Leo Santa Cruz vs. Aber Mares II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1, 19 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (31-2-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz: -570, Mares: +570 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purses: Santa Cruz: $1 million, Mares: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #1 ranked featherweight, Mares: #5 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Thomas Taylor

Why you should watch this fight

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares II is a rematch of a fight that exceeded the hype and was universally considered one of the best fights of 2015. The first fight was arguably a classic - one of the best fights the Premier Boxing Champions series has aired in their three years of existence. A rematch seems almost certain to please and be another fight-of-the-year candidate, especially given the classic style matchup between two elite Mexican brawlers which is expected to take place in front of an energetic, mostly Mexican-American/Mexican crowd in the heart of downtown Los Angeles.

Since beating (then undefeated) Carl Frampton for the WBA featherweight title (which avenged his own loss to Frampton in 2016, the only loss of his career), Santa Cruz has widely been considered the best featherweight in the world. This Saturday, Santa Cruz gives Mares a chance to avenge his loss in their first fight, a highly entertaining fight that ended in a close but clear majority decision victory for Santa Cruz.

After losing to Santa Cruz, Mares changed trainers, hiring the well-known Oxnard, California-based trainer Robert Garcia. Mares has looked impressive in his two fights under Garcia, winning the "regular" version of the WBA featherweight title in the process. Will Mares - who as recently as a few years ago Ring Magazine rated as high as the #5 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound -  make the necessary adjustments under Garcia to avenge his loss in 2015 vs. Santa Cruz? Or will Santa Cruz get the better of Mares again in the rematch and solidify his status as the best featherweight in the world?

The winner of Saturday's fight will have the opportunity for a unification superfight with WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. (who's already indicated he'd like to fight the winner of this matchup) or possibly fight WBO interim featherweight champion Carl Frampton, who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire (which would be particularly intriguing if Santa Cruz beats Mares, as it would set up a much-anticipated rubber match between the two fighters).

Prefight Analysis

Santa Cruz vs. Mares is for sure one of the better bets for 2018 Fight of the Year. This is one of those matchups that you can be almost certain will be a competitive, action-packed fight. But I do think the outcome of the fight may depend largely on Mares' approach to the fight - especially given that he's under a different trainer (Robert Garcia) than he was in his first matchup with Santa Cruz. If Mares stays aggressive, keeps the fight physical and at close range, and uses (admittedly borderline illegal) clinching effectively as he did in the first couple of rounds of his first fight vs. Santa Cruz and as he did for stretches of his last two fights vs. Jesus Cuellar and Andres Gutierrez, he has more than a reasonable chance to pull off the upset  - assuming his stamina holds up and he can sustain his aggressiveness through 12 rounds.

To accompany decent power, Mares - at 32 years old - still has quicker hand speed than Santa Cruz and has the technical skills to exploit Santa Cruz's 3" height advantage and high-guard defensive posture (which should provide the shorter Mares with ample opportunities to land clean body shots if he can stay at close range vs. Santa Cruz).

Both Santa Cruz and Mares are high-volume pressure fighters but Mares is more adept at using his physicality to brawl inside. If Mares can successfully employ a rough-house attack strategy (i.e., turn this into an ugly fight), this is a fight I think he can win.

But - despite how solid Mares has looked in recent fights under Garcia - I think Santa Cruz most likely wins the rematch by decision, perhaps even more convincingly than he won the first fight. As with the first fight I see the key to Saturday's fight being Santa Cruz's more voluminous punch output combined with his superior stamina. Santa Cruz's advantages in accurate work rate and consistent energy were I think the key difference the first fight three years ago; I don't see a 32-year-old, slightly past prime Mares closing the gap in either of these areas vs. a prime Santa Cruz - if anything I expect Mares to have less stamina and have a lower work rate than he did in their first fight when Mares was closer to his prime.

I see Santa Cruz and Mares as roughly on the same level in terms of skill and power. Mares has superior hand speed and is the better fighter inside but I think Santa Cruz's stamina, consistently high work rate, and more accurate punching will overwhelm Mares in the middle to later rounds regardless of any adjustments Mares has made under Robert Garcia and regardless of whether the fight is fought from close range or from distance.

Though I think the fighters are somewhat evenly matched skill-wise, it should be noted that since his first fight with Mares, Santa Cruz has gained experience and seemingly improved in his two wars with Frampton (who is generally considered a better boxer than Mares). In his second fight vs. Frampton last year, Santa Cruz made impressive adjustments - including switching from a more aggressive, pressuring approach to utilizing his reach advantage to outbox Frampton from distance - to avenge his loss in the first fight. (An adjustment somewhat similar to the adjustments he made after the first couple of rounds in his first fight with Mares where he transitioned from trading punches with Mares on the inside to boxing more from distance.)

From his previous experience with Mares, I anticipate Santa Cruz having a better feel for how to counter Mares' aggressive, physical style and think he'll win more convincingly this time around by clear - albeit a competitive and at times thrilling - unanimous decision, if not a late stoppage.

If - at the beginning of 2018 - I was asked to pick a single fight that could be expected to live up to the hype and contend for Fight of the Year it would be this one so looking forward to seeing how the action shapes out!

Prediction: Santa Cruz by decision

Recommended bet: 1) Santa Cruz by any decision (risk 1 unit)

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Santa Cruz vs. Frampton II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) vs. Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 28, 2017
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz +160, Frampton -170 (5 Dimes, 1/28/17)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $900,000, Frampton: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #4 ranked featherweight, Frampton: #10 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Frampton: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

This is a very highly anticipated rematch of what was universally considered one of the top two or three fights of 2016 - a fight in which undefeated and recently-crowned 2016 Ring Magazine, ESPN, and Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) fighter of the year Carl Frampton outpointed 3-1 favorite Leo Santa Cruz in a closely-contested, majority decision thriller. The win earned Frampton the previously undefeated Santa Cruz's WBA featherweight title (after Frampton had unified the WBA and IBF super bantamweight titles earlier in the year in a split decision victory vs. then undefeated Scott Quigg) and made him the first foreign-born fighter in 13 attempts to win a world title vs. an American-born fighter on U.S. soil.

Like their previous fight, this fight should be another classic matchup of quantity vs. quality between two top-rated boxers in their prime - the at times electric, punch-per-second Santa Cruz vs. the better-skilled, more accurate punching Frampton.

Punch for punch, Santa Cruz may be the most exciting fighter in the sport (CompuBox statistics consistently rate him among the top one or two fighters in the sport in terms of both punches thrown and punches landed), but he lost a very close majority decision in front of what was a decidedly pro-Frampton crowd at Barclays Center in New York City. The rematch will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada - a location only a few hours from Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles where Santa Cruz's Mexican-American and Mexican fans are expected to have a much stronger presence.

 Will the slicker, craftier Frampton outbox Santa Cruz again to retain his featherweight title (and retain his status as possibly the top featherweight in the world) or will Santa Cruz's punch output in front of what should be more home-friendly confines in Las Vegas carry the day in his attempt to avenge the first loss of his career?

Why Leo Santa Cruz will win

Despite getting outboxed in their first fight last July, Santa Cruz is only a little worse than a 3-2 underdog in this rematch vs. Frampton. The first fight was very close, despite the massive Irish and Irish-American pro-Frampton contingent that appeared to dominate the Madison Square Garden crowd. (I was in attendance for the fight and scored it a 114-114 draw, while one of the three judges also scored the fight a draw.)

In Las Vegas - only a four hour drive from his hometown of Los Angeles - Santa Cruz should expect much more friendly crowd support from his Mexican and Mexican-American fanbase, especially given that Santa Cruz is arguably the most popular and high profile active boxer from nearby Los Angeles. The change in venue from a pro-Frampton arena to likely a pro-Santa Cruz one has a good chance of energizing Santa Cruz's efforts inside the ring and possibly influencing the judges' scoring outside the ring in favor of Santa Cruz. (I do feel the first fight was closer than the 117-111 and 116-112 scores that two of the three judges provided and - from being at the fight and experiencing the energy of the crowd in person - feel that the judges could've been affected in part by the raucous crowd support Frampton enjoyed at Madison Square Garden.)

Santa Cruz is a come-forward pressure fighter who suffered the first loss of his professional career in last July's fight vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz typically wins by overwhelming his opponents with an accumulation of  of punches (often throwing over 100 punches a round) thrown from a wide array of angles.

Per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz threw exactly 50% more punches than Frampton in their first fight - throwing more punches than Frampton in each round - and landing more punches overall. Despite this, Santa Cruz lost a close decision, largely because in trying to initially be patient and box Frampton his punch output in the first five rounds of the fight was nearly 40% less (67.8 punches thrown per round) than it was over the last seven rounds of the fight (94.7 punches thrown per round). Given Santa Cruz's notoriously excellent stamina and Frampton's tendency to fade a bit in later rounds, it was not surprising to see Santa Cruz increase his punch activity in the middle and later rounds of the fight and win most of the late rounds vs. Frampton. Santa Cruz has a much better idea of what to expect in this fight so if he is less cautious and can pick up his punch activity early he stands a good chance of winning some of the early rounds he lost in the last fight - especially in front of what should be a much friendlier crowd in Vegas.

Santa Cruz is the naturally bigger fighter with a 7" reach advantage. Though Frampton generally landed the more accurate, cleaner power punches in their last fight the punches - with the exception of a couple in the early rounds - didn't seem to affect the bigger Santa Cruz too much. Santa Cruz has only been knocked down once in his professional career and was seemingly never in danger of being knocked down or stopped in last year's fight vs. Frampton. If Santa Cruz can use his reach advantage and keep his punch activity high in the face of Frampton's superior power and counter punching abilities I see him both outthrowing and outlanding Frampton by a larger margin than he did in the last fight, which in my opinion would likely lead to a decision victory for Santa Cruz even if Frampton is more accurate and lands most of the cleaner shots as he did in the last fight.

Santa Cruz dealt with a significant life distraction in his last fight vs. Frampton as his father Jose Santa Cruz - who has also been his lead trainer for his entire professional career - was suffering from and being treated for stage 3 bone cancer during prefight preparations. This distraction no doubt led to stress and lack of focus in preparing for the first fight. (Even Frampton admitted that Santa Cruz's father's cancer diagnosis likely affected Santa Cruz's mindset going into the last fight.) With Santa Cruz's father's cancer now in remission and with Santa Cruz's father fully dedicated to training duties (Santa Cruz's older brother Antonio assumed most of the lead trainer duties while his father underwent cancer treatment), one should expect a more focused and energized Santa Cruz in the rematch.

Why Carl Frampton will win

Why could Carl Frampton beat Santa Cruz? Well he is still undefeated and just beat Santa Cruz in his last fight this past July. In that fight, Frampton did outbox Santa Cruz and showed he was the more skilled, accurate, crafty boxer with faster hand speed and - despite being the smaller fighter - arguably better punching power. (He certainly hurt Santa Cruz more than Santa Cruz hurt him in the first fight.)

Despite Santa Cruz throwing 50% more punches, Frampton landed almost as many punches (242 for Frampton vs. 255 for Santa Cruz) and landed at a much higher percentage than Santa Cruz (36.2% of punches landed for Frampton vs. only 25.4% of punches landed for Santa Cruz) while landing the cleaner, more powerful punches in the process. Frampton not only landed at a higher percentage than Santa Cruz overall, he landed at a higher percentage in each of the 12 rounds of the fight. So despite the fact that the last fight was (correctly) considered close and competitive, it was arguably a dominant performance by Frampton over Santa Cruz in terms of pure boxing ability given the disparity in percentage and quality of punches landed. There's little reason to believe the technically superior Frampton won't again use his very good timing and accuracy to exploit Santa Cruz's often over-aggressive and sometimes sloppy pressure style with well-timed jabs and power punching as he did in the last fight.

Frampton appears to be the more intelligent, versatile boxer so appears to be the boxer who is more likely to make the proper adjustments from the previous fight. (Technically superior boxers generally fare better vs. less skilled fighters in rematches.) Frampton boxes much better on the move than Santa Cruz which - combined with his solid, stiff jab - should allow him to control distance vs. Santa Cruz despite Santa Cruz's 7" reach advantage.

Frampton's first fight vs. Santa Cruz took place in New York City in front of a pro-Frampton crowd littered with Irish and Irish-American supporters. Tonight's fight will be in Las Vegas - closer to Santa Cruz's hometown of Los Angeles - so Frampton likely won't enjoy the raucous support he enjoyed in New York City. But boxing fans from the United Kingdom are known for traveling extremely well; there will for sure be a huge, enthusiastic contingent of Irish traveling from overseas for the fight so while Santa Cruz will probably enjoy at least a slight advantage in crowd support, significant - and possibly louder - portions of the crowd will be pulling for Frampton. (So the Las Vegas location may not being as home-friendly for Santa Cruz as it may seem from the surface.)

Frampton is the more skilled boxer (arguably more skilled by a wide margin judging from the last fight) with advantages in accuracy, power, and speed and just beat Santa Cruz in their first fight only a few months ago; it will be difficuly for Santa Cruz to overcome all of these advantages to pull off the upset.

Prefight Analysis

I give Frampton a slight 55/45 edge in this rematch and think he *probably* beats Santa Cruz again. Despite the fact that I actually scored their first fight a draw, I thought Frampton clearly showed he was the better fighter by landing punches at a significantly higher percentage (including landing at a higher percentage in every single round of the fight) and landing the vast majority of the cleaner, more powerful punches. The fact that Frampton landed almost as many punches as Santa Cruz was impressive given that Santa Cruz threw 50% more punches in the fight. Frampton was the more accurate, crafty fighter; his slick foot movement and counterpunching skills were generally very effective vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume, hyper-aggressive punch output.

As the superior boxer, one would expect Frampton to do more of the same in tonight's fight. Frampton is a naturally reactive boxer who reads his opponents very well - after having already fought (and outboxed) Santa Cruz previously one would expect he'd be the fighter more apt to make the necessary adjustments to beat Santa Cruz even more decisively in a rematch.

Style-wise, I think Frampton holds so many advantages over Santa Cruz (skill, speed, accuracy, boxing IQ, power) that you have to grade him as at least a slight favorite to win the rematch.

But in terms of betting on the fight I actually feel the most value here is in betting on Santa Cruz to win by decision (currently at approximately 2.8-1 odds). The 2.8-1 odds on Santa Cruz to win by decision is theoretically a profitable bet if you think Santa Cruz wins by decision at least 26.5% of the time; I grade Santa Cruz's chances of winning by decision at closer to 40-45%, making this bet - at least in my estimation - a very solid value bet.

Despite Frampton mostly outboxing Santa Cruz in their first fight in landing the cleaner punches at a higher percentage, Santa Cruz did decisively outwork Frampton with his punch output - throwing more punches than Frampton in every round - and came on the latter part of the fight to win most of the late rounds. Despite Frampton's impressive boxing display vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume effort, the first fight was still a very close and competitive fight to the point where one of the judges scored the fight a draw. (I was at the fight and also scored the fight a draw and would even have been okay with a close decision to Santa Cruz given his success outworking and landing clean punches on Frampton in the later rounds.) If Santa Cruz gets off to a better start in the early rounds of tonight's fight (which I think stands a pretty good chance of happening - Santa Cruz can afford to risk being less cautious early as the smaller Frampton did not show a consistent ability to hurt him), I think the conditions of the fight are set up well for Santa Cruz to continue on and pull off the upset.

While Frampton will have his share of loud and enthusiastic fans in Las Vegas, the pro-Frampton crowd support for this fight - which I believe played at least a small role in how the fight was scored by a couple of the judges - won't be near what it was in New York City for the first fight.  And in tonight's fight, I see Santa Cruz being more focused and energized than in the last fight given that his father - who was undergoing cancer treatment during preparations for the last fight - is healthy again and has resumed full lead trainer duties for this fight.

While I think Frampton probably wins this fight - given the conditions of the near-west coast location (which should favor Santa Cruz), a likely more prepared and energized Santa Cruz, and Santa Cruz's ability to outwork and outpunch his opponent even when getting outboxed, Santa Cruz by decision at 2.8-1 odds appears to be the best bet in terms of value.

Either way let's hope this fight is at least half as entertaining as the last one!

Prediction: Frampton to win

Recommended bet: Santa Cruz by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Santa Cruz vs. Mares: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (30-0-1, 17 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (29-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: August 29, 2015
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Santa Cruz -230, Mares +190 (5 Dimes, 8/29/15)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $1.25 million, Mares: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #2 ranked junior featherweight, Mares: #4 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Santa Cruz
Negatives for Santa Cruz
Positives for Mares
Negatives for Mares
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Santa Cruz

• Undefeated boxer (30-0-1) who is the former IBF Bantamweight (122 lbs) and current WBC Super Bantamweight (126 lbs) champion. Hyper-aggressive, relentless puncher who - per CompuBox stats - both throws and lands more punches than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer.   
• Come-forward pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with an accumulation of punches thrown from a wide array of angles. But despite his high activity is a surprisingly accurate and efficient fighter; often throws over 100 punches in a round and lands around 40 percent of those punches, a percentage which - per CompuBox stats - ranks third behind only Floyd Mayweather and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Adept at setting opponents up with the jab in early rounds to set-up rapid multi-punch flurries in later rounds as his opponents tire. 
• Technically sound boxer with a fairly good high guard defense; per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz opponents only land approximately 25 percent of their punches. Has also shown a very good chin thus far in his career, having only been knocked down once in 31 professional fights (knocked down in the 4th round of his August 2009 fight vs. Robert DaLuz, a fight he won by unanimous decision). Has a better chin and better defensive skills than Mares, which will come into play if this fight turns into a brawl.
• Has excellent stamina; despite throwing more punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer, Santa Cruz doesn't seem to tire. Fights with as much energy in middle to late rounds as he does in early rounds.
• Relatively tall fighter for this weight class (5'7") and will come into this fight vs. Mares as the taller (3" height advantage) and likely slightly larger fighter in size. Relatively long-limbed fighter (69" reach) who will also have a 3" reach advantage so may be able to keep Mares, a specialist at fighting inside, at arm's length with his jab if needed.
• Mares is the more proven, experienced fighter but Santa Cruz is actually considered the "A-side" fighter in this matchup, considering that Santa Cruz has gotten more of the press attention and his name is getting top billing for the fight. Both Mares and Santa Cruz are managed by Al Haymon and his Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) promotional company but Haymon and PBC appear to be mainly promoting Santa Cruz as a potential future superstar in the sport. As the more "politically connected" fighter, there is a greater chance of Santa Cruz getting the decision in a close fight - even if Mares turns in the slightly better performance.
• Is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Looking to gain the first marquee win of his career by defeating Mares.

Negatives for Santa Cruz

• Santa Cruz is a largely untested fighter who has fought questionable competition over the course of his career. Most notable wins came vs. relatively unknown Christian Mijares, Victor Terrazas, and Eric Morel - all former world champions but were arguably past their prime at the time they fought Santa Cruz. How will Santa Cruz fare in his first fight vs. a true top-level opponent in Mares? Mares comes into this fight with a clear advantage in both experience and quality of competition.
• Santa Cruz is the taller, naturally bigger fighter but will be fighting in only his 2nd fight as a featherweight, having just moved up from junior featherweight earlier this year. Mares has fought five fights at featherweight over the past two years and has won a world title at this weight class. 
• Mares is the technically superior fighter whose lone loss came via 1st round KO vs. a boxer with legitimate one-punch KO power (Jhonny Gonzalez). Santa Cruz - a volume puncher - does not have elite punching power, with only 17 of his 30 wins coming by TKO/KO. To win this fight, Santa Cruz will likely have to overwhelm Mares with an accumulation of punches as he does not have the power to change the course of the fight with one punch the same way Gonzalez did.
• Santa Cruz's high guard defense, while fairly effective, leaves him susceptible to body punching, something which Mares excels at. Santa Cruz's height advantage and propensity to fight on the inside may also work against him here as shorter fighters (as Mares is in this matchup) generally have more success to the body when fighting inside. 
• Although having a better chin and better defense than Mares, Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter who will inevitably get hit in his attempts to apply pressure. How will Santa Cruz's defense hold up vs. Mares, a more skilled, mobile fighter who can beat Santa Cruz to the punch with his faster hands? 
• Santa Cruz is used to controlling the tempo and applying pressure in his fights as he comes forward; in this fight he will (for the first time in his career) be facing another highly-skilled, former pound-for-pond ranked pressure fighter who may force him at times to fight off his back foot. How will Santa Cruz fare if Mares is successful pressuring him backwards towards the ropes? In previous fights, Santa Cruz has appeared uncomfortable when fighting off his back foot.

Positives for Mares

• Former IBF Bantamweight, WBC Super Bantamweight, and WBC Featherweight champion. Aggressive brawler with good boxing skills who just two years ago was undefeated and ranked #5 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list before a 1st round KO loss to Jhonny Gonzales. Represented Mexico at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
• Like Santa Cruz, is a high-volume pressure fighter, but is more versatile and has better boxing skills. Rough, physical fighter who is a very good body puncher and adept at brawling from the inside (including the use of questionably dirty veteran tricks) but has the ability to adjust and box from the outside if necessary (as shown in his 2nd fight vs. Joseph Agbeko). Is particularly effective with his jab and left hook.  
• Compared to Santa Cruz is the more established world-class fighter with a significant advantage in experience. Within the past five years has fought - and beaten - former world champions such as Vic Darchinyan, Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno, and Daniel Ponce De Leon. Lone loss was a 1st-round KO loss to power puncher Jhonny Gonzalez (for whom Mares used to be a sparring partner years ago) in August 2013; Mares is 3-0 since that KO loss. Mares is also the more experienced fighter at featherweight (this will only be Santa Cruz's 2nd fight at featherweight).
• Mares is the more talented, skilled boxer with better punching power and slightly quicker hands. Is also the more mobile figher who appears to be much more capable of fighting off his back foot (e.g., when being pressured). Mares is 3 inches shorter than Santa Cruz but his shorter height may be to his advantage if the fight turns into an inside brawl as many expect. (Shorter fighters have easier access to the body - particularly vs. a high guard defense like the one Santa Cruz has - and Mares is a very skilled body puncher.) 
• Other than the KO loss to Gonzalez, Mares has generally shown a good chin throughout his career. Other than the Gonzalez fight, Mares has only been knocked down once in his career - in the 2nd round of a December 2010 split-decision victory vs. former Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter and 3-division world champion Darchinyan.

Negatives for Mares

• Mares's most memorable fight was the 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez; Mares is 3-0 in the two years since that loss but all 3 wins were fairly unimpressive wins vs. lower quality opponents. Mares does not appear to be the same pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was prior to the loss to Gonzalez so unclear how we will perform stepping back up to face a higher quality opponent in Santa Cruz, who is arguably the toughest opponent to date in his career. Fighters are often more timid and cautious after suffering brutal KO losses, which appears to be the case with Mares.     
• As an inside pressure fighter Mares is highly susceptible to clean counter punching; statistically, Santa Cruz throws and lands more punches than anyone in boxing (and does so at a high connect percentage even going into middle and later rounds) so can easily see Mares wearing down vs. Santa Cruz's avalanche of punches as the fight progresses. Santa Cruz will inevitably have stretches of success landing vs. Mares - the question is how well Mares can withstand Santa Cruz's relentless attack. 
• Is considered by some to be one of the dirtiest fighters in boxing (if not the dirtiest fighter). Has been guilty of landing multiple low blows in fights, most notably in his 1st fight vs. Agbeko (a fight where many felt he should have been disqualified), as well as his fights vs. Darchinyan and Moreno. Mares has suffered point deductions in previous fights due to dirty tactics and will be prone to getting deducted points in tonight's fight vs. Santa Cruz, especially considering that Santa Cruz is a taller fighter who will be looking to fight inside vs. Mares. 
• Mares has more power than Santa Cruz but, like Santa Cruz, is not a big KO puncher; only 15 of Mares's 29 wins came via TKO/KO. If Mares is going to win this fight, it's very likely he'll have to win a decision.

Prefight Summary

There is a pretty good argument that most of the metrics for this fight favor Abner Mares. Mares is after all by far the more experienced boxer, having beaten a string of tough reigning or former world champions  over the course of a 2.5 year span to become a 3-division world champion and at one time a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. (Santa Cruz by comparison is notably unproven; tonight will be the first test in his career vs. a top-level opponent.)

Mares is also generally considered the more talented, skilled boxer with slightly greater punching power, quicker hands, and better foot movement. In reviewing previous fights, Mares appears to be a more savvy ring general than the sometimes mechanical Santa Cruz and is a particularly savvy fighter brawling from the inside, where many expect much of the action in this fight to take place. As mentioned previously, Mares's shorter height may prove to be a key advantage when he goes to the body vs. the taller Santa Cruz who, with his high guard defense, will leave his body exposed in spots. Mares is a veteran brawler with many tricks (both clean and a bit dirty) up his sleeve; while I don't think he has the punching power to beat the more durable, less battle-worn Santa Cruz by TKO/KO, I would not at all be surprised if he outboxes Santa Cruz en route to a decision victory.

But Mares hasn't looked impressive in his last 3 fights vs. B and C-level competition (despite having a 3-0 record in those 3 fights) and, at the end of the day, I don't see him withstanding Santa Cruz's relentless pressure and prolific work rate over the course of a 12-round fight that is likely to be more of a brawl than a boxing match. In this specific matchup I see Santa Cruz's energy and unmatched activity overwhelming Mares's skill and slight power and speed advantages, especially considering Mares's skills appear to have diminished a bit since his KO loss to Gonzalez. Mares, a defensively-lacking pressure fighter, will be right in front of Santa Cruz for much of the night and I don't like his chances vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume punch rate. Santa Cruz is the less experienced, less proven fighter in this matchup for sure but he has shown very good skill and surprising (given the number of punches he throws) accuracy in recent fights and appears more than ready for the step up to face higher-level opposition like Mares. Although fighting lesser-skilled opponents, Santa Cruz has generally looked impressive in recent fights while Mares - a brawler who has been in a lot of wars in recent years - hasn't looked quite the same since his 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez two years ago.

Despite perhaps still being the more skilled boxer with quicker hands, I don't think even an aggressive pressure fighter like Mares will have the punch output necessary to match Santa Cruz, whose work rate and stamina I think will largely stymie Mares's typically high-volume attack over the course of 12 rounds. I think Mares's loss to Gonzalez was the beginning of the end for Mares as a top-level boxer and that this fight will reveal further how his previously very highly regarded offensive skills have diminished.

I see Santa Cruz outworking Mares as the fight progresses (i.e., as Mares tires from foot movement and the accumulation of Santa Cruz punches) en route to a clear but competitive decision victory, with perhaps even an outside chance at a stoppage by Santa Cruz in the later rounds. Sorry to say but I also think that if this fight is close (which is a good possibility), even to the point of Mares slightly outboxing Santa Cruz, there is a good chance that the more "politically connected" fighter in Santa Cruz will be granted a controversial decision, especially considering that it will be tough for judges to overlook Santa Cruz's energy and high activity even if all the punches aren't landing.

So I like Santa Cruz's punch volume and durability over Mares's advantages in skill, power, and speed, especially when you consider that Mares's skills appear to have diminished in recent fights.

In any case, this is a classic matchup of two Mexican brawlers (think Barrera vs. Morales, Marquez vs.Vazquez, Corrales vs. Castillo, though Corrales was only half-Mexican) that has all the makings of a strong fight of the year candidate. On paper this is the best matchup PBC has offered in the nearly six months they've been broadcasting fights and I'm excited and intrigued to see how tonight's fight plays out!!! 

Prediction: Santa Cruz to win 

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