Jack vs. Groves: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) vs. George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 12, 2015
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Super Middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV (Mayweather vs. Berto undercard)
Line: Jack +115, Groves -135 (5 Dimes, 9/8/15)
Purse: Jack: $500,000, Groves: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Jack: #6 ranked super middleweight, Groves: #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Jack: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Betting Trend (5 Dimes): Groves opened in early August as the -180 favorite, with Jack as the +150 underdog. Public betting has since trended in favor of Jack - likely because he is coming off the best win of his career in winning a super middleweight title as a 4-1 underdog vs. then undefeated champion Anthony Dirrell and also probably because he is the more well-known name to the American betting public, fighting numerous times on Showtime under #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s boxing promotional firm, Mayweather Promotions. Groves is currently now only a -135 favorite, with Jack being only a +115 underdog.

Why Badou Jack will win

Jack is the current WBC World Super Middleweight champion. Jack is high in confidence after his last fight in April, a solid majority decision victory over then undefeated and WBC World Super Middleweight champion Anthony Dirrell. The victory was one of the better performances of Jack's career and is a strong sign Jack has fully recovered from his embarrassing 1st round TKO loss last year vs. journeyman Derek Edwards, who was a 14-1 underdog going into the fight. (The loss was the first and only loss of Jack's career.)

Jack has looked good in recent fights while Groves hasn't looked the same (in particular on the defensive end) since his two recent TKO losses to Carl Froch, looking less than impressive in his wins vs. relatively unknown journeymen Christopher Rebrasse and Denis Douglin.

Jack is a durable fighter while Groves has faded in the later rounds of some of his recent fights, including his two fights vs. Froch and his September 2014 fight vs. Rebrasse; Jack could conceivably outwork a tired Groves in the middle to later rounds in this fight similar to the way he outworked Dirrell in the later rounds of his most recent fight.

Jack is a solid, come-forward fighter with decent power. He pops a good jab and counters well with hooks which will be key vs. an aggressive - and at times defensively irresponsible - Groves.

Lastly, Jack is the more "politically connected" fighter in this matchup as he's promoted by Floyd Mayweather under Floyd's Mayweather Promotions banner and is arguably the best fighter promoted by Mayweather. Mayweather Promotions is promoting most of the featured fighters on the Mayweather/Berto undercard and I'd expect the close fights on the undercard to be at least slightly biased in favor fighters promoted by Mayweather. Jack also currently resides in and fights out of Las Vegas, while this is only Groves' third fight in the United States.

Why George Groves will win

Groves is the better boxer. Groves has the superior technical skills, power, hand and foot speed, overall athleticism, and is the more talented fighter. Groves is a classic boxer-puncher with notable power in both hands, knocking his opponents out at a 76% TKO/KO rate; Jack suffered a 1st round TKO loss just last year to a lesser skilled opponent with less power. Jack doesn't move particularly well and has a questionable chin; given the TKO loss to Edwards, losing by TKO/KO to Groves is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Despite being the younger fighter (by 4 years), the 27-year old Groves has a significant advantage in big fight experience over Jack, having fought top-level fighters such as Carl Froch (twice), James DeGale, and Glen Johnson. In May 2011, Groves beat current IBF Super Middleweight champion and former 2008 Olympic gold medalist DeGale by majority decision in the most impressive victory of his career. (This remains the only loss of DeGale's career.) By comparison, the only top-level fighter on Jack's resume is Anthony Dirrell.

Groves's two TKO losses to Carl Froch are the only losses of his career. Both were losses where Groves was arguably outboxing Froch before getting stopped in the later rounds. Jack doesn't have nearly the KO power Froch had so likely isn't a threat to KO Groves late like Froch did.

Prefight Analysis

Groves hasn't looked as good as expected in his recent fights since his two TKO losses to Froch, employing a more high-volume, aggressive strategy which allowed him to get countered cleanly in spots vs. much lesser fighters. A similar high punch volume strategy may not work vs. Jack - a strong, solid fighter who throws counter hooks well and possesses a good scoring jab which he may use in combination with his slight length advantage to control distance. Jack is a confident fighter riding high off the best win of his career last April vs. Dirrell. He's a more durable fighter than Groves (who has a history of waning in the later rounds) and I think there's a decent change that, in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas, he scores an upset victory by outworking Groves in the middle and later rounds the same way he outworked Dirrell after trailing on the scorecards early in that fight.

With this said, I think too many practical factors favor Groves to not to pick him to win the fight. Groves is the more talented fighter with the better skills, power, hand speed, and foot movement. He is the more experienced fighter who has fought on the big stage before (including in front of approximately 80,000 people at Wembley Stadium in his 2nd fight with Froch) vs. top-level opponents. Groves has previously defeated more accomplished opponents than Jack, namely James DeGale, a former Olympic gold medalist who has top 10-15 pound-for-pound talent. Groves, a good power puncher with a 76% TKO/KO rate, has the power to hurt a relatively flat-footed Jack early, and I think there is a reasonable chance he could win this fight by stoppage.

I think that despite Groves's recent unimpressive performances vs. lesser opponents and Jack's recent title victory momentum, Groves's clear skill and experience advantages should carry him to victory vs. Jack in the main event of the Mayweather/Berto undercard. Jack has never fought an opponent with Groves's combination of talent, skill, and power and I think this will show under the pressure of the big stage in Vegas. Groves is highly capable of winning this fight by stoppage  (likely early as opposed to late), though I think there is also a good chance he wins this fight by decision; so I think Groves simply to win at -135 is the best bet in this matchup.

Prediction: Groves to win (1 unit)

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