradley, Chris Algieri (June 2014), and Mauricio Herrera (January 2011); all three losses were close, controversial decisions. Has defeated former world champions Jose Luis Castillo (most recent fight), Mike Alvarado, and DeMarcus Corley.
• Is known for having an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Is a gritty, relentless, durable fighter with excellent stamina. Won't tire in the later rounds of fights. In terms of pure aggression and power will likely give Matthysse the toughest test of his career.
• Trained for this fight with 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach, under whom he has improved considerably since he began training with him in 2012. (Though because Roach is training Manny Pacquiao for his May 2 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, Roach's assistant trainer Marvin Samodio will be the lead trainer for tonight's fight vs. Matthysse.) 
• Humble, likeable boxer from a small village in Siberia with tremendous inner strength and indomitable will to win. Physically tough but even greater mental toughness.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as sharp as Matthysse's, are somewhat underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Provodnikov comes into this fight having lost two out of his last four fights, his most recent at the hands of relatively unknown and inexperienced Algieri, who was as high as an 8-1 underdog. Provodnikov's two most recent wins were a 5th round TKO vs. a past prime Jose Luis Castillo in Russia and a 10th round victory vs. Alvarado, who has lost four out of his last five fights.
• How good is Provodnikov's chin? Provodnikov is noted for never having been knocked down or knocked out in his career but he's also never fought a true power puncher in his prime. Provodnikov's three losses (to Algieri, Bradley, and Herrera) have all been against opponents considered relatively feather-fisted. Freddie Roach admitted in interviews during and after the Bradley fight that he almost stopped the fight in the later rounds due to the accumulation of punches Provodnikov was taking; if Provodnikov was almost stopped vs. a light-fisted Bradley how will he fare vs. one of the best power punchers in the sport in Matthysse? The true strength of Provodnikov's chin will be tested in tonight's fight. 
• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his losses vs. Algieri and Bradley. In addition to having better boxing skills, Matthysse will have a hand speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's predictable come-forward approach combined with lack of speed and defensive fundamentals often makes him easy to hit. Provodnikov is more than willing to stand in front of his opponents and take punches to throw punches, which may not work well for him vs. a devastating power puncher like Matthysse, whose only losses have been vs. technically superior fighters who stayed outside of his punching range. 
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses, especially vs. an accurate power puncher like Matthysse.

Prefight Summary

I think this fight ultimately comes down to how well Provodnikov's chin handles Matthysse's massive punching power. Provodnikov certainly has a very real chance to win this fight. He cuts off the ring just as well - if not better than - Matthysse and will attack Lucas with a combination of relentless aggression and power the likes of which Matthysse has never seen before in his career. Matthysse is not nearly as mobile as Algieri or Bradley (who handed Provodnikov his most recent losses) so he will be forced quite often to stand toe-to-toe with Provodnikov and slug it out. In a brawl such as this, it is largely a matter of which boxer has the greatest punching power, willpower, and chin. Provodnikov I believe has advantages in two out of these three attributes (willpower and chin) so I think he'll have the advantage if, as many expect, this fight turns into an all-out brawl.


Furthermore, it is possible that Matthysse has lost a bit of confidence in both his chin and punching power since losing to Danny Garcia; in that fight (in which Matthysse was listed as a 1-3 favorite), he was knocked down for the first time in his career and it was the first time he failed to knock down or knock out an opponent in over four years (over a span of 14 fights). In the fight following the Garcia fight, Matthysse was surprisingly knocked down two more times by 9-1 underdog John Molina Jr., who has comparable power to Provodnikov, but is not nearly as high volume or aggressive a puncher. If Provodnikov can turn this fight into a brawl and his chin is as good as advertised, there is a very good chance he'll wear Matthysse down and win this fight by TKO/KO in the mid to late rounds.



But I think the key point in evaluating this fight is noting that Provodnikov, while credited for having a great chin, has never fought anyone with Matthysse's brute punching power before. I can't help but think back to Freddie Roach admitting during the fight vs. Bradley that he was close to stopping the fight due to the punishment Provodnikov was taking. Admittedly, Bradley has top-level hand speed so can get his punches and combinations off quicker than Matthysse but he is also notorious for being a light puncher, having only 12 KOs in 34 career fights. If Provodnikov was in danger of being stopped vs. a feather-fisted Tim Bradley, I can't help but think he will be in for a very long night vs. one of the most accurate and heavy-handed power punchers in the sport, a fighter who has taken 34 of his 36 career wins by TKO/KO.


Provodnikov's come-forward, aggressive style will frequently leave him open to clean power punching over the course of the fight. Matthysse's hand speed is a bit faster than Provodnikov's so I see his punches generally landing first (before Provodnikov has a chance to land his) and landing more accurately, given Provodnikov's tendency to throw wild punches. I think we may find that Provodnikov's chin isn't quite as unbreakable as people think after being tested tonight by one of the best power punchers in the sport. This fight will largely be a matter of who gets to who first; I like Matthysse's power vs. a relatively slow, defensively negligient Provodnikov and think he will display just enough boxing skill and movement to keep Ruslan's power at bay. If Matthysse doesn't stop Provodnikov late, I like Lucas to win a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory.


But either way this fight should be a wildly entertaining fight-of-the-year (if not decade) level match-up that every boxing fan, whether hardcore or casual, should look forward to watching!

Prediction: Matthysse to win 

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