Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. 

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace. 

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

 How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.) 

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above.  All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit) 

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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