Leo Santa Cruz vs. Aber Mares II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1, 19 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (31-2-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz: -570, Mares: +570 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purses: Santa Cruz: $1 million, Mares: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #1 ranked featherweight, Mares: #5 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Thomas Taylor

Why you should watch this fight

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares II is a rematch of a fight that exceeded the hype and was universally considered one of the best fights of 2015. The first fight was arguably a classic - one of the best fights the Premier Boxing Champions series has aired in their three years of existence. A rematch seems almost certain to please and be another fight-of-the-year candidate, especially given the classic style matchup between two elite Mexican brawlers which is expected to take place in front of an energetic, mostly Mexican-American/Mexican crowd in the heart of downtown Los Angeles.

Since beating (then undefeated) Carl Frampton for the WBA featherweight title (which avenged his own loss to Frampton in 2016, the only loss of his career), Santa Cruz has widely been considered the best featherweight in the world. This Saturday, Santa Cruz gives Mares a chance to avenge his loss in their first fight, a highly entertaining fight that ended in a close but clear majority decision victory for Santa Cruz.

After losing to Santa Cruz, Mares changed trainers, hiring the well-known Oxnard, California-based trainer Robert Garcia. Mares has looked impressive in his two fights under Garcia, winning the "regular" version of the WBA featherweight title in the process. Will Mares - who as recently as a few years ago Ring Magazine rated as high as the #5 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound -  make the necessary adjustments under Garcia to avenge his loss in 2015 vs. Santa Cruz? Or will Santa Cruz get the better of Mares again in the rematch and solidify his status as the best featherweight in the world?

The winner of Saturday's fight will have the opportunity for a unification superfight with WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. (who's already indicated he'd like to fight the winner of this matchup) or possibly fight WBO interim featherweight champion Carl Frampton, who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire (which would be particularly intriguing if Santa Cruz beats Mares, as it would set up a much-anticipated rubber match between the two fighters).

Prefight Analysis

Santa Cruz vs. Mares is for sure one of the better bets for 2018 Fight of the Year. This is one of those matchups that you can be almost certain will be a competitive, action-packed fight. But I do think the outcome of the fight may depend largely on Mares' approach to the fight - especially given that he's under a different trainer (Robert Garcia) than he was in his first matchup with Santa Cruz. If Mares stays aggressive, keeps the fight physical and at close range, and uses (admittedly borderline illegal) clinching effectively as he did in the first couple of rounds of his first fight vs. Santa Cruz and as he did for stretches of his last two fights vs. Jesus Cuellar and Andres Gutierrez, he has more than a reasonable chance to pull off the upset  - assuming his stamina holds up and he can sustain his aggressiveness through 12 rounds.

To accompany decent power, Mares - at 32 years old - still has quicker hand speed than Santa Cruz and has the technical skills to exploit Santa Cruz's 3" height advantage and high-guard defensive posture (which should provide the shorter Mares with ample opportunities to land clean body shots if he can stay at close range vs. Santa Cruz).

Both Santa Cruz and Mares are high-volume pressure fighters but Mares is more adept at using his physicality to brawl inside. If Mares can successfully employ a rough-house attack strategy (i.e., turn this into an ugly fight), this is a fight I think he can win.

But - despite how solid Mares has looked in recent fights under Garcia - I think Santa Cruz most likely wins the rematch by decision, perhaps even more convincingly than he won the first fight. As with the first fight I see the key to Saturday's fight being Santa Cruz's more voluminous punch output combined with his superior stamina. Santa Cruz's advantages in accurate work rate and consistent energy were I think the key difference the first fight three years ago; I don't see a 32-year-old, slightly past prime Mares closing the gap in either of these areas vs. a prime Santa Cruz - if anything I expect Mares to have less stamina and have a lower work rate than he did in their first fight when Mares was closer to his prime.

I see Santa Cruz and Mares as roughly on the same level in terms of skill and power. Mares has superior hand speed and is the better fighter inside but I think Santa Cruz's stamina, consistently high work rate, and more accurate punching will overwhelm Mares in the middle to later rounds regardless of any adjustments Mares has made under Robert Garcia and regardless of whether the fight is fought from close range or from distance.

Though I think the fighters are somewhat evenly matched skill-wise, it should be noted that since his first fight with Mares, Santa Cruz has gained experience and seemingly improved in his two wars with Frampton (who is generally considered a better boxer than Mares). In his second fight vs. Frampton last year, Santa Cruz made impressive adjustments - including switching from a more aggressive, pressuring approach to utilizing his reach advantage to outbox Frampton from distance - to avenge his loss in the first fight. (An adjustment somewhat similar to the adjustments he made after the first couple of rounds in his first fight with Mares where he transitioned from trading punches with Mares on the inside to boxing more from distance.)

From his previous experience with Mares, I anticipate Santa Cruz having a better feel for how to counter Mares' aggressive, physical style and think he'll win more convincingly this time around by clear - albeit a competitive and at times thrilling - unanimous decision, if not a late stoppage.

If - at the beginning of 2018 - I was asked to pick a single fight that could be expected to live up to the hype and contend for Fight of the Year it would be this one so looking forward to seeing how the action shapes out!

Prediction: Santa Cruz by decision

Recommended bet: 1) Santa Cruz by any decision (risk 1 unit)

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Canelo vs. Khan: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez -475, Khan +420 (5 Dimes, 5/7/16)
Purse: Alvarez: $3.5 million, Khan: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Khan: #2 ranked welterweight
Style: Canelo: Orthodox, Khan: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Khan is (by far) the biggest fight of the year thus far and is the first boxing event at MGM Resorts' brand new T-Mobile Arena, which just opened in April. This will be Canelo's first middleweight title defense after defeating Miguel Cotto last November for the WBC, Ring Magazine, and lineal middleweight titles. Will this fight be the precursor to a megafight with Gennady Golovkin later this year or early 2017? Can Canelo decisively defeat a fighter in Khan who - by most accounts - is the more technically skilled fighter with a clear hand and foot speed advantage? In the recent past, Canelo has had issues with mobile fighters like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara; Khan is generally considered quicker than both.

This is the first PPV fight for Khan and stands a good chance of being the defining fight of his career; can Khan become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? If Khan beats Canelo, he would become only the 2nd boxer to win a lineal championship in his first fight after jumping up two divisions (Duran) - that would be an extremely impressive feat even considering the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are many reasons why Canelo is around a 5-1 favorite to win this fight.

Canelo is the younger, stronger boxer (and in fact is likely the strongest boxer Khan has ever faced) facing a boxer in Khan who has a notorious history of chin (as well as other fundamental defensive) problems resulting in him being knocked down and/or knocked out multiple times by lesser punchers than Canelo. Canelo is the naturally bigger boxer fighting in a weight range he is comfortable at (150-155 lbs) and has been fighting at for over five years while Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight at 155 lbs for the first time after fighting his entire career at 140 and 147. Khan has pretty good power but how his power will translate after moving up two weight classes is a huge question mark, especially against a bigger fighter like Canelo who has proven to have a very good chin. (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.)

Canelo is in his prime and appears to still be improving with each fight. Although known and marketed as a big puncher, Canelo is a (very) high IQ, skilled boxer who, per CompuBox statistics, is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. He is a patient, but highly accurate puncher who throws combination punches in particular very well. Canelo is also an excellent body puncher who will likely make it a point to attack Khan's body throughout the course of the fight. Khan is very mobile but it will be nearly impossible for him to elude Canelo's aggressive accuracy and power for a full 12 rounds - especially given his penchant for staying at inside distance a bit too long while executing his quick combinations.

Canelo cuts off the ring pretty well for someone not too fleet of foot (he had success cutting off the ring vs. Lara in spots) and, while not quite as fast as Khan, has very underrated hand speed.

No one would consider Canelo a defensive wizard but his defense - in particular his upper body and head movement - have noticeably improved in recent fights. Canelo has also never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, which has included many fights vs. boxers much bigger and stronger than Khan. It's tough to envision Khan - who is fighting at middleweight for the first time in his career after spending his entire career at junior welterweight and welterweight - posing a threat to Canelo in terms of punching power.

On Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, the crowd at the new T-Mobile Arena will be decidedly pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring (i.e., inspiration for Canelo to fight well in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd) and the judging outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which is highly possible given Khan's outstanding offensive skill and advantage in speed) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Amir Khan will win

Despite the clear strength and size discrepancies, Khan does have some advantages over Canelo which could lead to an upset.

Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.

Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.

Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.

As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.

Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.

Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night. 

Prefight Analysis

If chin and size weren't an issue, I'd probably take Khan to win this fight.

I generally agree with the sentiment that Khan has never been outboxed and think that, while Canelo's hand speed is underrated, Khan should be able to consistently beat Canelo to the punch and stay out of range vs. the relatively slow-footed Canelo and his dangerous punching power. Canelo has sometimes had trouble cutting off the ring vs. more mobile opponents; there's a good possibility he'll have similar problems vs. Khan, who is likely the fastest opponent he's ever faced. 

Khan's defensive deficiencies notwithstanding, if Khan stays out of the corner of the ring (where he is at much greater risk of getting pummeled) and picks the right spots to throw his quick combinations he can outwork and outpoint the at times low-volume and overly patient Canelo. Again, the question would be how much success Khan will have eluding Canelo's pressure and accurate punching power for 12 rounds.

Though I believe Khan to be an elite offensive fighter with overall better skills than Canelo, there are several reasons why I strongly favor Canelo to win this fight. Firstly, the size disparity will be too much for Khan to overcome. Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight for the first time as a middleweight; while the weight jump is effectively only eight pounds (147 lbs to 155 lbs), there is expected to be a wide size discrepancy between Khan and the naturally bigger Canelo (who typically balloons to well over 170 lbs) on fight night. Canelo will be (by far) the biggest fighter and strongest puncher Khan has ever fought, while it is doubtful Khan's solid power at 147 lbs will translate well at the higher weight class vs. a fighter in Canelo who has already proven his chin vs. bigger fighters than Khan. There is also a question of how Khan's speed - his primary advantage in the fight - will be affected by the higher weight.

Secondly Khan's chin will likely mot be able to elude Canelo - one of the more accurate and efficient punchers in the sport - for 12 rounds. Khan has been knocked out in early rounds vs. lesser punchers at junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs); there's little reason to think Khan won't suffer the same - or even a worse - fate vs. a bigger, stronger power puncher in Canelo. Khan's defense does appear to have improved a bit in his 3.5 years under trainer Virgil Hunter (e.g., he's decreased exposure to his chin by staying off the ropes more and spending less time inside throwing the multi-punch combinations that put him in poor defensive positions) but it should also be noted that Khan's chin hasn't really been tested in recent fights - he hasn't faced a good puncher since fighting Julio Diaz four fights ago in 2013; Khan won a close decision in that fight but Diaz did score a 4th round knockdown.

Sure, Canelo has had difficulty with faster fighters in the recent past, most notably Mayweather and Lara, but Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of the sport and Lara is one of the best defensive fighters today. Both Mayweather and Lara are elite, high IQ boxers who understanding spacing and were able to elude Canelo with their length and vertical movement even while at close range. Khan is actually faster than both Mayweather and Lara but does not move as well or have the defensive IQ of either fighter. Khan still has issues with staying inside a bit too long and still has subpar upper body movement, meaning he'll likely be easier to hit when Canelo (inevitably) catches up to him. In recent fights, Khan has sometimes been able to avoid pressure by clinching or pushing off on his opponents - it will be much tougher to do this vs. a bigger opponent in Canelo.

In his most recent fight, Khan surprisingly even had issues defensively vs. the soft-punching Chris Algieri at welterweight so tough to see Khan not having a much worse time of it vs. one of the better punchers in the sport.

Even if Khan is somehow able to maintain distance vs. Canelo and box effectively with him for 12 rounds, there is still the issue of whether Khan will get a fair score as the "B-side" of the boxing promotion on Cinco De Mayo weekend in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd. Khan throws a lot of punches and could outwork the typically low-volume Canelo but - fair or not - Canelo has a judge-friendly style due largely to his aggression and tendency to land clean, accurate power punches. So even if Khan outboxes Canelo (which is a possibility), there is a decent chance Canelo still gets the decision.

But given Khan's size deficiency, chin issues, and fundamental defensive flaws, I don't see this fight going 12 rounds anyway. I expect Canelo to eventually figure out Khan's timing, catch up to him in the mid to late rounds, and score a TKO/KO victory vs. an opponent who's perhaps bit off a bit more than he can chew by moving up to middleweight to fight Canelo.

Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO (1.5 units)

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Garcia vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (31-0, 18 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (33-3-1, 18 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: January 23, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Welterweight title (recently vacated by Floyd Mayweather Jr.)
TV: Fox
Line: Garcia -1000, Guerrero +800 (5 Dimes, 1/23/16)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #8 ranked welterweight; was Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion prior to moving up to welterweight, Guerrero: Not ranked (#6 ranked welterweight by WBC)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Jack Reiss

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Garcia opened in late December of last year as a solid -825 favorite, with Guerrero as a 4.75-1 (+475) underdog. Betting has fluctuated since then but for the most part has been with the younger, undefeated Garcia, who is currently a -1000 favorite, with Guerrero priced as an 8-1 (+800) underdog.

Why Danny Garcia will win

On paper this could be an easy fight for Garcia. He is an undefeated former junior welterweight champion with power and is in the prime of his career facing an older, very battle worn fighter in Guerrero - who is just 2-2 in his last four fights. Each of Guerrero's last three fights have been wars and he was knocked down in the most recent two of those fights (vs. Aaron Martinez and Keith Thurman). 

Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who should be able to capitalize on the fact that Guerrero's reflexes and defensive skills appear to have waned with age and the wear and tear of those recent fights (as evidenced by the fact that Guerrero barely won a split decision as a 40-1 favorite in his last fight vs. Martinez, which included getting knocked down early by an opponent in Martinez who has only won 4 of his 25 career fights by TKO/KO). Garcia has generally had problems with fighters who move well and can box from distance but Guerrero, despite having the ability to box from the outside, is a brawler at heart and will likely stand right in front of Danny for large portions of the fight.

In terms of experience, Garcia has been criticized for title defenses vs. questionable opponents but his overall resume is pretty solid, having beaten quality opponents such as Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Amir Khan, Erik Morales (twice), and Zab Judah. Garcia has actually been an overachiever in his (thus far perfect) career, decisively winning fights even when he came in as a clear underdog (as was the case when he fought Matthysse and Khan, who were among the most feared and avoided fighters in boxing at the times Garcia fought them).

Garcia has never been knocked down or knocked out as a pro so it would be tough to imagine Guerrero - especially at this point of his career - affecting the course of this fight with his power. (Guerrero hasn't knocked down an opponent since his fight vs. Andre Berto in November 2012.)

Guerrero on the other hand has been getting hit often and fairly consistently throughout his recent fights; Garcia is a very good offensive fighter who should be able to land power punches - including his left hook which is considered by many one of the best left hooks in boxing -  with little difficulty. Garcia has knocked down his opponent in six out of his last eight fights (with ten knockdowns in those six fights) so it would not be a surprise to see Danny score knockdowns vs. Guerrero and possibly even get the stoppage vs. a past prime (and seemingly rapidly fading) Guerrero.

Why Robert Guerrero will win

Yeah he's a sizable underdog, but we can't forget that Guerrero is a former world champion/interim world champion in four weight divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight) and just 2.5 years ago was ranked the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #9 fighter in the world after having gone over seven years without losing a fight. The fact is Guerrero could (and can still) box; from a technical standpoint many would say he actually has better boxing skills than Garcia both from distance and on the inside.   

Guerrero is a crafty, technically skilled southpaw who still poses a challenge even for A-level opponents with his experience, toughness, and versatile inside/outside boxing abilities. The only clear losses in Guerrero's career were against Keith Thurman and recently retired pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. - two A-level fighters who move well; Garcia is not as skilled or mobile as either of the two. Guerrero is the much more experienced inside fighter so could have a tactical advantage in a brawl (and most recent Guerrero fights have devolved into brawls), but Guerrero could also give Garcia problems if he stays on his feet and boxes from the outside, a style which has given Garcia problems in multiple recent fights (including his recent controversial decisions vs. Peterson and Mauricio Herrera).

It's important to note that Guerrero has had six fights over the last three years at welterweight (where he was an interim world welterweight champion), whereas this will only be Garcia's second fight as a true 147-pound welterweight after spending the majority of his pro career at junior welterweight.

A third generation Mexican-American, Guerrero will be fighting tonight in his home state of California and - with the number of Mexican-Americans and Mexicans expected to be in attendance in downtown Los Angeles - he will likely be the strong crowd favorite.

If Guerrero can maintain a high punch output vs. an often patient Garcia and his chin holds up, the opportunity is there for an upset - especially if he can neutralize Garcia's power by staying inside and pushing the fight towards a brawl. This is a winnable fight for Guerrero if he fights with his head and can somehow tap into the energy and determination he fought with in his prime just a few years ago.

Prefight Analysis

If this was a prime Robert Guerrero fighting Danny Garcia I would take Guerrero in this fight without too much thought, even at less favorable odds. Prime Guerrero was an underrated fighter who could outbox you from the outside with his jab, above average reach, and foot movement but was also adept at smothering from close range and outworking his opponents inside. Guerrero is the more experienced welterweight who overall probably still has a higher boxing IQ and slightly better boxing skills than the younger, more athletic Garcia. At his best, Guerrero fights with a relentless determination that would be tough for a typically laid-back fighter like Garcia to match over the course of 12 rounds.

But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.

Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient  guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.

Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.

In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).

Prediction: Garcia by decision (1 unit)

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Cotto vs. Canelo: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 21, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title (if Alvarez wins; Cotto was stripped of title prior to fight)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +275, Alvarez -305 (5 Dimes, 11/21/15)
Purse: Cotto: $15 million, Alvarez: $5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Canelo: #1 ranked junior middleweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Canelo: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Canelo opened in late July as a -245 favorite shortly before the fight was officially announced, with Cotto as a slight +175 underdog. Public betting trended for the next couple of months after that in favor of the younger, bigger Canelo, who peaked as a -350 favorite in early October. Over the past few weeks approaching the fight however, it appears the underdog odds have enticed bettors to wager mostly on the still dangerously powerful Cotto, who has won his last three fights by easy TKO/KO victory since hiring Freddie Roach as trainer; Canelo is currently a -305 favorite, with Cotto as a +275 underdog.

Why Miguel Cotto will win

Despite being 35 years old (10 years older than Canelo), Cotto has looked over the past two years as impressive as he's ever looked in his career - winning his last three fights by wide TKO victories (and arguably not losing a single round in any of those three fights). Since hiring 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach as his trainer, Cotto has clearly regained confidence in his abilities as a top-level boxer and is fighting with a renewed energy.    

Cotto is generally considered the better overall boxer in this matchup, coming into this fight vs. Canelo with advantages in boxing IQ, skill, and speed. Cotto has superior foot movement to the relatively flat-footed Canelo and, especially given his effective use of movement in recent fights under Freddie Roach, is perhaps in a better position to control the tempo of this fight.

As shown in his recent fights, Cotto still has very good power in both hands... power comparable to that of Canelo despite Canelo being 10 years his junior. Cotto's left hook is his signature punch (Cotto's left hook is in fact widely considered one of the best punches in the sport) and he's also a devastating body puncher who throws combinations well. Cotto is a naturally more aggressive fighter than the typically patient, relatively low-output Canelo so do not be surprised if Cotto outworks Canelo in the initial rounds and takes some of the steam out of Canelo's power with early body shots.

Overall Cotto is still one of the best offensive fighters in boxing, having won 33 of his 44 pro fights by TKO/KO - a higher career TKO/KO percentage (75%) than other notable recent power punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Carl Froch, and Canelo himself. Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career but Cotto's brother Jose Miguel almost knocked Canelo out in the first round of their May 2010 fight. Cotto's last six wins have been by TKO/KO.

Cotto's power and advantage in foot speed could pose a problem for a fighter in Canelo who does not move well and deliberately paces himself during fights to conserve energy.

Cotto has the clear advantage in terms of experience. Despite being only 25, Canelo has solid experience but Cotto is perhaps the most experienced active fighter in boxing, having fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez, as well as former world champions Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), Ricardo Mayorga, Joshua Clottey, and Daniel Geale. Last year Cotto upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had only lost one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Three years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave  recently retired pound-for-pound king Mayweather one of the toughest fights in his career.

At the end of the day, Cotto is one of the best boxers of this generation while Canelo is still to an extent young and unproven. Cotto is a future first ballot hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, junior middleweight, and middleweight).

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are solid reasons why Canelo is entering this fight as roughly a -300 favorite.

At only 25 years old, Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; a technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands.

Canelo is a patient, thinking boxer who statistically is one of the top 2-3 efficient boxers in the sport. He's an accurate puncher who lands a very high percentage of power punches and overall punches thrown (to the point where he at one time was ranked #1 by CompuBox in terms of percentage of power punches landed). Canelo is a splendid combination puncher who, while often low-output, tends to land punches cleanly and with power (which often makes an impression on judges in close rounds).

Canelo is a full decade younger than Cotto and is in the prime of his career. Canelo is naturally bigger and stronger than Cotto (likely the strongest fighter Cotto has ever fought in terms of pure physical strength) and has a 3.5" reach advantage on Cotto. (Canelo is generally expected to give up the reach advantage so he can pressure the smaller Cotto inside but the reach should help him neutralize Cotto's speed advantage when he boxes from range.)

Canelo is not the most mobile fighter (actually is relatively flat-footed) but he did have success in spots cutting off the ring vs. highly skilled light middleweight champion Erislandy Lara (who has much better foot movement than Cotto)... so one would expect Canelo would have at least as much success cutting off the ring vs. Cotto, who will not be as elusive as Lara and who has a history of stamina issues in the late rounds.

Although Cotto is the more experienced fighter, the 25-year old Canelo has already amassed a ton of experience, having fought Floyd Mayweather, former lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), future first ballot hall-of-famer Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, and Kermit Cintron.

Due to expected strong Mexican/Mexican-American fan attendance, the crowd at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is expected to be largely pro-Canelo, which could have some influence on both the boxers inside the ring and the judging outside the ring. Scoring in close Canelo fights has tended to favor Canelo; even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw. If the fight is close and goes 12 rounds I strongly expect Canelo to be granted the decision.

Canelo is no defensive wizard and - as a pressure fighter with slow foot movement - is certainly susceptible to counterpunching. But Canelo's chin has held up against bigger and stronger fighters than Cotto (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career) and his defense - in particular his upper body defensive movement - has noticeably improved in recent fights.

Cotto has looked extremely impressive in recent fights but who has he really beaten? Last year, Cotto beat a 39-year old fighter in Martinez suffering from a debilitating knee injury (which led to his Martinez's retirement after the fight) and who had been knocked down in each of his three fights prior to the Cotto fight. In June, Cotto defeated a 34-year old middleweight in Geale who looked weight drained and was clearly affected by the 157-pound catchweight. In tonight's fight, Cotto will be fighting a young, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is much better able to adapt to the (155 lb) catchweight.

Prefight Analysis

While this is certainly a competitive fight that could go either way, I'd give a 60/40 edge to Canelo for a few reasons:

For one, Canelo is the (much) younger, bigger, and stronger fighter. In Cotto's previous two fights, he fought a 39-year old, injury plagued fighter in Martinez and a 34-year old, weight drained, unexceptional fighter in Geale. While I'd actually still give Cotto a decent chance to win this fight by stoppage, Cotto is facing a much different animal in a 25-year old, fresh, injury-free fighter in Canelo who is perhaps more comfortable at the 155 lb catchweight than Cotto is. Furthermore, Canelo is an aggressive, but cautious fighter who has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown good improvement defensively in recent fights; Cotto likely won't be able to dominate this quality of opponent the same way he ran through Martinez and Geale. While Canelo isn't exactly known for his stamina, he is patient and preserves energy better than Cotto - I'd expect him to have an edge vs. an older, tired Cotto if the fight progresses into the later rounds.

Secondly, due to the expected strong presence of Mexican and Mexican-American fans at the fight, Canelo will essentially be fighting in front of a home crowd. As noted above, there is a chance the partisan crowd influences both the action inside the ring and the judges outside the ring in Canelo's favor. In close 12-round fights in front of pro-Canelo crowds of the past, Canelo has pretty much always benefited from favorable scoring from the judges; if this turns out to be a close, competitive 12-round fight (which is highly possible), I'd expect the decision to favor Canelo even if Cotto slightly outboxes him.

Canelo consistently brings the fight to his opponents and is a highly efficient boxer who throws splendid crowd (and judge) pleasing combinations with power that often land clean... his fan-friendly style is another element that often helps him with judges in close rounds.

Thirdly, Canelo does have experience with fighters having better movement than Cotto (e.g., Lara, Trout, and Mayweather). Although the judges' decisions were debatable, Canelo did have success in stretches pressuring Lara and Trout so I'd expect him to have at least somewhat better success pressuring Cotto - who is older, less mobile, and possesses less stamina than either Lara or Trout did at the time.

Canelo's youth, size, and power advantages - along with his ability to effectively pressure... not to mention the fact that he will be fighting in front of a solidly pro-Canelo crowd... largely explain why he is correctly favored in tonight's matchup.

But despite the fact that I feel Canelo will *probably* win tonight's fight (whether deserved or not), I actually feel the best *value* is betting on +275 underdog Cotto to win the fight. At the end of the day Cotto is just the better boxer who, in my opinion, has a clear advantage in both boxing skill and foot speed (especially foot speed). Cotto fights at both a faster mental and physical pace than the generally patient, low-output, slower Canelo; I think there is enough value not only in Cotto at +275 to win the fight but even Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 where betting on Cotto is the best bet.

I expect Cotto to outbox the slow-starting Canelo in the early rounds with a powerful body attack that will keep the slower Canelo at bay throughout much of the fight. I'd expect Cotto in the opening rounds to be mobile enough to evade Canelo's pressure but fast enough to beat Canelo to the punch during exchanges.

In my opinion, the big question is how well Cotto will perform in the later rounds as he starts to tire... but there is a good chance the typically low-output Canelo - who has stamina issues in his own right - won't be able to put enough clean punches together in the second half of the fight to win enough of the later rounds.

Again, I do like Canelo to probably win this fight due to his significant age and size advantages (which puts him in a good position to wear Cotto down as the fight progresses), as well as the strong home crowd (and perhaps judging) advantage he will have. But Cotto's clear advantages in pure skill, speed, and experience I think make betting on Cotto the best value play given the current odds.

 Regardless of who wins, I'll be at this fight personally and look forward to watching should be a great addition to the classic Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry!!!

Prediction: Cotto to win (1 unit)

[Recommended hedge bet: Cotto by TKO/KO at +700 (.5 unit)]

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Bradley vs. Rios: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight:  Timothy Bradley (32-1-1-1, 12 KOs) vs.  Brandon Rios (33-2-1, 24 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Bradley -380, Rios +340 (5 Dimes, 11/6/15)
Purse: Bradley: $1.9 million, Rios: $800,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Bradley: #4 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Bradley: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Bradley
Negatives for Bradley
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Bradley

• Current WBO welterweight title holder. As a five-time world champion at junior welterweight and welterweight, Bradley is an experienced, battle-tested boxer whose resume is on par with the best 140 and 147 lb fighters of the past decade. Other than Floyd Mayweather is the only boxer to defeat future first ballot hall-of-famers Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez. With his June 2013 split decision victory vs. Marquez, Bradley likely sealed his ticket into the International Boxing Hall of Fame. 
• A long-time undefeated fighter whose only loss in career was a competitive unanimous decision loss to Pacquiao in April 2014. As recently as last year was ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport by Ring Magazine; has defeated an impressive list of former world champions including Pacquiao, Marquez, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, Ruslan Provodnikov, Miguel Vazquez, Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Jessie Vargas, and Junior Witter. Most or all of the former world champions Bradley has beaten were better skilled, arguably tougher opponents than Rios at the time. 
• Technically savvy, versatile boxer who can outbox opponents from the outside with reach, speed, and movement but is also often willing to use his toughness and physical strength to brawl inside. Bradley is a skilled boxer who is adept at adjusting to his opponent's tendencies during fights - shown most notably in his first fight with Pacquiao where he outworked Manny in the 2nd half of the fight. Bradley comes into this fight with Rios with a clear skill advantage.
•  Determined boxer with heart who is good at finding ways to win close fights. Despite all he's accomplished in boxing is still highly motivated and still fights like he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao over three years ago.  
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Bradley possesses very good to great vertical and horizontal movement which should allow him to have success evading Rios's pressure over the course of the fight. Rios is a relatively slow, flat-footed fighter who will likely have trouble cutting off the ring vs. the more mobile Bradley and will also likely have trouble beating Bradley to the punch due to inferior hand speed. 
• Many feel Rios is a threat to defeat Bradley by TKO/KO but Bradley has already survived (and beaten) better power punchers than Rios in Pacquiao and Provodnikov who were both also more mobile than Rios. Bradley is arguably a different level of fighter than Rios, with clear skill, speed, and quickness advantages, as well as a slight reach advantage and jab which he should be able to use to keep Rios at bay throughout most of the fight.
• Bradley has a new trainer in current ESPN boxing commentator Teddy Atlas, who has trained (or helped train) former world champions Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, and Alexander Povetkin. Atlas has not been an active trainer in recent years, but is more experienced and arguably more knowledgeable than Bradley's former trainer Joel Diaz. Atlas is reportedly training Bradley to keep distance and box from range in the upcoming fight vs. Rios, which will likely be to Bradley's advantage.
• Although Bradley has shown a questionable chin in the 12th round of recent fights vs. Vargas and Provodnikov, Bradley is a mentally tough fighter who has never been stopped in his career. The knockdowns Bradley suffered vs. Provodnikov is the only time Bradley has been knocked down in his career.
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 8.5 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of their October 2013 fight.

Negatives for Bradley

• At 32 years old, Bradley has looked past his prime and somewhat battle-worn in recent fights; in his last three fights Bradley has an unimpressive record of 1-1-1. Last year, Bradley faded in the later rounds of his loss vs. Pacquiao and draw vs. Diego Chaves (though the Chaves fight was a fight many still felt he won convincingly). In Bradley's most recent fight vs. Vargas, he was almost knocked down late in the 12th round and possibly could've been stopped if he hadn't been saved by the bell. Rios - a more natural pressure fighter with better power than Vargas - is coming off one of the more impressive wins of his career with his TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado and poses a real threat if Bradley slows down in the later rounds as he's done in recent fights.  
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which will allow Rios - who has an excellent chin - to take chances and be relentlessly aggressive throughout the fight. Unlike the Pacquiao fight, Rios won't have to worry about power with Bradley's counter punching so should have opportunities in spots to corner and unload power punches on Bradley despite his clear disadvantage in foot speed.   
• Bradley is an elusive fighter but his defense is arguably overrated and has been especially questionable as of late. Bradley has been getting hit increasingly flush in recent fights, in particular when he chooses to stand in at close range and brawl. Bradley sometimes shows an inclination to brawl (rather than box) in certain spots (an inclination that has increased since his controversial win vs. Pacquiao), which could be to his detriment vs. a dangerous pressure fighter in Rios. 
• This will be Bradley's first professional fight without Joel Diaz as his trainer. Teddy Atlas, Bradley's new trainer, is a highly respected and skilled trainer (even more so than Diaz by most accounts) but it's a huge unknown what effect a new trainer will have on an older, past prime boxer who'd only been with one trainer his entire career.

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA lightweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earlier this year scored one of the more impressive wins of his career with a 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, Colorado. (Alvarado is a former light welterweight champion who beat Rios in their previous fight.) In October 2012 Rios earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado - Alvarado's first loss as a professional. 
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (a fight which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed. If Saturday's fight vs. Bradley turns into a brawl (which it could given Bradley's inclination at times to brawl), Rios stands a good chance of having success as that type of fight comes much more naturally to Rios than Bradley.    
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in his three fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Bradley, Rios is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win.  Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be in jeopardy with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Rios is Mexican-American; due to his fan-friendly fight style and the anticipated solid presence of Mexican/Mexican-American fight fans, it is expected that the crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center will be pro-Rios.

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Bradley will be fighting a boxer with a significant advantage in technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed. Rios will have to turn fight with Bradley into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match, Bradley likely wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and slight reach advantage (which he can use to maintain distance from Rios's power punching).
• Rios has lost two out of his last four fights, including a wide unanimous decision loss to Manny Pacquiao (a fight where he arguably didn't win a single round). Rios looked good in his win earlier this year vs. Alvarado but Alvarado, by his own admittance, didn't train properly for the fight and was heavily distracted by legal and substance abuse issues. Rios's only other win in the past two years was a DQ victory last year vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last six fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for higher skilled opponents such as Alvarado in their first two fights and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Like Bradley has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his first two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who is getting older and never in his career beaten a boxer with Bradley's skill, be able to stay competitive vs. a pound-for-pound caliber fighter?

Prefight Summary

There are certainly some reasons why Rios could win this fight. Rios is highly confident and coming off perhaps the best win of his career - an easy 3rd round TKO victory vs. Mike Alvarado after the two split their two previous highly competitive (and fight-of-the-year caliber) fights. Although Alvarado, by his own admittance, came into the fight a bit out of shape and distracted by personal issues, Rios fought with a sense of urgency we've rarely seen in him before and looked as sharp and accurate as he has ever looked.

Rios is indeed a skilled brawler who, while not as fast or talented as Bradley, is effective at cutting off the ring and will almost certainly have his opportunities over the course of 12 rounds, especially vs. Bradley who seems to have a natural inclination towards brawling when pressured. Bradley can be elusive, but he's also shown susceptibility in recent fights to getting hit, most notably in his 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov (where he suffered the 1st knockdown of his career and appeared out on his feet on multiple occasions) and late in his most recent fight vs. Vargas, where he was hit flush and struggled to stay on his feet in the closing seconds of the 12th round. (Vargas, with only 9 KOs in 27 fights, is not known for his punching power.)

Bradley has been in some wars in recent fights and appears to be not quite the fighter he once was; if  what seems to be a rejuvenated Rios can maintain pressure on Bradley throughout the fight and turn it into a brawl, it's highly conceivable Rios could wear Bradley down and get the TKO/KO victory in the later rounds.

But, at the end of the day, I do think even a slightly past prime, battle-worn Bradley should be able to box circles around what is essentially a B-level fighter in Brandon Rios. Not a lot of people realize Bradley has been one of the top fighters pound-for-pound in the sport over the past decade (just last year ranked as high as #3 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine) and has the solid resume to back it up. Bradley has clear skill and speed advantages over Rios (as Pacquiao did when he fought Rios, though Bradley can't match Pacquiao's power) and *should* (like Pacquiao) be able to win nearly every one with effective boxing and movement.

Bradley's inclination to brawl could get him in trouble in spots but Rios, in my opinion, is too slow and flat-footed to give Bradley consistent trouble over the course of 12 rounds. Bradley has already fought (and beaten) better punchers with more skill than Rios and should have little to no problems in this fight.

I think Bradley by decision is far and away the smartest bet in this matchup *but* would recommend
hedging the bet with Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 as a knockout in the last 4-6 rounds of the fight is the only way I see Rios winning.

Prediction: Bradley by decision (2 units) 

[Recommended Hedge: Rios by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 at +717]

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Santa Cruz vs. Mares: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (30-0-1, 17 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (29-1-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: August 29, 2015
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Santa Cruz -230, Mares +190 (5 Dimes, 8/29/15)
Purse: Santa Cruz: $1.25 million, Mares: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #2 ranked junior featherweight, Mares: #4 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Santa Cruz
Negatives for Santa Cruz
Positives for Mares
Negatives for Mares
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Santa Cruz

• Undefeated boxer (30-0-1) who is the former IBF Bantamweight (122 lbs) and current WBC Super Bantamweight (126 lbs) champion. Hyper-aggressive, relentless puncher who - per CompuBox stats - both throws and lands more punches than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer.   
• Come-forward pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with an accumulation of punches thrown from a wide array of angles. But despite his high activity is a surprisingly accurate and efficient fighter; often throws over 100 punches in a round and lands around 40 percent of those punches, a percentage which - per CompuBox stats - ranks third behind only Floyd Mayweather and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Adept at setting opponents up with the jab in early rounds to set-up rapid multi-punch flurries in later rounds as his opponents tire. 
• Technically sound boxer with a fairly good high guard defense; per CompuBox stats, Santa Cruz opponents only land approximately 25 percent of their punches. Has also shown a very good chin thus far in his career, having only been knocked down once in 31 professional fights (knocked down in the 4th round of his August 2009 fight vs. Robert DaLuz, a fight he won by unanimous decision). Has a better chin and better defensive skills than Mares, which will come into play if this fight turns into a brawl.
• Has excellent stamina; despite throwing more punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer, Santa Cruz doesn't seem to tire. Fights with as much energy in middle to late rounds as he does in early rounds.
• Relatively tall fighter for this weight class (5'7") and will come into this fight vs. Mares as the taller (3" height advantage) and likely slightly larger fighter in size. Relatively long-limbed fighter (69" reach) who will also have a 3" reach advantage so may be able to keep Mares, a specialist at fighting inside, at arm's length with his jab if needed.
• Mares is the more proven, experienced fighter but Santa Cruz is actually considered the "A-side" fighter in this matchup, considering that Santa Cruz has gotten more of the press attention and his name is getting top billing for the fight. Both Mares and Santa Cruz are managed by Al Haymon and his Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) promotional company but Haymon and PBC appear to be mainly promoting Santa Cruz as a potential future superstar in the sport. As the more "politically connected" fighter, there is a greater chance of Santa Cruz getting the decision in a close fight - even if Mares turns in the slightly better performance.
• Is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Looking to gain the first marquee win of his career by defeating Mares.

Negatives for Santa Cruz

• Santa Cruz is a largely untested fighter who has fought questionable competition over the course of his career. Most notable wins came vs. relatively unknown Christian Mijares, Victor Terrazas, and Eric Morel - all former world champions but were arguably past their prime at the time they fought Santa Cruz. How will Santa Cruz fare in his first fight vs. a true top-level opponent in Mares? Mares comes into this fight with a clear advantage in both experience and quality of competition.
• Santa Cruz is the taller, naturally bigger fighter but will be fighting in only his 2nd fight as a featherweight, having just moved up from junior featherweight earlier this year. Mares has fought five fights at featherweight over the past two years and has won a world title at this weight class. 
• Mares is the technically superior fighter whose lone loss came via 1st round KO vs. a boxer with legitimate one-punch KO power (Jhonny Gonzalez). Santa Cruz - a volume puncher - does not have elite punching power, with only 17 of his 30 wins coming by TKO/KO. To win this fight, Santa Cruz will likely have to overwhelm Mares with an accumulation of punches as he does not have the power to change the course of the fight with one punch the same way Gonzalez did.
• Santa Cruz's high guard defense, while fairly effective, leaves him susceptible to body punching, something which Mares excels at. Santa Cruz's height advantage and propensity to fight on the inside may also work against him here as shorter fighters (as Mares is in this matchup) generally have more success to the body when fighting inside. 
• Although having a better chin and better defense than Mares, Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter who will inevitably get hit in his attempts to apply pressure. How will Santa Cruz's defense hold up vs. Mares, a more skilled, mobile fighter who can beat Santa Cruz to the punch with his faster hands? 
• Santa Cruz is used to controlling the tempo and applying pressure in his fights as he comes forward; in this fight he will (for the first time in his career) be facing another highly-skilled, former pound-for-pond ranked pressure fighter who may force him at times to fight off his back foot. How will Santa Cruz fare if Mares is successful pressuring him backwards towards the ropes? In previous fights, Santa Cruz has appeared uncomfortable when fighting off his back foot.

Positives for Mares

• Former IBF Bantamweight, WBC Super Bantamweight, and WBC Featherweight champion. Aggressive brawler with good boxing skills who just two years ago was undefeated and ranked #5 on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list before a 1st round KO loss to Jhonny Gonzales. Represented Mexico at the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
• Like Santa Cruz, is a high-volume pressure fighter, but is more versatile and has better boxing skills. Rough, physical fighter who is a very good body puncher and adept at brawling from the inside (including the use of questionably dirty veteran tricks) but has the ability to adjust and box from the outside if necessary (as shown in his 2nd fight vs. Joseph Agbeko). Is particularly effective with his jab and left hook.  
• Compared to Santa Cruz is the more established world-class fighter with a significant advantage in experience. Within the past five years has fought - and beaten - former world champions such as Vic Darchinyan, Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno, and Daniel Ponce De Leon. Lone loss was a 1st-round KO loss to power puncher Jhonny Gonzalez (for whom Mares used to be a sparring partner years ago) in August 2013; Mares is 3-0 since that KO loss. Mares is also the more experienced fighter at featherweight (this will only be Santa Cruz's 2nd fight at featherweight).
• Mares is the more talented, skilled boxer with better punching power and slightly quicker hands. Is also the more mobile figher who appears to be much more capable of fighting off his back foot (e.g., when being pressured). Mares is 3 inches shorter than Santa Cruz but his shorter height may be to his advantage if the fight turns into an inside brawl as many expect. (Shorter fighters have easier access to the body - particularly vs. a high guard defense like the one Santa Cruz has - and Mares is a very skilled body puncher.) 
• Other than the KO loss to Gonzalez, Mares has generally shown a good chin throughout his career. Other than the Gonzalez fight, Mares has only been knocked down once in his career - in the 2nd round of a December 2010 split-decision victory vs. former Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter and 3-division world champion Darchinyan.

Negatives for Mares

• Mares's most memorable fight was the 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez; Mares is 3-0 in the two years since that loss but all 3 wins were fairly unimpressive wins vs. lower quality opponents. Mares does not appear to be the same pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was prior to the loss to Gonzalez so unclear how we will perform stepping back up to face a higher quality opponent in Santa Cruz, who is arguably the toughest opponent to date in his career. Fighters are often more timid and cautious after suffering brutal KO losses, which appears to be the case with Mares.     
• As an inside pressure fighter Mares is highly susceptible to clean counter punching; statistically, Santa Cruz throws and lands more punches than anyone in boxing (and does so at a high connect percentage even going into middle and later rounds) so can easily see Mares wearing down vs. Santa Cruz's avalanche of punches as the fight progresses. Santa Cruz will inevitably have stretches of success landing vs. Mares - the question is how well Mares can withstand Santa Cruz's relentless attack. 
• Is considered by some to be one of the dirtiest fighters in boxing (if not the dirtiest fighter). Has been guilty of landing multiple low blows in fights, most notably in his 1st fight vs. Agbeko (a fight where many felt he should have been disqualified), as well as his fights vs. Darchinyan and Moreno. Mares has suffered point deductions in previous fights due to dirty tactics and will be prone to getting deducted points in tonight's fight vs. Santa Cruz, especially considering that Santa Cruz is a taller fighter who will be looking to fight inside vs. Mares. 
• Mares has more power than Santa Cruz but, like Santa Cruz, is not a big KO puncher; only 15 of Mares's 29 wins came via TKO/KO. If Mares is going to win this fight, it's very likely he'll have to win a decision.

Prefight Summary

There is a pretty good argument that most of the metrics for this fight favor Abner Mares. Mares is after all by far the more experienced boxer, having beaten a string of tough reigning or former world champions  over the course of a 2.5 year span to become a 3-division world champion and at one time a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. (Santa Cruz by comparison is notably unproven; tonight will be the first test in his career vs. a top-level opponent.)

Mares is also generally considered the more talented, skilled boxer with slightly greater punching power, quicker hands, and better foot movement. In reviewing previous fights, Mares appears to be a more savvy ring general than the sometimes mechanical Santa Cruz and is a particularly savvy fighter brawling from the inside, where many expect much of the action in this fight to take place. As mentioned previously, Mares's shorter height may prove to be a key advantage when he goes to the body vs. the taller Santa Cruz who, with his high guard defense, will leave his body exposed in spots. Mares is a veteran brawler with many tricks (both clean and a bit dirty) up his sleeve; while I don't think he has the punching power to beat the more durable, less battle-worn Santa Cruz by TKO/KO, I would not at all be surprised if he outboxes Santa Cruz en route to a decision victory.

But Mares hasn't looked impressive in his last 3 fights vs. B and C-level competition (despite having a 3-0 record in those 3 fights) and, at the end of the day, I don't see him withstanding Santa Cruz's relentless pressure and prolific work rate over the course of a 12-round fight that is likely to be more of a brawl than a boxing match. In this specific matchup I see Santa Cruz's energy and unmatched activity overwhelming Mares's skill and slight power and speed advantages, especially considering Mares's skills appear to have diminished a bit since his KO loss to Gonzalez. Mares, a defensively-lacking pressure fighter, will be right in front of Santa Cruz for much of the night and I don't like his chances vs. Santa Cruz's high-volume punch rate. Santa Cruz is the less experienced, less proven fighter in this matchup for sure but he has shown very good skill and surprising (given the number of punches he throws) accuracy in recent fights and appears more than ready for the step up to face higher-level opposition like Mares. Although fighting lesser-skilled opponents, Santa Cruz has generally looked impressive in recent fights while Mares - a brawler who has been in a lot of wars in recent years - hasn't looked quite the same since his 1st round KO loss to Gonzalez two years ago.

Despite perhaps still being the more skilled boxer with quicker hands, I don't think even an aggressive pressure fighter like Mares will have the punch output necessary to match Santa Cruz, whose work rate and stamina I think will largely stymie Mares's typically high-volume attack over the course of 12 rounds. I think Mares's loss to Gonzalez was the beginning of the end for Mares as a top-level boxer and that this fight will reveal further how his previously very highly regarded offensive skills have diminished.

I see Santa Cruz outworking Mares as the fight progresses (i.e., as Mares tires from foot movement and the accumulation of Santa Cruz punches) en route to a clear but competitive decision victory, with perhaps even an outside chance at a stoppage by Santa Cruz in the later rounds. Sorry to say but I also think that if this fight is close (which is a good possibility), even to the point of Mares slightly outboxing Santa Cruz, there is a good chance that the more "politically connected" fighter in Santa Cruz will be granted a controversial decision, especially considering that it will be tough for judges to overlook Santa Cruz's energy and high activity even if all the punches aren't landing.

So I like Santa Cruz's punch volume and durability over Mares's advantages in skill, power, and speed, especially when you consider that Mares's skills appear to have diminished in recent fights.

In any case, this is a classic matchup of two Mexican brawlers (think Barrera vs. Morales, Marquez vs.Vazquez, Corrales vs. Castillo, though Corrales was only half-Mexican) that has all the makings of a strong fight of the year candidate. On paper this is the best matchup PBC has offered in the nearly six months they've been broadcasting fights and I'm excited and intrigued to see how tonight's fight plays out!!! 

Prediction: Santa Cruz to win 

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