Pacquiao vs. Vargas: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Manny Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs)
Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: November 5, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: Top Rank PPV
Line: Pacquiao -570, Vargas +480 (5 Dimes, 11/5/16)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: not ranked (due to brief retirement), Vargas: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

To see if the recently unretired and current Philippine Senator Manny Pacquiao can reclaim his previously perennial status atop the welterweight division (and as one of the elite boxers pound-for-pound) by beating current WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas... or if the younger, technically skilled, and highly confident Vargas can pull off the defining win of his career by defeating one of the great boxers in the history of the sport in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas (where he has lived and trained since he was a child).

Pacquiao is not quite the electrifying fighter he was in his prime but - based on his impressive unanimous decision victory last April vs. Timothy Bradley - he still has elite speed and very good power, which should provide for an entertaining matchup with the scrappy, former two-time Mexican national champion Vargas, who likes to fight inside and will likely be willing to trade power punches with Pacquiao.

Pacquiao spent over 600 weeks (over 12 years) in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 rankings before dropping off earlier this year due to a brief retirement; a convincing win vs. Vargas will likely return him to top pound-for-pound status.

This fight will be shown on PPV, though will be televised by Top Rank PPV instead of HBO, who had been under contract to televise Pacquiao's fights. HBO declined to televise this fight due in part to lack of interest in the matchup with Vargas and to avoid clustering the HBO boxing schedule (Andre Ward/Sergey Kovalev PPV on November 19th and the now-canceled Fury/Klitschko matchup that had been scheduled for October 29th.)

Loquacious ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith will make debut as a boxing color analyst for this fight, commentating alongside Brian Kenny, who will serve as the blow-by-blow announcer. Tim Bradley, who fought Pacquiao in his last fight this past April and who fought Vargas back in 2015, will also serve as an analyst for the fight.

Why Manny Pacquiao will win

Pacquiao is universally considered one of the best boxers in the history of the sport and, alongside Floyd Mayweather Jr., is one of the top two boxers of this generation. Judging by his performance this past April vs. Bradley - a possible future hall-of-famer who was coming off of an impressive TKO victory of granite-chinned Brandon Rios - Pacquiao is likely still one of the elite fighters in the sport. The freakish, next-level athleticism and talent that made Pacquiao a global icon is for the most part still there.

Although more than 10 years older, Pacquiao still has clear and significant hand speed and power advantages over Vargas, who has shown some solid power in his last couple of fights but only has 10 KOs in 28 career fights (36%). Pacquiao is an ambush-style fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although not quite as fast or as strong as he was in his prime, it would be shocking if Pacquiao doesn't consistently beat the much slower Vargas to the punch with his speed and evade Vargas's pocket attack with his head movement and footwork, both of which are still amongst the best in boxing.

The 5'10" Vargas possesses a 4.5" height advantage and 4" reach advantage over Pacquiao, but Manny has had great success in previous fights vs. taller fighters with significant reach advantage (see his fights vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito, 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya, and 5'10" Chris Algieri who were all dominated by Pacquiao despite their height and a 5" reach advantage). Vargas is a solid, technically skilled fighter but his attack will likely be somewhat stymied vs. Pacquiao (as it was vs. 5'6" Tim Bradley) as he will at times have to bend over and adjust the angles at which he naturally throws punches to land clean punches vs. his shorter opponent.

With clear disadvantages in speed, power, talent, athleticism, and experience, Vargas's chances lie largely on whether he can time Pacquiao and land a big right hand to set up a TKO/KO upset - as he did in his last fight in a 9th round TKO victory vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali and as he almost did late in the 12th round of his June 2015 fight vs. Bradley when he stunned Bradley with a big right hook. But Pacquiao is a highly experienced fighter who has actually fought a much more cautious and defensively responsible style since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012; Pacquiao is better than he was even in his prime at keeping his guard up and still has very good head movement so it will be tough even for a skilled, classic Mexican-style boxer like Vargas to catch him with a big shot (especially given the speed disparity).

There's also the question of how much Pacquiao has really fallen off over the past few years. While obviously not the KO king he was in his prime (though the lack of KOs can mostly be attributed to  fighting guys who are naturally bigger than him at welterweight), his performances have still generally been top-level; Pacquiao's only losses in the last 4.5 years came vs. 1) an undefeated Tim Bradley in a split decision loss that the vast majority of boxing fans, experts, and media felt Pacquiao won decisively, 2) a KO loss to Marquez that Pacquiao was winning decisively and looking to finish early before getting caught with a big punch, and 3) a unanimous decision loss to a boxer widely considered the best fighter of this generation, Floyd Mayweather - a fight where he was able to win 4 rounds on 2 out of 3 of the judges' scorecards despite (at least according to Pacquiao) having an injured right shoulder. It can easily be argued that Pacquiao's skills haven't deteriorated nearly as much as people think and that he's (at 37 years old) maybe even the best welterweight in the world right now with Mayweather retired from the sport. 

Vargas is a good boxer and the current WBO welterweight champion but thus far in his career hasn't shown anything special to suggest that he would be a threat to upset Pacquiao. The best win of Vargas's career was his most recent fight vs. unbeaten, but unproven contender Sadam Ali and he lost convincingly in his 2015 fight vs. Timothy Bradley, a fighter Pacquiao has beaten convincingly twice (arguably three times). Over the past 17 years (spanning 38 fights), Pacquiao's only losses have been competitive losses to hall-of-fame caliber opponents (Mayweather, Marquez, Erik Morales, and possibly Bradley); Vargas is very widely considered a level (or two) below these caliber of fighters.

Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas - where Vargas has lived and trained for several years - the fan-friendly and still extremely popular Pacquiao is the main attraction for this fight and will be the overwhelming crowd favorite, which sometimes affects (in favor of the crowd favorite) the action inside the ring and the judging outside of it.

Even with the personal and political distractions in his life, Pacquiao has always been an unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights. But for less experienced Vargas this is his first time headlining a PPV card; it's unclear how the atmosphere and pressure surrounding his first PPV fight will affect him.

Why Jessie Vargas will win

Vargas is the current WBO welterweight champion of the world and is coming off of the best win of his career, a 9th round TKO vs. betting favorite Sadam Ali, who was undefeated at the time.

Vargas is a very skilled, well-rounded, aggressive boxer with a good jab, good reach (4" reach advantage over Pacquiao), and what has recently proven to be a dangerous right hand. With only a 36% KO percentage Vargas isn't known for his power, but in his last couple of fights his big right hand led to an upset TKO victory of Ali and allowed him to stun and nearly knock down Bradley late in the 12th round of their fight in 2015. While not as reckless as he was in his prime, Pacquiao is still a highly aggressive fighter; if Vargas can time Pacquiao's attack, even one big counter right hand from Vargas could be devastating for Pacquiao. Pacquiao has proven at times to be susceptible to right hand counters (most notably Marquez's overhand right to stop Pacquiao in 2012 though Marquez had plenty of success with right hand counters in all four matchups with Pacquiao).

Vargas is the younger fighter (by over 10 years) in the middle of his prime while Pacquiao - though still arguably elite - is several years past his prime and highly prone to slippage at this point in his career,  especially given that his highly aggressive fighting style depends largely on a freakish athleticism that will inevitably deteriorate as he gets older. Pacquiao has generally fought well in recent fights but the fact remains he has lost 3 out of his last 7 fights (over 40% of his fights over the past 4.5 years). If we see further slippage from Pacquiao it would certainly open the door for the fresher, highly confident Vargas.

A classic Mexican-styled boxer, Vargas is a tough, scrappy fighter who has never been stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career (in the 3rd round of a fight he came back to win comfortably by unanimous decision). Vargas may be able to handle Pacquiao's power better than most expect; if so the newly found power in Vargas's right hand will present a huge threat to Manny's attacking, come-forward style over the course of the entire 12 rounds.

Pacquiao will be the overwhelming crowd favorite but this fight is talking place in Las Vegas, where Vargas has lived with his family and trained since he was a child; despite the potentially hostile environment at the Thomas & Mack Center, fighting in his adopted hometown should add an element of comfort for Vargas.

Prefight Analysis

Vargas is an underrated talent but I can't give him more than a puncher's chance to win this fight. It's true that Pacquiao is not the fighter he once was - not as strong, not as fast, and doesn't throw as many punches as he used to - but based on the performance we saw just seven months ago against an A-level fighter in Tim Bradley (a fighter who beat Vargas decisively), Pacquiao is still (at least) a level above Vargas in terms of speed, power, and skill.

Pacquiao will consistently beat Vargas to the punch and frustrate him with his speed, movement, and ability to land power punches cleanly from unexpected angles. Vargas was hit consistently and cleanly by Bradley in their 2015 fight (Bradley landed 49% of his power shots over the last six rounds of the fight) and he even had trouble in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Ali's offensive attack so he'll really be up against it facing a fighter who lands cleaner, faster, and harder than any other opponent he's faced in his career.

Vargas has a clear size and reach advantage but Pacquiao historically has looked even more impressive vs. bigger, taller, rangier fighters (see Pacquiao's fights vs. De La Hoya, Margarito, and Algieri) due at least in part to taller fighters having more difficulty being able to adjust angles to land cleanly vs. shorter, elusive opponents like Pacquiao.

Vargas is tough and durable, but is a basic and somewhat predictable 1-2 puncher who will likely be overwhelmed  by Pacquiao's speedy 3-5+ punch combinations and ability to get out of the pocket before Vargas has a chance to counter. Vargas has shown improved power in recent fights but Pacquiao in recent years has been a much more cautious, defensively responsible fighter than he was in his prime; I see Pacquiao being careful to keep his guard up (as he's done in all recent fights since the Marquez KO) and not allow Vargas to set traps and time him with a big right hand.

In my opinion, the only question in this fight is whether Pacquiao wins this fight by a wide unanimous decision or by stoppage. Pacquiao's A-level skills, speed, and power vs. a relatively inexperienced Vargas's pocket-oriented, somewhat flat-footed style makes a stoppage a very real possibility. But Vargas is a gritty, durable boxer who's never been stopped in his career in against a fighter in Pacquiao who's punch output has decreased dramatically over his past several fights and hasn't stopped anyone in nearly seven years. (Pacquiao's last stoppage came in November 2009 vs. a slightly weight drained Miguel Cotto.) While a knockout is a very realistic possibility (due to  Vargas's non-elusive, flat-footed style and discrepancy in skill, speed, and power), I like Vargas's larger, durable, younger frame to last 12 rounds vs. a more cautious-as-of-late Pacquiao who doesn't seem to have the killer instinct he had in his prime.

Pacquiao is a hyper-aggressive fighter  who is still at times defensively irresponsible; while I expect Pacquiao to win this fight easily, at odds better than 16-1, I do think it's well worth it to hedge a bet on Pacquiao with Vargas to win by stoppage given Vargas's grit and the respectable power he's shown in recent fights.

 Prediction: Pacquiao by unanimous decision
Recommended bets: 1) Pacquiao by unanimous decision (1.5 units)
2) Vargas by TKO/KO (.3 unit)

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Crawford vs. Postol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) vs. Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: July 23, 2016
Weight class: Super Lightweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC and WBO Super Lightweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Crawford -570, Postol +480 (5 Dimes, 7/23/16)
Purse: Crawford: $1.3 million, Postol: $675,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #6 ranked pound-for-pound, #2 ranked junior welterweight, Postol: #1 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Postol: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

Terence Crawford is being promoted as potentially the next great American boxing superstar; this fight will go a long way towards answering whether he can achieve that potential. Saturday night's fight is the PPV debut for both Crawford and Postol. Both are undefeated with identical 28-0 records and are universally recognized as the top two fighters at 140 lbs. The winner of this fight will likely be the favorite as the next opponent for Manny Pacquiao, whose promoter Bob Arum (who happens to also be the promoter for both Crawford and Postol) has already reserved the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas for a PPV fight in November (though the fact that Postol and Pacquiao have the same trainer in Freddie Roach complicates things in terms of a possible Pacquiao/Postol matchup). The winner of this fight will not only be the WBC and WBO super lightweight champion, but will also be the lineal super lightweight champion (as Danny Garcia vacated that title to move up to the welterweight division.

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year - an up and coming potential superstar in Crawford who is already rated one of the best boxers in the world pound-for-pound vs. an arguably equally skilled but much lesser known fighter in Postol. Crawford is athletically superior in terms of speed, quickness, and power but Postol moves very well on his feet, has the clear reach advantage, and is generally more active in terms of punches thrown. The winner of this fight will be firmly established as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world and sit on the cusp of boxing superstardom, pending the potential fight with Pacquiao this fall.

Why Terence Crawford will win

Despite both fighters being undefeated and head and shoulders above the rest in the 140 lb division, Crawford is a wide 6-1 favorite for multiple reasons. Crawford is the athletically superior fighter, possessing better power, speed, and quickness than Postol (though Crawford's advantages here are perhaps not as wide as some think). Crawford is a two-division (former lightweight and current super lightweight) world champion and the more proven fighter, having beaten former world champions and top contenders such as Yuriokis Gamboa, Ricky Burns, Raymundo Beltran, Thomas Dulorme, Dierry Jean, and Hank Lundy. (Postol by comparison has fought only two opponents ranked in the top 20 within his division - Lucas Matthysse and Hank Lundy.)

Crawford's versatility - most notably his ability to fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance at an elite level - will likely pose problems for Postol whose defense can be a bit careless in spots... in particular the way he shoots his jab while moving to the right, which sometimes leaves him susceptible to right-hand counters. Crawford is an accurate counter puncher with power in both hands and is outstanding at making mid-round adjustments; one should expect he'll eventually have success penetrating Postol's defense despite Postol's constant foot movement and reach advantage.

Given Postol's lack of top-level experience, there is a reasonable chance he's overrated despite being undefeated and the #2-ranked fighter in the division. Crawford is a (huge) step up for him and is by far the most talented and skilled boxer he's fought in his professional career. Postol has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career (even vs. highly feared power puncher Matthysse where he displayed a solid combination of good chin and elusiveness defensively) but if Postol's undefeated record is more a case of him looking better than we thought he was vs. B- and C-level fighters, Crawford's power and skills (which are generally regarded as A-level) will likely expose Postol fairly quickly.  

At 5'11", Postol has a 3" height advantage in this fight and fights tall but that may work against him as Postol's relatively tall frame may prove to be an easy target for an accurate puncher like Crawford.

Postol has displayed surprisingly good power in his three fights under Freddie Roach but Crawford, like Postol, has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career and has shown an excellent chin in some of his more high profile fights (in particular vs. power puncher Gamboa) so one shouldn't expect a fighter with a 43% KO percentage in Postol to stop Crawford (or pose any sort of threat in terms of punching power for that matter).

Crawford is from Omaha, Nebraska and tonight's fight is in Las Vegas but Crawford's Omaha fanbase travels very well (Crawford's fight this past February in New York City sold out largely due to Crawford's fanbase) and the fact that Crawford is American should render Crawford the strong crowd favorite at the MGM Grand, which should provide motivation for Crawford inside the ring and could influence the judges' scoring outside of it. Crawford has been promoted as the A-side for this PPV event and - for numerous reasons - boxing politics would strongly prefer a Crawford vs. Pacquiao rather than Postol vs. Pacquiao matchup later this fall. If the fight is close one should expect the judging to favor the the fighter being promoted as a future superstar over the lesser known Ukrainian - even if Postol slightly outboxes him.

Why Viktor Postol will win

Postol comes into this fight as a significant underdog but - like Crawford - is an undefeated world champion in the 140 lb division. While not quite as athletic as Crawford, Postol - in my opinion - is on Crawford's level in terms of skill and boxing IQ. (In the effort to promote Crawford as a future superstar I do think Crawford's skills have been a bit overrated by numerous boxing outlets, most notably HBO Sports.)

Postol is a relatively tall (5'11"), lengthy (73.5" reach) fighter who is adept at working behind his long jab to set up combination punches from distance. With a long 70" reach, Crawford is a fighter who typically enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents, which he's often used behind the jab as a timing mechanism; Saturday night will be a rare instance where Crawford will not have a reach advantage (and on the contrary will actually have a clear disadvantage in reach).

As a combination puncher, Postol is a high punch volume fighter who moves very well on his feet. Crawford - especially in the early rounds - is typically a patient, cautious fighter who likely won't match Postol's work rate. Crawford is notorious for being a slow starter; in recent fights he lost the 1st round to Ricky Burns, lost 3 or 4 of the first 4 rounds to Gamboa, was trailing most of the 1st round vs. Beltran before rallying late to take the round, lost the 1st round vs. Dulorme, was losing the 1st round vs. Jean before scoring a knockout late in the round, and lost the 1st round vs. Lundy. Against a highly skilled, elusive fighter with a high work rate and considerable reach advantage like Postol, I actually expect Crawford to be trailing after the early rounds while trying to figure out how to break down Postol's relatively unusual combination of height, reach, high punch volume, and mobility. Given Postol's ability to fight off his back foot, there is a good chance that much of this fight is fought from the outside - where Postol likely has an advantage with his reach and work rate.
Three years ago, Crawford fought Prescott, a talented fighter with a height (5'11") and reach (72") similar to Postol's in a fight that Crawford dominated... but Prescott did not have the combination punching skills or work rate that Postol has.

Crawford has made a career recently of fighting talented, but undersized opponents; Crawford's last two opponents - Lundy and Jean - both were fighting at lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up in weight to fight Crawford. Both Gamboa and Burns were noticeably smaller than Crawford when Crawford fought them at lightweight. (Gamboa had actually been a featherweight - two divisions below lightweight - for most of his career but was still able to give Crawford a lot of problems in the early rounds of their fight.) Postol is a natural 140 lb fighter and is actually naturally bigger than Crawford. This will be the first fight of Crawford's career vs. a world-class opponent of his own size; Crawford may not be able to overpower Postol like he has many of the smaller fighters he's faced in recent fights.

Crawford slips punches well but at times gets careless and is more than willing to take punches to set up his own attack. (Gamboa in particular tagged Crawford quite a bit in the early rounds of their fight and tested his chin early.) Crawford has heart and a lot of street fight in him but that may work to his disadvantage vs. Postol's combination of intelligent movement. reach advantage, volume, and ability to box on his feet from distance. I would not be surprised if Postol is able to neutralize Crawford's strong jab game with his longer jab and movement, which may frustrate Crawford and lead to countering opportunities for Postol from distance as Crawford increases his aggressiveness in the middle and late rounds. Note also that Postol is proven to have a solid chin, having never been knocked down or knocked out in his career, including his most recent fight vs. one of the most feared punchers in the sport in Matthysse, who's had 34 of his 37 wins come by KO. Crawford is certainly more skilled than Matthysse, but does not have Matthysse's power and is not a particularly busy fighter so it is tough for me to envision Crawford winning this fight by stoppage given Postol's strong chin and elusive style.  Note that in training under Freddie Roach, Postol has had a lot of experience sparring vs. Manny Pacquiao, who has more power, speed, and arguably more skill than even Crawford.

With a career 43% KO percentage, Postol is hardly a feared power puncher but in his last three fights under Freddie Roach, Postol has been much more effective with his power, winning 2 or his last 3 fights by KO (vs. arguably the two toughest opponents of his career to date in Matthysse and Aydin). Postol is not a one-punch power puncher but is effective in wearing down his opponents with volume; I don't see Postol stopping Crawford but do think Postol has enough sneaky power to heavily frustrate Crawford if he stays busy and keeps Crawford at a distance with movement.

With his somewhat rare combination of height, reach, high-level skills, punch volume, and savvy ring movement, Postol has an unorthodox style that is difficult to prepare for and defend against. If Crawford is even slightly overrated - which I believe he is - Postol's style will expose Crawford fairly quickly and this will be a much, much closer fight than expected.

Prefight Analysis

I think Crawford is the better fighter overall and will probably win this fight. He is the more athletic, experienced fighter with advantages in versatility, power, and speed; as the fighter being heavily promoted by politically powerful boxing entities such as HBO Sports, Top Rank, etc. as a future superstar and with a potential Pacquiao/Crawford PPV megafight looming for early November, Crawford will likely win this fight on the judges' scorecards, even in the event of a close fight where Postol slightly outboxes him. Given how well Crawford's core fan base from Omaha travels and the fact that he is the American in this matchup with an entertaining, fan-friendly style, Crawford will also have the advantage of fighting in front of what should be an overwhelmingly pro-Crawford crowd in Las Vegas.

But even with these advantages (most notably the boxing politics, which in theory shouldn't be a factor but realistically has a good chance to be), I still give Postol a very realistic chance to win this fight. While I think Crawford is a fun to watch, highly skilled boxer, I think he's been a bit overrated in HBO's (in my view somewhat desperate) effort to find the next great American boxing superstar (and a superstar who can eventually replace Pacquiao as the network's next PPV cash cow). While not as athletic, I do believe Postol to be on Crawford's level in terms of skill and believe he has a difficult-to-solve combination of height, reach advantage, intelligent ring movement, and strong chin to highly frustrate even the usually unflappable Crawford.

The typically fast starting Postol will likely outwork the typically cautious, slow starting Crawford in the early rounds but I think Postol has the chin, stamina, and overall skills to win enough of the middle and late rounds to potentially steal a decision from the heavily favored Crawford. I think Crawford actually wins this matchup 65-75% of the time, but even at that win rate the nearly 5-1 odds you can get on Postol to win the fight (or better yet, the up to 7-1 odds for Postol to win the fight by decision) makes betting on Postol to win a very solid value bet.

While I think Postol by decision at 6.5-1 or 7-1 is a slightly stronger bet than Postol simply to win at nearly 5-1, 5-1 is high enough odds worth taking to mitigate the risk of a shocking stoppage of Crawford by the Ukrainian (which I don't see happening but, as he showed in his last fight vs. Matthysse, Postol is capable of wearing his opponents down with volume and has enough sneaky power in his right hand to catch a fatigued opponent late).

Postol is the best fighter Crawford has ever faced and is the first top-level fighter Crawford has fought that isn't undersized (and is actually naturally bigger than he is). Given his 3.5" reach advantage and own effective jab, Postol is perhaps the only fighter  at 140 lbs that can neutralize Crawford's typically highly effective jab game; if Postol keeps the fight at a distance and off the ropes with his reach advantage, he has a chance to come away with a decision on points by outworking Crawford with high punch volume.

Regardless of who wins this matchup, the chins on both fighters (neither Crawford or Postol have been stopped or knocked down in their professional careers, even though both have fought fighters with more power than what they're each facing tonight) are so solid that I think it's highly likely that this fight goes 12 rounds, making a bet on the fight to go 12 rounds at -160 odds perhaps the strongest bet. Even if Crawford performs better than I expect and is able to dominate and overwhelm Postol in the middle and late rounds, I still think Postol's foot movement, excellent chin, and ability to jab from distance will get him through 12 rounds without being stopped. As unflappable as Crawford typically is, Postol has displayed a similar lack of fluster under pressure (see rounds 6 and 7 of his fight with Matthysse).

Looking forward to this fight - very intriguing matchup that has potentially a myriad of ways to unfold!

Prediction: Crawford to win

Recommended bets: 1) Crawford/Postol goes full 12 rounds (1 unit)

2) Postol to win by decision (.5 unit)

3) Postol to win (.5 unit)

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Cotto vs. Geale: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (39-4, 32 KOs) vs. Daniel Geale (31-3, 16 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Cotto: -620, Geale: +515 (5 Dimes, 6/6/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion; Geale: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Geale: Orthodox


Positives for Cotto
Negatives for Cotto
Positives for Geale
Negatives for Geale
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Cotto

• Current WBC and Ring Magazine champion in the middleweight (160 lbs) division. Future hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, light middleweight, and middleweight). One of the best boxers of this generation.
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Stocky, physically strong boxer who pressures well to the body; Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in boxing. Has good power in both hands - especially his left - and throws combination punches very well. Has a deceptively powerful, accurate lead jab. Cotto has won 32 of his 43 fights by TKO/KO, a higher career TKO/KO percentage (74.4%) than current notable heavy punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, and Carl Froch. Cotto's last five wins have been by TKO/KO.
• Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from inside if needed. Naturally left-handed fighter who mostly fights from the orthodox position, but is capable at fighting from southpaw stance as needed. (Is adept at adjusting his range and stance based on his opponent.) 
• Technically sound fighter who will possess a speed, skill, and power advantage vs. Geale.
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. In his most recent fight (June 2014), upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Sergio Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had lost only one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Barclays Center as the official kickoff event for National Puerto Rican Day parade week. Cotto is 9-1 when fighting in New York City, including 5-0 the week of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 7-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history. After two consecutive losses in 2012 and contemplating retirement, has rejuvenated his career (and confidence) since hiring Roach with two straight TKO victories and earning his first middleweight championship. 

Negatives for Cotto

• Cotto is 34 years old and hasn't fought in nearly a year; how will the long layoff affect his performance? Although he has resurrected his career  with a couple of nice victories, he's not the elite pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was in his prime. (Cotto's power and speed have declined a bit over the past few years.)
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Cotto often neglects head movement, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. If a rugged, high volume middleweight like Geale has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be much closer than expected.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for only the second time in his career vs. one of the best middleweights in the world in Daniel Geale, who will come into this fight with significant advantages in size, reach, and height. Cotto beat one of the best middleweights in boxing history in his most recent fight vs. Martinez but how good was his win vs. Martinez? At the time, Martinez was a 39-year old fighter well past his prime with a debilitating knee injury that clearly affected his performance (and will lead to a probable retirement in the near future). How will Cotto, who spent the majority of his career at light welterweight (140lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) fare vs. a younger, healthier, more durable opponent who will likely enter the ring at over 170 lbs on fight night? I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotto have problems with Geale's combination of toughness, size, reach, and skill.    
• Cotto is a battle-worn fighter who has been through numerous wars and has at times been tested vs. bigger fighters with good boxing skills. In front of a largely pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden, Cotto lost a clear unanimous decision to Austin Trout in December 2012. He won a close split decision victory vs. Joshua Clottey in June 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. Geale is a bigger, highly-ranked contender that is comparable to Trout and Clottey in both skill and reach advantage.
• Cotto gets cut easily due to the scar tissue above both his eyes. If the larger, high volume puncher Geale stays busy and gets Cotto's face bleeding in the early or mid rounds the blood could certainly negatively affect Cotto's performance (as well as boost Geale's confidence).
• Cotto has shown questionable stamina in the past, having a tendency to tire later in fights - most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. Cotto also noticeably tired in the later rounds in his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, losing all of the later rounds in both fights and getting stopped by Pacquiao in the 12th round of their fight.

Positives for Geale

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight fighter. Three-time former middleweight champion who has been ranked among Ring Magazine's top 5 middleweights since 2010. Solid high-volume, come-forward fighter with good foot movement for his size.  
• Experienced, gritty fighter with an effective jab from range but is also more than willing to stay in the pocket and exchange inside. Throws overhand rights and hooks well behind his jab. Is a good body puncher with solid overall boxing skills. 
• Geale has only lost three times in 34 career fights with two of the losses by highly competitive, controversial split decisions (August 2013 loss to Darren Barker and May 2009 loss to Anthony Mundine). Has fought and beaten solid competition, including a split decision victory vs. then middleweight champion Felix Sturm in Sturm's home country of Germany and a unanimous decision victory in his rematch with Mundine in Mundine's home city of Sydney, Australia. 
• Unlike Cotto, is a true middleweight and will come into this fight as the larger man with a 3" height advantage and 4" reach advantage. May weigh up to 175 lbs on fight night, which will likely give him a 10-15 pound advantage vs. Cotto. Cotto has had trouble in some previous fights vs. larger, longer fighters with good movement (most notably his December 2012 loss vs. Trout). 
• Is a durable fighter with a fairly good chin and pretty good head movement. Geale's only loss by TKO/KO was to Gennady Golovkin, the current Ring Magazine #4 pound-for-pound boxer who holds the highest TKO/KO percentage in middleweight boxing history (90.9%). Despite the TKO/KO loss, Geale exchanged effectively at times and at times made Golovkin miss punches wildly with his movement. Other than the loss to Golovkin, Geale has never come close to being stopped.
• Has good stamina, which could come into play vs. Cotto, who has a history of tiring in later rounds.
• Generally unflappable fighter who has experience beating heavily favored opponents in front of hostile crowds (see his upset victory vs. then middleweight champion Sturm, who had a 14-fight unbeaten streak before losing to Geale). 

Negatives for Geale

• Geale is an over 5-1 underdog for a reason. He is the technically inferior fighter and will also have a power and speed disadvantage vs. Cotto. Geale is coming from another continent to fight in front of a hostile, pro-Cotto fight on the biggest stage of his career vs. the much more experienced Cotto, who is used to the big stage. Cotto lost in December 2012 to a larger, similarly skilled opponent to Geale in Trout but Trout was a southpaw with quicker movement than Geale; it will be tough for Geale to overcome Cotto's speed advantage.  
• Cotto is defensively flawed but Geale is not a big puncher (only 16 wins by TKO/KO in 34 fights) so likely isn't a serious threat to exploit Cotto's flaws and stop or hurt Cotto badly.   
• Despite being a middleweight (160 lbs) title fight, the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs which required Geale, a natural middleweight, to cut more weight than usual - which he reportedly had trouble doing. Athletes (especially boxers who generally have a low body fat percentage to begin with) cutting weight below their natural size often leads to dehydration and muscle loss, which could affect Geale's stamina and overall performance in tonight's fight.  
• Like Cotto, Geale has his share of defensive deficiencies. Often drops his hands and can be slow to put up his guard after throwing punches, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also doesn't protect his body well; Geale is a competent fighter in the pocket but against a great body puncher like Cotto will probably take the worst of exchanges on the inside, where Cotto's shorter height and short punches are actually an advantage vs. a taller boxer like Geale.
• Geale is a durable fighter with an above average chin but he has been knocked down in at least five fights in his career, including twice in last year's TKO loss to Golovkin.

Prefight Summary


If you believe Cotto's surprising TKO victory last year vs. Sergio Martinez was an impressive win vs. a sufficiently able-bodied, top 10 pound-for-pound all-time great middleweight then you have little reason to believe tonight's fight vs. a lesser opponent in Geale will result in anything other than a wide unanimous decision or stoppage for Cotto. Cotto is the more experienced, skilled fighter with the power and speed advantage facing a fighter who - while bigger than he is - doesn't have much punching power and has defensive flaws that will leave him susceptible to Cotto's vicious body attack. While Geale has good movement, he is by nature often more than willing to stay in the pocket and trade punches, which will likely be to his detriment vs. the quicker, more accurate Cotto who is one of the best body punchers in the sport. If you believe this version of Cotto, who has been dominant in his last two fights since switching to trainer Freddie Roach a couple years ago, is a reincarnation of prime Miguel Cotto then there's little reason to think this will be a difficult fight for him,  

But I think Cotto is being overvalued, while Geale is being undervalued coming into this fight. The reality is Cotto is past his prime and coming off a year-long layoff after beating a 39-year old fighter in Martinez who came into the fight with a debilitating knee issue. While Cotto looked good in the fight, it was clear Martinez was severely limited due to the knee injury and even then Cotto was unable to stop Sergio until the 10th round after knocking him down three times way back in the 1st round. Cotto has fought better in his last couple of fights after the consecutive losses to Mayweather and Trout in 2012 (which left him contemplating retirement), but the reality is he does not have the same power or speed at 34 years old that made him an elite fighter in his prime.

Geale is being undervalued largely due to relative lack of name recognition and Golovkin making him look like a journeyman in his dominant 3rd round TKO victory over Geale last year (most thought Geale would put up a better fight), but the reality is Geale has been a highly regarded, top-ranked middleweight for many years. The fight with Golovkin is the only fight of Geale's career where he's been stopped; other than Golovkin, Geale's only other losses were controversial split-decision losses vs. very solid opponents in Anthony Mundine and Darren Barker.

I actually think Geale has a realistic chance to win this fight. He is a tough, savvy veteran with good foot movement who should be able to use his size and reach advantage to frustrate the defensively flawed Cotto in spots. Geale is volume puncher with an effective jab and follows up with punches behind his jab (in particular his overhand right and left hook) well. If Geale can be effective with his punch combinations and cut Cotto early (Cotto has a history of bleeding easily due mostly to the scar tissue above his eyes) the fight could potentially get interesting - especially in the later rounds where Cotto is known to tire. With his reach advantage, volume punching, and movement, Geale has the skills to box with Cotto from range but also has the size and toughness to outmuscle the quicker but smaller Cotto inside.

While I feel this is a winnable fight for Geale, I think Cotto's top-level skill, heavy-handed body punching, and speed will be too much for Geale, whose (lack of) power poses little threat as a counter for Cotto's attack. Despite Geale's reach advantage and ability to move on his feet, Cotto is faster and should be able to get inside on Geale to land the effective shots necessary to earn a competitive but clear decision victory in front of what will be a Cotto-friendly crowd at Barclays. Cotto's last five victories have actually come via TKO but Cotto, especially at this stage of his career, is no Golovkin - I don't see him knocking out a true middleweight (who will likely outweight him by 10-15 lbs by the time of the fight) who is durable and moves as well as Geale.

With this said, I do think Geale's size, movement, and reach make the current 7-1 odds for Geale to win the fight by 12-round decision a good value bet so I strongly recommend this play as a smaller hedge with Cotto by 12-round decision at 1.4-1 odds as the primary bet (both bets are available at 5 Dimes). For example if risking $100 on Cotto to win the by decision, I would hedge the play with a $10-15 bet on Geale to win by decision at 7-1 to cover any potential losses from the Cotto bet.

Either way I think this will be a good fight that will go the distance so a simpler, less risky alternative play would be to bet that the fight goes the distance (currently -120 at 5 Dimes).

Final thought is to be aware that two key questions make this fight somewhat risky to bet: 1) How will a 34-year old Cotto perform after a one-year layoff from fighting? and 2) How will the 157 lb catchweight affect Geale, who apparently struggled to make weight and hasn't fought below 160 lbs in years?

Prediction: Cotto by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Geale by decision (+714)]

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Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 2, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, WBO, and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: HBO and Showtime PPV (joint venture)
Line: Mayweather: -190, Pacquiao: +175 (5 Dimes, 5/2/15)
Estimated Earnings: Mayweather: $180 million, Pacquiao: $120 million (based on 60/40 split of estimated $300 million in revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion and junior middleweight champion; Pacquiao: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Pacquiao: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Mayweather
Negatives for Mayweather
Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered one of the top two boxers - if not the top boxer - of this generation. Has won 10 world titles across 5 weight divisions. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (47-0 record). Current WBC, WBA, and Ring Magazine welterweight (147 lbs) champion, and WBC Super, WBA, and Ring Magazine junior middleweight (154 lbs) champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive techniques make him very difficult to hit cleanly. Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather opponents land the 2nd lowest percentage of punches of all CompuBox-tracked boxers.  (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.)
• Possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands a higher % of punches thrown than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Patient counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. As great as Pacquiao's speed is, Floyd actually has superior hand and foot speed which should result in success in evading Pacquiao's power and beating Pacquiao to the punch when necessary. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Savvy, crafty fighter who is highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Will have a clear advantage vs. Pacquiao in terms of both ring IQ and technical skill.  
• Experienced veteran fighting in his 25th world title fight (over half the fights in his career have been world title fights). The majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past eight years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the last two fights vs. Marcos Maidana, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Mayweather is usually the smaller man in the fight but will come into this fight vs. Pacquiao as the naturally bigger man. Will also have a significant (5") reach advantage which, when combined with his excellent foot movement, will make it difficult for Pacquiao to land punches consistently.
• Has an excellent chin. Has only officially been knocked down once in his career, a May 2001 fight vs. Carlos Hernandez where he took a knee in pain after breaking his left hand (due to a left hook which hit Hernandez's elbow). Has been hit flush by power punchers (most notably vs. Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Maidana) but always recovered to take control and dominate the remainder of the fight.
• Mayweather's power isn't great, particularly at welterweight, but is underrated. Mayweather does have 26 wins by TKO/KO in his career and opponents generally respect Mayweather's power due to the accuracy with which he lands punches. 
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Highly effective at using veteran tricks on the inside (e.g., timely use of his forearms and elbows to push opponents off) to create space while simultaneously landing clean punches. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Even at 38 years old is still in great shape and possesses excellent stamina; fights with as much energy in the later rounds of fights as the early rounds. Generally dominates the middle and later rounds of fights as his opponents tire.
• Two of the judges in the fight - Burt Clements and Dave Moretti - have judged multiple Mayweather fights in the past and generally turned in Mayweather-friendly scorecards. For example, Clements and Moretti scored the 1st Maidana fight 117-111 and 116-112 respectively for Mayweather while the third judge had the fight a draw. In the Mayweather vs. Hatton fight (December 2007), Clements and Moretti both had the fight scored 89-81 at the time of stoppage for Mayweather (giving Hatton only one of the first eight rounds), which was wider than most ring observers scored the fight. 
• For this fight Mayweather is working with noted strength coaches Alex Ariza (the former longtime strength and conditioning coach of Pacquiao) and Memo Heredia (the strength coach credited for increasing Juan Manuel Marquez's strength prior to his December 2012 KO victory of Pacquiao). It appears Mayweather is making a concerted effort to increase his strength for this fight, which certainly poses a threat to the at times defensively susceptible Pacquiao.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 38 years old - several years past his prime - and doesn't have quite the power, speed, or legs he had when he was younger (though his power and speed actually haven't slipped as much as many think). In two out of Mayweather's last three fights (1st fight vs. Maidana and his September 2013 fight vs. Canelo Alvarez), one of the three judges scored the fight a draw. Both of Mayweather's recent fights vs. Maidana - in particular the 1st fight - were competitive fights, among the closest fights he's had since his controversial victory vs. Jose Luis Castillo in April 2002. Pacquiao is a more much more skilled, quicker, and faster opponent than Maidana so if Maidana was able to give Floyd problems, Pacquiao at minimum should have some stretches of success in the fight. 
• Mayweather has never fought a fighter with with Pacquiao's combination of unpredictability, power, and speed. There's a good chance Pacquiao's awkward punching angles and quick in and out movement will frustrate Mayweather, particularly in the early rounds as he tries to adjust to Pacquiao's tendencies. The last time Mayweather fought someone with speed comparable to Pacquiao (Judah in April 2006), he lost three out of the first four rounds of the fight. The last time Mayweather fought someone with both great power and footwork (Mosley), he was rocked multiple times in the early rounds with power shots. Mayweather will almost certainly have trouble in spots with Pacquiao's combination of good movement, power, and speed, especially considering that Pacquiao - like Mayweather - has excellent stamina and is unlikely to tire over the course of the 12 round fight.
• Mayweather is an efficient, but low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds (per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight), his fights vs. southpaws Judah and De La Hoya (where he arguably lost three out of the first four rounds in both fights), and vs. 9-1 underdog Robert Guerrero (where he arguably lost the first two rounds of the fight). Although Pacquiao has been a more cautious fighter as of late, I would expect Pacquiao to outwork Mayweather in the early rounds and wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao is leading by multiple rounds early.
• Mayweather's primary defensive technique, the shoulder roll from an orthodox stance, won't be as effective  vs. an aggressive southpaw so he likely won't use it as much as he would vs. an orthodox fighter - which should leave him more vulnerable to clean punching.
• Mayweather has underrated power but he hasn't knocked down an opponent in over 3.5 years (September 2011 KO victory vs. Victor Ortiz when he caught an unsuspecting Ortiz with what many thought was a cheap shot). Mayweather's issues with power are in part due to having notoriously brittle hands, both of which he's broken multiple times over the course of his career. Although Pacquiao sometimes overcommits and leaves himself open to clean counterpunching, it is unlikely Mayweather wins this fight by TKO/KO due to his lack of KO power.
• Although fighting in his resident city of Las Vegas and in the MGM Grand Garden arena where he has fought his last 10 fights, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Pacquiao, which should motivate Manny and could influence the judges' scoring. 

Positives for Pacquiao

• Current Ring Magazine #3 pound-for-pound fighter and WBO welterweight champion. Has won ten world titles across a record eight weight divisions. Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still unquestionably one of the elite fighters in the sport. Pacquiao still has much of the incredible hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Aggressive "in and out" ambush fighter who is adept at moving "in" on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using quickness and foot speed to move "out" of range before his opponents can counter. Highly skilled with the use of feints and other deceptive movements to keep his opponents off guard. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork; this will be the first time in Mayweather's career that he has fought an opponent with Pacquiao's unique combination of movement, power, and speed. Pacquiao has the speed and stamina to stay with the typically elusive Mayweather and the power from various angles to keep him frustrated and on the defensive throughout the fight.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in 5.5 years (9 fights - his last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has legitimate KO power in both hands. In his most recent fight, knocked down then undefeated and current WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri six times. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight. Pacquiao's key advantage vs. Mayweather will be his power and threat to hurt him at any moment of any round during the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters (e.g., Mayweather) to anticipate where the punches are coming from - especially given the speed at which the punches are thrown. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley and his most recent fight vs. Algieri. 
• Although he has adopted a more cautious style in recent fights, Pacquiao is still a come-forward, relatively high-volume fighter who will likely outwork and perhaps display more effective aggression vs. the efficient but low-volume Mayweather throughout stretches of the fight. While Mayweather has a quickness advantage and can be expected to beat Pacquiao to the punch with potshots, Pacquiao is more adept at putting together quick combinations, which could look more impressive to the judges even if all the punches don't land cleanly. Pacquiao has a relentlessness and killer instinct that Mayweather doesn't have which may benefit him on the final scorecards.  
• Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent side-to-side head and upper body movement movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly. As noted above, has become a more cautious fighter in recent fights (i.e., has shown increased discipline defensively and doesn't overcommit with punches as much as he used to) so may be tougher for Mayweather to land punches than many may think.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over the past few years? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his December 2012 fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight -  knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's November 2013 fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) And in his most recent fight vs. then undefeated world champion Algieri, Pacquiao thoroughly dominated in knocking Algieri down six times and winning arguably every round of the fight. 
• Highly experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Pacquiao is certainly at a disadvantage in terms of technical skill and ring IQ vs. Mayweather but is a bit underrated in this regard. 
• Like Mayweather, Pacquiao has excellent stamina - even well past his prime at 36 years old. Does not tire in the later rounds of fights. Five of Pacquiao's six knockdowns in his most recent fight vs. Algieri came past the 5th round and Pacquiao pulled away from. then undefeated and Ring Magazine #3-ranked Bradley in the later rounds after a fairly even first half of the fight.
• As noted above the MGM Grand Garden arena will be a pro-Pacquiao crowd; partisan crowds can sometimes unintentionally influence judges' scorecards.
• Like Mayweather has performed best in his biggest fights. Am unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big money PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 36 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last five fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (9 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers (e.g., Mayweather). 
• Pacquiao is coming into this fight vs. Mayweather as the naturally smaller, shorter man with a 5" reach disadvantage. Pacquiao has in the past dominated boxers larger and taller than him (Antonio Margarito, Oscar De La Hoya, etc.) but the larger, taller opponent with comparable speed, longer reach, and superior boxing technique he is facing in Mayweather will likely be a much tougher task.   
• Pacquiao has never fought a boxer with the speed, accuracy, or technical skill of Mayweather. The closest Pacquiao has come to fighting a boxer resembling Mayweather is Timothy Bradley, who beat Pacquiao in a highly controversial split decision in their first fight and was very competitive with Pacquiao in their rematch, particularly in the early rounds. Mayweather is faster, more accurate, more skilled, and has more punching power than Bradley so will almost certainly be a much tougher test for Manny.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Although primarily a counter puncher, Mayweather is known to sometimes turn into the aggressor and walk opponents down in the mid to later rounds once he's solved an opponent's timing (which he did with success most recently vs. the much bigger Canelo in their September 2013 fight).
• While Pacquiao's defense and ring IQ have improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style (where he at times overcommits to punches) often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his 2nd fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. Mayweather is one of the great defensive fighters in boxing history; if he can get through the early rounds not too far behind on the scorecards he's more than capable - as Marquez did in multiple fights vs. Pacquiao  - of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws and overwhelm Manny in the middle to later rounds.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Philippines when he's not boxing and, as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Philippines. Mayweather has appeared to be the more focused, serious fighter during training while Pacquiao is not always 100% focused due to outside distractions... it will be interesting to see if this plays into the outcome of tonight's fight. 

Prefight Summary

For many years I've thought this would be an easy fight for Mayweather. In Mayweather you have arguably the most dominant defensive fighter of all time - an elite technician with excellent speed and underrated power - vs. Pacquiao, an outstanding but at times overly aggressive fighter with flaws in some of boxing's basic fundamentals which include defensive holes a master boxer like Mayweather could exploit with little effort. If Marquez, a fighter Mayweather had no trouble with even after a nearly two-year layoff from the sport, could give Pacquiao all he could handle over the course of four fights (some would say Marquez won three or even all four fights) with effective counter punching and timing, then why wouldn't Mayweather - a bigger, stronger, quicker, and more skilled counter puncher than Marquez - be able to dominate Pacquiao the same way he did Marquez? Floyd's skills also compare very favorably to Erik Morales, who beat Pacquiao decisively in their first fight with accurate counter punching and timing.

But styles make fights. While not possessing the same overall counter punching skill as Mayweather, Marquez and Morales (and to some extent Tim Bradley in his competitive fights vs. Pacquiao) were *aggressive*, higher volume counter punchers who were willing to take risks vs, Pacquiao that Mayweather is likely not willing to take. Marquez was knocked down six times by Pacquiao over four fights before the payoff KO victory in the 6th round of their most  recent fight. Morales and Bradley had success counter punching in many spots due to a willingness to stand in and trade vs. Pacquiao's feared combination of speed and power. Albeit more skilled and likely more adept to counter Pacquiao's over-aggressiveness and defensive flaws, Mayweather is a low-risk, low punch volume counter puncher compared to Marquez, Morales, and Bradley. Mayweather is far less willing to stand in and exchange punches with Pacquiao - which could be to his detriment on the judges' final scorecards.

Pacquiao will likely be the aggressor in the early rounds, coming forward and throwing his usual straight lefts and combinations while the more cautious Mayweather lays back and tries to figure out Pacquiao's timing. Besides Zab Judah (who won three out of the first four rounds in his fight with Mayweather), Pacquiao is the only fighter Mayweather has fought with comparable speed to his own. Pacquiao's speed combined with his elite power and awkward punching style will likely frustrate Mayweather early, if not throughout the entire fight. There is a reasonable chance the aggressive, high punch volume Pacquiao will outwork Mayweather and make his combination flurries (whether they actually land cleanly or not) look good enough that the judges score the fight for Pacquiao. Note also that part of Mayweather's success in mid to late rounds is that his opponents often tire in the 2nd half of fights; this won't be the case with Pacquiao (given his excellent stamina) so we could see an entire 12-round fight of Manny throwing punches with the low-volume Mayweather on his back foot throwing little in return - a scenario which could very easily result in a clear decision victory for Pacquiao.

But at the end of the day I think Mayweather has too many advantages in this matchup for Pacquiao to overcome. Mayweather is the bigger, stronger, smarter fighter with the significant reach advantage, better foot movement, and overall superior skill. Pacquiao has always been able to overcome bigger, stronger fighters with his unique combination of power and speed but Floyd should largely be able to neutralize Pacquiao's strengths with his own speed, reach, and defensive skills. Like Marquez and Morales in their wins vs. Pacquiao, I see Mayweather developing a timing on Manny as the fight progresses; he will compel Pacquiao to become over-aggressive in spots and to overcommit with punches - which should provide Mayweather the opportunity to land clean counter punches. Once Mayweather figures Pacquiao out, Pacquiao will find it difficult to land punches; unlike Mayweather Manny doesn't have the skill to re-adjust to Mayweather's adjustments down the stretch. Pacquiao generally makes up for his deficiencies in technical skill (e.g., vs. technically sound fighters like Marquez) with superior speed and athleticism but these qualities will be of little avail in this fight vs. the faster, more athletic Mayweather.

If this fight comes down to a preference of styles (i.e., Pacquiao's high volume and aggression vs. Mayweather's efficient, accurate punching) one very important point to consider is that two of the judges in this fight - Dave Moretti and Burt Clements - have in previous Mayweather fights scored the fights wider than expected in favor of Mayweather, an indication that they may prefer his accuracy and precision over high-volume activity that may or may not land cleanly.

I do think this fight could go either way - especially if Mayweather is in front of Pacquiao more than expected and lets Pacquiao outwork him - but I think Mayweather will be able to neutralize Pacquiao's advantages in power and punching volume with accuracy and timing and by utilizing his clear physical advantages en route to a competitive but clear decision victory. If there does happen to be a knockout in this fight I think it's much more likely the KO punch comes from the more precise Mayweather than from Pacquiao, would be looking to knockout an opponent who has only been knocked down once in his nearly 20 year career.

In any case, we can only hope and pray this fight lives up to the unprecedented hype!!!
   

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

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Matthysse vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Lucas Matthysse (36-3-0-1, 34 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs)
Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, New York
Date: April 18, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO
Line: Matthysse -165, Provodnikov +155 (5 Dimes, 4/18/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Matthysse: #1 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov: #3 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Matthysse: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox



Positives for Matthysse
Negatives for Matthysse
Positives for Provodnikov
Negatives for Provodnikov
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Matthysse

• Former interim WBC light welterweight champion. Along with Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev considered one of the best power punchers in boxing and is considered by many to be the most feared power puncher in boxing fighting under 160 lbs. Has legitimate KO power in both hands; 34 out of his 36 victories have come by TKO/KO. Has one of the highest KO% in boxing at 85% (34 wins by TKO/KO out of 40 fights). Arguably one of the top 5 offensive fighters in the sport.
• Aggressive, come-forward pressure fighter but also has decent, underrated boxing skills. Good combination puncher who throws a wide variety of power punches (overhand rights, straight rights, left hooks) from different angles and punches effectively both to the head and to the body. Cuts off the ring very well (though vs. another pressure fighter like Provodnikov he likely won't need to cut off the ring much, if at all).
• Has lost only 3 fights in his career - a close but clear unanimous decision loss to current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia, and two highly controversial split decision losses to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (both Alexander and Judah were knocked down in those fights). These 3 losses were vs. faster, more technically skilled boxers; vs. Provodnikov Matthysse will have the advantage in technical skill and hand speed. Has beaten well-regarded former world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, and DeMarcus Corley - all by early/mid round TKO/KO.  
• Overall, is clearly a better boxer than Provodnikov - has superior technical skills, better foot movement, quicker hands, and higher boxing IQ. Will have a 3" reach advantage vs. Provodnikov and is the more accurate, precise, powerful puncher. 
• Has a decent (though perhaps not great) chin. Has been knocked down 3 times in his last 3 fights (the first 3 knockdowns of his career), but recovered well and never seemed to be in any trouble after getting knocked down.

Negatives for Matthysse

• Matthysse has shown a fairly good chin in the past but how will his chin hold up on Saturday vs. the most aggressive, relentless power puncher he's fought in his career? Matthysse was knocked down 3 times in recent fights vs. Danny Garcia and John Molina Jr. - neither of whom are nearly as aggressive or relentless as Provodnikov (though Molina has comparable power). There is a high risk Matthysse goes down again in this fight if he does not get to Provodnikov first - it will be interesting to see how Matthysse recovers if this happens.  
• Matthysse has possibly lost confidence since getting knocked down for the 1st time in his career in his September 2013 fight vs. Garcia (which was the first uncontroversial loss of his career) and has been knocked down two more times since then. Provodnikov is a fiercely determined fighter with seemingly indomitable will who has broken the confidence of top fighters (see his October 2013 fight vs. then WBO light welterweight champion Mike Alvarado).  
• Employs a fairly effective high guard defense but his aggressive, pressuring style often leaves him out of position and open to counter punching. Not a particularly fast or elusive boxer, so Provodnikov, who is also very effective at cutting off the ring, will have his opportunities to land clean power punches. 
• Can be outboxed - in particular vs. speedier, technically sound boxers who move well (see his losses vs. Judah, Alexander, and Garcia) though he comes into the fight vs. Provodnikov with a speed and skill advantage so this likely won't be an issue tonight. But Matthysse may not have the technical skill or chin to keep the high volume and effective pressure of Provodnikov at bay.
• Though in recent fights has improved his work rate in early rounds, Matthysse is known for being a slow starter. Provodnikov will relentlessly pressure Matthysse thoughout the entire 12 round fight so would not be a good idea to get down early on the scorecards in this matchup.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. High volume pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who cuts off the ring well and hits especially hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. In March 2013, knocked down Timothy Bradley - who has one of the best chins in boxing - for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight, a fight which Ring Magazine named fight of the year. Lost a close unanimous decision victory vs. then #3 pound-for-pound ranked Bradley, a fight some felt he won.
• Has lost only three times in his career - vs. Bradley, Chris Algieri (June 2014), and Mauricio Herrera (January 2011); all three losses were close, controversial decisions. Has defeated former world champions Jose Luis Castillo (most recent fight), Mike Alvarado, and DeMarcus Corley.
• Is known for having an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Is a gritty, relentless, durable fighter with excellent stamina. Won't tire in the later rounds of fights. In terms of pure aggression and power will likely give Matthysse the toughest test of his career.
• Trained for this fight with 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach, under whom he has improved considerably since he began training with him in 2012. (Though because Roach is training Manny Pacquiao for his May 2 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, Roach's assistant trainer Marvin Samodio will be the lead trainer for tonight's fight vs. Matthysse.) 
• Humble, likeable boxer from a small village in Siberia with tremendous inner strength and indomitable will to win. Physically tough but even greater mental toughness.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as sharp as Matthysse's, are somewhat underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Provodnikov comes into this fight having lost two out of his last four fights, his most recent at the hands of relatively unknown and inexperienced Algieri, who was as high as an 8-1 underdog. Provodnikov's two most recent wins were a 5th round TKO vs. a past prime Jose Luis Castillo in Russia and a 10th round victory vs. Alvarado, who has lost four out of his last five fights.
• How good is Provodnikov's chin? Provodnikov is noted for never having been knocked down or knocked out in his career but he's also never fought a true power puncher in his prime. Provodnikov's three losses (to Algieri, Bradley, and Herrera) have all been against opponents considered relatively feather-fisted. Freddie Roach admitted in interviews during and after the Bradley fight that he almost stopped the fight in the later rounds due to the accumulation of punches Provodnikov was taking; if Provodnikov was almost stopped vs. a light-fisted Bradley how will he fare vs. one of the best power punchers in the sport in Matthysse? The true strength of Provodnikov's chin will be tested in tonight's fight. 
• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his losses vs. Algieri and Bradley. In addition to having better boxing skills, Matthysse will have a hand speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's predictable come-forward approach combined with lack of speed and defensive fundamentals often makes him easy to hit. Provodnikov is more than willing to stand in front of his opponents and take punches to throw punches, which may not work well for him vs. a devastating power puncher like Matthysse, whose only losses have been vs. technically superior fighters who stayed outside of his punching range. 
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses, especially vs. an accurate power puncher like Matthysse.

Prefight Summary

I think this fight ultimately comes down to how well Provodnikov's chin handles Matthysse's massive punching power. Provodnikov certainly has a very real chance to win this fight. He cuts off the ring just as well - if not better than - Matthysse and will attack Lucas with a combination of relentless aggression and power the likes of which Matthysse has never seen before in his career. Matthysse is not nearly as mobile as Algieri or Bradley (who handed Provodnikov his most recent losses) so he will be forced quite often to stand toe-to-toe with Provodnikov and slug it out. In a brawl such as this, it is largely a matter of which boxer has the greatest punching power, willpower, and chin. Provodnikov I believe has advantages in two out of these three attributes (willpower and chin) so I think he'll have the advantage if, as many expect, this fight turns into an all-out brawl.


Furthermore, it is possible that Matthysse has lost a bit of confidence in both his chin and punching power since losing to Danny Garcia; in that fight (in which Matthysse was listed as a 1-3 favorite), he was knocked down for the first time in his career and it was the first time he failed to knock down or knock out an opponent in over four years (over a span of 14 fights). In the fight following the Garcia fight, Matthysse was surprisingly knocked down two more times by 9-1 underdog John Molina Jr., who has comparable power to Provodnikov, but is not nearly as high volume or aggressive a puncher. If Provodnikov can turn this fight into a brawl and his chin is as good as advertised, there is a very good chance he'll wear Matthysse down and win this fight by TKO/KO in the mid to late rounds.



But I think the key point in evaluating this fight is noting that Provodnikov, while credited for having a great chin, has never fought anyone with Matthysse's brute punching power before. I can't help but think back to Freddie Roach admitting during the fight vs. Bradley that he was close to stopping the fight due to the punishment Provodnikov was taking. Admittedly, Bradley has top-level hand speed so can get his punches and combinations off quicker than Matthysse but he is also notorious for being a light puncher, having only 12 KOs in 34 career fights. If Provodnikov was in danger of being stopped vs. a feather-fisted Tim Bradley, I can't help but think he will be in for a very long night vs. one of the most accurate and heavy-handed power punchers in the sport, a fighter who has taken 34 of his 36 career wins by TKO/KO.


Provodnikov's come-forward, aggressive style will frequently leave him open to clean power punching over the course of the fight. Matthysse's hand speed is a bit faster than Provodnikov's so I see his punches generally landing first (before Provodnikov has a chance to land his) and landing more accurately, given Provodnikov's tendency to throw wild punches. I think we may find that Provodnikov's chin isn't quite as unbreakable as people think after being tested tonight by one of the best power punchers in the sport. This fight will largely be a matter of who gets to who first; I like Matthysse's power vs. a relatively slow, defensively negligient Provodnikov and think he will display just enough boxing skill and movement to keep Ruslan's power at bay. If Matthysse doesn't stop Provodnikov late, I like Lucas to win a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory.


But either way this fight should be a wildly entertaining fight-of-the-year (if not decade) level match-up that every boxing fan, whether hardcore or casual, should look forward to watching!

Prediction: Matthysse to win 

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Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO