Terence Crawford vs. Jeff Horn: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (32-0, 23 KOs) vs. Jeff Horn (18-0,-1 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: ESPN+
Line: Crawford -570, Horn +480 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purse: Crawford: $3 million, Horn: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, Horn: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Horn: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Can Terence Crawford be the next great American boxing superstar? Crawford - the undefeated, Ring Magazine #3-rated pound-for-pound boxer - is looking to win a world title in his third weight class in his welterweight (147 lb) division debut vs. Jeff Horn, another undefeated fighter who won the WBO welterweight title last July in a highly controversial unanimous decision victory vs. boxing legend Manny Pacquiao.

Of the top-ranked fighters in boxing, there are three who have arguably separated themselves from the rest of the pack to have a reasonable claim as the best fighter in the sport: Gennady Golovkin - who is still undefeated after last year's controversial draw vs. Canelo Alvarez, is coming off a sensational 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan, and is currently on one of the great title defense runs in the history of the middleweight division; Vasyl Lomachenko - who is coming off an impressive TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title (becoming the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win a world title in three divisions); and Crawford, who in his last fight became the first boxer in 13 years to be undisputed champion of the world (i.e., simultaneously hold all four major world titles within a single weight division). Crawford earned his undisputed champion status in the junior welterweight (140 lb) division after defeating previously undefeated Julius Indongo to unify all four titles in the weight class.

Over the past month, both Golovkin and Lomachenko have made their case for #1 fighter in the sport with impressive knockout victories over solid opponents. Crawford is looking to similarly impress and put in his claim as the best boxer pound-for-pound this Saturday in his welterweight debut vs. Horn, a naturally bigger man than Crawford who - as Pacquiao found out in his matchup with Horn last year - is difficult to look impressive against.

On the other side of the ring Horn -  a former school teacher who became a household name overnight in his home country of Australia after his shocking upset of heavy betting favorite Pacquiao - is looking to prove his win over Pacquiao (who came into last July's fight vs. Horn with much more experience at welterweight than Crawford will this Saturday) was no fluke.

Crawford vs. Horn will be the first high-profile boxing match to be televised live on ESPN's new "ESPN Plus" (ESPN+) subscription service. Will Crawford once again live up to the hype - making the biggest weight jump of his career (7 lbs) to win a title in his third weight class and stake his claim as the best fighter in the sport? Or will Jeff Horn - who opened as a 10-1 underdog and is currently graded as nearly a 5-1 underdog for Saturday's fight - shock the world again?

Prefight Analysis

This fight could very easily be tougher for Crawford than most think. Horn is the bigger fighter in this matchup - a fighter who's boxed his entire professional career at welterweight (and is generally considered a big guy within the weight class) while Crawford has fought a large part of his career two full divisions lower at lightweight. It shouldn't be overlooked here that Crawford is making the biggest weight jump of his career Saturday night to fight at welterweight for the first time in his career vs. an undefeated welterweight champion.

As he showed in his upset of Pacquiao, Horn is a tough, durable fighter at welterweight who might be able to impose his size advantage and physicality in the early rounds on a smaller Crawford who sometimes likes to exercise patience (and thus can be a slow starter) early. Horn has an awkward, "herky-jerky" style featuring deceptively quick foot movement and timely pressure that may take even a master of in-fight adjustments like Crawford a few rounds to get acclimated to. Horn also has legitimate power in his right hand that Crawford likely won't be able to just walk through (as he's done with shots from big power punchers at lower weight divisions).

Horn comes into this fight as a substantial underdog but he's is an undefeated world champion who's consistently shown the toughness and resiliency to do what he has to do to get the victory. Crawford - though a bigger-sized guy when he fought in the lightweight and junior welterweight divisions - is the naturally smaller fighter in this welterweight matchup with Horn and will be fighting at welterweight for the very first time in his career. There's a non-negligible chance that - similar to the Pacquiao fight - Horn's size advantage, physicality, and pressure will be a bit more than Crawford bargained for and overcome Crawford's clear skill and talent advantage.  

But I think Horn has way too much to overcome here in this matchup (vs. arguably the best boxer in the world pound-for-pound in Crawford) to pull off the upset - in my opinion, the pick here is Crawford by TKO/KO. Yes, Horn is the bigger, typically more physical fighter and is the only fighter in this matchup with any experience at welterweight. But Crawford has the clear advantage in just about every other facet of the matchup: skills (both offensive and defensive), punch accuracy, speed, quickness, athleticism, reach, power, ring IQ, etc. There are levels to boxing - Crawford has proven multiple times that he's an A-level boxer and is currently in the prime of what will likely be a hall-of-fame career; Horn is at best a B/B+-level fighter whose best win was a highly controversial decision over a past-prime Pacquiao - a fight that most observers felt he lost.

Horn came into last year's fight vs. Pacquiao as nearly a middleweight the day of the fight and was, in many spots, successfully able to impose his size advantage and physicality on the smaller Pacquiao. Despite this, Pacquiao was able to consistently land power shots and visibly bloody Horn to the point where at the end of the 9th round the referee came over to Horn's corner and suggested the fight be stopped. One thing that saved Horn in last year's fight was Pacquiao's cautiousness; since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, Pacquiao has been noticeably less willing to take risks offensively (he hasn't stopped anyone since Marquez knocked him out) and his punch output has declined considerably.

The killer instinct that was a hallmark of prime Pacquiao has all but disappeared in recent years. Prime Crawford still has that killer instinct; you can bet he will be more aggressive in the middle to later rounds than Pacquiao was vs. Horn. Crawford does not have quite the hand speed or quickness of even a past-prime Pacquiao but he is much more accurate and crafty offensively; in the later rounds I anticipate he'll be able to land power punches almost at will vs. a tough, but defensively flawed Horn who will try to apply pressure on Crawford and thus will be open for Crawford's counterpunching. Horn can be elusive on his feet but has a "head-first" come-forward style which likely won't work well for long vs. an accurate power puncher like Crawford who will be looking to time Horn as he jumps inside to attack. Note that Horn has been knocked down in two of his last five fights and in a third fight (the fight vs. Pacquiao last year) came close to being stopped.

An overwhelming majority of the boxing press, ringside observers, and general public felt Horn lost last year in a fight vs. a past-prime, smaller fighter with declining skills in Pacquiao. In my opinion, it's highly likely he'll take a worse beating vs. a much younger, prime Crawford who has superior technical skills to Pacquiao and is eager to make his case as possibly the best boxer in the world so will actively look to be much more aggressive than Pacquiao was last year.

It's important to note that Horn got the controversial decision over Pacquiao in the city (and country) where he was born and raised (Brisbane, Australia). Saturday night he'll be fighting in Crawford's home country in front of mostly Crawford fans who - as proven in previous Crawford fights in New York City and Las Vegas - travel as well as fans of any current American fighter. I see Horn putting up a spirited effort and making the fight competitive in the early rounds before the talent and skill gap becomes apparent, leading to Crawford dominating the fight in the middle and late rounds.

I don't anticipate too much suspense in this fight but it'll be intriguing to see how Crawford performs in his welterweight debut so we can maybe better gauge how he might perform in possible superfights down the road vs. top welterweights like Errol Spence, Keith Thurman, and Danny Garcia. Or maybe Horn will show tonight that he's a top welterweight we've all been sleeping on???


Prediction: Crawford by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Crawford by TKO/KO/DQ (1 unit)

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Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (9-1, 7 KOs) vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux (17-0, 11 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 9, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World super featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -325, Rigondeaux: +295 (5 Dimes, 12/8/17)
Purses: Lomachenko: $1.2 million, Rigondeaux: $400,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked junior lightweight, Rigondeaux: #4 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked junior featherweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Rigondeaux: Southpaw
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

For hardcore boxing fans, Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux is right up there with Canelo vs. Golovkin and the first Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev matchup as one of the most anticipated fights in recent years between two pound-for-pound ranked fighters in their prime.

The aforementioned Canelo/Golovkin and Ward/Kovalev matchups were PPV-televised fights. At least in the United States. boxing fans with a basic cable subscription will be able to watch tomorrow's highly anticipated matchup for free on ESPN.

Saturday's matchup features arguably the two greatest fighters in the 120+ year history of organized amateur boxing and will be the first time in the history of the sport fighters who have each won multiple Olympic gold medals will have faced each other. As an amateur, Lomachenko had a boxing record of 396-1 and won Olympic gold representing the Ukraine in the 2008 (Beijing) and 2012 (London) Olympics, while Rigondeaux boasted an amateur boxing record of 463-12 and won Olympic gold representing Cuba in the 2000 (Sydney) and 2004 (Athens) Olympics.

Lomachenko - who first won a major world title 3.5 years ago in only his third professional fight - is widely regarded as a historically great talent with first ballot hall-of-fame potential and is considered by many to be the fighter most likely to end up being the greatest boxer of the post-Mayweather era (assuming Mayweather is retired for good this time). On Saturday, Lomachenko will be facing by far the toughest test in young professional career in Rigondeaux - an experienced master technician who has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career and who some would argue is even more skilled than even the uber-talented Lomachenko.

This fight between two top five pound-for-pound talents (Ring Magazine ranks Lomachenko and Rigondeaux as the #3 and #4 boxers in the world, respectively) should go a very long way to answering whether Lomachenko is truly deserving of the massive hype he's received as a potential all-time great and possible best boxer of a post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation. On the other hand this fight also has the potential of being a career-defining win for Rigondeaux, a vastly underappreciated talent who has long been one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (if not the best), but has been sharply criticized for his elusive, fan-unfriendly boxing style, weak level of opposition, and general inactivity. (Rigondeaux has fought only four times in the past three years and fought only three full rounds in the past two years.) If a 37-year old Rigondeaux - who has fought his entire professional career at super bantamweight (122 lbs) - can jump up two weight classes and put on an impressive performance at super featherweight (130 lbs) vs. a fighter in Lomachenko whom many have pegged as a future hall-of-famer after only ten professional fights, it should go a long way towards silencing his numerous doubters and solidifying his own claim as one of the best boxers of this generation.

Why Vasyl Lomachenko will win

After only ten professional fights, Lomachenko is considered by many boxing fans and experts alike to be arguably the best boxer in the sport pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine currently has him ranked #3 pound-for-pound, while ESPN has him ranked #2) and a fighter who may potentially go down as one of the greatest boxers the sport has ever seen.

Lomachenko - the current WBO super featherweight champion of the world - has perhaps the most impressive record in the history of amateur boxing (career amateur boxing record of 396-1 record, double Olympic gold medalist, two-time amateur boxing world champion). He was also able to win a major world title in only his third professional fight and became a two-division world champion (at featherweight and super featherweight) in only his seventh professional fight, both records for the fewest fights at the start of a professional career to achieve these feats.

Lomachenko's hype and impressive achievements are the result of what appears to be freakish, historically great talent and skill. Lomachenko is a master technician with exceptional footwork and impeccable timing. His deft footwork in particular appears to be the root of his greatness, allowing him to throw precise punches from unorthodox, unpredictable angles with power as well as dominate the tempo of fights by controlling distance with his movement. He is a highly intelligent pressure fighter who throws punches at a high volume with very good hand speed and great accuracy.

Given Lomachenko's high volume, pressure-oriented style, one should expect him to be more active and consistently throw more punches than the relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - who will primarily be looking to counter Lomachenko's offensive attack.

Since his split decision loss 3.5 years ago to Orlando Salido (a fight that was only the 2nd fight of Lomachenko's professional career in which Salido failed to make weight and came in to the fight 21 pounds over the 126 lb weight limit), Lomachenko has won eight straight fights - with the last six by TKO/KO in dominating fashion. Still very early in his professional career, Lomachenko appears to be improving with each fight, with performances so dominant in recent fights that his last three opponents - including highly regarded and then-undefeated Nicholas Walters - voluntarily quit on their stools during the middle rounds of their fights.

As a 130 lb super featherweight world title holder who won Olympic gold and was a world champion as an amateur at lightweight (135 lbs), Lomachenko will likely enter Saturday's matchup with a noticeable weight advantage vs. the physically smaller Rigondeaux - who is moving two weight classes up from super bantamweight (122 lbs) to fight at 130 lbs for the first time in his boxing career, professional or amateur. Lomachenko's experience at the higher weight class combined with his versatile set of skills and superior athleticism may prove to be overwhelming vs. even an unquestionably elite pound-for-pound fighter in Rigondeaux. Rigondeaux is a defensively-gifted counterpuncher with very underrated power but one has to wonder how well that power will carry up two weight classes for a past-prime, 37-year old fighter who has been relatively inactive in recent years. (Rigondeaux has fought only three full rounds the past three years and fought only once in each of the past three years.)

Lomachenko's lone loss was to a pressure fighter in Salido who used high punch volume, a significant weight advantage, and experience to essentially bully a relatively inexperienced Lomachenko in the early rounds of their fight en route to a controversial split decision victory. Rigondeaux is a much smaller, low-volume counter puncher who doesn't have the pressure style that Salido used over 3 years ago to defeat a now much more experienced Lomachenko.

Lomachenko's pressuring style leaves him susceptible to counter punching at times but his excellent footwork, as well as frequent and varied upper body and punch feints makes him very difficult to time and hit cleanly. One shouldn't be surprised if even Rigondeaux's highly accurate counter punching and superior hand speed have trouble finding the target vs. Lomachenko's crafty defense. Even if Rigondeaux is able to land punches, one has to wonder how effective the punching power of a career super bantamweight will be vs. a bigger fighter who has never been knocked down in his professional career and has only been knocked down once in 397 amateur fights. Rigondeaux, on the other hand, has been knocked down four times across three fights at 122 lbs vs. smaller fighters with less power than Lomachenko.

At Madison Square Garden in New York City Lomachenko and his engaging, crowd-pleasing style will be the clear fan favorite vs. Rigondeaux and his low-volume, defensively-oriented tactics, which have been criticized by numerous boxing observers as "boring." Note that the pro-Lomachenko crowd and Lomachenko's fan-friendly ring style - complete with aggressive, accurate, and clean power punching that judges tend to favor - stand a good chance of creating a scoring bias in favor of Lomachenko if the fight is close and competitive. (In other words, I think it will be difficult for Rigondeaux to win this fight on the judges' scorecards unless he completely dominates Lomachenko.)

Lomachenko is younger (by 8 years) than the 37-year old Rigondeaux and is the more ambitious fighter - as evidenced by his willingness to take on elite fighters like Rigondeaux so early in his professional career; every fight he's fought since his first professional fight has been a major world title fight vs. a solid opponent. Rigondeaux comes into Saturday's matchup as an underappreciated 3-1 underdog who feels he has a lot to prove but I think Lomachenko is the more determined, ambitious fighter fighting to establish a legacy that will perhaps render him one of the great fighters of this (or any) generation; an impressive performance vs. Rigondeaux would go a long way towards building that legacy. 

Why Guillermo Rigondeaux will win

Like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine has him ranked #4, while ESPN has him at #7). Also like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has an impressive amateur boxing pedigree that includes two Olympic gold medals and multiple international amateur championships. In his professional career, Rigondeaux is undefeated (17-0) and is the current WBA super bantamweight champion of the world.

Rigondeaux arguably hasn't even come close to losing a fight since turning pro in 2009 and he hasn't lost a fight as an amateur or pro since 2003.

As excellent and highly regarded as Lomachenko is, many actually consider Rigondeaux to be the superior boxer overall. Hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach, who trained Rigondeaux early in his career, noted that Rigondeaux was "the best counter puncher" and "probably the greatest talent" he'd ever seen. Indeed, Rigondeaux is universally regarded as a master counter puncher with superior hand speed and punching power to that of Lomachenko's (though it remains to be seen how well Rigondeaux's very underrated power carries up two weight classes to super featherweight). Rigondeaux's counter punching is particularly effective to the body, where he's been able to land his powerful straight left with regularity vs. most opponents. Regardless of size advantage - if Rigondeaux can land even some of those body shots vs. Lomachenko, it will likely go a long way towards wearing Lomachenko down by the latter rounds of the fight.

While Lomachenko is the bigger guy who will come into the ring with a size and weight advantage Saturday night, it remains to be seen how effective Lomachenko will actually be in imposing his size on Rigondeaux. While he's certainly a skilled pressure fighter, Lomachenko has never been known as a particularly physical fighter - he's always relied much more on crafty movement, speed, and accuracy than physically imposing himself on his opponent with size and brute strength. So how valuable will Lomachenko's size advantage really be in this matchup?

Well-schooled in the highly-respected Cuban amateur boxing system, Rigondeaux is an extremely efficient, accurate counter puncher who might have the best defense in the entire sport with his excellent footwork and vertical/lateral elusiveness. Rigondeaux's 2.5-inch reach advantage over Lomachenko should enhance Rigondeaux's ability to counter punch from distance and elude Lomachenko's pressure.

One should also expect Rigondeaux's rare combination of hand speed, punching power (in both hands), and accuracy to at least somewhat stymie Lomachenko's attack. Rigondeaux has a history of freezing even highly-regarded opponents with precise counter punching. Remember that in 2013, Rigondeaux entered his fight with then-WBO super bantamweight champion Nonito Donaire - who had not lost a fight in over 12 years and was considered by most to be one of the top five boxers in the sport pound-for-for-pound at the time - as a 2-1 underdog. In that fight Rigondeaux put up probably the best performance of his professional career, ending Donaire's 30-fight win streak by outclassing him with timely counter punching and speed - dominating the fight despite Donaire's advantages in size and power. In his fight immediately following the Donaire fight, Rigondeaux similarly stymied former two-time IBF bantamweight champion Joseph Agbeko - a fight in which a normally tough and high-volume Agbeko landed only 48 punches over the course of 12 rounds (the second fewest punches landed over 12 rounds in the 32-year history of CompuBox-tracked fights).

Rigondeaux's relative inactivity in recent years (he's fought only four times over the past three years) may actually work as an advantage; given his lack of ring activity and cautious, defensively-oriented style, Rigondeaux has suffered very little wear-and-tear over the course of his 18-fight professional career. For a 37-year old fighter past his athletic prime, he is relatively fresh and has shown zero signs of slippage in speed or power in any of his recent fights.

Despite having fought only 18 career fights as a pro, Rigondeaux also has a slight advantage in professional boxing experience over Lomachenko, who is fighting in his 11th fight as only a 4th-year pro. A large part of the reason Lomachenko lost to a less-skilled Salido in 2014 was Salido's significant advantage in experience. Lomachenko has gained experience and has become a better fighter in the 3.5 years since that loss but Rigondeaux is infinitely more skilled than Salido and will be by far the toughest, most skilled opponent Lomachenko has fought (and likely will fight, regardless of who he faces in the future) in his career.   

This is the biggest fight of Rigondeaux's career. Coming into this fight as a significant underdog vs. a heavily glorified opponent and having taken a lot of criticism throughout his career for his inactivity and risk-averse style, Rigondeaux has a lot to prove. In the previous biggest fight of his career (vs. Donaire), Rigondeaux put up a technical masterpiece vs. a bigger, stronger opponent in what was probably the most brilliant performance of his career. He will surely be (highly) motivated to do the same Saturday night vs. Lomachenko.

Prefight Analysis

Given the elite pedigree and skills - as well as solid punching power - of both boxers, this is a fight that could end a number of possible different ways.

Despite being a significant underdog, Rigondeaux is the more experienced, quicker, and arguably the better overall skilled fighter (particularly from a defensive standpoint) in this matchup. Though he's the smaller fighter, he may also actually be the more dangerous puncher (at least in terms of one-punch knockout power). Unlike Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has never lost a fight in his professional carer (and has never really even come close to losing a fight) and has a history of making even well-respected, top-level opponents look mediocre (see his fights vs. former world champions Donaire and Agbeko).

There should be no surprise whatsoever if Rigondeaux is able to use elusive footwork, as well as his superior hand speed and counter punching abilities to outbox - perhaps even outclass - an immensely gifted but slightly slower and relatively inexperienced Lomachenko. And although it would be surprising, it wouldn't be a tremendous shocker to see Rigondeaux - whose punching power is often overlooked given his low-volume, defensively-oriented style - land enough clean power punches in countering Lomachenko's pressure to stop him in the late rounds. Assuming Rigondeaux's power holds up well at the higher weight class and assuming he hasn't lost much speed or power past his physical prime at 37-years old, taking Rigondeaux to win the fight at approximately +300 odds might be a decent value play.

But, at the end of the day, I see the two-weight class (8 lb) jump and size disparity to be a bit much for even a great defensive counter puncher like Rigondeaux to overcome. I see Rigondeaux facing similar challenges to the difficulties Kell Brook and Amir Khan had last year jumping up two weight classes (from welterweight to middleweight) to fight Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez. Both Brook and Khan were arguably more skilled than their bigger, pound-for-pound rated opponents and both even had success in the very early rounds, but the size advantage and power of Golovkin and Canelo proved to be overwhelming en route to brutal stoppage losses for both in the middle rounds. (And, after well over a year, neither Brook or Khan has fought again since being stopped.)

Rigondeaux is certainly more defensively skilled than Brook or Khan, and Lomachenko certainly does not have the power or the imposing size of a Golovkin or Canelo, but he has elite skill and precision - particularly shooting punches from unorthodox angles - to complement the respectable power he has. And Rigondeaux has shown a questionable chin even at the lower weight class vs. opponents with less punching power, having been knocked down four times in three of his previous fights.

Rigondeaux has a history of stymieing bigger, more aggressive opponents but at this higher weight class I think Lomachenko's size, pressure, and craftiness will be too much for even a defensively gifted Rigondeaux to handle - especially given Rigondeaux's lack of punch volume.

I don't see Rigondeaux's power carrying  up to 130 lbs as well as some might expect - especially vs. a fighter like Lomachenko who has shown a very good chin (having never come close to being knocked down in his brief professional career and being knocked down only once in a 397-fight amateur career) and is much more difficult to hit cleanly than previous top-level Rigondeaux opponents like Donaire and Agbeko with his excellent footwork and frequent body feints.

Also consider that if the fight ends up being close I'd expect the more entertaining, higher volume Lomachenko to get the nod on the judges' scorecards over a relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - especially in front of what will be a decidedly pro-Lomachenko crowd on a boxing card backed by Lomachenko's promoter, Top Rank. (In other words yes, I expect boxing politics to favor Lomachenko over the relatively unpopular Rigondeaux if the fight happens to be close.)

I think there is a pretty good chance Lomachenko overwhelms Rigondeaux and stops him in the later rounds but, given Rigondeaux's defensive prowess, I think it's more likely Rigondeaux is able to survive the full 12 rounds. Given the high IQ and crazy skills of both fighters I see this fight having more moments resembling a high-level chess match - where not many punches are landed - than of a bloody brawl. But whether it's by stoppage or by decision I think most signs point to a Lomachenko victory here, so would go with Lomachenko simply to win (currently at -325 odds) as your best bet. 

I'll be at this fight Saturday night; if the matchup in the ring is even half as good as the matchup on paper, we're in for a classic given the impressive pedigree and skill of both fighters!

Prediction: Lomachenko to win

Recommended bet: Lomachenko to win (1 unit)

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Pacquiao vs. Vargas: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Manny Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 5, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: Top Rank PPV
Line: Pacquiao -570, Vargas +480 (5 Dimes, 11/5/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: not ranked (due to brief retirement), Vargas: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

To see if the recently unretired and current Philippine Senator Manny Pacquiao can reclaim his previously perennial status atop the welterweight division (and as one of the elite boxers pound-for-pound) by beating current WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas... or if the younger, technically skilled, and highly confident Vargas can pull off the defining win of his career by defeating one of the great boxers in the history of the sport in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas (where he has lived and trained since he was a child).

Pacquiao is not quite the electrifying fighter he was in his prime but - based on his impressive unanimous decision victory last April vs. Timothy Bradley - he still has elite speed and very good power, which should provide for an entertaining matchup with the scrappy, former two-time Mexican national champion Vargas, who likes to fight inside and will likely be willing to trade power punches with Pacquiao.

Pacquiao spent over 600 weeks (over 12 years) in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 rankings before dropping off earlier this year due to a brief retirement; a convincing win vs. Vargas will likely return him to top pound-for-pound status.

This fight will be shown on PPV, though will be televised by Top Rank PPV instead of HBO, who had been under contract to televise Pacquiao's fights. HBO declined to televise this fight due in part to lack of interest in the matchup with Vargas and to avoid clustering the HBO boxing schedule (Andre Ward/Sergey Kovalev PPV on November 19th and the now-canceled Fury/Klitschko matchup that had been scheduled for October 29th.)

Loquacious ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith will make debut as a boxing color analyst for this fight, commentating alongside Brian Kenny, who will serve as the blow-by-blow announcer. Tim Bradley, who fought Pacquiao in his last fight this past April and who fought Vargas back in 2015, will also serve as an analyst for the fight.

Why Manny Pacquiao will win

Pacquiao is universally considered one of the best boxers in the history of the sport and, alongside Floyd Mayweather Jr., is one of the top two boxers of this generation. Judging by his performance this past April vs. Bradley - a possible future hall-of-famer who was coming off of an impressive TKO victory of granite-chinned Brandon Rios - Pacquiao is likely still one of the elite fighters in the sport. The freakish, next-level athleticism and talent that made Pacquiao a global icon is for the most part still there.

Although more than 10 years older, Pacquiao still has clear and significant hand speed and power advantages over Vargas, who has shown some solid power in his last couple of fights but only has 10 KOs in 28 career fights (36%). Pacquiao is an ambush-style fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although not quite as fast or as strong as he was in his prime, it would be shocking if Pacquiao doesn't consistently beat the much slower Vargas to the punch with his speed and evade Vargas's pocket attack with his head movement and footwork, both of which are still amongst the best in boxing.

The 5'10" Vargas possesses a 4.5" height advantage and 4" reach advantage over Pacquiao, but Manny has had great success in previous fights vs. taller fighters with significant reach advantage (see his fights vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito, 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya, and 5'10" Chris Algieri who were all dominated by Pacquiao despite their height and a 5" reach advantage). Vargas is a solid, technically skilled fighter but his attack will likely be somewhat stymied vs. Pacquiao (as it was vs. 5'6" Tim Bradley) as he will at times have to bend over and adjust the angles at which he naturally throws punches to land clean punches vs. his shorter opponent.

With clear disadvantages in speed, power, talent, athleticism, and experience, Vargas's chances lie largely on whether he can time Pacquiao and land a big right hand to set up a TKO/KO upset - as he did in his last fight in a 9th round TKO victory vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali and as he almost did late in the 12th round of his June 2015 fight vs. Bradley when he stunned Bradley with a big right hook. But Pacquiao is a highly experienced fighter who has actually fought a much more cautious and defensively responsible style since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012; Pacquiao is better than he was even in his prime at keeping his guard up and still has very good head movement so it will be tough even for a skilled, classic Mexican-style boxer like Vargas to catch him with a big shot (especially given the speed disparity).

There's also the question of how much Pacquiao has really fallen off over the past few years. While obviously not the KO king he was in his prime (though the lack of KOs can mostly be attributed to  fighting guys who are naturally bigger than him at welterweight), his performances have still generally been top-level; Pacquiao's only losses in the last 4.5 years came vs. 1) an undefeated Tim Bradley in a split decision loss that the vast majority of boxing fans, experts, and media felt Pacquiao won decisively, 2) a KO loss to Marquez that Pacquiao was winning decisively and looking to finish early before getting caught with a big punch, and 3) a unanimous decision loss to a boxer widely considered the best fighter of this generation, Floyd Mayweather - a fight where he was able to win 4 rounds on 2 out of 3 of the judges' scorecards despite (at least according to Pacquiao) having an injured right shoulder. It can easily be argued that Pacquiao's skills haven't deteriorated nearly as much as people think and that he's (at 37 years old) maybe even the best welterweight in the world right now with Mayweather retired from the sport. 

Vargas is a good boxer and the current WBO welterweight champion but thus far in his career hasn't shown anything special to suggest that he would be a threat to upset Pacquiao. The best win of Vargas's career was his most recent fight vs. unbeaten, but unproven contender Sadam Ali and he lost convincingly in his 2015 fight vs. Timothy Bradley, a fighter Pacquiao has beaten convincingly twice (arguably three times). Over the past 17 years (spanning 38 fights), Pacquiao's only losses have been competitive losses to hall-of-fame caliber opponents (Mayweather, Marquez, Erik Morales, and possibly Bradley); Vargas is very widely considered a level (or two) below these caliber of fighters.

Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas - where Vargas has lived and trained for several years - the fan-friendly and still extremely popular Pacquiao is the main attraction for this fight and will be the overwhelming crowd favorite, which sometimes affects (in favor of the crowd favorite) the action inside the ring and the judging outside of it.

Even with the personal and political distractions in his life, Pacquiao has always been an unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights. But for less experienced Vargas this is his first time headlining a PPV card; it's unclear how the atmosphere and pressure surrounding his first PPV fight will affect him.

Why Jessie Vargas will win

Vargas is the current WBO welterweight champion of the world and is coming off of the best win of his career, a 9th round TKO vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali, who was undefeated at the time.

Vargas is a very skilled, well-rounded, aggressive boxer with a good jab, good reach (4" reach advantage over Pacquiao), and what has recently proven to be a dangerous right hand. With only a 36% KO percentage Vargas isn't known for his power, but in his last couple of fights his big right hand led to an upset TKO victory of Ali and allowed him to stun and nearly knock down Bradley late in the 12th round of their fight in 2015. While not as reckless as he was in his prime, Pacquiao is still a highly aggressive fighter; if Vargas can time Pacquiao's attack, even one big counter right hand from Vargas could be devastating for Pacquiao. Pacquiao has proven at times to be susceptible to right hand counters (most notably Marquez's overhand right to stop Pacquiao in 2012 though Marquez had plenty of success with right hand counters in all four matchups with Pacquiao).

Vargas is the younger fighter (by over 10 years) in the middle of his prime while Pacquiao - though still arguably elite - is several years past his prime and highly prone to slippage at this point in his career,  especially given that his highly aggressive fighting style depends largely on a freakish athleticism that will inevitably deteriorate as he gets older. Pacquiao has generally fought well in recent fights but the fact remains he has lost 3 out of his last 7 fights (over 40% of his fights over the past 4.5 years). If we see further slippage from Pacquiao it would certainly open the door for the fresher, highly confident Vargas.

A classic Mexican-styled boxer, Vargas is a tough, scrappy fighter who has never been stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career (in the 3rd round of a fight he came back to win comfortably by unanimous decision). Vargas may be able to handle Pacquiao's power better than most expect; if so the newly found power in Vargas's right hand will present a huge threat to Manny's attacking, come-forward style over the course of the entire 12 rounds.

Pacquiao will be the overwhelming crowd favorite but this fight is talking place in Las Vegas, where Vargas has lived with his family and trained since he was a child; despite the potentially hostile environment at the Thomas & Mack Center, fighting in his adopted hometown should add an element of comfort for Vargas.

Prefight Analysis

Vargas is an underrated talent but I can't give him more than a puncher's chance to win this fight. It's true that Pacquiao is not the fighter he once was - not as strong, not as fast, and doesn't throw as many punches as he used to - but based on the performance we saw just seven months ago against an A-level fighter in Tim Bradley (a fighter who beat Vargas decisively), Pacquiao is still (at least) a level above Vargas in terms of speed, power, and skill.

Pacquiao will consistently beat Vargas to the punch and frustrate him with his speed, movement, and ability to land power punches cleanly from unexpected angles. Vargas was hit consistently and cleanly by Bradley in their 2015 fight (Bradley landed 49% of his power shots over the last six rounds of the fight) and he even had trouble in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Ali's offensive attack so he'll really be up against it facing a fighter who lands cleaner, faster, and harder than any other opponent he's faced in his career.

Vargas has a clear size and reach advantage but Pacquiao historically has looked even more impressive vs. bigger, taller, rangier fighters (see Pacquiao's fights vs. De La Hoya, Margarito, and Algieri) due at least in part to taller fighters having more difficulty being able to adjust angles to land cleanly vs. shorter, elusive opponents like Pacquiao.

Vargas is tough and durable, but is a basic and somewhat predictable 1-2 puncher who will likely be overwhelmed  by Pacquiao's speedy 3-5+ punch combinations and ability to get out of the pocket before Vargas has a chance to counter. Vargas has shown improved power in recent fights but Pacquiao in recent years has been a much more cautious, defensively responsible fighter than he was in his prime; I see Pacquiao being careful to keep his guard up (as he's done in all recent fights since the Marquez KO) and not allow Vargas to set traps and time him with a big right hand.

In my opinion, the only question in this fight is whether Pacquiao wins this fight by a wide unanimous decision or by stoppage. Pacquiao's A-level skills, speed, and power vs. a relatively inexperienced Vargas's pocket-oriented, somewhat flat-footed style makes a stoppage a very real possibility. But Vargas is a gritty, durable boxer who's never been stopped in his career in against a fighter in Pacquiao who's punch output has decreased dramatically over his past several fights and hasn't stopped anyone in nearly seven years. (Pacquiao's last stoppage came in November 2009 vs. a slightly weight drained Miguel Cotto.) While a knockout is a very realistic possibility (due to  Vargas's non-elusive, flat-footed style and discrepancy in skill, speed, and power), I like Vargas's larger, durable, younger frame to last 12 rounds vs. a more cautious-as-of-late Pacquiao who doesn't seem to have the killer instinct he had in his prime.

Pacquiao is a hyper-aggressive fighter  who is still at times defensively irresponsible; while I expect Pacquiao to win this fight easily, at odds better than 16-1, I do think it's well worth it to hedge a bet on Pacquiao with Vargas to win by stoppage given Vargas's grit and the respectable power he's shown in recent fights.

 Prediction: Pacquiao by unanimous decision
Recommended bets: 1) Pacquiao by unanimous decision (1.5 units)
2) Vargas by TKO/KO (.3 unit)

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