Fight: Danny Garcia (31-0, 18 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (33-3-1, 18 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: January 23, 2016
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Welterweight title (recently vacated by Floyd Mayweather Jr.)
TV: Fox
Line: Garcia -1000, Guerrero +800 (5 Dimes, 1/23/16)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #8 ranked welterweight; was Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion prior to moving up to welterweight, Guerrero: Not ranked (#6 ranked welterweight by WBC)
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Jack Reiss
Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Garcia opened in late December of last year as a solid -825 favorite, with Guerrero as a 4.75-1 (+475) underdog. Betting has fluctuated since then but for the most part has been with the younger, undefeated Garcia, who is currently a -1000 favorite, with Guerrero priced as an 8-1 (+800) underdog.
Why Danny Garcia will win
On paper this could be an easy fight for Garcia. He is an undefeated former junior welterweight champion with power and is in the prime of his career facing an older, very battle worn fighter in Guerrero - who is just 2-2 in his last four fights. Each of Guerrero's last three fights have been wars and he was knocked down in the most recent two of those fights (vs. Aaron Martinez and Keith Thurman).
Garcia is a patient and poised counterpuncher who should be able to capitalize on the fact that Guerrero's reflexes and defensive skills appear to have waned with age and the wear and tear of those recent fights (as evidenced by the fact that Guerrero barely won a split decision as a 40-1 favorite in his last fight vs. Martinez, which included getting knocked down early by an opponent in Martinez who has only won 4 of his 25 career fights by TKO/KO). Garcia has generally had problems with fighters who move well and can box from distance but Guerrero, despite having the ability to box from the outside, is a brawler at heart and will likely stand right in front of Danny for large portions of the fight.
In terms of experience, Garcia has been criticized for title defenses vs. questionable opponents but his overall resume is pretty solid, having beaten quality opponents such as Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Amir Khan, Erik Morales (twice), and Zab Judah. Garcia has actually been an overachiever in his (thus far perfect) career, decisively winning fights even when he came in as a clear underdog (as was the case when he fought Matthysse and Khan, who were among the most feared and avoided fighters in boxing at the times Garcia fought them).
Garcia has never been knocked down or knocked out as a pro so it would be tough to imagine Guerrero - especially at this point of his career - affecting the course of this fight with his power. (Guerrero hasn't knocked down an opponent since his fight vs. Andre Berto in November 2012.)
Guerrero on the other hand has been getting hit often and fairly consistently throughout his recent fights; Garcia is a very good offensive fighter who should be able to land power punches - including his left hook which is considered by many one of the best left hooks in boxing - with little difficulty. Garcia has knocked down his opponent in six out of his last eight fights (with ten knockdowns in those six fights) so it would not be a surprise to see Danny score knockdowns vs. Guerrero and possibly even get the stoppage vs. a past prime (and seemingly rapidly fading) Guerrero.
Why Robert Guerrero will win
Yeah he's a sizable underdog, but we can't forget that Guerrero is a former world champion/interim world champion in four weight divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight) and just 2.5 years ago was ranked the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #9 fighter in the world after having gone over seven years without losing a fight. The fact is Guerrero could (and can still) box; from a technical standpoint many would say he actually has better boxing skills than Garcia both from distance and on the inside.
Guerrero is a crafty, technically skilled southpaw who still poses a challenge even for A-level opponents with his experience, toughness, and versatile inside/outside boxing abilities. The only clear losses in Guerrero's career were against Keith Thurman and recently retired pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. - two A-level fighters who move well; Garcia is not as skilled or mobile as either of the two. Guerrero is the much more experienced inside fighter so could have a tactical advantage in a brawl (and most recent Guerrero fights have devolved into brawls), but Guerrero could also give Garcia problems if he stays on his feet and boxes from the outside, a style which has given Garcia problems in multiple recent fights (including his recent controversial decisions vs. Peterson and Mauricio Herrera).
It's important to note that Guerrero has had six fights over the last three years at welterweight (where he was an interim world welterweight champion), whereas this will only be Garcia's second fight as a true 147-pound welterweight after spending the majority of his pro career at junior welterweight.
A third generation Mexican-American, Guerrero will be fighting tonight in his home state of California and - with the number of Mexican-Americans and Mexicans expected to be in attendance in downtown Los Angeles - he will likely be the strong crowd favorite.
If Guerrero can maintain a high punch output vs. an often patient Garcia and his chin holds up, the opportunity is there for an upset - especially if he can neutralize Garcia's power by staying inside and pushing the fight towards a brawl. This is a winnable fight for Guerrero if he fights with his head and can somehow tap into the energy and determination he fought with in his prime just a few years ago.
Prefight Analysis
If this was a prime Robert Guerrero fighting Danny Garcia I would take Guerrero in this fight without too much thought, even at less favorable odds. Prime Guerrero was an underrated fighter who could outbox you from the outside with his jab, above average reach, and foot movement but was also adept at smothering from close range and outworking his opponents inside. Guerrero is the more experienced welterweight who overall probably still has a higher boxing IQ and slightly better boxing skills than the younger, more athletic Garcia. At his best, Guerrero fights with a relentless determination that would be tough for a typically laid-back fighter like Garcia to match over the course of 12 rounds.
But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.
Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.
Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.
In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).
But I don't see the current version of Guerrero winning this fight. Guerrero has regressed defensively and noticeably slowed in recent fights, to the point where he had to go to war to win competitive decisions vs. opponents who were wide underdogs (see the aforementioned matchup withMartinez and his June 2014 decision victory vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai). Guerrero endured quite a bit of punishment in these fights vs. lesser opponents (in addition to getting pummeled in a recent wide unanimous decision loss to Thurman); there is a good chance he will endure similar - if not greater - punishment at the hands of Garcia, a legitimate top 15-20 pound-for-pound boxer with power who is in the prime of his career.
Garcia's dangerous power combined with Guerrero's seemingly faded defensive skills should give Danny a chance to win this fight by stoppage but I think Guerrero's proven toughness (he's a resilient guy who's never come closed to being stopped in his career) and the fact that Danny will be fighting at 147 lbs for only the second time in his career makes me lean towards Garcia by decision as the best bet as I think Guerrero will find a way to survive the 12 rounds.
Another point to consider here is that as the "A-side" fighter in this matchup backed by prominent (and highly influential) boxing manager Al Haymon, there is a good chance that a close fight here will be scored for the more politically-connected Garcia (see Garcia's highly controversial wins vs. Peterson and Herrera as previous examples of questionable scoring in Garcia fights). Garcia is a young, undefeated fighter with a potentially lucrative future in major network boxing (including possible PPV fights); it is certainly in Haymon and other network boxing executives' interest to protect Garcia's marketability as an elite fighter.
In any case, I expect this to be an entertaining fight - pretty good matchup of offensive-minded boxers who won't back down - and should be a nice addition to the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry (despite both fighters being American born).
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDelete