Terence Crawford vs. Jeff Horn: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (32-0, 23 KOs) vs. Jeff Horn (18-0,-1 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: ESPN+
Line: Crawford -570, Horn +480 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purse: Crawford: $3 million, Horn: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, Horn: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Horn: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Can Terence Crawford be the next great American boxing superstar? Crawford - the undefeated, Ring Magazine #3-rated pound-for-pound boxer - is looking to win a world title in his third weight class in his welterweight (147 lb) division debut vs. Jeff Horn, another undefeated fighter who won the WBO welterweight title last July in a highly controversial unanimous decision victory vs. boxing legend Manny Pacquiao.

Of the top-ranked fighters in boxing, there are three who have arguably separated themselves from the rest of the pack to have a reasonable claim as the best fighter in the sport: Gennady Golovkin - who is still undefeated after last year's controversial draw vs. Canelo Alvarez, is coming off a sensational 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan, and is currently on one of the great title defense runs in the history of the middleweight division; Vasyl Lomachenko - who is coming off an impressive TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title (becoming the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win a world title in three divisions); and Crawford, who in his last fight became the first boxer in 13 years to be undisputed champion of the world (i.e., simultaneously hold all four major world titles within a single weight division). Crawford earned his undisputed champion status in the junior welterweight (140 lb) division after defeating previously undefeated Julius Indongo to unify all four titles in the weight class.

Over the past month, both Golovkin and Lomachenko have made their case for #1 fighter in the sport with impressive knockout victories over solid opponents. Crawford is looking to similarly impress and put in his claim as the best boxer pound-for-pound this Saturday in his welterweight debut vs. Horn, a naturally bigger man than Crawford who - as Pacquiao found out in his matchup with Horn last year - is difficult to look impressive against.

On the other side of the ring Horn -  a former school teacher who became a household name overnight in his home country of Australia after his shocking upset of heavy betting favorite Pacquiao - is looking to prove his win over Pacquiao (who came into last July's fight vs. Horn with much more experience at welterweight than Crawford will this Saturday) was no fluke.

Crawford vs. Horn will be the first high-profile boxing match to be televised live on ESPN's new "ESPN Plus" (ESPN+) subscription service. Will Crawford once again live up to the hype - making the biggest weight jump of his career (7 lbs) to win a title in his third weight class and stake his claim as the best fighter in the sport? Or will Jeff Horn - who opened as a 10-1 underdog and is currently graded as nearly a 5-1 underdog for Saturday's fight - shock the world again?

Prefight Analysis

This fight could very easily be tougher for Crawford than most think. Horn is the bigger fighter in this matchup - a fighter who's boxed his entire professional career at welterweight (and is generally considered a big guy within the weight class) while Crawford has fought a large part of his career two full divisions lower at lightweight. It shouldn't be overlooked here that Crawford is making the biggest weight jump of his career Saturday night to fight at welterweight for the first time in his career vs. an undefeated welterweight champion.

As he showed in his upset of Pacquiao, Horn is a tough, durable fighter at welterweight who might be able to impose his size advantage and physicality in the early rounds on a smaller Crawford who sometimes likes to exercise patience (and thus can be a slow starter) early. Horn has an awkward, "herky-jerky" style featuring deceptively quick foot movement and timely pressure that may take even a master of in-fight adjustments like Crawford a few rounds to get acclimated to. Horn also has legitimate power in his right hand that Crawford likely won't be able to just walk through (as he's done with shots from big power punchers at lower weight divisions).

Horn comes into this fight as a substantial underdog but he's is an undefeated world champion who's consistently shown the toughness and resiliency to do what he has to do to get the victory. Crawford - though a bigger-sized guy when he fought in the lightweight and junior welterweight divisions - is the naturally smaller fighter in this welterweight matchup with Horn and will be fighting at welterweight for the very first time in his career. There's a non-negligible chance that - similar to the Pacquiao fight - Horn's size advantage, physicality, and pressure will be a bit more than Crawford bargained for and overcome Crawford's clear skill and talent advantage.  

But I think Horn has way too much to overcome here in this matchup (vs. arguably the best boxer in the world pound-for-pound in Crawford) to pull off the upset - in my opinion, the pick here is Crawford by TKO/KO. Yes, Horn is the bigger, typically more physical fighter and is the only fighter in this matchup with any experience at welterweight. But Crawford has the clear advantage in just about every other facet of the matchup: skills (both offensive and defensive), punch accuracy, speed, quickness, athleticism, reach, power, ring IQ, etc. There are levels to boxing - Crawford has proven multiple times that he's an A-level boxer and is currently in the prime of what will likely be a hall-of-fame career; Horn is at best a B/B+-level fighter whose best win was a highly controversial decision over a past-prime Pacquiao - a fight that most observers felt he lost.

Horn came into last year's fight vs. Pacquiao as nearly a middleweight the day of the fight and was, in many spots, successfully able to impose his size advantage and physicality on the smaller Pacquiao. Despite this, Pacquiao was able to consistently land power shots and visibly bloody Horn to the point where at the end of the 9th round the referee came over to Horn's corner and suggested the fight be stopped. One thing that saved Horn in last year's fight was Pacquiao's cautiousness; since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, Pacquiao has been noticeably less willing to take risks offensively (he hasn't stopped anyone since Marquez knocked him out) and his punch output has declined considerably.

The killer instinct that was a hallmark of prime Pacquiao has all but disappeared in recent years. Prime Crawford still has that killer instinct; you can bet he will be more aggressive in the middle to later rounds than Pacquiao was vs. Horn. Crawford does not have quite the hand speed or quickness of even a past-prime Pacquiao but he is much more accurate and crafty offensively; in the later rounds I anticipate he'll be able to land power punches almost at will vs. a tough, but defensively flawed Horn who will try to apply pressure on Crawford and thus will be open for Crawford's counterpunching. Horn can be elusive on his feet but has a "head-first" come-forward style which likely won't work well for long vs. an accurate power puncher like Crawford who will be looking to time Horn as he jumps inside to attack. Note that Horn has been knocked down in two of his last five fights and in a third fight (the fight vs. Pacquiao last year) came close to being stopped.

An overwhelming majority of the boxing press, ringside observers, and general public felt Horn lost last year in a fight vs. a past-prime, smaller fighter with declining skills in Pacquiao. In my opinion, it's highly likely he'll take a worse beating vs. a much younger, prime Crawford who has superior technical skills to Pacquiao and is eager to make his case as possibly the best boxer in the world so will actively look to be much more aggressive than Pacquiao was last year.

It's important to note that Horn got the controversial decision over Pacquiao in the city (and country) where he was born and raised (Brisbane, Australia). Saturday night he'll be fighting in Crawford's home country in front of mostly Crawford fans who - as proven in previous Crawford fights in New York City and Las Vegas - travel as well as fans of any current American fighter. I see Horn putting up a spirited effort and making the fight competitive in the early rounds before the talent and skill gap becomes apparent, leading to Crawford dominating the fight in the middle and late rounds.

I don't anticipate too much suspense in this fight but it'll be intriguing to see how Crawford performs in his welterweight debut so we can maybe better gauge how he might perform in possible superfights down the road vs. top welterweights like Errol Spence, Keith Thurman, and Danny Garcia. Or maybe Horn will show tonight that he's a top welterweight we've all been sleeping on???


Prediction: Crawford by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Crawford by TKO/KO/DQ (1 unit)

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Crawford vs. Postol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) vs. Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: July 23, 2016
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and WBO Super Lightweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Crawford -570, Postol +480 (5 Dimes, 7/23/16)
Purse: Crawford: $1.3 million, Postol: $675,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #6 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked junior welterweight, Postol: #1 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Postol: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

Terence Crawford is being promoted as potentially the next great American boxing superstar; this fight will go a long way towards answering whether he can achieve that potential. Saturday night's fight is the PPV debut for both Crawford and Postol. Both are undefeated with identical 28-0 records and are universally recognized as the top two fighters at 140 lbs. The winner of this fight will likely be the favorite as the next opponent for Manny Pacquiao, whose promoter Bob Arum (who happens to also be the promoter for both Crawford and Postol) has already reserved the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas for a PPV fight in November (though the fact that Postol and Pacquiao have the same trainer in Freddie Roach complicates things in terms of a possible Pacquiao/Postol matchup). The winner of this fight will not only be the WBC and WBO super lightweight champion, but will also be the lineal super lightweight champion (as Danny Garcia vacated that title to move up to the welterweight division.

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year - an up and coming potential superstar in Crawford who is already rated one of the best boxers in the world pound-for-pound vs. an arguably equally skilled but much lesser known fighter in Postol. Crawford is athletically superior in terms of speed, quickness, and power but Postol moves very well on his feet, has the clear reach advantage, and is generally more active in terms of punches thrown. The winner of this fight will be firmly established as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world and sit on the cusp of boxing superstardom, pending the potential fight with Pacquiao this fall.

Why Terence Crawford will win

Despite both fighters being undefeated and head and shoulders above the rest in the 140 lb division, Crawford is a wide 6-1 favorite for multiple reasons. Crawford is the athletically superior fighter, possessing better power, speed, and quickness than Postol (though Crawford's advantages here are perhaps not as wide as some think). Crawford is a two-division (former lightweight and current super lightweight) world champion and the more proven fighter, having beaten former world champions and top contenders such as Yuriokis Gamboa, Ricky Burns, Raymundo Beltran, Thomas Dulorme, Dierry Jean, and Hank Lundy. (Postol by comparison has fought only two opponents ranked in the top 20 within his division - Lucas Matthysse and Hank Lundy.)

Crawford's versatility - most notably his ability to fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance at an elite level - will likely pose problems for Postol whose defense can be a bit careless in spots... in particular the way he shoots his jab while moving to the right, which sometimes leaves him susceptible to right-hand counters. Crawford is an accurate counter puncher with power in both hands and is outstanding at making mid-round adjustments; one should expect he'll eventually have success penetrating Postol's defense despite Postol's constant foot movement and reach advantage.

Given Postol's lack of top-level experience, there is a reasonable chance he's overrated despite being undefeated and the #2-ranked fighter in the division. Crawford is a (huge) step up for him and is by far the most talented and skilled boxer he's fought in his professional career. Postol has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career (even vs. highly feared power puncher Matthysse where he displayed a solid combination of good chin and elusiveness defensively) but if Postol's undefeated record is more a case of him looking better than we thought he was vs. B- and C-level fighters, Crawford's power and skills (which are generally regarded as A-level) will likely expose Postol fairly quickly.  

At 5'11", Postol has a 3" height advantage in this fight and fights tall but that may work against him as Postol's relatively tall frame may prove to be an easy target for an accurate puncher like Crawford.

Postol has displayed surprisingly good power in his three fights under Freddie Roach but Crawford, like Postol, has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown an excellent chin in some of his more high profile fights (in particular vs. power puncher Gamboa) so one shouldn't expect a fighter with a 43% KO percentage in Postol to stop Crawford (or pose any sort of threat in terms of punching power for that matter).

Crawford is from Omaha, Nebraska and tonight's fight is in Las Vegas but Crawford's Omaha fanbase travels very well (Crawford's fight this past February in New York City sold out largely due to Crawford's fanbase) and the fact that Crawford is American should render Crawford the strong crowd favorite at the MGM Grand, which should provide motivation for Crawford inside the ring and could influence the judges' scoring outside of it. Crawford has been promoted as the A-side for this PPV event and - for numerous reasons - boxing politics would strongly prefer a Crawford vs. Pacquiao rather than Postol vs. Pacquiao matchup later this fall. If the fight is close one should expect the judging to favor the the fighter being promoted as a future superstar over the lesser known Ukrainian - even if Postol slightly outboxes him.

Why Viktor Postol will win

Postol comes into this fight as a significant underdog but - like Crawford - is an undefeated world champion in the 140 lb division. While not quite as athletic as Crawford, Postol - in my opinion - is on Crawford's level in terms of skill and boxing IQ. (In the effort to promote Crawford as a future superstar I do think Crawford's skills have been a bit overrated by numerous boxing outlets, most notably HBO Sports.)

Postol is a relatively tall (5'11"), lengthy (73.5" reach) fighter who is adept at working behind his long jab to set up combination punches from distance. With a long 70" reach, Crawford is a fighter who typically enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents, which he's often used behind the jab as a timing mechanism; Saturday night will be a rare instance where Crawford will not have a reach advantage (and on the contrary will actually have a clear disadvantage in reach).

As a combination puncher, Postol is a high punch volume fighter who moves very well on his feet. Crawford - especially in the early rounds - is typically a patient, cautious fighter who likely won't match Postol's work rate. Crawford is notorious for being a slow starter; in recent fights he lost the 1st round to Ricky Burns, lost 3 or 4 of the first 4 rounds to Gamboa, was trailing most of the 1st round vs. Beltran before rallying late to take the round, lost the 1st round vs. Dulorme, was losing the 1st round vs. Jean before scoring a knockout late in the round, and lost the 1st round vs. Lundy. Against a highly skilled, elusive fighter with a high work rate and considerable reach advantage like Postol, I actually expect Crawford to be trailing after the early rounds while trying to figure out how to break down Postol's relatively unusual combination of height, reach, high punch volume, and mobility. Given Postol's ability to fight off his back foot, there is a good chance that much of this fight is fought from the outside - where Postol likely has an advantage with his reach and work rate.
Three years ago, Crawford fought Prescott, a talented fighter with a height (5'11") and reach (72") similar to Postol's in a fight that Crawford dominated... but Prescott did not have the combination punching skills or work rate that Postol has.

Crawford has made a career recently of fighting talented, but undersized opponents; Crawford's last two opponents - Lundy and Jean - both were fighting at lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up in weight to fight Crawford. Both Gamboa and Burns were noticeably smaller than Crawford when Crawford fought them at lightweight. (Gamboa had actually been a featherweight - two divisions below lightweight - for most of his career but was still able to give Crawford a lot of problems in the early rounds of their fight.) Postol is a natural 140 lb fighter and is actually naturally bigger than Crawford. This will be the first fight of Crawford's career vs. a world-class opponent of his own size; Crawford may not be able to overpower Postol like he has many of the smaller fighters he's faced in recent fights.

Crawford slips punches well but at times gets careless and is more than willing to take punches to set up his own attack. (Gamboa in particular tagged Crawford quite a bit in the early rounds of their fight and tested his chin early.) Crawford has heart and a lot of street fight in him but that may work to his disadvantage vs. Postol's combination of intelligent movement. reach advantage, volume, and ability to box on his feet from distance. I would not be surprised if Postol is able to neutralize Crawford's strong jab game with his longer jab and movement, which may frustrate Crawford and lead to countering opportunities for Postol from distance as Crawford increases his aggressiveness in the middle and late rounds. Note also that Postol is proven to have a solid chin, having never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, including his most recent fight vs. one of the most feared punchers in the sport in Matthysse, who's had 34 of his 37 wins come by KO. Crawford is certainly more skilled than Matthysse, but does not have Matthysse's power and is not a particularly busy fighter so it is tough for me to envision Crawford winning this fight by stoppage given Postol's strong chin and elusive style.  Note that in training under Freddie Roach, Postol has had a lot of experience sparring vs. Manny Pacquiao, who has more power, speed, and arguably more skill than even Crawford.

With a career 43% KO percentage, Postol is hardly a feared power puncher but in his last three fights under Freddie Roach, Postol has been much more effective with his power, winning 2 or his last 3 fights by KO (vs. arguably the two toughest opponents of his career to date in Matthysse and Aydin). Postol is not a one-punch power puncher but is effective in wearing down his opponents with volume; I don't see Postol stopping Crawford but do think Postol has enough sneaky power to heavily frustrate Crawford if he stays busy and keeps Crawford at a distance with movement.

With his somewhat rare combination of height, reach, high-level skills, punch volume, and savvy ring movement, Postol has an unorthodox style that is difficult to prepare for and defend against. If Crawford is even slightly overrated - which I believe he is - Postol's style will expose Crawford fairly quickly and this will be a much, much closer fight than expected.

Prefight Analysis

I think Crawford is the better fighter overall and will probably win this fight. He is the more athletic, experienced fighter with advantages in versatility, power, and speed; as the fighter being heavily promoted by politically powerful boxing entities such as HBO Sports, Top Rank, etc. as a future superstar and with a potential Pacquiao/Crawford PPV megafight looming for early November, Crawford will likely win this fight on the judges' scorecards, even in the event of a close fight where Postol slightly outboxes him. Given how well Crawford's core fan base from Omaha travels and the fact that he is the American in this matchup with an entertaining, fan-friendly style, Crawford will also have the advantage of fighting in front of what should be an overwhelmingly pro-Crawford crowd in Las Vegas.

But even with these advantages (most notably the boxing politics, which in theory shouldn't be a factor but realistically has a good chance to be), I still give Postol a very realistic chance to win this fight. While I think Crawford is a fun to watch, highly skilled boxer, I think he's been a bit overrated in HBO's (in my view somewhat desperate) effort to find the next great American boxing superstar (and a superstar who can eventually replace Pacquiao as the network's next PPV cash cow). While not as athletic, I do believe Postol to be on Crawford's level in terms of skill and believe he has a difficult-to-solve combination of height, reach advantage, intelligent ring movement, and strong chin to highly frustrate even the usually unflappable Crawford.

The typically fast starting Postol will likely outwork the typically cautious, slow starting Crawford in the early rounds but I think Postol has the chin, stamina, and overall skills to win enough of the middle and late rounds to potentially steal a decision from the heavily favored Crawford. I think Crawford actually wins this matchup 65-75% of the time, but even at that win rate the nearly 5-1 odds you can get on Postol to win the fight (or better yet, the up to 7-1 odds for Postol to win the fight by decision) makes betting on Postol to win a very solid value bet.

While I think Postol by decision at 6.5-1 or 7-1 is a slightly stronger bet than Postol simply to win at nearly 5-1, 5-1 is high enough odds worth taking to mitigate the risk of a shocking stoppage of Crawford by the Ukrainian (which I don't see happening but, as he showed in his last fight vs. Matthysse, Postol is capable of wearing his opponents down with volume and has enough sneaky power in his right hand to catch a fatigued opponent late).

Postol is the best fighter Crawford has ever faced and is the first top-level fighter Crawford has fought that isn't undersized (and is actually naturally bigger than he is). Given his 3.5" reach advantage and own effective jab, Postol is perhaps the only fighter  at 140 lbs that can neutralize Crawford's typically highly effective jab game; if Postol keeps the fight at a distance and off the ropes with his reach advantage, he has a chance to come away with a decision on points by outworking Crawford with high punch volume.

Regardless of who wins this matchup, the chins on both fighters (neither Crawford or Postol have been stopped or knocked down in their professional careers, even though both have fought fighters with more power than what they're each facing tonight) are so solid that I think it's highly likely that this fight goes 12 rounds, making a bet on the fight to go 12 rounds at -160 odds perhaps the strongest bet. Even if Crawford performs better than I expect and is able to dominate and overwhelm Postol in the middle and late rounds, I still think Postol's foot movement, excellent chin, and ability to jab from distance will get him through 12 rounds without being stopped. As unflappable as Crawford typically is, Postol has displayed a similar lack of fluster under pressure (see rounds 6 and 7 of his fight with Matthysse).

Looking forward to this fight - very intriguing matchup that has potentially a myriad of ways to unfold!

Prediction: Crawford to win

Recommended bets: 1) Crawford/Postol goes full 12 rounds (1 unit)

2) Postol to win by decision (.5 unit)

3) Postol to win (.5 unit)

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