Froch vs. Groves: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs) vs. George Groves (19-1-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: May 31, 2014
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Middleweight title, WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Froch -165, Groves +155 (5 Dimes, 5/30/14)
Purse: Froch: ,  Groves:
Ring Magazine Rankings: Froch - #10 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked super middleweight), Groves - #5 ranked super middleweight
Style: Froch: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Positives for Froch

• Current Ring Magazine #10 pound-for-pound fighter.Tough, strong-willed boxer with one of the elite chins in the sport. Current IBF and WBA super middleweight champion.
• Highly experienced fighter. Over the past 4.5 years, has faced as tough competition as anyone in boxing, and has an impressive record of 11-2 in that span, losing only to undefeated current #2 pound-for-pound fighter Andre Ward and former 4-time super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler (in Kessler's home country of Denmark). Those two losses are the only losses of Froch's career.
• Aggressive boxer with a very good jab. Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of number of jabs thrown and landed.
• Powerful, high-volume boxer with grade A stamina. Nearly always outworks his opponent (which often helps on points in close fights). 
• Highly confident boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Has been knocked down twice in his career (including his last fight vs. Groves), but recuperated in both fights to win in the later rounds by TKO.Has shown a tendency to come on in later rounds after slow starts.
• Outstanding chin. Has been knocked down twice but has never been stopped (or been in real danger of being stopped) in his career. 

Negatives for Froch

• Froch has a tremendous chin and fights with great heart, but his boxing skills and athleticism are far from top-level; in major fights Froch is usually the inferior fighter in terms of skill.
• Though he ultimately won by TKO, Froch was decisively outboxed by Groves in their previous fight last November. Groves landed the left jab and overhand right with ease vs. Froch in the previous fight (particularly in the early rounds); unless Froch makes significant adjustments defensively, Groves will likely have similar success outboxing Froch in the upcoming fight.
• Froch lacks solid hand and foot speed; Groves will likely beat him to the punch as he did in the previous fight. Froch's best weapon is his jab, a punch he had trouble landing vs. the quicker Groves.
• Defensively, Froch is a highly flawed fighter with subpar footwork and head movement. Per CompuBox stats, Froch's opponents land 41% of power punches vs. Froch, 5th-worst among CompuBox-tracked boxers. 
• Froch is 36 years old entering a fight vs. a guy 10 years his junior who is arguably just entering the prime of his career.

Positives for Groves

• Former Commonwealth and British super middleweight titleholder. Slick, aggressive boxer with top-level technical skills. Has good hand/foot speed and very good punching power in both hands. 
• Has lost only once in his career, although the loss was by 9th-round TKO to Froch. Despite losing, Groves did clearly outbox Froch throughout the majority of the nine rounds and was winning the fight on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage. 
• This will be Groves' 2nd fight vs. Froch. Generally, rematches favor the more technically skilled fighter, who is more apt to make the adjustments necessary to win the fight. Groves not only has the advantage in skill vs. Froch, he has better hand/foot speed and arguably even has a more powerful punch than Froch. In the last fight vs. Froch, Groves consistently beat Froch to the punch, landing his left jab and overhand right seemingly at will during some stretches of the fight.
• Groves is solid defensively. Uses his foot speed to stay out of his opponent's range when he needs to. Did lose by TKO in his last fight vs. Froch but the stoppage was highly questionable. Groves has never been knocked down in his career.
• Groves is 26 years old (10 years younger than Froch) and entering the prime of his career. Although Groves lacks Froch's experience, he has fought very solid competition such as James DeGale and Glen Johnson, beating both by decision. 

Negatives for Groves

• Groves' chin is questionable after the TKO in his last fight vs. Froch. Although the stoppage was questionable, Froch did land some massive power punches which had Groves in trouble. If Froch can stop Groves once, he can certainly do it again. 
• Groves has shown stamina issues in previous fights (including the last fight vs. Froch) whereas Froch's punches are as powerful in later rounds as they are in the early stages of fights. If Groves again tires late in the fight, another late round stoppage is possible.
• In prefight appearances, Groves appears confident to the point of perhaps being overconfident. Groves has indicated he will stand in and trade in an attempt to win by knockout, which may prove to be the wrong strategy vs. a power puncher such as Froch.
• Compared to Froch, Groves is relatively inexperienced. Froch's experience and will-to-win may be the difference if the fight is close. 

Prefight Summary

This one is tough to predict. Potential fight-of-the-year candidate that could go either way. On the one hand you have George Groves, clearly the technically superior, faster boxer, who should have success outboxing Froch through a good portion of this fight (as he did in the previous fight). If Groves stays patient, uses his speed advantage to control distance, keeping this a pure boxing match (as opposed to a brawl), he will likely win a comfortable decision, if not get the TKO/KO at some point during the fight. Groves looked impressive in outboxing Froch throughout most of their first fight; he (and most boxing fans) felt the early stoppage in the previous fight was unfair and he will definitely be fighting with a chip on his shoulder in the rematch.

On the other hand you have Carl Froch, the veteran warrior with a granite chin and unquestionable heart. Despite Groves dominating much of the first fight and landing numerous clean power punches, Froch still found a way to win via TKO. Although the 9th round stoppage was highly controversial, Froch did clearly have Groves in trouble in that round and the fight appeared to be turning in Froch's favor with Groves tiring. If the fight hadn't been stopped at that point, it highly possible Froch would've earned a legitimate stoppage later in the fight or won on the scorecards if he controlled the last three rounds.

This matchup is nothing new for Froch; Froch has fought numerous top-level fighters who were considered technically superior with a speed advantage, and has beaten most, including Groves in their first fight.

I think this matchup will come down to Groves and the approach he takes in the fight. If Groves chooses to stay within distance of Froch and trade punches in the hopes of winning by TKO/KO (as he has indicated he may do in pre-fight appearances), I think Froch's chin will be able to withstand Grove's barrage and see the most likely scenario being Froch by mid/late round stoppage as Groves tires. But if Groves keeps his distance and boxes Froch (as he did in his fight vs. DeGale and as he did through much of the first fight with Froch), I believe Groves' skill and speed advantages should result in a clear decision in his favor.

 Ultimately, I think Groves will choose to fight a smart fight and outbox Froch from the outside, using his hand speed to beat Froch to the punch and using his foot speed to avoid Froch's power from close range. Froch has always been slow-footed and flawed defensively so I expect Groves will be able to land the same quality of punches he landed in the previous fight. Over the course of 12 rounds, Froch could certainly catch up to Groves at some point and end the fight early again with a heavy punch but I think Groves will be more cautious this time around.

In terms of betting, I favor Groves only slightly; this is a 55/45 fight that could go either way. But with Groves being a +155 underdog in a coin-flip matchup, my money will definitely be on Groves, who at the end of the day is the better boxer.    

Prediction: Groves by decision 

Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: postfight analysis (scoring recap + summary)

Outcome: Provodnikov defeats Alvarado by RTD at the end of the 10th round to become interim WBO light welterweight champion
Judge Scorecards (at time of stoppage): Dennis Nelson 97-90 | Robert Hoyle 98-90 | Levi Martinez 96-92

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 96-93 (Provodnikov)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Clear round for Provodnikov. Provodnikov moving really well, cutting off ring and applying pressure much better than I thought he would vs. the more mobile Alvarado. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 10-9 Provodnikov

Round 2: Alvarado moving much better in this round, using his jab to keep Provodnikov at bay. This was how I expected Alvarado to come out and fight. Clear round for Alvarado. For the most part in the first 5-6 rounds, Alvarado did successfully outbox Provodnikov with lateral movement and timely jabs and combinations which I'd thought would be his formula to winning this fight. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 29-28 Alvarado

Round 4:  10-10, Score: 39-38 Alvarado

Round 5:  10-9 Alvarado, Score: 49-47 Alvarado

Round 6: Provodnikov landed the more vicious shots in this round, but was clearly outworked by Alvarado. 10-9 Alvarado, Score: 59-56 Alvarado

Round 7: Alvarado won the first half of the round staying busy behind his jab but Provodnikov tagged Alvarado with a series of vicious shots throughout the second half of the round to take Round 7. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 68-66 Alvarado

Round 8: Provodnikov's pressure proves to be too overwhelming for Alvarado. Alvarado down twice in this round, the first two times he's been knocked down in his career. To his credit, Alvarado got up and fought very bravely but this was the beginning of the end for him. 10-7 Provodnikov, Score: 76-75 Provodnikov

Round 9:  Provodnikov continues to apply heavy pressure on Alvarado. Alvarado's recovered a bit from the two knockdowns in the previous round but is having difficulty withstanding the pressure. Clear round for Provodnikov. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 86-84 Provodnikov

Round 10:  Another clear round for Provodnikov. Alvarado is still attempting to move and jab (which he had success with in the earlier rounds) but Provodnikov's pressure is too much. Alvarado is getting tagged with body shots and combinations. Alvarado hits Provodnikov with a few solid shots but Provodnikov walks right through his punches and keeps attacking. 10-9 Provodnikov, Score: 96-93 Provodnikov

In between the 10th and 11th rounds, Alvarado retires on his stool.

Postfight Summary

Prediction: Alvarado by decision
Outcome: Provodnikov by RTD

I predicted the outcome of this fight incorrectly but the dynamics of the fight were generally what I expected. In my prefight analysis summary, I said the fight would come down to Alvarado's lateral movement and ability to box effectively on the outside vs. Provodnikov's high-pressure, power punching style. I felt that Alvarado would likely earn the decision by using his foot speed advantage to box outside and keep Provodnikov at bay with his length and power, but that there was a decent chance Provodnikov's pressure would overwhelm Alvarado resulting in Provodnikov getting the win by TKO/KO.

After Round 1 it was clear to me that I: 1) underestimated Provodnikov's lateral movement and ability to pressure more mobile fighters and 2) overestimated Alvarado's foot speed and ability to keep Provodnikov at bay. Provodnikov cut off the ring extremely well in this round and set the tone for how he'd wear Alvarado down round by round. I'd thought Alvarado would be able to use lateral movement and boxing skills to carry the fight similar to Tim Bradley in his more successful rounds vs. Provodnikov and similar to his second fight vs. Brandon Rios. The problem with my analysis was that Mike Alvarado does not have anywhere near the lateral movement and boxing skills Tim Bradley has and Provodnikov is a better pressure fighter than Rios and packs an even harder punch (especially when going to the body).

Alvarado actually did have a lot of success early in the fight boxing on the outside, confusing Provodnikov by switching to a southpaw stance and keeping Provodnikov honest with lead right hands and uppercuts (after 6 rounds I actually had Alvarado winning the fight by 3 points), but Provodnikov's foot movement and ability to cut Alvarado off in the ring was a lot better than what I thought it would be. Alvarado was outlanding Provodnikov in most of the early rounds, but Provodnikov wore Alvarado down round-by-round with vicious power shots and eventually caught up to him in the 8th round, knocking him down twice (the first two knockdowns of Alvarado's career) in what would signal the beginning of the end of the fight.

Another key to Provodnikov winning the fight was his excellent chin. There were a few spots in the early rounds of the fight where Alvarado did stand in and brawl; Alvarado actually had good success in most of these exchanges and landed nearly half (49.7%) of his power punches over the first six rounds of the fight. The difference in the fight was that Provodnikov's chin was able to withstand those power punches (he actually laughed many of them off), while Provodnikov's power eventually broke Alvarado down.

This was a highly entertaining fight which should leave fight fans looking forward to seeing both Provodnikov and Alvarado (especially Provodnikov) fight again. Provodnikov has proven that he's a better boxer than a lot of people give him credit for and, under Freddie Roach's tutelage, the sky's the limit.  However, it remains to be seen whether Provodnikov can defeat the uber-elite boxers in his weight range (Mayweather, Pacquaio, Bradley, Marquez, Garcia, Matthysse). Provodnikov's defense is still very suspect... Alvarado did land 46% of his power shots in the fight while Bradley landed 43% of his power shots in his fight vs. Provodnikov back in March. As outstanding as Provodnikov's chin is (and it's possible he has the best chin in the sport), he will never be an elite boxer if he continues to allow his opponents to land power punches at such a high percentage. His defense must improve, especially given the plethora of power punchers in the light welterweight and welterweight divisions he fights in. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Bernard Hopkins and Karo Murat.

Bradley vs. Marquez: postfight analysis

Outcome: Bradley defeats Marquez by split decision to retain WBO welterweight title
Judge Scorecards: Robert Hoyle 115-113 | Patricia Morse Jarman 116-112 | Glenn Farman 113-115

Master Class Boxing Scorecard: 116-112 (Bradley)

(click here to view judges' round-by-round scoring)

(click here to view CompuBox PunchStats)

(click here to view full postfight press conference)

Round-by-Round Scoring Recap

Round 1: Close, feel-out round. Bradley threw more punches (which would be the norm throughout the fight) and established his jab early but Marquez landed a few more punches than Bradley and landed the cleaner, harder punches. Marquez landed a few left hooks and uppercuts to edge out a very close round. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 10-9 Marquez

Round 2: Clear round for Bradley. Bradley jabbed very effectively and used lateral movement well to elude Marquez's counter-punching skills. Bradley landed a hard right hand, solid body shot to the liver area and got the best of Marquez in a nice exchange of punches towards the end of the round. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 19-19 Even

Round 3: Very close round. Marquez showed good timing and landed the harder, more accurate shots but Bradley continued to jab effectively, throwing and landing more punches in the round. Bradley moved well and continued to control the pace. Close, but key to round was Bradley outworked Marquez 38-25 in punches thrown and landed 10 punches to Marquez's 6. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 29-28 Bradley

Round 4: Another close round. Bradley is still controlling the pace of the fight with his left jab and movement and is continuing to outwork Marquez in terms of punches thrown and landed. However, Marquez landed the more solid, accurate punches in the round and got the better of Bradley in a nice exchange near the end of the round. Referee Robert Byrd briefly stopped the fight in the first half of the round and instructed Marquez's corner to wipe the excess vaseline off his body. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 38-38 Even

Round 5: Yet another competitive round that follows the pattern of most of the previous rounds. Bradley is having success with the left jab and is clearly controlling the pace of the fight. Again Bradley is outworking Marquez, throwing and landing more punches (and landing at a higher percentage than Marquez). When Marquez is landing, his punches tend to be more accurate and powerful than the shots Bradley landed but Bradley has not been affected by Marquez's power and outworked Marquez enough to clearly win the round (though the round was somewhat close). Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 48-47 Bradley

Round 6: More of the same. Bradley is continuing to outwork Marquez and is still controlling the fight with his left jab and foot movement. Marquez is still landing a few solid, accurate shots but Bradley is countering Marquez's punches with right hands and left hooks of his own. Bradley is consistently beating Marquez to the punch with his hand speed, countering well when Marquez throws punches. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 58-56 Bradley

Round 7: Another round very similar to previous rounds. Marquez is landing solid punches in spots but Bradley is consistently outworking Marquez and controlling the pace of the fight with his jabs, lateral movement, and hands speed. In this round, Bradley throws and lands more jabs than in any of the previous rounds. Bradley is the more active fighter in this round (as he's seemingly been in every round of the fight thus far) and his hand and foot speed advantage is becoming more apparent. Bradley landed 19 punches to Marquez's 13 in Round 7. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 68-65 Bradley

Round 8: Marquez lands a few solid right hands, including a hard body shot towards the end of the round but again Bradley is controlling the pace of the fight, outworking Marquez with his jabs and speed advantage. Bradley lands a few multiple punch combinations to take the round. Neither fighter's punches is hurting the other but Bradley's work rate and ability to elude Marquez's counter punches are the difference in this round and the fight overall. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 78-74 Bradley

Round 9:  Clear round for Marquez. Marquez started the round aggressive and landed the more accurate and powerful punches. Marquez outlands Bradley for the first time in the fight since Round 1 (22 punches landed for Marquez; 16 in favor of Bradley). Marquez is effective with his straight right hand and lands a couple of nice combinations to win the round going away. This is Marquez's best round in the fight. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 87-84 Bradley

Round 10:  Most exciting round of the fight thus far. Numerous flurries of punches in this round. Bradley scored a few nice combinations in the round but Marquez countered with his own, which got the crowd (a pro-Marquez crowd which up to this round had been frustrated with the lack of action from both fighters) behind Marquez again. Marquez landed a few solid shots in this round, including a right uppercut early and a clean body shot towards the end of the round. However, Bradley appeared to control the round overall with (similar to previous rounds) his work rate, jab, and movement in the ring. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 97-93 Bradley

Round 11: Marquez is noticeably more active in this round than he's been in most previous rounds, stalking Bradley and appearing to throw and land more meaningful punches overall. Bradley is less active (perhaps a bit fatigued) and mostly resorts to landing single shots before retreating. Marquez lands a few nice body shots in the round. Neither fighter lands any huge punches but Marquez wins the round primarily due to lack of activity from Bradley, who was mostly on the defensive. (It's likely Bradley knows he's ahead and is playing it safe.) Marquez had a 14-4 advantage in power shots landed in Round 11. Round: 10-9 Marquez, Score: 106-103 Marquez

Round 12:  Close round. Marquez continues to stay aggressive in this round, stalking Bradley who is using good movement to avoid Marquez's aggression. As in previous rounds, Bradley is having success using his jab and movement to elude Marquez's advances. Bradley is also countering Marquez's aggression effectively with some solid shots. This was an even round, perhaps with Marquez slightly ahead until the final heavy exchange of punches towards the end of the round which Bradley got the best of, including a left hook that almost sends Marquez to the canvas. Round: 10-9 Bradley, Score: 116-112 Bradley

Postfight Summary

This fight basically went as I predicted in my prefight analysis. Bradley clearly learned his lesson from the Provodnikov fight, using his speed advantage, defensive abilities, and jab to stay control the pace of the fight and outbox Marquez. Although Marquez tended to land the more crisp and accurate punches when he connected (Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley according to CompuBox stats), his overall activity was low compared to Bradley, who threw and landed more punches than Marquez. In terms of scoring, the difference in the fight for me was the middle four rounds (Rounds 5-8), all of which I gave to Bradley. 

Bradley has outstanding lateral movement and a low center of gravity elusiveness which made it difficult for Marquez to land any meaningful punches the whole fight. Marquez did land more power punches than Bradley in the fight, but Bradley was never in any serious danger during the fight. Marquez is one of the great counter punchers of this era but, as I expected, Bradley's lateral movement, speed advantage, and jab effectively neutralized Marquez's counter punching skills. If Bradley had fought the same fight he fought vs. Provodnikov (i.e., stood in the pocket and exchanged punches), Marquez probably would've won the fight. But it's very difficult for a counter puncher to outbox someone with such a significant foot and hand speed advantage and enough ring savvy to use those advantages to elude counters. There were quite a few close, competitive rounds but I thought Bradley clearly won the fight. (Interesting fact: the official judges disagreed on how to score 7 out of the 12 rounds in the fight, including 3 out of the first 4 rounds and 4 out of the last 5 rounds.) 

Bradley is still undefeated and is now Ring Magazine's #3 pound-for-pound boxer. So what's next for Bradley? Floyd Mayweather and Adrien Broner seem unlikely as they are both affiliated with Golden Boy Promotions, a direct competitor of Top Rank Promotions, the promotional company Tim Bradley is affiliated with. (Golden Boy and Top Rank have an oft-publicized acrimonious relationship.) It would seem the winner of the Pacquaio/Rios fight in November or the winner of the Alvarado/Provodnikov fight on HBO would be the most likely candidates. 

Hope you enjoyed this blog! Our next analysis will discuss the October 19th fight between Mike Alvarado and Ruslan Provodnikov.