Fight: Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 19, 2016
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA, IBF, and WBO Light Heavyweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Ward -165, Kovalev +155 (
5 Dimes, 11/19/16)
Purse: Ward: $5 million, Kovalev: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward:
#4 ranked pound-for-pound,
#4 ranked light heavyweight; Kovalev:
#2 ranked pound-for-pound,
#1 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd
Why you should watch this fight
Neither fighter is very well known to sports fans who don't follow boxing closely, but to hardcore boxing fans this is without question the most anticipated fight of the year. This is only the third time in boxing history that two undefeated,
Ring Magazine top five pound-for-pound boxers will face each other (other two times were Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Trinidad in 1999 and Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. vs. Meldrick Taylor in 1990). We have an Olympic gold medal-winning, master-class technician who hasn't lost a professional or amateur fight since he was 12 years old in Andre Ward moving up in weight to fight Sergey Kovalev, who along with Gennady "GGG" Golovkin is one of the two most feared power punchers in boxing with (very) underrated technical boxing skills and a cold-blooded killer instinct (after all, he has
literally killed a man in the ring) to match potentially all-time great power.
This is a classic matchup between a pure boxer in Ward - who many would say is one of the best boxers of this generation and could go down as one of the best boxers of all-time - vs. arguably the best power puncher in boxing in Kovalev. It is highly likely that the winner of this fight between two future likely hall-of-famers will be widely considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport going forward.
Why Andre Ward will win
Although he's been relatively inactive over the past half decade (having fought an average of roughly once a year over this time period), Ward is still widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport (if not the best). He's an undefeated, master technician who hasn't lost a fight in his professional or amateur career since he was 12 years old. Ward went through an extended stretch in his career where the quality of his opposition was as tough as any other boxer (most notably Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament where he faced the likes of former world champions Carl Froch, Mikkel Kessler, and Arthur Abraham in their primes) and still won all of those fights with ease by wide margins. If Ward retired today, he would go down as one of the great super middleweight boxers of all time.
Ward is a technically brilliant, extremely versatile boxer who fights superbly both inside and from distance. Especially on the inside, many would consider Ward the best in the sport; he is adept at using his unmatched combination of athleticism, strength, and ring intelligence to smother and wear opponents down from close distance. This may serve him very well vs. Kovalev, who has shown susceptibility to getting hit to the body from inside and has a tendency to drop his guard when getting hit in that area.
Ward is a highly accurate lead puncher and counterpuncher who also fights very well from range; Ward is adept at throwing well-timed jabs (particularly from his dominant left hand) and is effective from fighting from either an orthodox or southpaw stance.
Whether fighting from range or inside, Ward has excellent footwork which he's used along with his physical strength and superior skills to dominate the pace of every fight he's ever fought in as a pro. Even Jean Pascal and Isaac Chilemba had success in spots landing vs. a defensively mediocre Kovalev (who's head movement at times is nonexistent) so Ward - who has a clear speed advantage in this matchup - should be able to consistently land cleanly and outbox Kovalev if he can withstand or otherwise mitigate Kovalev's punching power.
Ward is an instinctual, very high IQ fighter who appears to be on the level of a Floyd Mayweather or Bernard Hopkins in terms of ability to read and adjust to his opponent's boxing style. Kovalev is an underrated technician who a couple of years ago gave (a 49 year-old but still very crafty) Hopkins by far the worst defeat of his career but Ward is the more intelligent and savvy boxer in this matchup.
Ward is also an elusive, defensively gifted fighter - even on the inside where he has an uncanny ability to dodge and counter power punches from close range. If Ward can keep this fight on the inside (where Kovalev is somewhat unproven and will have less success getting adding leverage to his punches), one would have to strongly favor Ward over the course of 12 rounds.
Although Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years and suffered through multiple injuries (including a debilitating, career-threatening right shoulder injury), at 32 years old Ward is arguably still in his prime and is actually the younger fighter in the matchup vs. a 33 year-old Kovalev.
Ward is moving up in weight to fight one of the most feared power punchers in the sport but he does have a very respectable chin, having been knocked down only once in his professional career (vs. Darnell Boone in the 7th fight of his career when he was only 21 years old).
Minus the ultra-quick reflexes, Ward is arguably Mayweather-level in terms of boxing skill, ring IQ, and athleticism; *if* he can withstand Kovalev's power (which is obviously a major if), it's extremely difficult to not envision him outboxing Kovalev - who looked unimpressive in his most recent fight vs. Chilemba - over 12 rounds.
Why Sergey Kovalev will win
Like Ward, Kovalev is also undefeated and is the unified WBA, IBF, and IBO light heavyweight champion of the world. Kovalev is widely considered - along with fellow Soviet Gennady Golovkin - one of the top two power punchers in boxing today. Kovalev is a devastating puncher with outstanding power in both hands (complimented with excellent balance allowing him to get full leverage on many of his punches) to the extent where he doesn't necessarily have to land cleanly for opponents to feel his power. Of Kovalev's 30 wins, 26 (86.7%) have come by TKO/KO. Kovalev is on course to go down as one of the better power punchers in the history of the sport; as skilled as Ward is (and he is considered by many the most skilled fighter in boxing today) just one clean power punch landed by Kovalev could easily change the course of the fight.
Although primarily known as a power puncher, Kovalev is an very underrated technician who has proven time and again he has the world class boxing skills to match his punching power. Kovalev is a stalking, yet patient fighter who doesn't waste punches. He is a very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws both jabs and combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand. When punching, Kovalev uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his offensive attack. Kovalev is also a brutal body puncher, one of the best in the sport; even a defensively gifted Ward may have trouble stopping some of those body punches from landing when fighting inside.
Ward is considered a master technician but Kovalev has already faced and thoroughly outboxed another master technician in Bernard Hopkins - knocking Hopkins down once (in the 1st round of their fight) and winning all 12 rounds on all three judges scorecards after Hopkins went into survival mode after the knockdown. Kovalev does not have quite the experience nor has he faced the quality of opposition Ward has but - in addition to Hopkins - in recent years he's faced top-level opposition in former world champions Jean Pascal (twice), Nathan Cleverly, Gabriel Campillo, and Chilemba; with the exception of Chilemba all were soundly defeated by TKO/KO.
A key advantage Kovalev has is that this fight is taking place in the light heavyweight (175 lbs) division, a division where Kovalev has fought nearly his entire career and been champion for over three years. Ward was big and physically strong for a super middleweight (168 lbs) but he's moving up to fight at 175 pounds for only the third time in his career - the previous two being somewhat unimpressive unanimous decision victories vs. journeymen Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera - to face a fighter in Kovalev who has been dominant at that weight class for several years. There are *huge* question marks as to how well Ward's noted physical, clinching tactics inside will fare vs. a bigger opponent at a higher weight class and how well his respectable (though certainly not as devastating as Kovalev's) power carries up to light heavyweight.
Although slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive in recent years (due to multiple injuries and legal battles) and has looked somewhat rusty in recent fights; at 32 years old it may very easily be the case that Ward may not be the same quality of fighter at this point in his career as he was a few years ago when he was considered the #2 boxer pound-for-pound behind only Floyd Mayweather. In one of Ward's most recent fights, Barrera did have some success landing power punches with his right hand. And while Ward is known to be outstanding defensively, he is susceptible at times to getting hit given his proclivity for fighting from close distance. If Ward truly has lost a step and looks as rusty as he has in recent fights at 175, one would have to think Kovalev's power has a good chance of getting the stoppage within a 12 round fight where Ward will likely put himself within punching distance for large stretches.
Kovalev is not only (by far) the best puncher Ward has faced in his career - a career in which Ward
has been knocked down and in trouble before against a lesser puncher in a lower weight class - he is also the most skilled boxer Ward has ever faced. Many have claimed Kovalev can not outbox Ward over 12 rounds - which may be true from a purely technical standpoint - but with Kovalev's combination of overwhelming power and underrated technical skill, it would not be surprising to see him win this fight by stoppage or by clear decision.
Prefight Analysis
So this fight is as difficult as any fight I've tried to predict on multiple levels. One one level it's difficult to say which style will prevail tonight - the technically superior, more experienced, master class in Ward with the clear hand and foot speed advantage who hasn't even come close to losing a fight since he was a preteen - or the elite power punching and very underrated boxing skill of a similarly undefeated Kovalev, who is the current unified champion and is defending his titles within his natural weight class. On another level it's equally difficult to predict which version of each of these boxers will show up tonight. Despite winning easily, Ward hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent bouts vs. B-level opponents, while Kovalev was also unimpressive and looked frustrated in spots during his most recent fight vs. Chilemba. The outcome of this fight will of course largely depend on which of these fighters is closer to their "A" game Saturday night.
As many boxing pundits have pointed out, this is as close to a true 50/50 as it gets with the level of skill and clash of styles involved in this matchup. I'll admit that I'm personally rooting for Ward - a highly intelligent boxer with strong moral character who has always carried himself with class - to win this fight. If this was prime, vintage Andre Ward and/or we were dealing with a weight-drained Kovalev fighting Ward at Ward's usual 168-lb weight (a la a weight-drained Chad Dawson in his 2012 fight with Ward), I'd (perhaps strongly) favor Ward's technical superiority, speed, and inside fighting ability over Kovalev's overwhelming power.
But there are three key reasons why I - despite personally rooting for Ward - very slightly favor Kovalev in this matchup:
1) This fight is taking place at light heavyweight (175 lbs), not at super middleweight (168 lbs). This fight is at Kovalev's natural weight class - a weight class Ward moved up to just this year and has looked less than impressive in vs. forgettable opposition. This is only Ward's 3rd fight at 175 lbs, a weight class Kovalev has dominated for several years. I have doubts as to whether Ward will be able to impose his physical will - which he does so easily at 168 lbs - inside vs. a stronger, deadly power puncher like Kovalev at 175. I think Ward will find that he's in for a different fight vs. an elite 175-pound fighter than he's used to vs. elite 168-pound fighters. At 175 lbs, there is a question of how he will be able to handle the power of a true light heavyweight power puncher (who happens to be one of the top two power punchers in boxing) and how well Ward's own power at 168 lbs carries up to 175 lbs. The extra weight may also slow Ward down a bit, making him less fleet of foot. Ward is a big super middleweight who may have been outgrowing the 168 lb weight class anyway but the fact that this fight is taking place at 175 lbs is a clear advantage for Kovalev.
2) Ward is more likely than Kovalev to be off his game. Neither fighter has looked especially impressive in recent fights so it's tough to predict which version of each fighter will show up tonight. But I think Kovalev is a bit more likely to bring his top-level game than Ward. Although Ward is actually slightly younger than Kovalev, Ward has been relatively inactive (having fought only four times in the past four years), endured multiple surgeries (some to alleviate potentially career-threatening injuries), and - judging by his recent fights this year - seems to have lost a step from the pound-for-pound #2 Ward that dominated the Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament a few years ago. It's possible that this is simply Ward shaking off rust from inactivity, but it's also possible that this 32-year old version of Ward - after all the injuries and multiple extended layoffs - just isn't quite the fighter he used to be in his mid-twenties. If Ward is no longer the same A+-level performer we've come to expect from the Super Six World Boxing Classic fights and from his fight with Chad Dawson, then Kovalev certainly has a much greater chance of pulling off an upset at a weight class Ward still appears to be getting accustomed to.
3) Ward will likely stay within range of Kovalev's power for significant stretches of the fight. Ward has a very respectable chin (having been knocked down only once in his professional career) but Kovalev is by far the most effective power puncher he's faced in his career with significantly more power than he's used to facing at 168 lbs. Ward likes to fight from close range inside - which often works to smother an opponent's punches and mitigate power - but the close range will nevertheless give Kovalev ample opportunity to setup his (usually lethal) offensive attack to the body and head. All it would take is one clean punch from Kovalev over the course of 12 rounds to change the fight; if Ward stays within punching range as expected I believe Kovalev will be effective enough to land multiple shots and at times overwhelm Ward with his power.
Even at this stage of his career Ward is such a gifted, crafty fighter that it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he ended up heavily frustrating Kovalev with elusiveness and skill and won every round of the fight. Ward is, in my opinion, a historically great talent who certainly has the ability to outbox Kovalev. But I believe this version of Ward isn't quite the same Ward we remember from a few years ago and that Kovalev - who possesses high-level technical skills in his own right (skills that are being overlooked and underrated by many) - will catch and overwhelm Ward with his power at this weight class.
The question if Kovalev wins this fight is whether he wins by his customary stoppage or by decision. Kovalev's most recent fight vs. Chilemba - a fighter in many ways similar in style to Ward - went the full 12 rounds. Kovalev's fight a couple of years ago vs. master boxing technician Hopkins also ended in a 12-round decision. Ward is certainly crafty and elusive enough to last 12 rounds (as Chilemba and Hopkins did) if he chooses; but - unlike Chilemba or Hopkins - I don't see Ward retreating and fighting off his back foot in this matchup. Ward has much more of a proclivity than those two fighters to attack inside and I think he will stick with that tactic - even at the risk of getting knocked out. (Kovalev's power is also greater from distance which I think will further encourage Ward to get past Kovalev's stiff jab and stay inside for stretches in an attempt to somewhat mitigate his power.) But I think Ward's close range tactics will provide ample opportunities for Kovalev to pepper Ward with power punches and get the stoppage.
At almost 2.5-1 odds, I think Kovalev by TKO/KO (+249) is the best bet for this fight. But given the unpredictability of this clash of styles and given Ward's technical superiority and still elite skills, I would hedge this bet with an equal amount of money on Ward by 12 round decision - which can still be found at approximately even money (+100) odds. Certainly looking forward to this fight!!!
Prediction: Kovalev to win
Recommended bets: 1) Kovalev by TKO/KO (1 unit)
2) Ward by 12 round decision (1 unit)
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