Lomachenko vs. Pedraza: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (11-1, 9 KOs) vs. Jose Pedraza (25-1, 12 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 8, 2018
Weight class: Lightweight (135 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World and WBA Super World lightweight titles
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -3700, Pedraza: +2600 (5 Dimes, 12/7/18)
Purse: Lomachenko: $1 million, Pedraza: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine lightweight champion, Pedraza: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Pedraza: Orthodox
Referee: Harvey Dock

Why you should watch this fight

Despite recent impressive wins by Canelo Alvarez and Oleksandr Usyk that moved them up the pound-for-pound rankings, the two fighters most frequently touted as pound-for-pound the best fighters in the sport of boxing are Vasyl Lomachenko and Terence Crawford. Crawford, an undefeated welterweight who - like Lomachenko is promoted by Bob Arum's Top Rank Boxing promotional company - staked his claim this past October as the top boxer in the sport with an impressive 12th-round TKO victory over a then-undefeated, highly-touted fighter in Jose Benavidez Jr.

Lomachenko - who is currently rated as the #1 fighter in the sport by both Ring Magazine and ESPN - is coming off of one of the better performances of his career this past May with a 10th round TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title, making him the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win major titles in three weight classes (doing so after only 12 professional fights). Lomachenko is looking to top Crawford's performance this past October Saturday night in a unification title fight vs. WBO lightweight champion Jose Pedraza, a Puerto Rican fighter who should have ample crowd support within the confines of Madison Square Garden in New York City - the city with the largest population of Puerto Ricans in the world.

Pedraza - who represented Puerto Rico as a lightweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing - is a crafty, defensively-solid fighter who moves well on his feet and can fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance. Pedraza doesn't quite have the technical skills or power of Lomachenko's previous opponent (Linares) but he will enjoy a 5.5" reach advantage coming into Saturday night's fight and is a more natural lightweight than Lomachenko, who will be fighting at lightweight for just the second time in his professional career. Pedraza was stopped nearly two years ago in his final fight as a super featherweight (130 lbs) by a 22-year old Gervonta Davis - in what has been the only loss of his career - but has won three straight unanimous decision since then after moving up to lightweight, including a unanimous decision over Raymundo Beltran in his last fight for the WBO lightweight title.

Lomachenko, a two-time Olympic gold medalist who has arguably had the greatest amateur career in the history of boxing (highlighted by those two Olympic gold medals and a career amateur record of 396-1), is a historically great talent who - after only 12 professional fights - is already a lock for the hall-of-fame. The question now is whether he will continue to live up to the hype as possibly the best fighter in the sport today - and possibly the best fighter of the post-Mayweather era. Lomachenko has won his last eight fights by stoppage; Saturday night's fight vs. a lightweight champion in Pedraza -who has been stopped in the past by a possible future Lomachenko opponent in Gervonta Davis - will be the latest gauge of Lomachenko's greatness.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight doesn't require much extended analysis. Lomachenko is (by far) the heaviest favorite I've done a prediction for (a 1-37 favorite at the time of this writing), so there should be no surprise that I'm taking him to win (and win convincingly).

I mean there's probably at least some value in taking a one-loss champion with very solid, world-class skills in Pedraza at massive 26-1 odds. Pedraza will actually come into tomorrow night's fight with some of the same qualities Tyson Fury possessed in last week's classic heavyweight title fight with Deontay Wilder (which most felt Fury won as an underdog). Like Fury, Pedraza is essentially an ambidextrous boxer who can frustrate any opponent by giving different looks from both the orthodox and southpaw stances. Like Fury, Pedraza is an at times awkward fighter adept at throwing punches from unorthodox angles. Like Fury, Pedraza comes into this fight with a reach advantage (a significant 5.5" reach advantage over Lomachenko in tomorrow night's fight) and moves very well on his feet, which should give Pedraza some ability to elude Lomachenko's attack (as prodigious as his attack may be) from distance. And like Fury, Pedraza is the slightly taller, naturally bigger fighter so might be able to use his size advantage combined with quick hand speed to make the fight physically difficult for Lomachenko on the inside.

Pedraza - as he showed in his most recent fight vs. Beltran and even in the only loss of his career vs. Davis - is a very tough fighter who I think could give Lomachenko problems for a few rounds with his versatility, movement, and ability to throw punches from unpredictable angles (and in this fight potentially throw those punches from distance given his significant reach advantage). It's also essential to point out that tomorrow night's fight will be Lomachenko's first fight after a shoulder surgery in late May to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. (Lomachenko injured the shoulder in the second round of his last fight vs. Linares which affected his performance throughout the rest of the fight.)

But unless Lomachenko suffers another freak injury - as with every fighter Lomachenko has faced since his 2014 loss to Orlando Salido in only his second fight as a pro - the talent gap between Lomachenko and Pedraza will be too much for Pedraza to overcome. Despite his savvy and legitimate world-class skills, the rub with Pedraza is that he doesn't have the punching power or athleticism Linares did in his fight with Lomachenko (which was very competitive) to keep Lomachenko honest and ward off his attack into the middle and late rounds.

I think as the fight progresses, Lomachenko will get to a point where he is able to stalk and apply effective pressure at will, eventually figuring out the timing on the at-times elusive and tricky Puerto Rican for a late stoppage victory. Pedraza is a tough, crafty, two-time world champion who will have some decent crowd support from what should be a decent-sized Puerto Rican contingent at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night. I expect him to eventually try to stand in close and exchange but Lomachenko is too elusive with his footwork on defense and accurate with his punch combinations offensively; he'll frustrate Pedraza and accumulate enough punches to most likely earn a stoppage in the later rounds, though there is a chance the fight goes the distance for a wide Lomachenko decision if Loma can't get the stoppage late.

Pedraza is a nice B+-level fighter and a worthy world champion but will be overmatched by Lomachenko's A+-level footwork and overall skills (as all recent Lomachenko opponents have been). Barring another injury, tomorrow night should be yet another dominant performance by Lomachenko in his quest to go down as one of the all-time greats in this history of the sport.

Prediction: Lomachenko by TKO/KO 

Recommended bet: Lomachenko by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Garcia vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (31-0, 18 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (33-3-1, 18 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: January 23, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Welterweight title (recently vacated by Floyd Mayweather Jr.)
TV: Fox
Line: Garcia -1000, Guerrero +800 (5 Dimes, 1/23/16)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #8 ranked welterweight; was Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion prior to moving up to welterweight, Guerrero: Not ranked (#6 ranked welterweight by WBC)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Jack Reiss

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Garcia opened in late December of last year as a solid -825 favorite, with Guerrero as a 4.75-1 (+475) underdog. Betting has fluctuated since then but for the most part has been with the younger, undefeated Garcia, who is currently a -1000 favorite, with Guerrero priced as an 8-1 (+800) underdog.

Why Danny Garcia will win

On paper this could be an easy fight for Garcia. He is an undefeated former junior welterweight champion with power and is in the prime of his career facing an older, very battle worn fighter in Guerrero - who is just 2-2 in his last four fights. Each of Guerrero's last three fights have been wars and he was knocked down in the most recent two of those fights (vs. Aaron Martinez and Keith Thurman). 

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who should be able to capitalize on the fact that Guerrero's reflexes and defensive skills appear to have waned with age and the wear and tear of those recent fights (as evidenced by the fact that Guerrero barely won a split decision as a 40-1 favorite in his last fight vs. Martinez, which included getting knocked down early by an opponent in Martinez who has only won 4 of his 25 career fights by TKO/KO). Garcia has generally had problems with fighters who move well and can box from distance but Guerrero, despite having the ability to box from the outside, is a brawler at heart and will likely stand right in front of Danny for large portions of the fight.

In terms of experience, Garcia has been criticized for title defenses vs. questionable opponents but his overall resume is pretty solid, having beaten quality opponents such as Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Amir Khan, Erik Morales (twice), and Zab Judah. Garcia has actually been an overachiever in his (thus far perfect) career, decisively winning fights even when he came in as a clear underdog (as was the case when he fought Matthysse and Khan, who were among the most feared and avoided fighters in boxing at the times Garcia fought them).

Garcia has never been knocked down or knocked out as a pro so it would be tough to imagine Guerrero - especially at this point of his career - affecting the course of this fight with his power. (Guerrero hasn't knocked down an opponent since his fight vs. Andre Berto in November 2012.)

Guerrero on the other hand has been getting hit often and fairly consistently throughout his recent fights; Garcia is a very good offensive fighter who should be able to land power punches - including his left hook which is considered by many one of the best left hooks in boxing -  with little difficulty. Garcia has knocked down his opponent in six out of his last eight fights (with ten knockdowns in those six fights) so it would not be a surprise to see Danny score knockdowns vs. Guerrero and possibly even get the stoppage vs. a past prime (and seemingly rapidly fading) Guerrero.

Why Robert Guerrero will win

Yeah he's a sizable underdog, but we can't forget that Guerrero is a former world champion/interim world champion in four weight divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight) and just 2.5 years ago was ranked the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #9 fighter in the world after having gone over seven years without losing a fight. The fact is Guerrero could (and can still) box; from a technical standpoint many would say he actually has better boxing skills than Garcia both from distance and on the inside.   

Guerrero is a crafty, technically skilled southpaw who still poses a challenge even for A-level opponents with his experience, toughness, and versatile inside/outside boxing abilities. The only clear losses in Guerrero's career were against Keith Thurman and recently retired pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. - two A-level fighters who move well; Garcia is not as skilled or mobile as either of the two. Guerrero is the much more experienced inside fighter so could have a tactical advantage in a brawl (and most recent Guerrero fights have devolved into brawls), but Guerrero could also give Garcia problems if he stays on his feet and boxes from the outside, a style which has given Garcia problems in multiple recent fights (including his recent controversial decisions vs. Peterson and Mauricio Herrera).

It's important to note that Guerrero has had six fights over the last three years at welterweight (where he was an interim world welterweight champion), whereas this will only be Garcia's second fight as a true 147-pound welterweight after spending the majority of his pro career at junior welterweight.

A third generation Mexican-American, Guerrero will be fighting tonight in his home state of California and - with the number of Mexican-Americans and Mexicans expected to be in attendance in downtown Los Angeles - he will likely be the strong crowd favorite.

If Guerrero can maintain a high punch output vs. an often patient Garcia and his chin holds up, the opportunity is there for an upset - especially if he can neutralize Garcia's power by staying inside and pushing the fight towards a brawl. This is a winnable fight for Guerrero if he fights with his head and can somehow tap into the energy and determination he fought with in his prime just a few years ago.

Prefight Analysis

If this was a prime Robert Guerrero fighting Danny Garcia I would take Guerrero in this fight without too much thought, even at less favorable odds. Prime Guerrero was an underrated fighter who could outbox you from the outside with his jab, above average reach, and foot movement but was also adept at smothering from close range and outworking his opponents inside. Guerrero is the more experienced welterweight who overall probably still has a higher boxing IQ and slightly better boxing skills than the younger, more athletic Garcia. At his best, Guerrero fights with a relentless determination that would be tough for a typically laid-back fighter like Garcia to match over the course of 12 rounds.

But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.

Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient  guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.

Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.

In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).

Prediction: Garcia by decision (1 unit)

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Cotto vs. Canelo: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 21, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title (if Alvarez wins; Cotto was stripped of title prior to fight)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +275, Alvarez -305 (5 Dimes, 11/21/15)
Purse: Cotto: $15 million, Alvarez: $5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Canelo: #1 ranked junior middleweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Canelo: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Canelo opened in late July as a -245 favorite shortly before the fight was officially announced, with Cotto as a slight +175 underdog. Public betting trended for the next couple of months after that in favor of the younger, bigger Canelo, who peaked as a -350 favorite in early October. Over the past few weeks approaching the fight however, it appears the underdog odds have enticed bettors to wager mostly on the still dangerously powerful Cotto, who has won his last three fights by easy TKO/KO victory since hiring Freddie Roach as trainer; Canelo is currently a -305 favorite, with Cotto as a +275 underdog.

Why Miguel Cotto will win

Despite being 35 years old (10 years older than Canelo), Cotto has looked over the past two years as impressive as he's ever looked in his career - winning his last three fights by wide TKO victories (and arguably not losing a single round in any of those three fights). Since hiring 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach as his trainer, Cotto has clearly regained confidence in his abilities as a top-level boxer and is fighting with a renewed energy.    

Cotto is generally considered the better overall boxer in this matchup, coming into this fight vs. Canelo with advantages in boxing IQ, skill, and speed. Cotto has superior foot movement to the relatively flat-footed Canelo and, especially given his effective use of movement in recent fights under Freddie Roach, is perhaps in a better position to control the tempo of this fight.

As shown in his recent fights, Cotto still has very good power in both hands... power comparable to that of Canelo despite Canelo being 10 years his junior. Cotto's left hook is his signature punch (Cotto's left hook is in fact widely considered one of the best punches in the sport) and he's also a devastating body puncher who throws combinations well. Cotto is a naturally more aggressive fighter than the typically patient, relatively low-output Canelo so do not be surprised if Cotto outworks Canelo in the initial rounds and takes some of the steam out of Canelo's power with early body shots.

Overall Cotto is still one of the best offensive fighters in boxing, having won 33 of his 44 pro fights by TKO/KO - a higher career TKO/KO percentage (75%) than other notable recent power punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Carl Froch, and Canelo himself. Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career but Cotto's brother Jose Miguel almost knocked Canelo out in the first round of their May 2010 fight. Cotto's last six wins have been by TKO/KO.

Cotto's power and advantage in foot speed could pose a problem for a fighter in Canelo who does not move well and deliberately paces himself during fights to conserve energy.

Cotto has the clear advantage in terms of experience. Despite being only 25, Canelo has solid experience but Cotto is perhaps the most experienced active fighter in boxing, having fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez, as well as former world champions Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), Ricardo Mayorga, Joshua Clottey, and Daniel Geale. Last year Cotto upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had only lost one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Three years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave  recently retired pound-for-pound king Mayweather one of the toughest fights in his career.

At the end of the day, Cotto is one of the best boxers of this generation while Canelo is still to an extent young and unproven. Cotto is a future first ballot hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, junior middleweight, and middleweight).

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are solid reasons why Canelo is entering this fight as roughly a -300 favorite.

At only 25 years old, Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; a technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands.

Canelo is a patient, thinking boxer who statistically is one of the top 2-3 efficient boxers in the sport. He's an accurate puncher who lands a very high percentage of power punches and overall punches thrown (to the point where he at one time was ranked #1 by CompuBox in terms of percentage of power punches landed). Canelo is a splendid combination puncher who, while often low-output, tends to land punches cleanly and with power (which often makes an impression on judges in close rounds).

Canelo is a full decade younger than Cotto and is in the prime of his career. Canelo is naturally bigger and stronger than Cotto (likely the strongest fighter Cotto has ever fought in terms of pure physical strength) and has a 3.5" reach advantage on Cotto. (Canelo is generally expected to give up the reach advantage so he can pressure the smaller Cotto inside but the reach should help him neutralize Cotto's speed advantage when he boxes from range.)

Canelo is not the most mobile fighter (actually is relatively flat-footed) but he did have success in spots cutting off the ring vs. highly skilled light middleweight champion Erislandy Lara (who has much better foot movement than Cotto)... so one would expect Canelo would have at least as much success cutting off the ring vs. Cotto, who will not be as elusive as Lara and who has a history of stamina issues in the late rounds.

Although Cotto is the more experienced fighter, the 25-year old Canelo has already amassed a ton of experience, having fought Floyd Mayweather, former lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), future first ballot hall-of-famer Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, and Kermit Cintron.

Due to expected strong Mexican/Mexican-American fan attendance, the crowd at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could have some influence on both the boxers inside the ring and the judging outside the ring. Scoring in close Canelo fights has tended to favor Canelo; even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw. If the fight is close and goes 12 rounds I strongly expect Canelo to be granted the decision.

Canelo is no defensive wizard and - as a pressure fighter with slow foot movement - is certainly susceptible to counterpunching. But Canelo's chin has held up against bigger and stronger fighters than Cotto (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career) and his defense - in particular his upper body defensive movement - has noticeably improved in recent fights.

Cotto has looked extremely impressive in recent fights but who has he really beaten? Last year, Cotto beat a 39-year old fighter in Martinez suffering from a debilitating knee injury (which led to his Martinez's retirement after the fight) and who had been knocked down in each of his three fights prior to the Cotto fight. In June, Cotto defeated a 34-year old middleweight in Geale who looked weight drained and was clearly affected by the 157-pound catchweight. In tonight's fight, Cotto will be fighting a young, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is much better able to adapt to the (155 lb) catchweight.

Prefight Analysis

While this is certainly a competitive fight that could go either way, I'd give a 60/40 edge to Canelo for a few reasons:

For one, Canelo is the (much) younger, bigger, and stronger fighter. In Cotto's previous two fights, he fought a 39-year old, injury plagued fighter in Martinez and a 34-year old, weight drained, unexceptional fighter in Geale. While I'd actually still give Cotto a decent chance to win this fight by stoppage, Cotto is facing a much different animal in a 25-year old, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is perhaps more comfortable at the 155 lb catchweight than Cotto is. Furthermore, Canelo is an aggressive, but cautious fighter who has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown good improvement defensively in recent fights; Cotto likely won't be able to dominate this quality of opponent the same way he ran through Martinez and Geale. While Canelo isn't exactly known for his stamina, he is patient and preserves energy better than Cotto - I'd expect him to have an edge vs. an older, tired Cotto if the fight progresses into the later rounds.

Secondly, due to the expected strong presence of Mexican and Mexican-American fans at the fight, Canelo will essentially be fighting in front of a home crowd. As noted above, there is a chance the partisan crowd influences both the action inside the ring and the judges outside the ring in Canelo's favor. In close 12-round fights in front of pro-Canelo crowds of the past, Canelo has pretty much always benefited from favorable scoring from the judges; if this turns out to be a close, competitive 12-round fight (which is highly possible), I'd expect the decision to favor Canelo even if Cotto slightly outboxes him.

Canelo consistently brings the fight to his opponents and is a highly efficient boxer who throws splendid crowd (and judge) pleasing combinations with power that often land clean... his fan-friendly style is another element that often helps him with judges in close rounds.

Thirdly, Canelo does have experience with fighters having better movement than Cotto (e.g., Lara, Trout, and Mayweather). Although the judges' decisions were debatable, Canelo did have success in stretches pressuring Lara and Trout so I'd expect him to have at least somewhat better success pressuring Cotto - who is older, less mobile, and possesses less stamina than either Lara or Trout did at the time.

Canelo's youth, size, and power advantages - along with his ability to effectively pressure... not to mention the fact that he will be fighting in front of a solidly pro-Canelo crowd... largely explain why he is correctly favored in tonight's matchup.

But despite the fact that I feel Canelo will *probably* win tonight's fight (whether deserved or not), I actually feel the best *value* is betting on +275 underdog Cotto to win the fight. At the end of the day Cotto is just the better boxer who, in my opinion, has a clear advantage in both boxing skill and foot speed (especially foot speed). Cotto fights at both a faster mental and physical pace than the generally patient, low-output, slower Canelo; I think there is enough value not only in Cotto at +275 to win the fight but even Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 where betting on Cotto is the best bet.

I expect Cotto to outbox the slow-starting Canelo in the early rounds with a powerful body attack that will keep the slower Canelo at bay throughout much of the fight. I'd expect Cotto in the opening rounds to be mobile enough to evade Canelo's pressure but fast enough to beat Canelo to the punch during exchanges.

In my opinion, the big question is how well Cotto will perform in the later rounds as he starts to tire... but there is a good chance the typically low-output Canelo - who has stamina issues in his own right - won't be able to put enough clean punches together in the second half of the fight to win enough of the later rounds.

Again, I do like Canelo to probably win this fight due to his significant age and size advantages (which puts him in a good position to wear Cotto down as the fight progresses), as well as the strong home crowd (and perhaps judging) advantage he will have. But Cotto's clear advantages in pure skill, speed, and experience I think make betting on Cotto the best value play given the current odds.

 Regardless of who wins, I'll be at this fight personally and look forward to watching should be a great addition to the classic Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry!!!

Prediction: Cotto to win (1 unit)

[Recommended hedge bet: Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 (.5 unit)]

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Cotto vs. Geale: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (39-4, 32 KOs) vs. Daniel Geale (31-3, 16 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Cotto: -620, Geale: +515 (5 Dimes, 6/6/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion; Geale: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Geale: Orthodox


Positives for Cotto
Negatives for Cotto
Positives for Geale
Negatives for Geale
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Cotto

• Current WBC and Ring Magazine champion in the middleweight (160 lbs) division. Future hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, light middleweight, and middleweight). One of the best boxers of this generation.
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Stocky, physically strong boxer who pressures well to the body; Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in boxing. Has good power in both hands - especially his left - and throws combination punches very well. Has a deceptively powerful, accurate lead jab. Cotto has won 32 of his 43 fights by TKO/KO, a higher career TKO/KO percentage (74.4%) than current notable heavy punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, and Carl Froch. Cotto's last five wins have been by TKO/KO.
• Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from inside if needed. Naturally left-handed fighter who mostly fights from the orthodox position, but is capable at fighting from southpaw stance as needed. (Is adept at adjusting his range and stance based on his opponent.) 
• Technically sound fighter who will possess a speed, skill, and power advantage vs. Geale.
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. In his most recent fight (June 2014), upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Sergio Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had lost only one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Barclays Center as the official kickoff event for National Puerto Rican Day parade week. Cotto is 9-1 when fighting in New York City, including 5-0 the week of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 7-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history. After two consecutive losses in 2012 and contemplating retirement, has rejuvenated his career (and confidence) since hiring Roach with two straight TKO victories and earning his first middleweight championship. 

Negatives for Cotto

• Cotto is 34 years old and hasn't fought in nearly a year; how will the long layoff affect his performance? Although he has resurrected his career  with a couple of nice victories, he's not the elite pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was in his prime. (Cotto's power and speed have declined a bit over the past few years.)
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Cotto often neglects head movement, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. If a rugged, high volume middleweight like Geale has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be much closer than expected.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for only the second time in his career vs. one of the best middleweights in the world in Daniel Geale, who will come into this fight with significant advantages in size, reach, and height. Cotto beat one of the best middleweights in boxing history in his most recent fight vs. Martinez but how good was his win vs. Martinez? At the time, Martinez was a 39-year old fighter well past his prime with a debilitating knee injury that clearly affected his performance (and will lead to a probable retirement in the near future). How will Cotto, who spent the majority of his career at light welterweight (140lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) fare vs. a younger, healthier, more durable opponent who will likely enter the ring at over 170 lbs on fight night? I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotto have problems with Geale's combination of toughness, size, reach, and skill.    
• Cotto is a battle-worn fighter who has been through numerous wars and has at times been tested vs. bigger fighters with good boxing skills. In front of a largely pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden, Cotto lost a clear unanimous decision to Austin Trout in December 2012. He won a close split decision victory vs. Joshua Clottey in June 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. Geale is a bigger, highly-ranked contender that is comparable to Trout and Clottey in both skill and reach advantage.
• Cotto gets cut easily due to the scar tissue above both his eyes. If the larger, high volume puncher Geale stays busy and gets Cotto's face bleeding in the early or mid rounds the blood could certainly negatively affect Cotto's performance (as well as boost Geale's confidence).
• Cotto has shown questionable stamina in the past, having a tendency to tire later in fights - most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. Cotto also noticeably tired in the later rounds in his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, losing all of the later rounds in both fights and getting stopped by Pacquiao in the 12th round of their fight.

Positives for Geale

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight fighter. Three-time former middleweight champion who has been ranked among Ring Magazine's top 5 middleweights since 2010. Solid high-volume, come-forward fighter with good foot movement for his size.  
• Experienced, gritty fighter with an effective jab from range but is also more than willing to stay in the pocket and exchange inside. Throws overhand rights and hooks well behind his jab. Is a good body puncher with solid overall boxing skills. 
• Geale has only lost three times in 34 career fights with two of the losses by highly competitive, controversial split decisions (August 2013 loss to Darren Barker and May 2009 loss to Anthony Mundine). Has fought and beaten solid competition, including a split decision victory vs. then middleweight champion Felix Sturm in Sturm's home country of Germany and a unanimous decision victory in his rematch with Mundine in Mundine's home city of Sydney, Australia. 
• Unlike Cotto, is a true middleweight and will come into this fight as the larger man with a 3" height advantage and 4" reach advantage. May weigh up to 175 lbs on fight night, which will likely give him a 10-15 pound advantage vs. Cotto. Cotto has had trouble in some previous fights vs. larger, longer fighters with good movement (most notably his December 2012 loss vs. Trout). 
• Is a durable fighter with a fairly good chin and pretty good head movement. Geale's only loss by TKO/KO was to Gennady Golovkin, the current Ring Magazine #4 pound-for-pound boxer who holds the highest TKO/KO percentage in middleweight boxing history (90.9%). Despite the TKO/KO loss, Geale exchanged effectively at times and at times made Golovkin miss punches wildly with his movement. Other than the loss to Golovkin, Geale has never come close to being stopped.
• Has good stamina, which could come into play vs. Cotto, who has a history of tiring in later rounds.
• Generally unflappable fighter who has experience beating heavily favored opponents in front of hostile crowds (see his upset victory vs. then middleweight champion Sturm, who had a 14-fight unbeaten streak before losing to Geale). 

Negatives for Geale

• Geale is an over 5-1 underdog for a reason. He is the technically inferior fighter and will also have a power and speed disadvantage vs. Cotto. Geale is coming from another continent to fight in front of a hostile, pro-Cotto fight on the biggest stage of his career vs. the much more experienced Cotto, who is used to the big stage. Cotto lost in December 2012 to a larger, similarly skilled opponent to Geale in Trout but Trout was a southpaw with quicker movement than Geale; it will be tough for Geale to overcome Cotto's speed advantage.  
• Cotto is defensively flawed but Geale is not a big puncher (only 16 wins by TKO/KO in 34 fights) so likely isn't a serious threat to exploit Cotto's flaws and stop or hurt Cotto badly.   
• Despite being a middleweight (160 lbs) title fight, the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs which required Geale, a natural middleweight, to cut more weight than usual - which he reportedly had trouble doing. Athletes (especially boxers who generally have a low body fat percentage to begin with) cutting weight below their natural size often leads to dehydration and muscle loss, which could affect Geale's stamina and overall performance in tonight's fight.  
• Like Cotto, Geale has his share of defensive deficiencies. Often drops his hands and can be slow to put up his guard after throwing punches, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also doesn't protect his body well; Geale is a competent fighter in the pocket but against a great body puncher like Cotto will probably take the worst of exchanges on the inside, where Cotto's shorter height and short punches are actually an advantage vs. a taller boxer like Geale.
• Geale is a durable fighter with an above average chin but he has been knocked down in at least five fights in his career, including twice in last year's TKO loss to Golovkin.

Prefight Summary


If you believe Cotto's surprising TKO victory last year vs. Sergio Martinez was an impressive win vs. a sufficiently able-bodied, top 10 pound-for-pound all-time great middleweight then you have little reason to believe tonight's fight vs. a lesser opponent in Geale will result in anything other than a wide unanimous decision or stoppage for Cotto. Cotto is the more experienced, skilled fighter with the power and speed advantage facing a fighter who - while bigger than he is - doesn't have much punching power and has defensive flaws that will leave him susceptible to Cotto's vicious body attack. While Geale has good movement, he is by nature often more than willing to stay in the pocket and trade punches, which will likely be to his detriment vs. the quicker, more accurate Cotto who is one of the best body punchers in the sport. If you believe this version of Cotto, who has been dominant in his last two fights since switching to trainer Freddie Roach a couple years ago, is a reincarnation of prime Miguel Cotto then there's little reason to think this will be a difficult fight for him,  

But I think Cotto is being overvalued, while Geale is being undervalued coming into this fight. The reality is Cotto is past his prime and coming off a year-long layoff after beating a 39-year old fighter in Martinez who came into the fight with a debilitating knee issue. While Cotto looked good in the fight, it was clear Martinez was severely limited due to the knee injury and even then Cotto was unable to stop Sergio until the 10th round after knocking him down three times way back in the 1st round. Cotto has fought better in his last couple of fights after the consecutive losses to Mayweather and Trout in 2012 (which left him contemplating retirement), but the reality is he does not have the same power or speed at 34 years old that made him an elite fighter in his prime.

Geale is being undervalued largely due to relative lack of name recognition and Golovkin making him look like a journeyman in his dominant 3rd round TKO victory over Geale last year (most thought Geale would put up a better fight), but the reality is Geale has been a highly regarded, top-ranked middleweight for many years. The fight with Golovkin is the only fight of Geale's career where he's been stopped; other than Golovkin, Geale's only other losses were controversial split-decision losses vs. very solid opponents in Anthony Mundine and Darren Barker.

I actually think Geale has a realistic chance to win this fight. He is a tough, savvy veteran with good foot movement who should be able to use his size and reach advantage to frustrate the defensively flawed Cotto in spots. Geale is volume puncher with an effective jab and follows up with punches behind his jab (in particular his overhand right and left hook) well. If Geale can be effective with his punch combinations and cut Cotto early (Cotto has a history of bleeding easily due mostly to the scar tissue above his eyes) the fight could potentially get interesting - especially in the later rounds where Cotto is known to tire. With his reach advantage, volume punching, and movement, Geale has the skills to box with Cotto from range but also has the size and toughness to outmuscle the quicker but smaller Cotto inside.

While I feel this is a winnable fight for Geale, I think Cotto's top-level skill, heavy-handed body punching, and speed will be too much for Geale, whose (lack of) power poses little threat as a counter for Cotto's attack. Despite Geale's reach advantage and ability to move on his feet, Cotto is faster and should be able to get inside on Geale to land the effective shots necessary to earn a competitive but clear decision victory in front of what will be a Cotto-friendly crowd at Barclays. Cotto's last five victories have actually come via TKO but Cotto, especially at this stage of his career, is no Golovkin - I don't see him knocking out a true middleweight (who will likely outweight him by 10-15 lbs by the time of the fight) who is durable and moves as well as Geale.

With this said, I do think Geale's size, movement, and reach make the current 7-1 odds for Geale to win the fight by 12-round decision a good value bet so I strongly recommend this play as a smaller hedge with Cotto by 12-round decision at 1.4-1 odds as the primary bet (both bets are available at 5 Dimes). For example if risking $100 on Cotto to win the by decision, I would hedge the play with a $10-15 bet on Geale to win by decision at 7-1 to cover any potential losses from the Cotto bet.

Either way I think this will be a good fight that will go the distance so a simpler, less risky alternative play would be to bet that the fight goes the distance (currently -120 at 5 Dimes).

Final thought is to be aware that two key questions make this fight somewhat risky to bet: 1) How will a 34-year old Cotto perform after a one-year layoff from fighting? and 2) How will the 157 lb catchweight affect Geale, who apparently struggled to make weight and hasn't fought below 160 lbs in years?

Prediction: Cotto by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Geale by decision (+714)]

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Cotto vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Miguel Cotto (38-4-0, 31 KOs) vs. Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: June 7, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +188, Martinez -205 (5 Dimes, 6/6/14)
Purse: Cotto: $3 million (guaranteed $7 million after TV revenues),  Martinez: $1.5 million (guaranteed more in TV revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto - #3 ranked junior middleweight, Martinez - #7 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine middleweight champion)
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Martinez: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Positives for Cotto

• Current Ring Magazine #3 ranked junior middleweight. Future hall-of-famer who has won major world titles in three different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, and light middleweight).
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in the boxing. Has good power in his left hand and throws combination punches very well. Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from the inside if needed.  
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Shane Mosley as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden the day before the National Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is 7-1 when fighting at Madison Square Garden, including 4-0 the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 6-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history.
• In terms of common opponents, Cotto has beaten Antonio Margarito - one of only two boxers who has beaten Martinez.

Negatives for Cotto

• Although six years younger than Martinez, Cotto is 33 years old and is not as good of a fighter as he was in his prime. Although he's rebounded a bit since then, Cotto has not appeared to be the elite fighter he once was since his TKO loss to Margarito in 2008.
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. The top southpaws Cotto has faced - Pacquiao, Zab Judah, and Austin Trout - landed over 50% of their combined power punches vs. Cotto. If a middleweight with power like Martinez has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be over quickly.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for the first time vs. one of the best middleweights of this generation (and probably one of the best in history) in Sergio Martinez, who has natural advantages in size, speed, reach, height, and possibly power. Cotto fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) for the majority of his career; will his power stay with him as he moves up to middleweight?   
• Although Cotto has consistently taken on very tough opponents, he has not had a win vs. a top fighter in his prime since his close split decision victory vs. Clottey in 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. 
• Cotto has questionable stamina; he has shown a tendency to tire later in fights, most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. 
• Cotto is a left-hand dominant boxer; he has very good power in his left hand but his right hand is generally not considered much of a threat in comparison. 
• Cotto has had troubles with the previous top southpaws he's faced (losses to both Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao, as well as troubles in some rounds of his win in 2007 vs. Zab Judah).

Positives for Martinez

• Current Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound fighter and top-ranked middleweight. Although he has not received the glory and publicity of other top ranked fighters, Martinez is a future hall-of-famer who will go down as one of the best middleweights of this generation. 
• At 39 years old, is still a freakishly athletic, mobile, high IQ boxer who can outbox or outpunch his opponents with a wide variety of techniques. Martinez moves around the ring as well as anyone in the sport and fights very well on both his front foot (when coming forward) and back foot (while moving backwards). 
• Martinez has lost only twice in his career - a close majority decision loss 4.5 years ago to former middleweight champion Paul Williams and a TKO loss 14 years ago to Antonio Margarito. Overall Martinez has won his last seven fights.
• Is highly adept at potshotting his opponents with the jab, while using his legs and reach advantage to stay out of range vs. counter attacks. (Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed.) 
• Martinez has highly deceptive, brutal punching power in both hands; one-punch knockout power which he has used to KO former titleholders Paul Williams, Darren Barker, and Serhiy Dzinziruk for the first time in their careers. Martinez has knocked out bigger boxers than Cotto in his career (including the aforementioned three) so certainly a possibility Martinez could stop Cotto, who has been stopped twice before in his career.     
• Martinez has excellent hand speed, which is the main reason he is one of the best combination punchers in the sport. Martinez should be able to beat Cotto to the punch consistently.
• Martinez generally outworks his opponents in terms of punches thrown; would expect Martinez to throw more punches than Cotto, especially if the fight gets to later rounds when Cotto tends to tire a bit. Martinez attacks to the body very well, which will likely further compromise Cotto's stamina as the fight goes on. 
• A former cyclist, Martinez has excellent stamina which allows him to maintain his mobility and perform well in later rounds.  
• Fight will be fought at a catchweight (159 lbs), just below the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. Martinez is the naturally bigger, stronger fighter compared to Cotto and will be fighting at a weight where he has been one of the greats of his generation; whereas Cotto will be moving up in weight to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career. 
• Martinez is an experienced boxer who has fought a solid list of former world champions including Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, Antonio Margarito, Darren Barker, Serhiy Dzinziruk, and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, compiling a record of 5-1-1 vs. these opponents.
• Martinez will be the heavier, taller, longer, faster, and quicker fighter and arguably more powerful puncher coming into the fight vs. Cotto. (These attributes will be difficult for Cotto to overcome.)
• Martinez is a determined fighter coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Despite being a current middleweight champion and pound-for-pound one of the best boxers in the sport, he feels disrespected by being referred to as the "B" side fighter in the upcoming match vs. the "A" side Cotto.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez has been (and still is) one of the best boxers in the world but is 39 years old and well past his prime. It is inevitable that Martinez's age will catch-up with him; will this be the fight where Martinez shows his age?
• Martinez has sustained a variety of injuries during fights over the past couple of years; Martinez tore ligaments in his right knee and broke his left hand in his fight vs. Julio Cesar Chavez in September 2012 and then re-injured the right knee and broke his left hand again in his most recent fight vs. Martin Murray. (Both knee injuries required surgery.) Martinez also suffered a left shoulder injury in the fight vs. Murray. Given his age and the fact that he relies on mobility and power punching to box, there is a decent possibility Martinez suffers another injury in the fight vs. Cotto. Will another injury affect the outcome of the fight? How well will Martinez's right knee and left hand hold up vs. Cotto, who will likely try to pressure Sergio and make the fight physical?
• Due to his aforementioned injury problems, Martinez has been relatively inactive over the past couple of years. Martinez hasn't fought in over a year (April 2013) and has only fought twice in the past two years. Ring rust may be an issue; how good will a 39-year old Martinez look after a layoff of over a year?  
• Martinez has shown vulnerability in recent fights. Despite fighting in his home country vs. a huge underdog, Martinez looked unimpressive in a close decision victory vs. Martin Murray, even getting knocked down in the 8th round. Martinez has been knocked down in each of his past three fights (vs. Murray, Chavez Jr., and Dzinziruk) so is certainly susceptible to being knocked down vs. a power puncher like Cotto.
• Martinez is outstanding at using his legs and reach to elude his opponents' attacks but defensively he's a fundamentally flawed fighter. Martinez fights with his hands down and chin exposed which leaves him open to clean punches when his opponents catch up to him. Opponents land nearly 40% of power punches vs. Martinez, one of the highest percentages amongst CompuBox-tracked boxers. This may be a problem vs. an offensively efficient fighter like Cotto.

Prefight Summary

 Unless Martinez's age has finally caught up to him or he is still affected by his recurring hand and knee injuries, I think this will be an easy fight for Martinez. The bottom line with this fight is Martinez is naturally much bigger than Cotto - who will be fighting at middleweight for the first time - and is either slightly better or much better than Cotto at just about every other aspect of boxing.

Cotto has had problems in the past vs. top-level southpaws with good speed (see Manny Pacquiao, Austin Trout, and stretches of the Zab Judah fight), allowing them combined to land over 50% of their power punches. I expect Cotto's defensive flaws to be magnified vs. a bigger boxer in Martinez, who also has very good hand speed and throws some of the best combinations in boxing.

Cotto may have a game plan to pressure Martinez and beat him on the inside with a body attack. I don't see Cotto having sustained success with this game plan vs. a bigger, stronger guy like Martinez. If Cotto tries to pressure Martinez, I expect Sergio's crisp counterpunching to eventually wear Cotto down in the mid to late rounds. Martinez is a determined fighter who is not only more skilled than Cotto, but is fighting with a chip on his shoulder due to feeling disrespected in the prefight negotiations so I don't see Martinez letting this fight get away from him. Cotto is an aggressive boxer who packs a powerful punch, but I don't see his power at middleweight comparing to true middleweight power such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Martin Murray, or Matthew Macklin, who were all able to knockdown Martinez in the later rounds of recent fights, but were unable to finish him.

Again, the big concern I have in this fight is whether or not Martinez finally shows his age and whether or not the injuries that have affected him in his last two fights recur again. If they do, this fight is certainly up in the air and Cotto could get the stoppage. But if Martinez stays healthy throughout the fight I fully expect the bigger, more skilled Martinez to beat Cotto by TKO/KO, if not a wide unanimous decision. A prime Miguel Cotto I would give a chance in this fight, not the slowed down 33-year old version we'll be seeing on Saturday.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO/KO or Decision