Fight: Floyd Mayweather (49-0 26 KOs) vs. Conor McGregor (0-0, 0 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: August 26, 2017
Weight class: Super Middleweight (154 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather: -580, McGregor: +490 (
5 Dimes, 8/25/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: Not ranked (first fight in 23.5 months), McGregor: Not ranked (first professional fight as a boxer)
Purse: Mayweather: $100 million, McGregor: $30 million (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, McGregor: Southpaw
Referee: Robert Byrd
Why you should watch this fight
Mayweather vs. McGregor is considered by many to be the biggest event
in the history of modern combat sports (a history that spans 150+ years). The event is widely projected to set the record for highest grossing event in the history of boxing (exceeding the record $410 million in gross revenues earned by Mayweather vs. Pacquiao in 2015) as well as the record for most pay-per-view (PPV) buys in boxing (exceeding Mayweather vs. Pacquiao's record 4.6 million PPV buys).
This once-in-a-lifetime mega fight features Floyd Mayweather Jr. - considered by most to be the greatest boxer of this generation and considered by some to be the greatest boxer
ever - vs. Conor McGregor, by far the biggest name in MMA and arguably the best fighter in the MMA today pound-for-pound (
though is currently ranked by most #3 pound-for-pound behind Jon Jones and Demetrious Johnson).
Mayweather is an undefeated (49-0), all-time-great, five-division world champion boxer with nearly 21 years of professional boxing experience who has beaten a record 24 current or former world champions in what will be a first ballot hall-of-fame career. Tomorrow, he will be fighting an MMA fighter in McGregor who has
never boxed professionally (
0-0 record) and had an unremarkable amateur boxing career. Despite the obvious disparity on paper, there is still enormous intrigue here given that Mayweather and McGregor are by far the two biggest names in combat sports. Also, Mayweather is 40 years old, hasn't fought in nearly two years, and isn't the boxer he was in his prime while McGregor is over a decade younger (29 years old), in the prime of his career, and has a reputation for having very good to great boxing skills for an MMA fighter.
There seems to be a genuine belief amongst many (perhaps aided by McGregor's immense popularity and the desire by many - boxing and MMA fans alike - to see Mayweather lose his first fight) that McGregor has very realistic shot to win this fight, which is reflected in the fact that the overwhelming majority of bets on this fight (
reported as high as 95% of bets at the MGM sportsbook) are being placed on McGregor to win. Mayweather - who opened at some sportsbooks as more than a 20-1 (-2000) favorite - is currently only an approximately 6-1 (-600) favorite at most sportsbooks.
Will Mayweather reach 50-0 and surpass a record he currently shares with Rocky Marciano (49-0) for most career wins without a loss or tie by a current or former world champion upon retirement? Or will McGregor be able to take advantage of his size advantage at 154 lbs (a weight Mayweather has only fought at twice before in his career) to pull off what would be considered the greatest upset in sports history and put a permanent black mark on a sport in boxing that has struggled in recent years to retain its status as a mainstream sport?
Why Floyd Mayweather will win
At least on paper, Mayweather vs. McGregor may literally be the biggest mismatch in the history of top-level professional sports. Mayweather has never lost a fight (moreover has rarely even come close to losing a fight) and is one of the greatest boxers - arguably the single greatest defensive boxer - in the 150+ year history of modern boxing. Per (relatively objective) punch stat tracking, Mayweather is by far the most accurate, efficient, overall dominant fighter in the history of the sport for CompuBox-tracked fights. Mayweather is a former five-weight division world champion with over 21 years of professional experience facing an opponent in McGregor
who has never boxed professionally (and has had limited amateur experience vs. non world-class opponents). Mayweather - considered one of the more intelligent, crafty fighters in the history of the sport - comes into this fight with what should be an overwhelming advantage in pure boxing experience, skill, and IQ.
Mayweather is 40 years old (over 11 years older than McGregor) but - due to his risk-averse, defensive style - has taken minimal physical damage over the course of his career and will come into this fight with a very clear hand and foot speed advantage over McGregor despite not being quite as agile or having quite the reflexes he had in his prime. Even at his age, one would expect that Mayweather has retained enough of his typically excellent timing, speed, and accuracy to land his patented left hook and straight right at will vs. a fighter in McGregor who has not only never boxed professionally before, but has never been known for his defensive prowess - even in the octagon.
Indeed, Mayweather almost certainly isn't the pound-for-pound level fighter he was in his prime but as recently as two years ago - in his late 30s - Mayweather was ranked #1 pound-for-pound in the world and decisively beat then-world champion (and future hall-of-famer) Manny Pacquiao to unify the welterweight titles. Four months later, Mayweather won all 12 rounds vs. a younger, former world champion in Andre Berto in what was his last fight before tomorrow's matchup with McGregor. Both Pacquiao and Berto would be decisively favored to beat McGregor if they fought him today.
Eight years ago after a similar long layoff from boxing (21 months) a 32-year old, past-prime Mayweather returned to the ring to dominate future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez, who at the time was ranked the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world (behind only Manny Pacquiao) by
Ring Magazine. In tomorrow's fight he returns to fight an MMA fighter with no professional boxing experience.
Even stylistically, this is a very tough matchup for McGregor. In the UFC octagon McGregor is known as a counterpuncher - he does not have experience employing the aggressive, come-forward, high punch output style that has at times given Mayweather difficulty in previous fights (see his first fights vs. Jose Luis Castillo and Marcos Maidana). Employing a highly aggressive, brawling style would likely give McGregor his best chance to win the fight but using a style he's essentially never employed before (neither in the octagon nor the ring) is extremely risky vs. a highly experienced, skilled boxer like Mayweather. On the other hand, if McGregor sticks to his traditional counterpunching style, he'd essentially have to out counterpunch/outbox one of the greatest counterpunchers in the history of the sport. And do that in the first professional boxing match of his career.
The fact that Mayweather, a known control freak who - as the "A" side of all his recent fights - typically tailors even the minute details of his fights (e.g., size of the boxing ring, type of gloves, etc.) to his advantage,
was willing to allow 8 oz. gloves (instead of the standard minimum 10 oz. gloves for weight divisions above 154 lbs) reveals how confident he is coming into this fight. Smaller gloves increase the impact of power punches - which in theory should be beneficial for a power puncher like McGregor who's had an impressive 18 of his 21 career MMA wins come by knockout - but the smaller gloves may be much more likelier to benefit the quicker, much more savvy Mayweather assuming he (as is expected in this matchup ) lands the cleaner punches at a much higher percentage.
McGregor is a southpaw known for his immense punching power and ability to throw effective punches from unpredictable angles. But Mayweather has experience fighting much more experienced and skilled boxers (i.e., former world champions) with many of those same traits (see his fights vs. Pacquiao, Maidana, and Zab Judah) and beaten those fighters decisively.
All indications are that McGregor has trained hard for this fight but he is known for having stamina issues in five-round MMA fights. It's difficult to imagine - no matter how hard he's trained over the past couple of months to improve endurance - that he won't experience stamina issues over the course of a 12-round fight (which I'll remind the reader yet again is his first ever professional boxing match) trying to chase down one of the most elusive boxers in the history of sport in terms of both foot and vertical body movement. I'd anticipate McGregor's legs and any meaningful KO punching power will significantly deteriorate by the middle rounds of the fight (if the fight even lasts that long) given Mayweather's skill at forcing his opponents to expend unnecessary energy chasing him around the ring.
Solid boxers who have sparred with McGregor (
former minor world title holder Chris van Heerden last year and
former two-division world champion Paulie Malignaggi a few weeks ago) were both unimpressed with McGregor's boxing skills and claim to have easily gotten the better of McGregor in sparring despite being relatively unprepared and relatively out of shape for the sparring sessions. Both fighters - neither of whom today would be considered on the level of a 40-year old Mayweather - would be strongly favored over McGregor if they were fighting him this week. Most professional boxers - whether top-level or journeyman - would be favored to beat a fighter in McGregor who - as naturally talented as he is - has never boxed professionally before. A McGregor win over Mayweather this weekend would likely be the greatest upset in the history of professional sports (at least in terms of historical significance, if not pure magnitude).
Why Conor McGregor will win
McGregor has never boxed professionally but he actually does come into this fight with several advantages.
He is (by far) the younger fighter in this matchup and is in his prime facing a 40-year old fighter in Mayweather who hasn't fought professionally in nearly two years. As perhaps the greatest defensive fighter in the history of the sport Mayweather has taken minimal punishment in his career, but it's impossible to predict how much Mayweather's skills have declined given his age and the fact that he is coming off the longest layoff of his career. While still effective enough to decisively outpoint top-level opponents, Mayweather's speed, reflexes, power, etc. have noticeably deteriorated in recent fights. One can reasonably assume the skills of a 40-year old man who's spent nearly two years out of the ring have deteriorated even further - the big question in tomorrow's fight is... to what extent?
McGregor has never boxed professionally but is known to have excellent boxing skills for an MMA fighter. He's an aggressive counterpuncher with very good punching power (having had 18 of his 21 career victories coming by TKO/KO) and a seemingly granite chin. While not as fast as Mayweather, McGregor also moves well on his feet and possesses deceptive hand speed. McGregor is a southpaw who is adept at throwing power punches from awkward angles that can be difficult for opponents to time effectively.
McGregor has three losses in his MMA career but all three losses were the result of MMA submissions. McGregor has never been stopped from a boxing stance and has generally been dominant vs. MMA opponents from that position.
Though known as a counterpuncher in the octagon it is not known (given that he's never boxed professionally) what style he'll employ in Saturday's fight vs. Mayweather - i.e., whether he attempts to use his counterpunching abilities and range to outbox Mayweather in spots and possibly land big punches from distance or turn the fight into a physical brawl and outwork Mayweather from inside (a style he could be surprisingly effective at given his extensive grappling experience from MMA). McGregor's size advantage, notable punching power, awkward offensive attack, and the fact that it will be very difficult for Mayweather to effectively prepare for McGregor's style (given that this is McGregor's first pro boxing match - thus doesn't have an established boxing style) underscores the legitimate "puncher's chance" he has vs. an aging, slowing Mayweather who has had problems in previous fights vs. unpredictable fighters who throw power punches effectively from awkward angles (e.g., multiple stretches of his fights with Pacquiao and Maidana).
McGregor is the naturally bigger fighter (having fought as high as 170 lbs in MMA competition, most notably in his majority decision victory vs. Nate Diaz) with a slight height and 2" reach advantage. Throughout his career, Mayweather has noticeably avoided similarly built fighters (i.e., taller, rangier, maybe a bit bigger - see Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito, and Amir Khan who each called him out repeatedly to no avail) who possess effective punching ability. Fighters with these traits pose arguably the most dangerous threat to his defensively-oriented, relatively low-output style where he is usually able to exploit a reach advantage to control fights with a long jab and elusive movement. Depending on how far Mayweather's skills have deteriorated, there is a chance McGregor could control certain spots in the fight getting physical with Mayweather, using his size advantage and high punch output to outwork Floyd (as Joe Horn effectively did last month in his massive upset of Pacquiao).
Last week, the Nevada State Athletic Commission unanimously approved use of 8 oz. gloves for Saturday's fight - a one-time exception from the long-standing requirement that 10 oz. gloves be used for fights contested above 147 lbs. The smaller gloves (and resultant smaller padding surrounding the core of the gloves) naturally increases the likelihood that McGregor - a very good power puncher (at least by MMA standards) who will likely come into this fight weighing 10-15 lbs more than Mayweather - can land that one big punch (or series of big punches) necessary for a TKO/KO victory. (Though it should be noted that the smaller glove size increases Mayweather's chances of winning by TKO/KO as well.)
Despite this fight taking place in Las Vegas, the city where Mayweather has lived and trained for over 20 years and fought his last 14 fights, the crowd at the T-Mobile Arena (which will include many of the thousands of fans who have already flown over from Ireland to watch the fight) is expected to overwhelmingly favor McGregor - which could provide a confidence boost for the Irish fighter inside the ring and perhaps influence the judges' scoring outside the ring if there happen to be close rounds.
But even without the enthusiastic crowd support he's expected to receive, McGregor is is a highly confident fighter who genuinely believes he will win this fight. Less than five years ago, McGregor made his UFC debut as an unheralded prospect; within a couple of years he became a UFC world champion and the biggest name in mixed martial arts. McGregor has defied odds in the past - if he can catch momentum early in the fight and Mayweather's skills have deteriorated more than expected, it's within reason that his confidence and fighting spirit could keep him competitive and give him a chance to pull off a massive upset.
Prefight Analysis
Yes- McGregor does have a puncher's chance to win this fight. He's the (much) younger fighter in this matchup, facing a 40-year old fighter in Mayweather who - while certainly one of the all-time greats - hasn't fought in nearly two years and showed signs of slippage in his fights prior to his layoff. There's a popular saying about Father Time being undefeated and the fact is no one really knows to what extent Mayweather's skills have deteriorated in his time away from the ring.
McGregor is the naturally bigger fighter - having fought regularly in the UFC at 155 lbs and at weights as high as 170 lbs - and is expected to come into tomorrow's fight with at least a 10-15 lb weight advantage over Mayweather, who has only fought at 154 lbs twice in his career (in wins vs. Oscar De La Hoya and Miguel Cotto). In terms of physical traits (i.e., taller fighter with good reach and punching power), McGregor is exactly the type of fighter Mayweather avoided even in the prime of his career and - unlike essentially every other opponent in Floyd's career - will be nearly impossible to prepare well for given that he's never boxed professionally.
McGregor's unpredictable tactics and MMA-proven ability to throw highly effective power punches
(particularly with his left hand) from awkward angles is a key advantage. If McGregor can land even one solid shot vs. the 40-year old former champion, you never know how that could turn the fight. Given the higher weight class (than what Mayweather is accustomed to) and McGregor's seemingly solid chin (plus the fact that McGregor really has nothing to lose given that this is his first professional boxing match and is not expected to win this fight), I expect McGregor to take some big risks and land at least a few clean punches in exchanging with Mayweather... the question is how clean will those punches land and to what extent will those punches affect Mayweather? McGregor has enough physical advantages in this fight as to where he does have a legitimate "puncher's chance" to win this fight.
But a "puncher's chance" is very literally the only chance McGregor has to win this fight. My assessment of fight is that it is one of the most lopsided matchups (and mispriced bets) in the history of mainstream professional sports. (The mispricing here is due in large part to the number of MMA and casual sports fans looking for a big return on investment by betting on McGregor.) The reality of this fight is you have one of the all-time boxing greats in Mayweather - statistically perhaps the most dominant boxer ever who has taken minimal punishment in his career and, while not the boxer he was in his prime, is still likely capable of winning major world titles in the sport - vs. a fighter in McGregor who has never boxed before (and has limited experience even at the amateur level).
This fight is a "mismatch" in the purest sense of the word and, with Floyd as only a 6-1 favorite, is grossly mispriced. (I'd honestly grade McGregor as somewhere between a 33-1 and 99-1 underdog consistent with the 1-3% chance I give him of winning this fight.) It's beyond absurd, for example, that McGregor - as an approximately 5-1 underdog - is a smaller underdog vs. an undefeated Mayweather than former world champions in boxing like Berto (as high as 50-1), Maidana (as high as 14-1), and Robert Guerrero (as high as 9-1) - all of whom were talented, highly-skilled, world-class boxers who spent the majority of their lives honing their boxing craft to earn their shot vs. Mayweather.
Despite being 40 years old and the smaller guy, Mayweather comes into this fight with a virtually infinite advantage in boxing experience (given that he is facing a fighter with zero professional boxing experience) and is expected to have a clear advantage in speed, quickness, and skill. Conor has experience boxing under MMA rules, but MMA is an entirely different sport with different rules (and thus a different strategy construct).
There is a reason even the most talented and skilled boxers are brought up slowly in the first phase of their professional careers; lack of experience can result in even gifted boxers taking a loss vs. less skilled (but more experienced) talent (see pound-for-pound ranked Vasyl Lomachenko's loss to Orlando Salido in 2014 as a recent example). McGregor is a very good boxer by MMA standards but does not come close to approaching the talent of Lomachenko (or likely even the talent of the journeymen Mayweather fought in the early and middle stages of his career for that matter); while not clearly quantifiable, the experience gap is - in my opinion - by far the biggest advantage Mayweather has in this fight, never mind his historically great talents and skill.
I believe, far and away, that the most likely outcome of this fight is Mayweather by TKO/KO (and quite frankly would be very surprised and consider it a massive disappointment for Mayweather if he doesn't stop McGregor). Once Mayweather develops a read and gets comfortable with McGregor's style he should be able to land at will on McGregor, given the Irish fighter's overall raw inexperience and inexperience with basic defensive boxing fundamentals. I think Mayweather by TKO/KO at any price up to -200 is likely the best value bet for this matchup (though this bet can currently be found as low as -150).
But given Mayweather's age, brittle hands, and risk-averse boxing style I'm more inclined to take the virtually "sure" outcome and place the majority of my bet on simply Mayweather to win (which currently can be found as low as -500). Again, the current value on Mayweather might be the best value (outside of accidental mispricing) I've ever seen in my entire time betting on sports; bankroll management and the possibility of McGregor landing a lucky punch or a 40-year old Mayweather suffering a freak injury during the fight are literally the only reasons why I wouldn't risk at least 90% of my bankroll on Mayweather to win. As it is, I am content risking over 15% of my bankroll betting on Mayweather to win (and a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Mayweather by TKO/KO).
Should be an entertaining event, though not necessarily an entertaining fight!
Prediction: Mayweather by TKO/KO/DQ
Recommended bets:
1) Mayweather to win (3 units)
2) Mayweather by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)
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