Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Broner vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-2-0 24 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (36-0-0, 30 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: July 29, 2017
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia: -200, Broner: +185 (5 Dimes, 7/29/17)
Purse: Garcia: $1 million, Broner: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #1 ranked lightweight, Broner: Not ranked (neither fighter is ranked at super lightweight)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Broner: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Of all the big fights this year between high-profile boxers this could very easily end up being the most entertaining of them all. You have an undefeated, three-division world champion in Mikey Garcia moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time in his career vs. a former four-division world champion in Adrien Broner, who comes into this fight as a significant underdog but is undefeated fighting below 147 lbs. Shortly after this fight was announced, Garcia was as high as a -720 (!) favorite over Broner but the odds have tightened considerably over the past few weeks to where Garcia is now only a little bit more than a -200 favorite at most sportsbooks.

As the undefeated - arguably more skilled - and more serious and composed fighter, Garcia understandably comes into this fight as the clear favorite. But Broner, despite his previous struggles vs. top-level contenders and immaturity in as well as outside of the ring, is a high IQ boxer in his own right with A-level talent and very good punching power at 140 lbs. There is also a potential size disparity here - Garcia's last fight was at lightweight (135 lbs) and he'll be moving up to 140 lbs to fight at a weight he's never fought at before while Broner's last  fight was at welterweight (147 lbs) and he'll be moving down to fight at a weight where he'll likely be more comfortable and have more effective punching power vs. his smaller opponent.

This fight is a clash between two of the more well-known non-PPV fighters in the sport. The fight is the biggest fight in both boxers' careers and is especially intriguing given both the clash in personalities (serious, laid-back, quiet Garcia vs. the often silly, brash, loquacious Broner) and clash in fighting styles (cautiously aggressive power puncher in Garcia vs. relatively low-output counter puncher in Broner). If Garcia wins on Saturday, he'll cement his return (after having fought just twice in the past 3.5 years due to a contract dispute with his previous promoter, Top Rank) as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and should set him up nicely for a big money fight - whether that's a title shot at 140 lbs or at title defense back down at 135 lbs, where he is the current WBC champion.

If Broner wins it would be the signature win of his career and go a (very) long way to proving to his numerous skeptics that he's now serious about living up to his enormous potential. As one of only 16 fighters in the history of boxing to have won major titles in 4 different weight classes, if Broner can pull off the upset here vs. Garcia, the boxing community will have to start at least thinking - as crazy as it may sound to some - about whether this guy deserves a spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame someday.

Why Mikey Garcia will win

Garcia is an undefeated (36-0) boxer who has won major world titles in three division, including the lightweight division where he is the current WBC champion. Garcia won that lightweight championship this past January via 3rd round KO, in what was his first career fight in the lightweight division and only his second fight after a 2.5 year layoff from the sport due to a contractual dispute with then promoter Top Rank.

Garcia is a very good to great boxing technician with excellent punching power, as evidenced by his career 83.3% career KO ratio which ranks among the best of any active boxer regardless of weight class. Pound-for-pound, Garcia is indeed one of the hardest punchers in the sport, but he's also an extremely patient fighter who boxes with caution and tends to wait for opportunities to counter from mid- and long-range distance rather than brawl inside. Garcia will almost certainly not be as aggressive or physical as Marcos Maidana or Shawn Porter were in their victories vs. Broner (which are the only two losses of Broner's career) but his punch output is higher than the relatively low-volume Broner and his notable punching power should be effective enough even at the higher weight class, especially against a somewhat flat-footed Broner. Garcia scored two knockdowns in his only other career appearance in the super lightweight division, a 5th round TKO victory vs. Elio Rojas last July. (The TKO loss to Garcia was the first time Rojas had been stopped in his career.)  

Garcia is also known as a high IQ boxer who makes up for lack of elite athleticism with excellent fundamentals and footwork. His balance and leverage behind which he throws his power punches is somewhat resemblant of the fighter widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport, Gennady Golovkin. While he likely won't be as effective as Maidana or Porter were at smothering Broner with hyper-aggression, he has much better timing and accuracy than either of those boxers (or any boxer Broner has faced previously in his career for that matter),  and his patient, cautious style will leave him much less susceptible to Broner's counter punching than Maidana or Porter were. (Despite losing to both, Broner landed his share of clean shots vs. Porter and Maidana; Porter was knocked down in the 12th round in his victory over Broner and Maidana has commented multiple times on Broner being the hardest puncher he's ever faced.)

Unlike Broner, who is a jokester by nature and has developed a reputation for not taking the sport as seriously as he perhaps should, Garcia has always been a very serious, mature fighter who seemingly always comes into his fights very focused and prepared. Garcia knows that this is the biggest fight of his career and a win over Broner - one of the most well-known boxers in the sport - will lead to significant paydays in future fights as it did for both Maidana and Porter, who each have earned seven-figure paydays in all of their fights since defeating Broner. (Maidana earned over $3 million in each of his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather before retiring and, after beating Broner, Porter earned at least $1 million in his fights vs. both Keith Thurman and Andre Berto.)

Garcia is a fighter many consider to be one of the best in the sport pound-for-pound and is facing an opponent in Broner who has lost decisively (by wide unanimous decision) every time he's stepped up to face a top-level opponent. Broner's most high profile win was perhaps a controversial split-decision victory vs. Paulie Malignaggi, who was 32-years old at the time and a bit past his prime. Broner typically performs below expectation in his fights; the last fight in which Broner clearly met or exceeded performance expectations was perhaps his 8th round TKO victory way back in 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, who was a very solid contender at the time.

Garcia is likely much more familiar with Broner's fighting style and tendencies than Broner is of his. Garcia is trained by his older brother, widely respected trainer Robert Garcia, who was Maidana's trainer when Maidana decisively beat Broner in Broner's first career loss back in 2013 (a fight where Broner suffered the only two knockdowns of his career). Garcia's familiarity and previous success training against Broner should allow him to better prepare for this fight compared to Broner's training team, who have relatively little recent film on Garcia to draw from given that Garcia has only fought twice and in a total of eight rounds in the past 3.5 years (due largely to his 2.5 years of inactivity).

Why Adrien Broner will win

Broner is a former four-division world champion who, when he was just 26 years old, became the youngest fighter in boxing history to win major world titles in four different weight classes. Although he often hasn't fought up to his potential thus far in his career (which makes having won world titles in four different weight classes all the more impressive), Broner is a top-level talent who less than 3.5 years ago was ranked #5 pound-for-pound in the world by Ring Magazine and considered by some the heir apparent to Floyd Mayweather before his surprising loss to Maidana, who came into the fight as high as a 5-1 (+500) underdog.

Broner is a 27-year old fighter still very much in the prime of his career and will come into Saturday's fight holding advantages in size, physical strength, and athleticism over Gracia. Broner also has quicker hands and - despite Garcia's proven punching power - Broner may actually have slightly better power than Garcia at 140 lbs. Broner's size and strength in particular may be a major factor in this fight - despite the two losses (and getting knocked down twice in the process), Broner was able to hold his own and showed a good chin at a higher weight class (147 lbs) vs. two well-respected punchers in Maidana and Porter; it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Broner have better success managing Garcia's power at this lower weight. Garcia, on the other hand, has been knocked down once before - in 2013 at a much lower weight class (130 lbs) and by a fighter in Rocky Martinez not known for his punching power. Garcia's chin has been relatively untested in the lower weight classes he's fought in - Broner will be (perhaps by far) the biggest, toughest power puncher he's faced thus far in his career.

This is Garcia's first fight at a full 140 lbs, a weight Broner has fought at or higher than in the majority of his fights over the past four years and won a world title in less than two years ago. Broner has the two losses in his career, but he's undefeated (29-0) fighting below 147 lbs and will be fighting a smaller, weaker guy in Garcia. Broner's two losses at welterweight were largely due to Maidana and Porter being able to use their physicality and awkward, hyper-aggressive fighting styles to overwhelm Broner; a smaller, less aggressive Garcia likely won't be able to do the same Saturday night.

Garcia is known to be a high IQ, very skilled fighter but Broner is a slick, skilled technician in his own right; Broner is a relatively accurate, efficient puncher with power in both hands (as evidenced by his respectable 67% TKO/KO percentage), as well as an effective jab and solid one-two combination punching (though the knock on Broner is he's often not been able to put together more than two-punch combination punches vs. tougher opponents).

Broner also has an advantage in experience over Garcia, having fought numerous former world champions including Porter, Maidana, Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce De Leon, De Marco, and Gavin Rees, among others. Garcia is relatively untested in comparison, with perhaps the best wins of his career coming in 2013 vs. Juan Manuel Lopez - who's lost his last four title fights by TKO/KO due to a weak chin - and vs. 13-loss former world champion Orlando Salido. It also seems to be getting overlooked that Garcia has fought only twice in the past 3.5 years. Given Garcia's relatively weak level of competition and recent inactivity over the past few years it's highly possible Garcia is being overrated in this matchup.

Despite being a bit flat-footed, Broner has better defense than most give him credit for. Broner is adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. With his quick reflexes, he slips and rolls punches fairly well from inside and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. If Garcia's punching power doesn't carry up to 140 lbs as well as most expect it will there's a good chance Broner's defense will easily be able to withstand Garcia's attack. If Broner was able to last 12 rounds at welterweight with an over 80% TKO/KO percentage fighter in Maidana, and was able to withstand the attack of Porter - a big welterweight who has had a lot of pro experience fighting at middleweight (160 lbs) - it stands to reason that Broner won't have too much difficulty with a less imposing, relatively patient puncher in Garcia who's coming up from a smaller weight class.

Broner has shown signs of taking this fight more seriously than previous high-profile fights where he's put forth disappointing performances. He's moved his training camp from his usual locations in Cincinnati, Ohio and Washington, D.C. to Colorado Springs, Colorado where he trained earlier in his career - presumably to minimize outside distractions. Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights in the past and/or has negotiated a change in weight limit at the last minute so he could make weight but appears to have made the 140 lb weight for this fight without difficulty. Broner is a high profile, polarizing character who sells tickets often on his personality alone but he's well aware that Saturday's fight vs. Garcia may be his last opportunity to create a path to the Mayweather-level PPV superstardom he desires. Broner appears to be relishing the underdog status he has in this fight and sees this fight as an opportunity to prove a lot of his doubters wrong.

Prefight Analysis

In many ways this is a favorable matchup for Broner - he is the superior fighter in terms of size, physical strength, quickness, and athleticism. Broner also has more experience vs. top-level opponents and, at 140 lbs, arguably even packs more power behind his punch than the heavy-handed Garcia. Garcia may be the more skilled, fundamentally sound fighter but his skill and power will be mitigated by the fact that he's moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time vs. a slick, defensively solid fighter in Broner who is comfortable at 140 lbs and even won a world title in the weight class less than two years ago. Broner is the biggest, most skilled, and most effective puncher Garcia has fought in his career. He's certainly a live underdog; if the +500 odds (for Broner to win) this fight opened at back in June were available today, I would take happily those odds and bet Broner without thinking too much about it.

With that said, I like Garcia to win this fight (at -200 odds) for a few reasons. Firstly, Garcia has always been a big boxer for the smaller weights he's fought at, to the extent of having had trouble making weight in a few fights and even losing his WBO featherweight title on the scales in his 2013 TKO victory vs. Juan Manuel Lopez after failing to make weight. 140 lbs is closer to Garcia's normal walk-around weight of 150-155 lbs; I see Garcia adjusting just fine to a weight closer to his normal weight and think his power will carry up to the higher weight accordingly. While Broner is resilient and has shown a decent chin vs. bigger opponents, I expect Garcia's power to be effective enough to cause problems for Broner, especially when you combine the leverage with which he throws his punches with his excellent timing and accuracy.

Again, Broner is the bigger, stronger fighter in this matchup but a big key here is that stylistically, Broner's a relatively low-volume, 1-2 punch combination counter puncher. I anticipate Broner's style and reluctance in many spots to be the aggressor to mostly mitigate the physical advantages he has over Garcia. Broner is at times flat-footed and often tentative in his attack, which I think will allow Garcia to press his attack more in the middle and later rounds after he develops a read on Broner's tendencies; I see Garcia having more success landing his jab and power right hand in particular as the fight progresses and he adjusts to Broner's style.

Broner is saying the Garcia fight will be the fight where he turns things around and shows why he should be considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport but he's actually said the same thing prior to most of his recent fights. The fact is, Broner hasn't performed up to expectations (i.e., the expectations of the A-level fighter that he was rated as earlier in his career) in *any* of his fights in recent years and has even struggled to win rounds vs. B-level fighters like Adrian Granados and Ashley Theophane (his two most recent opponents).

Garcia is perhaps the best fighter Broner has fought thus far in his career (a career in which he's already suffered two decisive losses, as well as being awarded multiple decisions that were deemed controversial and I think it will show Saturday night in what will be at times a highly competitive and entertaining, but clear victory for Garcia by decision or late stoppage. Broner certainly has the size, power, and skill to beat (or even stop) Garcia but given his fight style, I don't see him using his physicality or throwing enough punches to outpoint a patient - but more active - fighter in Garcia over the course of 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia to win

Recommended bet: Garcia to win (1 unit)

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Crawford vs. Postol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) vs. Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: July 23, 2016
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and WBO Super Lightweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Crawford -570, Postol +480 (5 Dimes, 7/23/16)
Purse: Crawford: $1.3 million, Postol: $675,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #6 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked junior welterweight, Postol: #1 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Postol: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

Terence Crawford is being promoted as potentially the next great American boxing superstar; this fight will go a long way towards answering whether he can achieve that potential. Saturday night's fight is the PPV debut for both Crawford and Postol. Both are undefeated with identical 28-0 records and are universally recognized as the top two fighters at 140 lbs. The winner of this fight will likely be the favorite as the next opponent for Manny Pacquiao, whose promoter Bob Arum (who happens to also be the promoter for both Crawford and Postol) has already reserved the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas for a PPV fight in November (though the fact that Postol and Pacquiao have the same trainer in Freddie Roach complicates things in terms of a possible Pacquiao/Postol matchup). The winner of this fight will not only be the WBC and WBO super lightweight champion, but will also be the lineal super lightweight champion (as Danny Garcia vacated that title to move up to the welterweight division.

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year - an up and coming potential superstar in Crawford who is already rated one of the best boxers in the world pound-for-pound vs. an arguably equally skilled but much lesser known fighter in Postol. Crawford is athletically superior in terms of speed, quickness, and power but Postol moves very well on his feet, has the clear reach advantage, and is generally more active in terms of punches thrown. The winner of this fight will be firmly established as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world and sit on the cusp of boxing superstardom, pending the potential fight with Pacquiao this fall.

Why Terence Crawford will win

Despite both fighters being undefeated and head and shoulders above the rest in the 140 lb division, Crawford is a wide 6-1 favorite for multiple reasons. Crawford is the athletically superior fighter, possessing better power, speed, and quickness than Postol (though Crawford's advantages here are perhaps not as wide as some think). Crawford is a two-division (former lightweight and current super lightweight) world champion and the more proven fighter, having beaten former world champions and top contenders such as Yuriokis Gamboa, Ricky Burns, Raymundo Beltran, Thomas Dulorme, Dierry Jean, and Hank Lundy. (Postol by comparison has fought only two opponents ranked in the top 20 within his division - Lucas Matthysse and Hank Lundy.)

Crawford's versatility - most notably his ability to fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance at an elite level - will likely pose problems for Postol whose defense can be a bit careless in spots... in particular the way he shoots his jab while moving to the right, which sometimes leaves him susceptible to right-hand counters. Crawford is an accurate counter puncher with power in both hands and is outstanding at making mid-round adjustments; one should expect he'll eventually have success penetrating Postol's defense despite Postol's constant foot movement and reach advantage.

Given Postol's lack of top-level experience, there is a reasonable chance he's overrated despite being undefeated and the #2-ranked fighter in the division. Crawford is a (huge) step up for him and is by far the most talented and skilled boxer he's fought in his professional career. Postol has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career (even vs. highly feared power puncher Matthysse where he displayed a solid combination of good chin and elusiveness defensively) but if Postol's undefeated record is more a case of him looking better than we thought he was vs. B- and C-level fighters, Crawford's power and skills (which are generally regarded as A-level) will likely expose Postol fairly quickly.  

At 5'11", Postol has a 3" height advantage in this fight and fights tall but that may work against him as Postol's relatively tall frame may prove to be an easy target for an accurate puncher like Crawford.

Postol has displayed surprisingly good power in his three fights under Freddie Roach but Crawford, like Postol, has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown an excellent chin in some of his more high profile fights (in particular vs. power puncher Gamboa) so one shouldn't expect a fighter with a 43% KO percentage in Postol to stop Crawford (or pose any sort of threat in terms of punching power for that matter).

Crawford is from Omaha, Nebraska and tonight's fight is in Las Vegas but Crawford's Omaha fanbase travels very well (Crawford's fight this past February in New York City sold out largely due to Crawford's fanbase) and the fact that Crawford is American should render Crawford the strong crowd favorite at the MGM Grand, which should provide motivation for Crawford inside the ring and could influence the judges' scoring outside of it. Crawford has been promoted as the A-side for this PPV event and - for numerous reasons - boxing politics would strongly prefer a Crawford vs. Pacquiao rather than Postol vs. Pacquiao matchup later this fall. If the fight is close one should expect the judging to favor the the fighter being promoted as a future superstar over the lesser known Ukrainian - even if Postol slightly outboxes him.

Why Viktor Postol will win

Postol comes into this fight as a significant underdog but - like Crawford - is an undefeated world champion in the 140 lb division. While not quite as athletic as Crawford, Postol - in my opinion - is on Crawford's level in terms of skill and boxing IQ. (In the effort to promote Crawford as a future superstar I do think Crawford's skills have been a bit overrated by numerous boxing outlets, most notably HBO Sports.)

Postol is a relatively tall (5'11"), lengthy (73.5" reach) fighter who is adept at working behind his long jab to set up combination punches from distance. With a long 70" reach, Crawford is a fighter who typically enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents, which he's often used behind the jab as a timing mechanism; Saturday night will be a rare instance where Crawford will not have a reach advantage (and on the contrary will actually have a clear disadvantage in reach).

As a combination puncher, Postol is a high punch volume fighter who moves very well on his feet. Crawford - especially in the early rounds - is typically a patient, cautious fighter who likely won't match Postol's work rate. Crawford is notorious for being a slow starter; in recent fights he lost the 1st round to Ricky Burns, lost 3 or 4 of the first 4 rounds to Gamboa, was trailing most of the 1st round vs. Beltran before rallying late to take the round, lost the 1st round vs. Dulorme, was losing the 1st round vs. Jean before scoring a knockout late in the round, and lost the 1st round vs. Lundy. Against a highly skilled, elusive fighter with a high work rate and considerable reach advantage like Postol, I actually expect Crawford to be trailing after the early rounds while trying to figure out how to break down Postol's relatively unusual combination of height, reach, high punch volume, and mobility. Given Postol's ability to fight off his back foot, there is a good chance that much of this fight is fought from the outside - where Postol likely has an advantage with his reach and work rate.
Three years ago, Crawford fought Prescott, a talented fighter with a height (5'11") and reach (72") similar to Postol's in a fight that Crawford dominated... but Prescott did not have the combination punching skills or work rate that Postol has.

Crawford has made a career recently of fighting talented, but undersized opponents; Crawford's last two opponents - Lundy and Jean - both were fighting at lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up in weight to fight Crawford. Both Gamboa and Burns were noticeably smaller than Crawford when Crawford fought them at lightweight. (Gamboa had actually been a featherweight - two divisions below lightweight - for most of his career but was still able to give Crawford a lot of problems in the early rounds of their fight.) Postol is a natural 140 lb fighter and is actually naturally bigger than Crawford. This will be the first fight of Crawford's career vs. a world-class opponent of his own size; Crawford may not be able to overpower Postol like he has many of the smaller fighters he's faced in recent fights.

Crawford slips punches well but at times gets careless and is more than willing to take punches to set up his own attack. (Gamboa in particular tagged Crawford quite a bit in the early rounds of their fight and tested his chin early.) Crawford has heart and a lot of street fight in him but that may work to his disadvantage vs. Postol's combination of intelligent movement. reach advantage, volume, and ability to box on his feet from distance. I would not be surprised if Postol is able to neutralize Crawford's strong jab game with his longer jab and movement, which may frustrate Crawford and lead to countering opportunities for Postol from distance as Crawford increases his aggressiveness in the middle and late rounds. Note also that Postol is proven to have a solid chin, having never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, including his most recent fight vs. one of the most feared punchers in the sport in Matthysse, who's had 34 of his 37 wins come by KO. Crawford is certainly more skilled than Matthysse, but does not have Matthysse's power and is not a particularly busy fighter so it is tough for me to envision Crawford winning this fight by stoppage given Postol's strong chin and elusive style.  Note that in training under Freddie Roach, Postol has had a lot of experience sparring vs. Manny Pacquiao, who has more power, speed, and arguably more skill than even Crawford.

With a career 43% KO percentage, Postol is hardly a feared power puncher but in his last three fights under Freddie Roach, Postol has been much more effective with his power, winning 2 or his last 3 fights by KO (vs. arguably the two toughest opponents of his career to date in Matthysse and Aydin). Postol is not a one-punch power puncher but is effective in wearing down his opponents with volume; I don't see Postol stopping Crawford but do think Postol has enough sneaky power to heavily frustrate Crawford if he stays busy and keeps Crawford at a distance with movement.

With his somewhat rare combination of height, reach, high-level skills, punch volume, and savvy ring movement, Postol has an unorthodox style that is difficult to prepare for and defend against. If Crawford is even slightly overrated - which I believe he is - Postol's style will expose Crawford fairly quickly and this will be a much, much closer fight than expected.

Prefight Analysis

I think Crawford is the better fighter overall and will probably win this fight. He is the more athletic, experienced fighter with advantages in versatility, power, and speed; as the fighter being heavily promoted by politically powerful boxing entities such as HBO Sports, Top Rank, etc. as a future superstar and with a potential Pacquiao/Crawford PPV megafight looming for early November, Crawford will likely win this fight on the judges' scorecards, even in the event of a close fight where Postol slightly outboxes him. Given how well Crawford's core fan base from Omaha travels and the fact that he is the American in this matchup with an entertaining, fan-friendly style, Crawford will also have the advantage of fighting in front of what should be an overwhelmingly pro-Crawford crowd in Las Vegas.

But even with these advantages (most notably the boxing politics, which in theory shouldn't be a factor but realistically has a good chance to be), I still give Postol a very realistic chance to win this fight. While I think Crawford is a fun to watch, highly skilled boxer, I think he's been a bit overrated in HBO's (in my view somewhat desperate) effort to find the next great American boxing superstar (and a superstar who can eventually replace Pacquiao as the network's next PPV cash cow). While not as athletic, I do believe Postol to be on Crawford's level in terms of skill and believe he has a difficult-to-solve combination of height, reach advantage, intelligent ring movement, and strong chin to highly frustrate even the usually unflappable Crawford.

The typically fast starting Postol will likely outwork the typically cautious, slow starting Crawford in the early rounds but I think Postol has the chin, stamina, and overall skills to win enough of the middle and late rounds to potentially steal a decision from the heavily favored Crawford. I think Crawford actually wins this matchup 65-75% of the time, but even at that win rate the nearly 5-1 odds you can get on Postol to win the fight (or better yet, the up to 7-1 odds for Postol to win the fight by decision) makes betting on Postol to win a very solid value bet.

While I think Postol by decision at 6.5-1 or 7-1 is a slightly stronger bet than Postol simply to win at nearly 5-1, 5-1 is high enough odds worth taking to mitigate the risk of a shocking stoppage of Crawford by the Ukrainian (which I don't see happening but, as he showed in his last fight vs. Matthysse, Postol is capable of wearing his opponents down with volume and has enough sneaky power in his right hand to catch a fatigued opponent late).

Postol is the best fighter Crawford has ever faced and is the first top-level fighter Crawford has fought that isn't undersized (and is actually naturally bigger than he is). Given his 3.5" reach advantage and own effective jab, Postol is perhaps the only fighter  at 140 lbs that can neutralize Crawford's typically highly effective jab game; if Postol keeps the fight at a distance and off the ropes with his reach advantage, he has a chance to come away with a decision on points by outworking Crawford with high punch volume.

Regardless of who wins this matchup, the chins on both fighters (neither Crawford or Postol have been stopped or knocked down in their professional careers, even though both have fought fighters with more power than what they're each facing tonight) are so solid that I think it's highly likely that this fight goes 12 rounds, making a bet on the fight to go 12 rounds at -160 odds perhaps the strongest bet. Even if Crawford performs better than I expect and is able to dominate and overwhelm Postol in the middle and late rounds, I still think Postol's foot movement, excellent chin, and ability to jab from distance will get him through 12 rounds without being stopped. As unflappable as Crawford typically is, Postol has displayed a similar lack of fluster under pressure (see rounds 6 and 7 of his fight with Matthysse).

Looking forward to this fight - very intriguing matchup that has potentially a myriad of ways to unfold!

Prediction: Crawford to win

Recommended bets: 1) Crawford/Postol goes full 12 rounds (1 unit)

2) Postol to win by decision (.5 unit)

3) Postol to win (.5 unit)

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Matthysse vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Lucas Matthysse (36-3-0-1, 34 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs)
Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, New York
Date: April 18, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO
Line: Matthysse -165, Provodnikov +155 (5 Dimes, 4/18/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Matthysse: #1 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov: #3 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Matthysse: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox



Positives for Matthysse
Negatives for Matthysse
Positives for Provodnikov
Negatives for Provodnikov
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Matthysse

• Former interim WBC light welterweight champion. Along with Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev considered one of the best power punchers in boxing and is considered by many to be the most feared power puncher in boxing fighting under 160 lbs. Has legitimate KO power in both hands; 34 out of his 36 victories have come by TKO/KO. Has one of the highest KO% in boxing at 85% (34 wins by TKO/KO out of 40 fights). Arguably one of the top 5 offensive fighters in the sport.
• Aggressive, come-forward pressure fighter but also has decent, underrated boxing skills. Good combination puncher who throws a wide variety of power punches (overhand rights, straight rights, left hooks) from different angles and punches effectively both to the head and to the body. Cuts off the ring very well (though vs. another pressure fighter like Provodnikov he likely won't need to cut off the ring much, if at all).
• Has lost only 3 fights in his career - a close but clear unanimous decision loss to current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia, and two highly controversial split decision losses to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (both Alexander and Judah were knocked down in those fights). These 3 losses were vs. faster, more technically skilled boxers; vs. Provodnikov Matthysse will have the advantage in technical skill and hand speed. Has beaten well-regarded former world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, and DeMarcus Corley - all by early/mid round TKO/KO.  
• Overall, is clearly a better boxer than Provodnikov - has superior technical skills, better foot movement, quicker hands, and higher boxing IQ. Will have a 3" reach advantage vs. Provodnikov and is the more accurate, precise, powerful puncher. 
• Has a decent (though perhaps not great) chin. Has been knocked down 3 times in his last 3 fights (the first 3 knockdowns of his career), but recovered well and never seemed to be in any trouble after getting knocked down.

Negatives for Matthysse

• Matthysse has shown a fairly good chin in the past but how will his chin hold up on Saturday vs. the most aggressive, relentless power puncher he's fought in his career? Matthysse was knocked down 3 times in recent fights vs. Danny Garcia and John Molina Jr. - neither of whom are nearly as aggressive or relentless as Provodnikov (though Molina has comparable power). There is a high risk Matthysse goes down again in this fight if he does not get to Provodnikov first - it will be interesting to see how Matthysse recovers if this happens.  
• Matthysse has possibly lost confidence since getting knocked down for the 1st time in his career in his September 2013 fight vs. Garcia (which was the first uncontroversial loss of his career) and has been knocked down two more times since then. Provodnikov is a fiercely determined fighter with seemingly indomitable will who has broken the confidence of top fighters (see his October 2013 fight vs. then WBO light welterweight champion Mike Alvarado).  
• Employs a fairly effective high guard defense but his aggressive, pressuring style often leaves him out of position and open to counter punching. Not a particularly fast or elusive boxer, so Provodnikov, who is also very effective at cutting off the ring, will have his opportunities to land clean power punches. 
• Can be outboxed - in particular vs. speedier, technically sound boxers who move well (see his losses vs. Judah, Alexander, and Garcia) though he comes into the fight vs. Provodnikov with a speed and skill advantage so this likely won't be an issue tonight. But Matthysse may not have the technical skill or chin to keep the high volume and effective pressure of Provodnikov at bay.
• Though in recent fights has improved his work rate in early rounds, Matthysse is known for being a slow starter. Provodnikov will relentlessly pressure Matthysse thoughout the entire 12 round fight so would not be a good idea to get down early on the scorecards in this matchup.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. High volume pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who cuts off the ring well and hits especially hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. In March 2013, knocked down Timothy Bradley - who has one of the best chins in boxing - for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight, a fight which Ring Magazine named fight of the year. Lost a close unanimous decision victory vs. then #3 pound-for-pound ranked Bradley, a fight some felt he won.
• Has lost only three times in his career - vs. Bradley, Chris Algieri (June 2014), and Mauricio Herrera (January 2011); all three losses were close, controversial decisions. Has defeated former world champions Jose Luis Castillo (most recent fight), Mike Alvarado, and DeMarcus Corley.
• Is known for having an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Is a gritty, relentless, durable fighter with excellent stamina. Won't tire in the later rounds of fights. In terms of pure aggression and power will likely give Matthysse the toughest test of his career.
• Trained for this fight with 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach, under whom he has improved considerably since he began training with him in 2012. (Though because Roach is training Manny Pacquiao for his May 2 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, Roach's assistant trainer Marvin Samodio will be the lead trainer for tonight's fight vs. Matthysse.) 
• Humble, likeable boxer from a small village in Siberia with tremendous inner strength and indomitable will to win. Physically tough but even greater mental toughness.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as sharp as Matthysse's, are somewhat underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Provodnikov comes into this fight having lost two out of his last four fights, his most recent at the hands of relatively unknown and inexperienced Algieri, who was as high as an 8-1 underdog. Provodnikov's two most recent wins were a 5th round TKO vs. a past prime Jose Luis Castillo in Russia and a 10th round victory vs. Alvarado, who has lost four out of his last five fights.
• How good is Provodnikov's chin? Provodnikov is noted for never having been knocked down or knocked out in his career but he's also never fought a true power puncher in his prime. Provodnikov's three losses (to Algieri, Bradley, and Herrera) have all been against opponents considered relatively feather-fisted. Freddie Roach admitted in interviews during and after the Bradley fight that he almost stopped the fight in the later rounds due to the accumulation of punches Provodnikov was taking; if Provodnikov was almost stopped vs. a light-fisted Bradley how will he fare vs. one of the best power punchers in the sport in Matthysse? The true strength of Provodnikov's chin will be tested in tonight's fight. 
• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his losses vs. Algieri and Bradley. In addition to having better boxing skills, Matthysse will have a hand speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's predictable come-forward approach combined with lack of speed and defensive fundamentals often makes him easy to hit. Provodnikov is more than willing to stand in front of his opponents and take punches to throw punches, which may not work well for him vs. a devastating power puncher like Matthysse, whose only losses have been vs. technically superior fighters who stayed outside of his punching range. 
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses, especially vs. an accurate power puncher like Matthysse.

Prefight Summary

I think this fight ultimately comes down to how well Provodnikov's chin handles Matthysse's massive punching power. Provodnikov certainly has a very real chance to win this fight. He cuts off the ring just as well - if not better than - Matthysse and will attack Lucas with a combination of relentless aggression and power the likes of which Matthysse has never seen before in his career. Matthysse is not nearly as mobile as Algieri or Bradley (who handed Provodnikov his most recent losses) so he will be forced quite often to stand toe-to-toe with Provodnikov and slug it out. In a brawl such as this, it is largely a matter of which boxer has the greatest punching power, willpower, and chin. Provodnikov I believe has advantages in two out of these three attributes (willpower and chin) so I think he'll have the advantage if, as many expect, this fight turns into an all-out brawl.


Furthermore, it is possible that Matthysse has lost a bit of confidence in both his chin and punching power since losing to Danny Garcia; in that fight (in which Matthysse was listed as a 1-3 favorite), he was knocked down for the first time in his career and it was the first time he failed to knock down or knock out an opponent in over four years (over a span of 14 fights). In the fight following the Garcia fight, Matthysse was surprisingly knocked down two more times by 9-1 underdog John Molina Jr., who has comparable power to Provodnikov, but is not nearly as high volume or aggressive a puncher. If Provodnikov can turn this fight into a brawl and his chin is as good as advertised, there is a very good chance he'll wear Matthysse down and win this fight by TKO/KO in the mid to late rounds.



But I think the key point in evaluating this fight is noting that Provodnikov, while credited for having a great chin, has never fought anyone with Matthysse's brute punching power before. I can't help but think back to Freddie Roach admitting during the fight vs. Bradley that he was close to stopping the fight due to the punishment Provodnikov was taking. Admittedly, Bradley has top-level hand speed so can get his punches and combinations off quicker than Matthysse but he is also notorious for being a light puncher, having only 12 KOs in 34 career fights. If Provodnikov was in danger of being stopped vs. a feather-fisted Tim Bradley, I can't help but think he will be in for a very long night vs. one of the most accurate and heavy-handed power punchers in the sport, a fighter who has taken 34 of his 36 career wins by TKO/KO.


Provodnikov's come-forward, aggressive style will frequently leave him open to clean power punching over the course of the fight. Matthysse's hand speed is a bit faster than Provodnikov's so I see his punches generally landing first (before Provodnikov has a chance to land his) and landing more accurately, given Provodnikov's tendency to throw wild punches. I think we may find that Provodnikov's chin isn't quite as unbreakable as people think after being tested tonight by one of the best power punchers in the sport. This fight will largely be a matter of who gets to who first; I like Matthysse's power vs. a relatively slow, defensively negligient Provodnikov and think he will display just enough boxing skill and movement to keep Ruslan's power at bay. If Matthysse doesn't stop Provodnikov late, I like Lucas to win a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory.


But either way this fight should be a wildly entertaining fight-of-the-year (if not decade) level match-up that every boxing fan, whether hardcore or casual, should look forward to watching!

Prediction: Matthysse to win 

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Garcia vs. Peterson: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (29-0, 17 KOs) vs. Lamont Peterson (33-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 11, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 143 lbs
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Garcia -400, Peterson +325 (5 Dimes, 4/10/15)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Peterson: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: junior welterweight champion, Peterson: #2 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Peterson: Orthodox

Positives for Garcia
Negatives for Garcia
Positives for Peterson
Negatives for Peterson
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Garcia

• Undefeated boxer (29-0) and current WBC, WBA Super, and Ring Magazine light welterweight (140 lbs) champion. Poised, patient counterpuncher with good power who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated world champion and one of the best boxers in the sport. Only 27 years old (over 4 years younger than Peterson) and currently in the prime of his career. 
• Smart, seemingly unflappable boxer with solid boxing skills and hand speed who generally positions himself well in executing his versatile attack. Overall well-rounded boxer with no true glaring weaknesses.
• Has very underrated, dangerous punching power, despite only having 17 KOs in 29 fights (58.6%). Garcia has knocked down 6 of his last 7 opponents, knocking them down a total of 10 times. Garcia's knockouts usually come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch (and happens to be one of the best left hooks, if not the best left hook, in the sport). 
• Has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top quality opponents such as Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, Zab Judah, and Lucas Matthysse. Was a significant underdog vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory in July 2012 and vs. elite power puncher Matthysse, who he knocked down once en route to a competitive but clear unanimous decision win on the Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez undercard in September 2013. In defeating Matthysse, Garcia defeated an opponent who'd just defeated Peterson by 3rd round TKO a few months prior.
• Strong, durable fighter with an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Of Puerto Rican descent (both parents are from Puerto Rico) and will be fighting in New York City, a city only a couple hours from his hometown of Philadelphia and known for its large Puerto Rican population. The crowd at Barclays Center will likely be pro-Garcia.

Negatives for Garcia

• Arguably overrated fighter whose recent wins perhaps aren't all as impressive as they appear to be on paper. In a span of a little over a year beat future first ballot hall-of-famer Morales twice and 5-time world champion Judah, but both opponents were well past their primes at the time of those fights. Most felt Garcia lost his March 2014 majority decision victory vs. tough but light-hitting journeyman Mauricio Herrera in front of a heavily pro-Garcia crowd in Puerto Rico. Has been widely accused of avoiding top quality opponents in recent fights.
• Has pretty good boxing skills but is not an elite technician and is capable of being outboxed. Has arguably been outboxed for stretches of numerous fights, including his fight with Herrera, the early rounds of his first fight vs. Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and his close split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane in February 2010.
• Garcia's nickname, "Swift," is somewhat of a misnomer; while he has good hand speed, he is a bit flat-footed. In Peterson, Garcia will be facing a technically superior boxer who moves well around the ring. 
• In executing his attack, sometimes neglects defense which can make him easy to hit. 

Positives for Peterson

• Former WBA Super and current IBF light welterweight champion. Experienced, clever boxer with a solid amateur pedigree (including National Golden Gloves championship at lightweight back in 2001). Has suffered only two losses in his career - the first in December 2009 to then undefeated and current Ring Magazine #6 pound-for-pound fighter Timothy Bradley and most recently in May 2013 to highly regarded power puncher Lucas Matthysse.   
• Technically solid, legit world-class fighter with good speed, footwork, and endurance. Adept at making adjustments during fights and generally fights better in the mid to late rounds as he wears his opponents down. Comes into this fight vs. Garcia as the technically superior boxer. 
• Adept using the jab (in particular his left jab, which is his best punch) and foot movement to control distance and outbox opponents from the outside but is also capable of coming forward and applying pressure on the inside, as demonstrated in his December 2011 upset victory over Khan to win his current IBF lightweight championship. 
• Relatively tall, lanky fighter who will enter the ring with a slight size and 3.5" reach advantage vs. Garcia. If Peterson uses his reach and sticks with his jab (a punch which gave Garcia numerous problems in his recent controversial win vs. Herrera) it could spell trouble for Garcia.
• Since his TKO loss vs. Mattysse, has performed impressively in his most recent fights vs. then undefeated Dierry Jean and Edgar Santana.
• Not a big puncher (as evidenced by his 47.2% KO ratio), but applies pressure well and punches hard enough to make opponents respect the decent power he has.

Negatives for Peterson

• Peterson has for a long time been regarded as one of the better boxers in the sport but has generally not fared well vs. top-level competition. Suffered decisive losses when stepping up in competition vs. Bradley and Matthysse and had to fight his way back in later rounds to earn a draw vs. Victor Ortiz in December 2010. Scored upset split decision victory vs. Khan in his hometown of D.C. to win the WBA Super and IBF light welterweight titles but the judging and refereeing during the fight (which included 2 point deductions from Khan) was regarded by many as highly questionable. Peterson was stripped of the WBA Super light welterweight title shortly before a scheduled May 2012 rematch with Khan due to testing positive for synthetic testosterone - which cast doubt on his performance in the first fight with Khan. Other than Khan, Peterson's best win was an 8th round TKO of former world champion Kendall Holt.      
• Questionable defense and chin. Peterson has been knocked down 7 times in his last 4 fights vs. high-profile opponents (knocked down three times in his 3rd round TKO loss vs. Matthysse, once vs. Khan, twice vs. Ortiz, and even once vs. Bradley - who is notorious for his lack of punching power). At times can be easy to hit; sometimes drops his hands during exchanges, which could leave him wide open for Garcia's vicious left hook.
• Peterson has a tendency to start fights slowly while adjusting to his opponent; Peterson can get away with slow starts vs. lesser opponents but against a higher-level opponent like Garcia the first few rounds could be the difference in the fight. 
• Has decent, but not great power, as evidenced by the fact that he's only scored 17 TKO/KO victories in 36 professional fights (47.2% KO ratio). Garcia has an excellent chin so if Peterson is going to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision.

Prefight Summary

To be honest, Peterson is probably the better boxer in this matchup. He has more experience, is more technically skilled, and will be the (slightly) bigger man coming into the fight. Peterson's reach advantage combined with his potent jab, speed, and footwork should pose major problems for Garcia, especially if Peterson stays outside and fights the patient, smart fight he's capable of fighting. Garcia has been outboxed in stretches numerous times in the past vs. opponents of Peterson's caliber (or even a bit worse) and has shown a particular susceptibility to jabs in a recent, hugely controversial split decision victory vs. Herrera (most felt he lost that fight), a fighter not as well regarded as Peterson.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Peterson, currently listed as an over 3-1 underdog, score the upset victory in a fight I'd grade him as having a 35-40% chance to win - especially if he can get through the early rounds as he tends to fight better in later rounds as he adjusts to his opponents.

But I see the combination of Garcia's sneaky power and Peterson's shaky chin being the difference in this fight. I believe Garcia, who is a patient, very solid all-around boxer in his own right, will eventually catch Peterson with his patented combinations and left hooks. Unlike Herrera, who has an excellent chin (as evidenced by the fact that he's never been knocked down or knocked out in his career), Garcia's power will affect Peterson's ability to execute his attack... especially given that Peterson is prone to applying pressure to his opponents, which should set up spots for clean counterpunching from Garcia. This, combined with the fact that Peterson is a slow starter to begin with and the fact that Garcia has time and again stepped up big in high-profile fights, compels me to give the edge to Garcia. But given Peterson's solid foot movement and the fact that Garcia isn't an overly aggressive power puncher I think it's more likely Garcia wins the fight by decision rather than by TKO/KO.

If I was betting this fight, I'd take the bet on Garcia to win by decision but the odds on Peterson to win by decision (+480 on 5 Dimes) are so attractive that I'd strongly recommend placing a smaller amount on Peterson by decision as a hedge play. Would even consider Peterson by decision as the primary play, given that +480 is an excellent price for a fighter I'd grade as having a 35-40% chance to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Garcia by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Peterson by decision (+480)] 

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Broner vs. Molina: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (29-1, 22 KOs) vs. John Molina Jr. (27-5, 22 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Broner -650, Molina +535 (5 Dimes, 3/7/15)
Purse: Broner: $1.25 million, Molina: $450,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: #7 ranked welterweight, Molina: Not ranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Molina: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd


Positives for Broner
Negatives for Broner
Positives for Molina
Negatives for Molina
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Broner

• Former 3-time world champion in three different weight divisions (super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). At 23 years old, was the youngest boxer in history to be a world champion in three different divisions when he won the WBA welterweight championship vs. Paulie Malignaggi in 2013. Has been ranked as high as #6 in the Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound rankings. A top-level talent with the potential for a hall-of-fame career.
• 25-year old fighter in the prime of his career with excellent agility and hand speed combined with very good power. Slick, skilled technician who is adept with both counter punching and come-forward aggression. Good at cutting off the ring vs. opponents.
• Has a 29-1 record, with his lone loss being a December 2013 unanimous decision loss to Marcos Maidana. Has defeated former world champions such as Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Antonio DeMarco, and Gavin Rees - all tougher and more skilled opponents than Molina. In defeating DeMarco, defeated the then #1 lightweight contender who had beat Molina by 1st round TKO a couple months earlier in September 2012.
• Is low-volume at times, but is a very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands (22 of his 29 wins have come by KO.) Has an effective jab and is a very good combination puncher.
• Despite his showing vs. Maidana, has overall solid defensive skills. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Slips and rolls punches fairly well in the pocket and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. 
• Very good at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
• Is by far the superior athlete in this fight with superior technical skills and boxing IQ. Has the ability to make technical adjustments in the ring over the course of a fight. Precise puncher with much quicker reflexes than Molina so should be able to consistently beat Molina to the punch.
• Although he has frequently displayed immature antics both inside and outside the ring, Broner appears to have matured and noticeably toned down his antics in recent months.

Negatives for Broner

•  Has been exposed as a possibly overrated boxer in recent fights. Although he's beaten multiple former world champions, Broner may not be ready to contend vs. true top-level competition. In Broner's toughest test, he was decisively beaten (including getting knocked down twice) by Marcos Maidana, a pressure fighter with very good power but somewhat limited boxing skill relative to Broner. Molina is also a pressure fighter with very good power and limited boxing skill; if Broner doesn't use his feet he could get caught the same way he was caught multiple times vs. Maidana. In addition to the Maidana loss was unimpressive in both his May 2014 unanimous decision victory vs. Carlos Molina (where a knockout was expected) and his surprisingly close (though entertaining) unanimous decision victory vs. Emmanuel Taylor last September.    
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (Given his issues with fitness and making weight, Broner's low volume may be indicative of a stamina problem.) In five of Broner's last six fights, Broner has fallen behind in early rounds - even against clearly inferior competition.
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's resulting lack of mobility makes it easier for opponents to exert pressure and land scoring punches against him, even if those punches aren't landing cleanly.  
• Broner has fairly good defensive skills, but his defense does contain flaws, as clearly seen in his loss vs. Maidana. Broner is flat-footed and prefers to block punches with his hands and high guard rather than utilize foot movement. Broner's somewhat stationary defensive style provided ample opportunity for a power puncher like Maidana (and perhaps a power puncher like Molina in tonight's fight) to tee off and land big shots. Molina was able to catch heavily favored and previously undefeated fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey - both of whom are more mobile than Broner - late in fights to win by TKO/KO so could conceivably catch Broner as well. 
• Broner's power at lighter weights hasn't carried up to the junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147) divisions. Broner scored a TKO/KO victory in 22 out of his first 27 fights when fighting below 140 lbs (including a stretch of 16 out of 17 fights by TKO/KO) but has not scored a victory by TKO/KO in any of his last four fights, which have all been fought at 140 or 147. Molina is a big junior welterweight with a good chin, so tough to envision Broner getting the TKO/KO victory here.
• Has shown a lack of discipline in certain aspects of the fight game. Is generally overweight and out-of-shape when not training for fights, which often results in him having trouble making weight. (Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights, including tonight's fight vs. Molina.) He's displayed unprofessional and immature behavior both inside and outside the ring and at times has even ignored his corner's instructions (most notably after falling behind on the scorecards vs. Maidana).  

Positives for Molina

• Former WBC USNBC and WBO NABO lightweight champion. Relatively tall, lanky pressure fighter with very good power in both hands - especially his right hand which has single-handedly earned him late round TKO/KO victories vs. heavily favored opponents who decisively outboxed him in the earlier rounds. 22 out of Molina's 27 wins (including his last 14 wins) have come by TKO/KO. Is a big boxer for 140 lbs and will have a size, height, and reach advantage vs. Broner.
• Patient, low-volume brawler; prefers to block his opponents' punches with his high guard from the inside and counter punch with power shots. Is selective with his punches but has legitimate one-punch KO power. Good body puncher who loops his punches from unpredictable angles. (Broner's lone loss was to Maidana who, like Molina, is a come-forward power punching brawler who can throw punches, in particular the overhand right, from unpredictable angles.)
• Despite having 5 losses on his record (including his last two fights) and having never won a world title, Molina is a respected and feared lighweight due to his punching power. Molina's signature punch is his overhand right, but he also has a devastating left hook. Used his punching power to shock previously undefeated and heavily favored fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey in late rounds, as well as knock down highly regarded lightweight Lucas Matthysse twice in a thrilling fight that won nearly every Fight of the Year award for 2014. 
• Durable fighter with a good chin and very good stamina. One of only five fighters (out of 39) to make either it into the 11th round or last the entire fight vs. Matthysse.
• Determined boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Coming off of two straight losses, will be highly motivated to win this fight and retain his status as a spoiler for top-level opposition. Molina has considered retirement in the recent past and knows that a loss here could be the beginning of the end for his career.

Negatives for Molina

• There is a reason why Molina is not a ranked junior welterweight and has never won a world title. Skillwise, Molina is a limited fighter - a one dimensional brawler with slow reflexes, low boxing IQ, and lack of solid fundamentals likely attributable to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 17. Molina has consistently been outboxed by even decent B-level fighters, with his best wins coming as a result of what could be considered lucky punches in the late rounds of fights his opponents got complacent in due to being way ahead on the scorecards. Broner will be the most skilled and talented fighter Molina has fought in a career where he's already lost decisively to lesser fighters. 
• Has lost four out of his last seven fights, including his last two - all vs. opponents not as skilled as Broner. Molina's lone title fight was a first round TKO loss in September 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, an opponent Broner defeated two months later by 8th round TKO.
• Some will point to Broner's loss to Maidana as a possible blueprint for Molina pulling of the upset vs. Broner. Like Maidana, Molina is also an aggressive power puncher. Molina, however, is a low-volume counter puncher (in contrast to Maidana's high volume, lead puncher style) and is not nearly as skilled as Maidana.
• Molina is a defensively suspect brawler who, due to slow hand speed and reflexes, is generally easy to hit and beat to the punch. Although he's only been a pro for 9 years, at 31 years old Molina has been in some brutal wars (most notably the Matthysse fight) that have likely taken a physical toll on him. 31 isn't necessarily old but the boxing lifespan of a brawler with limited defense is generally much shorter than the lifespan of other boxers. 
• Although Molina has a good chin, he has been stopped twice in the past 2.5 years. The stoppages came at the hands of the two best opponents Molina has fought to date - DeMarco and Matthysse. 

Prefight Summary

John Molina has a puncher's chance in every fight he's in. Despite his limited skill, Molina did find a way to stay very competitive last year in his thriller vs. Lucas Matthysse, one of the most feared power punchers in boxing. He did find a way to beat heavily-favored blue-chip contenders Mickey Bey (the current IBF lightweight champion of the world and considered by many the best fighter under the Mayweather Promotions imprint other than Floyd himself) and Hank Lundy by TKO/KO in the late rounds of fights he was losing decisively. Both Bey and Lundy utilize foot movement more than the relatively flat-footed Broner, who is often content to stay in the pocket within range of his opponent to pick off punches. Broner has quicker reflexes and better defense than Bey or Lundy but if Molina can land the right shot (i.e., land one of his flush overhand rights on Broner), then Molina could be well on his way to replicating Maidana's upset of Broner in 2013 and scoring by far the biggest win of his career on primetime national TV. I actually think Molina would be well served to take risks in this fight with the intent of knocking Broner out; Molina has a good chin and was able to last 11 rounds vs. the most feared puncher at 140 lbs in Matthysse so I'd expect he'll be able to go the distance vs. Broner, whose power hasn't translated nearly as much at 140 lbs as it had in lower weight divisions.

Despite the threat of Molina's power, the disparity in talent, speed, and skill between Broner and Molina is just too much to overlook. Molina has been thoroughly outboxed by much lesser boxers than Broner; I see no reason why - other than a lucky punch from Molina - an A-level talent such as Broner wouldn't be able to dominate Molina the same way solid B-level boxers generally have. Especially with the speed disparity, I don't see a low-volume puncher like Molina catching Broner, even with Broner's flat-footed tendencies. I see Broner easily picking off Molina's shots and countering with precise power shots of his own that, over the course of several rounds, could even result in a surprising stoppage.

But, given Molina's sturdy chin and the fact that Broner's knockout power in lower weight divisions hasn't translated well to higher weights, I like Broner by wide unanimous decision. The only thing preventing Broner from an easy victory here is the same sort of carelessness defensively Molina was able to take advantage of late in his fights vs. Bey and Lundy.

Prediction: Broner by decision 

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Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.