Fight: Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: December 1, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Wilder: -155, Fury: +145 (
5 Dimes, 12/1/18)
Purses: Wilder: $4 million, Fury: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder:
#2 ranked heavyweight, Fury:
#7 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss
Why you should watch this fight
Wilder vs. Fury is one of the most anticipated fights of the year - an intriguing matchup between two elite heavyweights with a combined record of 67-0 and 58 KOs for the WBC heavyweight title currently held by Wilder. The winner of this fight will be in line for a possible unification superfight with undefeated IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in 2019 in a fight that may result in the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 2000.
Wilder vs. Fury will be the first heavyweight fight in the U.S. carried as a pay-per-view since Mike Tyson's last fight vs. Kevin McBride in 2005.
Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury have similar gregarious, charismatic personalities but have contrasting boxing styles. Wilder - who is coming off of what might have been the best fight of the year thus far in his thrilling TKO victory over Luis Ortiz this past March - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career, relying nearly entirely on the brute, raw knockout power he possesses in both hands (particularly his devastating right hand, which has been the impetus for most of his knockouts). With previously undefeated mega-power punchers Sergei Kovalev and, more recently, Gennady Golovkin suffering losses over the past couple of years, Wilder - with a historically impressive knockout percentage of 98% over 40 career fights - is now widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport.
Fury, on the other hand, is perhaps the most all-around skilled boxer in the heavyweight division, having relied much less on power and more on his high boxing IQ and savvy to decisively outbox or stop every opponent he's faced in his boxing career. Despite being 6'9" and over 250 pounds, Fury moves extremely well for his size and is deceptively elusive on defense. Offensively, Fury possesses an awkward style from range (behind an 85" reach) featuring generally accurate punches from often unpredictable angles that perplexes many of his opponents, as well as an ability to box skillfully on the inside.
Whatever advantages Wilder possesses coming into this fight in terms of punching power and athleticism, Fury has comparable advantages in terms of technique and pure boxing skills.
Although Fury has fought twice this year, both fights were "tune-up" fights against inferior, C-level opponents; Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive fight since his unanimous decision victory three years ago (November 2015) vs. Wladimir Klitschko. Since that fight with Klitschko,
Fury announced his retirement from boxing and, shortly thereafter,
experienced drug, alcohol, and mental health issues. During his retirement, Fury's weight ballooned to over 400 pounds; he's had to lose around 150 pounds over the past year to get back into top-level fighting shape.
Wilder vs. Fury is taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This will be the first fight promoted by Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions series to air on pay-per-view.
Why Deontay Wilder will win
Record of accomplishments: Wilder is the current WBC heavyweight champion, having held the title for nearly four years after a wide unanimous decision victory vs. Bermane Stiverne in January 2015. Wilder is 40-0, with 39 of those wins (98%) coming by knockout; the lone decision of Wilder's career came in the aforementioned unanimous decision victory vs. Stiverne. Wilder scored a 1st round KO victory vs. Stiverne in their rematch last year; with that knockout victory over Stiverne, Wilder has knocked out each of the 39 opponents he's faced in his professional career. A former football player (at the tight end position) in high school, Wilder didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. But Wilder rose through the ranks quickly, winning the National Golden Gloves and U.S. national amateur heavyweight championships in 2007 - less than two years after he started boxing. The following year, Wilder earned a bronze medal as a heavyweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Tonight, Wilder will be making his eighth consecutive title defense of his heavyweight belt.
Advantages in power and athleticism: Wilder has knocked out
every opponent he's faced in his career (39 opponents in 40 fights) behind legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands - especially his right hand which he uses to throw his favorite and most lethal punch, the overhand right. Wilder's punching power is arguably the most effective and sudden game changer in all of professional sports, on multiple occasions turning what were close and competitive fights into knockout victories (see Wilder's last fight vs. Ortiz and his recent fights vs. Gerald Washington and Artur Spilka).
With 19 KO victories in 27 fights (70% wins by TKO/KO), Fury has respectable punching power but doesn't have power comparable to Wilder and has less power than even Wilder's two most recent opponents (Ortiz and Stiverne). Fury's relative lack of sudden power should enable Wilder to take more chances and be more aggressive in certain spots than he was in the Ortiz and Stiverne fights. Fury is undefeated and elusive defensively, but he actually has been knocked down early by a smaller heavyweight with considerably less punching power than Wilder (
2nd round of Fury's April 2013 fight vs. Steve Cunningham). If a small heavyweight with a career TKO/KO percentage of 33% who actually fought the majority of his career at cruiserweight (maximum weight of 200 lbs) can knock Fury down, one could surmise that the top knockout artist in the heavyweight division (and perhaps the entire sport of boxing) in Wilder should have a much easier time putting Fury on the canvas.
A former football, basketball, baseball, and track athlete in high school, Wilder is a superior athlete to Fury. Fury is bigger, moves well, and has very good positional footwork for his size but Wilder is the stronger, quicker, and faster fighter. It also doesn't help that Fury comes into this fight with questionable conditioning. An eye test suggests that Fury's gotten himself back in world-class shape but Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive opponent in three years (both of his opponents since coming out of retirement were 16-1 underdog, C-level fighters) and he weighed over 400 lbs as recently as last year. It is more likely than not that Fury's years away from meaningful competition and significant weight fluctuation since his retirement have had more of a negative than positive effect on his boxing abilities.
Aggressive, yet cautious: Wilder has a reputation of being
overly aggressive, likely because of his at-times off-balance, wild swinging punches. But he actually more frequently employs a more cautious form of aggression - particularly in the early rounds of fights - behind foot movement and a long (83" reach) jab. As shown in his fight vs. Ortiz and first fight vs. Stiverne, Wilder is more than capable of being patient behind his jab and waiting for a decent opportunity to strike. At least early on, I suspect he'll utilize a similar strategy vs. Fury, staying behind his jab and not allowing the best counter puncher he's faced thus far in his career in Fury catch him out of position. With that said, Fury doesn't have the power of Ortiz or Stiverne and his physical conditioning is still a question, so I do expect Wilder to take more chances and increase his aggression as the fight progresses.
More heart/mentally stronger: Wilder - who will be making his eighth title defense tonight - is a confident, hungry fighter with a strong desire to be remembered down the road as one of the all-time great heavyweights. Compare that mentality with Fury, who retired, briefly un-retired, and then retired again after winning his first heavyweight title in 2015 vs. Klitschko. (Fury did not fight again for 2.5 years after winning the title vs. Klitschko.) Fury was scheduled to fight Klitschko again in a July 2016 rematch, but the rematch was postponed multiple times due to an ankle injury and multiple failed drug tests suffered by Fury. Fury ultimately vacated his title belts and retired from boxing citing mental health, drug, and alcohol issues.
One can surmise from evaluating their paths to Saturday's fight that Wilder is the more mentally stable fighter with superior determination and focus. Wilder showed impressive heart and determination in a fight-of-the-year candidate earlier this year vs. Ortiz, getting outboxed and nearly stopped in the 7th round of that fight before finding a way knock Ortiz down twice to win by stoppage in the 10th round. Three months after Wilder vs. Ortiz, Fury came out of retirement to fight Sefer Seferi, a farcical fight that involved quite a bit of clowning around and smiling by both fighters, and even a
kiss on the lips prior to the first bell.
Fury will no doubt take Saturday's fight more seriously, but Wilder definitely strikes me as the more serious, mentally tougher fighter which could go along way towards overcoming Fury's advantages in size and technical skill.
Recent ring activity: Wilder has obviously been much more active than the recently un-retired Fury in recent years, having fought five times since Fury fought Klitschko in 2015 - mostly vs. respectable, top 20 heavyweights. His most recent fight was against a fighter in Ortiz that some rated (and perhaps even still rate) as high as a top 2 or 3 heavyweight in the world.
As mentioned previously, Fury has fought just twice since coming out of retirement this year, both "tune-up" fights vs. no-name, C-level opponents. Fury hasn't fought an elite opponent since defeating Klitschko three years ago and has undergone extensive treatment for substance abuse since then. Ring rust, the effort to overcome substance abuse issues, as well as the effort Fury had to make to lose approximately 150 lbs over the past year to get back into top-level shape might all crash down on Fury coming into the fight vs. Wilder and result in a poorer-than-expected performance later tonight.
Home country advantage: With this fight taking place in Los Angeles, Wilder is fighting 2,000 miles from his hometown of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 2,800 miles from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York - where he's fought three out of his last five fights and developed a solid East Coast fan base. Although Wilder is headlining a boxing card on the West Coast for the first time in his career, he is fighting in his home country vs. a somewhat controversial, at-times obnoxious fighter from the United Kingdom in Fury. The charismatic, entertaining fighter from Alabama is expected to be a strong crowd favorite - which may influence the action inside the ring and perhaps even influence the judges on the outside.
Wilder has arguably been the beneficiary of favorable scoring in recent fights. Three of Wilder's last five fights - vs. Ortiz, Washington, and Szpilka - somewhat surprisingly had Wilder tied or ahead on the scorecards at the time of stoppage when it could easily be argued he should've been behind on the cards. (I had Wilder behind in the Ortiz and Washington fights at the time of stoppage.)
Why Tyson Fury will win
Record of accomplishments: Fury is a former unified IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion of the world, having won those titles in 2015 by beating Wladimir Klitschko - who until that point had been on an 11-year, 22-fight winning streak. In winning that fight vs. Klitschko, Fury also became the
lineal heavyweight champion, a title Fury still claims today as no one has beaten him since the Klitschko fight.
Like Wilder, Fury is undefeated (27-0) with 19 of those wins coming via TKO/KO. Although he's been knocked down once in his career (in 2013 vs. Cunningham, a fight he would later come back to win in the middle rounds by stoppage) he's never truly been tested in his pro, winning
all of his fights either by stoppage or clear unanimous decision. The most impressive win of Fury's career was his wide unanimous decision victory vs. Klitschko, beating the future first ballot hall-of-famer as a 3.5-1 underdog in the Klitschko-friendly confines of Germany, where Klitschko fought most of the fights in his professional career (50 out of 69 fights).
Fury is of Irish Traveller (Gypsy) heritage and comes from a long family line (reported to be 10 generations) of bare-knuckle fighters and traditional boxers. (Bare-knuckle fighting has long been a popular tradition within Gypsy culture.)
Advantage in skill: In terms of technical skills, Fury is a (far) superior boxer to Wilder. At 6'9", 250+ pounds Fury has excellent dexterity, as well as very good head and foot movement for his size. Fury is perhaps the most versatile heavyweight we've seen in some years - he can box from an orthodox or southpaw stance, from range or from close distance, and coming forward as the aggressor or moving backwards as a counterpuncher. Fury's at-times constant movement makes him hard to hit and allows him to throw punches from unpredictable, awkward angles that are difficult for his opponents to anticipate. His skills are complemented with very respectable (and generally accurate) punching power, as he's won 70% of his fights by TKO/KO.
Even after his extended layoff, Fury is arguably still the most skilled heavyweight in boxing and will be the most skilled boxer Wilder has faced in his career - even more so that Ortiz, who outboxed Wilder for most of their fight before getting stopped late. Fury doesn't have Ortiz's power but is younger, quicker, moves better, is a savvier counter puncher, and is more solid defensively than Ortiz.
In his last title fight, Fury decisively outboxed Klitschko, who was past his prime but hadn't been beaten in 11 years and was known for being one of the most technically skilled heavyweights of this generation. Klitschko went on 1.5 years later in his next fight to knock down and nearly stop UK boxing superstar Anthony Joshua, who is undefeated and widely considered the #1 heavyweight in the world. Fury did not have any of the problems Joshua had with Klitschko, barely getting touched and winning nearly all of the early rounds comfortably before coasting in the later rounds to win a clear decision.
If a less-skilled, still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder can't get to Fury with his power and tonight's fight becomes a pure boxing match, Fury will almost certainly win a wide decision more convincingly than he did vs. Klitschko. Given Wilder's at-times undisciplined, "swinging" power punching motions which sometimes leave him open to clean counters, one also can't discount the possibility that Fury even stops him in the later rounds.
Advantages in size and reach: A key advantage Wilder has enjoyed in pretty much every fight of his career is his 83" reach. Wilder typically sets up his attack behind a jab that is longer than his opponent's, which allows him to mix in knockout power punches from distance without always having to worry about clean counters (since opponents with a shorter reach usually can't attack him as effectively from distance). But, with an 85" reach, Fury might be the first boxer Wilder has faced with a reach advantage over him. Fury beat a highly-skilled Klitschko largely utilizing his reach advantage and movement to elude Klitschko's jab and power attack; he could very easily utilize a similar reach advantage to outbox a fighter in Wilder who doesn't have near the experience or savvy Klitschko did.
Wilder is also still unproven as an inside fighter, actually having struggled from close distance vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's fights vs. Washington, Spilka, and Eric Molina). Fury is a skilled inside fighter with sharper instincts and greater accuracy from close range. Do not be surprised if, in some spots, Fury uses his 40+ pound weight advantage and superior boxing ability on the inside to score points and smother Wilder's punching power.
Prefight Analysis
If I knew with certainty that we'll see the same version of Fury tonight that we saw prior to his retirement in 2016, I'd take Fury to win this fight easily without even thinking about it. I've always rated Fury very highly; in my opinion, a prime Tyson Fury is the most skilled heavyweight since Lennox Lewis, who was the best heavyweight of this generation. I favor the skills of a prime Fury even over a prime Wladimir Klitschko; a more disciplined, mentally stable Fury I think could've had a better career than the legendary Ukrainian.
Fury is the one fighter at heavyweight who has the reach to neutralize Wilder's jab. Fury also has the skills to elude Wilder's rangy power with his savvy, deceptively quick head movement and footwork. Again, Fury is a guy who - as a significant underdog - easily outboxed one of the all-time great heavyweights in Klitschko in Klitschko's adopted home of Germany. If Wilder can't reach Fury with his power Fury, in my opinion, is a near certainty to outbox a decidedly less-skilled fighter in Wilder, who has actually already been outboxed by many of the better heavyweights he's fought in recent years (Ortiz, Washington, Szpilka).
Beyond his long jab and power right hand, Wilder is somewhat limited in terms of pure skills. If tonight we get a Fury that's anything close to the level of pre-retirement Fury, I think Fury probably wins a wide decision (even wider than his win vs. Klitschko) or even stops Wilder in the late rounds.
Really, this fight mostly boils down to which version of Fury we see tonight; honestly, this is nearly impossible to predict given Fury's recent 2.5-year layoff from the sport and the mental health, substance abuse, and weight issues he dealt with during his time outside of the ring. I could be (way) wrong but I lean towards the thinking that Fury is making a serious mistake jumping in only a few months after returning from retirement to fight an elite, more athletic heavyweight with historically great punching power like Wilder. I see years of ring rust (discounting Fury's two recent fights vs. C-level opponents, where ring rust was clearly evident), deteriorated conditioning, and Fury's still-questionable mental stability not faring well vs. Wilder's confident determination, superior athleticism, and power - even with Fury's still considerable advantage in skill.
If Fury had given himself more time to tune-up vs. better competition prior to taking this fight I'd give him a much better chance to win but from what I've seen in his last two fights the ring rust is still there - he's not quite as quick or accurate as he was pre-retirement. I don't think Fury is quite ready yet to fight Wilder (or any of the other elite heavyweights for that matter).
While I see Wilder being a bit patient early in an effort to establish his jab and gauge Fury from distance, I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Wilder by TKO/KO, maybe even in the early to middle rounds. Wilder by TKO/KO - which can currently be found at roughly even money (approximately +100) odds - is the lone bet I'll be taking for this fight. In case Fury is able to find his pre-retirement form and is in better condition than I'm expecting I would strongly consider hedging any potential losses on the Wilder by TKO/KO bet with Fury to win by unanimous decision, which can currently be found at as high as +365 odds (5Dimes).
Both inside and outside the ring I fully expect tonight's fight to be a show!
Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO
Recommended bet: Wilder by TKO/KO (.5 unit)
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