Joshua vs. Usyk: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Anthony Joshua (24-1, 22 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs)

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: September 25, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight 
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super, IBF, and WBO Heavyweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Joshua: -285, Usyk: +210  (9/23/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Joshua: #1 ranked heavyweight, Usyk: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #10 ranked heavyweight
Style: Joshua: Orthodox, Usyk: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk will be the first major PPV fight of the fall in what is shaping up to be a pretty loaded final quarter of the 2021 boxing season (scheduled major championship fights include Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos Jr., Jamel Herring vs. Shakur Stevenson, and Josh Taylor vs. Jack Catterall). 

Joshua vs. Usyk is one of the better matchups that could've been made in boxing and is arguably the best heavyweight matchup we'll have this year. In Joshua, you have a unified heavyweight champion and former gold medalist who's right up there with Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez as the biggest draw in boxing. (While Canelo is a bigger draw in the United States and North America, Joshua might be a bigger draw in terms of worldwide support.) But this weekend, Joshua will face undefeated Ukrainian star Olexsandr Usyk, a former gold medalist himself who, after only 18 professional fights, is already considered one of the great cruiserweights in boxing history, having reigned as undisputed cruiserweight champion from July 2018 until March 2019 when he vacated his titles to move up to heavyweight. Usyk was the third cruiserweight in boxing history (Evander Holyfield, O'Neil Bell) to become undisputed champion in that weight class and the first cruiserweight in history to hold four major belts at once; for his efforts, Usyk was named 2018 Fighter of the Year by all the major boxing outlets.

Saturday's fight is a classic matchup between a big power puncher in Joshua with 22 knockouts in 25 career fights (88% KO percentage, with Joseph Parker being the only boxer Joshua's faced that he's never knocked down or stopped) and a slick, crafty master boxer in Usyk. In Usyk, Joshua is in with (perhaps by far) the most skilled fighter he's faced in his career, a fighter who also happens to be rated the #4 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine. (Usyk will actually be the first pound-for-pound ranked boxer Joshua has fought in his career.)   

If Joshua beats the undefeated, pound-for-pound #4-ranked Usyk, it would possibly become the best win on his resume; beating an undefeated, pound-for-pound rated fighter like Usyk would also create a strong argument that Joshua himself deserves pound-for-pound ranking consideration. A win would also set Joshua up as the A-side in a potential mega-fight in 2022 with the winner of next month's Fury vs. Wilder matchup. 

If Usyk wins, he will be the unified heavyweight champion of the world and almost certainly (if he hasn't already)have stamped his ticket into the boxing hall-of-fame after only 19 professional fights. A win would potentially put Usyk in line for the winner of Fury vs. Wilder, where he can attempt to become the 1st boxer since Evander Holyfield (and 2nd overall in boxing history) to have been the undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight during his career.

Prefight analysis

Despite being undersized at heavyweight, Usyk is more than a live dog in this matchup. Usyk is almost certainly the best boxer Joshua will have faced to date - an unbeaten, pound-for-pound ranked, likely future hall-of-famer with superior ring IQ, skills, footwork, and hand speed compared to the relatively basic, often flat-footed, and stiff Joshua. 

Usyk isn't just a great boxer, he's potentially an all-time great boxer given what he's already accomplished thus far in his career. Typically a slow starter, Usyk is known for upping his punch rate and coming on in the mid/late rounds of fights; that combined with his elite footwork and ability to box well on the move should be at least somewhat effective in tiring Joshua, who is known for having stamina issues after the early rounds.

Usyk is a disciplined, composed fighter who I think could seize the moment in the biggest fight of his career and apply effective, fight-changing pressure on a fighter in Joshua who we've seen get tense and stiffen up in the middle rounds of not only his loss to Andy Ruiz in June of 2019, but also his stoppage victory vs. Vladimir Klitschko where he was knocked down and nearly stopped in the middle rounds. The longer this fight goes, the more the fight becomes dependent on ring IQ and skill advantage; in my opinion Usyk is decisively superior in both areas, which gives him a very real shot at an upset this weekend.

With all that said, I think Joshua's advantages in size, reach, and punching power will be too much for the recently converted cruiserweight to overcome in this matchup. While immensely talented and skilled, Usyk doesn't have heavyweight size or punching power, and I think also won't have the punch activity at heavyweight to be consistently effective vs. Joshua. Joshua not only has the size and power, he'll also enter the ring with a notable 4" reach advantage, which he'll be able to use to work behind his highly effective power jab all night, as he did in his unanimous decision rematch victory vs. Ruiz in December of 2019. Usyk is certainly elusive enough to evade Joshua's attack in most spots, but - as an undersized opponent - he'll likely have to be cautious and respect Joshua's power for all 12 rounds. Note that Usyk even had difficulty at times in his most recent fight with the size and power of heavyweight contender Derek Chisora, who is not as big and - with a career 53% KO percentage - doesn't have nearly the punching power of Joshua. (Usyk beat Chisora by unanimous decision but only won by two points on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards.)

Joshua doesn't move as well as Usyk, but is mobile enough to box at a safe distance from Usyk's attack given his reach advantage. Despite Joshua's questionable chin, Usyk likely doesn't have the punching power at heavyweight to give Joshua problems, even if he is able to close the distance. 

Usyk's punch activity has noticeably declined in the two fights he's had since moving up to heavyweight; given that he'll likely have to be even more cautious than he's been in his two previous fights facing a power puncher like Joshua, I highly doubt we'll see as many punches out of Usyk on Saturday that we became accustomed to seeing during his quick ascent to the top of the cruiserweight division. (Trading punches with Joshua I think will be a quick recipe for Usyk getting stopped and I suspect Usyk is aware of that.) 

While Usyk is experienced, having consistently fought tough competition throughout his short but accomplished 18-fight career, Saturday's fight will be just his 3rd fight at heavyweight. Despite clearly winning both of his previous fights at heavyweight, Usyk didn't look terribly impressive in either fight as the size of both of his previous heavyweight opponents (Chazz Witherspoon, who fought Usyk on only 4 days notice after the previously scheduled opponent failed a drug test, and Chisora, who is arguably not even a top 10 heavyweight), seemed to stymie some of Usyk's punch activity and overall effective aggression in spots. 

Another hugely significant obstacle for Usyk is the fact that the fight is taking in Joshua's home country (United Kingdom), and in an area of London not too far from the town where Joshua was born and raised. As arguably the single biggest draw in boxing, Joshua is obviously the A-side in this promotion, and just within the past couple of days signed a lifetime contract with famed boxing promoter Eddie Hearn and his Matchroom Sport promotions company. Saturday's fight will take place in a 60,000+ capacity soccer stadium in London, where at least 90% of the fans in attendance will be raucously supporting Joshua. Given the boxing politics typically involved in protecting boxers that generate enormous sums of revenue and the home crowd advantage that Joshua will enjoy, it's tough to envision a case where any reasonably close fight here will be scored for Usyk. Usyk would likely have to completely dominate the fight over several rounds or knock Joshua out to get the victoy - which seems unlikely given the size discrepancy and Usyk's lack of knockout power. 

But I do think Usyk, who I anticipate will be more cautious than usual in this matchup, possesses the footwork and savvy to last 12 rounds vs. Joshua. So I see Joshua by decision as the best bet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua's power proves to be a bit too much for Usyk, with Joshua possibly getting the stoppage in the later rounds.

But very much looking forward to this fight - I've got to get out to one of these big fights in the UK someday!!!

Prediction: Joshua to win

Recommended bet: Joshua by decision (RISK .5 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gervonta Davis vs. Liam Walsh: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gervonta Davis (17-0, 16 KOs) vs. Liam Walsh (21-0, 14 KOs)
Location: Copper Box Arena, London, England
Date: May 20, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World super featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Davis -360, Walsh +300 (5 Dimes, 5/20/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #6 ranked super featherweight, Walsh: Not ranked
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Walsh: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Alexander

Why you should watch this fight

To gauge whether Gervonta "Tank" Davis - one of the most hyped prospects in boxing and by far the most hyped prospect Floyd Mayweather has ever promoted - is the real deal and can continue what appears to be a clear path towards future superstardom. In his last fight, Davis greatly exceeded expectations with an impressive 7th round TKO victory  vs. then undefeated Jose Pedraza to win the IBF super featherweight title. In stopping Pedraza, Davis - who'd just turned 22 years old two months prior - beat a tough, skilled boxer who'd not only never lost before but had never even been knocked down in his professional career.

In tonight's fight, Davis travels to the United Kingdom to fight another solid, experienced, undefeated opponent in Liam Walsh who, at 31 years old, is seeking his first major world title. Like Pedraza, Walsh is a versatile fighter who can box from either stance (orthodox or southpaw) and is adept at adjusting his fighting style/tactical approach based on his opponent. Walsh has better power (has won 67% of his fights by TKO or KO), quicker hands, and moves much better on his feet than Pedraza; in many ways Walsh will be a much tougher challenge than Pedraza, especially considering that this fight is taking place overseas in Walsh's home country of England.

Is Gervonta Davis a star in the making with the goods to contend with the likes of fellow super featherweight titlists Jezreel Corrales, Miguel Berchelt, and pound-for-pound star Vasyl Lomachenko? His performance tonight vs. an undefeated, potentially tricky opponent in Walsh in what is anticipated to be a very hostile environment in the UK will go a long way towards answering that question.

If Davis wins this fight, he will be the first boxer from Baltimore to successfully defend a world title in over 20 years (since Vincent Pettway in April of 1995) and one of only a handful of Baltimore-raised boxers to defend a title since the days of Joe Gans(!) in the early 20th century.

Prefight Analysis

I fully expect Davis to win this fight. Davis has already decisively beaten - and stopped - a a very good fighter in Pedraza who has a better chin and is arguably more skilled than Walsh so there's not much reason to think Gervonta isn't capable of pulling off a similar performance in tonight's fight. Walsh is solid and may actually be the more skilled, higher IQ fighter in this matchup, but Davis has excellent hand speed and elite power in both hands that will be extremely difficult for Walsh to elude for a full 12 rounds; I'd expect that Davis will eventually find and impose his will on Walsh given his clear advantages in overall athleticism, power, and speed.

Davis does lack experience at the top level of professional boxing (Walsh does as well) but it's worth noting that in his first major title fight vs. Pedraza this past January, he exhibited an unusual amount of self-confidence and lack of intimidation in picking apart an experienced, undefeated world champion in his prime. I'd anticipate Gervonta's confidence to carry over and only be greater in tonight's fight, despite having to face another solid, unbeaten fighter in what may end up being a very hostile environment overseas; Davis seems to lack the "scare" that afflicts many young, inexperienced fighters.

Walsh is in his prime, has a bit more experience than Davis against solid competition, and may actually be the better-skilled fighter overall but he's limited in terms of athleticism and is far from what would be considered "elite." Davis - based on what I've seen in his recent fights (most notably the Pedraza fight), has a special combination (arguably reminiscent of Mike Tyson) of sense of invincibility, power, hand speed, and toughness which IMO makes a stoppage victory over the British fighter the most likely outcome of this matchup.

But with that said I actually think most of the value in this fight lies with betting on Walsh to win (which can currently be found at odds as high as +350). A critical mistake Pedraza made in his fight this past January with Davis was standing in front of Gervonta for much of the fight and challenging him on the inside - which made him all the more susceptible to Gervonta's massive power. Walsh - who boxes very well off his feet - will almost certainly take a different approach and use his superior foot speed, along with his reach advantage, to outbox Davis (who is a bit flat-footed and, similar to an Adrien Broner, often relies on planting his feet from a stationary position to generate punching power) from distance. Walsh is an elusive fighter (perhaps more so than anyone Davis has faced in his professional career) with a solid defense so may be able to confound the relatively young and inexperienced Davis for large stretches of tonight's fight.

Walsh is not (and will never be) a top pound-for-pound fighter, but he is one of the very best fighters in the United Kingdom. He's crafty and probably has a better overall skill set than Davis; as the fight progresses into later rounds I'd trust his ability to make adjustments much more than Gervonta's.

Walsh also has very good (and deceptive) power; his 67% TKO/KO ratio is the highest KO% of any fighter Davis has fought in his career so Walsh may actually be the biggest puncher Davis has faced thus far in his professional career.

A last point to consider is that if this fight goes to the scorecards you have to figure - fair or not - that there is a good chance that the scoring will be biased towards Walsh in a country somewhat notorious for scoring in favor of the home country fighter when facing a fighter from overseas. So a close fight either way can perhaps be expected to be awarded to the home fighter (Walsh).

All things considered, I grade Walsh as having a decent 35-40% chance to win this fight, which makes betting on Walsh to win at the current +300 (and higher) odds  a very solid value bet. As shown in his last fight vs. Pedraza, Davis is a young, energetic fighter with excellent stamina and a seemingly sturdy chin so I don't see him getting stopped (despite Walsh's very respectable power). So I like placing at least a portion of the bet for this fight on Walsh to win specifically by decision (which you can currently find at as high as +500).

So while I see Davis as the probable winner of this fight, I'm going to go with the value here in Walsh. Walsh has too many favorable qualities in this matchup (experience, skill, good power, ring IQ, foot movement, home crowd advantage) not to consider him as at least a live underdog. I understand that Mayweather is trying to build his brand globally (and in the United Kingdom in particular) but he *may* have bitten off more than he can chew and taken too much risk here taking a young, unseasoned kid like Davis overseas to fight a hungry, undefeated top contender like Walsh. We'll see...

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Walsh to win (.25 unit) 2) Walsh by decision (.25 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Brook: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (35-0, 32 KOs) vs. Kell Brook (36-0, 25 KOs)
Location: O2 Arena (Millennium Dome), London, England
Date: September 10, 2016
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, IBF, IBO World Middleweight titles
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -570, Brook +480 (5 Dimes, 9/10/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked middleweight, Brook: #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Brook: Orthodox
Referee: Marlon Wright

Why you should watch this fight

Like the recent Terence Crawford/Viktor Postol and Leo Santa Cruz/Carl Frampton matchups, this will be a fight between two undefeated, top-rated boxers in their prime. Golovkin is widely considered the most feared puncher in boxing and is already considered by some to be one of the great middleweights in the history of the sport. This afternoon he'll be matched up against Brook, a legitimate A-level, top pound-for-pound fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has faced in his professional career.  

Although a very big welterweight, this will be Brook's first fight at middleweight after fighting nearly his entire career in the welterweight (147 lbs) division. Can Brook - as fellow Brit Amir Khan unsuccessfully attempted to do before him in May vs. Canelo Alvarez - become only the 5th boxer in history to win a major world title in his first fight after jumping up two weight classes (Roberto Duran, Roy Jones Jr., Robert Guerrero, Adrien Broner) and the first to do so in the middleweight division? Or will Golovkin get the stoppage in a hostile environment (the fight is in Brook's home country of England) vs. an undefeated fighter who's never been stopped before and bolster his claim as one of the great middleweights in boxing history?

Arguably the three best middleweights in the world (Golovkin, Alvarez, and Danny Jacobs) are fighting over the course of the next week; Kell Brook may actually be a more skilled boxer than all three. But this coming week is an excellent opportunity to get a good look at fighters who likely will be involved in some intriguing megafights within the middleweight division in the very near future.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and IBO middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #3 boxer in the world. He is undefeated at 35-0 and, with 32 KOs in 35 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage  (91.4%) in middleweight history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over six years and has won his last 22 fights by TKO/KO, the most recent 16 of which were middleweight title defenses.

Golovkin is the strong betting favorite in Saturday's fight for several reasons. As the reigning middleweight champion who has successfully defended his title(s) 16 times over the course of a little over six years (currently the 7th longest reign in middleweight history), Golovkin is a much more experienced fighter in the middleweight division  than Brook, a career welterweight who is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career vs. an opponent some already consider to be one of the great middleweight boxers of all time.

Golovkin is naturally bigger, physically stronger, and possesses much more punching power than Brook - whose power at welterweight was good (25 KOs in 36 fights), but not considered great. A big question for this fight is how Brook's power at welterweight will translate to the middleweight division vs. an opponent in Golovkin who seemed unfazed when up against bigger, more dangerous power punchers than Brook (see Golovkin's fights vs. David Lemieux and Marco Antonio Rubio) and has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 fights as an amateur and pro.

Golovkin is notorious for his outstanding punching power but he is also a technically savvy fighter with underrated boxing skills that are arguably superior to Brook's. Golovkin is an intelligent pressure fighter with one of the better jabs in boxing to compliment his methodical, accurate combination punching. He has impeccable balance in his movement and is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Golovkin's pressure should be effective vs. Brook - who is mobile enough but not known for his foot speed, which could be slower than usual given the additional weight he's put on moving up two weight classes to middleweight. Brook is also known for tiring in the mid to late rounds of fights, which plays into Golovkin's pressure style.

Golovkin is not as quick or as fast as Brook but he controls distance extremely well and has superb punch timing, which should at least be somewhat effective in mitigating Brook's hand and foot speed advantages. Golovkin's pressure and physical size advantage could wear on the smaller Brook, who in previous fights has been effectively pressured and outmuscled by smaller, less skilled boxers than Golovkin. (See the later rounds of Brook's first fight vs. Carson Jones as a primary example.)

Brook is a top-level, pound-for-pound caliber boxer who - given Golovkin's aggressive style and at times willingness to trade punches - will be effective in spots with counters and body shots but Golovkin has been unfazed when facing boxers with significantly more dangerous punching power so there may not be enough in Brook's offensive arsenal to deter the expected Golovkin onslaught.  

Why Kell Brook will win

Like Golovkin, Brook is an undefeated fighter in his prime who - while not currently ranked on the Ring Magazine Top 10 pound-for-pound list - is widely considered one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world. Brook is a slick, versatile fighter with good power in both hands. He is a highly intelligent, adaptive fighter who can box either in an aggressive, come forward style or box on his feet relying on his timing and counter punching as needed.

At approximately 6-1 odds, Brook is a sizable underdog vs. Golovkin but he has several advantages in his favor. Brook is a legitimate, top-level fighter who is by far the most skilled boxer Golovkin has fought in his professional career; many would actually consider Brook a better fighter than Golovkin in terms of pure boxing skill. Golovkin has dominated all of his opponents thus far in his professional career but he's never fought anyone of Brook's caliber so it will be interesting to see how he fares in this matchup. To give perspective, Golovkin has never fought a top 50 pound-for-pound fighter in his career; Brook is considered by most to be one of the top 10-15 boxers in the world.

Brook has clear hand and foot speed advantages over Golovkin. If Brook can effectively maintain distance vs. Golovkin's pressure he could outbox GGG in stretches by beating him to the punch with jabs (and Brook is known to have one of the better jabs in boxing) and well-timed counters.

Brook is moving up two weight classes to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career but he's always been a very big welterweight with excellent strength for his size. Brook's normal walk around weight is actually around 175-180 pounds (light heavyweight to cruiser division weight) so it may not be as much of a problem as some anticipate for him to fight at 160 pounds, which may even be a more comfortable weight for him than welterweight. I wouldn't be surprised if Brook's power and stamina carry up to middleweight better than expected to the point where he may even be an improved fighter, given that he doesn't have to drain nearly as much weight to make weight at 160 pounds as he did at 147.

Brook is a strong, physical fighter who in previous fights has effectively outmuscled other physically strong welterweights like Shawn Porter. (Porter even had experience fighting at middleweight and in terms of pure physical strength is probably stronger than Golovkin.) Brook had success mitigating Porter's (typically rough-house) inside attack by using his strength to clinch and smother Porter when Porter jumped inside; it would not be too surprising if Brook can similarly frustrate Golovkin by clinching inside on him when he comes into range.  

This fight is taking place in Brook's home country of England, in a sold-out O2 arena in front of a raucous crowd that will be loudly cheering on the hometown boxer. As demonstrated countless amounts of times in big fights, home crowd support sometimes affects both the fighting inside the ring and the judging outside of it, usually in the favor of the hometown fighter.

Brook does have some holes in his defense where he does not reset to the correct defensive position quick enough (which sometimes leaves him open for clean counters), but he has only been knocked down once (in the 1st round of a 2007 fight vs. Karl David) and has never been stopped in his professional career. Most are expecting Golovkin to stop Brook but Brook does have enough skill and elusive foot movement to go 12 rounds vs. Golovkin  even if he does end up being outclassed.

Prefight Analysis

Kell Brook will have his opportunities in this afternoon's fight and may perform better than most expect. As he's already been fighting as a super huge welterweight I don't think the jump in weight classes to middleweight will be nearly as much of a detriment as some think and in many ways may actually improve aspects of his performance (e.g., less weight to drain prefight may lessen his tendency to tire in later rounds) as he will be fighting much closer to his true weight . Brook may actually be the better pure boxer in this matchup; his A-level skills combined with his speed advantage and ability to adjust his fighting style and even his stance (e.g., from orthodox to southpaw) during the course of a fight presents Golovkin with multiple problems he has not yet faced in his professional career. Given this, taking Brook to win by 12-round decision at 9-1 odds *could* have some value.

But honestly I don't this fight being competitive past maybe the early rounds. Many see the two weight class jump as the main problem for Brook. I disagree given that Brook is a naturally bigger guy anyway - I think he will fill out at 160 pounds and adjust to that weight without too much difficulty. Brook's main problems lie in what I think will be a clear disparity between him and Golovkin in terms of chin and overall defensive ability. Brook is an outstanding offensive fighter with with pretty good power and a clear hand speed advantage vs. Golovkin; he should be able to land some quality punches in spots but I don't see his punching having much of an effect on Golovkin - especially considering that Golovkin has already faced much harder hitting opponents at middleweight and effectively stymied their power en route to easy TKO/KO victories. Golovkin - who again has never been knocked down or knocked out in 385 amateur and professional fights - has a proven iron chin and impeccable balance defensively to the point where he should be able to handle Brook's varied offensive attack without too much difficulty.

So the question then is how well will Brook be able handle Golovkin's deadly mix of pressure, offensive skill, and power? At welterweight, Brook has never faced a fighter with Golovkin's punching power; while Brook has pretty good elusive mobility, Golovkin is excellent at cutting off the ring even vs. more mobile opponents and will eventually catch up to Brook. Brook has a good chin but has been bloodied and effectively pressured multiple times at welterweight - even vs. fighters not particularly known for their punching power. Facing an undefeated, top-level champion at middleweight who is perhaps the best power puncher the sport has seen in years I think - somewhat similar to Khan when he fought Canelo - it's only a matter of time before Brook gets caught. If Brook had Khan's ultra-quick hands and foot speed I actually think he'd probably last the full 12 rounds vs. Golovkin but Brook - while having better balance and chin than Khan - isn't nearly as elusive as Khan and will be forced to fight within Golovkin's range for stretches of the fight.

Brook is slick with more speed than Golovkin so may have his moments early but - with the exception of maybe the highly elusive Erislandy Lara - Golovkin vs. any current fighter from 154 to 168 pounds having to trade shots with Golovkin the smart money is on Golovkin by TKO/KO... perhaps not in the early rounds but think Golovkin will be able to overwhelm him by the mid to later rounds.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

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Froch vs. Groves: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs) vs. George Groves (19-1-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: May 31, 2014
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Middleweight title, WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Froch -165, Groves +155 (5 Dimes, 5/30/14)
Purse: Froch: ,  Groves:
Ring Magazine Rankings: Froch - #10 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked super middleweight), Groves - #5 ranked super middleweight
Style: Froch: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Positives for Froch

• Current Ring Magazine #10 pound-for-pound fighter.Tough, strong-willed boxer with one of the elite chins in the sport. Current IBF and WBA super middleweight champion.
• Highly experienced fighter. Over the past 4.5 years, has faced as tough competition as anyone in boxing, and has an impressive record of 11-2 in that span, losing only to undefeated current #2 pound-for-pound fighter Andre Ward and former 4-time super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler (in Kessler's home country of Denmark). Those two losses are the only losses of Froch's career.
• Aggressive boxer with a very good jab. Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of number of jabs thrown and landed.
• Powerful, high-volume boxer with grade A stamina. Nearly always outworks his opponent (which often helps on points in close fights). 
• Highly confident boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Has been knocked down twice in his career (including his last fight vs. Groves), but recuperated in both fights to win in the later rounds by TKO.Has shown a tendency to come on in later rounds after slow starts.
• Outstanding chin. Has been knocked down twice but has never been stopped (or been in real danger of being stopped) in his career. 

Negatives for Froch

• Froch has a tremendous chin and fights with great heart, but his boxing skills and athleticism are far from top-level; in major fights Froch is usually the inferior fighter in terms of skill.
• Though he ultimately won by TKO, Froch was decisively outboxed by Groves in their previous fight last November. Groves landed the left jab and overhand right with ease vs. Froch in the previous fight (particularly in the early rounds); unless Froch makes significant adjustments defensively, Groves will likely have similar success outboxing Froch in the upcoming fight.
• Froch lacks solid hand and foot speed; Groves will likely beat him to the punch as he did in the previous fight. Froch's best weapon is his jab, a punch he had trouble landing vs. the quicker Groves.
• Defensively, Froch is a highly flawed fighter with subpar footwork and head movement. Per CompuBox stats, Froch's opponents land 41% of power punches vs. Froch, 5th-worst among CompuBox-tracked boxers. 
• Froch is 36 years old entering a fight vs. a guy 10 years his junior who is arguably just entering the prime of his career.

Positives for Groves

• Former Commonwealth and British super middleweight titleholder. Slick, aggressive boxer with top-level technical skills. Has good hand/foot speed and very good punching power in both hands. 
• Has lost only once in his career, although the loss was by 9th-round TKO to Froch. Despite losing, Groves did clearly outbox Froch throughout the majority of the nine rounds and was winning the fight on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage. 
• This will be Groves' 2nd fight vs. Froch. Generally, rematches favor the more technically skilled fighter, who is more apt to make the adjustments necessary to win the fight. Groves not only has the advantage in skill vs. Froch, he has better hand/foot speed and arguably even has a more powerful punch than Froch. In the last fight vs. Froch, Groves consistently beat Froch to the punch, landing his left jab and overhand right seemingly at will during some stretches of the fight.
• Groves is solid defensively. Uses his foot speed to stay out of his opponent's range when he needs to. Did lose by TKO in his last fight vs. Froch but the stoppage was highly questionable. Groves has never been knocked down in his career.
• Groves is 26 years old (10 years younger than Froch) and entering the prime of his career. Although Groves lacks Froch's experience, he has fought very solid competition such as James DeGale and Glen Johnson, beating both by decision. 

Negatives for Groves

• Groves' chin is questionable after the TKO in his last fight vs. Froch. Although the stoppage was questionable, Froch did land some massive power punches which had Groves in trouble. If Froch can stop Groves once, he can certainly do it again. 
• Groves has shown stamina issues in previous fights (including the last fight vs. Froch) whereas Froch's punches are as powerful in later rounds as they are in the early stages of fights. If Groves again tires late in the fight, another late round stoppage is possible.
• In prefight appearances, Groves appears confident to the point of perhaps being overconfident. Groves has indicated he will stand in and trade in an attempt to win by knockout, which may prove to be the wrong strategy vs. a power puncher such as Froch.
• Compared to Froch, Groves is relatively inexperienced. Froch's experience and will-to-win may be the difference if the fight is close. 

Prefight Summary

This one is tough to predict. Potential fight-of-the-year candidate that could go either way. On the one hand you have George Groves, clearly the technically superior, faster boxer, who should have success outboxing Froch through a good portion of this fight (as he did in the previous fight). If Groves stays patient, uses his speed advantage to control distance, keeping this a pure boxing match (as opposed to a brawl), he will likely win a comfortable decision, if not get the TKO/KO at some point during the fight. Groves looked impressive in outboxing Froch throughout most of their first fight; he (and most boxing fans) felt the early stoppage in the previous fight was unfair and he will definitely be fighting with a chip on his shoulder in the rematch.

On the other hand you have Carl Froch, the veteran warrior with a granite chin and unquestionable heart. Despite Groves dominating much of the first fight and landing numerous clean power punches, Froch still found a way to win via TKO. Although the 9th round stoppage was highly controversial, Froch did clearly have Groves in trouble in that round and the fight appeared to be turning in Froch's favor with Groves tiring. If the fight hadn't been stopped at that point, it highly possible Froch would've earned a legitimate stoppage later in the fight or won on the scorecards if he controlled the last three rounds.

This matchup is nothing new for Froch; Froch has fought numerous top-level fighters who were considered technically superior with a speed advantage, and has beaten most, including Groves in their first fight.

I think this matchup will come down to Groves and the approach he takes in the fight. If Groves chooses to stay within distance of Froch and trade punches in the hopes of winning by TKO/KO (as he has indicated he may do in pre-fight appearances), I think Froch's chin will be able to withstand Grove's barrage and see the most likely scenario being Froch by mid/late round stoppage as Groves tires. But if Groves keeps his distance and boxes Froch (as he did in his fight vs. DeGale and as he did through much of the first fight with Froch), I believe Groves' skill and speed advantages should result in a clear decision in his favor.

 Ultimately, I think Groves will choose to fight a smart fight and outbox Froch from the outside, using his hand speed to beat Froch to the punch and using his foot speed to avoid Froch's power from close range. Froch has always been slow-footed and flawed defensively so I expect Groves will be able to land the same quality of punches he landed in the previous fight. Over the course of 12 rounds, Froch could certainly catch up to Groves at some point and end the fight early again with a heavy punch but I think Groves will be more cautious this time around.

In terms of betting, I favor Groves only slightly; this is a 55/45 fight that could go either way. But with Groves being a +155 underdog in a coin-flip matchup, my money will definitely be on Groves, who at the end of the day is the better boxer.    

Prediction: Groves by decision