Alvarado vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-1, 23 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (22-2, 15 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: October 19, 2013
Weight class: Light Welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: (Interim) WBO Light Welterweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado -120, Provodnikov +100 (5 Dimes, 10/19/13)
Purse: Alvarado: $1.3 million, Provodnikov: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado #3 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov #6 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox

Positives for Alvarado

• Aggressive boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who can brawl but has very solid boxing skills. Much more versatile boxer than Provodnikov.
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better boxing skills, and much better lateral movement and speed than Provodnikov.
• Alvarado is the more experienced fighter who has beaten every fighter he has faced. (Alvarado's lone loss was in October, 2012 to Brandon Rios, a loss which he avenged 5 months later.) 
• While he did lose by TKO to Rios, Alvarado has shown a good chin throughout his career. Alvarado has never been knocked down in a fight.
• Although they are fighting at the same weight, Alvarado is a naturally taller, bigger man than Provodnikov. He will likely come in to the fight weighing a bit more than Provodnikov. Alvarado also has a 3" reach advantage which he may use to stay outside and outbox Provodnikov.

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defense, while better than Provodnikov's, is far from great. This and his inclination at times to brawl (rather than box) in fights may leave him wide open to Provodnikov's vicious body and head shots. Provodnikov hits harder than Rios (who beat Alvarado by TKO), so if Alvarado doesn't protect himself it could get ugly for him. Alvarado is by no means a defensive-minded fighter so there may be at least a couple spots in the fight where he gets himself into serious trouble.
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the Rios fights? While Alvarado has shown a very good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the two brutal wars he's had over the past year with Rios. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he had with Rios. 
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. Alvarado doesn't have the skills or lateral movement ability of Timothy Bradley, a fighter Provodnikov had some success against and almost beat. The skill disparity between Alvarado and Provodnikov isn't so great that Provodnikov won't be able to make adjustments and even find spots where he may be able to outbox Alvarado.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Very good pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who hits hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. Knocked Timothy Bradley (who has an excellent chin) down for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight. Almost pulled out a victory against Bradley, who is currently ranked the #3 pound-for-pound boxer in the world. 
• Excellent chin. Has never been knocked down in his career.
• Spent some time training for the fight with Freddie Roach, a trainer known for helping boxers improve lateral movement, foot speed, and defense - advantages Alvarado currently possesses over Provodnikov.
• Very humble, likeable boxer who appears to have tremendous inner strength and will to win.
• Provodnikov's fights are always competitive. His only two losses were close, controversial decisions.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as good as Alvarado's, are underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his loss vs. Bradley. Alvarado has the speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills are underrated, but he is not as skilled or as experienced as Alvarado is as a fighter.
• Provodnikov is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing a hostile pro-Alvarado crowd and high altitude air he isn't used to.
• Other than Bradley, who has Provodnikov really fought? Provodnikov's most well-known previous opponents have been journeyman DeMarcus "Chop Chop" Corley and Mauricio Herrera, a fighter he lost to by unanimous (though very close) decision. (Alvarado beat Maricio Herrera fairly convincingly a little over a year after Herrera beat Provodnikov.)
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses.
• Provodnikov is only 5'6", a few inches shorter than Alvarado. Alvarado is also the naturally bigger man with a 3" reach advantage. 

Prefight Summary

Like Bradley after the Provodnikov fight, I believe Alvarado learned his lesson after the first Rios fight on when to brawl vs. when to box. Alvarado lost the first Rios fight by brawling but won the rematch by staying outside and using lateral movement and his skill advantage to outbox Rios. I see Alvarado fighting the same kind of fight he fought in the second Rios fight to elude Provodnikov's pressure and get the decision.

Provodnikov hits even harder than the power punching Rios and certainly poses a significant threat against a defensively mediocre Alvarado, but Provodnikov is smaller, less mobile, and doesn't have the workrate or hand speed Rios used to stay competitive vs. Alvarado. Provodnikov has more than a puncher's chance to win this fight, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him win by KO... especially considering Alvarado's natural inclination to brawl when facing tremendous pressure. But Alvarado fought smart and largely resisted his inclination to brawl in the second Rios fight... I see no reason why he wouldn't do the same against Provodnikov. Alvarado's stamina is outstanding so I don't see Provodnikov catching a tired Alvarado with a lucky punch in later rounds.

Provodnikov will have his moments but Alvarado's mobility, skill advantage, experience, and motivation to fight well in front of a raucous home crowd should carry the day. Provodnikov has a puncher's chance to win by KO, especially if Alvarado decides to engage in a brawl, but the most likely outcome of this fight is Alvarado by decision.

Prediction: Alvarado by decision