Hopkins vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (55-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (25-0-1, 23 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: November 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Hopkins +240, Kovalev -260 (5 Dimes, 11/8/14)
Purse: Hopkins: $1 million, Kovalev: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins - #1 ranked light heavyweight, Kovalev - #2 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• Along with Marvin Hagler and Carlos Monzon, one of the great middleweight boxers of all time. In his prime, defended his middleweight title(s) a record 20 consecutive times over a 10+ year period. Current IBF, WBA, and IBA light heavyweight champion of the world and is the oldest boxer to ever win and defend a world title. Still a master class technician at age 49. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ (perhaps the highest IQ in the sport). Has an excellent trainer in Naazim Richardson but practically coaches himself during fights. Adept at making adjustments during the fight and neutralizing his opponent's strengths. Superb all-around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Particularly adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down behind his lead shoulder with his hands held high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Hopkins is a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Kovalev. Hopkins generally controls the pace/tempo of fights and is adept at using "gray-area" tactics (e.g., excessive clinching, hitting opponents during clinches, head butts, smothering, etc.) to his advantage.  
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands. In his most recent fight (vs. then WBA light heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov), scored a knockdown in the 11th round. 
• At 49 years old, will still have a speed/mobility advantage vs. the slower Kovalev. Hopkins has excellent (and often underrated) footwork as well as a slight (2.5") reach advantage which he will likely use to try and manage distance and neutralize Kovalev's dangerous knockout power. Hopkins has had success in the past vs. big punchers with slower mobility (e.g., his victories vs. at the time undefeated boxers Felix Trinidad and Kelly Pavlik). 
• Despite his age is still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current light heavyweight champion of the world and within the past 3.5 years has convincingly beaten the likes of Beibut Shumenov (almost 19 years his junior), Karo Murat (18 years his junior), Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior), and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior) - 3 of whom are former world champions and all of whom were ranked one of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world at the time they fought Hopkins. (Pascal and Shumenov are still currently ranked in the top 5 of light heavy weight boxers in the world.)
• Hopkins is the more experienced fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. For comparison, Kovalev's best opponents have been lesser known, B-level fighters such as Nathan Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo (though both are former world champions). 
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 19th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 49 years old (only two months from his 50th birthday and eligibility to join AARP), 18 years older than Kovalev. For comparison, Hopkins is actually over a year older than long-retired former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and is only slightly younger than retired boxing legends Pernell Whitaker (50 years old), Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. (52), and Evander Holyfield (52). Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this fight vs. the naturally bigger, younger, more powerful Kovalev be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• While Hopkins has fought a lot of top-level competition in his recent fights, he's only fought one boxer over the past six years considered "elite" at the time they fought (Chad Dawson) and struggled in both fights. (The first fight was a no contest decision that Hopkins was clearly losing and the second fight Hopkins lost by majority decision.)
• Although Hopkins has an excellent chin, he is susceptible to being knocked down, having been knocked down twice in both his first fight vs. Jean Pascal in 2011 and his first fight vs. Segundo Mercado back in 1994 (both fights ended in a draw). Although Hopkins was not seriously hurt after any of those knockdowns neither Pascal nor Mercado possess the punching power of Kovalev, who has knocked out by early round TKO/KO nearly 90% of the opponents he's faced. 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights, especially in this late stage of his career where the volume of punches he throws is noticeably down from where it was in his prime. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active (which leaves him susceptible to being outworked and outscored on the judges' scorecards). Sometimes slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (25-0-1) and current WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. 
• Out of his 25 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by KO. One of the most feared men in boxing. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.)
• Although known primarily as a power puncher, Kovalev has underrated boxing skills. Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fight vs. Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport.
• At 31 years old, Kovalev is in the prime of his career facing a nearly 50-year old fighter nearing the end of his career. Hopkins is an all-time great but Kovalev is the younger, naturally bigger, and stronger fighter.
• Kovalev doesn't have the top-level experience Hopkins has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 
• Kovalev's trainer, John David Jackson, has years of experience with Hopkins; sparring with him early in his career, fighting against him in a 1997 middleweight title fight, and as his assistant trainer for four years (including during Hopkins' upset victories vs. Antonio Tarver and Kelly Pavlik). Jackson knows Hopkins as well as nearly any trainer in the sport, which is certainly to Kovalev's advantage.  

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't even close to that of Hopkins, who has fought (and decisively beaten) future first ballot hall-of-famers like Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, and Roy Jones Jr. Hopkins is by far the best opponent Kovalev has faced in his career.  
• Kovalev has never gone past eight rounds in his professional career, having been to the eight round only once and past the 4th round only four times in his career. Hopkins' defensive skill and experience means there's a good change Kovalev's stamina and ability to box past the early/mid rounds will be tested for the first time in his career. 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter; Hopkins, one of the great inside fighters in the history of boxing, may have some success if he can smother Kovalev and make the fight an inside brawl. Kovalev has KO power in both hands but his power isn't quite as strong from his left hand as it is from his right.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in his dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Hopkins will likely try to take advantage of. (If Hopkins wins the fight it will likely largely be due to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power.) Kovalev's chin is also not proven; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including his last fight vs. Caparello.
• While Kovalev's boxing skills are very good (and oft underrated), Hopkins is still the superior boxer in terms of technical skill and IQ. Kovalev won't win a chess match vs. Hopkins. Hopkins will also have a speed and footwork advantage vs. the somewhat slower, less agile Kovalev. 

Prefight Summary

This is a tough fight to predict as there are many ways this fight could go (depending on a number of different variables). Bernard Hopkins is certainly a master class boxer, one of the great (i.e., top 50) boxers in the history of the sport. It would not at all be surprising to see Hopkins pull off the upset; he has been in this position a few times before (as a significant underdog to a younger, undefeated, hyped-up boxer with big punching power) vs. boxers even more highly regarded than Kovalev and more than once won convincingly (see his fights vs. Trinidad and Pavlik). Hopkins is a master at adjusting to his opponents' tendencies and has the uncanny ability to neutralize his opponents' strengths over the course of a fight. I can easily see Hopkins using his technical skill, footwork, and speed advantage to stay out of Kovalev's power punching range but also be capable of sneaking in on Kovalev to make the fight a brawl from the inside, where Kovalev is largely untested. (Hopkins on the other hand is one of the best inside fighters of his generation.) In focusing primarily on his offensive attack, Kovalev's defense is suspect at times; Hopkins will likely have spots in the fight where he exposes Kovalev's defensive holes with clean counter punches. Kovalev has shown his defensive flaws in previous fights vs. lesser fighters - I'd expect there will be at least a few moments in the fight where Hopkins will have the opportunity to outpoint Kovalev, perhaps even enough to earn Hopkins a victory by decision.

The (huge) rub here is that Hopkins, while still a top-level boxer, is almost 50 years old and near the end of his career fighting a deadly power puncher in his prime who is younger, naturally bigger, and stronger than him. Hopkins is still a very good boxer but his punching volume has decreased and skills have diminished a bit since his prime days as a middleweight champion; I doubt he'll be able to outwork Kovalev (and may not even try to fully engage Kovalev as that will leave him more prone to Kovalev countering with his devastating punching power).

Kovalev is an excellent power puncher for sure, but he is also a very skilled boxer. He's an intelligent fighter who throws punches with a high level of efficiency and is very accurate. While not as agile as Hopkins, Kovalev does possess pretty good foot mobility and hand speed; there's a good chance Hopkins' elusiveness and defensive skills keeps him out of danger for much of the fight but I see it as only a matter of time over the course of 12 rounds before Kovalev lands a devastating punch (or series of punches) that changes the course of the fight. Hopkins may try to smother Kovalev and turn the fight into an inside brawl (which may mitigate Kovalev's punching power) but Kovalev, the bigger and stronger fighter, should be able to outmuscle Hopkins and not allow him to dictate the pace of the fight.

Hopkins is a current world champion who has won his last three fights by decision vs. very solid opponents but during the same time frame, Kovalev has won by early-round TKO/KO vs. comparably-skilled fighters. Kovalev is a level or two above any opponent Hopkins has fought over the past two years and will show it Saturday night.

Because Hopkins has never been knocked out or seriously hurt in a fight I'm reluctant to pick Kovalev by TKO/KO but do think Kovalev's punching power and underrated boxing skill will carry him to victory if not by mid-round TKO/KO then by a 117-111/116-112'ish unanimous decision victory. Kovalev is is exactly the type of fighter who will force Hopkins, for the first time in his long and brilliant career, to finally show his age.

Prediction: Kovalev to win