Fight: Manny Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 5, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: Top Rank PPV
Line: Pacquiao -570, Vargas +480 (
5 Dimes, 11/5/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: not ranked (due to brief retirement), Vargas:
#8 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless
Why you should watch this fight
To see if the recently unretired and current Philippine Senator Manny Pacquiao can reclaim his previously perennial status atop the welterweight division (and as one of the elite boxers pound-for-pound) by beating current WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas... or if the younger, technically skilled, and highly confident Vargas can pull off the defining win of his career by defeating one of the great boxers in the history of the sport in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas (where he has lived and trained since he was a child).
Pacquiao is not quite the electrifying fighter he was in his prime but - based on his impressive unanimous decision victory last April vs. Timothy Bradley - he still has elite speed and very good power, which should provide for an entertaining matchup with the scrappy, former two-time Mexican national champion Vargas, who likes to fight inside and will likely be willing to trade power punches with Pacquiao.
Pacquiao spent over 600 weeks (over 12 years) in the
Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 rankings before dropping off earlier this year due to a brief retirement; a convincing win vs. Vargas will likely return him to top pound-for-pound status.
This fight will be shown on PPV, though will be televised by Top Rank PPV instead of HBO, who had been under contract to televise Pacquiao's fights. HBO declined to televise this fight due in part to lack of interest in the matchup with Vargas and to avoid clustering the HBO boxing schedule (Andre Ward/Sergey Kovalev PPV on November 19th and the now-canceled Fury/Klitschko matchup that had been scheduled for October 29th.)
Loquacious ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith will make debut as a boxing color analyst for this fight, commentating alongside Brian Kenny, who will serve as the blow-by-blow announcer. Tim Bradley, who fought Pacquiao in his last fight this past April and who fought Vargas back in 2015, will also serve as an analyst for the fight.
Why Manny Pacquiao will win
Pacquiao is universally considered one of the best boxers in the history of the sport and, alongside Floyd Mayweather Jr., is one of the top two boxers of this generation. Judging by his performance this past April vs. Bradley - a possible future hall-of-famer who was coming off of an impressive TKO victory of granite-chinned Brandon Rios - Pacquiao is likely still one of the elite fighters in the sport. The freakish, next-level athleticism and talent that made Pacquiao a global icon is for the most part still there.
Although more than 10 years older, Pacquiao still has clear and significant hand speed and power advantages over Vargas, who has shown some solid power in his last couple of fights but only has 10 KOs in 28 career fights (36%). Pacquiao is an ambush-style fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although not quite as fast or as strong as he was in his prime, it would be shocking if Pacquiao doesn't consistently beat the much slower Vargas to the punch with his speed and evade Vargas's pocket attack with his head movement and footwork, both of which are still amongst the best in boxing.
The 5'10" Vargas possesses a 4.5" height advantage and 4" reach advantage over Pacquiao, but Manny has had great success in previous fights vs. taller fighters with significant reach advantage (see his fights vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito, 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya, and 5'10" Chris Algieri who were all dominated by Pacquiao despite their height and a 5" reach advantage). Vargas is a solid, technically skilled fighter but his attack will likely be somewhat stymied vs. Pacquiao (as it was vs. 5'6" Tim Bradley) as he will at times have to bend over and adjust the angles at which he naturally throws punches to land clean punches vs. his shorter opponent.
With clear disadvantages in speed, power, talent, athleticism, and experience, Vargas's chances lie largely on whether he can time Pacquiao and land a big right hand to set up a TKO/KO upset - as he did in his last fight in a 9th round TKO victory vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali and as he almost did late in the 12th round of his June 2015 fight vs. Bradley when he stunned Bradley with a big right hook. But Pacquiao is a highly experienced fighter who has actually fought a much more cautious and defensively responsible style since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012; Pacquiao is better than he was even in his prime at keeping his guard up and still has very good head movement so it will be tough even for a skilled, classic Mexican-style boxer like Vargas to catch him with a big shot (especially given the speed disparity).
There's also the question of how much Pacquiao has really fallen off over the past few years. While obviously not the KO king he was in his prime (though the lack of KOs can mostly be attributed to fighting guys who are naturally bigger than him at welterweight), his performances have still generally been top-level; Pacquiao's only losses in the last 4.5 years came vs. 1) an undefeated Tim Bradley in a split decision loss that the vast majority of boxing fans, experts, and media felt Pacquiao won decisively, 2) a KO loss to Marquez that Pacquiao was winning decisively and looking to finish early before getting caught with a big punch, and 3) a unanimous decision loss to a boxer widely considered the best fighter of this generation, Floyd Mayweather - a fight where he was able to win 4 rounds on 2 out of 3 of the judges' scorecards despite (at least according to Pacquiao) having an injured right shoulder. It can easily be argued that Pacquiao's skills haven't deteriorated nearly as much as people think and that he's (at 37 years old) maybe even the best welterweight in the world right now with Mayweather retired from the sport.
Vargas is a good boxer and the current WBO welterweight champion but thus far in his career hasn't shown anything special to suggest that he would be a threat to upset Pacquiao. The best win of Vargas's career was his most recent fight vs. unbeaten, but unproven contender Sadam Ali and he lost convincingly in his 2015 fight vs. Timothy Bradley, a fighter Pacquiao has beaten convincingly twice (arguably three times). Over the past 17 years (spanning 38 fights), Pacquiao's only losses have been competitive losses to hall-of-fame caliber opponents (Mayweather, Marquez, Erik Morales, and possibly Bradley); Vargas is very widely considered a level (or two) below these caliber of fighters.
Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas - where Vargas has lived and trained for several years - the fan-friendly and still extremely popular Pacquiao is the main attraction for this fight and will be the overwhelming crowd favorite, which sometimes affects (in favor of the crowd favorite) the action inside the ring and the judging outside of it.
Even with the personal and political distractions in his life, Pacquiao has always been an unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights. But for less experienced Vargas this is his first time headlining a PPV card; it's unclear how the atmosphere and pressure surrounding his first PPV fight will affect him.
Why Jessie Vargas will win
Vargas is the current WBO welterweight champion of the world and is coming off of the best win of his career, a 9th round TKO vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali, who was undefeated at the time.
Vargas is a very skilled, well-rounded, aggressive boxer with a good jab, good reach (4" reach advantage over Pacquiao), and what has recently proven to be a dangerous right hand. With only a 36% KO percentage Vargas isn't known for his power, but in his last couple of fights his big right hand led to an upset TKO victory of Ali and allowed him to stun and nearly knock down Bradley late in the 12th round of their fight in 2015. While not as reckless as he was in his prime, Pacquiao is still a highly aggressive fighter; if Vargas can time Pacquiao's attack, even one big counter right hand from Vargas could be devastating for Pacquiao. Pacquiao has proven at times to be susceptible to right hand counters (most notably Marquez's overhand right to stop Pacquiao in 2012 though Marquez had plenty of success with right hand counters in all four matchups with Pacquiao).
Vargas is the younger fighter (by over 10 years) in the middle of his prime while Pacquiao - though still arguably elite - is several years past his prime and highly prone to slippage at this point in his career, especially given that his highly aggressive fighting style depends largely on a freakish athleticism that will inevitably deteriorate as he gets older. Pacquiao has generally fought well in recent fights but the fact remains he has lost 3 out of his last 7 fights (over 40% of his fights over the past 4.5 years). If we see further slippage from Pacquiao it would certainly open the door for the fresher, highly confident Vargas.
A classic Mexican-styled boxer, Vargas is a tough, scrappy fighter who has never been stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career (in the 3rd round of a fight he came back to win comfortably by unanimous decision). Vargas may be able to handle Pacquiao's power better than most expect; if so the newly found power in Vargas's right hand will present a huge threat to Manny's attacking, come-forward style over the course of the entire 12 rounds.
Pacquiao will be the overwhelming crowd favorite but this fight is talking place in Las Vegas, where Vargas has lived with his family and trained since he was a child; despite the potentially hostile environment at the Thomas & Mack Center, fighting in his adopted hometown should add an element of comfort for Vargas.
Prefight Analysis
Vargas is an underrated talent but I can't give him more than a puncher's chance to win this fight. It's true that Pacquiao is not the fighter he once was - not as strong, not as fast, and doesn't throw as many punches as he used to - but based on the performance we saw just seven months ago against an A-level fighter in Tim Bradley (a fighter who beat Vargas decisively), Pacquiao is still (at least) a level above Vargas in terms of speed, power, and skill.
Pacquiao will consistently beat Vargas to the punch and frustrate him with his speed, movement, and ability to land power punches cleanly from unexpected angles. Vargas was hit consistently and cleanly by Bradley in their 2015 fight (Bradley landed 49% of his power shots over the last six rounds of the fight) and he even had trouble in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Ali's offensive attack so he'll really be up against it facing a fighter who lands cleaner, faster, and harder than any other opponent he's faced in his career.
Vargas has a clear size and reach advantage but Pacquiao historically has looked even more impressive vs. bigger, taller, rangier fighters (see Pacquiao's fights vs. De La Hoya, Margarito, and Algieri) due at least in part to taller fighters having more difficulty being able to adjust angles to land cleanly vs. shorter, elusive opponents like Pacquiao.
Vargas is tough and durable, but is a basic and somewhat predictable 1-2 puncher who will likely be overwhelmed by Pacquiao's speedy 3-5+ punch combinations and ability to get out of the pocket before Vargas has a chance to counter. Vargas has shown improved power in recent fights but Pacquiao in recent years has been a much more cautious, defensively responsible fighter than he was in his prime; I see Pacquiao being careful to keep his guard up (as he's done in all recent fights since the Marquez KO) and not allow Vargas to set traps and time him with a big right hand.
In my opinion, the only question in this fight is whether Pacquiao wins this fight by a wide unanimous decision or by stoppage. Pacquiao's A-level skills, speed, and power vs. a relatively inexperienced Vargas's pocket-oriented, somewhat flat-footed style makes a stoppage a very real possibility. But Vargas is a gritty, durable boxer who's never been stopped in his career in against a fighter in Pacquiao who's punch output has decreased dramatically over his past several fights and hasn't stopped anyone in nearly seven years. (Pacquiao's last stoppage came in November 2009 vs. a slightly weight drained Miguel Cotto.) While a knockout is a very realistic possibility (due to Vargas's non-elusive, flat-footed style and discrepancy in skill, speed, and power), I like Vargas's larger, durable, younger frame to last 12 rounds vs. a more cautious-as-of-late Pacquiao who doesn't seem to have the killer instinct he had in his prime.
Pacquiao is a hyper-aggressive fighter who is still at times defensively irresponsible; while I expect Pacquiao to win this fight easily, at odds better than 16-1, I do think it's well worth it to hedge a bet on Pacquiao with Vargas to win by stoppage given Vargas's grit and the respectable power he's shown in recent fights.
Prediction: Pacquiao by unanimous decision
Recommended bets: 1) Pacquiao by unanimous decision (1.5 units)
2) Vargas by TKO/KO (.3 unit)
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