Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO

Pacquiao vs. Bradley II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Timothy Bradley (31-0-0-1, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 12, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -240, Bradley +220 (5 Dimes, 4/12/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $20 million, Bradley: $6 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao #7 ranked pound-for-pound (#3 ranked welterweight), Bradley #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight).
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Bradley: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #7 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. 
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December, 2012 fights vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Quick fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters like Bradley to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was an effective punch for him in the previous fight vs. Bradley. 
• By most accounts, Pacquiao won his first fight with Bradley convincingly. (Many gave Pacquiao as many as 10 or 11 rounds of the fight.) Pacquiao outlanded Bradley by over 100 punches in the previous fight (outlanding Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds) and landed at a much higher percentage even before seemingly easing up in the later rounds. Pacquiao has stated that he intends to be more aggressive vs. Bradley than in his previous fights (which he can afford to do because Bradley has limited power); if Pacquiao can replicate or surpass the success he had landing punches vs. Bradley with his increased aggression he will likely win this rematch convincingly.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? Vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won the first fight vs. Bradley convincingly. In his next fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed both Bradley and Marquez despite taking losses in both fights.
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.
• Crowd at the MGM Grand will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. This and the controversy from the previous fight vs. Bradley could influence the judges' scoring in favor of Pacquiao.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last three fights (including a disputed decision vs. the man he will be fighting tonight) and hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley but that fight was almost two years ago (June, 2012). Since then, Pacquiao has slipped while Bradley has improved and gained valuable experience in earning decisions vs. Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in the prime of his career and coming off of arguably the best performance of his career in his split decision vs. Marquez.
• While most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley, many also feel Bradley made adjustments and improved over the second half of the fight. Bradley largely knows what to expect out of Pacquiao now; will Bradley's adjustments carry over in the fight tonight and allow him to earn a clearer decision?
• Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed but Bradley has comparable hand speed and is arguably more mobile on his feet than Manny. 
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. There were spots in the first fight where Bradley used his jab effectively to back Pacquiao up in have him in a position where he couldn't fight as effectively. If Bradley is more effective with his jab and can get Pacquiao fighting off his back foot again, the fight will be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive wizard. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. 
• Pacquiao significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines and has a baby boy due at the end of the month. Is his heart still really in boxing? 

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has always found a way to win. Displayed tremendous heart and determination in pulling out recent victories vs. Manny Pacquiao, Ruslan Provodnikov, and Juan Manuel Marquez. Currently ranked the #3 fighter pound-for-pound in the sport, but is still hungry and feels he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao.  
• Although highly controversial, Bradley already beat Pacquiao in June 2012. Since then, Bradley has improved as a fighter, gaining experience with wins vs. heavy puncher Provodnikov and HOF counter puncher Marquez, while Pacquiao has arguably slipped in recent years. Pacquiao is 35 and a few years past his prime, while Bradley is currently in his prime and highly confident after his three recent high-profile victories.
• Bradley won his last fight vs. Pacquiao despite injuring both of his feet early in the fight (fracturing his left foot in the 2nd round and twisting his right ankle in the 4th per Bradley). One would expect an injury-free Bradley to look more impressive in the rematch.
• Technically savvy boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's tendencies during fights. Made adjustments and improved over the 2nd half of the first Pacquiao fight. Bradley is familiar with Pacquiao's tendencies after the first fight so one can expect there will be at least some improvements in the rematch vs. Pacquiao, who is not as adept at making adjustments to his opponents. 
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Pacquiao often relies on his hand and foot speed advantages to win fights but at this point in their careers, Bradley arguably has better foot speed and, while he doesn't have the power, has hand speed comparable to Pacquiao's.
• High volume puncher. In their first fight Bradley threw more punches than Pacquiao, who is known for being an aggressive, high-volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his recent fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his March 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career. 
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 7 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of his last fight.
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Most feel Bradley lost his first fight vs. Pacquiao by a wide margin. If the rematch resembles the first fight (in which Bradley did not hurt Pacquiao and landed significantly less punches), Pacquiao will likely win an easy decision.
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which should allow Pacquiao to take more chances and be more aggressive in the fight. Bradley has stated publicly that he will take chances and go for the KO vs. Pacquiao but fighting a more aggressive style in this fight may increase the likelihood he gets hurt or knocked out. 
• Bradley is an elusive, defensively gifted fighter but Pacquiao has clear hand speed and power advantages that Bradley won't be able to evade for the full 12 rounds, especially since Pacquiao has the foot speed to catch up to Bradley.
• The MGM Grand crowd will be pro-Pacquiao, and there is a sentiment among many in boxing that Pacquiao got robbed in the first fight, so judges may be more inclined to score close rounds in Pacquiao's favor.

Summary

Tough fight to predict. In my opinion, this is a close 55/45 fight that could go either way, but I'd slightly favor Manny Pacquiao. On the one hand Pacquiao, despite losing the last fight vs. Bradley, did statistically dominate the first fight. Pacquiao outlanded Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds, landed almost 100 more punches, landed the cleaner, more powerful punches, and landed at a much higher percentage than Bradley did. Most felt Manny won the first fight convincingly. Manny will make it a point to be more aggressive in this rematch and, despite some slippage at 35 years old, still has the clear hand speed and power advantage to dominate Bradley over 12 rounds. Bradley is an elusive tactician with great counter punching abilities but does not have the power (that Marquez had in his fights with Pacquiao) to make Manny think twice about coming forward and staying aggressive. Pacquiao is determined to redeem himself from the controversial split decision loss and set-up a possible future opportunity to avenge his loss vs. Marquez.

On the other hand, it's been almost two years since Pacquiao/Bradley I. Since then Pacquiao has suffered a KO loss and had what many felt was an unimpressive victory vs. Brandon Rios, while Bradley won a slugfest with Ruslan Provodnikov (a fight which was named the 2013 Fight of the Year by nearly every boxing outlet) and is coming off arguably the best fight of his career in outboxing Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in his prime, confident, and fighting as well as he's ever fought in his career while Pacquiao is aging and is not quite the fighter he was a few years ago. Bradley claims he injured both feet early in the last fight so one would expect he should look more impressive in the rematch. Bradley also come on late in the last fight and has a better idea of what to expect in this fight, so one would also expect he'll have adjustments to neutralize Pacquiao's speed and power advantages. As determined as Pacquiao will be to avenge his loss, Bradley will likely be even more determined to redeem and prove himself as most felt he lost the fight and robbed Pacquiao of a clear decision.

There are solid reasons why either fighter could win but I think the key to this fight, like the last fight, is that Pacquiao at the end of the day still has the clear hand speed and power advantage, strengths Bradley won't be able to mitigate for the full 12 rounds with foot speed (because Manny is still fast enough to catch him) or counter punching (because Bradley doesn't have the power to keep Manny honest). Bradley is by nature a high volume fighter and will for some stretches of the fight be willing to stand in and exchange with Pacquiao. Bradley clearly has a chip on his shoulder and still feels he has something to prove so I see him fighting in this fight (at least in stretches) trying to exchange punches like he did vs. Provodnikov rather than jabbing and using movement like he did vs. Marquez. Fighting like he fought vs. Provodnikov will likely be to Bradley's detriment as it will allow Pacquiao to better exploit his speed and power advantages.  

With this said, Pacquiao is not quite as strong or as fast as he was a couple of years ago. If Bradley can make effective use of the jab (which he did brilliantly vs. Marquez and had some success with vs. Pacquiao) to keep Pacquiao on his back foot and use his feet to either stay out of range (as he did in the Marquez fight) or crowd Pacquiao on the inside (where Pacquiao's power is not as effective), Bradley may be able to outwork Pacquiao and pull off the decision. The course of this fight depends largely on 1) how Bradley approaches this fight and how he plans to mitigate Pacquiao's aggressiveness and 2) how much power and speed Pacquiao truly has left in the tank.

Not knowing for sure how Bradley will approach this fight (i.e., whether he chooses to exchange or chooses to jab and stay mobile), I think Pacquiao's clear speed and power advantages get him the victory in this matchup a slight majority of the time (between say 55-60% of the time). I believe Pacquiao will probably win this fight. However, I do believe with his technical savvy and high volume workrate that Bradley is enough of a live underdog to make a +220 wager on Bradley the best bet to make.

Prediction: Pacquiao by decision

Best Bet: Bradley to win (+220)

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.

Bradley vs. Marquez: postfight analysis

Outcome: Bradley defeats Marquez by split decision to retain WBO welterweight title
Judge Scorecards: Robert Hoyle 115-113 | Patricia Morse Jarman 116-112 | Glenn Farman 113-115

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 116-112 (Bradley)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

(click here to view full postfight press conference)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Close, feel-out round. Bradley threw more punches (which would be the norm throughout the fight) and established his jab early but Marquez landed a few more punches than Bradley and landed the cleaner, harder punches. Marquez landed a few left hooks and uppercuts to edge out a very close round. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 10-9 Marquez

Round 2: Clear round for Bradley. Bradley jabbed very effectively and used lateral movement well to elude Marquez's counter-punching skills. Bradley landed a hard right hand, solid body shot to the liver area and got the best of Marquez in a nice exchange of punches towards the end of the round. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: Very close round. Marquez showed good timing and landed the harder, more accurate shots but Bradley continued to jab effectively, throwing and landing more punches in the round. Bradley moved well and continued to control the pace. Close, but key to round was Bradley outworked Marquez 38-25 in punches thrown and landed 10 punches to Marquez's 6. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 29-28 Bradley

Round 4: Another close round. Bradley is still controlling the pace of the fight with his left jab and movement and is continuing to outwork Marquez in terms of punches thrown and landed. However, Marquez landed the more solid, accurate punches in the round and got the better of Bradley in a nice exchange near the end of the round. Referee Robert Byrd briefly stopped the fight in the first half of the round and instructed Marquez's corner to wipe the excess vaseline off his body. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 38-38 Even

Round 5: Yet another competitive round that follows the pattern of most of the previous rounds. Bradley is having success with the left jab and is clearly controlling the pace of the fight. Again Bradley is outworking Marquez, throwing and landing more punches (and landing at a higher percentage than Marquez). When Marquez is landing, his punches tend to be more accurate and powerful than the shots Bradley landed but Bradley has not been affected by Marquez's power and outworked Marquez enough to clearly win the round (though the round was somewhat close). Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 48-47 Bradley

Round 6: More of the same. Bradley is continuing to outwork Marquez and is still controlling the fight with his left jab and foot movement. Marquez is still landing a few solid, accurate shots but Bradley is countering Marquez's punches with right hands and left hooks of his own. Bradley is consistently beating Marquez to the punch with his hand speed, countering well when Marquez throws punches. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 58-56 Bradley

Round 7: Another round very similar to previous rounds. Marquez is landing solid punches in spots but Bradley is consistently outworking Marquez and controlling the pace of the fight with his jabs, lateral movement, and hands speed. In this round, Bradley throws and lands more jabs than in any of the previous rounds. Bradley is the more active fighter in this round (as he's seemingly been in every round of the fight thus far) and his hand and foot speed advantage is becoming more apparent. Bradley landed 19 punches to Marquez's 13 in Round 7. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 68-65 Bradley

Round 8: Marquez lands a few solid right hands, including a hard body shot towards the end of the round but again Bradley is controlling the pace of the fight, outworking Marquez with his jabs and speed advantage. Bradley lands a few multiple punch combinations to take the round. Neither fighter's punches is hurting the other but Bradley's work rate and ability to elude Marquez's counter punches are the difference in this round and the fight overall. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 78-74 Bradley

Round 9:  Clear round for Marquez. Marquez started the round aggressive and landed the more accurate and powerful punches. Marquez outlands Bradley for the first time in the fight since Round 1 (22 punches landed for Marquez; 16 in favor of Bradley). Marquez is effective with his straight right hand and lands a couple of nice combinations to win the round going away. This is Marquez's best round in the fight. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 87-84 Bradley

Round 10:  Most exciting round of the fight thus far. Numerous flurries of punches in this round. Bradley scored a few nice combinations in the round but Marquez countered with his own, which got the crowd (a pro-Marquez crowd which up to this round had been frustrated with the lack of action from both fighters) behind Marquez again. Marquez landed a few solid shots in this round, including a right uppercut early and a clean body shot towards the end of the round. However, Bradley appeared to control the round overall with (similar to previous rounds) his work rate, jab, and movement in the ring. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 97-93 Bradley

Round 11: Marquez is noticeably more active in this round than he's been in most previous rounds, stalking Bradley and appearing to throw and land more meaningful punches overall. Bradley is less active (perhaps a bit fatigued) and mostly resorts to landing single shots before retreating. Marquez lands a few nice body shots in the round. Neither fighter lands any huge punches but Marquez wins the round primarily due to lack of activity from Bradley, who was mostly on the defensive. (It's likely Bradley knows he's ahead and is playing it safe.) Marquez had a 14-4 advantage in power shots landed in Round 11. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 106-103 Marquez

Round 12:  Close round. Marquez continues to stay aggressive in this round, stalking Bradley who is using good movement to avoid Marquez's aggression. As in previous rounds, Bradley is having success using his jab and movement to elude Marquez's advances. Bradley is also countering Marquez's aggression effectively with some solid shots. This was an even round, perhaps with Marquez slightly ahead until the final heavy exchange of punches towards the end of the round which Bradley got the best of, including a left hook that almost sends Marquez to the canvas. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 116-112 Bradley

Postfight Summary

This fight basically went as I predicted in my prefight analysis. Bradley clearly learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight, using his speed advantage, defensive abilities, and jab to stay control the pace of the fight and outbox Marquez. Although Marquez tended to land the more crisp and accurate punches when he connected (Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley according to CompuBox stats), his overall activity was low compared to Bradley, who threw and landed more punches than Marquez. In terms of scoring, the difference in the fight for me was the middle four rounds (Rounds 5-8), all of which I gave to Bradley. 

Bradley has outstanding lateral movement and a low center of gravity elusiveness which made it difficult for Marquez to land any meaningful punches the whole fight. Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley in the fight, but Bradley was never in any serious danger during the fight. Marquez is one of the great counter punchers of this era but, as I expected, Bradley's lateral movement, speed advantage, and jab effectively neutralized Marquez's counter punching skills. If Bradley had fought the same fight he fought vs. Provodnikov (i.e., stood in the pocket and exchanged punches), Marquez probably would've won the fight. But it's very difficult for a counter puncher to outbox someone with such a significant foot and hand speed advantage and enough ring savvy to use those advantages to elude counters. There were quite a few close, competitive rounds but I thought Bradley clearly won the fight. (Interesting fact: the official judges disagreed on how to score 7 out of the 12 rounds in the fight, including 3 out of the first 4 rounds and 4 out of the last 5 rounds.) 

Bradley is still undefeated and is now Ring Magazine's #3 pound-for-pound boxer. So what's next for Bradley? Floyd Mayweather and Adrien Broner seem unlikely as they are both affiliated with Golden Boy Promotions, a direct competitor of Top Rank Promotions, the promotional company Tim Bradley is affiliated with. (Golden Boy and Top Rank have an oft-publicized acrimonious relationship.) It would seem the winner of the Pacquaio/Rios fight in November or the winner of the Alvarado/Provodnikov fight on HBO would be the most likely candidates. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Mike Alvarado and Ruslan Provodnikov.

Bradley vs. Marquez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Timothy Bradley (30-0-0-1, 12 KOs) vs. Juan Manuel Marquez (55-6-1, 40 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center (UNLV), Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 12, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Marquez -140, Bradley +120 (5 Dimes, 10/12/13)
Purse: Marquez: $4 million, Bradley: $4.1 million (Note: Marquez guaranteed at least an additional $2 million from Mexican television rights and other sources of revenue so effective guaranteed purse for Marquez is $6 million)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Marquez #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Bradley #8 ranked pound-for-pound (#4 ranked welterweight).
Style: Marquez: Orthodox, Bradley: Orthodox

Positives for Marquez

• Excellent counter puncher. Unquestionably one of the best counter punchers of this generation. 
• Master technician. Outstanding technical savvy with ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight.
• Not as quick as Bradley or Manny Pacquiao, but has quick hand speed and reflexes.
• Highly accurate counter puncher with excellent timing. Although a counter puncher by nature, will be aggressive when he needs to be. 
• Versatile fighter with good knockout power in both hands. 
• Significantly more experienced than Bradley. Participated in more title and big money PPV fights than Bradley.
• Fights with tremendous heart; seems to fight at his best in adverse situations.
• Crowd at Thomas & Mack Center will be overwhelmingly pro-Marquez, which could influence not only the fight, but the judges' scoring.
• With the exception of his fight vs. current #1 pound-four-pound Floyd Mayweather, has been highly competitive in every fight of his 20-year career. Fight vs. Floyd was only non-controversial loss of career. First pro fight of career was 1st round disqualification loss (due to headbutt) to boxer he was heavily favored against.
• At 40 years old, stronger than he's ever been. Marquez's new strength and conditioning coach (Angel Heredia) has helped greatly improve Marquez's strength and stamina.
• Future first ballot Hall of Famer. Arguably one of the top 5 Mexican boxers of all time. Arguably the #3 boxer pound-for-pound fighting today, behind Floyd Mayweather and Andre Ward.    
• Has a Hall of Fame trainer (Nacho Beristain), who has trained him since he was eight years old.

Negatives for Marquez

• Though he has shown improvement with age, Marquez is 40 years old. Marquez is past his prime, and hasn't fought in 10 months, one of the longest layoffs of his career. There is a possibility his age may show in this fight.
•  Marquez is quick, but he's at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage to Bradley. Marquez had even greater speed disadvantage vs. Pacquiao but Bradley is more technically savvy than Pacquiao and usually doesn't allow himself to get out of defensive position and open to counter punching.
• Marquez has very good power in both hands and has gotten stronger over the past couple of years but his power is overrated. Marquez does not hit as hard as Provodnikov and likely will not be able to KO Bradley (unless Bradley is still feeling effects from Provodnikov fight which is highly possible). 
• Is Marquez a cheater? Fighters rarely gain strength as they move up in weight; yet Marquez appears to have done so. He's bulked up significantly over the past couple of years, yet has retained his quickness (and has arguably gotten even quicker) which is highly unusual given his age and the fact that athletes who bulk up almost always lose some quickness. Marquez's strength gains have come under new trainer Angel Heredia, who admitted before a federal grand jury that he supplied illegal substances to numerous elite athletes, including former Olympic gold medalists Marion Jones and Tim Montgomery. (He was the key witness in their cases.) Heredia went to the extent of changing his last name a few years ago in an attempt to escape the doping controversy.

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has displayed tremendous heart and willpower in his last couple of fights vs. Manny Pacquiao and Ruslan Provodnikov
• Although Marquez is quick, Bradley has a clear quickness, hand speed, and foot speed advantage.Though his fight-of-the year candidate match vs. Provodnikov turned into a brawl, Bradley can be a highly elusive fighter. Bradley moves very well and has incredible stamina due to his conditioning.
• Technically savvy. Like Marquez, has ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight. Not as technically savvy as Marquez but, like Marquez, is one of the best counter punchers in boxing today.
• High volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his last fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his last fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career.
• Is a naturally bigger man than Marquez. On fight night will weigh at least a few pounds more than Marquez.
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 6 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest.
• Currently in his prime and has a 10-year age advantage vs. Marquez (30 years old vs. 40 years old).
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Is Bradley still feeling the effects of the Provodnikov fight a few months ago? Bradley admitted having headaches, balance problems, and slurred speech for weeks after the fight. There is an established history of boxers losing confidence and becoming gun shy after brutal wars such as the Provodnikov fight. His fight vs. Provodnikov may leave him more susceptible to being KO'ed vs. Marquez.
• While a very technically sound boxer and counterpuncher, Bradley is not as technically skilled/savvy as Marquez. Marquez is also the much more experienced boxer.
• Bradley has decent power, but is power is far from great. Bradley will likely not KO Marquez; he will have to win the fight by decision.

Summary

In my opinion, Bradley has learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight and will use his speed advantage and lateral movement to set the pace early (as opposed to engaging in a sustained brawl with an all-time great counter puncher). Bradley is a high volume, aggressive puncher but has the quickness, speed, and elusive defensive ability to stay out of trouble vs. Marquez's effective counter punching ability. Bradley has incredible stamina so should be able to move effectively and avoid the brunt of Marquez's power for 12 rounds. Marquez will likely be effective at times, but Bradley has a great chin (much better than Pacquiao's or anyone else Marquez has ever fought that matter with the exception of maybe Marco Antonio Barrera) and should be able to withstand any pressure Marquez puts on him with his chin and lateral movement.When fighting smart, Bradley is only one level below Mayweather in terms of elusiveness and ability to defend against pressure; which is excellent as Mayweather is certainly one of the greats, if not the all-time greatest in that regard. 

I think Bradley's punch volume, hand and foot speed advantage, and defensive elusiveness will overcome Marquez's counter punching ability and his advantages in technical skill and power to win the fight. My only major concern is whether or not Bradley's skills and/or confidence have diminished as a result of the Provodnikov fight, a brutal fight which, by his own admission, greatly affected him both mentally and physically.

Prediction: Bradley by decision