Fight: Anthony Joshua (24-1, 22 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs)
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United KingdomDate: September 25, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super, IBF, and WBO Heavyweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Joshua: -285, Usyk: +210 (9/23/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Joshua: #1 ranked heavyweight, Usyk: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #10 ranked heavyweight
Style: Joshua: Orthodox, Usyk: Southpaw
Why you should watch this fight
Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk will be the first major PPV fight of the fall in what is shaping up to be a pretty loaded final quarter of the 2021 boxing season (scheduled major championship fights include Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos Jr., Jamel Herring vs. Shakur Stevenson, and Josh Taylor vs. Jack Catterall).
Joshua vs. Usyk is one of the better matchups that could've been made in boxing and is arguably the best heavyweight matchup we'll have this year. In Joshua, you have a unified heavyweight champion and former gold medalist who's right up there with Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez as the biggest draw in boxing. (While Canelo is a bigger draw in the United States and North America, Joshua might be a bigger draw in terms of worldwide support.) But this weekend, Joshua will face undefeated Ukrainian star Olexsandr Usyk, a former gold medalist himself who, after only 18 professional fights, is already considered one of the great cruiserweights in boxing history, having reigned as undisputed cruiserweight champion from July 2018 until March 2019 when he vacated his titles to move up to heavyweight. Usyk was the third cruiserweight in boxing history (Evander Holyfield, O'Neil Bell) to become undisputed champion in that weight class and the first cruiserweight in history to hold four major belts at once; for his efforts, Usyk was named 2018 Fighter of the Year by all the major boxing outlets.
Saturday's fight is a classic matchup between a big power puncher in Joshua with 22 knockouts in 25 career fights (88% KO percentage, with Joseph Parker being the only boxer Joshua's faced that he's never knocked down or stopped) and a slick, crafty master boxer in Usyk. In Usyk, Joshua is in with (perhaps by far) the most skilled fighter he's faced in his career, a fighter who also happens to be rated the #4 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine. (Usyk will actually be the first pound-for-pound ranked boxer Joshua has fought in his career.)
If Joshua beats the undefeated, pound-for-pound #4-ranked Usyk, it would possibly become the best win on his resume; beating an undefeated, pound-for-pound rated fighter like Usyk would also create a strong argument that Joshua himself deserves pound-for-pound ranking consideration. A win would also set Joshua up as the A-side in a potential mega-fight in 2022 with the winner of next month's Fury vs. Wilder matchup.
If Usyk wins, he will be the unified heavyweight champion of the world and almost certainly (if he hasn't already)have stamped his ticket into the boxing hall-of-fame after only 19 professional fights. A win would potentially put Usyk in line for the winner of Fury vs. Wilder, where he can attempt to become the 1st boxer since Evander Holyfield (and 2nd overall in boxing history) to have been the undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight during his career.
Prefight analysis
Despite being undersized at heavyweight, Usyk is more than a live dog in this matchup. Usyk is almost certainly the best boxer Joshua will have faced to date - an unbeaten, pound-for-pound ranked, likely future hall-of-famer with superior ring IQ, skills, footwork, and hand speed compared to the relatively basic, often flat-footed, and stiff Joshua.
Usyk isn't just a great boxer, he's potentially an all-time great boxer given what he's already accomplished thus far in his career. Typically a slow starter, Usyk is known for upping his punch rate and coming on in the mid/late rounds of fights; that combined with his elite footwork and ability to box well on the move should be at least somewhat effective in tiring Joshua, who is known for having stamina issues after the early rounds.
Usyk is a disciplined, composed fighter who I think could seize the moment in the biggest fight of his career and apply effective, fight-changing pressure on a fighter in Joshua who we've seen get tense and stiffen up in the middle rounds of not only his loss to Andy Ruiz in June of 2019, but also his stoppage victory vs. Vladimir Klitschko where he was knocked down and nearly stopped in the middle rounds. The longer this fight goes, the more the fight becomes dependent on ring IQ and skill advantage; in my opinion Usyk is decisively superior in both areas, which gives him a very real shot at an upset this weekend.
With all that said, I think Joshua's advantages in size, reach, and punching power will be too much for the recently converted cruiserweight to overcome in this matchup. While immensely talented and skilled, Usyk doesn't have heavyweight size or punching power, and I think also won't have the punch activity at heavyweight to be consistently effective vs. Joshua. Joshua not only has the size and power, he'll also enter the ring with a notable 4" reach advantage, which he'll be able to use to work behind his highly effective power jab all night, as he did in his unanimous decision rematch victory vs. Ruiz in December of 2019. Usyk is certainly elusive enough to evade Joshua's attack in most spots, but - as an undersized opponent - he'll likely have to be cautious and respect Joshua's power for all 12 rounds. Note that Usyk even had difficulty at times in his most recent fight with the size and power of heavyweight contender Derek Chisora, who is not as big and - with a career 53% KO percentage - doesn't have nearly the punching power of Joshua. (Usyk beat Chisora by unanimous decision but only won by two points on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards.)
Joshua doesn't move as well as Usyk, but is mobile enough to box at a safe distance from Usyk's attack given his reach advantage. Despite Joshua's questionable chin, Usyk likely doesn't have the punching power at heavyweight to give Joshua problems, even if he is able to close the distance.
Usyk's punch activity has noticeably declined in the two fights he's had since moving up to heavyweight; given that he'll likely have to be even more cautious than he's been in his two previous fights facing a power puncher like Joshua, I highly doubt we'll see as many punches out of Usyk on Saturday that we became accustomed to seeing during his quick ascent to the top of the cruiserweight division. (Trading punches with Joshua I think will be a quick recipe for Usyk getting stopped and I suspect Usyk is aware of that.)
While Usyk is experienced, having consistently fought tough competition throughout his short but accomplished 18-fight career, Saturday's fight will be just his 3rd fight at heavyweight. Despite clearly winning both of his previous fights at heavyweight, Usyk didn't look terribly impressive in either fight as the size of both of his previous heavyweight opponents (Chazz Witherspoon, who fought Usyk on only 4 days notice after the previously scheduled opponent failed a drug test, and Chisora, who is arguably not even a top 10 heavyweight), seemed to stymie some of Usyk's punch activity and overall effective aggression in spots.
Another hugely significant obstacle for Usyk is the fact that the fight is taking in Joshua's home country (United Kingdom), and in an area of London not too far from the town where Joshua was born and raised. As arguably the single biggest draw in boxing, Joshua is obviously the A-side in this promotion, and just within the past couple of days signed a lifetime contract with famed boxing promoter Eddie Hearn and his Matchroom Sport promotions company. Saturday's fight will take place in a 60,000+ capacity soccer stadium in London, where at least 90% of the fans in attendance will be raucously supporting Joshua. Given the boxing politics typically involved in protecting boxers that generate enormous sums of revenue and the home crowd advantage that Joshua will enjoy, it's tough to envision a case where any reasonably close fight here will be scored for Usyk. Usyk would likely have to completely dominate the fight over several rounds or knock Joshua out to get the victoy - which seems unlikely given the size discrepancy and Usyk's lack of knockout power.
But I do think Usyk, who I anticipate will be more cautious than usual in this matchup, possesses the footwork and savvy to last 12 rounds vs. Joshua. So I see Joshua by decision as the best bet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua's power proves to be a bit too much for Usyk, with Joshua possibly getting the stoppage in the later rounds.
But very much looking forward to this fight - I've got to get out to one of these big fights in the UK someday!!!
Prediction: Joshua to win
Recommended bet: Joshua by decision (RISK .5 unit)
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