Canelo vs. Bivol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) vs. Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) 

Location:  T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2022
Weight class: Light heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World light heavyweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Alvarez: -600, Bivol: +375   (5/7/22)
Purse: Alvarez: $15 million, Bivol: $2 million (base salary; Canelo will also earn 70 percent of PPV sales with a reported cap of $40 million, while Bivol will earn 30 percent of PPV sales)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Bivol: #2 ranked light heavyweight 
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Bivol: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

So there's a lot of straightforward reasons to pick Canelo here. For a few years now, he's been considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world - a future first ballot hall-of-famer still in the prime of his career with a rare combination of sublime skill, power, and ring IQ. Not to mention one of the best chins and overall defensive abilities in boxing on top of that. As impressive as he's been since his only loss nearly a decade ago to Floyd Mayweather, Canelo is arguably still continuing to improve with each fight as he's moved up in weight. Canelo's confidence also seems to be at an all-time high, as evidenced in his recent stoppages of naturally bigger, more mobile, undefeated champions in Billy Jo Saunders and Caleb Plant who most - myself included - figured would at least be able to last the distance vs. a relatively flat-footed Canelo. 

Canelo certainly also has an advantage in experience, having the best resume of any active fighter in boxing, having fought a who's who of elite fighters (across a wide variety of fighting styles)  in his 60-fight career, and routinely fights on the biggest stage in boxing in front of massive crowds. Tonight he'll be facing a relatively inexperienced opponent in Bivol who has only 19 career fights and whose best win came in 2019 vs. current WBO light heavyweight champion Joe Smith Jr. - a solid but still somewhat raw and undisciplined fighter that very few if any would consider one of the elite fighters in the sport. 

Canelo's versatility and savvy both offensively and defensively might be too much for a relatively straightforward, primarily 1-2 puncher in Bivol who seems to lack true knockout power vs. the best fighters in his weight class, with his last six fights at light heavyweight having gone to decision without Bivol scoring even a single knockdown.   

Even if this fight turns out to be competitive and close, it's difficult to imagine Bivol getting a decision given Canelo's long and notorious track record of getting the benefit of the doubt on judges' scorecards. On Cinco de Mayo weekend, the uber-popular Mexican boxing superstar will almost certainlybe the beneficiary of favorable scoring vs. atherelatively unknown, unheralded Russian fighter - especially given the current anti-Russian social and political climate. Bivol is undefeated and been a champion at 175 lbs for five years but he's a nearly 4-1 underdog for good reasons. There's seemingly too much Bivol might have to overcome - both inside and outside the ring - to upset the A-side of this matchup... who happens to be boxing's #1 cash cow and one of the biggest draws in all of sports.

Albeit for relatively small wagers, I've been (incorrectly) betting against Canelo for some time now. Maybe (or probably) I'm the sucker when it comes to odds against Canelo but I think this is arguably the strongest opportunity to bet against Canelo since his fight vs. Mayweather back in 2013. As quite possibly the best light heavyweight boxer in the world, Bivol is being severely underrated in this matchup. Yes, he's inexperienced at the elite level, but he's undefeated in his career and made fights vs. very solid opponents such as Joe Smith, Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Sullivan Barrera look easy, with multiple judges in each of those fights either scoring the fight a shutout or giving Bivol's opponent only one round for the entire fight. While Bivol's last six fights have gone to decision, he stopped 11 out of the first 13 opponents he faced in his career, which is evidence that Canelo will have to respect his power somewhat.    

As great as Canelo is - I think there's a chance he might be biting off more than he can chew at 175 lbs. Canelo has fought only one other time at light heavyweight, in November 2019 when he fought a washed, past-prime Sergei Kovalev in a fight that was very competitive until Canelo scored an 11th round KO stoppage. (I had Kovalev up two points at the time of stoppage; one of the official judges had it a draw.) Bivol, unlike Kovalev was when he fought Canelo, is still in his prime, undefeated, adept at boxing on his feet, and I think overall will have much more success fighting from distance behind his power jab than Kovalev, Saunders, and Plant did to varying extends when they fought Canelo.   

Like Canelo, Bivol is an elitely-skilled, highly efficient puncher who is also defensively responsible and excellent at managing distance. Per CompuBox, Bivol is second only to long-time Canelo rival Gennady Golovkin in total number of jabs landed per round amongst all active boxers. (Golovkin's jab was effective vs. Canelo in both fights he had against the Mexican superstar; I think a bigger, more mobile Bivol can be comparably effective with his jab even if the jab doesn't have as much power behind it as Golovkin's.) Per CompuBox, Bivol is also second (to current WBO middlewight champion Demetrius Andrade) amongst all active boxers in total number of punches landed on him per rounds, which is in large part a testament to how well Bivol manages distance behind his jab. Overall, Bivol leads all active boxers - including pound-for-pound level fighters like Canelo, Shakur Stevenson, and Vasiliy Lomachenko - in  CompuBox plus/minus rating, a statistic frequently used to assess how dominant a fighter has been over his opposition. (Plus/minus rating is calculated as the difference in connect percentage between a fighter and his opponent and was a statistic Mayweather was notorious for consistently being the highest rated boxer for when he was active.)

If Bivol can effectively shut out bigger, stronger fighters who had reach advantage like Joe Smith behind his jab, I think we can expect him to be similarly effective in large stretches of the fight vs. a smaller fighter in Canelo vs. whom he has a slight 1.5" reach advantage.  

All things considered,  especially when considering his edge in experience, skill, and punching power - not to mention a favorable Cinco de Mayo environment where you can almost expect the judges to score this fight favorable for him - I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. But at 7-1, I like Bivol by decision as far and away the best value for this fight. For similar reasons, I also think a draw (20-1) is good value and think, no matter who wins, the fight is highly likely to go the distance (-200) given the elite defensive abilities of both fighters, neither of whom have ever even been knocked down in their career.  

I'll be at the fight and definitely looking forward to this matchup. I think it'll be a better fight than most are thinking and we might be in for a big upset!!!

Prediction: Canelo by decision

Recommended bets: 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .5 unit) 

2) Bivol to win by decision (bet to RISK .33 unit)

 3) Fight to end in a draw (bet to RISK .25 unit)

Joshua vs. Usyk: prefight analysis and betting prediction

Fight: Anthony Joshua (24-1, 22 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs)

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: September 25, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight 
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super, IBF, and WBO Heavyweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Joshua: -285, Usyk: +210  (9/23/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Joshua: #1 ranked heavyweight, Usyk: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #10 ranked heavyweight
Style: Joshua: Orthodox, Usyk: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk will be the first major PPV fight of the fall in what is shaping up to be a pretty loaded final quarter of the 2021 boxing season (scheduled major championship fights include Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos Jr., Jamel Herring vs. Shakur Stevenson, and Josh Taylor vs. Jack Catterall). 

Joshua vs. Usyk is one of the better matchups that could've been made in boxing and is arguably the best heavyweight matchup we'll have this year. In Joshua, you have a unified heavyweight champion and former gold medalist who's right up there with Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez as the biggest draw in boxing. (While Canelo is a bigger draw in the United States and North America, Joshua might be a bigger draw in terms of worldwide support.) But this weekend, Joshua will face undefeated Ukrainian star Olexsandr Usyk, a former gold medalist himself who, after only 18 professional fights, is already considered one of the great cruiserweights in boxing history, having reigned as undisputed cruiserweight champion from July 2018 until March 2019 when he vacated his titles to move up to heavyweight. Usyk was the third cruiserweight in boxing history (Evander Holyfield, O'Neil Bell) to become undisputed champion in that weight class and the first cruiserweight in history to hold four major belts at once; for his efforts, Usyk was named 2018 Fighter of the Year by all the major boxing outlets.

Saturday's fight is a classic matchup between a big power puncher in Joshua with 22 knockouts in 25 career fights (88% KO percentage, with Joseph Parker being the only boxer Joshua's faced that he's never knocked down or stopped) and a slick, crafty master boxer in Usyk. In Usyk, Joshua is in with (perhaps by far) the most skilled fighter he's faced in his career, a fighter who also happens to be rated the #4 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine. (Usyk will actually be the first pound-for-pound ranked boxer Joshua has fought in his career.)   

If Joshua beats the undefeated, pound-for-pound #4-ranked Usyk, it would possibly become the best win on his resume; beating an undefeated, pound-for-pound rated fighter like Usyk would also create a strong argument that Joshua himself deserves pound-for-pound ranking consideration. A win would also set Joshua up as the A-side in a potential mega-fight in 2022 with the winner of next month's Fury vs. Wilder matchup. 

If Usyk wins, he will be the unified heavyweight champion of the world and almost certainly (if he hasn't already)have stamped his ticket into the boxing hall-of-fame after only 19 professional fights. A win would potentially put Usyk in line for the winner of Fury vs. Wilder, where he can attempt to become the 1st boxer since Evander Holyfield (and 2nd overall in boxing history) to have been the undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight during his career.

Prefight analysis

Despite being undersized at heavyweight, Usyk is more than a live dog in this matchup. Usyk is almost certainly the best boxer Joshua will have faced to date - an unbeaten, pound-for-pound ranked, likely future hall-of-famer with superior ring IQ, skills, footwork, and hand speed compared to the relatively basic, often flat-footed, and stiff Joshua. 

Usyk isn't just a great boxer, he's potentially an all-time great boxer given what he's already accomplished thus far in his career. Typically a slow starter, Usyk is known for upping his punch rate and coming on in the mid/late rounds of fights; that combined with his elite footwork and ability to box well on the move should be at least somewhat effective in tiring Joshua, who is known for having stamina issues after the early rounds.

Usyk is a disciplined, composed fighter who I think could seize the moment in the biggest fight of his career and apply effective, fight-changing pressure on a fighter in Joshua who we've seen get tense and stiffen up in the middle rounds of not only his loss to Andy Ruiz in June of 2019, but also his stoppage victory vs. Vladimir Klitschko where he was knocked down and nearly stopped in the middle rounds. The longer this fight goes, the more the fight becomes dependent on ring IQ and skill advantage; in my opinion Usyk is decisively superior in both areas, which gives him a very real shot at an upset this weekend.

With all that said, I think Joshua's advantages in size, reach, and punching power will be too much for the recently converted cruiserweight to overcome in this matchup. While immensely talented and skilled, Usyk doesn't have heavyweight size or punching power, and I think also won't have the punch activity at heavyweight to be consistently effective vs. Joshua. Joshua not only has the size and power, he'll also enter the ring with a notable 4" reach advantage, which he'll be able to use to work behind his highly effective power jab all night, as he did in his unanimous decision rematch victory vs. Ruiz in December of 2019. Usyk is certainly elusive enough to evade Joshua's attack in most spots, but - as an undersized opponent - he'll likely have to be cautious and respect Joshua's power for all 12 rounds. Note that Usyk even had difficulty at times in his most recent fight with the size and power of heavyweight contender Derek Chisora, who is not as big and - with a career 53% KO percentage - doesn't have nearly the punching power of Joshua. (Usyk beat Chisora by unanimous decision but only won by two points on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards.)

Joshua doesn't move as well as Usyk, but is mobile enough to box at a safe distance from Usyk's attack given his reach advantage. Despite Joshua's questionable chin, Usyk likely doesn't have the punching power at heavyweight to give Joshua problems, even if he is able to close the distance. 

Usyk's punch activity has noticeably declined in the two fights he's had since moving up to heavyweight; given that he'll likely have to be even more cautious than he's been in his two previous fights facing a power puncher like Joshua, I highly doubt we'll see as many punches out of Usyk on Saturday that we became accustomed to seeing during his quick ascent to the top of the cruiserweight division. (Trading punches with Joshua I think will be a quick recipe for Usyk getting stopped and I suspect Usyk is aware of that.) 

While Usyk is experienced, having consistently fought tough competition throughout his short but accomplished 18-fight career, Saturday's fight will be just his 3rd fight at heavyweight. Despite clearly winning both of his previous fights at heavyweight, Usyk didn't look terribly impressive in either fight as the size of both of his previous heavyweight opponents (Chazz Witherspoon, who fought Usyk on only 4 days notice after the previously scheduled opponent failed a drug test, and Chisora, who is arguably not even a top 10 heavyweight), seemed to stymie some of Usyk's punch activity and overall effective aggression in spots. 

Another hugely significant obstacle for Usyk is the fact that the fight is taking in Joshua's home country (United Kingdom), and in an area of London not too far from the town where Joshua was born and raised. As arguably the single biggest draw in boxing, Joshua is obviously the A-side in this promotion, and just within the past couple of days signed a lifetime contract with famed boxing promoter Eddie Hearn and his Matchroom Sport promotions company. Saturday's fight will take place in a 60,000+ capacity soccer stadium in London, where at least 90% of the fans in attendance will be raucously supporting Joshua. Given the boxing politics typically involved in protecting boxers that generate enormous sums of revenue and the home crowd advantage that Joshua will enjoy, it's tough to envision a case where any reasonably close fight here will be scored for Usyk. Usyk would likely have to completely dominate the fight over several rounds or knock Joshua out to get the victoy - which seems unlikely given the size discrepancy and Usyk's lack of knockout power. 

But I do think Usyk, who I anticipate will be more cautious than usual in this matchup, possesses the footwork and savvy to last 12 rounds vs. Joshua. So I see Joshua by decision as the best bet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua's power proves to be a bit too much for Usyk, with Joshua possibly getting the stoppage in the later rounds.

But very much looking forward to this fight - I've got to get out to one of these big fights in the UK someday!!!

Prediction: Joshua to win

Recommended bet: Joshua by decision (RISK .5 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canelo vs. Saunders: prefight analysis and betting prediction

 Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (55-1-2 37 KOs) vs. Billy Jo Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs)

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: May 8, 2021
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World, WBA World, and WBO World Super Middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Alvarez: -725, Saunders: +550  (5/7/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Saunders: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvaraez: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Billie Joe Saunders will be the biggest fight of the year to date in front of what is widely anticipated to be a full-capacity crowd of well over 60,000 at AT&T Stadium in the Dallas, TX area - a crowd that would be the largest in the United States to attend a sporting event since COVID-mandated capacity limitations on crowds began in early 2020. Canelo vs Saunders is the biggest boxing event currently on the boxing calendar; at over 60,000 tickets already sold, the fight has already amassed sales that exceed the previous record for a Canelo boxing event - 51,420 for Canelo's 2016 WBO junior middleweight title fight vs. then undefeated UK champion Liam Smith.   

 
Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).  

Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?

The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017. 

Prefight Analysis

Seems like nearly all the signs in this matchup point to an easy victory for Canelo. 

Still firmly in the prime of his career, Canelo is brimming with confidence as the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, while Saunders is looking to finally attain the respect that's seemingly eluded him his entire career of being one of the elite boxers in the world. 

Amazingly, Canelo seems even now to still be improving after each and every fight, while Saunders has slid by with lackluster performances in the majority of his recent fights.  

Outside of future first ballot hall-of-famer and all-time great Manny Pacquiao, Canelo has the most impressive resume of any active boxer; Saunders' resume, on the other hand, is littered with domestic British-level contenders and other B- and C-level fighters. (Saunders arguably doesn't have a single A-level fighter on his resume.)

Canelo is the "A" side of this matchup, perhaps the biggest draw in the sport (and biggest draw of the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation) - a wildly popular fighter with a fan-friendly style facing a relatively unpopular fighter in Saunders notorious for controversial, distasteful behavior outside the ring and uninspired, snoozer performances inside.

Canelo will be fighting in front of a full-capacity crowd in Dallas, Texas where the overwhelming majority of the crowd will be there to root him on. Texas also happens to be a state notorious for partial scorecards in favor of the "A" side fighter. (Though Canelo has seemingly been the beneficiary of favorable judging regardless of fight location.) 

And of course, Canelo just appears to be the more skilled, experienced, dedicated fighter in this matchup with a huge advantage in punching power. Canelo is expected by most boxing pundits to win this fight and I think he probably does get the win.  

But, as a +550 underdog  (translating to being given by oddsmakers just a 15.4% chance to win this fight), I see a little bit of value in taking Saunders to win. Although Saunders' resume is a bit lacking, he is an undefeated, two-division world champion with elite skills (particularly on the defensive end), great foot and upper body movement, and a consistently effective jab. As much as Canelo has improved in recent years, he hasn't fought a slick, elusive southpaw who can move and jab like Saunders since his close (and for some controversial) decision losses to Lara and Trout several years ago. 

Canelo will always be a somewhat flat-footed fighter, which I think Saunders has the skill to exploit for large stretches of Saturday's fight with constant, responsible movement and timely counterpunching from his southpaw stance.

Note that, while he was certainly in trouble in multiple spots late in the fight, Saunders' countryman Callum Smith was able to last the distance just a few months ago in a unanimous decision loss to Canelo. Saunders doesn't have the size or punching power of Smith, but he is much better defensively - including being much more elusive and trickier than the often predictable and straightforward Smith.

Even with his fast hand speed and elite counterpunching ability, I think the slower-footed Canelo will have trouble - particularly in the early rounds of the fight - finding and adjusting to Saunders' movement and overall deceptive, awkward style. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Saunders outbox Canelo in several rounds and fully expect Saunders - who's never been knocked out or even knocked down in his professional career - to last the full 12 rounds vs. a relatively low-volume, plodding counterpuncher in Canelo. Yes, Canelo's counterpunching is timely, accurate, and packed with power that could stop Saunders at any point in the fight. But I think Saunders is the best defensive fighter Canelo has fought since his split decision victory vs. Lara and think Saunders will be mostly successful eluding Canelo's power and the traps he often sets for his opponents.   


In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .65 unit      

2) Saunders to win (bet to RISK .15 unit)