Fight: Ryan Garcia (20-0, 17 KOs) vs. Luke Campbell (20-3, 16 KOs)
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TexasDate: January 2, 2021
Weight class: Lightweight
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Garcia: -440, Campbell: +350 (1/2/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5-ranked lightweight, Campbell: #4-ranked lightweight
Style: Garcia: Southpaw, Campbell: Southpaw
Prefight Analysis
So, I fully expect Ryan Garcia - probably the most popular boxing sensation we've seen under the age of 25 since a young Oscar De La Hoya in the mid/late 1990's - to win Saturday's fight vs. Luke Campbell, most likely by stoppage. At just 22 years old he's inexperienced and still a bit raw, but the signs are there that this is a future superstar in the making. Garcia's combination of fast-twitch hand speed and one-punch KO power (power that rates pound-for-pound with the very best in the sport) is rare, as evidenced by his last three fights ending inside 2 rounds - including his most recent fight vs. Francisco Fonseca (1st round KO), a fighter who it took current undefeated WBA (regular) lightweight title holder Gervonta Davis 8 rounds to stop back in 2017, when Davis was Ryan's current age (in what was widely considered a disappointing performance from Davis).
Campbell is a world-class, battle-tested fighter with a highly impressive amateur pedigree (which includes a 2012 Olympic gold medal), and has the footwork and discipline defensively to frustrate the inexperienced Garcia and prevent him from getting the early stoppage he's been accustomed to in recent fights. Despite this, Garcia's (wide) advantage in hand speed and comparable reach relative to Campbell should allow him to be reasonably effective in landing a good portion of his patented left hooks and straight right hands over the course of the fight. The concussive power that complements Garcia's quick hands might be an insurmountable obstacle for a somewhat chinny Campbell who, while durable (having never been stopped in his professional career), has been knocked down four times in his last 11 fights - all at the hands of fighters with considerably less punching power than Garcia.
Garcia is a young, supremely confident boxer who has shown vast improvements in recent fights, having knocked out all four fighters he's faced inside of 5 rounds since switching trainers two years ago from his father to reigning BWAA trainer of the year - and current trainer of Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1 Canelo Alvarez - Eddy Reynoso. He's an undefeated Mexican-American fighter with one of the highest KO percentages amongst world title contenders in the sport (85%). And - given his talent combined with his considerable social media following - Garcia is considered by many far and away the fighter out of the current stable of young American boxing stars (a stable which includes current lightweight world title-holders Gervonta Davis, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney) most likely to follow Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather to become the next American boxing superstar.
Consider that, with over 12.5 million followers over the primary social media platforms (Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok - more followers than even Canelo and 2nd in number of followers only to current unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua amongst active boxers in the world), Garcia will likely be the promotional A-side for every fight he's involved in for years to come (at least until he loses). In this sort of spot - especially in the Mexican-American friendly confines of the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, where Garcia will undoubtedly be the overwhelming crowd favorite - the A-side usually gets the nod in close fights that could go either way. Garcia is backed financially by boxing powerhouses Golden Boy Promotions and DAZN to be the next generational superstar in boxing - one would suspect that it would take a clearly superior performance from Campbell to overcome the promotional and hostile crowd biases he'll face outside the ring.
But the odds on this fight at U.S. sportsbooks are currently as high as 3.5-1 (implying that Campbell wins this matchup between 20-25% of the time), which I think is a bit absurd - even with Ryan's undeniable talent inside the ring and aforementioned intangible advantages (promotional A-side, crowd favorite) on the outside. Campbell is a world-class, proven fighter with experience who will by far be the most difficult test of Garcia's career to date. Campbell does have three losses, though two of those losses (to highly regarded then-WBA lightweight champion Jorge Linares in 2017 and French contender Yvan Mendy back in 2015) were very close, split-decision losses - with the loss to Mendy being avenged by Campbell in 2018 via unanimous decision victory. Campbell's only other loss was in 2019 to then pound-for-pound #1 Vasiliy Lomachenko in a fight where Campbell frustrated Lomachenko and gave him one of the tougher fights of his career even in what was a fairly wide unanimous decision loss. In the loss, Campbell buckled Lomachenko a couple of times, including a left hook to the body in the 7th round that forced Lomachenko to hold to regain his composure.
If Campbell could go 12 rounds and land solid power shots vs. a supremely talented, elusive Lomachenko, there's no reason to think he couldn't be more effective vs. a less experienced Garcia who isn't nearly as defensively sound or slippery as Lomachenko. At 5'10", Garcia is a relatively tall fighter for his weight class who often fights in an upright stance (often leaving both his body and chin exposed). I anticipate Garcia's boxing stance, combined with his relatively flat-footed style, providing ample scoring opportunities for a fighter in Campbell who - with a career KO percentage of 70% - has underrated punching power in his own right.
Campbell matches up with Garcia better than any fighter Garcia's fought previously in terms of size and reach, and is the more experienced, technically sound boxer. As Campbell showed in his fights with Lomachenko and Linares, he has the footwork and durability to go the distance with even immensely talented, A-level fighters; I feel Campbell will be able to frustrate Garcia early with this footwork and durability and begin to land serious power shots of his own in the middle to late rounds.
Garcia's lack of experience vs. top-level competition is by far the biggest question mark in this fight. He's fought only 4 rounds in the past two years (all vs. B and C-level opponents); the last time he actually went the distance was a majority 10-round decision victory in 2018 vs. Mexican journeyman Carlos Morales in a fight where Ryan was hurt late in the 7th round and that many thought he lost.
While I like Garcia's talent and potential - the unknowns of how a still-raw 22-year old kid will perform vs. a legitimate top-level, battle-tested contender who has won Olympic gold and has been competitive vs. pound-for-pound A-level talent makes me feel the current +350 odds (or anything +300 and above for that matter) for Campbell is a price too good to pass up. Again, I do think Garcia probably wins this fight (and likely wins the fight by stoppage given the hand speed and power discrepancy vs. a fighter in Campbell who doesn't have the best chin). But the better value in my mind lies with the much more experienced, battle-tested fighter who also happens to have good power in a matchup vs. a young guy whose chin has never been tested at this level.
Either way, this fight should reveal a lot about where Garcia stands as a title contender and potential future superstar in the sport. Will Garcia shine like a then similarly inexperienced and untested Gervonta Davis did four years ago as a 22-year old when he stopped an undefeated Jose Pedraza for his first world title? Or will Saturday's fight prove Garcia isn't quite ready for the world-class stage yet (or even provide evidence that he'll never be ready)? As recently as last year, Garcia's promoters at Golden Boy were hesitant to put him in vs. top-level competition so tonight's fight should answer a lot of questions!
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