Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185  (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million 
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage. 

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year). 

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds. 

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights.  At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value. 

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch. 

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters. 

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style. 

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215   (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight 
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights. 

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment  of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)  

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th. 

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation. 

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging. 

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Garcia vs. Campbell: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Ryan Garcia (20-0, 17 KOs) vs. Luke Campbell (20-3, 16 KOs)

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Date: January 2, 2021
Weight class: Lightweight
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Garcia: -440, Campbell: +350  (1/2/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5-ranked lightweight, Campbell: #4-ranked lightweight
Style: Garcia: Southpaw, Campbell: Southpaw

Prefight Analysis

So, I fully expect Ryan Garcia - probably the most popular boxing sensation we've seen under the age of 25 since a young Oscar De La Hoya in the mid/late 1990's - to win Saturday's fight vs. Luke Campbell, most likely by stoppage. At just 22 years old he's inexperienced and still a bit raw, but the signs are there that this is a future superstar in the making. Garcia's combination of fast-twitch hand speed and one-punch KO power (power that rates pound-for-pound with the very best in the sport) is rare, as evidenced by his last three fights ending inside 2 rounds - including his most recent fight vs. Francisco Fonseca (1st round KO), a fighter who it took current undefeated WBA (regular) lightweight title holder Gervonta Davis 8 rounds to stop back in 2017, when Davis was Ryan's current age (in what was widely considered a disappointing performance from Davis).   

Campbell is a world-class, battle-tested fighter with a highly impressive amateur pedigree (which includes a 2012 Olympic gold medal), and has the footwork and discipline defensively to frustrate the inexperienced Garcia and prevent him from getting the early stoppage he's been accustomed to in recent fights. Despite this, Garcia's (wide) advantage in hand speed and comparable reach relative to Campbell should allow him to be reasonably effective in landing a good portion of his patented left hooks and straight right hands over the course of the fight. The concussive power that complements Garcia's quick hands might be an insurmountable obstacle for a somewhat chinny Campbell who, while durable (having never been stopped in his professional career), has been knocked down four times in his last 11 fights - all at the hands of fighters with considerably less punching power than Garcia. 

Garcia is a young, supremely confident boxer who has shown vast improvements in recent fights, having knocked out all four fighters he's faced inside of 5 rounds since switching trainers two years ago from his father to reigning BWAA trainer of the year - and current trainer of Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1 Canelo Alvarez  - Eddy Reynoso. He's an undefeated Mexican-American fighter with one of the highest KO percentages amongst world title contenders in the sport (85%). And - given his talent combined with his considerable social media following - Garcia is considered by many far and away the fighter out of the current stable of young American boxing stars (a stable which includes current lightweight world title-holders Gervonta Davis, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney) most likely to follow Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather to become the next American boxing superstar.

Consider that, with over 12.5 million followers over the primary social media platforms (Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok - more followers than even Canelo and 2nd in number of followers only to current unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua amongst active boxers in the world), Garcia will likely be the promotional A-side for every fight he's involved in for years to come (at least until he loses). In this sort of spot - especially in the Mexican-American friendly confines of the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, where Garcia will undoubtedly be the overwhelming crowd favorite - the A-side usually gets the nod in close fights that could go either way. Garcia is backed financially by boxing powerhouses Golden Boy Promotions and DAZN to be the next generational superstar in boxing - one would suspect that it would take a clearly superior performance from Campbell to overcome the promotional and hostile crowd biases he'll face outside the ring. 

But the odds on this fight at U.S. sportsbooks are currently as high as 3.5-1 (implying that Campbell wins this matchup between 20-25% of the time), which I think is a bit absurd - even with Ryan's undeniable talent inside the ring and aforementioned intangible advantages (promotional A-side, crowd favorite) on the outside. Campbell is a world-class, proven fighter with experience who will by far be the most difficult test of Garcia's career to date. Campbell does have three losses, though two of those losses (to highly regarded then-WBA lightweight champion Jorge Linares in 2017 and French contender Yvan Mendy back in 2015) were very close, split-decision losses - with the loss to Mendy being avenged by Campbell in 2018 via unanimous decision victory. Campbell's only other loss was in 2019 to then pound-for-pound #1 Vasiliy Lomachenko in a fight where Campbell frustrated Lomachenko and gave him one of the tougher fights of his career even in what was a fairly wide unanimous decision loss. In the loss, Campbell buckled Lomachenko a couple of times, including a left hook to the body in the 7th round that forced Lomachenko to hold to regain his composure.

If Campbell could go 12 rounds and land solid power shots vs. a supremely talented, elusive Lomachenko, there's no reason to think he couldn't be more effective vs. a less experienced Garcia who isn't nearly as defensively sound or slippery as Lomachenko. At 5'10", Garcia is a relatively tall fighter for his weight class who often fights in an upright stance (often leaving both his body and chin exposed). I anticipate Garcia's boxing stance, combined with his relatively flat-footed style, providing ample scoring opportunities for a fighter in Campbell who - with a career KO percentage of 70% - has underrated punching power in his own right. 

Campbell matches up with Garcia better than any fighter Garcia's fought previously in terms of size and reach, and is the more experienced, technically sound boxer. As Campbell showed in his fights with Lomachenko and Linares, he has the footwork and durability to go the distance with even immensely talented, A-level fighters; I feel Campbell will be able to frustrate Garcia early with this footwork and durability and begin to land serious power shots of his own in the middle to late rounds. 

Garcia's lack of experience vs. top-level competition is by far the biggest question mark in this fight. He's fought only 4 rounds in the past two years (all vs. B and C-level opponents); the last time he actually went the distance was a majority 10-round decision victory in 2018 vs. Mexican journeyman Carlos Morales in a fight where Ryan was hurt late in the 7th round and that many thought he lost.  

While I like Garcia's talent and potential - the unknowns of how a still-raw 22-year old kid will perform vs. a legitimate top-level, battle-tested contender who has won Olympic gold and has been competitive vs. pound-for-pound A-level talent makes me feel the current +350 odds (or anything +300 and above for that matter) for Campbell is a price too good to pass up. Again, I do think Garcia probably wins this fight (and likely wins the fight by stoppage given the hand speed and power discrepancy vs. a fighter in Campbell who doesn't have the best chin). But the better value in my mind lies with the much more experienced, battle-tested fighter who also happens to have good power in a matchup vs. a young guy whose chin has never been tested at this level.

Either way, this fight should reveal a lot about where Garcia stands as a title contender and potential future superstar in the sport. Will Garcia shine like a then similarly inexperienced and untested Gervonta Davis did four years ago as a 22-year old when he stopped an undefeated Jose Pedraza for his first world title? Or will Saturday's fight prove Garcia isn't quite ready for the world-class stage yet (or even provide evidence that he'll never be ready)? As recently as last year, Garcia's promoters at Golden Boy were hesitant to put him in vs. top-level competition so tonight's fight should answer a lot of questions!

Prediction: Campbell to win

Recommended bet: Campbell to win (bet to RISK .33 unit)

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KOs) vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KOs)
Location:  Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut
Date: September 26, 2020
Weight class: Middleweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight title
TV/Stream: Showtime PPV
Line (Bovada): Charlo: -185, Derevyanchenko: +150  (9/25/20)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Charlo: #3-ranked middleweight, Derevyanchenko: #4-ranked middleweight
Style: Charlo: Orthodox, Derevyanchenko: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Jermall Charlo vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko will likely give boxing fans a much better sense of where these two elite middleweights fall within the pecking order of the division - especially Charlo, who some observers feel could prove in the very near future to be the best middleweight in the world. An impressive win by the slightly-favored Charlo in this weekend's matchup would further confirm the feelings of some that Charlo poses the biggest threat at middleweight to current pound-for-pound #1 and Ring Magazine lineal/WBA Super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez should he come back down from higher weight classes to fight in the division. 

Charlo, the current WBC middleweight champion, sports an impressive 30-0 record and he - along with his identical twin brother, WBC super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo - have risen in recent years to become among the most well-known names in the sport. Despite his perfect record and having won world titles in two different weight classes (Jermall Charlo held the IBF super welterweight title from 2015 to 2017 before vacating it to move up to middleweight), Charlo has never received serious consideration as one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport due in large part to lack of notable opponents on his resume. (A past prime Austin Trout and a chinny Julian Williams have been his two toughest opponents thus far in his career.)  A stoppage or clear unanimous decision victory vs. a widely-respected, elite middleweight in Derevyanchenko could be the fight that moves Charlo into the pound-for-pound rankings and on the precipice of becoming a boxing superstar.   

After very close decision losses to Daniel Jacobs and Golovkin (a split decision loss to Jacobs and unanimous decision loss to Golovkin in a fight that many - myself included - felt won), Derevyanchenko hopes his third time challenging for the middleweight championship is the charm in a fight almost universally considered the toughest challenge of Charlo's career. Despite only having 15 professional fights with an unremarkable record of 13-2, Derevyanchenko is a seasoned boxing veteran with over 400 amateur fights and a fighter who some, despite only being six years and 15 fights into his professional career, would argue beat both Jacobs and Golovkin. If Derevyanchenko upsets Charlo, he stakes his claim as potentially the best middleweight in the world and sets himself up for lucrative PPV matchups with other elite 160-pounders. If he wins the WBC belt from Charlo, Derevyanchenko - even with the promotional roadblocks that would make it a difficult fight to make - could be an opponent that entices Canelo to come back down to middleweight to unify titles, given Derevyanchenko's come-forward, pressuring style that many feel Canelo's excellent counter punching skills would match up very well against. 

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko is the first of two main events in a unique "double" card taking place on Showtime PPV this Saturday night. Five of the six televised fights on the card will be world title fights and will feature notable fighters such as Charlo's twin brother (and current WBC super welterweight champion) Jermell, undefeated former WBC bantamweight titlist Luis Nery, and current undefeated WBA super bantamweight titlist Brandon Figueroa. Jermall's WBC middleweight title defense vs. Derevyanchenko will headline the first portion of the PPV, while Jermell's unification title fight with WBA and IBF champion Jeison Rosario will headline the second portion. Saturday night's double PPV card is widely considered one of the most stacked PPV cards in numerous years.   

Prefight Analysis

When this fight was first announced, I was inclined to believe that Derevyanchenko to win (as a slight underdog) would probably be the best bet. Even with exactly half as many professional fights as Charlo, Derevyanchenko has the vastly superior experience vs. top-level opposition at middleweight, given his close (and highly debatable) losses over the past two years to Jacobs and pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin. Even unheralded middleweight Jack Culcay, a German boxer Derevyanchenko beat by unanimous decision in 2019 on the undercard of the Caleb Truax vs. Peter Quillin fight in Minnesota, could arguably be considered a better opponent than any middleweight Charlo has fought to date. (Culcay is currently ranked the #8 middleweight boxer in the world by BoxRec.) Charlo has fought five times at middleweight since vacating his super welterweight title in 2017, and has yet to fight a top-10 ranked middleweight opponent. Charlo has also failed to impress in most of his recent fights at middleweight, most notably his 2018 unanimous decision victory vs. Matvey Korobov that some felt should have been scored for Korobov.

Derevyanchenko is a technically sound pressure fighter whose relatively short (5'9")  stature may work to his advantage in Saturday's fight to enable him to duck under Charlo's attack and score effectively on the inside, as he did for stretches vs. both Golovkin and Jacobs. At 34 years old and with those two losses in recent PPV title fights, one would think that the sense of urgency will definitely be there Saturday night for Derevyanchenko, as this third title shot could be the last chance he gets to win a major belt, given his age and the wars he's been through in recent years. 

Derevyanchenko is a gritty, determined fighter with the superior experience and - despite the losses - has arguably looked more impressive at middleweight than Charlo ever has. At least on the surface, betting on Derevyanchenko to win straight up (+150) or by decision (+275)  as an underdog would seem to be very solid value, especially given that Charlo is still unproven at the elite level and to date  has faced no one near Derevyanchenko's caliber at middleweight.

But, despite the unknowns about Charlo at middleweight, I still like Jermall in this matchup. Styles make fights and I think at the end of the day, Derevyanchenko's style of pressure won't fare well vs. Charlo's defensively responsible style and physical metrics. Although Charlo previously fought as a super welterweight (154 lbs), his size and power have carried very well up to 160 lbs to the point where he can be considered a big middleweight who could likely compete for a world title as a super middleweight (168 lbs) in the near future. Charlo is bigger, stronger, and faster than Derevyanchenko - and has an elite power jab that I expect will control the tempo of the fight given Charlo's significant 6" reach advantage. In addition to a jab that's one of the best in boxing (and has been one of the best in boxing for a few years now), Charlo is slicker and more savvy defensively with better foot movement than any of Derevyanchenko's previous opponents at middleweight, including Golovkin and Jacobs. Relative to Golovkin and Jacobs, Derevyanchenko in my opinion will find it tougher to apply his patented high volume pressure given Charlo's reach advantage and defensive abilities. And - given Charlo's adeptness at countering pressure with big power that's quick and often pinpoint - Derevyanchenko's pressure might create too many holes that Charlo can exploit. 

At 30 years old, Charlo is the younger fighter in the prime of his career while Derevyanchenko - despite only being 15 fights into his professional career - is a bit past his prime at 34 (turning 35 next month). Derevyanchenko also hasn't fought in nearly a year, which I think will be to the detriment of the aging fighter. Even with the time he's had off to rest, Derevyanchenko is a battle-worn fighter from his lengthy, 400+ fight amateur career and the wars he's had in recent years with the likes of Golovkin and Jacobs.  

It would also be remiss to discount the promotional politics behind Saturday night's boxing card. Charlo's manager (and de facto promoter) Al Haymon, along with the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) boxing series, are using this double PPV card as part of their effort to build the Charlo twins into one of the biggest brands in the sport. Jermall Charlo is obviously the "A" side of this matchup; Derevyanchenko is the "B" side and was the "B" side in his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs - it shouldn't come as a surprise that he came out on the short end on the judges' scorecards in both of those close fights in which either could reasonably have been scored in his favor. For the PBC series, where the Charlo twins are among the more marketable commodities in all of boxing, I'd have to think a close fight this Saturday night is just as likely to be scored in favor of the "A" side Charlo as Derevyanchenko's fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs were. 

So, all things considered, I like betting the favored Charlo for the win here. In terms of method of victory - Derevyanchenko has been knocked down early in each of his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs (both times in the first round) but has never come close to being stopped as a pro. Charlo possesses big power that I feel will be effective vs. Derevyanchenko's pressure, but Charlo is by nature a low-volume, cautiously aggressive fighter which - combined with Derevyanchenko's resilient nature and sturdy chin - leads me to believe it's highly likely this fight goes to decision. Therefore, I think a bet on Charlo to win by decision offers the best value for this matchup Either way, definitely looking forward to this event and the stacked card!!! 

Prediction: Charlo to win

Recommended bet: Charlo to win by decision (bet to RISK .5 unit)

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location:  MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121  (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight. 

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did  make the necessary adjustments  - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff  - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction  that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Spence vs. Porter: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.

The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.

But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).

This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.

Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.

Prefight Analysis

Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).

Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.

Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.

Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.

I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.

As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.

Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.

If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).

I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!

Prediction: Spence by decision

Recommended bet: Spence wins by any decision (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

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Canelo vs. Jacobs: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2 35 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 4, 2019
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -430, Jacobs: +380 (5 Dimes, 5/2/19)
Purse: Alvarez: $35 million, Jacobs: $2.5 million (though will be guaranteed over $10 million for this fight per terms of his contract with DAZN)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

In mid-October of last year, Canelo Alvarez signed what at the time was the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history - a 5-year, 11-fight deal worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN. A few months later, Gennady Golovkin - winless after two (very) controversial decisions vs. Canelo that knocked him from the top of many pound-for-pound rankings - followed suit in signing a lucrative deal of his own, also with DAZN (3-year, 6-fight deal reportedly worth at least $100 million).

Given the two signings (combined worth nearly half a billion dollars), all signs point to a third fight between Golovkin and Canelo either this September or in May 2020 at the latest, a fight which might cap what will likely go down as one of the great trilogies in the history of boxing. But before the much-anticipated third fight, Canelo must first get through what will likely be a tough, competitive unification fight with IBF middleweight champion Danny Jacobs.

Since Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s retirement, Canelo has been (by far) boxing's biggest PPV attraction and is considered by many to be the most popular fighter in the sport. (With the emergence of sports streaming services like DAZN and ESPN+, Canelo might even go down in history as boxing's last true PPV star.) At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and coming off of two big wins in 2018  - a 3rd-round knockout of Rocky Fielding this past December that earned Canelo the WBA super middleweight title (the third division in which he's won a major title) and the biggest win of his career last September vs. then-undefeated, #1 pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin.

This Saturday, Canelo will face Jacobs in just the 2nd fight of his 11-fight contract with DAZN. On the surface, the fight with Jacobs is just an interim fight for Canelo warming him up for the inevitable 3rd mega-fight with Golovkin. But Jacobs is an outstanding, A-level boxer with elite punching power (78% KO ratio, which includes - with the exception of his loss to Golovkin - either a knockdown or knockout in each of his 16 fights over the past 8.5 years) who is poised to give Canelo fits with his size and reach advantage, superior speed and athleticism, and ability to box on the move. Jacobs is also a composed but determined, high IQ fighter who fought a very competitive fight with Golovkin in 2017. (I was at this fight and actually scored it 114-113 for Jacobs despite betting on Golovkin to win by TKO/KO.) Jacobs' close, unanimous decision loss to Golovkin actually ended Golovkin's 9-year, 23-fight KO streak.

The winner of Saturday's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and IBF middleweight champion and is likely headed for a mega-fight rematch with Golovkin next. Assuming the winner of Canelo vs. Jacobs does fight Golovkin next, what looms after the fight with Golovkin is a unification fight vs. WBO middleweight champion (and fellow DAZN-signed fighter) Demetrius Andrade for the undisputed middleweight championship. Whoever earns that undisputed middleweight championship will be the 1st undisputed middleweight champion since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

Saturday night will be Canelo's record 5th time fighting at T-Mobile Arena since the venue opened in 2016 and 12th time overall fighting in Las Vegas. (Saturday night will be Jacob's 1st time fighting at T-Mobile and 1st time fighting in Las Vegas since 2010.)

Prefight Analysis

There's a lot to like about Daniel Jacobs in this matchup. Besides having excellent power at middleweight (to the extent that Golovkin - who has never been knocked down or knocked out as an amateur or pro - had to respect Jacobs' power, staying cautious throughout large stretches of the fight), Jacobs is the naturally bigger, more mobile fighter with a 2.5" reach advantage. Canelo has struggled in the past vs. rangier fighters who move well (Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout); Jacobs certainly fits this description and is in many ways a bigger, stronger, more skilled version of a prime Austin Trout, who fought a close, competitive fight vs. Canelo in 2013 (that some observers felt he won - I scored that fight 114-113 for Canelo).

As he did with Golovkin, Jacobs should be able to at least in spots frustrate Canelo with movement behind a long jab; if anything Jacobs should have more success moving behind his jab vs. Canelo than he did vs. Golovkin given that Canelo is a bit more flat-footed, doesn't cut off the ring quite as well, and isn't quite the threat in terms of volume and punching power that Golovkin is.

At as high as a 4-1 (+400) underdog, I think Jacobs is being underrated in this matchup. Jacobs is an A minus/A-level fighter who has only lost twice in his career - his close, competitive loss to Golovkin in 2017 (again a fight which I actually edged to Jacobs despite betting on and rooting for Golovkin to win) and his 2010 5th-round TKO loss to Dmitry Pirog, a fight in which Jacobs was leading 3-1 on all three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage. (Note that Pirog was a very highly regarded, undefeated prospect that many felt had the same level of talent as Golovkin coming up. Despite winning the vacant WBO middleweight title vs. Jacobs and successfully defending it for nearly two years, Pirog was forced to retire right before a scheduled fight with Golovkin because of a debilitating back injury suffered during training.) Jacobs is also a fighter who has either knocked down or knocked out each of his last 16 opponents over the course of the past 8.5 years years (with the exception of Golovkin). This list of opponents includes slick, elusive fighters who had never previously been stopped in their careers. In my opinion, Jacobs actually performed slightly better in his 2017 matchup with Golovkin than Canelo did in either of his two matchups with the Kazakh fighter - sticking behind his long jab and wearing Golovkin down in the later rounds with constant movement and timely punching.

Jacobs also comes across as a man of exceptional character and strong sense of determination - as evidenced inside the ring by how he performed after he got knocked down in the 4th round of his fight with Golovkin and outside the ring by how he overcame a rare form of bone cancer where Jacobs was told by doctors he would never box again and might not ever walk again. Any man who has overcome what Jacobs has overcome in life won't be intimidated by Canelo or the prospect of fighting what will be by far the biggest fight of his career in front of a hostile, Canelo-friendly crowd. I expect Jacobs to put up a solid performance vs. Canelo, frustrating a smaller, less athletic, relatively flat-footed Canelo with length and constant movement, which I think may re-introduce the stamina issues Canelo has had in several fights in his career, including his 1st fight with Golovkin.

With all this said, I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. I see Canelo as (perhaps by far) the more skilled, accurate power puncher, particularly when executing his body attack. Jacobs has good movement but I think Canelo will be able to counterpunch effectively in spots where Jacobs is throwing his own power punches within range. Jacobs may win the jab battle from distance but I see Canelo getting the better of close-range exchanges, which typically make more of an impression on the judges in terms of scoring. Note that Maciej Sulecki who, like Canelo, is an effective combination puncher with fast hands, had success landing power punches in many stretches of his fight last year with Jacobs - a fight that was close and competitive until Jacobs knocked Sulecki down in the 12th round. Canelo is in many ways a (much) more skilled, heavier-handed version of Sulecki; it is likely with his superior skills and accuracy that he will have more success landing power punches on Jacobs than even Sulecki did.

Scoring seems to play a controversial (and often pivotal) role in most of Canelo's big fights. At this point you have to think that there's a good chance that this will again be the case Saturday night, especially given that the three judges for the fight (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman, and Steve Weisfeld) will be the same three judges that controversially scored Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin in favor of Canelo. (Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin was a very close fight that most felt Golovkin edged.) Canelo is the biggest draw in in the sport and - from a boxing politics standpoint - is certainly the favored, more heavily promoted fighter in this matchup. Canelo is only the second fight into one of the largest contracts for an individual athlete in the history of pro sports; a loss for Canelo here could (at least from a monetary standpoint) be semi-devastating for DAZN and the sport of boxing as a whole. Canelo has gotten (very) favorable scoring in every big fight of his career (most notably including one judge scoring his 2013 fight with Mayweather - a fight most felt Mayweather clearly dominated - a draw and another judge scoring 10 out of 12 rounds of his 1st fight with Golovkin in his favor - a score which even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya disagreed with). I feel there is a good chance biased scoring could come into play yet again Saturday night in what will likely be a close and competitive fight.

Jacobs is older but Canelo is the decidedly more experienced fighter, having essentially fought a who's who list of boxers since his early 20s. This experience - along with the wide variety of styles Canelo has faced throughout the prime of his career - is one of the reasons he seems to get (noticeably) better with each fight. As a fighter still in the middle of his prime I think there's a good chance we'll see an even further improved Canelo in Saturday's fight.

While not as fast as Jacobs on foot, Canelo has deceptively fast hand speed (i.e., likely faster hand speed that Jacobs) which is one of the reasons I anticipate he'll be able to counter Jacobs effectively within range, especially to the body. Despite Jacobs' physical advantages I wouldn't be surprised if Canelo stops Danny given his ability - which perhaps is the best in boxing at the moment - to throw fast and varied power punch combinations with accuracy.

Given Canelo's advantages in skill and experience, along with what I suspect will be a fight scored with at least a shade of pro-Canelo bias in front of what will be an overwhelmingly pro-Canelo crowd on Cinco De Mayo weekend at T-Mobile Arena, I grade Canelo as roughly a 70/30 favorite to win this fight. But, Jacobs is currently being listed as a nearly +400 underdog at many sportsbooks (currently as high as +405 at Bet Online) which implies that sportsbooks feel Jacobs has roughly only a 20% chance to win the fight. Given what I believe to be an undervaluation of Jacobs in the sportsbook market for this fight I actually think taking Jacobs to win is the bet with the best value (despite the fact that I do grade Canelo as a strong favorite to win this fight). If I felt sketchy judging definitely wouldn't be a factor I would take Jacobs to win at those odds quickly without even thinking about it; Jacobs is a highly skilled fighter with a combination of size, power, reach, and determination than Canelo has never seen before which I think at minimum makes Jacob a very live underdog.

Again, I think Jacobs likely loses this fight and - given the politics surrounding the fight and history of scoring in big fights involving Canelo - it's tough to envision Jacobs winning by decision on the scorecards. But I think at nearly 4-1, the odds are too good to pass up a bet on Jacobs given his elite-level skills and the numerous physical advantages he'll have in this matchup. So I'll be taking a small bet on Jacobs to win with an even smaller bet on a draw (at 20-1) as pure value plays.

But this fight could go a number of ways - I'll be in attendance and will be looking forward to see how everything pans out!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bets: 
1) Jacobs to win (.25 unit) 
2) Alvarez/Jacobs draw (.1 unit)

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Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Errol Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: March 16, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  IBF World welterweight title
TV: Fox PPV
Line: Spence: -360, Garcia: +325 (5 Dimes, 3/16/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #10 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked lightweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

While well-known amongst boxing fans, Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia are far from household names in the mainstream sports world. But Spence vs. Garcia is probably one of the more intriguing matchups of the past several years. Spence vs. Garcia is the first matchup featuring two undefeated, Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighters since Andre Ward fought Sergey Kovalev in 2016 and is the first such matchup (between undefeated, top 10 pound-for-found-rated fighters) at welterweight  since Floyd Mayweather Jr. fought Ricky Hatton in 2007.

Errol Spence - the current IBF welterweight champion of the world - is an undefeated former Olympian who is considered by many to be the best fighter in arguably the most talented weight division in the sport. Spence is a skilled, versatile boxer who's used his typical advantages over his opponents in size, speed, power, and athleticism  to not only win, but dominate every fight of his 24-fight professional career. Spence has won 14 of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO.

This Saturday night Spence will face Mikey Garcia, another undefeated fighter who is trying to become only the 6th 5-division champion in the history of the sport (Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Thomas Hearns), a feat which would make his already likely future induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame a certainty.

Like most opponents on Spence's resume, Garcia - a natural lightweight (135 lbs) - will come into Saturday night's fight as the smaller fighter with disadvantages in power, speed, and athleticism. But Garcia is an immensely talented fighter who most would consider to be the more skilled boxer with the higher ring IQ. Garcia is blessed with a unique combination of power, accuracy, timing, and efficient footwork that Spence has never seen before and will have to respect if he wants to win this fight.

This will be the first fight of Garcia's career as an underdog (+325 at the time of this blog) and will likely be by far the toughest fight of his career to date. But if Garcia - who spent the majority of his career at featherweight (126 lbs) and super featherweight (130 lbs) - can beat the man considered by many to be the best (and most avoided) welterweight in the world in his first fight as a welterweight, he'll become an instant boxing legend, a legend in the Mexican-American communities of the United States, and perhaps even a legend back in his parents' home country of Mexico.

If Spence wins the fight (as expected by most), it'll likely set the stage for a title unification super fight vs. one of the other elite welterweight title holders promoted by Premier Boxing Champions - Shawn Porter, Manny Pacquiao, or Keith Thurman - either later this year or early 2019 at the latest.

Spence vs. Garcia will be the first boxing pay-per-view (PPV) ever carried by the Fox network and the second boxing PPV to take place at the 105,000+ capacity AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (home of the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys) - the first being Canelo Alvarez vs. Liam Smith in 2016.

Prefight Analysis

The outcome of Saturday night's fight largely depends on on how well Garcia's skills carry up to welterweight. Most observers agree that Garcia is probably the better pure boxer and all-around more skilled fighter in this matchup. To date Garcia has also probably had the more impressive career, having already won major world titles in 4 weight divisions and already likely secured a future spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame behind his elite punching power in both hands complemented with exceptional timing, punch accuracy, and footwork.

Earlier this winter, Garcia spent 5 weeks of his training camp with world-renowned sports nutritionist Victor Conte to build muscle mass and gain strength - while retaining quickness and speed - for his move up to welterweight. If Garcia is able to carry his punching power up to welterweight without losing reaction time and the ability to move on his feet that he had at lower weights than this fight is much closer to a true 50/50 fight than the 75/25 to 80/20 fight the oddsmakers currently have this matchup graded as. Behind one of the best power jabs in the sport and the ability to counter accurately off his back foot, Garcia is very capable of performing better than then-IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook in his May 2017 fight vs. Spence, who on two of the three official judges' scorecards outpointed Spence over the first five rounds of their fight.

Garcia's patient, yet accurate and concussive punching power could be the perfect antidote to Spence's aggressive, lunge-forward style as Spence has shown susceptibility to clean counters when executing his attack (as seen in his early rounds vs. Brook).

There is a reason why Garcia sought out this fight and is extremely confident headed in to this matchup. Spence is a very good to perhaps great fighter but Garcia may just be a historically great fighter - a win Saturday night in his first fight at welterweight vs. the man many consider the best (and most avoided) fighter in the division will go a very long way towards proving that.

But, at the end of the day, I think the natural weight deficiency will be (way) too much for Garcia to overcome. It's been rare but we have seen instances of boxers moving up multiple weight classes to win a major title vs. an elite fighter in only their first fight at that weight class. But we've never seen a fighter move up two weight classes to beat the guy many consider to be not only the best fighter in the weight class, but also the best power puncher in the weight class with the highest knockout ratio (88%) in the division.

The weight discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that Spence is considered big for the weight class. Spence is currently the IBF welterweight champ but he's a very big, physically-imposing welterweight with a football background to boot. There is little doubt he would be the best fighter at super welterweight if he moved up to 154 pounds and he would likely be a highly successful fighter even at middleweight (160 lbs). As talented as Garcia is - and perhaps he really is the historically great talent many seem to think - one has to wonder what kind of chance a natural lightweight realistically has vs. a fighter with the athleticism and power that Spence has and vs. a fighter is Spence who could conceivably fight at an elite level at as high as middleweight. Garcia has in the past been knocked down by a light-fisted puncher at super featherweight (Roman Martinez) and - although he won the junior welterweight (140 lbs) title decisively last March vs. Sergey Lipinets - he was hit cleanly quite often by the tough Russian and didn't come close to stopping him offensively. In that fight vs. Lipinets, the skill discrepancy between Garcia and the Russian was apparent but Lipinets' size and toughness kept the fight somewhat competitive, particularly in the middle rounds where he had his most success. If Lipinets could stay competitive with Garcia at 140 lbs, I quite frankly see a (much) bigger, stronger, more athletic and skilled Spence being infinitely more competitive to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easy fight for him this Saturday night.

The theory behind this fight between a natural lightweight in Garcia and a pseudo-middleweight in Spence being competitive is based primarily on the thought that Garcia's skill advantage gives him a real shot but Spence's skills are being (way) underrated here. Again, Spence is a fighter who has not only beaten, but dominated every fighter who has stepped inside the ring with him. This included a domination of Brook - who many considered to be one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in boxing at the time and who arguably is on the same level as Garcia in terms of skill - in Brook's home country to win the IBF welterweight title. This also included a quick 5th round destruction (in April 2016) of former WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri, a feather-fisted but slick and very mobile fighter who even Manny Pacquiao was unable to stop through 12 rounds. (That 5th-round stoppage was the first and only stoppage loss of Algieri's career.)

To be fair, Spence's resume isn't too impressive outside of Brook, gritty veteran (and former 2-division champion) Lamont Peterson (who Spence defeated last year by 7th-round stoppage), and maybe Algieri but Garcia's resume is also far from noteworthy. There's irony in Garcia being considered by many (including myself) to be a future likely future hall-of-famer, yet through 39 professional fights, he has yet to face another hall-of-fame caliber fighter himself.

The expected fight dynamics don't work too well in Garcia's favor either. Garcia is typically a slow starter and not the most active puncher in terms of volume. Even Adrien Broner - another notoriously slow starter and low-volume puncher who stayed ultra-conservative throughout his unanimous decision loss to Garcia in 2017 -  was able to win four rounds on two judges scorecards vs. Garcia, including two of the first four rounds. Garcia's tendency to start slow and pick up the pace in the middle rounds may not work well against a bigger, more active and aggressive fighter like Spence who has solid stamina and a proven ability to finish strong in the later rounds (see Spence's 11th round stoppage of Brook despite Brook's successes in the early rounds).  

Garcia has one of the best jabs in boxing but Spence has a solid jab of his own and a 4" reach advantage that will at least to some degree mitigate the effectiveness of Garcia's jab. Spence is also a devastating body puncher - perhaps the best in the sport today - which I'd expect to neutralize Garcia's counter punching as the fight progresses.

Especially given Garcia's soft body physique, I do think Spence's body punching will play the biggest role in what I expect to be a clear and decisive win for him Saturday night. Garcia is a tremendously intelligent and talented fighter but I think Spence's natural advantages in size, pure strength, athleticism, and punching power will be too much for him to overcome - especially in the later rounds.

Given Spence's physical advantages and the fact that he's won 14 out of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO, I think the most likely result of Saturday's fight is Spence by TKO/KO. But given Garcia's technical prowess - which includes solid fundamentals defensively - and ability to move well on his feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts the full 12 rounds in what I still think would be a clear unanimous decision victory for Spence. While Spence to win by stoppage (currently being offered at better than even money odds) and Spence to win in rounds 7-12 (currently offered at better than 2-1 odds) are solid bets with strong value (and are bets I've placed smaller side wagers on), the bet I like the most here for mitigation of risk is Spence to win by KO or unanimous decision, currently being offered at 5Dimes at approximately -175 odds.

Spence vs. Garcia is a true legacy-defining fight and by far the most important fight of both fighters' careers. It will be interesting to see how both fighters - both of whom are typically very calm and composed by nature - perform in the big moment!

Prediction: Spence by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Spence by KO or unanimous decision (bet to WIN 1 unit) 

2) Spence by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to RISK .25 unit)

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Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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