Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. 

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace. 

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

 How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.) 

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above.  All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit) 

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Golovkin vs. Martirosyan: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) vs. Vanes Martirosyan (36-3-1, 21 KOs)
Location: StubHub Center, Carson, California
Date: May 5, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles (Golovkin is also the IBF World middleweight champion but the IBF declined to sanction this fight.)
TV: HBO
Purses: Golovkin: $1 million, Martirosyan: $225,000
Line: Golovkin -2550, Martirosyan +1900 (5 Dimes, 5/4/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Martirosyan: Not ranked
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Martirosyan: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Gennady Golovkin was supposed to fight Mexican boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez this Saturday in Las Vegas in a rematch of their September fight (that ended in a highly entertaining, but controversial draw that most observers felt Golovkin won), but the fight was canceled after Canelo failed two drug tests in the leadup to the fight.

Despite the draw from the Canelo fight (the first blemish on Golovkin's previously perfect boxing record), Golovkin is still undefeated and still ranked by many experts - including Ring Magazine - as the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. Golovkin is still the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world (boasting an impressive 87% KO percentage - the highest KO% in middleweight history) and still probably the most feared power puncher in the sport.

But Golovkin hasn't looked quite as invincible in recent fights vs. A-level fighters as he did in his prime vs. weaker competition. Controversy or not, Golovkin managed only a draw in his most recent fight vs. Canelo and eked out a close unanimous decision victory in his fight preceding the Canelo fight last March vs. Danny Jacobs - a fight that some observers felt he lost. (I was at this fight and - despite betting on Golovkin to win - scored it 114-113 for Jacobs.) The fights vs. both Canelo and Jacobs were somewhat surprising, much closer-than-expected results after Golovkin had won his 23 fights prior to those fights all by TKO or KO.

The fact of the matter is, Golovkin is 36-years old and past his prime, with some feeling he's (noticeably) slowed in recent years in terms of foot speed, and doesn't have quite the power he had in his prime. Saturday's fight vs. an underrated, highly skilled fighter in Vanes Martirosyan is a chance for Golovkin to prove he hasn't regressed even further after an 8-month layoff (the 2nd longest layoff of his career) and a chance to gauge whether he should still be rated the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport over the likes of rising stars such as Terence Crawford and Vasyl Lomachenko.

Martirosyan is moving up in weight from the junior middleweight (154 lb) division to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career (after a two-year layoff from the sport) and is fighting on less than three weeks notice to fight arguably the #1 boxer in the world.

But Martirosyan poses an intriguing challenge for Golovkin. Martirosyan has 3 losses in his career, but those were all close, disputed decision losses to A-level fighters in Erislandy Lara, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. (Andrade and Charlo are still undefeated and considered among the best in the sport pound-for-pound.)

Martirosyan has proven he has the ability to box with anyone. He's adept at fighting from distance and moves extremely well; his tricky, sometimes awkward movement combined with excellent stamina makes it difficult for anyone - even an elite power puncher like Golovkin - to land fight-stopping punches against him. (In 40 professional fights, Martirosyan has never even come close to being stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career - a flash knockdown in the 9th round of his unanimous decision victory vs. Kasim Ouma in 2010.)

Despite the public criticism of this matchup, Martirosyan is arguably one of the top four or five opponents Golovkin has faced (in terms of talent and skill) and is a solid enough boxer to be an effective gauge as to where a 36-year-old Golovkin is at in his career after two fights in which he fought well, but showed signs of slippage.

If Martirosyan - a massive 20-1 underdog in this matchup - can win this fight it would obviously be (by far) the biggest win of his career, not to mention be the biggest upset in boxing in recent memory. An upset here would turn the middleweight division - which Golovkin has dominated for most of the last decade - on its heels.

But if Golovkin looks impressive and dominates Martirosyan as expected, it further wets the appetite for a possible Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in September, a rematch of what was considered by many a classic and one of the best fights of 2017.

Prefight Analysis

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Martirosyan is competitive in this fight. Martirosyan has never been decisively beaten in his career and in 2 out of this 3 career losses (each of which came vs. A-level fighters), you could make a strong argument that Martirosyan won the fight. There's been criticism of the Golovkin/Martirosyan matchup, but Vanes is a top-level fighter in his own right who's difficult to look good against and could prove to be a tougher-than-expected test for Golovkin.

Martirosyan moves well and has slightly better hand and foot speed than Golovkin. While far from a defensive wizard, Martirosyan has enough skill and awkward elusiveness to evade Golovkin's power punching and make this a competitive fight for several rounds. Martirosyan is moving up in weight and hasn't fought in nearly two years but in terms of pure skill, I'd rate Martirosyan just below Canelo, Jacobs, and Kell Brook as probably the 4th-best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career. I  would also rate Martirosyan's ability to box on the move as comparable and in some ways superior to Jacobs, who employed effective movement to give Golovkin the toughest fight of his career.

But Martirosyan is nearly a 20-1 underdog in this matchup for a reason. You can't escape the fact that
Vanes will be making his middleweight debut on less than 3 weeks notice after a 2-year layoff vs. arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and arguably the #1 middleweight fighter of this generation in Golovkin. Martirosyan has never faced a fighter with power anything close to Golovkin's and I think Vanes will lose some of his elusiveness and crafty foot movement (which he would rely on to evade that power) at the higher weight. And although Martirosyan is a fighter who moves well, he's a scrappy fighter at heart who's shown in previous fights a willingness to stay in the pocket and trade punches from close distance - at trait which will likely work against him if he decides to trade vs. a historically great power puncher like Golovkin.

Note that Golovkin will be able to stay aggressive and take more risks vs. Martirosyan - a natural 154-lber who doesn't have the knockout power of a Canelo or Jacobs, both of whom Golovkin had to at times box cautiously against (as respect to their power).

Skillwise, I think Golovkin and Martirosyan are comparable but there will be a clear advantage in terms of size, power, and experience at middleweight for Golovkin in this matchup. Martirosyan is a game fighter who I think is underrated by most. But if you combine the size and power advantages here with the ring rust resulting from Vanes having been out of the ring for nearly two years, I think we'll see a fairly easy stoppage victory for Golovkin in the middle rounds - perhaps earlier. Again, Martirosyan has an awkward style that's difficult to look good against, but - with all factors considered - if Golovkin doesn't look good here I think it will be a bit of a confirmation that he's slipped a bit and perhaps should no longer be considered the best boxer in the world over the likes of Lomachenko or Crawford.

In any case I'll be at the fight at StubHub Saturday night and am looking forward to seeing how this fight unfolds!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 
1) Golovkin to win in rounds 1-4 (.5 unit) 
2) Golovkin to win in rounds 5-8 (.5 unit)

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David Lemieux vs. Billy Joe Saunders: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: David Lemieux (38-3, 33 KOs) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs)
Location: Place Bell, Laval, Quebec, Canada
Date: December 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Lemieux -115, Saunders -105 (5 Dimes, 12/15/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lemieux: #3 ranked middleweight, Saunders: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Lemieux: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

In a middleweight division loaded with talent, Billy Joe Saunders is an undefeated world title holder (WBO) who is arguably the third best middleweight on the planet behind boxing superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.

Saunders is a tough and very talented technician who has beaten everyone put in front of him,  including highly regarded World Boxing Super Series super middleweight favorite and - at the time undefeated - Chris Eubank Jr. But Saunders will be fighting outside the the friendly confines of his home country (the United Kingdom) for the first time in his professional career Saturday night when he travels to Canada to face one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport in David Lemieux on Lemieux's home turf in Montreal. Lemieux is a highly aggressive, explosive puncher with power in both hands and an impressive 80.5% KO ratio over 41 professional fights; his only loss in the past seven years was to current Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1-ranked fighter Golovkin.

A win for Lemieux tomorrow night would be by far the most impressive of his career (would in fact be his first win vs. a top-level opponent) and would firmly establish him as one of the top four or five middleweights in the world. The winner of this fight is probably the most likely to face the winner of next May's Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch later in 2018 for a middleweight unification bout that could result in the first undisputed middleweight champion in boxing since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

With the exception of a few, fighters from the United Kingdom have typically not fared well in title fights overseas in hostile environments vs. world-class opposition. A win for Saunders tomorrow night vs. Lemieux would actually be one of the more impressive wins for a UK fighter outside the UK in recent years. 

Prefight Analysis

As the odds suggest, Lemieux vs. Saunders is a true "50/50" fight that could go either way. Extremely difficult to predict the winner here.

What you have to like about Saunders is that he is likely the better pure boxer/technician in this matchup, with his high ring intelligence and superior boxing skills. Unlike Lemieux, Saunders has also never lost a fight in his professional career. Whenever Saunders has faced a tough, top-level opponent (vs. Eubank Jr., Andy Lee, or even his most recent fight vs. a solid Willie Monroe Jr. - all of whom are arguably on the same level as, if not even slightly better than Lemieux) he's emerged from the fight victorious. Lemieux, on the other hand, has never beaten a fighter near the caliber of Saunders and has actually already lost twice in his hometown of Montreal to fighters with less skill than Saunders. (Lemieux's first loss was to a fighter in Joachim Alcine who proceeded to lose his next five fights after beating Lemieux.)

Although Saunders doesn't have Lemieux's power, he strikes me as both mentally and physically tougher than Lemieux - a toughness I think that is the result of his blue collar, Gypsy upbringing where he'd been fighting in bare-knuckle competitions when he was only five years old. Saunders has a tight, effective defense (opponents land only 18% of total punches and 23.6% of power punches vs. Saunders) and has never been knocked out or knocked down in his professional career. (Lemieux, on the other hand, has been stopped twice.) I think Saunders' superior boxing skill (in particular his solid jab which I expect to be very effective in managing distance vs. Lemieux), as well as his oft-overlooked mental toughness and grit may be too much for Lemieux to over come - even in Montreal.

With all that said, I'm not at all comfortable betting on Saunders to win this fight - even at nearly even money odds - as Lemieux does have several advantages in this matchup. This fight is essentially in Lemieux's hometown (Laval, Quebec - a suburb of Montreal) and - although Saunders is technically the "A" side fighter in this matchup - Lemieux's promoter Golden Boy is the more high profile, lead promoter for Saturday night's boxing card. I strongly suspect the home crowd atmosphere combined with the backing of Golden Boy Promotions may create a scoring bias in favor of Lemieux - as it arguably did  this past May for Golden Boy-backed Canelo in his controversial draw vs. Golovkin, a fight which many felt he clearly lost. Again, this will be the first time in Saunders' professional career that he's fought outside of the United Kingdom, so it's tough to predict how well he'll fare fighting in a hostile environment.

Although Saunders may have slightly faster hand speed, Lemieux is the superior athlete with much greater punching power. Saunders has never in his career faced a fighter with Lemieux's combination of power and punch volume and could end up getting overwhelmed by Lemieux's effective aggression - especially in the later rounds where Saunders is known to gas out on occasion. And though Lemieux has lost earlier in his career - as an inexperienced 22-year old - to lesser opponents than Saunders, he's gained experience and improved a bit since those losses; since losing two consecutive fights in 2011, Lemieux has lost only one other fight - to a fighter in Golovkin many consider the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the great middleweights of all time. Saunders, on the other hand, hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent fights, causing some to speculate whether he's already past his peak as a top-level fighter.

Lemieux vs. Saunders is a "toss-up" fight in the truest sense of the word. Despite Lemieux's power advantage inside the ring and advantage in some key intangibles outside of the ring (home crowd, high-profile promoter), I still slightly favor Saunders' superior boxing skills, defense, and mental toughness to prevail vs. Lemieux. Just not enough to bet on it.

I do, however, believe Saunders - with his slick defensive abilities and solid chin (a chin which has never hit the canvas in his professional career) - is highly likely to get through the full 12 rounds with Lemieux, win or lose. Note that 2 of Lemieux's last 3 fights within the past 14 months - both vs. lesser-skilled opponents than Saunders - went the full distance with Lemieux failing to score even one knockdown in either fight. Note also that Lemieux - who, like Saunders, has a history of stamina issues - has only one of his 33 TKO/KO victories past the 7th round; in other words, if Lemieux doesn't stop his opponent in the early or middle rounds, he's usually not stopping them late.

With Saunders not being much of a puncher himself (only two wins by TKO/KO in the past five years and a career TKO/KO% of only 48%), I think that the best value on this fight is to bet that the fight goes the full 12 rounds - a bet that is currently available at around -150 odds.

As far as the outcome, it's hard to predict even what kind of fight will break out Saturday night. A high-volume war likely favors Lemieux, while a slower-paced, more tactical fight likely favors Saunders. Bur either way it's an intriguing matchup and tough test that puts a lot at stake for both fighters.

Prediction: Saunders by decision

Recommended bet: Lemieux/Saunders goes full 12 rounds (.5 unit)

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Canelo vs. Golovkin: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles (Canelo has opted not to accept the WBC belt if he wins so that title will become vacant if Canelo wins the fight.)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golvkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/16/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $3 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Golovkin: #2 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Thus far, 2017 has been an outstanding year for boxing featuring quite a few thrilling fights and long-awaited matchups between high-profile boxers. But tonight's fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin is probably the most long-awaited, highly anticipated matchup of them all. Tonight will be a matchup between two of the biggest names in boxing - both of whom are ranked in Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 and are arguably the two best middleweights in the sport.

With Floyd Mayweather's retirement, Canelo is unquestionably the top PPV attraction in boxing right now - he's a wildly popular boxer (particularly in his home country of Mexico, where he attracts Superbowl-like ratings every time he fights) in the prime of his career with elite skills to match his popularity. The only loss on Canelo's record is to undefeated pound-for-pound legend Mayweather, but Canelo seems to have noticeably improved after each fight since that loss with seven consecutive wins, six of which came against current or former world champions.

But, including the Mayweather fight, Canelo is now faced with what may be the toughest fight of his career in Golovkin. Gennady Golovkin, the #2 pound-for-pound ranked boxer in the world by Ring Magazine, is the undefeated WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and has won 33 out of his 37 professional fights - including 23 out of his last 24 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 89%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin looked vulnerable in his last fight - a closely-contested unanimous decision victory vs. Danny Jacobs last March (a fight which many felt he lost) - but Golovkin is still considered the most feared man in boxing. With the exception of his most recent fight vs. Jacobs, every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. Tonight will actually be Golovkin's first ever fight as a pro in Las Vegas.

On the heels of the much-hyped, entertaining, but (arguably) farcical Mayweather vs. McGregor boxing exhibition a few weeks ago, Canelo vs. Golovkin is what many would consider to be the real fight hardcore and casual boxing fans alike have been waiting for all year. Both Canelo and Golovkin are aggressive, stalking power punchers who prefer to fight from close range so this fight is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed, intense matchup that likely won't last the full 12 rounds.

The winner of this fight will have earned by far the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have legitimate claim to be considered the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. The winner of this fight will also be the holder of at least two major middleweight title belts (Canelo has refused to accept the WBC middleweight title if he wins on Saturday night due to the WBC essentially forcing him to vacate middleweight title last year after failed negotiations with Golovkin, the mandatory challenger for the WBC title at the time) which sets up a possible unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders.

Already noted as one of the better middleweights in boxing history, Golovkin could retire tomorrow and likely be a boxing Hall of Fame inductee. Canelo perhaps isn't quite Hall-of-Fame level yet but a win over Golovkin Saturday night would make him an instant Mexican boxing legend (if he isn't already) and secure his status as a future Hall of Famer.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Canelo comes into this fight as a slight (+140) underdog but - like Golovkin - is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound. Canelo is ranked the #8 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine and has been considered by the publication to be the true middleweight champion of the world since November 2015, when he beat Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision. Canelo doesn't currently hold any major world titles, but has previously held major titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion  as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before (voluntarily) vacating the titles.

Canelo is a patient, but accurate and highly efficient puncher who has developed into arguably the best aggressive counterpuncher in the sport. Canelo is a technically savvy, A-level boxer with very good to great power in both hands. He throws multi-punch combinations as well as anyone in the sport (especially in terms of variation combined with power, accuracy, and deceptive hand speed) and is an excellent, committed body puncher. (Canelo's best punches are his left hook to the body and right uppercut, which have resulted in multiple TKO/KO victories in his most recent fights.)

Canelo is considered by most observers (including myself) to be the better pure boxer in this matchup. He is the higher IQ boxer, has advantages in hand and foot speed, and is the fighter more adept at making adjustments over the course of the fight. Canelo has only fought above 155 lbs twice in his career but has bulked up (in terms of muscle mass) significantly and will likely come into this fight with a size advantage vs. Golovkin, who has fought his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs.

In previous fights, Canelo has primarily had issues with slick fighters who move well and box mostly from distance (see his loss to Mayweather and his close, competitive fights vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout). He certainly won't be up against this style of opponent on Saturday; a stalking pressure fighter who will be right in front of him the entire night. Canelo has superior inside fighting skills to Golovkin, and - in multiple recent fights - has shown that he is highly adept at counter punching effectively under pressure from close range with accurate, clean power punches. One should not be at all surprised if Canelo, unlike any previous Golovkin opponent, is able to outbox Golovkin on the inside with his back against the ropes - especially given that Golovkin's come-forward, pressuring style does provide ample clean counter punching opportunities.  I expect Canelo's superior hand speed and accurate power to be effective in spots here - even against a fighter with a seemingly impenetrable chin in Golovkin.

Although no defensive wizard, Canelo is also perhaps the more defensively skilled fighter compared to Golovkin. Canelo's upper body defensive movement in particular has noticeably improved in recent years, which should serve him well defending from close range vs. Golovkin. Canelo has also shown a solid chin over the course of his career; he's never been stopped or even knocked down in any of his fights as a pro. While not bad defensively, Golovkin's defense often times is mostly his offense; in executing his pressure attack he at times gets careless in terms of leaving his hands down and leaving himself open to clean counter punching after throwing punches. Canelo almost certainly will have some success exploiting Golovkin's defensive flaws.

Canelo is still a relatively young fighter still in the prime of his career and has shown noticeable improvement in most of his fights since his first Las Vegas fight several years ago vs. Miguel Cotto's brother Jose Cotto (a fight where he was badly hurt in the 1st round). By contrast, Golovkin is 35 years old (over 8 years older than Canelo), is past his prime, and arguably showed signs of regression in his most recent fight last March vs. Jacobs - his first fight in 24 fights (spanning the course of nearly a decade) where he failed to win by stoppage. (The Jacobs fight was also a fight many felt Golovkin lost outright.)

Despite his youth, Canelo has - at just 27 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) In terms of elite opponents, Canelo's experience is decisively superior to that of Golovkin, who has fought tougher, pound-for-pound level opponents in his most recent fights vs. Jacobs and (an undersized) Kell Brook, but prior to that had fought at best fringe world champions that no one would've even considered ranking in the top 50 pound-for-pound.

Saturday's fight, the most anticipated matchup of the year between two championship-level boxers, will take place on Mexican Independence Day weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a largely Mexican-American and Mexican crowd that will be overwhelmingly pro-Canelo - which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being close and competitive it's more likely than not (based on previous history) that the fight will be scored in favor of Canelo. (Though low volume at times, Canelo does have a fan-friendly style complete with accurate and very clean power punching that judges often tend to favor.)

Canelo is a highly determined, poised fighter who has always been very mature for his age. He and his trainers (trainers who have made training Canelo their primary focus since he turned pro at 15 years old) will certainly be extremely well prepared for Saturday's fight, win or lose. Canelo comes across as a fighter who, aside from for his family, fights primarily for his legacy and comes across as a man who just wants (to win) this more than Golovkin. In Golovkin's last fight, Jacobs also struck me as the fighter who was more determined and wanted it more - which I think is a large part of the reason that fight was close and competitive. Canelo - a more efficient and accurate puncher than Jacobs (and arguably a better overall boxer - maybe the best boxer Golovkin has faced in his career) - just may have better results given his seemingly similar advantage in determination.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Gennady Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #2 boxer in the world (behind only fellow undefeated boxer Andre Ward). Golovkin is undefeated at 37-0 and, with 33 KOs in 37 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (89%) in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over seven years and has won 23 out of his last 24 fights by TKO/KO. Golovkin is one of the better middleweight boxers in the history of the division, having successfully defended his middleweight title(s) 18 consecutive times - two wins shy of tying Bernard Hopkins' record of 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses. While Golovkin has spent his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs, Canelo is fighting only the second fight of his career above 155 lbs.

Golovkin's experience extends back to his highly impressive amateur career, which includes a reported 345-5 record and a silver medal at the middleweight division in the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Greece.

Golovkin is the most feared boxer in the sport (and has been among the most avoided boxers for a large portion of his career) for good reasons. He's an outstanding pressure fighter with excellent punching power in both hands - power generated in large part from the balance he maintains at seemingly all times (hence his 89% TKO/KO rate). Golovkin's arguably historically great power is complimented by technical savvy and underrated boxing skills - he is far from just a great power puncher. Golovkin is very accurate with superb timing on his punches and has one of the better jabs in the sport - a punch which was highly effective in his TKO two years ago vs. David Lemieux and will likely be a key weapon in his arsenal tonight vs. Canelo. (Like Wladimir Klitschko, Golovkin's jab essentially works as another power punch, with which he is also able to effectively control distance.)   

Golovkin's immense power combined with his ability to cutoff the ring effectively are perhaps the biggest detriments to Canelo's chances of winning this fight. Unlike Jacobs, who was able to have success vs. Golovkin largely due to effective foot movement and the ability to box while backing up, Canelo is relatively flat-footed and likely will not be able to evade Golovkin's pressure. Canelo is adept at avoiding punches from close distance with savvy upper body movement and a tight guard but - due to his lack of consistent foot movement - he will be within range of Golovkin's power punching for significant stretches of the fight; it's highly unlikely he will be able to elude Golovkin's accurate (and often overwhelming) power punches for a full 12 rounds. Golovkin will land clean power punches... the key question here is how well Canelo - who has never fought anyone possessing anything close to Golovkin's punching power before - takes those punches while executing his own counterpunching attack. While Canelo may come in to the fight a bit bigger than Golovkin in terms of weight, Golovkin is physically stronger and (perhaps by a much wider margin than people think) has the superior punching power. Canelo's defense is above average and has improved greatly over the course of his career, but he is limited (especially in terms of speed and his lack of foot movement) and almost certainly will (eventually) get caught with flush punching from Golovkin.

Canelo is an aggressive counterpuncher but Golovkin is - both by nature and by design - the more aggressive, relentless fighter; it is highly likely that he will both thrown and land more punches that the relatively patient, low-output Canelo. Canelo is further hampered in this regard with his noted stamina issues; he is notorious for often taking stretches of rounds off  (e.g., retreating to the corner of the ring, decreasing his punch output) to preserve energy. This is something he was able to get away with vs. smaller fighters with less punching power but likely won't be able to at middleweight vs. a stalking pressure fighter like Golovkin who perhaps has the most effective punching power in the sport. Note that even a smaller Floyd Mayweather - notorious for his cautious, defensive style and known to have hand issues that mitigate his punching power - was able to be the aggressor and effectively walk Canelo down in numerous spots during their fight; Golovkin is not as skilled as Mayweather but it's difficult to imagine a substantially bigger, more aggressive fighter with superior punching power like Golovkin being less successful in pressuring Canelo than Mayweather.  

On the opposite side of the attack, Golovkin has faced - and beaten - bigger fighters and better punchers than Canelo; both Lemieux and Jacobs have greater punching power than Canelo at middleweight and Golovkin appeared to handle their power with ease. In addition to his incredible offensive attack, Golovkin has arguably the best chin in boxing - having never been stopped or even knocked down once in over 385(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Despite winning every round convincingly, Canelo did not come close to stopping the larger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; it's tough to imagine he'll come close to stopping a fighter in Golovkin who will likely display superior defense and perform much more effectively overall than Chavez did. 

There are doubts about how good Canelo really is - do his skills really match his hype and popularity? Canelo arguably lost highly competitive decision victories vs. Lara (one judge scored the fight for Lara), Austin Trout, and even Cotto - where many (including myself) felt the scorecards should've been much closer. There is a feeling by many that Canelo is overrated and that he isn't even the best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career; when Jacobs fought Golovkin last March he (like Canelo) was also a one-loss fighter who perhaps matches up better with Golovkin than Canelo ever could due to his superior punching power, naturally bigger body frame, and ability to box effectively on his feet. Jacobs is an underrated boxer whose skills arguably match - and overall perhaps are even superior - to those of Canelo.

Canelo is a highly talented boxer with the power and counter punching skills to be highly effective vs. Golovkin but moving up - not only in weight from the 147-155 lb fighters he's used to fighting - but in levels from Chavez in his last fight to one of the best middleweight fighters of this generation in Golovkin may be a case of Canelo biting off more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I do think Canelo is a live underdog in this fight, to the extent that I'd actually consider grading him as a favorite if I knew with certainty that he'd be able to handle Golovkin's power at least as well as Jacobs did last March. Canelo, who is in the prime of his career and seems to have improved with each fight, is the younger, better skilled boxer and has the elite counter punching ability inside to potentially outbox a pressuring Golovkin from close distance. Golovkin has proven that he has a fantastic chin, but he is relatively untested to the body; if Canelo can have success landing body shots inside that may be effective in mitigating Golovkin's attack. Canelo is the more accurate puncher with quicker hands than Golovkin; I fully expect that he will be able to compete in stretches with Golovkin in the early rounds, particularly on the inside. If Canelo - who has never been stopped or knocked down in a fight - can withstand Golovkin's pressure and last the full twelve rounds, history indicates that he could very well be given the benefit of the doubt on the judges' scorecards... especially given his judge-friendly, clean-punching style and the overwhelming crowd support he'll receive at T-Mobile Arena, which may also influence the judges.

With that said, I think there is a mismatch in effective power here that I think will be too much for Canelo to overcome. Canelo's chin has been solid at lower weights but Golovkin is by far the best power puncher Canelo has faced in his career, which I think will be more than enough to overcome Canelo's advantage in skill.

Canelo may be a better pure boxer than Golovkin, but so were Golovkin's last two opponents (Jacobs and Kell Brook last September). Like Canelo, Brook was a pound-for-pound ranked, big fighter for his weight division with elite skills who moved up in weight to challenge for Golovkin's middleweight titles. Brook - who I believe is a better boxer than Canelo - arguably outboxed Golovkin in the early rounds but got overwhelmed by Golovkin's power, forcing his corner to stop the fight in the 5th round.

As mentioned previously Golovkin struggled for portions of his fight vs. Jacobs but Jacobs, in my opinion, is a very underrated boxer who had the size, foot speed, and power as a true middleweight
to give Golovkin problems. Jacobs was also able to confuse Golovkin by giving him different looks (i.e., switching from orthodox to southpaw stance and vice-versa) at times during the fight. Unlike Jacobs, Canelo doesn't have the speed to elude Golovkin's pressure for twelve rounds and I doubt he has the power at middleweight (that he had at light middleweight and welterweight) to pose a real threat to a fighter in Golovkin who is arguably the best middleweight of this generation.

I also expect Canelo's noted issues with stamina to be a severe detriment vs. a stalking, pressure fighter like Golovkin; Canelo won't have the opportunities tonight that he's had in lower weight classes or vs. less-skilled opponents to conserve energy by taking breaks during rounds. Canelo's recent gain in muscle mass may also negatively affect his stamina, not to mention lessen the solid hand speed he's displayed at lower weights.

Given the power discrepancy in this matchup, along with Canelo's flat-footed boxing style and questionable stamina, I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO. If Canelo can't escape Golovkin's range and is unable to withstand his power, he doesn't stand much of a chance over the course of twelve rounds. However, the value (at -150) is so solid on Golovkin simply to win the fight (I'd personally grade this matchup at minimum -400 in favor of Golovkin) that I recommend placing the majority of the bet on this fight on Golovkin to win, with a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (which can currently be found as high as +160).

Canelo has been the beneficiary of generous scoring in his previous fights that have lasted twelve rounds, but note that these were generally fights where he was mostly the aggressor (most notably his controversial wins vs. Lara, Trout, and his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw). I see Golovkin's power largely dominating this fight and can't see Canelo being the aggressor for much of this fight even if he lasts the full twelve rounds.

I see Golovkin's power vs. Canelo's largely flat-footed style possibly being a bigger mismatch than what people are expecting (to the extent that this *could* end up being a very easy fight for Golovkin). But, in terms of high-profile, elite talent still at the peaks of their career, this is one of the better matchups we've seen in a long, long time so let's hope the fight lives up to the hype!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin to win (2 units) 
2) Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Jacobs: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (32-1, 29 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: March 18, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -825, Jacobs +650 (5 Dimes, 3/17/17)
Purse: Golovkin: $2.5 million, Jacobs: $1.75 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch (other notable fights: Lemieux vs. Stevens, Froch vs. Groves I, Golovkin vs. Proksa)

Why you should watch this fight

This is a fight between the two best middleweight boxers in the world - who also happen to be two of the best knockout artists in the sport - that is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed matchup. Saturday night will be a middleweight title unification bout between the undefeated WBA (Super), WBC, and IBF middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin - arguably the top fighter in boxing pound-for-pound - vs. WBA (Regular) middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs - a 32-1 fighter who hasn't lost a fight in over 6.5 years and is by far Golovkin's toughest middleweight opponent to date.

The winner of this fight will be the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and will be well on his way to becoming the first undisputed middleweight champion in over a decade (Jermain Taylor, 2006), pending a possible fight with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders later this year.

Golovkin has won 33 out of his 36 professional fights - including his last 23(!) fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 92%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. But Jacobs is a top-level boxer who has elite punching power in his own right, having won 29 out of his 33 professional fights - including his last 12 fights - by stoppage for a very impressive KO% of 88%. Jacobs - who just five years ago survived a rare form of bone cancer (which at one point left him unable to walk) to win a middleweight title in 2014 - will be fighting in his hometown of New York City. where he is 9-0 as a fighter (with all 9 of those victories coming via early-round stoppage).

Given the combination of world-class boxing skills and elite knockout power possessed by both fighters, this should be an electric one while it lasts.

The undercard of this fight features undefeated, current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound boxer Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez, a four-weight division champion who will be defending his super flyweight championship vs. Thai fighter Wisaksil Wangek.

Prefight Analysis

Many would consider Danny Jacobs to be a live underdog in this fight, especially given the sizable (+650) odds on him to upset Golovkin. He's won 12 straight fights - all by TKO/KO - and has looked impressive in most of those fights. He's a big middleweight with a decent size advantage over Gennady. Jacobs has faster hands and faster feet than Golovkin, and is one of the very few middleweights out there with the punching power to stop him. Jacobs is a versatile fighter with the skills to fight Golovkin from close range - a tactic which may be necessary to mitigate Golovkin's ability to generate punching power from distance - but also has the skills to box on his feet. Given Jacob's 3" reach advantage in this matchup, he may have some success boxing Golovkin from distance.

Jacobs is (perhaps by far) Golovkin's toughest opponent to date so you can't completely write him off, especially given that he will be fighting in front of a lot of friendly supporters in his hometown of New York City and the fact that, in life, he has defeated a much tougher opponent than Golovkin in overcoming a rare form of bone cancer that was expected to end his boxing career (and possibly his ability to walk or even his life).

But despite Jacob's advantages, particularly in size and speed, I think his deficit of a questionable chin vs. Golovkin's potentially all-time great punching power will be too much for even a fighter nicknamed the "Miracle Man" to overcome. Jacob's only loss of his professional career came via early-round stoppage vs. Dmitry Pirog, another Soviet boxer who - like Golovkin will attempt to do Saturday night - was able to effectively cut off the ring early and apply pressure vs. a mostly retreating Jacobs (though Jacobs was able to win arguably win three out of the first four rounds on the scorecards). Pirog, now a politician in Russia (his career ended early due to a debilitating back injury), was a highly talented, potentially elite boxer but did not have the skills or punching power of Golovkin.

Jacobs was also knocked down in the first round of his August 2015 fight vs. Sergio Mora, a notoriously feather-fisted puncher who has only 9 wins by TKO/KO in 35 career fights (for a KO% of 26%).

The knockdowns vs. Pirog and Mora don't necessarily prove that Jacobs is weak-chinned, but in assessing an elite pound-for-pound fighter in Golovkin - who has a middleweight-record 92% of his wins (including the last 23 wins) coming via TKO/KO - vs. a skilled but somewhat predictable fighter in Jacobs who has a questionable chin, you'd have to (strongly) favor Golovkin's proven power.

Jacobs has elite power of his own to be sure, but Golovkin has proven to have one of the best - if not the best - chins in boxing, having never been knocked down or knocked out in 386(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Golovkin has already very easily handled a fighter with comparable power to Jacobs (in David Lemieux) and also already easily handled a much more skilled fighter than Jacobs (in his last fight vs. Kell Brook, a fighter many would rate as top 10-15 pound-for-pound). Golovkin has also fought faster, more elusive fighters than Jacobs (see Willie Monroe Jr. as an example), yet had no problems cutting off the ring and catching up to them en route early-round TKO/KO victories.

Golovkin's combination of pressure and skill is special and unmatched in the boxing game right now. There will be quite a few spots in this fight where Golovkin and Jacobs trade punches -  you have to favor Golovkin's impressive power (and ability to generate that power from unpredictable angles) vs. Jacob's questionable chin over Jacob's also elite, if not somewhat straightforward, power vs. Golovkin's seemingly impeccable chin. Only 2 of Golovkin's 33 knockout victims have lasted past 8 rounds: Martin Murray - who had never been knocked down or knocked out in a fight prior to getting knocked down 3 times and stopped in the 11th round in his February 2015 fight vs. Golovkin - and  Kassim Ouma, who was known for having a great chin in his prime. (Ouma was stopped in the 10th round of a close, competitive fight with Golovkin back in June 2011.)

Given this, I think that the best bet on this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO in the early to mid rounds. But - given that Golovkin has never faced a fighter with Jacob's combination of skill and power and, given the fact that Jacobs is one of the few fighters Golovkin has fought that has a clear size advantage over him, I think it's also worth "hedging" this bet to an extent with a bet on the fight to last under 7.5 rounds. Golovkin will likely respect Jacob's power early (as he did vs. Lemieux) and won't necessarily apply full pressure until he establishes a read on Jacobs; this period of the fight would be Jacob's best chance to jump on Golovkin and land that punch (or combination of punches) that stops Golovkin early (which IMO may be the only way he can win this fight). Note that this "hedge" also wins if Golovkin stops Jacobs early.

I will be betting on Golovkin to win the fight in the first 6 rounds (at approximately +120 odds) but an alternate bet to very strongly consider is to instead bet Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 as well as Golovkin to win in rounds 7-9. This bet will return roughly 15% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6, and will return roughly 35% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9. The downside to this alternative bet is it doesn't cover Golovkin winning within the first 3 rounds, though I suspect Golovkin will fight more cautiously during that period of the fight anyway as he develops his read on Jacobs. (This alternative does, however, cover some of the later rounds of the fight in case the fight lasts a bit longer than expected.)

The combination bet of Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 and 7-9 may actually be the slightly more prudent bet given Golovkin's anticipated early round strategy, but I'm going with Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds for simplicity and because I have serious doubts whether Jacob's chin can hold up even through the first three rounds.

In any case, I'll be in New York City for this fight and am looking forward to an electric, post-St. Patrick's Day fight crowd as well as an overall fantastic card, which includes top pound-for-pound fighter Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez. Good luck!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin wins in rounds 1-6 (.5 unit)
[or alternative combination bet of Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6 (.25 unit) and Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9 (.25 unit)]
2) Golovkin/Jacobs U 7.5 rounds (.5 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Brook: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (35-0, 32 KOs) vs. Kell Brook (36-0, 25 KOs)
Location: O2 Arena (Millennium Dome), London, England
Date: September 10, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, IBF, IBO World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -570, Brook +480 (5 Dimes, 9/10/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked middleweight, Brook: #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Brook: Orthodox
Referee: Marlon Wright

Why you should watch this fight

Like the recent Terence Crawford/Viktor Postol and Leo Santa Cruz/Carl Frampton matchups, this will be a fight between two undefeated, top-rated boxers in their prime. Golovkin is widely considered the most feared puncher in boxing and is already considered by some to be one of the great middleweights in the history of the sport. This afternoon he'll be matched up against Brook, a legitimate A-level, top pound-for-pound fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has faced in his professional career.  

Although a very big welterweight, this will be Brook's first fight at middleweight after fighting nearly his entire career in the welterweight (147 lbs) division. Can Brook - as fellow Brit Amir Khan unsuccessfully attempted to do before him in May vs. Canelo Alvarez - become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? Or will Golovkin get the stoppage in a hostile environment (the fight is in Brook's home country of England) vs. an undefeated fighter who's never been stopped before and bolster his claim as one of the great middleweights in boxing history?

Arguably the three best middleweights in the world (Golovkin, Alvarez, and Danny Jacobs) are fighting over the course of the next week; Kell Brook may actually be a more skilled boxer than all three. But this coming week is an excellent opportunity to get a good look at fighters who likely will be involved in some intriguing megafights within the middleweight division in the very near future.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and IBO middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #3 boxer in the world. He is undefeated at 35-0 and, with 32 KOs in 35 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage  (91.4%) in middleweight history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over six years and has won his last 22 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 16 of which were middleweight title defenses.

Golovkin is the strong betting favorite in Saturday's fight for several reasons. As the reigning middleweight champion who has successfully defended his title(s) 16 times over the course of a little over six years (currently the 7th longest reign in middleweight history), Golovkin is a much more experienced fighter in the middleweight division  than Brook, a career welterweight who is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career vs. an opponent some already consider to be one of the great middleweight boxers of all time.

Golovkin is naturally bigger, physically stronger, and possesses much more punching power than Brook - whose power at welterweight was good (25 KOs in 36 fights), but not considered great. A big question for this fight is how Brook's power at welterweight will translate to the middleweight division vs. an opponent in Golovkin who seemed unfazed when up against bigger, more dangerous power punchers than Brook (see Golovkin's fights vs. David Lemieux and Marco Antonio Rubio) and has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 fights as an amateur and pro.

Golovkin is notorious for his outstanding punching power but he is also a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skills that are arguably superior to Brook's. Golovkin is an intelligent pressure fighter with one of the better jabs in boxing to compliment his methodical, accurate combination punching. He has impeccable balance in his movement and is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Golovkin's pressure should be effective vs. Brook - who is mobile enough but not known for his foot speed, which could be slower than usual given the additional weight he's put on moving up two weight classes to middleweight. Brook is also known for tiring in the mid to late rounds of fights, which plays into Golovkin's pressure style.

Golovkin is not as quick or as fast as Brook but he controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing, which should at least be somewhat effective in mitigating Brook's hand and foot speed advantages. Golovkin's pressure and physical size advantage could wear on the smaller Brook, who in previous fights has been effectively pressured and outmuscled by smaller, less skilled boxers than Golovkin. (See the later rounds of Brook's first fight vs. Carson Jones as a primary example.)

Brook is a top-level, pound-for-pound caliber boxer who - given Golovkin's aggressive style and at times willingness to trade punches - will be effective in spots with counters and body shots but Golovkin has been unfazed when facing boxers with significantly more dangerous punching power so there may not be enough in Brook's offensive arsenal to deter the expected Golovkin onslaught.  

Why Kell Brook will win

Like Golovkin, Brook is an undefeated fighter in his prime who - while not currently ranked on the Ring Magazine Top 10 pound-for-pound list - is widely considered one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world. Brook is a slick, versatile fighter with good power in both hands. He is a highly intelligent, adaptive fighter who can box either in an aggressive, come forward style or box on his feet relying on his timing and counter punching as needed.

At approximately 6-1 odds, Brook is a sizable underdog vs. Golovkin but he has several advantages in his favor. Brook is a legitimate, top-level fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has fought in his professional career; many would actually consider Brook a better fighter than Golovkin in terms of pure boxing skill. Golovkin has dominated all of his opponents thus far in his professional career but he's never fought anyone of Brook's caliber so it will be interesting to see how he fares in this matchup. To give perspective, Golovkin has never fought a top 50 pound-for-pound fighter in his career; Brook is considered by most to be one of the top 10-15 boxers in the world.

Brook has clear hand and foot speed advantages over Golovkin. If Brook can effectively maintain distance vs. Golovkin's pressure he could outbox GGG in stretches by beating him to the punch with jabs (and Brook is known to have one of the better jabs in boxing) and well-timed counters.

Brook is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career but he's always been a very big welterweight with excellent strength for his size. Brook's normal walk around weight is actually around 175-180 pounds (light heavyweight to cruiser division weight) so it may not be as much of a problem as some anticipate for him to fight at 160 pounds, which may even be a more comfortable weight for him than welterweight. I wouldn't be surprised if Brook's power and stamina carry up to middleweight better than expected to the point where he may even be an improved fighter, given that he doesn't have to drain nearly as much weight to make weight at 160 pounds as he did at 147.

Brook is a strong, physical fighter who in previous fights has effectively outmuscled other physically strong welterweights like Shawn Porter. (Porter even had experience fighting at middleweight and in terms of pure physical strength is probably stronger than Golovkin.) Brook had success mitigating Porter's (typically rough-house) inside attack by using his strength to clinch and smother Porter when Porter jumped inside; it would not be too surprising if Brook can similarly frustrate Golovkin by clinching inside on him when he comes into range.  

This fight is taking place in Brook's home country of England, in a sold-out O2 arena in front of a raucous crowd that will be loudly cheering on the hometown boxer. As demonstrated countless amounts of times in big fights, home crowd support sometimes affects both the fighting inside the ring and the judging outside of it, usually in the favor of the hometown fighter.

Brook does have some holes in his defense where he does not reset to the correct defensive position quick enough (which sometimes leaves him open for clean counters), but he has only been knocked down once (in the 1st round of a 2007 fight vs. Karl David) and has never been stopped in his professional career. Most are expecting Golovkin to stop Brook but Brook does have enough skill and elusive foot movement to go 12 rounds vs. Golovkin  even if he does end up being outclassed.

Prefight Analysis

Kell Brook will have his opportunities in this afternoon's fight and may perform better than most expect. As he's already been fighting as a super huge welterweight I don't think the jump in weight classes to middleweight will be nearly as much of a detriment as some think and in many ways may actually improve aspects of his performance (e.g., less weight to drain prefight may lessen his tendency to tire in later rounds) as he will be fighting much closer to his true weight . Brook may actually be the better pure boxer in this matchup; his A-level skills combined with his speed advantage and ability to adjust his fighting style and even his stance (e.g., from orthodox to southpaw) during the course of a fight presents Golovkin with multiple problems he has not yet faced in his professional career. Given this, taking Brook to win by 12-round decision at 9-1 odds *could* have some value.

But honestly I don't this fight being competitive past maybe the early rounds. Many see the two weight class jump as the main problem for Brook. I disagree given that Brook is a naturally bigger guy anyway - I think he will fill out at 160 pounds and adjust to that weight without too much difficulty. Brook's main problems lie in what I think will be a clear disparity between him and Golovkin in terms of chin and overall defensive ability. Brook is an outstanding offensive fighter with with pretty good power and a clear hand speed advantage vs. Golovkin; he should be able to land some quality punches in spots but I don't see his punching having much of an effect on Golovkin - especially considering that Golovkin has already faced much harder hitting opponents at middleweight and effectively stymied their power en route to easy TKO/KO victories. Golovkin - who again has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 amateur and professional fights - has a proven iron chin and impeccable balance defensively to the point where he should be able to handle Brook's varied offensive attack without too much difficulty.

So the question then is how well will Brook be able handle Golovkin's deadly mix of pressure, offensive skill, and power? At welterweight, Brook has never faced a fighter with Golovkin's punching power; while Brook has pretty good elusive mobility, Golovkin is excellent at cutting off the ring even vs. more mobile opponents and will eventually catch up to Brook. Brook has a good chin but has been bloodied and effectively pressured multiple times at welterweight - even vs. fighters not particularly known for their punching power. Facing an undefeated, top-level champion at middleweight who is perhaps the best power puncher the sport has seen in years I think - somewhat similar to Khan when he fought Canelo - it's only a matter of time before Brook gets caught. If Brook had Khan's ultra-quick hands and foot speed I actually think he'd probably last the full 12 rounds vs. Golovkin but Brook - while having better balance and chin than Khan - isn't nearly as elusive as Khan and will be forced to fight within Golovkin's range for stretches of the fight.

Brook is slick with more speed than Golovkin so may have his moments early but - with the exception of maybe the highly elusive Erislandy Lara - Golovkin vs. any current fighter from 154 to 168 pounds having to trade shots with Golovkin the smart money is on Golovkin by TKO/KO... perhaps not in the early rounds but think Golovkin will be able to overwhelm him by the mid to later rounds.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

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Golovkin vs. Lemieux: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (33-0, 30 KOs) vs. David Lemieux (34-2, 31 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: October 17, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World, IBO World, WBA Super World, and interim WBC World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -1575, Lemieux +1250 (5 Dimes, 10/17/15)
Purse: Golovkin: $2 million, Lemieux: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Lemieux: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Lemieux: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Positives for Golovkin
Negatives for Golovkin
Positives for Lemieux
Negatives for Lemieux
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Golovkin

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight and reigning WBA Super and IBO middleweight champion. Undefeated at 33-0 and, with 30 KOs in 33 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (90.9%) in middleweight history. Has won his last 20 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 14 of which were middleweight title defenses. Named Ring Magazine fighter of the year in 2013 after four impressive KO victories that year. 
• Offensively gifted boxer who possesses elite KO power in both hands. Golovkin's 90.9% KO percentage (30 KOs in 33 fights) ranks first among all active current and former champions and ranks second overall in championship history. Often generates his power from wide, looping punches thrown from unorthodox angles (which have the dual effect of providing extra leverage on his punches and increasing his unpredictability). Has the potential to go down as one of the great power punchers in the history of the sport. 
• Intelligent pressure fighter who is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing. Despite being a pressure fighter, Golovkin is also a very patient, efficient boxer who tends not to waste punches. 
•  Mostly known for his outstanding power but is a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skill. Golovkin does not have great hand speed but makes up for it with an outstanding jab and methodical, accurate combination punching. Golovkin lands more jabs per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter, and other than ultra-aggressive super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz, Golovkin lands more overall punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter. 
•  Possesses an excellent chin. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out in 383 fights as an amateur and pro. 
• Has an impressive amateur pedigree, with 345 wins (including wins vs. Andre Dirrell, Lucian Bute, and Andy Lee) against only 5 losses. Won a silver medal medal for his native Kazakhstan in the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. 
• Trains with Abel Sanchez, a very underrated trainer who has trained numerous former champions including Terry Norris, Olin Norris, Carlos Baldomir, and Samuel Peter. 
• Will be fighting his fourth fight in nearly three years at Madison Square Garden in New York City. As one of the most popular fighters in the sport with a fan-friendly style, the crowd at Madison Square Garden is expected to be overwhelmingly pro-Golovkin.

Negatives for Golovkin

• Golovkin is fighting likely his toughest opponent to date in Lemieux, a younger fighter who may actually be naturally stronger than Golovkin. Golovkin has never fought a true top-tier talent and is untested vs. Lemieux's combination of power and skill.   
• Does Golovkin have the stamina to fight effectively in later rounds? Out of 33 professional fights, Golovkin has only gone to the 10th round twice in his career and only fought past the 6th round seven other times. 
• While applying pressure vs. his opponents, Golovkin sometimes has shown susceptibility to getting caught with clean counter punches (was caught a few times in his last fight vs. Willie Monroe Jr. and most notably in the 3rd round of his fight vs. July 2014 fight vs. Geale right before knocking him out). Golovkin has a great chin but often focuses more on offense than protecting himself defensively, so at times is open to be hit when he drops his guard. Lemieux is widely considered one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport and will likely be looking to knock Golovkin out; an upset TKO/KO victory is a very realistic possibility if he can land even one power shot cleanly.
• Golovkin is being promoted as possibly the next big star in boxing but he is 33 years old (over six years younger than Lemieux) and likely is towards the end of the prime of his career. 
• Though known as a pressure fighter, Golovkin is sometimes cautious in the first couple of rounds while adjusting to his opponent's style. By contrast, Lemieux is generally a very fast starter; Lemieux may be able to gain some initial momentum (and perhaps even win the fight early) by jumping on Golovkin from the opening bell.
• Is not quite as good a boxer fighting inside as he is from distance, as shown at times in his January 2013 fight vs. Gabriel Rosado and early in his fight vs. Geale. If the highly aggressive, wild-swinging Lemieux can get inside and turn the fight into a brawl he may have a chance of making the fight competitive.
• While highly accurate and efficient, Golovkin does not possess great speed or quickness, though he will have a slight advantage in both areas vs. Lemieux.

Positives for Lemieux

• Current IBF World middleweight champion. Explosive puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. Is widely considered one of the best power punchers in the sport, with 31 out of his 34 victories coming via TKO/KO; Lemieux's 86.1% KO ratio is among the highest in boxing. Overall, Lemieux is one of the best offensive fighters in the sport and will always have at least a puncher's chance vs. any opponent.
• Relentless, aggressive puncher who fully commits to most power punches. Despite some wild swinging at times, actually tends to be an accurate puncher with underrated boxing skills. Can generate power both from distance and on the inside (largely due to superior lower body strength) and is a strong finisher once he has his opponent in trouble.   
• Is currently in the prime of his career and appears to have improved (particularly on the defensive end) since losing two consecutive fights in 2011 (the only two losses of his career). Since 2011, Lemieux has won nine straight fights - seven by TKO and the other two by wide unanimous decision. Lemieux was only 22 years old when he suffered the only losses of his career; he has matured and gained experience vs. solid competition since then.
• At 26, Lemieux is the younger fighter by several (over six) years and is arguably naturally stronger than Golovkin. (Golovkin has never faced an opponent with comparable power to his own.) Lemieux is also typically a fast starter who was way ahead early even in his two losses back in 2011; if Lemieux can establish early momentum vs. Golovkin (who is sometimes cautious in the very early rounds), that may be enough to set the stage for an upset TKO/KO victory. 
• Lemieux is a mobile fighter with decent foot speed and quickness; will likely be able to evade Golovkin's attack in spots. 
• Tough, courageous fighter as evidenced by the fact he is one of very few top middleweights actually willing to fight Golovkin.

Negatives for Lemieux

• Lemieux does have two losses in his career - consecutive losses in his hometown of Montreal vs. opponents who entered the fights as substantial underdogs. Lemieux's first loss was an April 2011 7th-round TKO loss to Marco Antonio Rubio (who Golovkin easily defeated last year by 2nd-round KO); his second loss was in December 2011 to Joachim Alcine, who after beating Lemieux would go on to lose his next five fights. 
• Lemieux has shown questionable stamina in previous fights, in particular his two losses where he was worn down in middle and later rounds after jumping out to strong starts. Lemieux has a history of overexpending energy with his aggressive, haymaker style in the early rounds only to tire in later rounds. If Golovkin - who is widely considered to have one of the best chins in boxing (as he has never been knocked down or knocked out in 383 professional and amateur fights) - can withstand Lemieux's attack through the first half of the fight, the second half of the fight could be relatively easy for him; despite Lemieux's high KO% he only has one victory by TKO/KO in his career after the 7th round.  
• Although an underrated boxer, is inferior to Golovkin in terms of boxing skill and IQ. Has a straightforward, somewhat predictable boxing style and generally doesn't make too many adjustments over the course of a fight; one would expect Golovkin to eventually find holes in Lemieux's at times overaggressive, wild-swinging style.   
• Although seemingly improved over the past 3-4 years, Lemieux is still defensively flawed with a questionable chin. As a come-forward pressure fighter, he will at times leave himself open to clean counterpunching, which could be disastrous vs. arguably the best puncher in the sport in Golovkin. Lemieux was knocked down and suffered a TKO loss (via corner throwing in the towel) vs. Rubio; Golovkin is a more skilled boxer than Rubio and certainly possesses the power to look more dominant vs. Lemieux than Rubio did.

Prefight Summary

Tonight's Golovkin vs. Lemieux fight is intriguing as, on one hand, most think this fight is basically a mismatch that Lemieux has very little chance of winning yet, on the other hand, many of those same people think this will be a a can't miss, back-and-forth slugfest.

If the latter is true, then certainly Lemieux has a very realistic puncher's chance to win. Statistically, Lemieux is right up there with Golovkin as one of the top pound-for-pound punchers in the sport; Lemieux will have multiple opportunities to counter Golovkin's "Mexican style" attack with his patented haymakers. If any one of his power punches lands cleanly, even a seemingly "concrete" chin such as Golovkin's could succumb to Lemieux's power. (The fact of the matter is, Golovkin's chin has never been tested vs. a boxer with Lemieux's combination of skill, speed, and devastating power so we really don't know how his chin will hold up when truly tested.) Lemieux is the younger, arguably naturally stronger fighter in the prime of his career who has won his last nine fights and - unlike most other top middleweights - was confident enough to take the fight vs.Golovkin.

If this fight turns into the slugfest many think it will be then Lemieux - one of the elite sluggers in boxing - no doubt has at least a puncher's chance to win.

But, at the end of the day, what we have here is a boxing match (not the "street fight" Golovkin has stated he will happily be willing to engage in) and the disparity in boxing skills is why Golovkin should be the clear favorite to win.

Both boxers are aggressive pressure fighters but I like Golovkin's cautious aggressiveness to dictate this matchup. Golovkin will be more willing to wait for spots where he can exploit Lemieux's at times wild-swinging overaggressiveness with well-timed counters. Golovkin also has superior balance and footwork that will likely enable him to stay on his feet during the inevitable exchange of punches between the two heavy-handed boxers. Although Golovkin's chin has never been tested by anyone with Lemieux's power, the fact that Golovkin has never even come close to being knocked down or out in 383 amateur and professional fights is certainly strong evidence that his chin is legit.

Lemieux may very well succeed in jumping on Golovkin and landing some punches early, but it's difficult to overlook the fact that he has lost to and been forced to quit vs. boxers with far less skill than Golovkin; I very much expect that he'll be forced to quit again in the early to middle rounds of tonight's fight vs. a boxer in Golovkin who may be well on his way to becoming one of the all-time great middleweights in boxing history.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO (2 units) 

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