Ward vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 19, 2016
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA, IBF, and WBO Light Heavyweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Ward -165, Kovalev +155 (5 Dimes, 11/19/16)
Purse: Ward: $5 million, Kovalev: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #4 ranked light heavyweight; Kovalev: #2 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Neither fighter is very well known to sports fans who don't follow boxing closely, but to hardcore boxing fans this is without question the most anticipated fight of the year. This is only the third time in boxing history that two undefeated, Ring Magazine top five pound-for-pound boxers will face each other (other two times were Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Trinidad in 1999 and Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Meldrick Taylor in 1990). We have an Olympic gold medal-winning, master-class technician who hasn't lost a professional or amateur fight since he was 12 years old in Andre Ward moving up in weight to fight Sergey Kovalev, who along with Gennady "GGG" Golovkin is one of the two most feared power punchers in boxing with (very) underrated technical boxing skills and a cold-blooded killer instinct (after all, he has literally killed a man in the ring) to match potentially all-time great power.   

This is a classic matchup between a pure boxer in Ward - who many would say is one of the best boxers of this generation and could go down as one of the best boxers of all-time - vs. arguably the best power puncher in boxing in Kovalev. It is highly likely that the winner of this fight  between two future likely hall-of-famers will be widely considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport going forward.

Why Andre Ward will win

Although he's been relatively inactive over the past half decade (having fought an average of roughly once a year over this time period), Ward is still widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport (if not the best). He's an undefeated, master technician who hasn't lost a fight in his professional or amateur career since he was 12 years old. Ward went through an extended stretch in his career where the quality of his opposition was as tough as any other boxer (most notably Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament where he faced the likes of former world champions Carl Froch, Mikkel Kessler, and Arthur Abraham in their primes) and still won all of those fights with ease by wide margins. If Ward retired today, he would go down as one of the great super middleweight boxers of all time.

Ward is a technically brilliant, extremely versatile boxer who fights superbly both inside and from distance. Especially on the inside, many would consider Ward the best in the sport; he is adept at using his unmatched combination of athleticism, strength, and ring intelligence to smother and wear opponents down from close distance. This may serve him very well vs. Kovalev, who has shown susceptibility to getting hit to the body from inside and has a tendency to drop his guard when getting hit in that area.

Ward is a highly accurate lead puncher and counterpuncher who also fights very well from range; Ward is adept at throwing well-timed jabs (particularly from his dominant left hand) and is effective from fighting from either an orthodox or southpaw stance.

Whether fighting from range or inside, Ward has excellent footwork which he's used along with his physical strength and superior skills to dominate the pace of every fight he's ever fought in as a pro. Even Jean Pascal and Isaac Chilemba had success in spots landing vs. a defensively mediocre Kovalev (who's head movement at times is nonexistent) so Ward - who has a clear speed advantage in this matchup -  should be able to consistently land cleanly and outbox Kovalev if he can withstand or otherwise mitigate Kovalev's punching power.

Ward is an instinctual, very high IQ fighter who appears to be on the level of a Floyd Mayweather or Bernard Hopkins in terms of ability to read and adjust to his opponent's boxing style. Kovalev is an underrated technician who a couple of years ago gave (a 49 year-old but still very crafty) Hopkins by far the worst defeat of his career but Ward is the more intelligent and savvy boxer in this matchup.

Ward is also an elusive, defensively gifted fighter - even on the inside where he has an uncanny ability to dodge and counter power punches from close range. If Ward can keep this fight on the inside (where Kovalev is somewhat unproven and will have less success getting adding leverage to his punches), one would have to strongly favor Ward over the course of 12 rounds.

Although Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years and suffered through multiple injuries (including a debilitating, career-threatening right shoulder injury), at 32 years old Ward is arguably still in his prime and is actually the younger fighter in the matchup vs. a 33 year-old Kovalev.

Ward is moving up in weight to fight one of the most feared power punchers in the sport but he does have a very respectable chin, having been knocked down only once in his professional career (vs. Darnell Boone in the 7th fight of his career when he was only 21 years old). 

Minus the ultra-quick reflexes, Ward is arguably Mayweather-level in terms of boxing skill, ring IQ, and athleticism; *if* he can withstand Kovalev's power (which is obviously a major if), it's extremely difficult to not envision him outboxing Kovalev - who looked unimpressive in his most recent fight vs. Chilemba - over 12 rounds.

Why Sergey Kovalev will win

Like Ward, Kovalev is also undefeated and is the unified WBA, IBF, and IBO light heavyweight champion of the world. Kovalev is widely considered - along with fellow Soviet Gennady Golovkin - one of the top two power punchers in boxing today. Kovalev is a devastating puncher with outstanding power in both hands (complimented with excellent balance allowing him to get full leverage on many of his punches) to the extent where he doesn't necessarily have to land cleanly for opponents to feel his power. Of Kovalev's 30 wins, 26 (86.7%) have come by TKO/KO. Kovalev is on course to go down as one of the better power punchers in the history of the sport; as skilled as Ward is (and he is considered by many the most skilled fighter in boxing today) just one clean power punch landed by Kovalev could easily change the course of the fight.

Although primarily known as a power puncher, Kovalev is an very underrated technician who has proven time and again he has the world class boxing skills to match his punching power. Kovalev is a stalking, yet patient fighter who doesn't waste punches. He is a very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws both jabs and combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand. When punching, Kovalev uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his offensive attack. Kovalev is also a brutal body puncher, one of the best in the sport; even a defensively gifted Ward may have trouble stopping some of those body punches from landing when fighting inside.

Ward is considered a master technician but Kovalev has already faced and thoroughly outboxed another master technician in Bernard Hopkins - knocking Hopkins down once (in the 1st round of their fight) and winning all 12 rounds on all three judges scorecards after Hopkins went into survival mode after the knockdown. Kovalev does not have quite the experience nor has he faced the quality of opposition Ward has but - in addition to Hopkins - in recent years he's faced top-level opposition in former world champions Jean Pascal (twice), Nathan Cleverly, Gabriel Campillo, and Chilemba; with the exception of Chilemba all were soundly defeated by TKO/KO.

A key advantage Kovalev has is that this fight is taking place in the light heavyweight (175 lbs) division, a division where Kovalev has fought nearly his entire career and been champion for over three years. Ward was big and physically strong for a super middleweight (168 lbs) but he's moving up to fight at 175 pounds for only the third time in his career - the previous two being somewhat unimpressive unanimous decision victories vs. journeymen Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera - to face a fighter in Kovalev who has been dominant at that weight class for several years. There are *huge* question marks as to how well Ward's noted physical, clinching tactics inside will fare vs. a bigger opponent at a higher weight class and how well his respectable (though certainly not as devastating as Kovalev's) power carries up to light heavyweight.

Although slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years (due to multiple injuries and legal battles) and has looked somewhat rusty in recent fights; at 32 years old it may very easily be the case that Ward may not be the same quality of fighter at this point in his career as he was a few years ago when he was considered the #2 boxer pound-for-pound behind only Floyd Mayweather. In one of Ward's most recent fights, Barrera did have some success landing power punches with his right hand. And while Ward is known to be outstanding defensively, he is susceptible at times to getting hit given his proclivity for fighting from close distance. If Ward truly has lost a step and looks as rusty as he has in recent fights at 175, one would have to think Kovalev's power has a good chance of getting the stoppage within a 12 round fight where Ward will likely put himself within punching distance for large stretches.

Kovalev is not only (by far) the best puncher Ward has faced in his career - a career in which Ward has been knocked down and in trouble before against a lesser puncher in a lower weight class - he is also the most skilled boxer Ward has ever faced. Many have claimed Kovalev can not outbox Ward over 12 rounds - which may be true from a purely technical standpoint - but with Kovalev's combination of overwhelming power and underrated technical skill, it would not be surprising to see him win this fight by stoppage or by clear decision.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight is as difficult as any fight I've tried to predict on multiple levels. One one level it's difficult to say which style will prevail tonight - the technically superior, more experienced, master class in Ward with the clear hand and foot speed advantage who hasn't even come close to losing a fight since he was a preteen - or the elite power punching and very underrated boxing skill of a similarly undefeated Kovalev, who is the current unified champion and is defending his titles within his natural weight class. On another level it's equally difficult to predict which version of each of these boxers will show up tonight. Despite winning easily, Ward hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent bouts vs. B-level opponents, while Kovalev was also unimpressive and looked frustrated in spots during his most recent fight vs. Chilemba. The outcome of this fight will of course largely depend on which of these fighters is closer to their "A" game Saturday night.

As many boxing pundits have pointed out, this is as close to a true 50/50 as it gets with the level of skill and clash of styles involved in this matchup. I'll admit that I'm personally rooting for Ward - a highly intelligent boxer with strong moral character who has always carried himself with class - to win this fight.  If this was prime, vintage Andre Ward and/or we were dealing with a weight-drained Kovalev fighting Ward at Ward's usual 168-lb weight (a la a weight-drained Chad Dawson in his 2012 fight with Ward), I'd (perhaps strongly) favor Ward's technical superiority, speed, and inside fighting ability over Kovalev's overwhelming power.

But there are three key reasons why I - despite personally rooting for Ward - very slightly favor Kovalev in this matchup:

1) This fight is taking place at light heavyweight (175 lbs), not at super middleweight (168 lbs). This fight is at Kovalev's natural weight class - a weight class Ward moved up to just this year and has looked less than impressive in vs. forgettable opposition. This is only Ward's 3rd fight at 175 lbs, a weight class Kovalev has dominated for several years. I have doubts as to whether Ward will be able to impose his physical will - which he does so easily at 168 lbs - inside vs. a stronger, deadly power puncher like Kovalev at 175. I think Ward will find that he's in for a different fight vs. an elite 175-pound fighter than he's used to vs. elite 168-pound fighters. At 175 lbs, there is a question of how he will be able to handle the power of a true light heavyweight power puncher (who happens to be one of the top two power punchers in boxing) and how well Ward's own power at 168 lbs carries up to 175 lbs. The extra weight may also slow Ward down a bit, making him less fleet of foot. Ward is a big super middleweight who may have been outgrowing the 168 lb weight class anyway but the fact that this fight is taking place at 175 lbs is a clear advantage for Kovalev.

2) Ward is more likely than Kovalev to be off his game. Neither fighter has looked especially impressive in recent fights so it's tough to predict which version of each fighter will show up tonight. But I think Kovalev is a bit more likely to bring his top-level game than Ward. Although Ward is actually slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive (having fought only four times in the past four years), endured multiple surgeries (some to alleviate potentially career-threatening injuries), and - judging by his recent fights this year - seems to have lost a step from the pound-for-pound #2 Ward that dominated the Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament a few years ago. It's possible that this is simply Ward shaking off rust from inactivity, but it's also possible that this 32-year old version of Ward - after all the injuries and multiple extended layoffs - just isn't quite the fighter he used to be in his mid-twenties. If Ward is no longer the same A+-level performer we've come to expect from the Super Six World Boxing Classic fights and from his fight with Chad Dawson, then Kovalev certainly has a much greater chance of pulling off an upset at a weight class Ward still appears to be getting accustomed to.

3) Ward will likely stay within range of Kovalev's power for significant stretches of the fight. Ward has a very respectable chin (having been knocked down only once in his professional career) but Kovalev is by far the most effective power puncher he's faced in his career with significantly more power than he's used to facing at 168 lbs. Ward likes to fight from close range inside - which often works to smother an opponent's punches and mitigate power  - but the close range will nevertheless give Kovalev ample opportunity to setup his (usually lethal) offensive attack to the body and head. All it would take is one clean punch from Kovalev over the course of 12 rounds to change the fight; if Ward stays within punching range as expected I believe Kovalev will be effective enough to land multiple shots and at times overwhelm Ward with his power.

Even at this stage of his career Ward is such a gifted, crafty fighter that it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he ended up heavily frustrating Kovalev with elusiveness and skill and won every round of the fight. Ward is, in my opinion, a historically great talent who certainly has the ability to outbox Kovalev. But I believe this version of Ward isn't quite the same Ward we remember from a few years ago and that Kovalev - who possesses high-level technical skills in his own right (skills that are being overlooked and underrated by many) - will catch and overwhelm Ward with his power at this weight class.

The question if Kovalev wins this fight is whether he wins by his customary stoppage or by decision. Kovalev's most recent fight vs. Chilemba -  a fighter in many ways similar in style to Ward - went the full 12 rounds. Kovalev's fight a couple of years ago vs. master boxing technician Hopkins also ended in a 12-round decision. Ward is certainly crafty and elusive enough to last 12 rounds (as Chilemba and Hopkins did) if he chooses; but - unlike Chilemba or Hopkins - I don't see Ward retreating and fighting off his back foot in this matchup. Ward has much more of a proclivity than those two fighters to attack inside and I think he will stick with that tactic - even at the risk of getting knocked out. (Kovalev's power is also greater from distance which I think will further encourage Ward to get past Kovalev's stiff jab and stay inside for stretches in an attempt to somewhat mitigate his power.) But I think Ward's close range tactics will provide ample opportunities for Kovalev to pepper Ward with power punches and get the stoppage.

At almost 2.5-1 odds, I think Kovalev by TKO/KO (+249) is the best bet for this fight. But given the unpredictability of this clash of styles and given Ward's technical superiority and still elite skills, I would hedge this bet with an equal amount of money on Ward by 12 round decision - which can still be found at approximately even money (+100) odds. Certainly looking forward to this fight!!!  

Prediction: Kovalev to win

Recommended bets: 1) Kovalev by TKO/KO (1 unit)
2) Ward by 12 round decision (1 unit)

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Canelo vs. Khan: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez -475, Khan +420 (5 Dimes, 5/7/16)
Purse: Alvarez: $3.5 million, Khan: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Khan: #2 ranked welterweight
Style: Canelo: Orthodox, Khan: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Khan is (by far) the biggest fight of the year thus far and is the first boxing event at MGM Resorts' brand new T-Mobile Arena, which just opened in April. This will be Canelo's first middleweight title defense after defeating Miguel Cotto last November for the WBC, Ring Magazine, and lineal middleweight titles. Will this fight be the precursor to a megafight with Gennady Golovkin later this year or early 2017? Can Canelo decisively defeat a fighter in Khan who - by most accounts - is the more technically skilled fighter with a clear hand and foot speed advantage? In the recent past, Canelo has had issues with mobile fighters like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara; Khan is generally considered quicker than both.

This is the first PPV fight for Khan and stands a good chance of being the defining fight of his career; can Khan become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? If Khan beats Canelo, he would become only the 2nd boxer to win a lineal championship in his first fight after jumping up two divisions (Duran) - that would be an extremely impressive feat even considering the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 155 lbs.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

There are many reasons why Canelo is around a 5-1 favorite to win this fight.

Canelo is the younger, stronger boxer (and in fact is likely the strongest boxer Khan has ever faced) facing a boxer in Khan who has a notorious history of chin (as well as other fundamental defensive) problems resulting in him being knocked down and/or knocked out multiple times by lesser punchers than Canelo. Canelo is the naturally bigger boxer fighting in a weight range he is comfortable at (150-155 lbs) and has been fighting at for over five years while Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight at 155 lbs for the first time after fighting his entire career at 140 and 147. Khan has pretty good power but how his power will translate after moving up two weight classes is a huge question mark, especially against a bigger fighter like Canelo who has proven to have a very good chin. (Canelo has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.)

Canelo is in his prime and appears to still be improving with each fight. Although known and marketed as a big puncher, Canelo is a (very) high IQ, skilled boxer who, per CompuBox statistics, is one of the most efficient fighters in the sport. He is a patient, but highly accurate puncher who throws combination punches in particular very well. Canelo is also an excellent body puncher who will likely make it a point to attack Khan's body throughout the course of the fight. Khan is very mobile but it will be nearly impossible for him to elude Canelo's aggressive accuracy and power for a full 12 rounds - especially given his penchant for staying at inside distance a bit too long while executing his quick combinations.

Canelo cuts off the ring pretty well for someone not too fleet of foot (he had success cutting off the ring vs. Lara in spots) and, while not quite as fast as Khan, has very underrated hand speed.

No one would consider Canelo a defensive wizard but his defense - in particular his upper body and head movement - have noticeably improved in recent fights. Canelo has also never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, which has included many fights vs. boxers much bigger and stronger than Khan. It's tough to envision Khan - who is fighting at middleweight for the first time in his career after spending his entire career at junior welterweight and welterweight - posing a threat to Canelo in terms of punching power.

On Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas, the crowd at the new T-Mobile Arena will be decidedly pro-Canelo, which could influence the fight inside the ring (i.e., inspiration for Canelo to fight well in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd) and the judging outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being much more competitive than expected (which is highly possible given Khan's outstanding offensive skill and advantage in speed) don't be at all surprised to see the fight still scored comfortably for Canelo. 

Why Amir Khan will win

Despite the clear strength and size discrepancies, Khan does have some advantages over Canelo which could lead to an upset.

Khan is a very gifted offensive fighter with some of the fastest hands in boxing. He is considered by many to be the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup and enters tonight's fight vs. Canelo with a clear hand and foot speed advantage. Khan does have a well documented history of chin problems - 2 of his 3 losses have come via early round KO to fighters who were considered significant underdogs - but his defensive discipline and movement appear to have at least improved a bit in the 3.5 years he's trained under Virgil Hunter. If Khan can move intelligently and maintain range vs. Canelo through 12 rounds, he has a strong chance of outboxing Canelo with his speed and winning the fight on points.

Khan has arguably never been outboxed in his professional career, with all of his losses coming by either early round KO (Breidis Prescott, Danny Garcia) or by a very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (Lamont Peterson). If Khan keeps the fight outside at a manageable distance, I'd expect the generally high-output, jab-happy Khan to outwork the relatively low-output, patient Canelo with his advantages in speed, reach (Khan possesses a slight 1/2" reach advantage), and skill.

Like Canelo, Khan is also an accurate puncher who attacks the body very well; Canelo has experienced stamina issues in the past and is prone to taking stretches of rounds off as a pacing mechanism so if Khan can effectively attack Canelo's body, he could weaken Canelo's punching power in the later rounds, where many are expecting Canelo to catch up to Khan and knock him out.

As an experienced and (arguably) more skilled boxer, no one should be surprised if there are large stretches of tonight's fight where Khan flat-out outboxes Canelo - especially in the early rounds. Canelo's defense has improved in recent fights but an ultra-quick offensive talent like Khan likely won't find it too difficult (as a comparatively quick Mayweather didn't) in spots to land punches vs. a somewhat flat-footed Canelo.

Although no longer undefeated or considered a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer (as he was a few years ago when he was a unified junior welterweight champion and defended his title five times over the course of two years), at age 29 Khan is still in his prime and still one of the best offensive fighters in the sport. Khan has nearly always jumped out to wide early leads due to his unique combination of skill and speed; the question in this fight is simply whether he (and his very questionable chin) will be able to elude danger for a full 12 rounds vs. a bigger, stronger, top-level power puncher in Canelo - especially given that he's jumped up two weight classes and fighting for the first time as a middleweight.

Win or lose, Khan always fights with tremendous heart and determination (though this is sometimes to his detriment, as clearly seen in the fights he's lost by KO). Tonight's fight is by far the biggest of Khan's career - it's his first PPV fight, biggest payday, and first fight where he's coming in as the underdog so everyone watching should expect an extremely focused, highly determined Khan in the ring Saturday night. 

Prefight Analysis

If chin and size weren't an issue, I'd probably take Khan to win this fight.

I generally agree with the sentiment that Khan has never been outboxed and think that, while Canelo's hand speed is underrated, Khan should be able to consistently beat Canelo to the punch and stay out of range vs. the relatively slow-footed Canelo and his dangerous punching power. Canelo has sometimes had trouble cutting off the ring vs. more mobile opponents; there's a good possibility he'll have similar problems vs. Khan, who is likely the fastest opponent he's ever faced. 

Khan's defensive deficiencies notwithstanding, if Khan stays out of the corner of the ring (where he is at much greater risk of getting pummeled) and picks the right spots to throw his quick combinations he can outwork and outpoint the at times low-volume and overly patient Canelo. Again, the question would be how much success Khan will have eluding Canelo's pressure and accurate punching power for 12 rounds.

Though I believe Khan to be an elite offensive fighter with overall better skills than Canelo, there are several reasons why I strongly favor Canelo to win this fight. Firstly, the size disparity will be too much for Khan to overcome. Khan is moving up two weight classes to fight for the first time as a middleweight; while the weight jump is effectively only eight pounds (147 lbs to 155 lbs), there is expected to be a wide size discrepancy between Khan and the naturally bigger Canelo (who typically balloons to well over 170 lbs) on fight night. Canelo will be (by far) the biggest fighter and strongest puncher Khan has ever fought, while it is doubtful Khan's solid power at 147 lbs will translate well at the higher weight class vs. a fighter in Canelo who has already proven his chin vs. bigger fighters than Khan. There is also a question of how Khan's speed - his primary advantage in the fight - will be affected by the higher weight.

Secondly Khan's chin will likely mot be able to elude Canelo - one of the more accurate and efficient punchers in the sport - for 12 rounds. Khan has been knocked out in early rounds vs. lesser punchers at junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs); there's little reason to think Khan won't suffer the same - or even a worse - fate vs. a bigger, stronger power puncher in Canelo. Khan's defense does appear to have improved a bit in his 3.5 years under trainer Virgil Hunter (e.g., he's decreased exposure to his chin by staying off the ropes more and spending less time inside throwing the multi-punch combinations that put him in poor defensive positions) but it should also be noted that Khan's chin hasn't really been tested in recent fights - he hasn't faced a good puncher since fighting Julio Diaz four fights ago in 2013; Khan won a close decision in that fight but Diaz did score a 4th round knockdown.

Sure, Canelo has had difficulty with faster fighters in the recent past, most notably Mayweather and Lara, but Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of the sport and Lara is one of the best defensive fighters today. Both Mayweather and Lara are elite, high IQ boxers who understanding spacing and were able to elude Canelo with their length and vertical movement even while at close range. Khan is actually faster than both Mayweather and Lara but does not move as well or have the defensive IQ of either fighter. Khan still has issues with staying inside a bit too long and still has subpar upper body movement, meaning he'll likely be easier to hit when Canelo (inevitably) catches up to him. In recent fights, Khan has sometimes been able to avoid pressure by clinching or pushing off on his opponents - it will be much tougher to do this vs. a bigger opponent in Canelo.

In his most recent fight, Khan surprisingly even had issues defensively vs. the soft-punching Chris Algieri at welterweight so tough to see Khan not having a much worse time of it vs. one of the better punchers in the sport.

Even if Khan is somehow able to maintain distance vs. Canelo and box effectively with him for 12 rounds, there is still the issue of whether Khan will get a fair score as the "B-side" of the boxing promotion on Cinco De Mayo weekend in front of a largely Mexican/Mexican-American crowd. Khan throws a lot of punches and could outwork the typically low-volume Canelo but - fair or not - Canelo has a judge-friendly style due largely to his aggression and tendency to land clean, accurate power punches. So even if Khan outboxes Canelo (which is a possibility), there is a decent chance Canelo still gets the decision.

But given Khan's size deficiency, chin issues, and fundamental defensive flaws, I don't see this fight going 12 rounds anyway. I expect Canelo to eventually figure out Khan's timing, catch up to him in the mid to late rounds, and score a TKO/KO victory vs. an opponent who's perhaps bit off a bit more than he can chew by moving up to middleweight to fight Canelo.

Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO (1.5 units)

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Mayweather vs. Berto: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (48-0, 26 KOs) vs. Andre Berto (30-3, 23 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World and WBA Super World Welterweight titles
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -2400, Berto +1800 (5 Dimes, 9/12/15)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million, Berto: $4 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion, Berto: Not ranked
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Berto: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Mayweather opened in late July as a massive -7500 (1-75) favorite, with Berto initially listed as a 25-1 underdog. Public betting has since trended heavily in favor of Berto - likely because the initial odds were poor for potential Mayweather bettors (e.g., would have to bet $75 on Mayweather just to win $1), while 25-1 for a puncher like Berto may have been appealing to some. In the first few days of fight week, however, most of the betting has been on Mayweather. Mayweather is currently a strong -2400 favorite, with Berto as a +1800 (18-1) underdog.

Why Floyd Mayweather will win

By most objective measures, this fight is a clear mismatch. Mayweather is undefeated, widely considered the best boxer pound-for-pound in the sport and of this generation facing a fighter in Berto who is 3-3 in his last six fights and arguably not even one of the top 20 welterweights in the world currently.

Mayweather - possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport - is vastly superior to the defensively suspect Berto in terms of skill and boxing IQ. Mayweather is expected to land cleanly and consistently as the fight progresses while there's a good chance Berto will have trouble getting into range vs. the longer, more mobile Mayweather.

Mayweather has a clear experience advantage over Berto; in his career he's already beaten at least a dozen boxers who were better fighters than Berto (including arguably every fighter he's fought since 2005) and has decisively beaten 2 out of the 3 fighters Berto has lost to (Robert Guerrero and Victor Ortiz). Berto on the other hand, has never beaten a A or even a B+-level fighter, with his best win coming in a closely contested matchup vs. Luis Collazo over five years ago.

Mayweather is a defensively gifted fighter who has the foot speed, reach advantage (4"), and stamina to elude Berto's dangerous combination of power and speed the same way he's eluded previous opponents who had more power and speed than Berto has. Berto is over six years younger than Mayweather but, at 31 years old and after multiple debilitating injuries (including a right shoulder injury that could have been career ending), his best years may be behind him. Berto has been a seemingly more cautious fighter since the shoulder injury a couple years ago, which he can't afford to be in tonight's fight vs. Floyd.

Berto did win his last fight via 6th round TKO in March vs. a respectable opponent in Josesito Lopez, but was actually behind on two out of the three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage.

Lastly Mayweather, a Las Vegas resident, is fighting at home in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the 12th consecutive time in front of a Mayweather-friendly referee (Kenny Bayless) on a card promoted by his promotional company (Mayweather Promotions) and in front of a crowd which may actually be pro-Mayweather (which is uncharacteristic for Mayweather fights) considering the relatively undistinguished opponent he's facing.

Why Andre Berto will win

A former two-time welterweight champion and current interim WBA welterweight champion, Berto is a puncher with the classic "puncher's chance." At 32 years old (6.5 years younger than Mayweather), he still actually has quite a bit of the explosive speed and power in both hands that he had five years ago as an undefeated (27-0) world champion. Berto is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter, possesses the mobility to stalk Mayweather, and is a good ambush-style fighter when he is on his game.

Berto is a tough competitor who is known for high action fights. He'll likely be willing to exchange with Mayweather and take the risks necessary to pull off the upset, even if it means exposing himself to numerous clean Mayweather counterpunches and a possible loss by stoppage.

Berto won't win this fight by decision (i.e., by outboxing the supremely-skilled Mayweather); he'll almost surely have to win this fight by stopping Mayweather. But if Berto - who has the strength and hand speed to match Mayweather - can stay busy and apply brute pressure on Floyd, he is more than capable of landing one of his patented power shots (most notably his right uppercut) to change the course of a fight expected to be dictated by Mayweather. Berto does have a solid left jab which, if used effectively, can be used to set up additional lines of attack vs. a typically risk-averse, retreating Mayweather. Mayweather is obviously still an elite fighter, but - at 38 - he's several years past his prime and is not as mobile as he once was; Berto may be capable of staying in front of Mayweather and applying the pressure necessary to at least make Floyd uncomfortable (e.g., Marcos Maidana in his first fight with Floyd, Ricky Hatton in the early rounds of his fight with Floyd).

Berto's current trainer, Virgil Hunter, is an excellent motivator who will at minimum have Berto mentally prepared to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in boxing history.

Prefight Analysis

Honestly, I don't see Berto being competitive in this fight. Yes, he has a "puncher's chance," but so did Pacquiao, Maidana, Canelo, and many of the other fighters Mayweather has fought over the past decade or so. But they all lost. And Berto - especially at this point in his career with the injuries and being 3-3 in his last 6 fights - isn't as good as *any* of the those other boxers Mayweather has fought over the past ten years.

Berto is literally a handpicked opponent for Mayweather in a fight that Mayweather is promoting as his last fight. Mayweather is, by a very wide margin, the more skilled, experienced fighter who possesses both the length and foot speed to stay out of range vs. Berto's inevitable pressure and the accuracy to punish the defensively deficient Berto with counterpunching over the entirety of the fight.

Unless Berto catches Mayweather with something early I don't see him being competitive, as he certainly won't outbox Floyd over 12 rounds; he doesn't cut the ring off as well as other pressure fighters who've fought Floyd like Maidana and Cotto, who at least had some limited success pressuring him in spots.

In my opinion, the only question in tonight's fight is whether Mayweather wins the fight by decision or by stoppage. There has been a lot of talk from boxing analysts - and even some from Mayweather himself - of Floyd going out with a stoppage victory in what is purportedly his last fight. But Mayweather has promised excitement and possible stoppages in previous recent fights only to resort to the risk-averse, defensive style that has served him well for most of his career.

The fact of the matter is, Mayweather is 38 years old and, other than a cheap (though perfectly legal) shot vs. Victor Ortiz four years ago when Ortiz had his guard down, Mayweather hasn't stopped anyone in nearly eight years. Mayweather is also a relatively low-volume puncher with notoriously brittle hands who is facing a guy in Berto who is actually bigger and stronger than he is.

Yes, a Mayweather victory by TKO/KO is possible due to the wide skill disparity in this matchup and Berto's defensive inadequacies, but I think given Mayweather's history of fighting conservatively and not exposing himself to significant risk, there is much more value in betting on Mayweather to win by (wide) decision.

Depending on the prices you can find, I feel that the best bet on this fight is Mayweather by unanimous decision, followed by Mayweather by 12-round decision. (I bet Mayweather by unanimous decision yesterday on 5Dimes at -145 but feel this bet actually has solid value up to -200.)

Prediction: Mayweather by unanimous decision (1 unit)

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Khan vs. Alexander: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Amir Khan (29-3-0, 19 KOs) vs. Devon Alexander (26-2-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: December 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Silver Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Khan -265, Alexander +245 (5 Dimes, 12/13/14)
Purse: Khan: $950,000, Alexander: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Khan - #9 ranked welterweight, Alexander - #10 ranked welterweight
Style: Khan: Orthodox, Alexander: Southpaw
Referee: Robert Byrd

Positives for Khan
Negatives for Khan
Positives for Alexander
Negatives for Alexander
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Khan

• Former two-time light welterweight champion and Olympic silver medalist (Athens, 2004). Offensively gifted fighter who has arguably the fastest hands in boxing. His lightning quick hand speed combined with his accuracy and power makes him a very effective combination puncher in particular. Khan's quickness allows him to throw to throw a wide range of punches effectively from a variety of angles, generally making his attack unpredictable. In terms of offensive talent, is likely one of the top five boxers in the sport. 
• Similar to Manny Pacquiao, Khan is a very good ambush fighter (i.e., is adept at jumping in on his opponents and using his hand speed to land clean combinations, then using his foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter). Khan also has an excellent jab from distance; per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed per round.  
• Overall very athletic boxer with great speed (both in his hands and feet) and high punch volume. (Per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of overall punches landed per round.) Has arguably never truly been outboxed in pro career, losing only due to TKO/KO (as he did vs. Breidis Prescott and Danny Garcia) or very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (as he did vs. Lamont Peterson).
• Very experienced fighter. Khan has fought current and former world champions such as Marcos Antonio Barrera, Paulie Malignaggi, Marcos Maidana, Zab Judah, Lamont Peterson, and Danny Garcia; among these lost only to Peterson (in a very controversial split decision in Peterson's home town) and Garcia (in a fight where he was clearly outboxing Garcia before getting knocked down) while beating defeating the others decisively. Despite his good experience, Khan is only 28 years old and arguably still very much in the prime of his career.  
• Somewhat reckless fighter in the past who's shown a bit more discipline under Virgil Hunter, who's trained him for his last three fights. Looked especially impressive in his most recent fight vs. former WBA welterweight champion Luis Collazo, scoring three knockdowns in a wide unanimous decision victory. 
• British-Pakistani fighter who is very popular both in his native United Kingdom and in Pakistan. British fans travel to see his fights in the United States and, with his fan-friendly boxing style, Khan will likely have the majority of the crowd supporting him at in his fight vs. Alexander.
• Fights with tremendous heart and will to win, though this is sometimes to his detriment (as clearly seen in the fights he's lost, most notably vs. Garcia). Will be a very determined fighter vs. Alexander as he sees the fight as a path to setting up a big PPV fight early next year vs. Floyd Mayweather.

Negatives for Khan

• Khan's glaring weakness has always been his chin. Khan has been knocked down at least eight times in his pro career, including twice in his KO loss vs. Prescott and three times in his TKO loss vs. Garcia. His chin has also led to fights being closer than expected, such as his close but decisive win in December 2010 vs. Maidana and his fight last year vs. Julio Diaz. Khan was caught with left hooks in both of his TKO/KO losses vs. Prescott and Garica and in his most recent knockdown vs. Diaz. With his weak chin, Khan is prone to getting knocked out at any time by any boxer with above average punching power. 
• Fairly poor defensive fighter. Often fights with his hands down, doesn't move his head well, and doesn't move on his feet well defensively (i.e., is adept at jumping in on opponents with an offensive attack but sometimes stays inside too long and doesn't move well enough on his feet to evade his opponents' counter punches). Is working to improve defensive skills under new trainer Virgil Hunter but in this regard is still a work in progress.
• Was on the cusp of becoming an elite fighter (was as recently as three years ago ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound Top 10 in the world) and future boxing superstar before his chin and defensive liabilities were exposed. Unquestionable talent in terms of his boxing skills and athleticism but has questionable boxing IQ due to the defensive flaws mentioned above and occasional recklessness in the ring (though he has shown better discipline under Virgil Hunter). Despite nearly always outboxing his opponents, is very prone to making basic mistakes that can quickly swing the fight in his opponent's favor. 
• Is Khan still a top contender? Fought well in his most recent fight vs. Collazo but barely escaped a solid but journeyman fighter in Julio Diaz his previous fight in April 2013, including suffering a knockdown. (Some felt Diaz earned the draw or even won the fight outright.) Did beat a solid B+-level fighter in Carlos Molina in December 2012 but lost his two fights vs. top-level boxers prior to that (Peterson and Garcia). 
• Excellent fighter from distance and when jumping in to throw combinations but doesn't fight well when backing up. More of a finesse than physical fighter who is backed into corners easily at times.
• In Devon Alexander, Khan is facing arguably the toughest opponent of a career in which he's already suffered three losses. 
• Khan has very good punching power but his power is arguably overrated. His last TKO/KO victory was a 5th round TKO over three years ago in his July 2011 fight vs. Zab Judah.
• With his ambition to become a boxing superstar, Khan has, by his own admission, sometimes overlooked opponents. There have been indications Khan is overlooking his upcoming fight with Alexander and already possibly looking forward to a big money fight early next year vs. Mayweather.

Positives for Alexander

• Former world champion at light welterweight and welterweight. Slick, very good all-around boxer with solid technical skills. Tough, gritty southpaw who possesses one of the best chins in boxing; Alexander has never been knocked out and only been knocked down once in his professional career (in his win vs. Lucas Matthysse in June 2011), despite facing some of the more highly regarded power punchers in boxing like Matthysse, Marcos Maidana, and Randall Bailey. 27 years old and still in the prime of his career.
• Accurate and effective puncher - particularly with his right hand where his right uppercut and right hook are his best punches. Possesses good speed and is adept at throwing short, quick combinations. Has a good work rate in terms of punch volume and moves well around the ring. 
• Not as quick or fast as Khan but arguably more skilled, has higher boxing IQ, and a much better chin. Has beaten three notorious power punchers in Matthysse, Maidana, and Bailey (all of who hit harder than Khan) so Alexander likely won't have trouble with Khan's power. Won every round on two out of three judges' scorecards in his fight vs. Maidana, a fighter who earlier this year gave #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather his toughest fight in years.
• Has only lost two fights in his professional career, both competitive fights to then undefeated fighters (Timothy Bradley in January 2011 and Shawn Porter in December 2013). Both losses were to highly aggressive fighters who roughed Alexander up on the inside; Khan is more of a finesse fighter who will try beat Alexander with his speed from the outside, jumping in only occasionally. 
• Alexander's punching power isn't great but is underrated. Defeated then light welterweight champion and tough-chinned Colombian Juan Urango by 8th round TKO, Urango's only loss by TKO/KO. Had the notoriously tough Maidana in trouble in the 6th round of their February 2012 fight.
• Unlike Khan is a very disciplined, poised fighter who doesn't get thrown off his game plan in tough situations. 

Negatives for Alexander

• Has underrated power but his power certainly isn't great. Khan's main weakness is his chin but he likely won't have to worry about getting knocked out by Alexander; Alexander hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 4.5 years.  
• Has very good quickness and speed but is not as quick or fast as Khan. Alexander is used to having a speed advantage in his fights but Khan will have the clear speed advantage here. 
• Solid technical fighter but has a rigid, somewhat predictable style. While Alexander has been competitive in all his fights, his style lacks an element of surprise quality which may hurt him vs. a quicker fighter like Khan.
• Alexander has a great right hand but is not as effective with his left hand. In getting knocked down/knocked out, Khan has shown he is particularly susceptible to the left hook; Khan will have little to worry about with Alexander's left hook, which lacks real KO power.  
• If Alexander beats Khan, Khan will be the toughest fighter he has beaten. Alexander has never been considered an elite figher; he's beaten highly regarded Argentinean boxers Matthysse and Maidana (both in his hometown area of St. Louis, Missouri) but lost both times he stepped up to fight a top-level fighter away from home. 
• Khan's only losses have come vs. pressure fighters or fighters with true KO power (i.e., fighters who've negated Khan's speed with their physical strength). Alexander is more of a counter puncher than a pressure fighter and perhaps doesn't have the physical strength advantage to mitigate Khan's speed advantage. Alexander doesn't fight as well on the inside as he does from range, a weakness that largely contributed to the only two losses of his pro career (vs. Bradley and Porter).   
• Despite having a great chin, Alexander does have some defensive flaws. As shown in the Bradley and Porter fights, Alexander sometimes doesn't react to inside pressure well and generally doesn't fight well against the ropes. Would expect Khan, with his quickness and accuracy, to be effective in stretches applying pressure vs. Alexander with combination punches and jabs.

Summary

This is an intriguing fight as it is a battle between two very good, highly regarded boxers who very early in their careers reached the cusp of greatness but weren't able to break through into the ranks of the elite. Both Khan and Alexander have had setbacks in their careers but a win here could put one of them back on track to being considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Both fighters are aware there's a lot at stake; the winner of this fight would also be widely considered the most likely next opponent for Floyd Mayweather next year if Mayweather's negotiations with Manny Pacquiao don't work out.

Despite being an over 2 to 1 underdog, Alexander does have a real shot to win this fight. Even in his two losses, Alexander has always been competitive. Alexander is a very intelligent, disciplined with some top-level skills who should have success in spots landing his quick right hand and short combination punches vs. the defensively flawed Khan. Although Devon is not a pressure fighter by nature, if he can impose his physical strength and rough Khan up on the inside, this fight will be a lot closer than people think - to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if Devon pulled off the upset. And Devon does have underrated power to compliment his good hand speed; Khan has suffered TKO/KO losses to much slower fighters than Alexander so if Devon loads up and clips Khan flush with one of his quick right uppercuts or hooks a stoppage is certainly conceivable given Khan's unreliable chin.

There are good reasons to side with Alexander but I think Khan's speed will carry him to a clear victory on tonight's fight. Alexander is also a speedy fighter for sure but Khan is a level faster; I believe Khan will be successful in using his speed to get his punches off before Devon can land his. Devon does have one of the better chins in boxing but he's not the best fighters defensively; I expect Khan to land his long jab and patented combination punches consistently throughout the 12-round fight. Devon may catch Khan occasionally on counter punches but he doesn't have the power or the inside fighting skill to apply the pressure to Khan that's led to all his previous losses. I see this fight going the distance in a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory for Khan. If Khan looks impressive in this fight, it would give me even more reason to believe his speed and volume punching would give even Floyd Mayweather serious problems if they were to fight next year (which would be likely if the Pacquiao fight doesn't get made).

Prediction: Khan by decision