Fight: Sergey Kovalev (26-0-1, 23 KOs) vs. Jean Pascal (29-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: March 14, 2015
Weight class: Light heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Kovalev -735, Pascal +590 (5 Dimes, 3/14/15)
Purse: Kovalev: $3.24 million, Pascal: $2.76 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Kovalev: #1 ranked light heavyweight, Pascal: #3 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Kovalev: Orthodox, Pascal: Orthodox
Referee: Luis Pabon
Positives for Kovalev
Negatives for Kovalev
Positives for Pascal
Negatives for Pascal
Summary/Prediction
Positives for Kovalev
- Undefeated boxer (26-0-1) and current unified WBA Super, IBF, and WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round of an August 2011 fight.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. Is coming off the best win of his career in a wide unanimous decision victory vs. all-time great Bernard Hopkins last November. 31 years old and currently in the prime of his career.
- Is up there with Gennady Golovkin as one of the most feared men in boxing. Out of his 26 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by TKO/KO. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.) In 27 fights only four fighters have gone more than four rounds vs. Kovalev, with only one (Hopkins) going more than eight rounds.
- Although known primarily as a power puncher Kovalev has underrated boxing skills, as shown in his most recent fight where he outboxed and thoroughly dominated a master class boxer in Hopkins. (The loss was by far the most lopsided loss in Hopkins' career.) Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fights vs. Hopkins and Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport. Cuts off the ring well and will be the technically superior boxer vs. Pascal.
- Kovalev is the slightly younger, naturally bigger, stronger, and taller fighter with a longer reach in this matchup vs. Pascal.
- Kovalev doesn't have quite the top-level experience Pascal has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. Kovalev's most recent fight was a dominant victory vs. Hopkins, an all-time great who at the time was the unified WBA Super and IBF light heavyweight champion. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents prior to Hopkins was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world light heavyweight champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo.
- Undefeated boxer (26-0-1) and current unified WBA Super, IBF, and WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round of an August 2011 fight.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. Is coming off the best win of his career in a wide unanimous decision victory vs. all-time great Bernard Hopkins last November. 31 years old and currently in the prime of his career.
- Is up there with Gennady Golovkin as one of the most feared men in boxing. Out of his 26 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by TKO/KO. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.) In 27 fights only four fighters have gone more than four rounds vs. Kovalev, with only one (Hopkins) going more than eight rounds.
- Although known primarily as a power puncher Kovalev has underrated boxing skills, as shown in his most recent fight where he outboxed and thoroughly dominated a master class boxer in Hopkins. (The loss was by far the most lopsided loss in Hopkins' career.) Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fights vs. Hopkins and Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport. Cuts off the ring well and will be the technically superior boxer vs. Pascal.
- Kovalev is the slightly younger, naturally bigger, stronger, and taller fighter with a longer reach in this matchup vs. Pascal.
- Kovalev doesn't have quite the top-level experience Pascal has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. Kovalev's most recent fight was a dominant victory vs. Hopkins, an all-time great who at the time was the unified WBA Super and IBF light heavyweight champion. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents prior to Hopkins was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world light heavyweight champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo.
Negatives for Kovalev
- While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't quite at the level of Pascal, who has fought top-level opponents such as Carl Froch, Chad Dawson, Bernard Hopkins (twice), and Lucian Bute. Kovalev has yet to face an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism.
- Kovalev has only gone past eight rounds once in his professional career (his most recent fight vs. Hopkins), and has only been past the fourth round five times. While Kovalev fought very well in the late rounds of his most recent fight vs. Hopkins, Kovalev's stamina and ability remain untested in later rounds vs. an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism so will be interesting to see how he fares if this fight goes into later rounds.
- Kovalev possesses average speed; he will be at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage vs. Pascal.
- Kovalev's chin is still a question mark; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including a recent (August 2014) fight vs. Blake Caparello. In Pascal he will be fighting arguably the strongest fighter he's faced in his career - a fighter who, like Kovalev, has very good power in both hands. Kovalev has been knocked down and/or hurt multiple times in his career by opponents with less power than Pascal.
- Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is somewhat flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in him dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Pascal will likely try to take advantage of. Unlike Hopkins, Pascal has solid counter punching power in both hands that Kovalev will have to respect. If Pascal wins the fight it will likely be due in large part to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes with this power, combined with good movement and hand speed (though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power).
- Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter. Pascal is a fairly good fighter from the inside; it'll be interesting to see if Pascal is successful at getting inside and using his advantages in athleticism and hand speed to outwork Kovalev from inside and limit Kovalev's power from range.
- While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't quite at the level of Pascal, who has fought top-level opponents such as Carl Froch, Chad Dawson, Bernard Hopkins (twice), and Lucian Bute. Kovalev has yet to face an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism.
- Kovalev has only gone past eight rounds once in his professional career (his most recent fight vs. Hopkins), and has only been past the fourth round five times. While Kovalev fought very well in the late rounds of his most recent fight vs. Hopkins, Kovalev's stamina and ability remain untested in later rounds vs. an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism so will be interesting to see how he fares if this fight goes into later rounds.
- Kovalev possesses average speed; he will be at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage vs. Pascal.
- Kovalev's chin is still a question mark; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including a recent (August 2014) fight vs. Blake Caparello. In Pascal he will be fighting arguably the strongest fighter he's faced in his career - a fighter who, like Kovalev, has very good power in both hands. Kovalev has been knocked down and/or hurt multiple times in his career by opponents with less power than Pascal.
- Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is somewhat flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in him dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Pascal will likely try to take advantage of. Unlike Hopkins, Pascal has solid counter punching power in both hands that Kovalev will have to respect. If Pascal wins the fight it will likely be due in large part to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes with this power, combined with good movement and hand speed (though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power).
- Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter. Pascal is a fairly good fighter from the inside; it'll be interesting to see if Pascal is successful at getting inside and using his advantages in athleticism and hand speed to outwork Kovalev from inside and limit Kovalev's power from range.
Positives for Pascal
- Former WBC, Lineal, and Ring Magazine light heavyweight champion and currently ranked the Ring Magazine #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Very good KO power in both hands (though Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%)). Looked impressive in his most recent full fight vs. former super middleweight champion Lucian Bute.
- Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against. This could be an effective style vs. a slower, somewhat defensively flawed Kovalev.
- Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantages vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Kovalev. Has good elusiveness with his speed and mobility.
- Possesses an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or been in danger of getting stopped in his career.
- Experienced boxer who has already fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Lucian Bute, Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. (Pascal is a respectable 2-2-1 vs. these opponents, with the two losses being very close, competitive fights.) Pascal has fought in seven world title fights, his first before Kovalev even turned pro.
- Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011).
- Fast starter who usually gets out to early leads in fights.
- Will be fighting in his (adopted) hometown of Montreal, Quebec in Canada; the vast majority of the crowd will be rooting for Pascal.
- Has shown noticeable improvement since hiring boxing great Roy Jones Jr. to assist with training. Is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach. Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).
- Former WBC, Lineal, and Ring Magazine light heavyweight champion and currently ranked the Ring Magazine #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Very good KO power in both hands (though Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%)). Looked impressive in his most recent full fight vs. former super middleweight champion Lucian Bute.
- Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against. This could be an effective style vs. a slower, somewhat defensively flawed Kovalev.
- Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantages vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Kovalev. Has good elusiveness with his speed and mobility.
- Possesses an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or been in danger of getting stopped in his career.
- Experienced boxer who has already fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Lucian Bute, Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. (Pascal is a respectable 2-2-1 vs. these opponents, with the two losses being very close, competitive fights.) Pascal has fought in seven world title fights, his first before Kovalev even turned pro.
- Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011).
- Fast starter who usually gets out to early leads in fights.
- Will be fighting in his (adopted) hometown of Montreal, Quebec in Canada; the vast majority of the crowd will be rooting for Pascal.
- Has shown noticeable improvement since hiring boxing great Roy Jones Jr. to assist with training. Is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach. Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).
Negatives for Pascal
- Will be at a disadvantage vs. Kovalev in terms of overall boxing IQ, technical skill, and power. Most recent loss was to Hopkins, who Kovalev dominated by winning every round on all three judges' scorecards. Pascal's primary advantage will be his hand speed and mobility, but Kovalev already decisively beat a comparably quick and elusive fighter in his most recent fight vs. Hopkins. Pascal often throws wild, inaccurate punches which could put Kovalev in great position to land precise, potentially fight-ending counter punches.
- Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). Pascal is already 32 years old; the injuries could persist or even get worse in future fights as Pascal gets older (including tonight's fight).
- In large part due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Has only fought 3 times since 2012, with his last fight in December 2014 ending in a no contest decision after less than two rounds.
- Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
- Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
- Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).
- Will be at a disadvantage vs. Kovalev in terms of overall boxing IQ, technical skill, and power. Most recent loss was to Hopkins, who Kovalev dominated by winning every round on all three judges' scorecards. Pascal's primary advantage will be his hand speed and mobility, but Kovalev already decisively beat a comparably quick and elusive fighter in his most recent fight vs. Hopkins. Pascal often throws wild, inaccurate punches which could put Kovalev in great position to land precise, potentially fight-ending counter punches.
- Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). Pascal is already 32 years old; the injuries could persist or even get worse in future fights as Pascal gets older (including tonight's fight).
- In large part due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Has only fought 3 times since 2012, with his last fight in December 2014 ending in a no contest decision after less than two rounds.
- Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
- Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
- Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).
I wouldn't be surprised to see Kovalev have a fight on his hands early. He's facing a confident, fearless, and aggressive fighter in Pascal who likes to jump on top of his opponents early and get out to a fast start. Pascal is a very strong, physical boxer who will have a decisive speed advantage. If Pascal moves well and uses his speed he could have success vs. the slower Kovalev in many spots; he certainly has at least a puncher's chance as Kovalev has, in the recent past, been knocked down and/or hurt by fighters with less skill and power than Pascal.
But beyond that obligatory puncher's chance, I don't give Pascal much of a chance to win this fight. Pascal has a great chin - having never been knocked down in his career - but he's never faced a fighter with punching power anywhere near the power of Kovalev's. Like Hopkins before him, I see Pascal tasting Kovalev's power early and then becoming increasingly tentative throughout the rest of the fight as he tries to avoid Kovalev's punches. Pascal is a pressure-dependent ambush fighter who, despite having good speed, does not fight well when backing up; Pascal's normal game plan of jumping in on his opponents from the outside will be severely limited once he feels Kovalev's power and after Kovalev increasingly applies pressure on a stamina-deficient Pascal over the course of the fight.
I think the most likely result for this fight is Kovalev by mid-round TKO/KO but will give Pascal's chin enough respect to consider a wide unanimous decision by Kovalev as also a very good possibility. In either case, I fully expect Kovalev to win this fight easily; a win here vs. Pascal will cement Kovalev's status as the best light heavyweight boxer in the world and should further propel Kovalev up the pound-for-pound rankings.
But beyond that obligatory puncher's chance, I don't give Pascal much of a chance to win this fight. Pascal has a great chin - having never been knocked down in his career - but he's never faced a fighter with punching power anywhere near the power of Kovalev's. Like Hopkins before him, I see Pascal tasting Kovalev's power early and then becoming increasingly tentative throughout the rest of the fight as he tries to avoid Kovalev's punches. Pascal is a pressure-dependent ambush fighter who, despite having good speed, does not fight well when backing up; Pascal's normal game plan of jumping in on his opponents from the outside will be severely limited once he feels Kovalev's power and after Kovalev increasingly applies pressure on a stamina-deficient Pascal over the course of the fight.
I think the most likely result for this fight is Kovalev by mid-round TKO/KO but will give Pascal's chin enough respect to consider a wide unanimous decision by Kovalev as also a very good possibility. In either case, I fully expect Kovalev to win this fight easily; a win here vs. Pascal will cement Kovalev's status as the best light heavyweight boxer in the world and should further propel Kovalev up the pound-for-pound rankings.
Prediction: Kovalev to win
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