Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KOs) vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KOs)
Location:  Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut
Date: September 26, 2020
Weight class: Middleweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight title
TV/Stream: Showtime PPV
Line (Bovada): Charlo: -185, Derevyanchenko: +150  (9/25/20)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Charlo: #3-ranked middleweight, Derevyanchenko: #4-ranked middleweight
Style: Charlo: Orthodox, Derevyanchenko: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Jermall Charlo vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko will likely give boxing fans a much better sense of where these two elite middleweights fall within the pecking order of the division - especially Charlo, who some observers feel could prove in the very near future to be the best middleweight in the world. An impressive win by the slightly-favored Charlo in this weekend's matchup would further confirm the feelings of some that Charlo poses the biggest threat at middleweight to current pound-for-pound #1 and Ring Magazine lineal/WBA Super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez should he come back down from higher weight classes to fight in the division. 

Charlo, the current WBC middleweight champion, sports an impressive 30-0 record and he - along with his identical twin brother, WBC super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo - have risen in recent years to become among the most well-known names in the sport. Despite his perfect record and having won world titles in two different weight classes (Jermall Charlo held the IBF super welterweight title from 2015 to 2017 before vacating it to move up to middleweight), Charlo has never received serious consideration as one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport due in large part to lack of notable opponents on his resume. (A past prime Austin Trout and a chinny Julian Williams have been his two toughest opponents thus far in his career.)  A stoppage or clear unanimous decision victory vs. a widely-respected, elite middleweight in Derevyanchenko could be the fight that moves Charlo into the pound-for-pound rankings and on the precipice of becoming a boxing superstar.   

After very close decision losses to Daniel Jacobs and Golovkin (a split decision loss to Jacobs and unanimous decision loss to Golovkin in a fight that many - myself included - felt won), Derevyanchenko hopes his third time challenging for the middleweight championship is the charm in a fight almost universally considered the toughest challenge of Charlo's career. Despite only having 15 professional fights with an unremarkable record of 13-2, Derevyanchenko is a seasoned boxing veteran with over 400 amateur fights and a fighter who some, despite only being six years and 15 fights into his professional career, would argue beat both Jacobs and Golovkin. If Derevyanchenko upsets Charlo, he stakes his claim as potentially the best middleweight in the world and sets himself up for lucrative PPV matchups with other elite 160-pounders. If he wins the WBC belt from Charlo, Derevyanchenko - even with the promotional roadblocks that would make it a difficult fight to make - could be an opponent that entices Canelo to come back down to middleweight to unify titles, given Derevyanchenko's come-forward, pressuring style that many feel Canelo's excellent counter punching skills would match up very well against. 

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko is the first of two main events in a unique "double" card taking place on Showtime PPV this Saturday night. Five of the six televised fights on the card will be world title fights and will feature notable fighters such as Charlo's twin brother (and current WBC super welterweight champion) Jermell, undefeated former WBC bantamweight titlist Luis Nery, and current undefeated WBA super bantamweight titlist Brandon Figueroa. Jermall's WBC middleweight title defense vs. Derevyanchenko will headline the first portion of the PPV, while Jermell's unification title fight with WBA and IBF champion Jeison Rosario will headline the second portion. Saturday night's double PPV card is widely considered one of the most stacked PPV cards in numerous years.   

Prefight Analysis

When this fight was first announced, I was inclined to believe that Derevyanchenko to win (as a slight underdog) would probably be the best bet. Even with exactly half as many professional fights as Charlo, Derevyanchenko has the vastly superior experience vs. top-level opposition at middleweight, given his close (and highly debatable) losses over the past two years to Jacobs and pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin. Even unheralded middleweight Jack Culcay, a German boxer Derevyanchenko beat by unanimous decision in 2019 on the undercard of the Caleb Truax vs. Peter Quillin fight in Minnesota, could arguably be considered a better opponent than any middleweight Charlo has fought to date. (Culcay is currently ranked the #8 middleweight boxer in the world by BoxRec.) Charlo has fought five times at middleweight since vacating his super welterweight title in 2017, and has yet to fight a top-10 ranked middleweight opponent. Charlo has also failed to impress in most of his recent fights at middleweight, most notably his 2018 unanimous decision victory vs. Matvey Korobov that some felt should have been scored for Korobov.

Derevyanchenko is a technically sound pressure fighter whose relatively short (5'9")  stature may work to his advantage in Saturday's fight to enable him to duck under Charlo's attack and score effectively on the inside, as he did for stretches vs. both Golovkin and Jacobs. At 34 years old and with those two losses in recent PPV title fights, one would think that the sense of urgency will definitely be there Saturday night for Derevyanchenko, as this third title shot could be the last chance he gets to win a major belt, given his age and the wars he's been through in recent years. 

Derevyanchenko is a gritty, determined fighter with the superior experience and - despite the losses - has arguably looked more impressive at middleweight than Charlo ever has. At least on the surface, betting on Derevyanchenko to win straight up (+150) or by decision (+275)  as an underdog would seem to be very solid value, especially given that Charlo is still unproven at the elite level and to date  has faced no one near Derevyanchenko's caliber at middleweight.

But, despite the unknowns about Charlo at middleweight, I still like Jermall in this matchup. Styles make fights and I think at the end of the day, Derevyanchenko's style of pressure won't fare well vs. Charlo's defensively responsible style and physical metrics. Although Charlo previously fought as a super welterweight (154 lbs), his size and power have carried very well up to 160 lbs to the point where he can be considered a big middleweight who could likely compete for a world title as a super middleweight (168 lbs) in the near future. Charlo is bigger, stronger, and faster than Derevyanchenko - and has an elite power jab that I expect will control the tempo of the fight given Charlo's significant 6" reach advantage. In addition to a jab that's one of the best in boxing (and has been one of the best in boxing for a few years now), Charlo is slicker and more savvy defensively with better foot movement than any of Derevyanchenko's previous opponents at middleweight, including Golovkin and Jacobs. Relative to Golovkin and Jacobs, Derevyanchenko in my opinion will find it tougher to apply his patented high volume pressure given Charlo's reach advantage and defensive abilities. And - given Charlo's adeptness at countering pressure with big power that's quick and often pinpoint - Derevyanchenko's pressure might create too many holes that Charlo can exploit. 

At 30 years old, Charlo is the younger fighter in the prime of his career while Derevyanchenko - despite only being 15 fights into his professional career - is a bit past his prime at 34 (turning 35 next month). Derevyanchenko also hasn't fought in nearly a year, which I think will be to the detriment of the aging fighter. Even with the time he's had off to rest, Derevyanchenko is a battle-worn fighter from his lengthy, 400+ fight amateur career and the wars he's had in recent years with the likes of Golovkin and Jacobs.  

It would also be remiss to discount the promotional politics behind Saturday night's boxing card. Charlo's manager (and de facto promoter) Al Haymon, along with the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) boxing series, are using this double PPV card as part of their effort to build the Charlo twins into one of the biggest brands in the sport. Jermall Charlo is obviously the "A" side of this matchup; Derevyanchenko is the "B" side and was the "B" side in his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs - it shouldn't come as a surprise that he came out on the short end on the judges' scorecards in both of those close fights in which either could reasonably have been scored in his favor. For the PBC series, where the Charlo twins are among the more marketable commodities in all of boxing, I'd have to think a close fight this Saturday night is just as likely to be scored in favor of the "A" side Charlo as Derevyanchenko's fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs were. 

So, all things considered, I like betting the favored Charlo for the win here. In terms of method of victory - Derevyanchenko has been knocked down early in each of his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs (both times in the first round) but has never come close to being stopped as a pro. Charlo possesses big power that I feel will be effective vs. Derevyanchenko's pressure, but Charlo is by nature a low-volume, cautiously aggressive fighter which - combined with Derevyanchenko's resilient nature and sturdy chin - leads me to believe it's highly likely this fight goes to decision. Therefore, I think a bet on Charlo to win by decision offers the best value for this matchup Either way, definitely looking forward to this event and the stacked card!!! 

Prediction: Charlo to win

Recommended bet: Charlo to win by decision (bet to RISK .5 unit)

Spence vs. Porter: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.

The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.

But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).

This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.

Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.

Prefight Analysis

Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).

Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.

Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.

Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.

I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.

As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.

Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.

If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).

I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!

Prediction: Spence by decision

Recommended bet: Spence wins by any decision (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

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Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: March 16, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  IBF World welterweight title
TV: Fox PPV
Line: Spence: -360, Garcia: +325 (5 Dimes, 3/16/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #10 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked lightweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

While well-known amongst boxing fans, Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia are far from household names in the mainstream sports world. But Spence vs. Garcia is probably one of the more intriguing matchups of the past several years. Spence vs. Garcia is the first matchup featuring two undefeated, Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighters since Andre Ward fought Sergey Kovalev in 2016 and is the first such matchup (between undefeated, top 10 pound-for-found-rated fighters) at welterweight  since Floyd Mayweather Jr. fought Ricky Hatton in 2007.

Errol Spence - the current IBF welterweight champion of the world - is an undefeated former Olympian who is considered by many to be the best fighter in arguably the most talented weight division in the sport. Spence is a skilled, versatile boxer who's used his typical advantages over his opponents in size, speed, power, and athleticism  to not only win, but dominate every fight of his 24-fight professional career. Spence has won 14 of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO.

This Saturday night Spence will face Mikey Garcia, another undefeated fighter who is trying to become only the 6th 5-division champion in the history of the sport (Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Thomas Hearns), a feat which would make his already likely future induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame a certainty.

Like most opponents on Spence's resume, Garcia - a natural lightweight (135 lbs) - will come into Saturday night's fight as the smaller fighter with disadvantages in power, speed, and athleticism. But Garcia is an immensely talented fighter who most would consider to be the more skilled boxer with the higher ring IQ. Garcia is blessed with a unique combination of power, accuracy, timing, and efficient footwork that Spence has never seen before and will have to respect if he wants to win this fight.

This will be the first fight of Garcia's career as an underdog (+325 at the time of this blog) and will likely be by far the toughest fight of his career to date. But if Garcia - who spent the majority of his career at featherweight (126 lbs) and super featherweight (130 lbs) - can beat the man considered by many to be the best (and most avoided) welterweight in the world in his first fight as a welterweight, he'll become an instant boxing legend, a legend in the Mexican-American communities of the United States, and perhaps even a legend back in his parents' home country of Mexico.

If Spence wins the fight (as expected by most), it'll likely set the stage for a title unification super fight vs. one of the other elite welterweight title holders promoted by Premier Boxing Champions - Shawn Porter, Manny Pacquiao, or Keith Thurman - either later this year or early 2019 at the latest.

Spence vs. Garcia will be the first boxing pay-per-view (PPV) ever carried by the Fox network and the second boxing PPV to take place at the 105,000+ capacity AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (home of the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys) - the first being Canelo Alvarez vs. Liam Smith in 2016.

Prefight Analysis

The outcome of Saturday night's fight largely depends on on how well Garcia's skills carry up to welterweight. Most observers agree that Garcia is probably the better pure boxer and all-around more skilled fighter in this matchup. To date Garcia has also probably had the more impressive career, having already won major world titles in 4 weight divisions and already likely secured a future spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame behind his elite punching power in both hands complemented with exceptional timing, punch accuracy, and footwork.

Earlier this winter, Garcia spent 5 weeks of his training camp with world-renowned sports nutritionist Victor Conte to build muscle mass and gain strength - while retaining quickness and speed - for his move up to welterweight. If Garcia is able to carry his punching power up to welterweight without losing reaction time and the ability to move on his feet that he had at lower weights than this fight is much closer to a true 50/50 fight than the 75/25 to 80/20 fight the oddsmakers currently have this matchup graded as. Behind one of the best power jabs in the sport and the ability to counter accurately off his back foot, Garcia is very capable of performing better than then-IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook in his May 2017 fight vs. Spence, who on two of the three official judges' scorecards outpointed Spence over the first five rounds of their fight.

Garcia's patient, yet accurate and concussive punching power could be the perfect antidote to Spence's aggressive, lunge-forward style as Spence has shown susceptibility to clean counters when executing his attack (as seen in his early rounds vs. Brook).

There is a reason why Garcia sought out this fight and is extremely confident headed in to this matchup. Spence is a very good to perhaps great fighter but Garcia may just be a historically great fighter - a win Saturday night in his first fight at welterweight vs. the man many consider the best (and most avoided) fighter in the division will go a very long way towards proving that.

But, at the end of the day, I think the natural weight deficiency will be (way) too much for Garcia to overcome. It's been rare but we have seen instances of boxers moving up multiple weight classes to win a major title vs. an elite fighter in only their first fight at that weight class. But we've never seen a fighter move up two weight classes to beat the guy many consider to be not only the best fighter in the weight class, but also the best power puncher in the weight class with the highest knockout ratio (88%) in the division.

The weight discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that Spence is considered big for the weight class. Spence is currently the IBF welterweight champ but he's a very big, physically-imposing welterweight with a football background to boot. There is little doubt he would be the best fighter at super welterweight if he moved up to 154 pounds and he would likely be a highly successful fighter even at middleweight (160 lbs). As talented as Garcia is - and perhaps he really is the historically great talent many seem to think - one has to wonder what kind of chance a natural lightweight realistically has vs. a fighter with the athleticism and power that Spence has and vs. a fighter is Spence who could conceivably fight at an elite level at as high as middleweight. Garcia has in the past been knocked down by a light-fisted puncher at super featherweight (Roman Martinez) and - although he won the junior welterweight (140 lbs) title decisively last March vs. Sergey Lipinets - he was hit cleanly quite often by the tough Russian and didn't come close to stopping him offensively. In that fight vs. Lipinets, the skill discrepancy between Garcia and the Russian was apparent but Lipinets' size and toughness kept the fight somewhat competitive, particularly in the middle rounds where he had his most success. If Lipinets could stay competitive with Garcia at 140 lbs, I quite frankly see a (much) bigger, stronger, more athletic and skilled Spence being infinitely more competitive to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easy fight for him this Saturday night.

The theory behind this fight between a natural lightweight in Garcia and a pseudo-middleweight in Spence being competitive is based primarily on the thought that Garcia's skill advantage gives him a real shot but Spence's skills are being (way) underrated here. Again, Spence is a fighter who has not only beaten, but dominated every fighter who has stepped inside the ring with him. This included a domination of Brook - who many considered to be one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in boxing at the time and who arguably is on the same level as Garcia in terms of skill - in Brook's home country to win the IBF welterweight title. This also included a quick 5th round destruction (in April 2016) of former WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri, a feather-fisted but slick and very mobile fighter who even Manny Pacquiao was unable to stop through 12 rounds. (That 5th-round stoppage was the first and only stoppage loss of Algieri's career.)

To be fair, Spence's resume isn't too impressive outside of Brook, gritty veteran (and former 2-division champion) Lamont Peterson (who Spence defeated last year by 7th-round stoppage), and maybe Algieri but Garcia's resume is also far from noteworthy. There's irony in Garcia being considered by many (including myself) to be a future likely future hall-of-famer, yet through 39 professional fights, he has yet to face another hall-of-fame caliber fighter himself.

The expected fight dynamics don't work too well in Garcia's favor either. Garcia is typically a slow starter and not the most active puncher in terms of volume. Even Adrien Broner - another notoriously slow starter and low-volume puncher who stayed ultra-conservative throughout his unanimous decision loss to Garcia in 2017 -  was able to win four rounds on two judges scorecards vs. Garcia, including two of the first four rounds. Garcia's tendency to start slow and pick up the pace in the middle rounds may not work well against a bigger, more active and aggressive fighter like Spence who has solid stamina and a proven ability to finish strong in the later rounds (see Spence's 11th round stoppage of Brook despite Brook's successes in the early rounds).  

Garcia has one of the best jabs in boxing but Spence has a solid jab of his own and a 4" reach advantage that will at least to some degree mitigate the effectiveness of Garcia's jab. Spence is also a devastating body puncher - perhaps the best in the sport today - which I'd expect to neutralize Garcia's counter punching as the fight progresses.

Especially given Garcia's soft body physique, I do think Spence's body punching will play the biggest role in what I expect to be a clear and decisive win for him Saturday night. Garcia is a tremendously intelligent and talented fighter but I think Spence's natural advantages in size, pure strength, athleticism, and punching power will be too much for him to overcome - especially in the later rounds.

Given Spence's physical advantages and the fact that he's won 14 out of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO, I think the most likely result of Saturday's fight is Spence by TKO/KO. But given Garcia's technical prowess - which includes solid fundamentals defensively - and ability to move well on his feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts the full 12 rounds in what I still think would be a clear unanimous decision victory for Spence. While Spence to win by stoppage (currently being offered at better than even money odds) and Spence to win in rounds 7-12 (currently offered at better than 2-1 odds) are solid bets with strong value (and are bets I've placed smaller side wagers on), the bet I like the most here for mitigation of risk is Spence to win by KO or unanimous decision, currently being offered at 5Dimes at approximately -175 odds.

Spence vs. Garcia is a true legacy-defining fight and by far the most important fight of both fighters' careers. It will be interesting to see how both fighters - both of whom are typically very calm and composed by nature - perform in the big moment!

Prediction: Spence by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Spence by KO or unanimous decision (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

2) Spence by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to RISK .25 unit)

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Leo Santa Cruz vs. Aber Mares II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1, 19 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (31-2-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz: -570, Mares: +570 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purses: Santa Cruz: $1 million, Mares: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #1 ranked featherweight, Mares: #5 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Thomas Taylor

Why you should watch this fight

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares II is a rematch of a fight that exceeded the hype and was universally considered one of the best fights of 2015. The first fight was arguably a classic - one of the best fights the Premier Boxing Champions series has aired in their three years of existence. A rematch seems almost certain to please and be another fight-of-the-year candidate, especially given the classic style matchup between two elite Mexican brawlers which is expected to take place in front of an energetic, mostly Mexican-American/Mexican crowd in the heart of downtown Los Angeles.

Since beating (then undefeated) Carl Frampton for the WBA featherweight title (which avenged his own loss to Frampton in 2016, the only loss of his career), Santa Cruz has widely been considered the best featherweight in the world. This Saturday, Santa Cruz gives Mares a chance to avenge his loss in their first fight, a highly entertaining fight that ended in a close but clear majority decision victory for Santa Cruz.

After losing to Santa Cruz, Mares changed trainers, hiring the well-known Oxnard, California-based trainer Robert Garcia. Mares has looked impressive in his two fights under Garcia, winning the "regular" version of the WBA featherweight title in the process. Will Mares - who as recently as a few years ago Ring Magazine rated as high as the #5 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound -  make the necessary adjustments under Garcia to avenge his loss in 2015 vs. Santa Cruz? Or will Santa Cruz get the better of Mares again in the rematch and solidify his status as the best featherweight in the world?

The winner of Saturday's fight will have the opportunity for a unification superfight with WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. (who's already indicated he'd like to fight the winner of this matchup) or possibly fight WBO interim featherweight champion Carl Frampton, who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire (which would be particularly intriguing if Santa Cruz beats Mares, as it would set up a much-anticipated rubber match between the two fighters).

Prefight Analysis

Santa Cruz vs. Mares is for sure one of the better bets for 2018 Fight of the Year. This is one of those matchups that you can be almost certain will be a competitive, action-packed fight. But I do think the outcome of the fight may depend largely on Mares' approach to the fight - especially given that he's under a different trainer (Robert Garcia) than he was in his first matchup with Santa Cruz. If Mares stays aggressive, keeps the fight physical and at close range, and uses (admittedly borderline illegal) clinching effectively as he did in the first couple of rounds of his first fight vs. Santa Cruz and as he did for stretches of his last two fights vs. Jesus Cuellar and Andres Gutierrez, he has more than a reasonable chance to pull off the upset  - assuming his stamina holds up and he can sustain his aggressiveness through 12 rounds.

To accompany decent power, Mares - at 32 years old - still has quicker hand speed than Santa Cruz and has the technical skills to exploit Santa Cruz's 3" height advantage and high-guard defensive posture (which should provide the shorter Mares with ample opportunities to land clean body shots if he can stay at close range vs. Santa Cruz).

Both Santa Cruz and Mares are high-volume pressure fighters but Mares is more adept at using his physicality to brawl inside. If Mares can successfully employ a rough-house attack strategy (i.e., turn this into an ugly fight), this is a fight I think he can win.

But - despite how solid Mares has looked in recent fights under Garcia - I think Santa Cruz most likely wins the rematch by decision, perhaps even more convincingly than he won the first fight. As with the first fight I see the key to Saturday's fight being Santa Cruz's more voluminous punch output combined with his superior stamina. Santa Cruz's advantages in accurate work rate and consistent energy were I think the key difference the first fight three years ago; I don't see a 32-year-old, slightly past prime Mares closing the gap in either of these areas vs. a prime Santa Cruz - if anything I expect Mares to have less stamina and have a lower work rate than he did in their first fight when Mares was closer to his prime.

I see Santa Cruz and Mares as roughly on the same level in terms of skill and power. Mares has superior hand speed and is the better fighter inside but I think Santa Cruz's stamina, consistently high work rate, and more accurate punching will overwhelm Mares in the middle to later rounds regardless of any adjustments Mares has made under Robert Garcia and regardless of whether the fight is fought from close range or from distance.

Though I think the fighters are somewhat evenly matched skill-wise, it should be noted that since his first fight with Mares, Santa Cruz has gained experience and seemingly improved in his two wars with Frampton (who is generally considered a better boxer than Mares). In his second fight vs. Frampton last year, Santa Cruz made impressive adjustments - including switching from a more aggressive, pressuring approach to utilizing his reach advantage to outbox Frampton from distance - to avenge his loss in the first fight. (An adjustment somewhat similar to the adjustments he made after the first couple of rounds in his first fight with Mares where he transitioned from trading punches with Mares on the inside to boxing more from distance.)

From his previous experience with Mares, I anticipate Santa Cruz having a better feel for how to counter Mares' aggressive, physical style and think he'll win more convincingly this time around by clear - albeit a competitive and at times thrilling - unanimous decision, if not a late stoppage.

If - at the beginning of 2018 - I was asked to pick a single fight that could be expected to live up to the hype and contend for Fight of the Year it would be this one so looking forward to seeing how the action shapes out!

Prediction: Santa Cruz by decision

Recommended bet: 1) Santa Cruz by any decision (risk 1 unit)

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Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (39-0, 38 KOs) vs. Luis Ortiz (28-0, 24 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 3, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Wilder: -325, Ortiz: +295 (5 Dimes, 3/3/18)
Purses: Wilder: $2.1 million, Ortiz: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Ortiz: #5 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Ortiz: Southpaw
Referee: David Fields

Why you should watch this fight

A once long-dormant heavyweight division has been heating up over the past couple of years with the emergence of undefeated stars like Anthony Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Luis Ortiz, and Australian Jason Parker to once again become one of the most exciting divisions in the sport. (Undefeated Tyson Fury, who ended Wladimir Klitschko's nearly decade-long reign as heavyweight champion in 2015 is also reportedly making a return to the ring this year after a more than two-year hiatus.)

All four major heavyweight titles are currently held by Joshua (WBA, IBF), Wilder (WBC), and Parker (WBO); this Saturday's fight between Wilder and Ortiz in Brooklyn and the fight later this month (March 31st) between Joshua and Parker in the United Kingdom essentially serve as semifinal matchups for a superfight later this year or early next year that hopefully crowns the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in nearly 18 years (Lennox Lewis in 2000).

Wilder is one of the most feared and avoided boxers in the sport - the WBC heavyweight champion who boasts a perfect record 39-0, with 38 of those wins (97.4%) coming by TKO/KO. Half (19) of those 38 knockouts have come in the first round, including his most recent fight last November - a rematch vs. Bermane Stiverne. Wilder has excellent power in both hands (particularly his right) and - in knocking out Stiverne last November - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his professional career. (In their first fight back in January 2015, Stiverne went the full 12 round distance with Wilder, losing a unanimous decision.)

Wilder, who has been heavyweight champion for three years (since beating Stiverne to earn the title), will be making his seventh title defense vs. undefeated Cuban heavyweight Luis Ortiz. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also a feared, heavily-avoided fighter with excellent power - only two of his scored 28 professional fights have gone the distance, with the other 26 ending in victory by early TKO/KO/DQ. (Ortiz also had two other fights that ended as an early stoppage victory but were later ruled no contests and struck from his win-loss record.)

Ortiz is by far the toughest opponent Wilder has faced in his career and is considered by most observers to have better overall skills than Wilder. At 38 years old, Ortiz is looking to win his first major world title belt. Ortiz is also attempting to become the first Cuban fighter - and first Latino born outside the United States - in boxing history to win a heavyweight title.

Again, Wilder vs. Ortiz will be one of the more significant fights to take place this year - the winner will be in line for a fight vs. the winner of Joshua vs. Parker (a fight that takes place in a few weeks) to determine the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world (assuming the politics of boxing don't get in the way and the fight can actually be made).

Prefight Analysis

All things considered, Wilder is the guy who I feel will probably win this fight. Wilder has exceptional power in both hands (to the point of - as I've mentioned above - having knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career), is in his prime, and is facing a past-prime fighter in a 38-year old Ortiz who can't match Wilder's athleticism or speed. Ortiz can box on the move but, given his relative deficit in athleticism and speed compared to Wilder, I find it unlikely he'll be able to evade Wilder's game-changing punching power for a full 12 rounds.

I expect Wilder's above-average jab and rangy boxing style - augmented by an 83" reach and 7' wingspan - to do a decent enough job of keeping Ortiz's offensive attack at bay. (More precisely, I expect Wilder's ability to box from distance, his quicker foot movement, as well as Ortiz's respect of Wilder's knockout power, to largely nullify Ortiz's clear advantage in boxing skill.) Wilder is a supremely confident, determined fighter who's made it known that he wants to go down as one of the all-time greats. Perhaps it's more talk and bravado than "all-time great"-caliber substance but I truly believe Wilder flat out just wants to win this fight more than Ortiz and that that desire will go a long way towards carrying him to victory here. Wilder is one of my favorite boxers - I'm rooting for him to win this fight and would grade him at approximately 55-60% to get the victory Saturday night.

But with all that said, it's tough to overlook the value of Ortiz as a 3-1 underdog. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also undefeated with impressive power (as evidenced by his career 80% TKO/KO ratio). And like Wilder, Ortiz has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career. But Ortiz is almost certainly the more skilled, versatile fighter in this matchup. Ortiz is a high-level, Cuban-schooled technical boxer with extensive amateur experience (an impressive 343-19 record in the amateurs) facing a still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder who's arguably not shown much in the way skill other than a solid, rangy (though often basic and predictable) jab to complement his explosive power and athleticism. Though not his fault (as he's consistently called out top-level competition to fight him and has even been more than willing to travel overseas in hostile territory for big fights), Wilder has yet as a pro to face an elite heavyweight -  Ortiz will be by far the best he'll have faced thus far in his career.

Ortiz likely has the advantage in a pure boxing match, and also in fighting from close distance as he's proven in numerous fights to be a skilled inside fighter - whereas Wilder has actually struggled on the inside vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's recent fights vs. Gerald Washington, Artur Spilka, and Eric Molina). If Ortiz can use his superior boxing skill to evade Wilder's power (in particular limit the effectiveness of Wilder's right hand) he has an excellent chance of winning the fight to the point where I wouldn't be at all surprised if he stops Wilder in the mid to late rounds. Ortiz is the more accurate, savvy power puncher facing a fighter in Wilder who at times is prone to swinging wildly (thus leaving himself out of position and open to clean counterpunching) and whose chin has never been tested by an elite puncher.

There are reasons why even Wilder's promoter, Lou DiBella, was reluctant to take what is widely considered a high-risk, relatively low-reward fight for Wilder. Given his frequent mentions of UK heavyweight superstar Anthony Joshua in the prefight build-up to this fight, I suspect Wilder is at least somewhat overlooking this fight and perhaps underestimating Ortiz - who I'll point out again is a heavy-handed power puncher who has never come close to losing a fight in his professional career and is the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup.

I do think in this fight that Wilder's impressive power from distance - and superior athleticism and speed - is likely to overwhelm Ortiz's superior skill en route to a 39th victory by stoppage in his 40th fight. But given Ortiz's clear advantage in skill and experience - as well as the fight-changing punching power he himself brings to the table - I can't help but think Ortiz to win at (approximately) +300 odds is the best bet on this fight. If you're giving me +300 odds (even currently as high as +325 at some books) on the better skilled, more experienced and versatile fighter who's never come close to losing a fight (and who's never even been knocked down in his career), I'll take those odds almost every time. Especially when he's up against a guy who - despite an impressive record - has no experience vs. top-level competition and relies more on his athleticism and power than his still somewhat raw boxing abilities. But I will hedge the primary bet on Ortiz to win with what I feel is the most likely outcome of the fight - Wilder by TKO/KO (which can currently be found as low as -150 at Bovada).

I'll be at this fight Saturday night so regardless of the outcome I'm expecting some intense, explosive between these two heavy-handed heavyweights!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 1) Ortiz to win (risk .5 unit) 

2) Wilder by TKO/KO (to win .5 unit)

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Danny Garcia vs. Brandon Rios: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (33-1, 19 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (34-3-1, 25 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -1750, Rios +1350 (5 Dimes, 2/15/18)
Purse: Garcia: $1.25 million, Rios: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Primarily to confirm whether Danny Garcia - who lost for the first time in his professional career in a close, competitive split-decision loss to Keith Thurman last March and is coming off the longest layoff of his career after that loss - should still be considered one of the elite welterweights in what may now be the most stacked division in boxing.

Indeed, the welterweight division is deep in talent with names like Thurman, Errol Spence, Manny Pacquiao, Shawn Porter, and now Terence Crawford - who makes his welterweight debut in April vs. undefeated champion Jeff Horn for the WBO title after becoming the undisputed junior welterweight champion this past August. (Crawford is currently rated the Ring Magazine #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport behind only Gennady Golovkin and was the first undisputed world champion in any weight class in over a decade.) This fight should serve as a gauge to determine whether Garcia - a no-frills but talented and skilled boxer who probably has the most impressive fight resume out of any of the top welterweights - still belongs among the elite in the division.

The gauge for Garcia on Saturday night will be Brandon Rios, a former WBA world champion at lightweight who has arguably been one of the most exciting action fighters of this generation. Despite being stopped in his last loss back in November of 2015 vs. Tim Bradley (Rios's only stoppage loss and the only time he's been knocked down in his career), Rios is known for his Mexican-style grit and having an excellent chin. Rios is a come-forward pressure fighter with good power who is a fan favorite and a tough out for anyone, but this fight vs. Garcia will be just his 2nd fight after a 1.5-year break (temporary retirement) from the ring after his loss to Bradley. But Rios appears to be rejuvenated and in the best shape of his boxing career after reuniting with original trainer and close friend Robert Garcia, following a one-fight stint with Los Angeles-based trainer Ricky Funez.

Garcia vs. Rios is a WBC title eliminator, meaning that the winner of this fight becomes the second mandatory challenger for Thurman's WBC belt. (Porter, who beat Andre Berto in a WBC title eliminator last April, is currently Thurman's first mandatory opponent.) If Rios wins this fight, it would be an impressive comeback from a brief retirement, would be by far the best win of Rios's career, and would put him on track again for the high six-figure/low seven-figure paydays he enjoyed in the prime of his career vs. fighters like Manny Pacquiao and Mike Alvarado.

If Garcia wins (and wins impressively), it would further solidify his status as one of the best fighters at 147 lbs and as still a serious threat to any of the top guys in the division.

Prefight Analysis

As an over 20-1 favorite at some sportsbooks, Garcia is (by far) the widest favorite I've done a prediction for so it should be no surprise I'm picking him to win big here. A prime Rios goes 12 rounds with Garcia every time and would've even been competitive in spots with his relentless pressure and solid chin. But a past-prime, battle-worn Rios who's been relatively inactive the past couple of years and never really looked impressive at welterweight will have a difficult time hanging in there vs. a prime, fresh Garcia who is legitimately one of the top four or five boxers in a deep welterweight division and is arguably one of the top 20 boxers in the world pound-for-pound.

Rios is a name well-known to all hardcore boxing fans and is notorious for being a tough-out action fighter but this fight is a mismatch to the point you could question why it was even approved as a WBC belt title eliminator. Garcia is considerably more skilled, faster, and has greater (as well as more accurate) punching power than the relatively predictable and limited Rios, who even in his prime never beat a fighter of Garcia's caliber. (Garcia, on the other hand, has beaten a long list of fighters more talented and skilled than Rios - see Amir Khan, Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Paulie Malignaggi, as well as a few others.)

Rios knows only one way to fight (which for the most part has served him well throughout his boxing career) - a style predicated on high-volume pressure, trading punches from close distance, and a will to win that seems nearly always greater than his opponent's. But Garcia has a lot to prove coming off the first loss of his career and has proven to have one of the better chins in boxing (having never been knocked down in his career despite having faced some of the more feared punchers in the sport like Matthysse and Thurman). It's hard to believe Rios - whose power has never been eye-catching at welterweight like it was at lower weights - poses much of a knockout threat to Garcia with a punching attack that is high in volume but is generally predictable with not much speed or creativity behind the punches. Garcia, on the other hand, is a deceptively slick, savvy puncher who will land crushing power punches (in particular his left hook, which is one of the best left hooks in the sport) vs. Rios, who has notoriously poor defensive skills (including little to no head movement, relatively slow reflexes,  and a willingness to take clean power punches in order to counter with his own attack).

Garcia wants to make a statement here that he is still one of the top fighters in the world at 147 lbs; Rios appears to have been the guy handpicked by Garcia's manager, Al Haymon, as the opponent Garcia would best be able to make that statement against with little to no risk of a second consecutive loss on his boxing record.

Despite the criticisms and negative assessment in this analysis, Rios is actually one of my favorite fighters; I respect his chin and tremendous toughness enough to believe he'll probably last the majority of the 12 rounds with Garcia. But at the end of the day, this is arguably a low A-level fighter in Garcia vs. a C-level fighter in Rios (with D-level defense) who's best days are behind him. I see Garcia breaking Rios down in the mid to late rounds to win this fight by stoppage - possibly even a vicious stoppage that forces Rios back into retirement. There's certainly a chance Rios has enough of a chin to get through the full 12 rounds - especially given that Garcia can be very patient at times and may be looking more for spots to counter rather than seek and destroy. But I think the (wide) mismatch in skill, Garcia's (oft-underappreciated) power, and Rios's declining abilities and propensity for getting hit cleanly makes a bet on Garcia to win inside the distance (which can currently be found at -130) the best bet for this fight.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Garcia by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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Thurman vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (27-0, 22 KOs) vs. Danny Garcia (33-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 4, 2017
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: CBS
Line: Thurman -220, Garcia +200 (5 Dimes, 3/4/17)
Purse: Thurman: $2 million, Garcia: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #2 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Garcia: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

This is a key matchup in what right now is probably the most stacked weight class division in boxing. Thurman vs. Garcia will be just the 3rd fight in boxing history to match two undefeated welterweights in a unification title fight. (The previous matchup being the 1999 superfight vs. undefeated welterweight champions Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad.)

Thurman vs. Garcia will also be just the 2nd fight in nearly 40 years to air on CBS in primetime - the 1st fight being Thurman's victory last June vs. Shawn Porter in a classic that was widely considered a fight of the year candidate for 2016.

Prior to these two fights, the last fight to air on CBS in primetime was Leon Spinks'  split-decision upset victory vs. Muhammad Ali, the 1978 Ring Magazine Fight of the Year that gave Ali only the 3rd loss of his career and 1st loss since losing to Ken Norton nearly five years prior.

The winner of this fight will stand alongside Manny Pacquiao as arguably the top welterweight in boxing and - given Floyd Mayweather's recent retirement as well as Pacquiao's gradual but inevitable transition from boxer to full-time Philippine politician - is positioned to become one of the prominent faces of the division for years to come.

Along with the Pacquiao vs. Amir Khan and Kell Brook vs. Errol Spence fights tentatively scheduled for later this spring, Thurman vs. Garcia will go a long way towards clarifying who the top fighter is in what is probably the most talent-laden division in the sport.

Why Keith Thurman will win

Thurman is an undefeated fighter who has been the WBA welterweight champion since 2013. He's an aggressive boxer-puncher with good foot movement and one punch KO power in both hands. (Thurman has won 22 of his 27 pro fights by TKO/KO for an impressive KO% of 79%) At 28 years old, Thurman is in his prime and is highly confident coming off what was by far the best win of his career in last year's unanimous decision victory over top welterweight Shawn Porter.

 Aside from his natural power and athleticism, Thurman is a very thoughtful, highly intelligent boxer
who has noticeable advantages in size, speed, and mobility over Garcia. Thurman had a lot of success using foot movement to stay out of range vs. the herky-jerky ambush style of Porter; one would expect he will have even more success evading the power of the relatively flat-footed, more predictable Garcia.

Thurman has much more experience at welterweight than Garcia - he has fought essentially his entire career at 147 lbs or higher, while this will only be Garica's 4th fight at welterweight. Thurman at this point is fairly battle-tested at 147 with experience vs. some good power punchers in the division, while Garcia's toughest tests at 147 have been vs. Robert Guerrero and Paulie Malignaggi - both of whom are well past their prime. Although Garcia has two TKO victories in his three fights at welterweight, it's still unclear how well his proven power at 140 lbs will carry up vs. the top welterweights at 147; Thurman appears to be the naturally stronger fighter with the superior punching power in this matchup.

Like Thurman, Garcia is also undefeated but two of his recent victories (vs. Lamont Peterson and Mauricio Herrera - neither of whom are as highly regarded as Thurman) have been controversial, majority decision victories that many felt he lost. Garcia is a skilled, well-rounded fighter but has not proven to be an elite technician and is prone to being outboxed in large stretches of fights - including the later rounds of his fights vs. Peterson and Herrera, the early rounds of his 1st fight vs. a past prime Erik Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and even his split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane back in 2010 (a fight some felt Theophane won).

As proven in some of the fights noted above, boxers with solid jabs and good movement can frustrate Garcia's typically slow and flat-footed counterpunching style. If Thurman can establish his jab and use movement to evade Garcia's dangerous counterpunching ability, it will be extremely difficult for Garcia to win a 12 round decision given Thurman's seemingly superior size, speed, punching power, and boxing IQ - not to mention his advantage in experience at 147 lbs.

As a final point, it's worth noting that many seem to be overlooking the fact that Thurman's trainer is two-time Boxing Writers Association of America (BWAA) trainer of the year Dan Birmingham - a world class trainer who has trained the likes of former undisputed light middleweight champion Winky Wright and former Olympian and super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy. Birmingham and Thurman have known since early October that Garcia would be their next fight and have had a few months to game plan and prepare for the matchup.

Why Danny Garcia will win

Like Thurman, Garcia is also an undefeated fighter in his prime and has been a world champion in two different weight classes, unifying titles at junior welterweight (140 lbs) before moving up to win the vacant WBC welterweight championship vs. Robert Guerrero last year.

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated, two-division world champion and one of the best boxers in the world pound for pound. Garcia has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top world-class opponents such as Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, and Lucas Matthysse. Garcia was a +500 underdog in his 2012 title unification bout vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory and was as high as a +250 underdog vs. feared power puncher Matthysse, who he scored a knockdown against en route to a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory in the co-main event of the Mayweather/Canelo card in 2013. Garcia actually enters Saturday's fight as a smaller underdog (+200) than he was vs. either Khan or Matthysse.

Despite only having 19 KOs in 33 fights (57.6 KO%), Garcia's punching power is dangerous and very underrated. Garcia has knocked down 8 of his last 11 opponents over the past 5 years, knocking them down  a total of 11 times in that span. Garcia's knockdowns often come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch and is considered by many to be one of the best left hooks - if not the best left hook - in the sport.

Garcia is a very effective, savvy counter puncher with pretty good hand speed and very good timing on his punches; so if he can land the right counters vs. Thurman's at-times reckless attack (in particular to the body where Thurman was badly hurt and nearly took a knee in his July 2015 fight vs. Luis Collazo) then Thurman could be in for a much tougher night than expected. Thurman was solid defensively in his last fight vs. Porter but in the past has occasionally shown a lack of discipline defensively, dropping his hands in inopportune spots which has left him exposed to clean counter punching (most notably vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass).

Garcia has a reputation for having one of the best chins in boxing (having never been knocked down or knocked out in his professional career), so at times may be able to risk trading shots with Thurman when he's in range - a scenario where you'd likely have to favor Garcia's chin over Thurman's despite Thurman's probable advantage in punching power.  

This fight is taking place in New York City, where the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Garcia. Garcia is of Puerto Rican descent (both of his parents are from Puerto Rico) and New York City is well-known for its large Puerto Rican population, with nearly a quarter of Puerto Ricans (over 1.2 million) in the United States living in the New York City metropolitan area. Garcia himself is originally from Philadelphia, which is less than a two hour drive from New York City; he is expected to have a large contingent of hometown supporters in the crowd Saturday night for the biggest fight of his career to date.

Garcia is a seemingly unflappable fighter who has risen to the occasion every time he's entered the ring as an underdog, not only winning but winning decisively - most recently vs. Matthysse on a huge stage in Las Vegas in the co-main event of what at the time became the highest grossing pay-per-view fight in boxing history (Mayweather vs. Canelo) - so you can never count him out.

Prefight Analysis

I like Keith Thurman to win this fight - probably by clear decision but possibly even by late stoppage. Thurman in my opinion has too many advantages in this fight for Garcia to overcome - size, foot speed, experience at welterweight, punching power, and boxing IQ. Considering the total package of skills Thurman brings to the fight and Garcia's relative inexperience at welterweight, this might be by far the toughest opponent Garcia has faced in his career.  

Garcia is a very solid fighter who - at least on paper - has some legitimately impressive wins as an underdog. But in taking a closer look at some of his fights vs. top-level opponents how impressive were those really? Garcia was getting decisively outboxed by Amir Khan but was able to get an early round TKO/KO victory against a fighter many consider to have the weakest chin of any top-level boxer in the modern era of boxing. Earlier in his career, Khan suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. 9-1 underdog Breidis Prescott, who went on to lose 4 of his next 7 fights after upsetting Khan.


Lucas Matthysse was one of the most feared power punchers in the sport at the time Garcia beat him, but has since proven to be somewhat overrated. After fighing Garcia, Matthysse was in a (surprisingly) highly competitive, fight of the year candidate vs. a B-level journeyman in John Molina Jr. who has lost 3 of his last 5 fights since facing Matthysse. And Matthysse lost by KO in his most recent fight vs. Viktor Postol, a top-level fighter but not a fighter known for his punching power. (Postol has only won 12 of this 29 career fights - 41% - by TKO/KO). Note that Matthysse has also never won a full world title belt and, with the exception of a 3rd round TKO/KO victory vs. Lamont Peterson, has lost to every top-level fighter he has faced - most notably Devon Alexander and rvrn a past prime Zab Judah.  

After fighting Matthysse, Garcia fought 9-1 underdog Mauricio Herrera in his family's homeland of Puerto Rico. Most who watched the fight felt Herrera beat Garcia, including the majority of the Puerto Rican crowd who largely booed the majority decision score for Garcia.

The following year, Lamont Peterson outboxed and dominated Garcia in the 2nd half of their fight in a controversial majority-decision loss, but probably came in to the fight with the wrong game plan by waiting to long to become the aggressor.

All other notable opposition Garcia has fought in recent years - Robert Guerrero, Paulie Malignaggi, and Erik Morales - were well past their prime (aged 32, 34, and 35 respectively) and years removed from being world title belt holders at the time they fought Garcia.

Garcia is a flat-footed, relatively low-volume fighter; I think Thurman is smart and skilled enough to exploit this by boxing Garcia from distance and using enough reach as to where Garcia's counter punching will be largely ineffective. Garcia's chances lie - as they did in his upset victory vs. Khan - primarily in his ability to time Thurman and land big punches but I don't see Thurman allowing Garcia to throw enough counters within range to pose a serious threat; I expect Thurman to mostly either stay out of Garcia's punching range or stay close enough inside to use his size advantage to smother Garcia's punches.

Thurman has the quicker hands, superior jab, and better foot movement so should be able to control the pace of the fight while Garcia waits for opportunities to counter. If Thurman controls the pace as I expect, I don't see any outcome other than a 9-3/8-4 type decision for Thurman (or even a late stoppage if Garcia is unable to handle Thurman's combination of movement and power). I strongly favor Thurman - and his array of advantages over Garcia - in this matchup.

In terms of betting, taking Thurman to win at any odds -230 or better suffices; but given Garcia's excellent chin I think one should strongly consider placing 25-50% of the wager on this fight on Thurman by 12 round decision (currently at +130). Other than a lucky punch, I don't see Garcia - as skilled and underrated as I think he is - having the movement or punch output over 12 rounds to outbox a guy with the physical tools, savvy, and skill of Thurman,- who I think was in much tougher in his previous fight vs. Shawn Porter (and passed that test with flying colors).

Prediction: Thurman to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Thurman to win (.75 unit)
2) Thurman by 12 round decision (.25 unit)

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