Cotto vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Miguel Cotto (38-4-0, 31 KOs) vs. Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: June 7, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +188, Martinez -205 (5 Dimes, 6/6/14)
Purse: Cotto: $3 million (guaranteed $7 million after TV revenues),  Martinez: $1.5 million (guaranteed more in TV revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto - #3 ranked junior middleweight, Martinez - #7 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine middleweight champion)
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Martinez: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Positives for Cotto

• Current Ring Magazine #3 ranked junior middleweight. Future hall-of-famer who has won major world titles in three different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, and light middleweight).
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in the boxing. Has good power in his left hand and throws combination punches very well. Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from the inside if needed.  
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Shane Mosley as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden the day before the National Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is 7-1 when fighting at Madison Square Garden, including 4-0 the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 6-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history.
• In terms of common opponents, Cotto has beaten Antonio Margarito - one of only two boxers who has beaten Martinez.

Negatives for Cotto

• Although six years younger than Martinez, Cotto is 33 years old and is not as good of a fighter as he was in his prime. Although he's rebounded a bit since then, Cotto has not appeared to be the elite fighter he once was since his TKO loss to Margarito in 2008.
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. The top southpaws Cotto has faced - Pacquiao, Zab Judah, and Austin Trout - landed over 50% of their combined power punches vs. Cotto. If a middleweight with power like Martinez has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be over quickly.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for the first time vs. one of the best middleweights of this generation (and probably one of the best in history) in Sergio Martinez, who has natural advantages in size, speed, reach, height, and possibly power. Cotto fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) for the majority of his career; will his power stay with him as he moves up to middleweight?   
• Although Cotto has consistently taken on very tough opponents, he has not had a win vs. a top fighter in his prime since his close split decision victory vs. Clottey in 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. 
• Cotto has questionable stamina; he has shown a tendency to tire later in fights, most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. 
• Cotto is a left-hand dominant boxer; he has very good power in his left hand but his right hand is generally not considered much of a threat in comparison. 
• Cotto has had troubles with the previous top southpaws he's faced (losses to both Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao, as well as troubles in some rounds of his win in 2007 vs. Zab Judah).

Positives for Martinez

• Current Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound fighter and top-ranked middleweight. Although he has not received the glory and publicity of other top ranked fighters, Martinez is a future hall-of-famer who will go down as one of the best middleweights of this generation. 
• At 39 years old, is still a freakishly athletic, mobile, high IQ boxer who can outbox or outpunch his opponents with a wide variety of techniques. Martinez moves around the ring as well as anyone in the sport and fights very well on both his front foot (when coming forward) and back foot (while moving backwards). 
• Martinez has lost only twice in his career - a close majority decision loss 4.5 years ago to former middleweight champion Paul Williams and a TKO loss 14 years ago to Antonio Margarito. Overall Martinez has won his last seven fights.
• Is highly adept at potshotting his opponents with the jab, while using his legs and reach advantage to stay out of range vs. counter attacks. (Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed.) 
• Martinez has highly deceptive, brutal punching power in both hands; one-punch knockout power which he has used to KO former titleholders Paul Williams, Darren Barker, and Serhiy Dzinziruk for the first time in their careers. Martinez has knocked out bigger boxers than Cotto in his career (including the aforementioned three) so certainly a possibility Martinez could stop Cotto, who has been stopped twice before in his career.     
• Martinez has excellent hand speed, which is the main reason he is one of the best combination punchers in the sport. Martinez should be able to beat Cotto to the punch consistently.
• Martinez generally outworks his opponents in terms of punches thrown; would expect Martinez to throw more punches than Cotto, especially if the fight gets to later rounds when Cotto tends to tire a bit. Martinez attacks to the body very well, which will likely further compromise Cotto's stamina as the fight goes on. 
• A former cyclist, Martinez has excellent stamina which allows him to maintain his mobility and perform well in later rounds.  
• Fight will be fought at a catchweight (159 lbs), just below the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. Martinez is the naturally bigger, stronger fighter compared to Cotto and will be fighting at a weight where he has been one of the greats of his generation; whereas Cotto will be moving up in weight to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career. 
• Martinez is an experienced boxer who has fought a solid list of former world champions including Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, Antonio Margarito, Darren Barker, Serhiy Dzinziruk, and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, compiling a record of 5-1-1 vs. these opponents.
• Martinez will be the heavier, taller, longer, faster, and quicker fighter and arguably more powerful puncher coming into the fight vs. Cotto. (These attributes will be difficult for Cotto to overcome.)
• Martinez is a determined fighter coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Despite being a current middleweight champion and pound-for-pound one of the best boxers in the sport, he feels disrespected by being referred to as the "B" side fighter in the upcoming match vs. the "A" side Cotto.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez has been (and still is) one of the best boxers in the world but is 39 years old and well past his prime. It is inevitable that Martinez's age will catch-up with him; will this be the fight where Martinez shows his age?
• Martinez has sustained a variety of injuries during fights over the past couple of years; Martinez tore ligaments in his right knee and broke his left hand in his fight vs. Julio Cesar Chavez in September 2012 and then re-injured the right knee and broke his left hand again in his most recent fight vs. Martin Murray. (Both knee injuries required surgery.) Martinez also suffered a left shoulder injury in the fight vs. Murray. Given his age and the fact that he relies on mobility and power punching to box, there is a decent possibility Martinez suffers another injury in the fight vs. Cotto. Will another injury affect the outcome of the fight? How well will Martinez's right knee and left hand hold up vs. Cotto, who will likely try to pressure Sergio and make the fight physical?
• Due to his aforementioned injury problems, Martinez has been relatively inactive over the past couple of years. Martinez hasn't fought in over a year (April 2013) and has only fought twice in the past two years. Ring rust may be an issue; how good will a 39-year old Martinez look after a layoff of over a year?  
• Martinez has shown vulnerability in recent fights. Despite fighting in his home country vs. a huge underdog, Martinez looked unimpressive in a close decision victory vs. Martin Murray, even getting knocked down in the 8th round. Martinez has been knocked down in each of his past three fights (vs. Murray, Chavez Jr., and Dzinziruk) so is certainly susceptible to being knocked down vs. a power puncher like Cotto.
• Martinez is outstanding at using his legs and reach to elude his opponents' attacks but defensively he's a fundamentally flawed fighter. Martinez fights with his hands down and chin exposed which leaves him open to clean punches when his opponents catch up to him. Opponents land nearly 40% of power punches vs. Martinez, one of the highest percentages amongst CompuBox-tracked boxers. This may be a problem vs. an offensively efficient fighter like Cotto.

Prefight Summary

 Unless Martinez's age has finally caught up to him or he is still affected by his recurring hand and knee injuries, I think this will be an easy fight for Martinez. The bottom line with this fight is Martinez is naturally much bigger than Cotto - who will be fighting at middleweight for the first time - and is either slightly better or much better than Cotto at just about every other aspect of boxing.

Cotto has had problems in the past vs. top-level southpaws with good speed (see Manny Pacquiao, Austin Trout, and stretches of the Zab Judah fight), allowing them combined to land over 50% of their power punches. I expect Cotto's defensive flaws to be magnified vs. a bigger boxer in Martinez, who also has very good hand speed and throws some of the best combinations in boxing.

Cotto may have a game plan to pressure Martinez and beat him on the inside with a body attack. I don't see Cotto having sustained success with this game plan vs. a bigger, stronger guy like Martinez. If Cotto tries to pressure Martinez, I expect Sergio's crisp counterpunching to eventually wear Cotto down in the mid to late rounds. Martinez is a determined fighter who is not only more skilled than Cotto, but is fighting with a chip on his shoulder due to feeling disrespected in the prefight negotiations so I don't see Martinez letting this fight get away from him. Cotto is an aggressive boxer who packs a powerful punch, but I don't see his power at middleweight comparing to true middleweight power such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Martin Murray, or Matthew Macklin, who were all able to knockdown Martinez in the later rounds of recent fights, but were unable to finish him.

Again, the big concern I have in this fight is whether or not Martinez finally shows his age and whether or not the injuries that have affected him in his last two fights recur again. If they do, this fight is certainly up in the air and Cotto could get the stoppage. But if Martinez stays healthy throughout the fight I fully expect the bigger, more skilled Martinez to beat Cotto by TKO/KO, if not a wide unanimous decision. A prime Miguel Cotto I would give a chance in this fight, not the slowed down 33-year old version we'll be seeing on Saturday.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO/KO or Decision

Froch vs. Groves: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs) vs. George Groves (19-1-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: May 31, 2014
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Middleweight title, WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Froch -165, Groves +155 (5 Dimes, 5/30/14)
Purse: Froch: ,  Groves:
Ring Magazine Rankings: Froch - #10 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked super middleweight), Groves - #5 ranked super middleweight
Style: Froch: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Positives for Froch

• Current Ring Magazine #10 pound-for-pound fighter.Tough, strong-willed boxer with one of the elite chins in the sport. Current IBF and WBA super middleweight champion.
• Highly experienced fighter. Over the past 4.5 years, has faced as tough competition as anyone in boxing, and has an impressive record of 11-2 in that span, losing only to undefeated current #2 pound-for-pound fighter Andre Ward and former 4-time super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler (in Kessler's home country of Denmark). Those two losses are the only losses of Froch's career.
• Aggressive boxer with a very good jab. Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of number of jabs thrown and landed.
• Powerful, high-volume boxer with grade A stamina. Nearly always outworks his opponent (which often helps on points in close fights). 
• Highly confident boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Has been knocked down twice in his career (including his last fight vs. Groves), but recuperated in both fights to win in the later rounds by TKO.Has shown a tendency to come on in later rounds after slow starts.
• Outstanding chin. Has been knocked down twice but has never been stopped (or been in real danger of being stopped) in his career. 

Negatives for Froch

• Froch has a tremendous chin and fights with great heart, but his boxing skills and athleticism are far from top-level; in major fights Froch is usually the inferior fighter in terms of skill.
• Though he ultimately won by TKO, Froch was decisively outboxed by Groves in their previous fight last November. Groves landed the left jab and overhand right with ease vs. Froch in the previous fight (particularly in the early rounds); unless Froch makes significant adjustments defensively, Groves will likely have similar success outboxing Froch in the upcoming fight.
• Froch lacks solid hand and foot speed; Groves will likely beat him to the punch as he did in the previous fight. Froch's best weapon is his jab, a punch he had trouble landing vs. the quicker Groves.
• Defensively, Froch is a highly flawed fighter with subpar footwork and head movement. Per CompuBox stats, Froch's opponents land 41% of power punches vs. Froch, 5th-worst among CompuBox-tracked boxers. 
• Froch is 36 years old entering a fight vs. a guy 10 years his junior who is arguably just entering the prime of his career.

Positives for Groves

• Former Commonwealth and British super middleweight titleholder. Slick, aggressive boxer with top-level technical skills. Has good hand/foot speed and very good punching power in both hands. 
• Has lost only once in his career, although the loss was by 9th-round TKO to Froch. Despite losing, Groves did clearly outbox Froch throughout the majority of the nine rounds and was winning the fight on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage. 
• This will be Groves' 2nd fight vs. Froch. Generally, rematches favor the more technically skilled fighter, who is more apt to make the adjustments necessary to win the fight. Groves not only has the advantage in skill vs. Froch, he has better hand/foot speed and arguably even has a more powerful punch than Froch. In the last fight vs. Froch, Groves consistently beat Froch to the punch, landing his left jab and overhand right seemingly at will during some stretches of the fight.
• Groves is solid defensively. Uses his foot speed to stay out of his opponent's range when he needs to. Did lose by TKO in his last fight vs. Froch but the stoppage was highly questionable. Groves has never been knocked down in his career.
• Groves is 26 years old (10 years younger than Froch) and entering the prime of his career. Although Groves lacks Froch's experience, he has fought very solid competition such as James DeGale and Glen Johnson, beating both by decision. 

Negatives for Groves

• Groves' chin is questionable after the TKO in his last fight vs. Froch. Although the stoppage was questionable, Froch did land some massive power punches which had Groves in trouble. If Froch can stop Groves once, he can certainly do it again. 
• Groves has shown stamina issues in previous fights (including the last fight vs. Froch) whereas Froch's punches are as powerful in later rounds as they are in the early stages of fights. If Groves again tires late in the fight, another late round stoppage is possible.
• In prefight appearances, Groves appears confident to the point of perhaps being overconfident. Groves has indicated he will stand in and trade in an attempt to win by knockout, which may prove to be the wrong strategy vs. a power puncher such as Froch.
• Compared to Froch, Groves is relatively inexperienced. Froch's experience and will-to-win may be the difference if the fight is close. 

Prefight Summary

This one is tough to predict. Potential fight-of-the-year candidate that could go either way. On the one hand you have George Groves, clearly the technically superior, faster boxer, who should have success outboxing Froch through a good portion of this fight (as he did in the previous fight). If Groves stays patient, uses his speed advantage to control distance, keeping this a pure boxing match (as opposed to a brawl), he will likely win a comfortable decision, if not get the TKO/KO at some point during the fight. Groves looked impressive in outboxing Froch throughout most of their first fight; he (and most boxing fans) felt the early stoppage in the previous fight was unfair and he will definitely be fighting with a chip on his shoulder in the rematch.

On the other hand you have Carl Froch, the veteran warrior with a granite chin and unquestionable heart. Despite Groves dominating much of the first fight and landing numerous clean power punches, Froch still found a way to win via TKO. Although the 9th round stoppage was highly controversial, Froch did clearly have Groves in trouble in that round and the fight appeared to be turning in Froch's favor with Groves tiring. If the fight hadn't been stopped at that point, it highly possible Froch would've earned a legitimate stoppage later in the fight or won on the scorecards if he controlled the last three rounds.

This matchup is nothing new for Froch; Froch has fought numerous top-level fighters who were considered technically superior with a speed advantage, and has beaten most, including Groves in their first fight.

I think this matchup will come down to Groves and the approach he takes in the fight. If Groves chooses to stay within distance of Froch and trade punches in the hopes of winning by TKO/KO (as he has indicated he may do in pre-fight appearances), I think Froch's chin will be able to withstand Grove's barrage and see the most likely scenario being Froch by mid/late round stoppage as Groves tires. But if Groves keeps his distance and boxes Froch (as he did in his fight vs. DeGale and as he did through much of the first fight with Froch), I believe Groves' skill and speed advantages should result in a clear decision in his favor.

 Ultimately, I think Groves will choose to fight a smart fight and outbox Froch from the outside, using his hand speed to beat Froch to the punch and using his foot speed to avoid Froch's power from close range. Froch has always been slow-footed and flawed defensively so I expect Groves will be able to land the same quality of punches he landed in the previous fight. Over the course of 12 rounds, Froch could certainly catch up to Groves at some point and end the fight early again with a heavy punch but I think Groves will be more cautious this time around.

In terms of betting, I favor Groves only slightly; this is a 55/45 fight that could go either way. But with Groves being a +155 underdog in a coin-flip matchup, my money will definitely be on Groves, who at the end of the day is the better boxer.    

Prediction: Groves by decision 

Mayweather vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (45-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 3, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -925, Maidana +725 (5 Dimes, 5/2/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Maidana - #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (45-0 record). 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including Maidana, Mayweather's last 13 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and does not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped much). Will this be the fight where Mayweather's age finally catches up to him?
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds.)
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches.
• Highly confident boxer coming off of the best fight of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last four fights. (Maidana is 4-0 under Robert Garcia.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 
• The crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will likely be pro-Maidana, especially if he has any kind of success within the first few rounds.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today; is at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was in the past two years involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will have success vs. the #1 boxer in the sport. On the surface, it would appear Maidana's only chance to win the fight will be if he can land a lucky power punch to KO Mayweather.
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Throwing power punches from a stationary position will be extremely difficult to do vs. Mayweather.
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at.

Prefight Summary

This should end up being an easy fight for Mayweather. Maidana, one of the hardest punchers in the sport, certainly has a puncher's chance (as he does in every fight), especially if he can get Mayweather pinned to a corner of the ring - a position Mayweather has willingly and comfortably fought from in previous fights. If Maidana can land power punches against Mayweather with Mayweather pinned to the corner of the ring, there's a reasonable chance Maidana *could* overwhelm Mayweather and pull off a shocking TKO/KO.

 But other than a lucky punch, this is Maidana's only chance to win the fight. In his last fight, Maidana was able to overwhelm a flat-footed Adrien Broner who stood in front of him the whole fight. Mayweather is a much more mobile fighter on his feet, capable of countering and potshotting while on the move, a style Maidana has had tremendous difficulty with in the past (most notably his fight with Devon Alexander where he arguably lost every round of a 10-round fight). Maidana does not have the foot speed or the technical skills to outbox Mayweather over the course of 12 rounds.

The thing to note when analyzing this fight is that there's a *big* difference between throwing punches well on the move vs. throwing punches well from a stationary position. Maidana has proven himself to be one of the hardest punchers in the sport when throwing punches vs. less mobile fighters standing right in front of him. For this fight vs. Mayweather, I expect Maidana will be unable to setup and throw the same quality of punches vs. arguably the most elusive fighter in the sport.

I anticipate Floyd being able to figure out Maidana in the early rounds and unmercilessly counterpunching the defensively inept Argentinian over the middle and later rounds for a wide unanimous decision victory. I expect Floyd to be so dominant that I actually wouldn't be surprised if he stops Maidana (who has never been knocked down or stopped in his career)  by TKO/KO in the later rounds. But the pick here is Floyd by easy unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

Pacquiao vs. Bradley II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Timothy Bradley (31-0-0-1, 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 12, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -240, Bradley +220 (5 Dimes, 4/12/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $20 million, Bradley: $6 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao #7 ranked pound-for-pound (#3 ranked welterweight), Bradley #3 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight).
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Bradley: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #7 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. 
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December, 2012 fights vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Quick fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters like Bradley to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was an effective punch for him in the previous fight vs. Bradley. 
• By most accounts, Pacquiao won his first fight with Bradley convincingly. (Many gave Pacquiao as many as 10 or 11 rounds of the fight.) Pacquiao outlanded Bradley by over 100 punches in the previous fight (outlanding Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds) and landed at a much higher percentage even before seemingly easing up in the later rounds. Pacquiao has stated that he intends to be more aggressive vs. Bradley than in his previous fights (which he can afford to do because Bradley has limited power); if Pacquiao can replicate or surpass the success he had landing punches vs. Bradley with his increased aggression he will likely win this rematch convincingly.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? Vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won the first fight vs. Bradley convincingly. In his next fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed both Bradley and Marquez despite taking losses in both fights.
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.
• Crowd at the MGM Grand will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. This and the controversy from the previous fight vs. Bradley could influence the judges' scoring in favor of Pacquiao.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last three fights (including a disputed decision vs. the man he will be fighting tonight) and hasn't scored a KO victory in 4.5 years (7 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley but that fight was almost two years ago (June, 2012). Since then, Pacquiao has slipped while Bradley has improved and gained valuable experience in earning decisions vs. Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in the prime of his career and coming off of arguably the best performance of his career in his split decision vs. Marquez.
• While most feel Pacquiao won his first fight vs. Bradley, many also feel Bradley made adjustments and improved over the second half of the fight. Bradley largely knows what to expect out of Pacquiao now; will Bradley's adjustments carry over in the fight tonight and allow him to earn a clearer decision?
• Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed but Bradley has comparable hand speed and is arguably more mobile on his feet than Manny. 
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. There were spots in the first fight where Bradley used his jab effectively to back Pacquiao up in have him in a position where he couldn't fight as effectively. If Bradley is more effective with his jab and can get Pacquiao fighting off his back foot again, the fight will be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive wizard. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. 
• Pacquiao significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines and has a baby boy due at the end of the month. Is his heart still really in boxing? 

Positives for Bradley

• Bradley is an undefeated fighter who has always found a way to win. Displayed tremendous heart and determination in pulling out recent victories vs. Manny Pacquiao, Ruslan Provodnikov, and Juan Manuel Marquez. Currently ranked the #3 fighter pound-for-pound in the sport, but is still hungry and feels he has something to prove after the controversy surrounding his first fight vs. Pacquiao.  
• Although highly controversial, Bradley already beat Pacquiao in June 2012. Since then, Bradley has improved as a fighter, gaining experience with wins vs. heavy puncher Provodnikov and HOF counter puncher Marquez, while Pacquiao has arguably slipped in recent years. Pacquiao is 35 and a few years past his prime, while Bradley is currently in his prime and highly confident after his three recent high-profile victories.
• Bradley won his last fight vs. Pacquiao despite injuring both of his feet early in the fight (fracturing his left foot in the 2nd round and twisting his right ankle in the 4th per Bradley). One would expect an injury-free Bradley to look more impressive in the rematch.
• Technically savvy boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's tendencies during fights. Made adjustments and improved over the 2nd half of the first Pacquiao fight. Bradley is familiar with Pacquiao's tendencies after the first fight so one can expect there will be at least some improvements in the rematch vs. Pacquiao, who is not as adept at making adjustments to his opponents. 
• Bradley is an elusive fighter with catlike quickness in both his hands and feet. Pacquiao often relies on his hand and foot speed advantages to win fights but at this point in their careers, Bradley arguably has better foot speed and, while he doesn't have the power, has hand speed comparable to Pacquiao's.
• High volume puncher. In their first fight Bradley threw more punches than Pacquiao, who is known for being an aggressive, high-volume puncher. Unlike Pacquiao, however, Bradley's defense is usually good enough that he doesn't leave himself open to a lot of counterpunching (his recent fight vs. Provodnikov being an exception).
• Incredible chin, as shown in his March 2013 fight vs. Provodnikov. Never been KO'ed and his knockdown in the 12th round vs. Provodnikov was the first time he's been knocked down in his career. 
• Not overly powerful (only 12 KOs in his career and 1 KO in past 7 years), but has enough power to keep his opponents honest. Almost knocked Marquez down late in the 12th round of his last fight.
• Current WBO welterweight title holder. Is extremely motivated to retain title and silence doubters after the highly controversial Pacquiao decision last year.

Negatives for Bradley

• Most feel Bradley lost his first fight vs. Pacquiao by a wide margin. If the rematch resembles the first fight (in which Bradley did not hurt Pacquiao and landed significantly less punches), Pacquiao will likely win an easy decision.
• Bradley has mediocre to below average punching power, which should allow Pacquiao to take more chances and be more aggressive in the fight. Bradley has stated publicly that he will take chances and go for the KO vs. Pacquiao but fighting a more aggressive style in this fight may increase the likelihood he gets hurt or knocked out. 
• Bradley is an elusive, defensively gifted fighter but Pacquiao has clear hand speed and power advantages that Bradley won't be able to evade for the full 12 rounds, especially since Pacquiao has the foot speed to catch up to Bradley.
• The MGM Grand crowd will be pro-Pacquiao, and there is a sentiment among many in boxing that Pacquiao got robbed in the first fight, so judges may be more inclined to score close rounds in Pacquiao's favor.

Summary

Tough fight to predict. In my opinion, this is a close 55/45 fight that could go either way, but I'd slightly favor Manny Pacquiao. On the one hand Pacquiao, despite losing the last fight vs. Bradley, did statistically dominate the first fight. Pacquiao outlanded Bradley in 10 out of 12 rounds, landed almost 100 more punches, landed the cleaner, more powerful punches, and landed at a much higher percentage than Bradley did. Most felt Manny won the first fight convincingly. Manny will make it a point to be more aggressive in this rematch and, despite some slippage at 35 years old, still has the clear hand speed and power advantage to dominate Bradley over 12 rounds. Bradley is an elusive tactician with great counter punching abilities but does not have the power (that Marquez had in his fights with Pacquiao) to make Manny think twice about coming forward and staying aggressive. Pacquiao is determined to redeem himself from the controversial split decision loss and set-up a possible future opportunity to avenge his loss vs. Marquez.

On the other hand, it's been almost two years since Pacquiao/Bradley I. Since then Pacquiao has suffered a KO loss and had what many felt was an unimpressive victory vs. Brandon Rios, while Bradley won a slugfest with Ruslan Provodnikov (a fight which was named the 2013 Fight of the Year by nearly every boxing outlet) and is coming off arguably the best fight of his career in outboxing Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley is in his prime, confident, and fighting as well as he's ever fought in his career while Pacquiao is aging and is not quite the fighter he was a few years ago. Bradley claims he injured both feet early in the last fight so one would expect he should look more impressive in the rematch. Bradley also come on late in the last fight and has a better idea of what to expect in this fight, so one would also expect he'll have adjustments to neutralize Pacquiao's speed and power advantages. As determined as Pacquiao will be to avenge his loss, Bradley will likely be even more determined to redeem and prove himself as most felt he lost the fight and robbed Pacquiao of a clear decision.

There are solid reasons why either fighter could win but I think the key to this fight, like the last fight, is that Pacquiao at the end of the day still has the clear hand speed and power advantage, strengths Bradley won't be able to mitigate for the full 12 rounds with foot speed (because Manny is still fast enough to catch him) or counter punching (because Bradley doesn't have the power to keep Manny honest). Bradley is by nature a high volume fighter and will for some stretches of the fight be willing to stand in and exchange with Pacquiao. Bradley clearly has a chip on his shoulder and still feels he has something to prove so I see him fighting in this fight (at least in stretches) trying to exchange punches like he did vs. Provodnikov rather than jabbing and using movement like he did vs. Marquez. Fighting like he fought vs. Provodnikov will likely be to Bradley's detriment as it will allow Pacquiao to better exploit his speed and power advantages.  

With this said, Pacquiao is not quite as strong or as fast as he was a couple of years ago. If Bradley can make effective use of the jab (which he did brilliantly vs. Marquez and had some success with vs. Pacquiao) to keep Pacquiao on his back foot and use his feet to either stay out of range (as he did in the Marquez fight) or crowd Pacquiao on the inside (where Pacquiao's power is not as effective), Bradley may be able to outwork Pacquiao and pull off the decision. The course of this fight depends largely on 1) how Bradley approaches this fight and how he plans to mitigate Pacquiao's aggressiveness and 2) how much power and speed Pacquiao truly has left in the tank.

Not knowing for sure how Bradley will approach this fight (i.e., whether he chooses to exchange or chooses to jab and stay mobile), I think Pacquiao's clear speed and power advantages get him the victory in this matchup a slight majority of the time (between say 55-60% of the time). I believe Pacquiao will probably win this fight. However, I do believe with his technical savvy and high volume workrate that Bradley is enough of a live underdog to make a +220 wager on Bradley the best bet to make.

Prediction: Pacquiao by decision

Best Bet: Bradley to win (+220)

Canelo vs. Angulo: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-1-1, 30 KOs) vs. Alfredo "El Perro" Angulo (22-3, 18 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Middleweight (154 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Alvarez -600, Angulo +500 (5 Dimes, 3/8/14)
Purse: Alvarez: $1,250,000, Angulo: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked light middleweight),
Angulo - Not ranked
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Angulo: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Canelo

• At only 23 years old, is Ring Magazine #9 ranked  pound-for-pound boxer (#1 ranked light heavyweight). Canelo is one of the best boxer-punchers in the sport; technically savvy boxer with excellent punching power in both hands. 
• Patient, but very accurate puncher who throws combinations very well. Best punches are left hook and lead right hand. Also a solid body puncher who knows how to attack the body.
• Extremely efficient puncher. Per CompuBox stats, lands 50% of power punches thrown (#1 amongst all tracked fighters) and 39% of overall punches thrown (#3 amongst all tracked fighters behind Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.).
• Poised fighter who is very mature for his age. Is still improving despite already being one of the top boxers in the sport.
• Only loss of career was to undefeated and current #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world Floyd Mayweather. Canelo has beaten solid fighters such as current IBF lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (twice), Austin Trout, future hall-of-famer Shane Mosely, and Kermit Cintron. 
• Appears to have a solid chin; has never been knocked down in his career despite having fought larger fighters than Angulo.
• Has defensive flaws but Canelo's defense (in particular his head movement) has noticeably improved over his last few fights.
• Athletic boxer who will have hand speed and overall boxing skill advantage vs. Angulo. Has problems fighting boxers with good movement (like Floyd Mayweather), but this won't be an issue vs. Angulo, who will aim to put pressure on Canelo so will always be right in front of him.
• Canelo is an extremely popular fighter amongst Mexicans and Mexican-Americans; the overwhelming majority of fans in the MGM Grand Arena will be pro-Canelo.

Negatives for Canelo

• Though efficient, Canelo is relatively low-volume puncher who often has stretches of inactivity during fights (i.e., sometimes takes significant portions of rounds off). Due to low volume is prone to getting outworked. 
• Has shown stamina issues in previous fights. Canelo's normal walk-around weight is 20+ lbs more than his fighting weight of 154 lbs; draining 20+ pounds to make weight prior to fights appears to affect his stamina during fights, as evidenced by his inactivity during certain portions of fights. 
• How good is Canelo's chin really? Canelo has never been knocked down in his career, but - while he's fought boxers with better boxing skills - he's never fought a high-pressure fighter who hits as hard and as often as Angulo. Canelo's chin and stamina will be tested like never before in this fight.
• His defense has improved over his last few fights but Canelo is by no means a defensive wizard. Canelo is slow-footed and often leaves himself open to clean counters after throwing punches. There will likely be portions of the fight where Angulo will have success landing punches.  
• Slow-starter who has at times given away the first one or two rounds of fights while adjusting to his opponent.

Positives for Angulo

• One of the best high-pressure, high-volume fighters in the sport. Very aggressive boxer who is adept at cutting off the ring and wearing his opponents down on the inside over the course of the fight. Has had success applying pressure against technically skilled fighters with good movement (e.g., Erislandy Lara) so should have at least some success applying pressure to the more slow-footed Canelo.
• Punches as hard as anyone Canelo has ever fought. 72% KO percentage and has knocked down the likes of defensive technician Erislandy Lara (twice; first two knockdowns of Lara's career) and James Kirkland. Has a knack for jumping on this opponents early (see the Lara and Kirkland fights) which may serve him well vs. a slow-starting fighter like Canelo.
• Possesses excellent stamina. Never gets tired and seems as adept at cutting off the ring and throwing a high volume of punches in later rounds as he is in early rounds.
• Has great determination and a very good chin. Good at continuing to apply pressure and throwing hard punches even as he is getting hit.
• Has only fought 25 professional fights but has fought very competitively vs. a wide array of fighting styles; should be ready for anything Canelo throws at him. 
• Has a very good trainer in Virgil Hunter, who also trains #2 pound-for-pound boxer Andre Ward, Amir Khan, and Andre Berto. Sparring vs. other top-level boxers should serve well in preparing for Canelo.

Negatives for Angulo

• Angulo is a B-level boxer who has never beaten a fighter of Canelo's caliber. (Angulo's best wins were against an then-undefeated Harry Joe Yorgey and Gabriel Rosado, both relatively unknown fighters to mainstream boxing fans.) Angulo lost by TKO to his two most notable opponents, Erislandy Lara and James Kirkland.
• Angulo is a very good pressure fighter but will be outclassed by Canelo in terms of overall boxing skill and hand speed. Canelo's punches will likely land before Angulo's, which may compromise Angulo's high-pressure strategy. 
• Suffered severe swelling and an orbital fracture injury to his left eye in his last fight, a TKO loss vs. Erislandy Lara. There is a good chance the eye could swell again in later rounds vs. Canelo, one of the hardest and most accurate punchers in the sport. (Could see a repeat of Cotto-Margarito II, where Margarito lost by TKO vs. Cotto due swelling of his right eye, to which suffered an orbital fracture in his previous fight vs. Manny Pacquiao.) 
• Poor defensive fighter. Per CompuBox stats, Angulo's opponents land 42% of their power punches, 3rd worst amongst tracked fighters. Angulo's highly aggressive style will very frequently leave him open to counter punching. Angulo is the type of fighter who will stay in front of his opponent and allow himself to get hit so that he can continue to apply pressure and hopefully wear his opponent down in later rounds. But will he be able to withstand the accurate, hard-punching (albeit low-volume) attack Canelo will provide over 12 rounds? 

Prefight Summary

Canelo is a young, but very poised and experienced fighter who has shown improvement (particularly with his defense) with each fight. In terms of boxing skill, this fight is a mismatch. Canelo is rated one of the best boxers pound-for-pound in the sport, and is a skilled, efficient power puncher fighting a B-level boxer who statistically is one of the worst television fighters in the sport in terms of allowing his opponents to land power punches. At the end of the day, Angulo is a mediocre talent in his early 30s who has never beaten a boxer of Canelo's caliber. Canelo has had problems in the past vs. boxers who move around the ring well so it seems Angulo, a highly aggressive fighter who will stand in front of Canelo the entire fight and is willing to trade punches, is a great matchup for him.

With this said, it would be foolish to overlook Angulo's chances to win the fight. Angulo is a determined pressure fighter who packs a powerful punch and generally doesn't tire, even well into the later rounds. In his last fight, Angulo fought a highly competitive fight vs. Erislandy Lara (a fighter many consider to be better than Canelo) and was arguably winning the fight prior to the stoppage due to the swelling in Angulo's left eye. In that fight, Angulo was able to successfully pressure Lara, an elite technician with good footwork, so I'd anticipate he'll have at least some success applying pressure to the slower-footed, arguably less savvy Canelo. Canelo is an experienced fighter, but has never fought a boxer who applies as much pressure and packs as much of a punch as Angulo. There is a chance here  that Angulo outworks the relatively low-volume, stamina-deficient Canelo and steals a victory by decision or KO. (Though a decision vs. the highly popular Canelo in Vegas strikes me as nearly impossible unless Angulo very decisively outboxes Alvarez.)

However, I think Angulo's defensive flaws and hand speed disadvantages will be his downfall. In terms of accuracy and power, Canelo is the best puncher Angulo has ever fought (Kirkland was perhaps more powerful but not as accurate); especially with the severe eye injury in his last fight, I doubt Angulo will be able to withstand Canelo's effective power punching for 12 full rounds without getting stopped. The question will be whether or not Angulo can get inside on Canelo and stop him first; I think Canelo's hand speed advantage and savvy will largely mitigate Angulo's attack en route to a  TKO/KO victory (or wide unanimous decision if Canelo can't get the KO).

My primary bet will be Canelo by TKO/KO but think there is value in hedging with a small amount on Angulo by TKO/KO or Angulo to win.

Prediction: Canelo by TKO/KO 

Pascal vs. Bute: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Jean Pascal (28-2-1, 17 KOs) vs. Lucian Bute (31-1, 24 KOs)
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: January 18, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: NABF Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Pascal -165, Bute +155 (5 Dimes, 1/18/14)
Purse: Pascal: $2 million, Bute: $2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pascal - #10 ranked light heavyweight, Bute - #3 ranked super middleweight
Style: Pascal: Orthodox, Bute: Southpaw

Positives for Pascal

• Ring Magazine #10 light heavyweight. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Tremendous KO power in both hands. Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%). 
• Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against.
• Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantage vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Bute.
• Experienced boxer who has fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. Pascal beat Dawson who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw technician, by technical decision in 2010. 
• Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a current major title holder and future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011). 
• Solid chin; has never been knocked down or in danger of getting stopped in his career.
• Fast starter who generally gets out to early leads in fights.  

Negatives for Pascal

• Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). The injuries may persist and get worse as he gets older, possibly affecting the outcome of this fight. 
• Due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Only fought once in 2013 and twice in the past 31 months. 
• Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
• Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
• Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).

Positives for Bute

• Ring Magazine #3 super middleweight. Solid technical boxer with great punching power. Has better technical boxing skills than Jean Pascal. 
• Has long been considered one of the top super middleweights in the world. Only loss was to future hall-of-famer and current WBA and IBF super middleweight champion Carl Froch in Froch's hometown of Nottingham, England. Bute has never lost a pro fight in Canada.
• Well-rounded fighter with good hand speed. Strengths are his left uppercut and body punching. 
• Has decisively beaten other solid fighters such as Glen Johnson, Edison Miranda, and Librado Andrade.
• Unlike Pascal, Bute has solid stamina; his punching power tends to last though later rounds. 

Negatives for Bute

• Highly possible Bute's confidence is shaken since his 5th round TKO loss vs. Froch in 2012. Bute looked unimpressive in his last fight vs. Denis Grachev (won close decision vs. Grachev, who was fighting in only his 14th pro fight).
• Has been inactive due to an injury to his left hand; Bute didn't fight in 2013 and has only fought once since his TKO loss to Froch in May, 2012.
• Bute has mediocre defensive skills and a shaky chin. Like Pascal fights with his hands down at times, leaving him open to counterpunches.  Bute has been knocked down in previous fights (most notably in his loss to Carl Froch) and in this fight will be fighting a boxer with even greater punching power than Froch. 
• Bute is relatively inexperienced at light heavyweight; this fight vs. Pascal (who has fought his last 8 fights at light heavyweight) will be only the second fight he's fought at this weight.. 
• Other than Froch, Bute has not fought the level of talent Pascal has. Bute has never beaten a fighter of Pascal's caliber and will be fighting the strongest puncher he's ever fought on a questionable chin after the TKO loss to Froch and the unimpressive, close victory over Denis Grachev in his most recent fights. 

Prefight Summary

Lucian Bute has long been one of the top super middleweights in the world but is now fighting in only his second fight at light heavyweight vs. Jean Pascal, a true light heavyweight with true light heavyweight punching power and solid boxing skills. Although Bute has long been considered a top-level boxer, he has been relatively untested in his career with his best wins coming vs. the likes of low B-level fighters such as Glen Johnson and Librado Andrade. The one time Bute fought an opponent of Pascal's caliber in terms of punching power and skill (vs. Carl Froch in 2012) he suffered a devastating, early round TKO which appears to have stymied his career and shaken his confidence.

Pascal is not the top-level, possible future hall-of-fame boxer Froch is but Pascal is very experienced at light heavyweight and fought competitively vs. opponents much tougher than Bute. In 2010, Pascal decisively beat an undefeated, top 10 pound-for-pound boxer in Chad Dawson (who, like Bute, is a slick southpaw with solid technical skills) and in more recent years was in two close, competitive fights with Bernard Hopkins, one of the most skilled technicians in the history of the sport (in 2011 earned a draw vs. Hopkins after scoring two knockdowns and being way ahead early in the fight and in 2012 suffered a close unanimous decision loss).

Both Hopkins and Dawson have strong defensive skills, so for the most part were able to stay out of danger  vs. Pascal. Bute does not have the defensive skill nor the foot speed to elude Pascal's ambush style and tremendous punching power for the entire fight. I anticipate Pascal will be able to close in on Bute some time in one of the early rounds and use his quickness and power advantage to overwhelm him en route to an early or mid-round TKO/KO or comfortable decision if he is unable to get the KO.

My two main concerns with this prediction are 1) Pascal's stamina issues and 2) Pascal's history of shoulder troubles. If Pascal gets tired in the middle rounds or if one of his old shoulder injuries recur, I would not be surprised if Bute, who has the superior technical boxing skills and has good punching power in his own right, gains confidence and outboxes Pascal in the later rounds of the fight to eke out a close decision.

But on the whole I don't see Bute's mediocre defense and shaky chin being able to withstand Pascal's speed and power advantages. Bute will try to keep his distance and outbox Pascal from the outside but I expect Pascal to close and catch up to him eventually for the stoppage.

Prediction: Pascal by TKO/KO 

Broner vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Adrien Broner (27-0-0, 22 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (34-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Date: December 14, 2013
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner -440, Maidana +350 (5 Dimes, 12/14/13)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Adrien Broner - #9 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked lightweight, #6 ranked welterweight), Maidana - unranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox

Positives for Broner

• Ring Magazine #9 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport. Undefeated fighter with excellent agility, hand speed, and foot speed. Highly talented boxer who, at 24 years old, is already a 3-division world champion. Currently in the prime of his career.
• Slick, versatile technician who is adept at both counter punching and being aggressive, cutting off the ring vs. his opponents. 
• Low-volume at times but very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands. (22 of his 27 wins have come by KO.)
• One of the best defensive fighters in boxing. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Almost Floyd Mayweather-like in his ability to stay in the pocket and use his defensive skills to make his opponents miss. Slips and rolls punches very well. Difficult fighter to hit cleanly.  
• High IQ boxer who is good at making technical adjustments in the ring over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 

Negatives for Broner

• Relatively untested. Paulie Malignaggi and Daniel Ponce de Leon have been his only tough opponents to date. 
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his last two fights vs. Malignaggi and Gavin Rees, who both won the first two rounds of their fights vs. Broner.)
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's lack of mobility makes it easier for his opponents to land scoring punches against him, even if the punches aren't landing cleanly. 
• Fighting at welterweight for only the 2nd time in his career after moving up two weight classes. Broner's 1st welterweight fight (vs. Paulie Malignaggi last June) seemed to indicate the KO power he had at lightweight may not fully carry over to the welterweight division. 

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher puncher with KO power in both hands. (31 of his 34 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. 
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut and left hook.
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia is the reigning BWAA Trainer of the Year and has been voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for the past two years.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last three fights. Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting the #9 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; is at a clear disadvantage in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will defeat an A-level fighter such as Broner. Maidana has also never held a major world title. 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. 
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to counter punches.  
• Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.)

Prefight Summary

I anticipate this actually being an easy fight for Broner, due to his defensive prowess and the significant skill, talent, and speed advantages he has over Maidana. Broner may take the first couple of rounds to adjust to Maidana's high-volume aggressiveness, but I expect him to figure Maidana out and dominate the fight after that. With his underrated power, Broner even has a decent chance to win this fight by TKO/KO, but I think Maidana's grit and chin will prevent that. (Maidana has never come close to being stopped in his career.) I also question whether the power Broner showed at lightweight (135 lbs.) fully stayed with him after he moved up two weight classes to welterweight (147 lbs); he didn't come close to knocking Paulie Malignaggi out in his first fight at welterweight (though Paulie has good defensive skills and is a much more elusive fighter than Maidana).

After the first few rounds, I expect Broner to dominate the fight and land more or less at will, taking advantage of Maidana's poor defense, high volume over-aggressiveness, and wild punch-throwing tendencies to counter punch effectively. Maidana has shown good improvement in his technical boxing skills in his last few fights under trainer Robert Garcia, but Maidana is still below average defensively and nowhere near the point of being able to outbox an elite fighter such as Broner.

The thing that worries me about my prediction is that Maidana does have great power in both hands, while Broner has shown a tendency in the past to be flat-footed and not move around as much in the ring as he should. Broner's lack of mobility should provide Maidana opportunities to land the KO shot he will probably have to land to win this fight. But given Maidana's power, I expect Broner to move a bit more than he has in previous fights (where he hasn't necessarily needed to be mobile to win) to elude Maidana's power and pressure. Even if Broner stays in the pocket more than expected, his defensive prowess should allow him to roll and slip the majority of Maidana's power punches. Broner's counter punching skill and ability to fight inside and attack the body should limit Maidana's ability to pressure Broner as the fight progresses.

The bottom line on this fight is Broner is a defensively gifted, A-level boxer fighting a B-level boxer (albeit with A-level punching power) with poor defensive skills. This should become an increasingly easy fight for Broner as the fight progresses and, with the way Maidana leaves himself open to counter punching (in particular to the body), wouldn't be at all surprised if Broner gets the TKO/KO. But I expect Maidana's chin and heart to help him survive the fight, leaving Broner to settle for a comfortable unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Broner by decision