Location: Thomas & Mack Center (UNLV), Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 12, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Marquez -140, Bradley +120 (5 Dimes, 10/12/13)
Purse: Marquez: $4 million, Bradley: $4.1 million (Note: Marquez guaranteed at least an additional $2 million from Mexican television rights and other sources of revenue so effective guaranteed purse for Marquez is $6 million)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Marquez #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Bradley #8 ranked pound-for-pound (#4 ranked welterweight).
Style: Marquez: Orthodox, Bradley: Orthodox
Positives for Marquez
- Excellent counter puncher. Unquestionably one of the best counter punchers of this generation.
- Master technician. Outstanding technical savvy with ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight.
- Not as quick as Bradley or Manny Pacquiao, but has quick hand speed and reflexes.
- Highly accurate counter puncher with excellent timing. Although a counter puncher by nature, will be aggressive when he needs to be.
- Versatile fighter with good knockout power in both hands.
- Significantly more experienced than Bradley. Participated in more title and big money PPV fights than Bradley.
- Fights with tremendous heart; seems to fight at his best in adverse situations.
- Crowd at Thomas & Mack Center will be overwhelmingly pro-Marquez, which could influence not only the fight, but the judges' scoring.
- With the exception of his fight vs. current #1 pound-four-pound Floyd Mayweather, has been highly competitive in every fight of his 20-year career. Fight vs. Floyd was only non-controversial loss of career. First pro fight of career was 1st round disqualification loss (due to headbutt) to boxer he was heavily favored against.
- At 40 years old, stronger than he's ever been. Marquez's new strength and conditioning coach (Angel Heredia) has helped greatly improve Marquez's strength and stamina.
- Future first ballot Hall of Famer. Arguably one of the top 5 Mexican boxers of all time. Arguably the #3 boxer pound-for-pound fighting today, behind Floyd Mayweather and Andre Ward.
- Has a Hall of Fame trainer (Nacho Beristain), who has trained him since he was eight years old.
Negatives for Marquez
- Though he has shown improvement with age, Marquez is 40 years old. Marquez is past his prime, and hasn't fought in 10 months, one of the longest layoffs of his career. There is a possibility his age may show in this fight.
- Marquez is quick, but he's at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage to Bradley. Marquez had even greater speed disadvantage vs. Pacquiao but Bradley is more technically savvy than Pacquiao and usually doesn't allow himself to get out of defensive position and open to counter punching.
- Marquez has very good power in both hands and has gotten stronger over the past couple of years but his power is overrated. Marquez does not hit as hard as Provodnikov and likely will not be able to KO Bradley (unless Bradley is still feeling effects from Provodnikov fight which is highly possible).
- Is Marquez a cheater? Fighters rarely gain strength as they move up in weight; yet Marquez appears to have done so. He's bulked up significantly over the past couple of years, yet has retained his quickness (and has arguably gotten even quicker) which is highly unusual given his age and the fact that athletes who bulk up almost always lose some quickness. Marquez's strength gains have come under new trainer Angel Heredia, who admitted before a federal grand jury that he supplied illegal substances to numerous elite athletes, including former Olympic gold medalists Marion Jones and Tim Montgomery. (He was the key witness in their cases.) Heredia went to the extent of changing his last name a few years ago in an attempt to escape the doping controversy.
Positives for Bradley
- Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has displayed tremendous heart and willpower in his last couple of fights vs. Manny Pacquiao and Ruslan Provodnikov
- Although Marquez is quick, Bradley has a clear quickness, hand speed, and foot speed advantage.Though his fight-of-the year candidate match vs. Provodnikov turned into a brawl, Bradley can be a highly elusive fighter. Bradley moves very well and has incredible stamina due to his conditioning.
- Technically savvy. Like Marquez, has ability to adjust to opponent's tendencies during fight. Not as technically savvy as Marquez but, like Marquez, is one of the best counter punchers in boxing today.
- High volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his last fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
- Incredible chin, as shown in his last fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career.
- Is a naturally bigger man than Marquez. On fight night will weigh at least a few pounds more than Marquez.
- Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 6 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest.
- Currently in his prime and has a 10-year age advantage vs. Marquez (30 years old vs. 40 years old).
- Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.
Negatives for Bradley
- Is Bradley still feeling the effects of the Provodnikov fight a few months ago? Bradley admitted having headaches, balance problems, and slurred speech for weeks after the fight. There is an established history of boxers losing confidence and becoming gun shy after brutal wars such as the Provodnikov fight. His fight vs. Provodnikov may leave him more susceptible to being KO'ed vs. Marquez.
- While a very technically sound boxer and counterpuncher, Bradley is not as technically skilled/savvy as Marquez. Marquez is also the much more experienced boxer.
- Bradley has decent power, but is power is far from great. Bradley will likely not KO Marquez; he will have to win the fight by decision.
Summary
In my opinion, Bradley has learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight and will use his speed advantage and lateral movement to set the pace early (as opposed to engaging in a sustained brawl with an all-time great counter puncher). Bradley is a high volume, aggressive puncher but has the quickness, speed, and elusive defensive ability to stay out of trouble vs. Marquez's effective counter punching ability. Bradley has incredible stamina so should be able to move effectively and avoid the brunt of Marquez's power for 12 rounds. Marquez will likely be effective at times, but Bradley has a great chin (much better than Pacquiao's or anyone else Marquez has ever fought that matter with the exception of maybe Marco Antonio Barrera) and should be able to withstand any pressure Marquez puts on him with his chin and lateral movement.When fighting smart, Bradley is only one level below Mayweather in terms of elusiveness and ability to defend against pressure; which is excellent as Mayweather is certainly one of the greats, if not the all-time greatest in that regard.
I think Bradley's punch volume, hand and foot speed advantage, and defensive elusiveness will overcome Marquez's counter punching ability and his advantages in technical skill and power to win the fight. My only major concern is whether or not Bradley's skills and/or confidence have diminished as a result of the Provodnikov fight, a brutal fight which, by his own admission, greatly affected him both mentally and physically.
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