Showing posts with label postfight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label postfight. Show all posts

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Hernandez-Harrison vs. Dallas Jr.: postfight scoring recap and analysis

Fight: Dusty Hernandez-Harrison (29-0, 16 KOs) vs. Mike Dallas Jr. (21-3-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Washington D.C.
Date: May 13, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: BET
Line: Hernandez-Harrison -550, Dallas Jr. +400 (5 Dimes, 5/13/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hernandez-Harrison - Not ranked, Dallas Jr. - Not ranked
Style: Hernandez-Harrison: Orthodox, Dallas Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Malik Waleed

Outcome: Harrison-Hernandez draws Dallas Jr. (split decision draw)
Judge Scorecards: Tammye Jenkins 95-94 (Hernandez-Harrison) | Paul Wallace 96-92 (Dallas Jr.)| Wayne Smith 94-94 (draw)

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-92 (Dallas Jr.)
BET Scorecard: 95-93 (Dallas Jr.)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)
(click here to view full fight)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap


Round 1:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 10-9 Dallas Jr.

Round 2:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 20-18 Dallas Jr.

Round 3:  10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 30-27 Dallas Jr.

Rounds 1-3 were much of the same  - Dallas moving well, staying outside of Dusty's range while outboxing Dusty with activity and hand speed. Dallas, the smaller man in the fight, was mostly the aggressor and landed a wide variety punches - most notably consistently landing straight lefts to the body and combinations to Dusty's face. Dusty was patient and stayed mostly behind a high guard defense the first few rounds, at times stalking Dallas but never throwing many punches (and generally not landing more than one punch at a time). Dusty got a bit more aggressive in the 2nd and 3rd rounds landing some good power shots to the body at times, but Dallas clearly outworked him by beating him to the punch with his hand speed advantage and staying out of range with his foot speed.

Round 4:  Dallas is still outworking Dusty with hand speed and movement, especially in the early part of the round. Dallas still throwing nice combination punches (some of which land, some of which are getting blocked by Dusty's guard)  while Dusty is still generally landing only one punch at a time. Some good exchanges towards the middle and end of the round - Dusty drops his guard and gets more aggressive, landing some solid one-punch power shots in the second half of the round. A couple of nice power right hands by Dusty to end the round. Dallas definitely threw and landed more punches in this round but Dusty appeared to land the more meaningful shots. 10-9 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 39-37 Dallas Jr.

Round 5:  Noticeable abrasion on the left side of Dusty's face from combinations landed by Dallas in the earlier rounds. Dusty more aggressive, throwing more punches to start off the round but Dallas still outworking Dusty with a wide variety of punches - some of which are getting blocked but many of which are getting through. Dallas is smaller but is clearly the more skilled boxer. As in the earlier rounds, Dallas is consistently beating Dusty to the punch and largely staying out of Dusty's range with good foot movement. Dusty is dropping his hands (which he also did in the last round) as he is stalking Dallas. In the latter part of the round Dallas lands a nice power right shot with a follow-up left that sends Dusty to the ground. Dusty gets up and round ends shortly after. Clear round for Dallas. 10-8 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 49-45 Dallas Jr.

Round 6:  Dallas loading up and throwing a lot of big power shots early in the round with Dusty - likely still a bit dazed from the knockdown towards the end of the last round - back behind his high guard trying to defend himself. Dallas landing all the shots in this round, both to Dusty's face and body area. Dallas stalking Dusty trying to end it. Dusty gathers himself towards the middle of the round but hardly throws or lands any punches in the round, staying mostly behind his high guard. 10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 59-54 Dallas Jr.

Round 7:  Dallas outboxing Dusty early, varying his punches well and moving before Dusty can set his feet and get off. Dusty does land a decent flurry in the middle of the round but Dallas outworking him still. Towards the end of the round Dusty lands a late, cheap shot after the referee tells the fighters to break. (It's possible Dusty didn't hear the referee but he probably should have been deducted a point there.) 10-9 Dallas Jr. (clear), Score: 69-63 Dallas Jr.

Round 8:  More of the same - Dallas still outboxing and outworking Dusty. Dallas is mostly just too fast for Dusty. In the middle of the round Dusty lands a couple of left hands that appear to be a bit low and send Dallas to his knees holding his cup. Referee doesn't clearly see the punches and rules (much to Dallas's and the crowd's surprise) a knockdown after Dallas drops to the ground. A bit of a closer round due to Dusty landing a few body shots but Dallas seems to get the better of Dusty through the remainder of the round. Still scored the round 10-8 for Dusty (as opposed to 10-9) due to the ruled knockdown and the round being close. 10-8 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 77-73 Dallas Jr.

Round 9:  Dusty coming out this round more aggressive with lead left jabs (probably should have thrown more of these earlier in the fight). Dallas still outboxing Dusty with combinations and speed but Dusty is being much more aggressive here, probably knowing he is behind on the scorecards. Dallas looks a bit tired but is still outworking Dusty, throwing and landing more punches. Dusty lands a couple of nice body shots followed by a right uppercut late in the round. Dallas fires back with some nice combinations. Harrison lands a nice flurry towards the end of the round before Dallas counters with his own flurry right before the bell. Dusty appears to be bleeding from both nostrils. Close round but Dallas still throwing and landing more punches, and is landing the cleaner shots. 10-9 Dallas Jr. (close), Score: 87-82 Dallas Jr.

Round 10:  Both fighters come out with some urgency. Dallas still more active and landing more punches but Dusty landing some good shots of his own. In the middle of the round, Dusty backs Dallas into the corner and lands a nice combination. Some good exchanges here overall - probably most entertaining round of the fight. Dusty lands a nice flurry in the latter part of the round; both fighters exchange combinations combinations to end the round. Dallas probably landed more punches in this round (as he did in nearly every other round) but Dusty landed some solid power punches here. 10-9 Hernandez-Harrison (close), Score: 96-92 Dallas Jr.

Postfight Analysis


I'm generally not one to play the "robbery" card as I recognize that a range of scores is usually reasonable - but this was absolutely a robbery. Dallas very clearly outboxed Dusty - both throwing and landing more punches while displaying superior skill and hand speed over the course of the 10 rounds. Dallas moved very well on his feet and largely stayed out of range  vs. a relatively inactive, somewhat flat-footed Dusty who rarely landed more than one punch at a time. I actually felt Dallas won as many as 9 out of the 10 rounds and - with the exception of the 8th round (where Dusty was awarded a questionable knockdown) - felt that every round that could be scored for Dusty was a close round, while there were several rounds that Dallas won pretty clearly. In particular, I'm not sure why 2 out of the 3 judges scored the 3rd and 7th rounds for Dusty, rounds I felt were clear rounds for Dallas.  

Watching from ringside, I felt bad for Dallas after the fight. This is a guy who's been robbed before in a previous fight vs. a top contender in Mauricio Herrera. This is also a guy who suffered a 1st round KO loss vs. feared power puncher Lucas Matthysse, a fight he took on a few weeks notice shortly after his father passed away from leukemia. After the KO loss and his father's passing he spent a couple of years away from boxing, only recently returning  to put on perhaps one of the better performances of his career this past Friday... only to be robbed again. Dallas came into this fight vs. Dusty the more experienced, skilled fighter and it clearly showed on fight night.

On paper, it's understandable why Dusty is such a highly regarded prospect. Dusty is a 3-time National Junior Golden Gloves champion. He at one point a few years ago turned down an opportunity for the Olympics to become the youngest professional fighter in the United States at 17. He is athletic, has excellent height and length for his weight class, and is well-rounded in terms of having pretty good boxing skills, speed, and power. He's been praised by the likes of Mike Tyson and Andre Ward and is considered by some to be the best boxing prospect out of the Washington D.C. area since Sugar Ray Leonard. At 21 years old, Dusty also already has multi-year sponsorship deals from Fila and GEICO.

But Dusty's impressive amateur pedigree and skills on paper have - thus far - not translated well to his professional career. He's undefeated (29-0-1) but has been matched up vs. embarrassingly soft competition to this point in his career. Prior to fighting Dallas, Dusty had yet to face a fighter ranked even in the top 250 (as ranked by BoxRec) in his weight class and less than 10 of the 30 fighters he's fought thus far in his career have a winning record. Despite the putrid competition Dusty has actually been knocked down multiple times in his career, which includes getting knocked down 3.5 years ago in his hometown by a fighter who currently has a record of 3-24, and his most recent fight vs. Dallas - a solid boxer but B or C-level fighter who hadn't fought any legitimate competition in over 2 years.

What's especially concerning is Dallas, who only has 10 KOs in 26 fights, was the smaller boxer in this matchup but at times took the fight to the bigger, stronger Dusty and was able to score a 5th round knockdown (which could've even been a stoppage if there had been more time left in the round). If smaller guys like Dallas and no-name journeymen like Michael Balasi and Marqus Johnson can score knockdowns vs. Dusty you'd have to assume the top guys at 147 with legit punching power, or even decent punching power at 154 (a weight class where Dusty has fought quite a bit in the past and will presumably return to as he gets older) won't have too much trouble putting Dusty to the canvas with his questionable chin and poor head movement.

Dusty is very young and, at 21 years old, still has plenty of years to improve but chin resistance and speed (two attributes that were noticeably lacking in his fight vs. Dallas) usually don't improve over the course of a career. Dusty will have to work quite a bit on improving his punch output, head movement, and overall boxing technique if he wants to compete with the top contenders at 147 and 154. Dusty looked good in spots vs. Dallas with his pressure and power punching, but this was primarily due to his size advantage - he for the most part was outclassed and looked flat-footed vs. Dallas, who is a solid fighter but far from one of the elite guys in Dusty's weight class.

We'll have to see what the future holds for Dusty, but he may need to take a step down in competition and further hone his skills against weaker competition if he wants to avoid risking a loss in the very near future.

The draw this past Friday in D.C. was unfortunately the latest in a line of very questionable scorecards out of the D.C. area - going back to the Amir Khan/Lamont Peterson fight in 2011 (controversial split decision for Peterson after two questionable point deductions from Khan for pushing) and the Badou Jack/Lucian Bute draw last month.











Monday, October 21, 2013

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap


Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.


Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.


Saturday, October 19, 2013

Bradley vs. Marquez: postfight analysis

Outcome: Bradley defeats Marquez by split decision to retain WBO welterweight title
Judge Scorecards: Robert Hoyle 115-113 | Patricia Morse Jarman 116-112 | Glenn Farman 113-115

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 116-112 (Bradley)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)


Round-by-Round Scoring Recap


Round 1: Close, feel-out round. Bradley threw more punches (which would be the norm throughout the fight) and established his jab early but Marquez landed a few more punches than Bradley and landed the cleaner, harder punches. Marquez landed a few left hooks and uppercuts to edge out a very close round. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 10-9 Marquez

Round 2: Clear round for Bradley. Bradley jabbed very effectively and used lateral movement well to elude Marquez's counter-punching skills. Bradley landed a hard right hand, solid body shot to the liver area and got the best of Marquez in a nice exchange of punches towards the end of the round. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: Very close round. Marquez showed good timing and landed the harder, more accurate shots but Bradley continued to jab effectively, throwing and landing more punches in the round. Bradley moved well and continued to control the pace. Close, but key to round was Bradley outworked Marquez 38-25 in punches thrown and landed 10 punches to Marquez's 6. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 29-28 Bradley

Round 4: Another close round. Bradley is still controlling the pace of the fight with his left jab and movement and is continuing to outwork Marquez in terms of punches thrown and landed. However, Marquez landed the more solid, accurate punches in the round and got the better of Bradley in a nice exchange near the end of the round. Referee Robert Byrd briefly stopped the fight in the first half of the round and instructed Marquez's corner to wipe the excess vaseline off his body. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 38-38 Even

Round 5: Yet another competitive round that follows the pattern of most of the previous rounds. Bradley is having success with the left jab and is clearly controlling the pace of the fight. Again Bradley is outworking Marquez, throwing and landing more punches (and landing at a higher percentage than Marquez). When Marquez is landing, his punches tend to be more accurate and powerful than the shots Bradley landed but Bradley has not been affected by Marquez's power and outworked Marquez enough to clearly win the round (though the round was somewhat close). Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 48-47 Bradley

Round 6: More of the same. Bradley is continuing to outwork Marquez and is still controlling the fight with his left jab and foot movement. Marquez is still landing a few solid, accurate shots but Bradley is countering Marquez's punches with right hands and left hooks of his own. Bradley is consistently beating Marquez to the punch with his hand speed, countering well when Marquez throws punches. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 58-56 Bradley

Round 7: Another round very similar to previous rounds. Marquez is landing solid punches in spots but Bradley is consistently outworking Marquez and controlling the pace of the fight with his jabs, lateral movement, and hands speed. In this round, Bradley throws and lands more jabs than in any of the previous rounds. Bradley is the more active fighter in this round (as he's seemingly been in every round of the fight thus far) and his hand and foot speed advantage is becoming more apparent. Bradley landed 19 punches to Marquez's 13 in Round 7. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 68-65 Bradley

Round 8: Marquez lands a few solid right hands, including a hard body shot towards the end of the round but again Bradley is controlling the pace of the fight, outworking Marquez with his jabs and speed advantage. Bradley lands a few multiple punch combinations to take the round. Neither fighter's punches is hurting the other but Bradley's work rate and ability to elude Marquez's counter punches are the difference in this round and the fight overall. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 78-74 Bradley

Round 9:  Clear round for Marquez. Marquez started the round aggressive and landed the more accurate and powerful punches. Marquez outlands Bradley for the first time in the fight since Round 1 (22 punches landed for Marquez; 16 in favor of Bradley). Marquez is effective with his straight right hand and lands a couple of nice combinations to win the round going away. This is Marquez's best round in the fight. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 87-84 Bradley

Round 10:  Most exciting round of the fight thus far. Numerous flurries of punches in this round. Bradley scored a few nice combinations in the round but Marquez countered with his own, which got the crowd (a pro-Marquez crowd which up to this round had been frustrated with the lack of action from both fighters) behind Marquez again. Marquez landed a few solid shots in this round, including a right uppercut early and a clean body shot towards the end of the round. However, Bradley appeared to control the round overall with (similar to previous rounds) his work rate, jab, and movement in the ring. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 97-93 Bradley

Round 11: Marquez is noticeably more active in this round than he's been in most previous rounds, stalking Bradley and appearing to throw and land more meaningful punches overall. Bradley is less active (perhaps a bit fatigued) and mostly resorts to landing single shots before retreating. Marquez lands a few nice body shots in the round. Neither fighter lands any huge punches but Marquez wins the round primarily due to lack of activity from Bradley, who was mostly on the defensive. (It's likely Bradley knows he's ahead and is playing it safe.) Marquez had a 14-4 advantage in power shots landed in Round 11. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 106-103 Marquez

Round 12:  Close round. Marquez continues to stay aggressive in this round, stalking Bradley who is using good movement to avoid Marquez's aggression. As in previous rounds, Bradley is having success using his jab and movement to elude Marquez's advances. Bradley is also countering Marquez's aggression effectively with some solid shots. This was an even round, perhaps with Marquez slightly ahead until the final heavy exchange of punches towards the end of the round which Bradley got the best of, including a left hook that almost sends Marquez to the canvas. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 116-112 Bradley


Postfight Summary


This fight basically went as I predicted in my prefight analysis. Bradley clearly learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight, using his speed advantage, defensive abilities, and jab to stay control the pace of the fight and outbox Marquez. Although Marquez tended to land the more crisp and accurate punches when he connected (Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley according to CompuBox stats), his overall activity was low compared to Bradley, who threw and landed more punches than Marquez. In terms of scoring, the difference in the fight for me was the middle four rounds (Rounds 5-8), all of which I gave to Bradley. 

Bradley has outstanding lateral movement and a low center of gravity elusiveness which made it difficult for Marquez to land any meaningful punches the whole fight. Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley in the fight, but Bradley was never in any serious danger during the fight. Marquez is one of the great counter punchers of this era but, as I expected, Bradley's lateral movement, speed advantage, and jab effectively neutralized Marquez's counter punching skills. If Bradley had fought the same fight he fought vs. Provodnikov (i.e., stood in the pocket and exchanged punches), Marquez probably would've won the fight. But it's very difficult for a counter puncher to outbox someone with such a significant foot and hand speed advantage and enough ring savvy to use those advantages to elude counters. There were quite a few close, competitive rounds but I thought Bradley clearly won the fight. (Interesting fact: the official judges disagreed on how to score 7 out of the 12 rounds in the fight, including 3 out of the first 4 rounds and 4 out of the last 5 rounds.) 

Bradley is still undefeated and is now Ring Magazine's #3 pound-for-pound boxer. So what's next for Bradley? Floyd Mayweather and Adrien Broner seem unlikely as they are both affiliated with Golden Boy Promotions, a direct competitor of Top Rank Promotions, the promotional company Tim Bradley is affiliated with. (Golden Boy and Top Rank have an oft-publicized acrimonious relationship.) It would seem the winner of the Pacquaio/Rios fight in November or the winner of the Alvarado/Provodnikov fight on HBO would be the most likely candidates. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Mike Alvarado and Ruslan Provodnikov.