Mayweather vs. Maidana: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (45-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-3-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 3, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -925, Maidana +725 (5 Dimes, 5/2/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $1.5 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Maidana - #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (45-0 record). 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight.
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including Maidana, Mayweather's last 13 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and does not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped much). Will this be the fight where Mayweather's age finally catches up to him?
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds.)
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches.
• Highly confident boxer coming off of the best fight of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last four fights. (Maidana is 4-0 under Robert Garcia.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. 
• The crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will likely be pro-Maidana, especially if he has any kind of success within the first few rounds.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today; is at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. Although he eventually got the KO, Maidana was in the past two years involved in very close fights with B-level fighters such as Josesito Lopez and Jesus Soto Karass so tough to see how he will have success vs. the #1 boxer in the sport. On the surface, it would appear Maidana's only chance to win the fight will be if he can land a lucky power punch to KO Mayweather.
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Throwing power punches from a stationary position will be extremely difficult to do vs. Mayweather.
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at.

Prefight Summary

This should end up being an easy fight for Mayweather. Maidana, one of the hardest punchers in the sport, certainly has a puncher's chance (as he does in every fight), especially if he can get Mayweather pinned to a corner of the ring - a position Mayweather has willingly and comfortably fought from in previous fights. If Maidana can land power punches against Mayweather with Mayweather pinned to the corner of the ring, there's a reasonable chance Maidana *could* overwhelm Mayweather and pull off a shocking TKO/KO.

 But other than a lucky punch, this is Maidana's only chance to win the fight. In his last fight, Maidana was able to overwhelm a flat-footed Adrien Broner who stood in front of him the whole fight. Mayweather is a much more mobile fighter on his feet, capable of countering and potshotting while on the move, a style Maidana has had tremendous difficulty with in the past (most notably his fight with Devon Alexander where he arguably lost every round of a 10-round fight). Maidana does not have the foot speed or the technical skills to outbox Mayweather over the course of 12 rounds.

The thing to note when analyzing this fight is that there's a *big* difference between throwing punches well on the move vs. throwing punches well from a stationary position. Maidana has proven himself to be one of the hardest punchers in the sport when throwing punches vs. less mobile fighters standing right in front of him. For this fight vs. Mayweather, I expect Maidana will be unable to setup and throw the same quality of punches vs. arguably the most elusive fighter in the sport.

I anticipate Floyd being able to figure out Maidana in the early rounds and unmercilessly counterpunching the defensively inept Argentinian over the middle and later rounds for a wide unanimous decision victory. I expect Floyd to be so dominant that I actually wouldn't be surprised if he stops Maidana (who has never been knocked down or stopped in his career)  by TKO/KO in the later rounds. But the pick here is Floyd by easy unanimous decision. 

Prediction: Mayweather by decision