Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin -  Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward,  British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit) 

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Lomachenko vs. Pedraza: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (11-1, 9 KOs) vs. Jose Pedraza (25-1, 12 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 8, 2018
Weight class: Lightweight (135 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World and WBA Super World lightweight titles
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -3700, Pedraza: +2600 (5 Dimes, 12/7/18)
Purse: Lomachenko: $1 million, Pedraza: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine lightweight champion, Pedraza: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Pedraza: Orthodox
Referee: Harvey Dock

Why you should watch this fight

Despite recent impressive wins by Canelo Alvarez and Oleksandr Usyk that moved them up the pound-for-pound rankings, the two fighters most frequently touted as pound-for-pound the best fighters in the sport of boxing are Vasyl Lomachenko and Terence Crawford. Crawford, an undefeated welterweight who - like Lomachenko is promoted by Bob Arum's Top Rank Boxing promotional company - staked his claim this past October as the top boxer in the sport with an impressive 12th-round TKO victory over a then-undefeated, highly-touted fighter in Jose Benavidez Jr.

Lomachenko - who is currently rated as the #1 fighter in the sport by both Ring Magazine and ESPN - is coming off of one of the better performances of his career this past May with a 10th round TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title, making him the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win major titles in three weight classes (doing so after only 12 professional fights). Lomachenko is looking to top Crawford's performance this past October Saturday night in a unification title fight vs. WBO lightweight champion Jose Pedraza, a Puerto Rican fighter who should have ample crowd support within the confines of Madison Square Garden in New York City - the city with the largest population of Puerto Ricans in the world.

Pedraza - who represented Puerto Rico as a lightweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing - is a crafty, defensively-solid fighter who moves well on his feet and can fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance. Pedraza doesn't quite have the technical skills or power of Lomachenko's previous opponent (Linares) but he will enjoy a 5.5" reach advantage coming into Saturday night's fight and is a more natural lightweight than Lomachenko, who will be fighting at lightweight for just the second time in his professional career. Pedraza was stopped nearly two years ago in his final fight as a super featherweight (130 lbs) by a 22-year old Gervonta Davis - in what has been the only loss of his career - but has won three straight unanimous decision since then after moving up to lightweight, including a unanimous decision over Raymundo Beltran in his last fight for the WBO lightweight title.

Lomachenko, a two-time Olympic gold medalist who has arguably had the greatest amateur career in the history of boxing (highlighted by those two Olympic gold medals and a career amateur record of 396-1), is a historically great talent who - after only 12 professional fights - is already a lock for the hall-of-fame. The question now is whether he will continue to live up to the hype as possibly the best fighter in the sport today - and possibly the best fighter of the post-Mayweather era. Lomachenko has won his last eight fights by stoppage; Saturday night's fight vs. a lightweight champion in Pedraza -who has been stopped in the past by a possible future Lomachenko opponent in Gervonta Davis - will be the latest gauge of Lomachenko's greatness.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight doesn't require much extended analysis. Lomachenko is (by far) the heaviest favorite I've done a prediction for (a 1-37 favorite at the time of this writing), so there should be no surprise that I'm taking him to win (and win convincingly).

I mean there's probably at least some value in taking a one-loss champion with very solid, world-class skills in Pedraza at massive 26-1 odds. Pedraza will actually come into tomorrow night's fight with some of the same qualities Tyson Fury possessed in last week's classic heavyweight title fight with Deontay Wilder (which most felt Fury won as an underdog). Like Fury, Pedraza is essentially an ambidextrous boxer who can frustrate any opponent by giving different looks from both the orthodox and southpaw stances. Like Fury, Pedraza is an at times awkward fighter adept at throwing punches from unorthodox angles. Like Fury, Pedraza comes into this fight with a reach advantage (a significant 5.5" reach advantage over Lomachenko in tomorrow night's fight) and moves very well on his feet, which should give Pedraza some ability to elude Lomachenko's attack (as prodigious as his attack may be) from distance. And like Fury, Pedraza is the slightly taller, naturally bigger fighter so might be able to use his size advantage combined with quick hand speed to make the fight physically difficult for Lomachenko on the inside.

Pedraza - as he showed in his most recent fight vs. Beltran and even in the only loss of his career vs. Davis - is a very tough fighter who I think could give Lomachenko problems for a few rounds with his versatility, movement, and ability to throw punches from unpredictable angles (and in this fight potentially throw those punches from distance given his significant reach advantage). It's also essential to point out that tomorrow night's fight will be Lomachenko's first fight after a shoulder surgery in late May to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. (Lomachenko injured the shoulder in the second round of his last fight vs. Linares which affected his performance throughout the rest of the fight.)

But unless Lomachenko suffers another freak injury - as with every fighter Lomachenko has faced since his 2014 loss to Orlando Salido in only his second fight as a pro - the talent gap between Lomachenko and Pedraza will be too much for Pedraza to overcome. Despite his savvy and legitimate world-class skills, the rub with Pedraza is that he doesn't have the punching power or athleticism Linares did in his fight with Lomachenko (which was very competitive) to keep Lomachenko honest and ward off his attack into the middle and late rounds.

I think as the fight progresses, Lomachenko will get to a point where he is able to stalk and apply effective pressure at will, eventually figuring out the timing on the at-times elusive and tricky Puerto Rican for a late stoppage victory. Pedraza is a tough, crafty, two-time world champion who will have some decent crowd support from what should be a decent-sized Puerto Rican contingent at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night. I expect him to eventually try to stand in close and exchange but Lomachenko is too elusive with his footwork on defense and accurate with his punch combinations offensively; he'll frustrate Pedraza and accumulate enough punches to most likely earn a stoppage in the later rounds, though there is a chance the fight goes the distance for a wide Lomachenko decision if Loma can't get the stoppage late.

Pedraza is a nice B+-level fighter and a worthy world champion but will be overmatched by Lomachenko's A+-level footwork and overall skills (as all recent Lomachenko opponents have been). Barring another injury, tomorrow night should be yet another dominant performance by Lomachenko in his quest to go down as one of the all-time greats in this history of the sport.

Prediction: Lomachenko by TKO/KO 

Recommended bet: Lomachenko by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit) 

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Broner vs. Vargas: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-3, 24 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (28-2, 10 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 21, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 144 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  None
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner: +120, Vargas: -130 (5 Dimes, 4/21/18)
Purses: Broner: $1 million, Vargas: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: Not ranked, Vargas: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Why you should watch this fight

As indicated by the betting odds, Broner vs. Vargas is a fairly even-matched fight between Adrien Broner, an immensely talented boxer who's won major world titles in an impressive four different weight classes (and was the youngest fighter in boxing history to do so), and Jessie Vargas, a skilled fighter in his own right who's won major world titles in two weight classes.

Both fighters are in their late 20s and still very much in their primes, but for both, this fight is likely a true "last chance" to keep their names amongst the mix of the top fighters in the welterweight (147 lbs) and junior welterweight (140 lbs) divisions; the loser of this fight will likely - and perhaps permanently - be relegated to gatekeeper status.

Broner - at one time rated as high as the #5 pound-for-pound fighter in the world by Ring Magazine - suffered the first loss of his career 3.5 years ago vs. aggressive power-puncher Marcos Maidana. Broner also lost (decisively) the two times he stepped up to fight A-level competition - a wide unanimous decision loss to Shawn Porter in the summer of 2015 and, in his most recent fight 7 months ago, another clear unanimous decision loss to (undefeated) current junior welterweight champion Mikey Garcia. A loss to a respected. but relatively unheralded Vargas would possibly be the worst loss of his career and perhaps be confirmation Broner doesn't have the physical (or mental) skills or ability to beat a top-level opponent.

Vargas has had similar opportunities to break through vs. A-level opponents - his fight vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. in 2015 and his fight vs. Manny Pacquiao for the WBO welterweight title in 2016. Like Broner, both opportunities resulted in wide unanimous decision losses. A loss to Broner would actually be the worst loss of his career and solidify his status in a currently stacked welterweight division as a gatekeeper (as opposed to legitimate title contender).

But the winner of this fight will likely find himself right back in the mix near the top of the welterweight (or light welterweight) division and would be a prime candidate for a title shot in their next fight. (A title shot that could conceivably be accompanied by a 7-figure payday.)

Broner vs. Vargas is the headliner for a stacked card which also features former light middleweight (154 lbs) champion Jermall Charlo - who has recently moved up in weight and will be fighting the second middleweight fight of his career vs. Hugo Centeno Jr. - and former super featherweight champion Gervonta Davis, an electrifying, young knockout puncher seeking to regain the super featherweight title after losing it on the scales last year on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor PPV event.

Prefight Analysis

I see Broner vs. Vargas as a relatively even matchup between two B+-level fighters and, quite frankly, there are more tangible reasons to pick Broner than Vargas in this fight.

Broner is unquestionably the more talented fighter with the superior set of skills in this matchup. He's more athletic, has quicker hands and feet, is the more accurate and efficient puncher, has superior punching power, and has better defensive fundamentals.

Although Broner has lost every time he's stepped up to face A-level competition very few observers, if any, would consider Vargas to be an A-level fighter. (Vargas himself has lost the two times he's stepped up to face A-level competition.) To be fair, Broner was reasonably competitive in his most recent loss vs. Garcia, losing a few rounds that were actually fairly close. Most of the rounds Broner lost in that fight (as well as most of the rounds he lost in his two previous losses to Maidana and Porter) were due to essentially being forced to box off his back foot (i.e., box while backing up) in deference to his opponent's high-level punching power and effective aggression. One would think Broner will be more aggressive and take more risks vs. Vargas - a fighter with a career TKO/KO percentage of only 33% (10 wins by TKO or KOsin 30 career fights) who doesn't have anywhere near the punching power of any of the fighters Broner has lost to previously.

Vargas is a scrappy, but somewhat predictable fighter who boxes mostly behind a straightforward (though solid) jab and basic 1-2 punch combinations. He comes into this fight with a 4" height and 2" reach advantage but has shown in previous fights a willingness to give up his height and reach advantage to fight inside, which could easily be to Broner's advantage given his superior hand speed, accuracy, and power.

Broner, in my opinion, is the fighter more likely to easily adjust to the 144-lb catchweight for this fight; he's fought 7 of his last 8 fights over the past 4 years below 144 lbs. Vargas, on the other hand, hasn't fought below welterweight (147 lbs) since 2014 so may be more prone to feeling the effects of weight drain coming into fight night. (It was in fact Broner who requested the catchweight for this fight, presumably to gain an advantage on Vargas who is more accustomed at the higher weight limit.)

Overall, I see Broner as the superior, more talented boxer who is well aware that a loss here would likely be the most devastating of his career and perhaps permanently end any consideration of him as a top-level fighter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Broner, fighting for the first time under new trainer Kevin Cunningham, put on a strong performance and get the win here - especially as the "A-side" of this boxing promotion in front of what I expect to be a pro-Broner crowd in NYC. (Vargas is a West Coast fighter who casual boxing fans on the East Coast are largely unfamiliar with.)

But while I think there are more reasons than not that Broner *should* win, I'm picking Vargas to win this fight. Despite Broner's (numerous) advantages, I think the key to this fight will be punch activity; Vargas is actually a more active puncher than Mikey Garcia, who outworked Broner in Broner's most recent fight by throwing nearly twice as many punches despite being the naturally smaller boxer. I rate Vargas as a slightly more talented version of Adrian Granados - a fighter with a pedestrian resume who Broner barely beat by split decision last year in his hometown of Cincinnati (despite getting decisively outworked by Granados, who threw nearly 300 more punches than Broner). Broner has consistently demonstrated issues with punch (in)activity throughout his career vs. even mediocre opponents and has a proven habit of fighting down to his level of opposition; I fully expect Vargas to be the aggressor and outwork Broner as most of his recent opponents have done. Note that in the past, Vargas has gotten the benefit of a few very close, controversial decisions largely by outworking his opponent (see his fights vs. Josesito Lopez and Wale Omotoso as prime examples); a matchup vs. a relatively punch-selective Broner is another fight where Vargas has stands a good chance of eking out a victory on the judges' scorecards based on activity if the fight happens to be close either way.

Vargas doesn't have Broner's quickness or defensive abilities, but is skilled enough to stay out of real trouble vs. a typically risk-averse Broner who I think at the end of the day will stay true to his usual form and not take too many chances in this fight. It's also worth noting that the impressive power Broner demonstrated at lower weights earlier in his career hasn't carried up as well to higher weight classes; at below 140 lbs Broner is undefeated and boasts an 85% TKO/KO percentage (22 KOs in 26 fights). In his 4 fights above 140 lbs, Broner is 2-2 with no wins by TKO or KO.

As mentioned previously Vargas, like Broner, has yet to defeat an A-level opponent. However he was reasonably competitive vs. Bradley (who he arguably came close to stopping near the end of the 12th round of their fight) and Pacquiao (where one judge had him losing by only a single point), and earned an impressive 9th round stoppage victory vs. then undefeated Sadam Ali, who is currently the light middleweight champion of the world after beating future hall-of-fame fighter Miguel Cotto (in what was promoted as the final fight of Cotto's career) by unanimous decision. (So Vargas has stepped up and generally fought well vs. high-level opposition despite losing most of those fights.)

As shown with some of his antics leading up to the fight - which included confrontations with the lead promoter of the event, other fighters on the card, and even a Brooklyn-based rapper - Broner appears to lack professionalism and seriousness in his prefight preparations. Broner has actually performed below expectations in nearly every fight he's fought since his impressive TKO victory over then WBC lightweight champion Antonio DeMarco in 2012 - including even the fights he's won. I like Broner personally but see little to indicate that things will change vs. Vargas despite the obvious importance of this fight to his career.

I see Vargas's work rate and typical scrappiness vs. Broner's efficient but low-volume, reluctant-to-take-risk style resulting in a close fight that likely goes Vargas's way. I can't see Vargas stopping a tough-chinned Broner (who's fairly solid defensively and has never really come close to being stopped in his career), so see the best bet on this fight as Vargas to win by decision - which can currently be found as high as +135 on Bookmaker.

 At the end of the day, this fight is less predictable than most given that 1) this is the first fight of Broner's professional career under new trainer Kevin Cunningham (thus difficult to anticipate whether the new trainer will positively or negatively impact Broner's performance), 2) the fight will be fought at a 144-lb catchweight (again, difficult to predict the impact the catchweight will have on each fighter though, as mentioned above, I suspect the catchweight will favor Broner), and 3) both fighters have been relatively inactive recently, each having fought only once in the past 14 months.

But in many ways this is an even matchup featuring clashing styles which should make for an interesting and entertaining fight no matter who emerges victorious.I'll be at this fight Saturday night and looking forward to see what unfolds!

Prediction: Vargas by decision

Recommended bet(s): 1) Vargas by 12 round decision (1 unit) 

2) Broner/Vargas goes the full 12 round distance (.33 unit)

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Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (39-0, 38 KOs) vs. Luis Ortiz (28-0, 24 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 3, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Wilder: -325, Ortiz: +295 (5 Dimes, 3/3/18)
Purses: Wilder: $2.1 million, Ortiz: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Ortiz: #5 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Ortiz: Southpaw
Referee: David Fields

Why you should watch this fight

A once long-dormant heavyweight division has been heating up over the past couple of years with the emergence of undefeated stars like Anthony Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Luis Ortiz, and Australian Jason Parker to once again become one of the most exciting divisions in the sport. (Undefeated Tyson Fury, who ended Wladimir Klitschko's nearly decade-long reign as heavyweight champion in 2015 is also reportedly making a return to the ring this year after a more than two-year hiatus.)

All four major heavyweight titles are currently held by Joshua (WBA, IBF), Wilder (WBC), and Parker (WBO); this Saturday's fight between Wilder and Ortiz in Brooklyn and the fight later this month (March 31st) between Joshua and Parker in the United Kingdom essentially serve as semifinal matchups for a superfight later this year or early next year that hopefully crowns the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in nearly 18 years (Lennox Lewis in 2000).

Wilder is one of the most feared and avoided boxers in the sport - the WBC heavyweight champion who boasts a perfect record 39-0, with 38 of those wins (97.4%) coming by TKO/KO. Half (19) of those 38 knockouts have come in the first round, including his most recent fight last November - a rematch vs. Bermane Stiverne. Wilder has excellent power in both hands (particularly his right) and - in knocking out Stiverne last November - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his professional career. (In their first fight back in January 2015, Stiverne went the full 12 round distance with Wilder, losing a unanimous decision.)

Wilder, who has been heavyweight champion for three years (since beating Stiverne to earn the title), will be making his seventh title defense vs. undefeated Cuban heavyweight Luis Ortiz. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also a feared, heavily-avoided fighter with excellent power - only two of his scored 28 professional fights have gone the distance, with the other 26 ending in victory by early TKO/KO/DQ. (Ortiz also had two other fights that ended as an early stoppage victory but were later ruled no contests and struck from his win-loss record.)

Ortiz is by far the toughest opponent Wilder has faced in his career and is considered by most observers to have better overall skills than Wilder. At 38 years old, Ortiz is looking to win his first major world title belt. Ortiz is also attempting to become the first Cuban fighter - and first Latino born outside the United States - in boxing history to win a heavyweight title.

Again, Wilder vs. Ortiz will be one of the more significant fights to take place this year - the winner will be in line for a fight vs. the winner of Joshua vs. Parker (a fight that takes place in a few weeks) to determine the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world (assuming the politics of boxing don't get in the way and the fight can actually be made).

Prefight Analysis

All things considered, Wilder is the guy who I feel will probably win this fight. Wilder has exceptional power in both hands (to the point of - as I've mentioned above - having knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career), is in his prime, and is facing a past-prime fighter in a 38-year old Ortiz who can't match Wilder's athleticism or speed. Ortiz can box on the move but, given his relative deficit in athleticism and speed compared to Wilder, I find it unlikely he'll be able to evade Wilder's game-changing punching power for a full 12 rounds.

I expect Wilder's above-average jab and rangy boxing style - augmented by an 83" reach and 7' wingspan - to do a decent enough job of keeping Ortiz's offensive attack at bay. (More precisely, I expect Wilder's ability to box from distance, his quicker foot movement, as well as Ortiz's respect of Wilder's knockout power, to largely nullify Ortiz's clear advantage in boxing skill.) Wilder is a supremely confident, determined fighter who's made it known that he wants to go down as one of the all-time greats. Perhaps it's more talk and bravado than "all-time great"-caliber substance but I truly believe Wilder flat out just wants to win this fight more than Ortiz and that that desire will go a long way towards carrying him to victory here. Wilder is one of my favorite boxers - I'm rooting for him to win this fight and would grade him at approximately 55-60% to get the victory Saturday night.

But with all that said, it's tough to overlook the value of Ortiz as a 3-1 underdog. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also undefeated with impressive power (as evidenced by his career 80% TKO/KO ratio). And like Wilder, Ortiz has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career. But Ortiz is almost certainly the more skilled, versatile fighter in this matchup. Ortiz is a high-level, Cuban-schooled technical boxer with extensive amateur experience (an impressive 343-19 record in the amateurs) facing a still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder who's arguably not shown much in the way skill other than a solid, rangy (though often basic and predictable) jab to complement his explosive power and athleticism. Though not his fault (as he's consistently called out top-level competition to fight him and has even been more than willing to travel overseas in hostile territory for big fights), Wilder has yet as a pro to face an elite heavyweight -  Ortiz will be by far the best he'll have faced thus far in his career.

Ortiz likely has the advantage in a pure boxing match, and also in fighting from close distance as he's proven in numerous fights to be a skilled inside fighter - whereas Wilder has actually struggled on the inside vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's recent fights vs. Gerald Washington, Artur Spilka, and Eric Molina). If Ortiz can use his superior boxing skill to evade Wilder's power (in particular limit the effectiveness of Wilder's right hand) he has an excellent chance of winning the fight to the point where I wouldn't be at all surprised if he stops Wilder in the mid to late rounds. Ortiz is the more accurate, savvy power puncher facing a fighter in Wilder who at times is prone to swinging wildly (thus leaving himself out of position and open to clean counterpunching) and whose chin has never been tested by an elite puncher.

There are reasons why even Wilder's promoter, Lou DiBella, was reluctant to take what is widely considered a high-risk, relatively low-reward fight for Wilder. Given his frequent mentions of UK heavyweight superstar Anthony Joshua in the prefight build-up to this fight, I suspect Wilder is at least somewhat overlooking this fight and perhaps underestimating Ortiz - who I'll point out again is a heavy-handed power puncher who has never come close to losing a fight in his professional career and is the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup.

I do think in this fight that Wilder's impressive power from distance - and superior athleticism and speed - is likely to overwhelm Ortiz's superior skill en route to a 39th victory by stoppage in his 40th fight. But given Ortiz's clear advantage in skill and experience - as well as the fight-changing punching power he himself brings to the table - I can't help but think Ortiz to win at (approximately) +300 odds is the best bet on this fight. If you're giving me +300 odds (even currently as high as +325 at some books) on the better skilled, more experienced and versatile fighter who's never come close to losing a fight (and who's never even been knocked down in his career), I'll take those odds almost every time. Especially when he's up against a guy who - despite an impressive record - has no experience vs. top-level competition and relies more on his athleticism and power than his still somewhat raw boxing abilities. But I will hedge the primary bet on Ortiz to win with what I feel is the most likely outcome of the fight - Wilder by TKO/KO (which can currently be found as low as -150 at Bovada).

I'll be at this fight Saturday night so regardless of the outcome I'm expecting some intense, explosive between these two heavy-handed heavyweights!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 1) Ortiz to win (risk .5 unit) 

2) Wilder by TKO/KO (to win .5 unit)

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Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (9-1, 7 KOs) vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux (17-0, 11 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 9, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World super featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -325, Rigondeaux: +295 (5 Dimes, 12/8/17)
Purses: Lomachenko: $1.2 million, Rigondeaux: $400,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked junior lightweight, Rigondeaux: #4 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked junior featherweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Rigondeaux: Southpaw
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

For hardcore boxing fans, Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux is right up there with Canelo vs. Golovkin and the first Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev matchup as one of the most anticipated fights in recent years between two pound-for-pound ranked fighters in their prime.

The aforementioned Canelo/Golovkin and Ward/Kovalev matchups were PPV-televised fights. At least in the United States. boxing fans with a basic cable subscription will be able to watch tomorrow's highly anticipated matchup for free on ESPN.

Saturday's matchup features arguably the two greatest fighters in the 120+ year history of organized amateur boxing and will be the first time in the history of the sport fighters who have each won multiple Olympic gold medals will have faced each other. As an amateur, Lomachenko had a boxing record of 396-1 and won Olympic gold representing the Ukraine in the 2008 (Beijing) and 2012 (London) Olympics, while Rigondeaux boasted an amateur boxing record of 463-12 and won Olympic gold representing Cuba in the 2000 (Sydney) and 2004 (Athens) Olympics.

Lomachenko - who first won a major world title 3.5 years ago in only his third professional fight - is widely regarded as a historically great talent with first ballot hall-of-fame potential and is considered by many to be the fighter most likely to end up being the greatest boxer of the post-Mayweather era (assuming Mayweather is retired for good this time). On Saturday, Lomachenko will be facing by far the toughest test in young professional career in Rigondeaux - an experienced master technician who has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career and who some would argue is even more skilled than even the uber-talented Lomachenko.

This fight between two top five pound-for-pound talents (Ring Magazine ranks Lomachenko and Rigondeaux as the #3 and #4 boxers in the world, respectively) should go a very long way to answering whether Lomachenko is truly deserving of the massive hype he's received as a potential all-time great and possible best boxer of a post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation. On the other hand this fight also has the potential of being a career-defining win for Rigondeaux, a vastly underappreciated talent who has long been one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (if not the best), but has been sharply criticized for his elusive, fan-unfriendly boxing style, weak level of opposition, and general inactivity. (Rigondeaux has fought only four times in the past three years and fought only three full rounds in the past two years.) If a 37-year old Rigondeaux - who has fought his entire professional career at super bantamweight (122 lbs) - can jump up two weight classes and put on an impressive performance at super featherweight (130 lbs) vs. a fighter in Lomachenko whom many have pegged as a future hall-of-famer after only ten professional fights, it should go a long way towards silencing his numerous doubters and solidifying his own claim as one of the best boxers of this generation.

Why Vasyl Lomachenko will win

After only ten professional fights, Lomachenko is considered by many boxing fans and experts alike to be arguably the best boxer in the sport pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine currently has him ranked #3 pound-for-pound, while ESPN has him ranked #2) and a fighter who may potentially go down as one of the greatest boxers the sport has ever seen.

Lomachenko - the current WBO super featherweight champion of the world - has perhaps the most impressive record in the history of amateur boxing (career amateur boxing record of 396-1 record, double Olympic gold medalist, two-time amateur boxing world champion). He was also able to win a major world title in only his third professional fight and became a two-division world champion (at featherweight and super featherweight) in only his seventh professional fight, both records for the fewest fights at the start of a professional career to achieve these feats.

Lomachenko's hype and impressive achievements are the result of what appears to be freakish, historically great talent and skill. Lomachenko is a master technician with exceptional footwork and impeccable timing. His deft footwork in particular appears to be the root of his greatness, allowing him to throw precise punches from unorthodox, unpredictable angles with power as well as dominate the tempo of fights by controlling distance with his movement. He is a highly intelligent pressure fighter who throws punches at a high volume with very good hand speed and great accuracy.

Given Lomachenko's high volume, pressure-oriented style, one should expect him to be more active and consistently throw more punches than the relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - who will primarily be looking to counter Lomachenko's offensive attack.

Since his split decision loss 3.5 years ago to Orlando Salido (a fight that was only the 2nd fight of Lomachenko's professional career in which Salido failed to make weight and came in to the fight 21 pounds over the 126 lb weight limit), Lomachenko has won eight straight fights - with the last six by TKO/KO in dominating fashion. Still very early in his professional career, Lomachenko appears to be improving with each fight, with performances so dominant in recent fights that his last three opponents - including highly regarded and then-undefeated Nicholas Walters - voluntarily quit on their stools during the middle rounds of their fights.

As a 130 lb super featherweight world title holder who won Olympic gold and was a world champion as an amateur at lightweight (135 lbs), Lomachenko will likely enter Saturday's matchup with a noticeable weight advantage vs. the physically smaller Rigondeaux - who is moving two weight classes up from super bantamweight (122 lbs) to fight at 130 lbs for the first time in his boxing career, professional or amateur. Lomachenko's experience at the higher weight class combined with his versatile set of skills and superior athleticism may prove to be overwhelming vs. even an unquestionably elite pound-for-pound fighter in Rigondeaux. Rigondeaux is a defensively-gifted counterpuncher with very underrated power but one has to wonder how well that power will carry up two weight classes for a past-prime, 37-year old fighter who has been relatively inactive in recent years. (Rigondeaux has fought only three full rounds the past three years and fought only once in each of the past three years.)

Lomachenko's lone loss was to a pressure fighter in Salido who used high punch volume, a significant weight advantage, and experience to essentially bully a relatively inexperienced Lomachenko in the early rounds of their fight en route to a controversial split decision victory. Rigondeaux is a much smaller, low-volume counter puncher who doesn't have the pressure style that Salido used over 3 years ago to defeat a now much more experienced Lomachenko.

Lomachenko's pressuring style leaves him susceptible to counter punching at times but his excellent footwork, as well as frequent and varied upper body and punch feints makes him very difficult to time and hit cleanly. One shouldn't be surprised if even Rigondeaux's highly accurate counter punching and superior hand speed have trouble finding the target vs. Lomachenko's crafty defense. Even if Rigondeaux is able to land punches, one has to wonder how effective the punching power of a career super bantamweight will be vs. a bigger fighter who has never been knocked down in his professional career and has only been knocked down once in 397 amateur fights. Rigondeaux, on the other hand, has been knocked down four times across three fights at 122 lbs vs. smaller fighters with less power than Lomachenko.

At Madison Square Garden in New York City Lomachenko and his engaging, crowd-pleasing style will be the clear fan favorite vs. Rigondeaux and his low-volume, defensively-oriented tactics, which have been criticized by numerous boxing observers as "boring." Note that the pro-Lomachenko crowd and Lomachenko's fan-friendly ring style - complete with aggressive, accurate, and clean power punching that judges tend to favor - stand a good chance of creating a scoring bias in favor of Lomachenko if the fight is close and competitive. (In other words, I think it will be difficult for Rigondeaux to win this fight on the judges' scorecards unless he completely dominates Lomachenko.)

Lomachenko is younger (by 8 years) than the 37-year old Rigondeaux and is the more ambitious fighter - as evidenced by his willingness to take on elite fighters like Rigondeaux so early in his professional career; every fight he's fought since his first professional fight has been a major world title fight vs. a solid opponent. Rigondeaux comes into Saturday's matchup as an underappreciated 3-1 underdog who feels he has a lot to prove but I think Lomachenko is the more determined, ambitious fighter fighting to establish a legacy that will perhaps render him one of the great fighters of this (or any) generation; an impressive performance vs. Rigondeaux would go a long way towards building that legacy. 

Why Guillermo Rigondeaux will win

Like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine has him ranked #4, while ESPN has him at #7). Also like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has an impressive amateur boxing pedigree that includes two Olympic gold medals and multiple international amateur championships. In his professional career, Rigondeaux is undefeated (17-0) and is the current WBA super bantamweight champion of the world.

Rigondeaux arguably hasn't even come close to losing a fight since turning pro in 2009 and he hasn't lost a fight as an amateur or pro since 2003.

As excellent and highly regarded as Lomachenko is, many actually consider Rigondeaux to be the superior boxer overall. Hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach, who trained Rigondeaux early in his career, noted that Rigondeaux was "the best counter puncher" and "probably the greatest talent" he'd ever seen. Indeed, Rigondeaux is universally regarded as a master counter puncher with superior hand speed and punching power to that of Lomachenko's (though it remains to be seen how well Rigondeaux's very underrated power carries up two weight classes to super featherweight). Rigondeaux's counter punching is particularly effective to the body, where he's been able to land his powerful straight left with regularity vs. most opponents. Regardless of size advantage - if Rigondeaux can land even some of those body shots vs. Lomachenko, it will likely go a long way towards wearing Lomachenko down by the latter rounds of the fight.

While Lomachenko is the bigger guy who will come into the ring with a size and weight advantage Saturday night, it remains to be seen how effective Lomachenko will actually be in imposing his size on Rigondeaux. While he's certainly a skilled pressure fighter, Lomachenko has never been known as a particularly physical fighter - he's always relied much more on crafty movement, speed, and accuracy than physically imposing himself on his opponent with size and brute strength. So how valuable will Lomachenko's size advantage really be in this matchup?

Well-schooled in the highly-respected Cuban amateur boxing system, Rigondeaux is an extremely efficient, accurate counter puncher who might have the best defense in the entire sport with his excellent footwork and vertical/lateral elusiveness. Rigondeaux's 2.5-inch reach advantage over Lomachenko should enhance Rigondeaux's ability to counter punch from distance and elude Lomachenko's pressure.

One should also expect Rigondeaux's rare combination of hand speed, punching power (in both hands), and accuracy to at least somewhat stymie Lomachenko's attack. Rigondeaux has a history of freezing even highly-regarded opponents with precise counter punching. Remember that in 2013, Rigondeaux entered his fight with then-WBO super bantamweight champion Nonito Donaire - who had not lost a fight in over 12 years and was considered by most to be one of the top five boxers in the sport pound-for-for-pound at the time - as a 2-1 underdog. In that fight Rigondeaux put up probably the best performance of his professional career, ending Donaire's 30-fight win streak by outclassing him with timely counter punching and speed - dominating the fight despite Donaire's advantages in size and power. In his fight immediately following the Donaire fight, Rigondeaux similarly stymied former two-time IBF bantamweight champion Joseph Agbeko - a fight in which a normally tough and high-volume Agbeko landed only 48 punches over the course of 12 rounds (the second fewest punches landed over 12 rounds in the 32-year history of CompuBox-tracked fights).

Rigondeaux's relative inactivity in recent years (he's fought only four times over the past three years) may actually work as an advantage; given his lack of ring activity and cautious, defensively-oriented style, Rigondeaux has suffered very little wear-and-tear over the course of his 18-fight professional career. For a 37-year old fighter past his athletic prime, he is relatively fresh and has shown zero signs of slippage in speed or power in any of his recent fights.

Despite having fought only 18 career fights as a pro, Rigondeaux also has a slight advantage in professional boxing experience over Lomachenko, who is fighting in his 11th fight as only a 4th-year pro. A large part of the reason Lomachenko lost to a less-skilled Salido in 2014 was Salido's significant advantage in experience. Lomachenko has gained experience and has become a better fighter in the 3.5 years since that loss but Rigondeaux is infinitely more skilled than Salido and will be by far the toughest, most skilled opponent Lomachenko has fought (and likely will fight, regardless of who he faces in the future) in his career.   

This is the biggest fight of Rigondeaux's career. Coming into this fight as a significant underdog vs. a heavily glorified opponent and having taken a lot of criticism throughout his career for his inactivity and risk-averse style, Rigondeaux has a lot to prove. In the previous biggest fight of his career (vs. Donaire), Rigondeaux put up a technical masterpiece vs. a bigger, stronger opponent in what was probably the most brilliant performance of his career. He will surely be (highly) motivated to do the same Saturday night vs. Lomachenko.

Prefight Analysis

Given the elite pedigree and skills - as well as solid punching power - of both boxers, this is a fight that could end a number of possible different ways.

Despite being a significant underdog, Rigondeaux is the more experienced, quicker, and arguably the better overall skilled fighter (particularly from a defensive standpoint) in this matchup. Though he's the smaller fighter, he may also actually be the more dangerous puncher (at least in terms of one-punch knockout power). Unlike Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has never lost a fight in his professional carer (and has never really even come close to losing a fight) and has a history of making even well-respected, top-level opponents look mediocre (see his fights vs. former world champions Donaire and Agbeko).

There should be no surprise whatsoever if Rigondeaux is able to use elusive footwork, as well as his superior hand speed and counter punching abilities to outbox - perhaps even outclass - an immensely gifted but slightly slower and relatively inexperienced Lomachenko. And although it would be surprising, it wouldn't be a tremendous shocker to see Rigondeaux - whose punching power is often overlooked given his low-volume, defensively-oriented style - land enough clean power punches in countering Lomachenko's pressure to stop him in the late rounds. Assuming Rigondeaux's power holds up well at the higher weight class and assuming he hasn't lost much speed or power past his physical prime at 37-years old, taking Rigondeaux to win the fight at approximately +300 odds might be a decent value play.

But, at the end of the day, I see the two-weight class (8 lb) jump and size disparity to be a bit much for even a great defensive counter puncher like Rigondeaux to overcome. I see Rigondeaux facing similar challenges to the difficulties Kell Brook and Amir Khan had last year jumping up two weight classes (from welterweight to middleweight) to fight Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez. Both Brook and Khan were arguably more skilled than their bigger, pound-for-pound rated opponents and both even had success in the very early rounds, but the size advantage and power of Golovkin and Canelo proved to be overwhelming en route to brutal stoppage losses for both in the middle rounds. (And, after well over a year, neither Brook or Khan has fought again since being stopped.)

Rigondeaux is certainly more defensively skilled than Brook or Khan, and Lomachenko certainly does not have the power or the imposing size of a Golovkin or Canelo, but he has elite skill and precision - particularly shooting punches from unorthodox angles - to complement the respectable power he has. And Rigondeaux has shown a questionable chin even at the lower weight class vs. opponents with less punching power, having been knocked down four times in three of his previous fights.

Rigondeaux has a history of stymieing bigger, more aggressive opponents but at this higher weight class I think Lomachenko's size, pressure, and craftiness will be too much for even a defensively gifted Rigondeaux to handle - especially given Rigondeaux's lack of punch volume.

I don't see Rigondeaux's power carrying  up to 130 lbs as well as some might expect - especially vs. a fighter like Lomachenko who has shown a very good chin (having never come close to being knocked down in his brief professional career and being knocked down only once in a 397-fight amateur career) and is much more difficult to hit cleanly than previous top-level Rigondeaux opponents like Donaire and Agbeko with his excellent footwork and frequent body feints.

Also consider that if the fight ends up being close I'd expect the more entertaining, higher volume Lomachenko to get the nod on the judges' scorecards over a relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - especially in front of what will be a decidedly pro-Lomachenko crowd on a boxing card backed by Lomachenko's promoter, Top Rank. (In other words yes, I expect boxing politics to favor Lomachenko over the relatively unpopular Rigondeaux if the fight happens to be close.)

I think there is a pretty good chance Lomachenko overwhelms Rigondeaux and stops him in the later rounds but, given Rigondeaux's defensive prowess, I think it's more likely Rigondeaux is able to survive the full 12 rounds. Given the high IQ and crazy skills of both fighters I see this fight having more moments resembling a high-level chess match - where not many punches are landed - than of a bloody brawl. But whether it's by stoppage or by decision I think most signs point to a Lomachenko victory here, so would go with Lomachenko simply to win (currently at -325 odds) as your best bet. 

I'll be at this fight Saturday night; if the matchup in the ring is even half as good as the matchup on paper, we're in for a classic given the impressive pedigree and skill of both fighters!

Prediction: Lomachenko to win

Recommended bet: Lomachenko to win (1 unit)

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Broner vs. Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-2-0 24 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (36-0-0, 30 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: July 29, 2017
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia: -200, Broner: +185 (5 Dimes, 7/29/17)
Purse: Garcia: $1 million, Broner: $1 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #1 ranked lightweight, Broner: Not ranked (neither fighter is ranked at super lightweight)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Broner: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Of all the big fights this year between high-profile boxers this could very easily end up being the most entertaining of them all. You have an undefeated, three-division world champion in Mikey Garcia moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time in his career vs. a former four-division world champion in Adrien Broner, who comes into this fight as a significant underdog but is undefeated fighting below 147 lbs. Shortly after this fight was announced, Garcia was as high as a -720 (!) favorite over Broner but the odds have tightened considerably over the past few weeks to where Garcia is now only a little bit more than a -200 favorite at most sportsbooks.

As the undefeated - arguably more skilled - and more serious and composed fighter, Garcia understandably comes into this fight as the clear favorite. But Broner, despite his previous struggles vs. top-level contenders and immaturity in as well as outside of the ring, is a high IQ boxer in his own right with A-level talent and very good punching power at 140 lbs. There is also a potential size disparity here - Garcia's last fight was at lightweight (135 lbs) and he'll be moving up to 140 lbs to fight at a weight he's never fought at before while Broner's last  fight was at welterweight (147 lbs) and he'll be moving down to fight at a weight where he'll likely be more comfortable and have more effective punching power vs. his smaller opponent.

This fight is a clash between two of the more well-known non-PPV fighters in the sport. The fight is the biggest fight in both boxers' careers and is especially intriguing given both the clash in personalities (serious, laid-back, quiet Garcia vs. the often silly, brash, loquacious Broner) and clash in fighting styles (cautiously aggressive power puncher in Garcia vs. relatively low-output counter puncher in Broner). If Garcia wins on Saturday, he'll cement his return (after having fought just twice in the past 3.5 years due to a contract dispute with his previous promoter, Top Rank) as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and should set him up nicely for a big money fight - whether that's a title shot at 140 lbs or at title defense back down at 135 lbs, where he is the current WBC champion.

If Broner wins it would be the signature win of his career and go a (very) long way to proving to his numerous skeptics that he's now serious about living up to his enormous potential. As one of only 16 fighters in the history of boxing to have won major titles in 4 different weight classes, if Broner can pull off the upset here vs. Garcia, the boxing community will have to start at least thinking - as crazy as it may sound to some - about whether this guy deserves a spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame someday.

Why Mikey Garcia will win

Garcia is an undefeated (36-0) boxer who has won major world titles in three division, including the lightweight division where he is the current WBC champion. Garcia won that lightweight championship this past January via 3rd round KO, in what was his first career fight in the lightweight division and only his second fight after a 2.5 year layoff from the sport due to a contractual dispute with then promoter Top Rank.

Garcia is a very good to great boxing technician with excellent punching power, as evidenced by his career 83.3% career KO ratio which ranks among the best of any active boxer regardless of weight class. Pound-for-pound, Garcia is indeed one of the hardest punchers in the sport, but he's also an extremely patient fighter who boxes with caution and tends to wait for opportunities to counter from mid- and long-range distance rather than brawl inside. Garcia will almost certainly not be as aggressive or physical as Marcos Maidana or Shawn Porter were in their victories vs. Broner (which are the only two losses of Broner's career) but his punch output is higher than the relatively low-volume Broner and his notable punching power should be effective enough even at the higher weight class, especially against a somewhat flat-footed Broner. Garcia scored two knockdowns in his only other career appearance in the super lightweight division, a 5th round TKO victory vs. Elio Rojas last July. (The TKO loss to Garcia was the first time Rojas had been stopped in his career.)  

Garcia is also known as a high IQ boxer who makes up for lack of elite athleticism with excellent fundamentals and footwork. His balance and leverage behind which he throws his power punches is somewhat resemblant of the fighter widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport, Gennady Golovkin. While he likely won't be as effective as Maidana or Porter were at smothering Broner with hyper-aggression, he has much better timing and accuracy than either of those boxers (or any boxer Broner has faced previously in his career for that matter),  and his patient, cautious style will leave him much less susceptible to Broner's counter punching than Maidana or Porter were. (Despite losing to both, Broner landed his share of clean shots vs. Porter and Maidana; Porter was knocked down in the 12th round in his victory over Broner and Maidana has commented multiple times on Broner being the hardest puncher he's ever faced.)

Unlike Broner, who is a jokester by nature and has developed a reputation for not taking the sport as seriously as he perhaps should, Garcia has always been a very serious, mature fighter who seemingly always comes into his fights very focused and prepared. Garcia knows that this is the biggest fight of his career and a win over Broner - one of the most well-known boxers in the sport - will lead to significant paydays in future fights as it did for both Maidana and Porter, who each have earned seven-figure paydays in all of their fights since defeating Broner. (Maidana earned over $3 million in each of his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather before retiring and, after beating Broner, Porter earned at least $1 million in his fights vs. both Keith Thurman and Andre Berto.)

Garcia is a fighter many consider to be one of the best in the sport pound-for-pound and is facing an opponent in Broner who has lost decisively (by wide unanimous decision) every time he's stepped up to face a top-level opponent. Broner's most high profile win was perhaps a controversial split-decision victory vs. Paulie Malignaggi, who was 32-years old at the time and a bit past his prime. Broner typically performs below expectation in his fights; the last fight in which Broner clearly met or exceeded performance expectations was perhaps his 8th round TKO victory way back in 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, who was a very solid contender at the time.

Garcia is likely much more familiar with Broner's fighting style and tendencies than Broner is of his. Garcia is trained by his older brother, widely respected trainer Robert Garcia, who was Maidana's trainer when Maidana decisively beat Broner in Broner's first career loss back in 2013 (a fight where Broner suffered the only two knockdowns of his career). Garcia's familiarity and previous success training against Broner should allow him to better prepare for this fight compared to Broner's training team, who have relatively little recent film on Garcia to draw from given that Garcia has only fought twice and in a total of eight rounds in the past 3.5 years (due largely to his 2.5 years of inactivity).

Why Adrien Broner will win

Broner is a former four-division world champion who, when he was just 26 years old, became the youngest fighter in boxing history to win major world titles in four different weight classes. Although he often hasn't fought up to his potential thus far in his career (which makes having won world titles in four different weight classes all the more impressive), Broner is a top-level talent who less than 3.5 years ago was ranked #5 pound-for-pound in the world by Ring Magazine and considered by some the heir apparent to Floyd Mayweather before his surprising loss to Maidana, who came into the fight as high as a 5-1 (+500) underdog.

Broner is a 27-year old fighter still very much in the prime of his career and will come into Saturday's fight holding advantages in size, physical strength, and athleticism over Gracia. Broner also has quicker hands and - despite Garcia's proven punching power - Broner may actually have slightly better power than Garcia at 140 lbs. Broner's size and strength in particular may be a major factor in this fight - despite the two losses (and getting knocked down twice in the process), Broner was able to hold his own and showed a good chin at a higher weight class (147 lbs) vs. two well-respected punchers in Maidana and Porter; it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Broner have better success managing Garcia's power at this lower weight. Garcia, on the other hand, has been knocked down once before - in 2013 at a much lower weight class (130 lbs) and by a fighter in Rocky Martinez not known for his punching power. Garcia's chin has been relatively untested in the lower weight classes he's fought in - Broner will be (perhaps by far) the biggest, toughest power puncher he's faced thus far in his career.

This is Garcia's first fight at a full 140 lbs, a weight Broner has fought at or higher than in the majority of his fights over the past four years and won a world title in less than two years ago. Broner has the two losses in his career, but he's undefeated (29-0) fighting below 147 lbs and will be fighting a smaller, weaker guy in Garcia. Broner's two losses at welterweight were largely due to Maidana and Porter being able to use their physicality and awkward, hyper-aggressive fighting styles to overwhelm Broner; a smaller, less aggressive Garcia likely won't be able to do the same Saturday night.

Garcia is known to be a high IQ, very skilled fighter but Broner is a slick, skilled technician in his own right; Broner is a relatively accurate, efficient puncher with power in both hands (as evidenced by his respectable 67% TKO/KO percentage), as well as an effective jab and solid one-two combination punching (though the knock on Broner is he's often not been able to put together more than two-punch combination punches vs. tougher opponents).

Broner also has an advantage in experience over Garcia, having fought numerous former world champions including Porter, Maidana, Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce De Leon, De Marco, and Gavin Rees, among others. Garcia is relatively untested in comparison, with perhaps the best wins of his career coming in 2013 vs. Juan Manuel Lopez - who's lost his last four title fights by TKO/KO due to a weak chin - and vs. 13-loss former world champion Orlando Salido. It also seems to be getting overlooked that Garcia has fought only twice in the past 3.5 years. Given Garcia's relatively weak level of competition and recent inactivity over the past few years it's highly possible Garcia is being overrated in this matchup.

Despite being a bit flat-footed, Broner has better defense than most give him credit for. Broner is adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. With his quick reflexes, he slips and rolls punches fairly well from inside and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. If Garcia's punching power doesn't carry up to 140 lbs as well as most expect it will there's a good chance Broner's defense will easily be able to withstand Garcia's attack. If Broner was able to last 12 rounds at welterweight with an over 80% TKO/KO percentage fighter in Maidana, and was able to withstand the attack of Porter - a big welterweight who has had a lot of pro experience fighting at middleweight (160 lbs) - it stands to reason that Broner won't have too much difficulty with a less imposing, relatively patient puncher in Garcia who's coming up from a smaller weight class.

Broner has shown signs of taking this fight more seriously than previous high-profile fights where he's put forth disappointing performances. He's moved his training camp from his usual locations in Cincinnati, Ohio and Washington, D.C. to Colorado Springs, Colorado where he trained earlier in his career - presumably to minimize outside distractions. Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights in the past and/or has negotiated a change in weight limit at the last minute so he could make weight but appears to have made the 140 lb weight for this fight without difficulty. Broner is a high profile, polarizing character who sells tickets often on his personality alone but he's well aware that Saturday's fight vs. Garcia may be his last opportunity to create a path to the Mayweather-level PPV superstardom he desires. Broner appears to be relishing the underdog status he has in this fight and sees this fight as an opportunity to prove a lot of his doubters wrong.

Prefight Analysis

In many ways this is a favorable matchup for Broner - he is the superior fighter in terms of size, physical strength, quickness, and athleticism. Broner also has more experience vs. top-level opponents and, at 140 lbs, arguably even packs more power behind his punch than the heavy-handed Garcia. Garcia may be the more skilled, fundamentally sound fighter but his skill and power will be mitigated by the fact that he's moving up in weight to fight at a full 140 lbs for the first time vs. a slick, defensively solid fighter in Broner who is comfortable at 140 lbs and even won a world title in the weight class less than two years ago. Broner is the biggest, most skilled, and most effective puncher Garcia has fought in his career. He's certainly a live underdog; if the +500 odds (for Broner to win) this fight opened at back in June were available today, I would take happily those odds and bet Broner without thinking too much about it.

With that said, I like Garcia to win this fight (at -200 odds) for a few reasons. Firstly, Garcia has always been a big boxer for the smaller weights he's fought at, to the extent of having had trouble making weight in a few fights and even losing his WBO featherweight title on the scales in his 2013 TKO victory vs. Juan Manuel Lopez after failing to make weight. 140 lbs is closer to Garcia's normal walk-around weight of 150-155 lbs; I see Garcia adjusting just fine to a weight closer to his normal weight and think his power will carry up to the higher weight accordingly. While Broner is resilient and has shown a decent chin vs. bigger opponents, I expect Garcia's power to be effective enough to cause problems for Broner, especially when you combine the leverage with which he throws his punches with his excellent timing and accuracy.

Again, Broner is the bigger, stronger fighter in this matchup but a big key here is that stylistically, Broner's a relatively low-volume, 1-2 punch combination counter puncher. I anticipate Broner's style and reluctance in many spots to be the aggressor to mostly mitigate the physical advantages he has over Garcia. Broner is at times flat-footed and often tentative in his attack, which I think will allow Garcia to press his attack more in the middle and later rounds after he develops a read on Broner's tendencies; I see Garcia having more success landing his jab and power right hand in particular as the fight progresses and he adjusts to Broner's style.

Broner is saying the Garcia fight will be the fight where he turns things around and shows why he should be considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport but he's actually said the same thing prior to most of his recent fights. The fact is, Broner hasn't performed up to expectations (i.e., the expectations of the A-level fighter that he was rated as earlier in his career) in *any* of his fights in recent years and has even struggled to win rounds vs. B-level fighters like Adrian Granados and Ashley Theophane (his two most recent opponents).

Garcia is perhaps the best fighter Broner has fought thus far in his career (a career in which he's already suffered two decisive losses, as well as being awarded multiple decisions that were deemed controversial and I think it will show Saturday night in what will be at times a highly competitive and entertaining, but clear victory for Garcia by decision or late stoppage. Broner certainly has the size, power, and skill to beat (or even stop) Garcia but given his fight style, I don't see him using his physicality or throwing enough punches to outpoint a patient - but more active - fighter in Garcia over the course of 12 rounds.

Prediction: Garcia to win

Recommended bet: Garcia to win (1 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Jacobs: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (32-1, 29 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: March 18, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Golovkin -825, Jacobs +650 (5 Dimes, 3/17/17)
Purse: Golovkin: $2.5 million, Jacobs: $1.75 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch (other notable fights: Lemieux vs. Stevens, Froch vs. Groves I, Golovkin vs. Proksa)

Why you should watch this fight

This is a fight between the two best middleweight boxers in the world - who also happen to be two of the best knockout artists in the sport - that is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed matchup. Saturday night will be a middleweight title unification bout between the undefeated WBA (Super), WBC, and IBF middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin - arguably the top fighter in boxing pound-for-pound - vs. WBA (Regular) middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs - a 32-1 fighter who hasn't lost a fight in over 6.5 years and is by far Golovkin's toughest middleweight opponent to date.

The winner of this fight will be the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and will be well on his way to becoming the first undisputed middleweight champion in over a decade (Jermain Taylor, 2006), pending a possible fight with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders later this year.

Golovkin has won 33 out of his 36 professional fights - including his last 23(!) fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 92%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. But Jacobs is a top-level boxer who has elite punching power in his own right, having won 29 out of his 33 professional fights - including his last 12 fights - by stoppage for a very impressive KO% of 88%. Jacobs - who just five years ago survived a rare form of bone cancer (which at one point left him unable to walk) to win a middleweight title in 2014 - will be fighting in his hometown of New York City. where he is 9-0 as a fighter (with all 9 of those victories coming via early-round stoppage).

Given the combination of world-class boxing skills and elite knockout power possessed by both fighters, this should be an electric one while it lasts.

The undercard of this fight features undefeated, current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound boxer Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez, a four-weight division champion who will be defending his super flyweight championship vs. Thai fighter Wisaksil Wangek.

Prefight Analysis

Many would consider Danny Jacobs to be a live underdog in this fight, especially given the sizable (+650) odds on him to upset Golovkin. He's won 12 straight fights - all by TKO/KO - and has looked impressive in most of those fights. He's a big middleweight with a decent size advantage over Gennady. Jacobs has faster hands and faster feet than Golovkin, and is one of the very few middleweights out there with the punching power to stop him. Jacobs is a versatile fighter with the skills to fight Golovkin from close range - a tactic which may be necessary to mitigate Golovkin's ability to generate punching power from distance - but also has the skills to box on his feet. Given Jacob's 3" reach advantage in this matchup, he may have some success boxing Golovkin from distance.

Jacobs is (perhaps by far) Golovkin's toughest opponent to date so you can't completely write him off, especially given that he will be fighting in front of a lot of friendly supporters in his hometown of New York City and the fact that, in life, he has defeated a much tougher opponent than Golovkin in overcoming a rare form of bone cancer that was expected to end his boxing career (and possibly his ability to walk or even his life).

But despite Jacob's advantages, particularly in size and speed, I think his deficit of a questionable chin vs. Golovkin's potentially all-time great punching power will be too much for even a fighter nicknamed the "Miracle Man" to overcome. Jacob's only loss of his professional career came via early-round stoppage vs. Dmitry Pirog, another Soviet boxer who - like Golovkin will attempt to do Saturday night - was able to effectively cut off the ring early and apply pressure vs. a mostly retreating Jacobs (though Jacobs was able to win arguably win three out of the first four rounds on the scorecards). Pirog, now a politician in Russia (his career ended early due to a debilitating back injury), was a highly talented, potentially elite boxer but did not have the skills or punching power of Golovkin.

Jacobs was also knocked down in the first round of his August 2015 fight vs. Sergio Mora, a notoriously feather-fisted puncher who has only 9 wins by TKO/KO in 35 career fights (for a KO% of 26%).

The knockdowns vs. Pirog and Mora don't necessarily prove that Jacobs is weak-chinned, but in assessing an elite pound-for-pound fighter in Golovkin - who has a middleweight-record 92% of his wins (including the last 23 wins) coming via TKO/KO - vs. a skilled but somewhat predictable fighter in Jacobs who has a questionable chin, you'd have to (strongly) favor Golovkin's proven power.

Jacobs has elite power of his own to be sure, but Golovkin has proven to have one of the best - if not the best - chins in boxing, having never been knocked down or knocked out in 386(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Golovkin has already very easily handled a fighter with comparable power to Jacobs (in David Lemieux) and also already easily handled a much more skilled fighter than Jacobs (in his last fight vs. Kell Brook, a fighter many would rate as top 10-15 pound-for-pound). Golovkin has also fought faster, more elusive fighters than Jacobs (see Willie Monroe Jr. as an example), yet had no problems cutting off the ring and catching up to them en route early-round TKO/KO victories.

Golovkin's combination of pressure and skill is special and unmatched in the boxing game right now. There will be quite a few spots in this fight where Golovkin and Jacobs trade punches -  you have to favor Golovkin's impressive power (and ability to generate that power from unpredictable angles) vs. Jacob's questionable chin over Jacob's also elite, if not somewhat straightforward, power vs. Golovkin's seemingly impeccable chin. Only 2 of Golovkin's 33 knockout victims have lasted past 8 rounds: Martin Murray - who had never been knocked down or knocked out in a fight prior to getting knocked down 3 times and stopped in the 11th round in his February 2015 fight vs. Golovkin - and  Kassim Ouma, who was known for having a great chin in his prime. (Ouma was stopped in the 10th round of a close, competitive fight with Golovkin back in June 2011.)

Given this, I think that the best bet on this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO in the early to mid rounds. But - given that Golovkin has never faced a fighter with Jacob's combination of skill and power and, given the fact that Jacobs is one of the few fighters Golovkin has fought that has a clear size advantage over him, I think it's also worth "hedging" this bet to an extent with a bet on the fight to last under 7.5 rounds. Golovkin will likely respect Jacob's power early (as he did vs. Lemieux) and won't necessarily apply full pressure until he establishes a read on Jacobs; this period of the fight would be Jacob's best chance to jump on Golovkin and land that punch (or combination of punches) that stops Golovkin early (which IMO may be the only way he can win this fight). Note that this "hedge" also wins if Golovkin stops Jacobs early.

I will be betting on Golovkin to win the fight in the first 6 rounds (at approximately +120 odds) but an alternate bet to very strongly consider is to instead bet Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 as well as Golovkin to win in rounds 7-9. This bet will return roughly 15% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6, and will return roughly 35% more profit than betting on Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds if Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9. The downside to this alternative bet is it doesn't cover Golovkin winning within the first 3 rounds, though I suspect Golovkin will fight more cautiously during that period of the fight anyway as he develops his read on Jacobs. (This alternative does, however, cover some of the later rounds of the fight in case the fight lasts a bit longer than expected.)

The combination bet of Golovkin to win in rounds 4-6 and 7-9 may actually be the slightly more prudent bet given Golovkin's anticipated early round strategy, but I'm going with Golovkin to win in the first 6 rounds for simplicity and because I have serious doubts whether Jacob's chin can hold up even through the first three rounds.

In any case, I'll be in New York City for this fight and am looking forward to an electric, post-St. Patrick's Day fight crowd as well as an overall fantastic card, which includes top pound-for-pound fighter Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez. Good luck!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin wins in rounds 1-6 (.5 unit)
[or alternative combination bet of Golovkin wins in rounds 4-6 (.25 unit) and Golovkin wins in rounds 7-9 (.25 unit)]
2) Golovkin/Jacobs U 7.5 rounds (.5 unit)

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