Broner vs. Vargas: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-3, 24 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (28-2, 10 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 21, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 144 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  None
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner: +120, Vargas: -130 (5 Dimes, 4/21/18)
Purses: Broner: $1 million, Vargas: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: Not ranked, Vargas: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Why you should watch this fight

As indicated by the betting odds, Broner vs. Vargas is a fairly even-matched fight between Adrien Broner, an immensely talented boxer who's won major world titles in an impressive four different weight classes (and was the youngest fighter in boxing history to do so), and Jessie Vargas, a skilled fighter in his own right who's won major world titles in two weight classes.

Both fighters are in their late 20s and still very much in their primes, but for both, this fight is likely a true "last chance" to keep their names amongst the mix of the top fighters in the welterweight (147 lbs) and junior welterweight (140 lbs) divisions; the loser of this fight will likely - and perhaps permanently - be relegated to gatekeeper status.

Broner - at one time rated as high as the #5 pound-for-pound fighter in the world by Ring Magazine - suffered the first loss of his career 3.5 years ago vs. aggressive power-puncher Marcos Maidana. Broner also lost (decisively) the two times he stepped up to fight A-level competition - a wide unanimous decision loss to Shawn Porter in the summer of 2015 and, in his most recent fight 7 months ago, another clear unanimous decision loss to (undefeated) current junior welterweight champion Mikey Garcia. A loss to a respected. but relatively unheralded Vargas would possibly be the worst loss of his career and perhaps be confirmation Broner doesn't have the physical (or mental) skills or ability to beat a top-level opponent.

Vargas has had similar opportunities to break through vs. A-level opponents - his fight vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. in 2015 and his fight vs. Manny Pacquiao for the WBO welterweight title in 2016. Like Broner, both opportunities resulted in wide unanimous decision losses. A loss to Broner would actually be the worst loss of his career and solidify his status in a currently stacked welterweight division as a gatekeeper (as opposed to legitimate title contender).

But the winner of this fight will likely find himself right back in the mix near the top of the welterweight (or light welterweight) division and would be a prime candidate for a title shot in their next fight. (A title shot that could conceivably be accompanied by a 7-figure payday.)

Broner vs. Vargas is the headliner for a stacked card which also features former light middleweight (154 lbs) champion Jermall Charlo - who has recently moved up in weight and will be fighting the second middleweight fight of his career vs. Hugo Centeno Jr. - and former super featherweight champion Gervonta Davis, an electrifying, young knockout puncher seeking to regain the super featherweight title after losing it on the scales last year on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor PPV event.

Prefight Analysis

I see Broner vs. Vargas as a relatively even matchup between two B+-level fighters and, quite frankly, there are more tangible reasons to pick Broner than Vargas in this fight.

Broner is unquestionably the more talented fighter with the superior set of skills in this matchup. He's more athletic, has quicker hands and feet, is the more accurate and efficient puncher, has superior punching power, and has better defensive fundamentals.

Although Broner has lost every time he's stepped up to face A-level competition very few observers, if any, would consider Vargas to be an A-level fighter. (Vargas himself has lost the two times he's stepped up to face A-level competition.) To be fair, Broner was reasonably competitive in his most recent loss vs. Garcia, losing a few rounds that were actually fairly close. Most of the rounds Broner lost in that fight (as well as most of the rounds he lost in his two previous losses to Maidana and Porter) were due to essentially being forced to box off his back foot (i.e., box while backing up) in deference to his opponent's high-level punching power and effective aggression. One would think Broner will be more aggressive and take more risks vs. Vargas - a fighter with a career TKO/KO percentage of only 33% (10 wins by TKO or KOsin 30 career fights) who doesn't have anywhere near the punching power of any of the fighters Broner has lost to previously.

Vargas is a scrappy, but somewhat predictable fighter who boxes mostly behind a straightforward (though solid) jab and basic 1-2 punch combinations. He comes into this fight with a 4" height and 2" reach advantage but has shown in previous fights a willingness to give up his height and reach advantage to fight inside, which could easily be to Broner's advantage given his superior hand speed, accuracy, and power.

Broner, in my opinion, is the fighter more likely to easily adjust to the 144-lb catchweight for this fight; he's fought 7 of his last 8 fights over the past 4 years below 144 lbs. Vargas, on the other hand, hasn't fought below welterweight (147 lbs) since 2014 so may be more prone to feeling the effects of weight drain coming into fight night. (It was in fact Broner who requested the catchweight for this fight, presumably to gain an advantage on Vargas who is more accustomed at the higher weight limit.)

Overall, I see Broner as the superior, more talented boxer who is well aware that a loss here would likely be the most devastating of his career and perhaps permanently end any consideration of him as a top-level fighter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Broner, fighting for the first time under new trainer Kevin Cunningham, put on a strong performance and get the win here - especially as the "A-side" of this boxing promotion in front of what I expect to be a pro-Broner crowd in NYC. (Vargas is a West Coast fighter who casual boxing fans on the East Coast are largely unfamiliar with.)

But while I think there are more reasons than not that Broner *should* win, I'm picking Vargas to win this fight. Despite Broner's (numerous) advantages, I think the key to this fight will be punch activity; Vargas is actually a more active puncher than Mikey Garcia, who outworked Broner in Broner's most recent fight by throwing nearly twice as many punches despite being the naturally smaller boxer. I rate Vargas as a slightly more talented version of Adrian Granados - a fighter with a pedestrian resume who Broner barely beat by split decision last year in his hometown of Cincinnati (despite getting decisively outworked by Granados, who threw nearly 300 more punches than Broner). Broner has consistently demonstrated issues with punch (in)activity throughout his career vs. even mediocre opponents and has a proven habit of fighting down to his level of opposition; I fully expect Vargas to be the aggressor and outwork Broner as most of his recent opponents have done. Note that in the past, Vargas has gotten the benefit of a few very close, controversial decisions largely by outworking his opponent (see his fights vs. Josesito Lopez and Wale Omotoso as prime examples); a matchup vs. a relatively punch-selective Broner is another fight where Vargas has stands a good chance of eking out a victory on the judges' scorecards based on activity if the fight happens to be close either way.

Vargas doesn't have Broner's quickness or defensive abilities, but is skilled enough to stay out of real trouble vs. a typically risk-averse Broner who I think at the end of the day will stay true to his usual form and not take too many chances in this fight. It's also worth noting that the impressive power Broner demonstrated at lower weights earlier in his career hasn't carried up as well to higher weight classes; at below 140 lbs Broner is undefeated and boasts an 85% TKO/KO percentage (22 KOs in 26 fights). In his 4 fights above 140 lbs, Broner is 2-2 with no wins by TKO or KO.

As mentioned previously Vargas, like Broner, has yet to defeat an A-level opponent. However he was reasonably competitive vs. Bradley (who he arguably came close to stopping near the end of the 12th round of their fight) and Pacquiao (where one judge had him losing by only a single point), and earned an impressive 9th round stoppage victory vs. then undefeated Sadam Ali, who is currently the light middleweight champion of the world after beating future hall-of-fame fighter Miguel Cotto (in what was promoted as the final fight of Cotto's career) by unanimous decision. (So Vargas has stepped up and generally fought well vs. high-level opposition despite losing most of those fights.)

As shown with some of his antics leading up to the fight - which included confrontations with the lead promoter of the event, other fighters on the card, and even a Brooklyn-based rapper - Broner appears to lack professionalism and seriousness in his prefight preparations. Broner has actually performed below expectations in nearly every fight he's fought since his impressive TKO victory over then WBC lightweight champion Antonio DeMarco in 2012 - including even the fights he's won. I like Broner personally but see little to indicate that things will change vs. Vargas despite the obvious importance of this fight to his career.

I see Vargas's work rate and typical scrappiness vs. Broner's efficient but low-volume, reluctant-to-take-risk style resulting in a close fight that likely goes Vargas's way. I can't see Vargas stopping a tough-chinned Broner (who's fairly solid defensively and has never really come close to being stopped in his career), so see the best bet on this fight as Vargas to win by decision - which can currently be found as high as +135 on Bookmaker.

 At the end of the day, this fight is less predictable than most given that 1) this is the first fight of Broner's professional career under new trainer Kevin Cunningham (thus difficult to anticipate whether the new trainer will positively or negatively impact Broner's performance), 2) the fight will be fought at a 144-lb catchweight (again, difficult to predict the impact the catchweight will have on each fighter though, as mentioned above, I suspect the catchweight will favor Broner), and 3) both fighters have been relatively inactive recently, each having fought only once in the past 14 months.

But in many ways this is an even matchup featuring clashing styles which should make for an interesting and entertaining fight no matter who emerges victorious.I'll be at this fight Saturday night and looking forward to see what unfolds!

Prediction: Vargas by decision

Recommended bet(s): 1) Vargas by 12 round decision (1 unit) 

2) Broner/Vargas goes the full 12 round distance (.33 unit)

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Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (39-0, 38 KOs) vs. Luis Ortiz (28-0, 24 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 3, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Wilder: -325, Ortiz: +295 (5 Dimes, 3/3/18)
Purses: Wilder: $2.1 million, Ortiz: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Ortiz: #5 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Ortiz: Southpaw
Referee: David Fields

Why you should watch this fight

A once long-dormant heavyweight division has been heating up over the past couple of years with the emergence of undefeated stars like Anthony Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Luis Ortiz, and Australian Jason Parker to once again become one of the most exciting divisions in the sport. (Undefeated Tyson Fury, who ended Wladimir Klitschko's nearly decade-long reign as heavyweight champion in 2015 is also reportedly making a return to the ring this year after a more than two-year hiatus.)

All four major heavyweight titles are currently held by Joshua (WBA, IBF), Wilder (WBC), and Parker (WBO); this Saturday's fight between Wilder and Ortiz in Brooklyn and the fight later this month (March 31st) between Joshua and Parker in the United Kingdom essentially serve as semifinal matchups for a superfight later this year or early next year that hopefully crowns the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in nearly 18 years (Lennox Lewis in 2000).

Wilder is one of the most feared and avoided boxers in the sport - the WBC heavyweight champion who boasts a perfect record 39-0, with 38 of those wins (97.4%) coming by TKO/KO. Half (19) of those 38 knockouts have come in the first round, including his most recent fight last November - a rematch vs. Bermane Stiverne. Wilder has excellent power in both hands (particularly his right) and - in knocking out Stiverne last November - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his professional career. (In their first fight back in January 2015, Stiverne went the full 12 round distance with Wilder, losing a unanimous decision.)

Wilder, who has been heavyweight champion for three years (since beating Stiverne to earn the title), will be making his seventh title defense vs. undefeated Cuban heavyweight Luis Ortiz. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also a feared, heavily-avoided fighter with excellent power - only two of his scored 28 professional fights have gone the distance, with the other 26 ending in victory by early TKO/KO/DQ. (Ortiz also had two other fights that ended as an early stoppage victory but were later ruled no contests and struck from his win-loss record.)

Ortiz is by far the toughest opponent Wilder has faced in his career and is considered by most observers to have better overall skills than Wilder. At 38 years old, Ortiz is looking to win his first major world title belt. Ortiz is also attempting to become the first Cuban fighter - and first Latino born outside the United States - in boxing history to win a heavyweight title.

Again, Wilder vs. Ortiz will be one of the more significant fights to take place this year - the winner will be in line for a fight vs. the winner of Joshua vs. Parker (a fight that takes place in a few weeks) to determine the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world (assuming the politics of boxing don't get in the way and the fight can actually be made).

Prefight Analysis

All things considered, Wilder is the guy who I feel will probably win this fight. Wilder has exceptional power in both hands (to the point of - as I've mentioned above - having knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career), is in his prime, and is facing a past-prime fighter in a 38-year old Ortiz who can't match Wilder's athleticism or speed. Ortiz can box on the move but, given his relative deficit in athleticism and speed compared to Wilder, I find it unlikely he'll be able to evade Wilder's game-changing punching power for a full 12 rounds.

I expect Wilder's above-average jab and rangy boxing style - augmented by an 83" reach and 7' wingspan - to do a decent enough job of keeping Ortiz's offensive attack at bay. (More precisely, I expect Wilder's ability to box from distance, his quicker foot movement, as well as Ortiz's respect of Wilder's knockout power, to largely nullify Ortiz's clear advantage in boxing skill.) Wilder is a supremely confident, determined fighter who's made it known that he wants to go down as one of the all-time greats. Perhaps it's more talk and bravado than "all-time great"-caliber substance but I truly believe Wilder flat out just wants to win this fight more than Ortiz and that that desire will go a long way towards carrying him to victory here. Wilder is one of my favorite boxers - I'm rooting for him to win this fight and would grade him at approximately 55-60% to get the victory Saturday night.

But with all that said, it's tough to overlook the value of Ortiz as a 3-1 underdog. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also undefeated with impressive power (as evidenced by his career 80% TKO/KO ratio). And like Wilder, Ortiz has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career. But Ortiz is almost certainly the more skilled, versatile fighter in this matchup. Ortiz is a high-level, Cuban-schooled technical boxer with extensive amateur experience (an impressive 343-19 record in the amateurs) facing a still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder who's arguably not shown much in the way skill other than a solid, rangy (though often basic and predictable) jab to complement his explosive power and athleticism. Though not his fault (as he's consistently called out top-level competition to fight him and has even been more than willing to travel overseas in hostile territory for big fights), Wilder has yet as a pro to face an elite heavyweight -  Ortiz will be by far the best he'll have faced thus far in his career.

Ortiz likely has the advantage in a pure boxing match, and also in fighting from close distance as he's proven in numerous fights to be a skilled inside fighter - whereas Wilder has actually struggled on the inside vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's recent fights vs. Gerald Washington, Artur Spilka, and Eric Molina). If Ortiz can use his superior boxing skill to evade Wilder's power (in particular limit the effectiveness of Wilder's right hand) he has an excellent chance of winning the fight to the point where I wouldn't be at all surprised if he stops Wilder in the mid to late rounds. Ortiz is the more accurate, savvy power puncher facing a fighter in Wilder who at times is prone to swinging wildly (thus leaving himself out of position and open to clean counterpunching) and whose chin has never been tested by an elite puncher.

There are reasons why even Wilder's promoter, Lou DiBella, was reluctant to take what is widely considered a high-risk, relatively low-reward fight for Wilder. Given his frequent mentions of UK heavyweight superstar Anthony Joshua in the prefight build-up to this fight, I suspect Wilder is at least somewhat overlooking this fight and perhaps underestimating Ortiz - who I'll point out again is a heavy-handed power puncher who has never come close to losing a fight in his professional career and is the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup.

I do think in this fight that Wilder's impressive power from distance - and superior athleticism and speed - is likely to overwhelm Ortiz's superior skill en route to a 39th victory by stoppage in his 40th fight. But given Ortiz's clear advantage in skill and experience - as well as the fight-changing punching power he himself brings to the table - I can't help but think Ortiz to win at (approximately) +300 odds is the best bet on this fight. If you're giving me +300 odds (even currently as high as +325 at some books) on the better skilled, more experienced and versatile fighter who's never come close to losing a fight (and who's never even been knocked down in his career), I'll take those odds almost every time. Especially when he's up against a guy who - despite an impressive record - has no experience vs. top-level competition and relies more on his athleticism and power than his still somewhat raw boxing abilities. But I will hedge the primary bet on Ortiz to win with what I feel is the most likely outcome of the fight - Wilder by TKO/KO (which can currently be found as low as -150 at Bovada).

I'll be at this fight Saturday night so regardless of the outcome I'm expecting some intense, explosive between these two heavy-handed heavyweights!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 1) Ortiz to win (risk .5 unit) 

2) Wilder by TKO/KO (to win .5 unit)

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George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr.: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: George Groves (27-3, 20 KOs) vs. Chris Eubank Jr. (26-1, 20 KOs)
Location: Manchester Arena, Manchester, United Kingdom
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: None (in the U.S. will be streamed on World Boxing Super Series YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD3OiO5NLkUJHL23qUv8L0Q/featured)
Line: Groves +158, Eubank Jr. -168 (5 Dimes, 2/17/18)
Purse: Groves: $2.1 million (approximate), Eubank Jr.: $2.1 million (approximate) [The two fighters are splitting a purse of approximately £3 million pounds evenly.]
Ring Magazine Rankings: Groves: #2 ranked super middleweight, Eubank Jr.: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Groves: Orthodox, Eubank Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Alexander

Why you should watch this fight

George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. is one of the most anticipated fights of the year and the most anticipated fight between two UK fighters since Carl Froch rematched Groves in May of 2014, a fight which boasted a post-World War II British record of 80,000 in attendance at Wembley Stadium and sold out in less than an hour. (By comparison, this weekend's Groves vs. Eubank matchup sold out the 21,000-seat Manchester Arena in Manchester, England within just seven minutes.)

This fight features arguably the two best super middleweights in the world. Groves is a technically sound, experienced boxer with very good punching power in both hands that complements his decent hand speed and an ability to box on the move. He's looked fairly impressive in winning his last six fights (four by TKO/KO) since losing a WBC title fight to Badou Jack in 2015 and suffering two TKO losses to Froch in each of the two years prior to that. Groves, who switched trainers to noted UK trainer Shane McGuigan after his loss to Jack, won his first major world title - the WBA super middleweight title - last October vs. previously undefeated UK contender Jamie Cox.

In the first defense of his super middleweight title, Groves will face challenger Eubank Jr. -  the son of former two-weight world champion and British boxing great Chris Eubank Sr.  - who is trying to win the first major title of his professional career. High-volume, speedy, and aggressive with excellent conditioning and very good power, Eubank has looked highly impressive since his  controversial split decision loss in 2014  to current undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, having decisively won his last eight fights (seven by TKO/KO) and making enough of an impression in recent fights that he enters the fight as a solid (-168) favorite despite being the challenger who has never previously won a major world title.

This fight is being contested as a semifinal within the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) super middleweight tournament. The winner of this fight will not only be the WBA super middleweight champion (and widely considered the best super middleweight of the world), the winner will advance to the WBSS final in London this June to face the winner of the Callum Smith vs. Juergen Braehmer WBSS semifinal (taking place next Saturday in Germany). While technically a semifinal matchup on paper, Groves vs. Eubank Jr. is essentially a megafight in the UK between two of the top ten British fighters in the sport pound-for-pound and is one of the very best fights that could've been made in boxing overall. Fantastic matchup that has all the makings of being a candidate for fight of the year.

Prefight Analysis

There are a bunch of solid reasons to favor Groves in this fight.

He is the naturally bigger man - a career super middleweight (168 lbs) who could possibly even compete for a world title at light heavyweight (175 lbs), while Eubank has a smaller frame and limited top-level experience at super middleweight, having actually fought most of his more notable fights in recent years at middleweight (160 lbs). Groves also has greater punching power to complement his size advantage (including one-punch power that former Groves opponent Martin Murray rates as superior to Ring Magazine's #1 pound-for-pound fighter Gennady Golovkin's) and is considered by most to be a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Eubank.

Groves without a doubt has more experience than Eubank vs. world-class opponents (particularly at super middleweight), having beaten highly regarded fighters such as James DeGale (an Olympic gold medalist who is still considered by some to be one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound despite his recent upset loss to Caleb Truax), Martin Murray, Fedor Chuvinov, and Jamie Cox. Groves has also been in close, competitive super middleweight title fights vs. Jack (where he lost a split decision) and twice vs. Froch (where he led early in both fights, including the first fight where he led late on all three judges' scorecards before a questionable stoppage). Groves has fought on the world stage before (including in front of 80,000 fans in his second fight vs. Froch at Wembley Stadium n London) and won the WBA super middleweight title in his last fight vs. a solid, undefeated opponent in Cox.

Outside of a past-prime, 37-year-old (though still dangerous) Arthur Abraham, Eubank has yet to defeat any high profile opponents; the biggest name Eubank has fought in his career is current undefeated middleweight champion Saunders, who he lost to by split decision in 2014 after being dominated in the early rounds of the fight. Saturday's fight will be just Eubank's fourth 12-round fight at super middleweight and the first major world title fight of his career.

Generally, if a fighter has the advantages Groves has in size, skills, punching power, and experience you'd expect that fighter to win... when you further consider that sportsbooks are currently offering odds as high as +170 for Groves to win or as high as +500 for Groves to win on points (which are compelling odds given that Eubank has never been stopped or knocked down even once as a pro), even a Groves skeptic would have to strongly consider betting on him simply for the value.

Though I could see this fight going either way and think the odds being offered on Groves are tempting, I still think betting on Eubank Jr. to win is where the best value lies. Despite Groves's advantages in certain notable metrics (size, skill, etc.), I don't think any of those advantages are wide enough vs. an ever-improving Eubank who seems to have gotten better after each fight since his narrow loss three years ago to Saunders. (In other words, while Groves has the edge in size, power, and skill I feel Eubank is comparable enough in these areas to compete and give Groves serious problems.) Though Groves has a slightly larger physical frame and bigger punching power, Eubank strikes me as the physically stronger fighter; I expect that he'll be able to use his superior athleticism and speed to get inside on Groves, where he can impose his physical strength and break him down with high punch volume - particularly in the later rounds of the fight.

Eubank is the better fighter from close range and has the power to hurt Groves on the inside - a brawl-style fight from close distance favors Eubank while a more classic boxing match from mid-range or full distance likely favors Groves. I feel Eubank's advantages in physical strength and speed combined with his typically busy punch output will ultimately allow him to control the pace of the fight and mostly negate some of the advantages Groves has in this matchup.

But the biggest mismatch I see in this fight relates to stamina and mental fortitude. Especially in his biggest fights, Groves is notorious for being a 6-round fighter who starts well only to tire and fade late. Eubank, on the other hand, has a reputation for being a 12-round fighter - one of the more well-conditioned boxers in the sport who seemingly gets stronger as the fight goes on and is capable of turning up his intensity in the late rounds of a fight. 

Groves was leading early in his fights vs. Froch before fading and getting stopped in the late rounds of both fights. He was also leading in the middle rounds of his super middleweight title fight vs. Jack (despite getting knocked down in the first round of the fight) but lost a split decision after losing most of the late rounds. Even in Groves's most impressive win - a majority decision victory vs. DeGale back in 2011 -  he won most of the early rounds before losing most of the late rounds. Groves has a history of faltering in the late rounds vs. top-level opponents - one has to question not only the stamina but the mental toughness of a fighter who consistently fades late in big fights. Eubank is a durable fighter with excellent stamina and a solid chin - and fights with as much (or more) aggressive intensity in late rounds as he does early; this bodes poorly for Groves given his history of tiring late in fights.

Also consider that in recent fights, Groves has not boxed on his feet (i.e., not been as mobile) as much as he did when he was younger (like his win nearly seven years ago vs. DeGale). Groves has instead employed a more stationary style where he is more prone to standing in front of his opponent and trading power punches - a strategy which perhaps allows him to better utilize his outstanding power but a style which probably cost him both of his fights vs. Froch and which may not be the wisest style to employ vs. a durable, high-volume power puncher with a solid chin like Eubank.

I actually expect Groves to outbox Eubank a bit early and get off to a good start (as he typically does in these kind of matchups) but think the stronger, faster, more durable and relentless Eubank will wear Groves down late for a win on points or perhaps even a late stoppage. I get the sense Eubank is hungrier and mentally tougher than Groves (perhaps much more so), and sees this fight as a career-defining moment and a win that will put him on a faster track to international superstardom.

So I do like Eubank overwhelming Groves late for the win as the best bet on this fight. (Eubank to win can currently be had for odds as low as -160.) With that said, Groves to win by decision - which can be found for as high as +500 on Bovada - is a bet that's too good to pass up as a hedge given Grove's advantages in some key metrics (size, skill, power, and experience), as well as the fact that Eubank has never been stopped as a pro. So the betting strategy I'd recommend is Eubank to win hedged with a smaller bet of Groves to win by decision (to cover losses in case Eubank doesn't win). (This betting strategy won't yield much profit but this is where I see the best value in the fight.)

Both fighters have a knack for making exciting fights so this should be a good one!

Prediction: Eubank Jr. to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Eubank Jr. to win (1 unit)
2) Groves to win on points (.33 unit)

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Danny Garcia vs. Brandon Rios: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (33-1, 19 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (34-3-1, 25 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -1750, Rios +1350 (5 Dimes, 2/15/18)
Purse: Garcia: $1.25 million, Rios: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Primarily to confirm whether Danny Garcia - who lost for the first time in his professional career in a close, competitive split-decision loss to Keith Thurman last March and is coming off the longest layoff of his career after that loss - should still be considered one of the elite welterweights in what may now be the most stacked division in boxing.

Indeed, the welterweight division is deep in talent with names like Thurman, Errol Spence, Manny Pacquiao, Shawn Porter, and now Terence Crawford - who makes his welterweight debut in April vs. undefeated champion Jeff Horn for the WBO title after becoming the undisputed junior welterweight champion this past August. (Crawford is currently rated the Ring Magazine #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport behind only Gennady Golovkin and was the first undisputed world champion in any weight class in over a decade.) This fight should serve as a gauge to determine whether Garcia - a no-frills but talented and skilled boxer who probably has the most impressive fight resume out of any of the top welterweights - still belongs among the elite in the division.

The gauge for Garcia on Saturday night will be Brandon Rios, a former WBA world champion at lightweight who has arguably been one of the most exciting action fighters of this generation. Despite being stopped in his last loss back in November of 2015 vs. Tim Bradley (Rios's only stoppage loss and the only time he's been knocked down in his career), Rios is known for his Mexican-style grit and having an excellent chin. Rios is a come-forward pressure fighter with good power who is a fan favorite and a tough out for anyone, but this fight vs. Garcia will be just his 2nd fight after a 1.5-year break (temporary retirement) from the ring after his loss to Bradley. But Rios appears to be rejuvenated and in the best shape of his boxing career after reuniting with original trainer and close friend Robert Garcia, following a one-fight stint with Los Angeles-based trainer Ricky Funez.

Garcia vs. Rios is a WBC title eliminator, meaning that the winner of this fight becomes the second mandatory challenger for Thurman's WBC belt. (Porter, who beat Andre Berto in a WBC title eliminator last April, is currently Thurman's first mandatory opponent.) If Rios wins this fight, it would be an impressive comeback from a brief retirement, would be by far the best win of Rios's career, and would put him on track again for the high six-figure/low seven-figure paydays he enjoyed in the prime of his career vs. fighters like Manny Pacquiao and Mike Alvarado.

If Garcia wins (and wins impressively), it would further solidify his status as one of the best fighters at 147 lbs and as still a serious threat to any of the top guys in the division.

Prefight Analysis

As an over 20-1 favorite at some sportsbooks, Garcia is (by far) the widest favorite I've done a prediction for so it should be no surprise I'm picking him to win big here. A prime Rios goes 12 rounds with Garcia every time and would've even been competitive in spots with his relentless pressure and solid chin. But a past-prime, battle-worn Rios who's been relatively inactive the past couple of years and never really looked impressive at welterweight will have a difficult time hanging in there vs. a prime, fresh Garcia who is legitimately one of the top four or five boxers in a deep welterweight division and is arguably one of the top 20 boxers in the world pound-for-pound.

Rios is a name well-known to all hardcore boxing fans and is notorious for being a tough-out action fighter but this fight is a mismatch to the point you could question why it was even approved as a WBC belt title eliminator. Garcia is considerably more skilled, faster, and has greater (as well as more accurate) punching power than the relatively predictable and limited Rios, who even in his prime never beat a fighter of Garcia's caliber. (Garcia, on the other hand, has beaten a long list of fighters more talented and skilled than Rios - see Amir Khan, Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Paulie Malignaggi, as well as a few others.)

Rios knows only one way to fight (which for the most part has served him well throughout his boxing career) - a style predicated on high-volume pressure, trading punches from close distance, and a will to win that seems nearly always greater than his opponent's. But Garcia has a lot to prove coming off the first loss of his career and has proven to have one of the better chins in boxing (having never been knocked down in his career despite having faced some of the more feared punchers in the sport like Matthysse and Thurman). It's hard to believe Rios - whose power has never been eye-catching at welterweight like it was at lower weights - poses much of a knockout threat to Garcia with a punching attack that is high in volume but is generally predictable with not much speed or creativity behind the punches. Garcia, on the other hand, is a deceptively slick, savvy puncher who will land crushing power punches (in particular his left hook, which is one of the best left hooks in the sport) vs. Rios, who has notoriously poor defensive skills (including little to no head movement, relatively slow reflexes,  and a willingness to take clean power punches in order to counter with his own attack).

Garcia wants to make a statement here that he is still one of the top fighters in the world at 147 lbs; Rios appears to have been the guy handpicked by Garcia's manager, Al Haymon, as the opponent Garcia would best be able to make that statement against with little to no risk of a second consecutive loss on his boxing record.

Despite the criticisms and negative assessment in this analysis, Rios is actually one of my favorite fighters; I respect his chin and tremendous toughness enough to believe he'll probably last the majority of the 12 rounds with Garcia. But at the end of the day, this is arguably a low A-level fighter in Garcia vs. a C-level fighter in Rios (with D-level defense) who's best days are behind him. I see Garcia breaking Rios down in the mid to late rounds to win this fight by stoppage - possibly even a vicious stoppage that forces Rios back into retirement. There's certainly a chance Rios has enough of a chin to get through the full 12 rounds - especially given that Garcia can be very patient at times and may be looking more for spots to counter rather than seek and destroy. But I think the (wide) mismatch in skill, Garcia's (oft-underappreciated) power, and Rios's declining abilities and propensity for getting hit cleanly makes a bet on Garcia to win inside the distance (which can currently be found at -130) the best bet for this fight.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Garcia by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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David Lemieux vs. Billy Joe Saunders: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: David Lemieux (38-3, 33 KOs) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs)
Location: Place Bell, Laval, Quebec, Canada
Date: December 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Lemieux -115, Saunders -105 (5 Dimes, 12/15/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lemieux: #3 ranked middleweight, Saunders: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Lemieux: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

In a middleweight division loaded with talent, Billy Joe Saunders is an undefeated world title holder (WBO) who is arguably the third best middleweight on the planet behind boxing superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.

Saunders is a tough and very talented technician who has beaten everyone put in front of him,  including highly regarded World Boxing Super Series super middleweight favorite and - at the time undefeated - Chris Eubank Jr. But Saunders will be fighting outside the the friendly confines of his home country (the United Kingdom) for the first time in his professional career Saturday night when he travels to Canada to face one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport in David Lemieux on Lemieux's home turf in Montreal. Lemieux is a highly aggressive, explosive puncher with power in both hands and an impressive 80.5% KO ratio over 41 professional fights; his only loss in the past seven years was to current Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1-ranked fighter Golovkin.

A win for Lemieux tomorrow night would be by far the most impressive of his career (would in fact be his first win vs. a top-level opponent) and would firmly establish him as one of the top four or five middleweights in the world. The winner of this fight is probably the most likely to face the winner of next May's Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch later in 2018 for a middleweight unification bout that could result in the first undisputed middleweight champion in boxing since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

With the exception of a few, fighters from the United Kingdom have typically not fared well in title fights overseas in hostile environments vs. world-class opposition. A win for Saunders tomorrow night vs. Lemieux would actually be one of the more impressive wins for a UK fighter outside the UK in recent years. 

Prefight Analysis

As the odds suggest, Lemieux vs. Saunders is a true "50/50" fight that could go either way. Extremely difficult to predict the winner here.

What you have to like about Saunders is that he is likely the better pure boxer/technician in this matchup, with his high ring intelligence and superior boxing skills. Unlike Lemieux, Saunders has also never lost a fight in his professional career. Whenever Saunders has faced a tough, top-level opponent (vs. Eubank Jr., Andy Lee, or even his most recent fight vs. a solid Willie Monroe Jr. - all of whom are arguably on the same level as, if not even slightly better than Lemieux) he's emerged from the fight victorious. Lemieux, on the other hand, has never beaten a fighter near the caliber of Saunders and has actually already lost twice in his hometown of Montreal to fighters with less skill than Saunders. (Lemieux's first loss was to a fighter in Joachim Alcine who proceeded to lose his next five fights after beating Lemieux.)

Although Saunders doesn't have Lemieux's power, he strikes me as both mentally and physically tougher than Lemieux - a toughness I think that is the result of his blue collar, Gypsy upbringing where he'd been fighting in bare-knuckle competitions when he was only five years old. Saunders has a tight, effective defense (opponents land only 18% of total punches and 23.6% of power punches vs. Saunders) and has never been knocked out or knocked down in his professional career. (Lemieux, on the other hand, has been stopped twice.) I think Saunders' superior boxing skill (in particular his solid jab which I expect to be very effective in managing distance vs. Lemieux), as well as his oft-overlooked mental toughness and grit may be too much for Lemieux to over come - even in Montreal.

With all that said, I'm not at all comfortable betting on Saunders to win this fight - even at nearly even money odds - as Lemieux does have several advantages in this matchup. This fight is essentially in Lemieux's hometown (Laval, Quebec - a suburb of Montreal) and - although Saunders is technically the "A" side fighter in this matchup - Lemieux's promoter Golden Boy is the more high profile, lead promoter for Saturday night's boxing card. I strongly suspect the home crowd atmosphere combined with the backing of Golden Boy Promotions may create a scoring bias in favor of Lemieux - as it arguably did  this past May for Golden Boy-backed Canelo in his controversial draw vs. Golovkin, a fight which many felt he clearly lost. Again, this will be the first time in Saunders' professional career that he's fought outside of the United Kingdom, so it's tough to predict how well he'll fare fighting in a hostile environment.

Although Saunders may have slightly faster hand speed, Lemieux is the superior athlete with much greater punching power. Saunders has never in his career faced a fighter with Lemieux's combination of power and punch volume and could end up getting overwhelmed by Lemieux's effective aggression - especially in the later rounds where Saunders is known to gas out on occasion. And though Lemieux has lost earlier in his career - as an inexperienced 22-year old - to lesser opponents than Saunders, he's gained experience and improved a bit since those losses; since losing two consecutive fights in 2011, Lemieux has lost only one other fight - to a fighter in Golovkin many consider the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the great middleweights of all time. Saunders, on the other hand, hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent fights, causing some to speculate whether he's already past his peak as a top-level fighter.

Lemieux vs. Saunders is a "toss-up" fight in the truest sense of the word. Despite Lemieux's power advantage inside the ring and advantage in some key intangibles outside of the ring (home crowd, high-profile promoter), I still slightly favor Saunders' superior boxing skills, defense, and mental toughness to prevail vs. Lemieux. Just not enough to bet on it.

I do, however, believe Saunders - with his slick defensive abilities and solid chin (a chin which has never hit the canvas in his professional career) - is highly likely to get through the full 12 rounds with Lemieux, win or lose. Note that 2 of Lemieux's last 3 fights within the past 14 months - both vs. lesser-skilled opponents than Saunders - went the full distance with Lemieux failing to score even one knockdown in either fight. Note also that Lemieux - who, like Saunders, has a history of stamina issues - has only one of his 33 TKO/KO victories past the 7th round; in other words, if Lemieux doesn't stop his opponent in the early or middle rounds, he's usually not stopping them late.

With Saunders not being much of a puncher himself (only two wins by TKO/KO in the past five years and a career TKO/KO% of only 48%), I think that the best value on this fight is to bet that the fight goes the full 12 rounds - a bet that is currently available at around -150 odds.

As far as the outcome, it's hard to predict even what kind of fight will break out Saturday night. A high-volume war likely favors Lemieux, while a slower-paced, more tactical fight likely favors Saunders. Bur either way it's an intriguing matchup and tough test that puts a lot at stake for both fighters.

Prediction: Saunders by decision

Recommended bet: Lemieux/Saunders goes full 12 rounds (.5 unit)

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Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (9-1, 7 KOs) vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux (17-0, 11 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 9, 2017
Weight class: Super featherweight (130 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBO World super featherweight title
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -325, Rigondeaux: +295 (5 Dimes, 12/8/17)
Purses: Lomachenko: $1.2 million, Rigondeaux: $400,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked junior lightweight, Rigondeaux: #4 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked junior featherweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Rigondeaux: Southpaw
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

For hardcore boxing fans, Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux is right up there with Canelo vs. Golovkin and the first Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev matchup as one of the most anticipated fights in recent years between two pound-for-pound ranked fighters in their prime.

The aforementioned Canelo/Golovkin and Ward/Kovalev matchups were PPV-televised fights. At least in the United States. boxing fans with a basic cable subscription will be able to watch tomorrow's highly anticipated matchup for free on ESPN.

Saturday's matchup features arguably the two greatest fighters in the 120+ year history of organized amateur boxing and will be the first time in the history of the sport fighters who have each won multiple Olympic gold medals will have faced each other. As an amateur, Lomachenko had a boxing record of 396-1 and won Olympic gold representing the Ukraine in the 2008 (Beijing) and 2012 (London) Olympics, while Rigondeaux boasted an amateur boxing record of 463-12 and won Olympic gold representing Cuba in the 2000 (Sydney) and 2004 (Athens) Olympics.

Lomachenko - who first won a major world title 3.5 years ago in only his third professional fight - is widely regarded as a historically great talent with first ballot hall-of-fame potential and is considered by many to be the fighter most likely to end up being the greatest boxer of the post-Mayweather era (assuming Mayweather is retired for good this time). On Saturday, Lomachenko will be facing by far the toughest test in young professional career in Rigondeaux - an experienced master technician who has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career and who some would argue is even more skilled than even the uber-talented Lomachenko.

This fight between two top five pound-for-pound talents (Ring Magazine ranks Lomachenko and Rigondeaux as the #3 and #4 boxers in the world, respectively) should go a very long way to answering whether Lomachenko is truly deserving of the massive hype he's received as a potential all-time great and possible best boxer of a post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation. On the other hand this fight also has the potential of being a career-defining win for Rigondeaux, a vastly underappreciated talent who has long been one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (if not the best), but has been sharply criticized for his elusive, fan-unfriendly boxing style, weak level of opposition, and general inactivity. (Rigondeaux has fought only four times in the past three years and fought only three full rounds in the past two years.) If a 37-year old Rigondeaux - who has fought his entire professional career at super bantamweight (122 lbs) - can jump up two weight classes and put on an impressive performance at super featherweight (130 lbs) vs. a fighter in Lomachenko whom many have pegged as a future hall-of-famer after only ten professional fights, it should go a long way towards silencing his numerous doubters and solidifying his own claim as one of the best boxers of this generation.

Why Vasyl Lomachenko will win

After only ten professional fights, Lomachenko is considered by many boxing fans and experts alike to be arguably the best boxer in the sport pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine currently has him ranked #3 pound-for-pound, while ESPN has him ranked #2) and a fighter who may potentially go down as one of the greatest boxers the sport has ever seen.

Lomachenko - the current WBO super featherweight champion of the world - has perhaps the most impressive record in the history of amateur boxing (career amateur boxing record of 396-1 record, double Olympic gold medalist, two-time amateur boxing world champion). He was also able to win a major world title in only his third professional fight and became a two-division world champion (at featherweight and super featherweight) in only his seventh professional fight, both records for the fewest fights at the start of a professional career to achieve these feats.

Lomachenko's hype and impressive achievements are the result of what appears to be freakish, historically great talent and skill. Lomachenko is a master technician with exceptional footwork and impeccable timing. His deft footwork in particular appears to be the root of his greatness, allowing him to throw precise punches from unorthodox, unpredictable angles with power as well as dominate the tempo of fights by controlling distance with his movement. He is a highly intelligent pressure fighter who throws punches at a high volume with very good hand speed and great accuracy.

Given Lomachenko's high volume, pressure-oriented style, one should expect him to be more active and consistently throw more punches than the relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - who will primarily be looking to counter Lomachenko's offensive attack.

Since his split decision loss 3.5 years ago to Orlando Salido (a fight that was only the 2nd fight of Lomachenko's professional career in which Salido failed to make weight and came in to the fight 21 pounds over the 126 lb weight limit), Lomachenko has won eight straight fights - with the last six by TKO/KO in dominating fashion. Still very early in his professional career, Lomachenko appears to be improving with each fight, with performances so dominant in recent fights that his last three opponents - including highly regarded and then-undefeated Nicholas Walters - voluntarily quit on their stools during the middle rounds of their fights.

As a 130 lb super featherweight world title holder who won Olympic gold and was a world champion as an amateur at lightweight (135 lbs), Lomachenko will likely enter Saturday's matchup with a noticeable weight advantage vs. the physically smaller Rigondeaux - who is moving two weight classes up from super bantamweight (122 lbs) to fight at 130 lbs for the first time in his boxing career, professional or amateur. Lomachenko's experience at the higher weight class combined with his versatile set of skills and superior athleticism may prove to be overwhelming vs. even an unquestionably elite pound-for-pound fighter in Rigondeaux. Rigondeaux is a defensively-gifted counterpuncher with very underrated power but one has to wonder how well that power will carry up two weight classes for a past-prime, 37-year old fighter who has been relatively inactive in recent years. (Rigondeaux has fought only three full rounds the past three years and fought only once in each of the past three years.)

Lomachenko's lone loss was to a pressure fighter in Salido who used high punch volume, a significant weight advantage, and experience to essentially bully a relatively inexperienced Lomachenko in the early rounds of their fight en route to a controversial split decision victory. Rigondeaux is a much smaller, low-volume counter puncher who doesn't have the pressure style that Salido used over 3 years ago to defeat a now much more experienced Lomachenko.

Lomachenko's pressuring style leaves him susceptible to counter punching at times but his excellent footwork, as well as frequent and varied upper body and punch feints makes him very difficult to time and hit cleanly. One shouldn't be surprised if even Rigondeaux's highly accurate counter punching and superior hand speed have trouble finding the target vs. Lomachenko's crafty defense. Even if Rigondeaux is able to land punches, one has to wonder how effective the punching power of a career super bantamweight will be vs. a bigger fighter who has never been knocked down in his professional career and has only been knocked down once in 397 amateur fights. Rigondeaux, on the other hand, has been knocked down four times across three fights at 122 lbs vs. smaller fighters with less power than Lomachenko.

At Madison Square Garden in New York City Lomachenko and his engaging, crowd-pleasing style will be the clear fan favorite vs. Rigondeaux and his low-volume, defensively-oriented tactics, which have been criticized by numerous boxing observers as "boring." Note that the pro-Lomachenko crowd and Lomachenko's fan-friendly ring style - complete with aggressive, accurate, and clean power punching that judges tend to favor - stand a good chance of creating a scoring bias in favor of Lomachenko if the fight is close and competitive. (In other words, I think it will be difficult for Rigondeaux to win this fight on the judges' scorecards unless he completely dominates Lomachenko.)

Lomachenko is younger (by 8 years) than the 37-year old Rigondeaux and is the more ambitious fighter - as evidenced by his willingness to take on elite fighters like Rigondeaux so early in his professional career; every fight he's fought since his first professional fight has been a major world title fight vs. a solid opponent. Rigondeaux comes into Saturday's matchup as an underappreciated 3-1 underdog who feels he has a lot to prove but I think Lomachenko is the more determined, ambitious fighter fighting to establish a legacy that will perhaps render him one of the great fighters of this (or any) generation; an impressive performance vs. Rigondeaux would go a long way towards building that legacy. 

Why Guillermo Rigondeaux will win

Like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine has him ranked #4, while ESPN has him at #7). Also like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has an impressive amateur boxing pedigree that includes two Olympic gold medals and multiple international amateur championships. In his professional career, Rigondeaux is undefeated (17-0) and is the current WBA super bantamweight champion of the world.

Rigondeaux arguably hasn't even come close to losing a fight since turning pro in 2009 and he hasn't lost a fight as an amateur or pro since 2003.

As excellent and highly regarded as Lomachenko is, many actually consider Rigondeaux to be the superior boxer overall. Hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach, who trained Rigondeaux early in his career, noted that Rigondeaux was "the best counter puncher" and "probably the greatest talent" he'd ever seen. Indeed, Rigondeaux is universally regarded as a master counter puncher with superior hand speed and punching power to that of Lomachenko's (though it remains to be seen how well Rigondeaux's very underrated power carries up two weight classes to super featherweight). Rigondeaux's counter punching is particularly effective to the body, where he's been able to land his powerful straight left with regularity vs. most opponents. Regardless of size advantage - if Rigondeaux can land even some of those body shots vs. Lomachenko, it will likely go a long way towards wearing Lomachenko down by the latter rounds of the fight.

While Lomachenko is the bigger guy who will come into the ring with a size and weight advantage Saturday night, it remains to be seen how effective Lomachenko will actually be in imposing his size on Rigondeaux. While he's certainly a skilled pressure fighter, Lomachenko has never been known as a particularly physical fighter - he's always relied much more on crafty movement, speed, and accuracy than physically imposing himself on his opponent with size and brute strength. So how valuable will Lomachenko's size advantage really be in this matchup?

Well-schooled in the highly-respected Cuban amateur boxing system, Rigondeaux is an extremely efficient, accurate counter puncher who might have the best defense in the entire sport with his excellent footwork and vertical/lateral elusiveness. Rigondeaux's 2.5-inch reach advantage over Lomachenko should enhance Rigondeaux's ability to counter punch from distance and elude Lomachenko's pressure.

One should also expect Rigondeaux's rare combination of hand speed, punching power (in both hands), and accuracy to at least somewhat stymie Lomachenko's attack. Rigondeaux has a history of freezing even highly-regarded opponents with precise counter punching. Remember that in 2013, Rigondeaux entered his fight with then-WBO super bantamweight champion Nonito Donaire - who had not lost a fight in over 12 years and was considered by most to be one of the top five boxers in the sport pound-for-for-pound at the time - as a 2-1 underdog. In that fight Rigondeaux put up probably the best performance of his professional career, ending Donaire's 30-fight win streak by outclassing him with timely counter punching and speed - dominating the fight despite Donaire's advantages in size and power. In his fight immediately following the Donaire fight, Rigondeaux similarly stymied former two-time IBF bantamweight champion Joseph Agbeko - a fight in which a normally tough and high-volume Agbeko landed only 48 punches over the course of 12 rounds (the second fewest punches landed over 12 rounds in the 32-year history of CompuBox-tracked fights).

Rigondeaux's relative inactivity in recent years (he's fought only four times over the past three years) may actually work as an advantage; given his lack of ring activity and cautious, defensively-oriented style, Rigondeaux has suffered very little wear-and-tear over the course of his 18-fight professional career. For a 37-year old fighter past his athletic prime, he is relatively fresh and has shown zero signs of slippage in speed or power in any of his recent fights.

Despite having fought only 18 career fights as a pro, Rigondeaux also has a slight advantage in professional boxing experience over Lomachenko, who is fighting in his 11th fight as only a 4th-year pro. A large part of the reason Lomachenko lost to a less-skilled Salido in 2014 was Salido's significant advantage in experience. Lomachenko has gained experience and has become a better fighter in the 3.5 years since that loss but Rigondeaux is infinitely more skilled than Salido and will be by far the toughest, most skilled opponent Lomachenko has fought (and likely will fight, regardless of who he faces in the future) in his career.   

This is the biggest fight of Rigondeaux's career. Coming into this fight as a significant underdog vs. a heavily glorified opponent and having taken a lot of criticism throughout his career for his inactivity and risk-averse style, Rigondeaux has a lot to prove. In the previous biggest fight of his career (vs. Donaire), Rigondeaux put up a technical masterpiece vs. a bigger, stronger opponent in what was probably the most brilliant performance of his career. He will surely be (highly) motivated to do the same Saturday night vs. Lomachenko.

Prefight Analysis

Given the elite pedigree and skills - as well as solid punching power - of both boxers, this is a fight that could end a number of possible different ways.

Despite being a significant underdog, Rigondeaux is the more experienced, quicker, and arguably the better overall skilled fighter (particularly from a defensive standpoint) in this matchup. Though he's the smaller fighter, he may also actually be the more dangerous puncher (at least in terms of one-punch knockout power). Unlike Lomachenko, Rigondeaux has never lost a fight in his professional carer (and has never really even come close to losing a fight) and has a history of making even well-respected, top-level opponents look mediocre (see his fights vs. former world champions Donaire and Agbeko).

There should be no surprise whatsoever if Rigondeaux is able to use elusive footwork, as well as his superior hand speed and counter punching abilities to outbox - perhaps even outclass - an immensely gifted but slightly slower and relatively inexperienced Lomachenko. And although it would be surprising, it wouldn't be a tremendous shocker to see Rigondeaux - whose punching power is often overlooked given his low-volume, defensively-oriented style - land enough clean power punches in countering Lomachenko's pressure to stop him in the late rounds. Assuming Rigondeaux's power holds up well at the higher weight class and assuming he hasn't lost much speed or power past his physical prime at 37-years old, taking Rigondeaux to win the fight at approximately +300 odds might be a decent value play.

But, at the end of the day, I see the two-weight class (8 lb) jump and size disparity to be a bit much for even a great defensive counter puncher like Rigondeaux to overcome. I see Rigondeaux facing similar challenges to the difficulties Kell Brook and Amir Khan had last year jumping up two weight classes (from welterweight to middleweight) to fight Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez. Both Brook and Khan were arguably more skilled than their bigger, pound-for-pound rated opponents and both even had success in the very early rounds, but the size advantage and power of Golovkin and Canelo proved to be overwhelming en route to brutal stoppage losses for both in the middle rounds. (And, after well over a year, neither Brook or Khan has fought again since being stopped.)

Rigondeaux is certainly more defensively skilled than Brook or Khan, and Lomachenko certainly does not have the power or the imposing size of a Golovkin or Canelo, but he has elite skill and precision - particularly shooting punches from unorthodox angles - to complement the respectable power he has. And Rigondeaux has shown a questionable chin even at the lower weight class vs. opponents with less punching power, having been knocked down four times in three of his previous fights.

Rigondeaux has a history of stymieing bigger, more aggressive opponents but at this higher weight class I think Lomachenko's size, pressure, and craftiness will be too much for even a defensively gifted Rigondeaux to handle - especially given Rigondeaux's lack of punch volume.

I don't see Rigondeaux's power carrying  up to 130 lbs as well as some might expect - especially vs. a fighter like Lomachenko who has shown a very good chin (having never come close to being knocked down in his brief professional career and being knocked down only once in a 397-fight amateur career) and is much more difficult to hit cleanly than previous top-level Rigondeaux opponents like Donaire and Agbeko with his excellent footwork and frequent body feints.

Also consider that if the fight ends up being close I'd expect the more entertaining, higher volume Lomachenko to get the nod on the judges' scorecards over a relatively low-volume, defensive-minded Rigondeaux - especially in front of what will be a decidedly pro-Lomachenko crowd on a boxing card backed by Lomachenko's promoter, Top Rank. (In other words yes, I expect boxing politics to favor Lomachenko over the relatively unpopular Rigondeaux if the fight happens to be close.)

I think there is a pretty good chance Lomachenko overwhelms Rigondeaux and stops him in the later rounds but, given Rigondeaux's defensive prowess, I think it's more likely Rigondeaux is able to survive the full 12 rounds. Given the high IQ and crazy skills of both fighters I see this fight having more moments resembling a high-level chess match - where not many punches are landed - than of a bloody brawl. But whether it's by stoppage or by decision I think most signs point to a Lomachenko victory here, so would go with Lomachenko simply to win (currently at -325 odds) as your best bet. 

I'll be at this fight Saturday night; if the matchup in the ring is even half as good as the matchup on paper, we're in for a classic given the impressive pedigree and skill of both fighters!

Prediction: Lomachenko to win

Recommended bet: Lomachenko to win (1 unit)

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Canelo vs. Golovkin: prefight analysis and betting prediction

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-1 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line:  WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles (Canelo has opted not to accept the WBC belt if he wins so that title will become vacant if Canelo wins the fight.)
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golvkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/16/17)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $3 million  (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on their share of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #8 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Golovkin: #2 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Thus far, 2017 has been an outstanding year for boxing featuring quite a few thrilling fights and long-awaited matchups between high-profile boxers. But tonight's fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin is probably the most long-awaited, highly anticipated matchup of them all. Tonight will be a matchup between two of the biggest names in boxing - both of whom are ranked in Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10 and are arguably the two best middleweights in the sport.

With Floyd Mayweather's retirement, Canelo is unquestionably the top PPV attraction in boxing right now - he's a wildly popular boxer (particularly in his home country of Mexico, where he attracts Superbowl-like ratings every time he fights) in the prime of his career with elite skills to match his popularity. The only loss on Canelo's record is to undefeated pound-for-pound legend Mayweather, but Canelo seems to have noticeably improved after each fight since that loss with seven consecutive wins, six of which came against current or former world champions.

But, including the Mayweather fight, Canelo is now faced with what may be the toughest fight of his career in Golovkin. Gennady Golovkin, the #2 pound-for-pound ranked boxer in the world by Ring Magazine, is the undefeated WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world and has won 33 out of his 37 professional fights - including 23 out of his last 24 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 89%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin looked vulnerable in his last fight - a closely-contested unanimous decision victory vs. Danny Jacobs last March (a fight which many felt he lost) - but Golovkin is still considered the most feared man in boxing. With the exception of his most recent fight vs. Jacobs, every fight scheduled for longer than 8 rounds in Golovkin's professional career (10 or 12 rounds) has ended in stoppage. Tonight will actually be Golovkin's first ever fight as a pro in Las Vegas.

On the heels of the much-hyped, entertaining, but (arguably) farcical Mayweather vs. McGregor boxing exhibition a few weeks ago, Canelo vs. Golovkin is what many would consider to be the real fight hardcore and casual boxing fans alike have been waiting for all year. Both Canelo and Golovkin are aggressive, stalking power punchers who prefer to fight from close range so this fight is virtually guaranteed to be an action-packed, intense matchup that likely won't last the full 12 rounds.

The winner of this fight will have earned by far the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have legitimate claim to be considered the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. The winner of this fight will also be the holder of at least two major middleweight title belts (Canelo has refused to accept the WBC middleweight title if he wins on Saturday night due to the WBC essentially forcing him to vacate middleweight title last year after failed negotiations with Golovkin, the mandatory challenger for the WBC title at the time) which sets up a possible unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders.

Already noted as one of the better middleweights in boxing history, Golovkin could retire tomorrow and likely be a boxing Hall of Fame inductee. Canelo perhaps isn't quite Hall-of-Fame level yet but a win over Golovkin Saturday night would make him an instant Mexican boxing legend (if he isn't already) and secure his status as a future Hall of Famer.

Why Canelo Alvarez will win

Canelo comes into this fight as a slight (+140) underdog but - like Golovkin - is widely considered one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound. Canelo is ranked the #8 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine and has been considered by the publication to be the true middleweight champion of the world since November 2015, when he beat Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision. Canelo doesn't currently hold any major world titles, but has previously held major titles in two weight divisions (light middleweight and middleweight), including being a former unified light middleweight champion  as well as being the lineal and WBC middleweight champion in recent years before (voluntarily) vacating the titles.

Canelo is a patient, but accurate and highly efficient puncher who has developed into arguably the best aggressive counterpuncher in the sport. Canelo is a technically savvy, A-level boxer with very good to great power in both hands. He throws multi-punch combinations as well as anyone in the sport (especially in terms of variation combined with power, accuracy, and deceptive hand speed) and is an excellent, committed body puncher. (Canelo's best punches are his left hook to the body and right uppercut, which have resulted in multiple TKO/KO victories in his most recent fights.)

Canelo is considered by most observers (including myself) to be the better pure boxer in this matchup. He is the higher IQ boxer, has advantages in hand and foot speed, and is the fighter more adept at making adjustments over the course of the fight. Canelo has only fought above 155 lbs twice in his career but has bulked up (in terms of muscle mass) significantly and will likely come into this fight with a size advantage vs. Golovkin, who has fought his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs.

In previous fights, Canelo has primarily had issues with slick fighters who move well and box mostly from distance (see his loss to Mayweather and his close, competitive fights vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout). He certainly won't be up against this style of opponent on Saturday; a stalking pressure fighter who will be right in front of him the entire night. Canelo has superior inside fighting skills to Golovkin, and - in multiple recent fights - has shown that he is highly adept at counter punching effectively under pressure from close range with accurate, clean power punches. One should not be at all surprised if Canelo, unlike any previous Golovkin opponent, is able to outbox Golovkin on the inside with his back against the ropes - especially given that Golovkin's come-forward, pressuring style does provide ample clean counter punching opportunities.  I expect Canelo's superior hand speed and accurate power to be effective in spots here - even against a fighter with a seemingly impenetrable chin in Golovkin.

Although no defensive wizard, Canelo is also perhaps the more defensively skilled fighter compared to Golovkin. Canelo's upper body defensive movement in particular has noticeably improved in recent years, which should serve him well defending from close range vs. Golovkin. Canelo has also shown a solid chin over the course of his career; he's never been stopped or even knocked down in any of his fights as a pro. While not bad defensively, Golovkin's defense often times is mostly his offense; in executing his pressure attack he at times gets careless in terms of leaving his hands down and leaving himself open to clean counter punching after throwing punches. Canelo almost certainly will have some success exploiting Golovkin's defensive flaws.

Canelo is still a relatively young fighter still in the prime of his career and has shown noticeable improvement in most of his fights since his first Las Vegas fight several years ago vs. Miguel Cotto's brother Jose Cotto (a fight where he was badly hurt in the 1st round). By contrast, Golovkin is 35 years old (over 8 years older than Canelo), is past his prime, and arguably showed signs of regression in his most recent fight last March vs. Jacobs - his first fight in 24 fights (spanning the course of nearly a decade) where he failed to win by stoppage. (The Jacobs fight was also a fight many felt Golovkin lost outright.)

Despite his youth, Canelo has - at just 27 years of age - amassed one of the more impressive resumes in boxing, having fought (and beaten) elite and/or high profile former world champions such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout. (This is in addition to fighting undefeated and pound-for-pound #1 Floyd Mayweather when he was only 23 years old.) In terms of elite opponents, Canelo's experience is decisively superior to that of Golovkin, who has fought tougher, pound-for-pound level opponents in his most recent fights vs. Jacobs and (an undersized) Kell Brook, but prior to that had fought at best fringe world champions that no one would've even considered ranking in the top 50 pound-for-pound.

Saturday's fight, the most anticipated matchup of the year between two championship-level boxers, will take place on Mexican Independence Day weekend in a sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in front of a largely Mexican-American and Mexican crowd that will be overwhelmingly pro-Canelo - which could influence the fight inside the ring as well as the judges' scoring outside the ring. Judges' scorecards in Canelo fights have tended to strongly favor Canelo - even in fights considered close by the general public. (See the scoring in Canelo's recent competitive fights vs. Cotto, Lara, and Austin Trout as examples.) Even in Canelo's lone career loss to Mayweather (a fight where Mayweather arguably won up to 9 or 10 rounds), one judge scored the fight a draw; so if this fight ends up being close and competitive it's more likely than not (based on previous history) that the fight will be scored in favor of Canelo. (Though low volume at times, Canelo does have a fan-friendly style complete with accurate and very clean power punching that judges often tend to favor.)

Canelo is a highly determined, poised fighter who has always been very mature for his age. He and his trainers (trainers who have made training Canelo their primary focus since he turned pro at 15 years old) will certainly be extremely well prepared for Saturday's fight, win or lose. Canelo comes across as a fighter who, aside from for his family, fights primarily for his legacy and comes across as a man who just wants (to win) this more than Golovkin. In Golovkin's last fight, Jacobs also struck me as the fighter who was more determined and wanted it more - which I think is a large part of the reason that fight was close and competitive. Canelo - a more efficient and accurate puncher than Jacobs (and arguably a better overall boxer - maybe the best boxer Golovkin has faced in his career) - just may have better results given his seemingly similar advantage in determination.

Why Gennady Golovkin will win

Gennady Golovkin is the reigning WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, and middleweight champion and Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #2 boxer in the world (behind only fellow undefeated boxer Andre Ward). Golovkin is undefeated at 37-0 and, with 33 KOs in 37 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage (89%) in middleweight boxing history. Golovkin has reigned as middleweight champion for over seven years and has won 23 out of his last 24 fights by TKO/KO. Golovkin is one of the better middleweight boxers in the history of the division, having successfully defended his middleweight title(s) 18 consecutive times - two wins shy of tying Bernard Hopkins' record of 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses. While Golovkin has spent his entire professional career at or around 160 lbs, Canelo is fighting only the second fight of his career above 155 lbs.

Golovkin's experience extends back to his highly impressive amateur career, which includes a reported 345-5 record and a silver medal at the middleweight division in the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Greece.

Golovkin is the most feared boxer in the sport (and has been among the most avoided boxers for a large portion of his career) for good reasons. He's an outstanding pressure fighter with excellent punching power in both hands - power generated in large part from the balance he maintains at seemingly all times (hence his 89% TKO/KO rate). Golovkin's arguably historically great power is complimented by technical savvy and underrated boxing skills - he is far from just a great power puncher. Golovkin is very accurate with superb timing on his punches and has one of the better jabs in the sport - a punch which was highly effective in his TKO two years ago vs. David Lemieux and will likely be a key weapon in his arsenal tonight vs. Canelo. (Like Wladimir Klitschko, Golovkin's jab essentially works as another power punch, with which he is also able to effectively control distance.)   

Golovkin's immense power combined with his ability to cutoff the ring effectively are perhaps the biggest detriments to Canelo's chances of winning this fight. Unlike Jacobs, who was able to have success vs. Golovkin largely due to effective foot movement and the ability to box while backing up, Canelo is relatively flat-footed and likely will not be able to evade Golovkin's pressure. Canelo is adept at avoiding punches from close distance with savvy upper body movement and a tight guard but - due to his lack of consistent foot movement - he will be within range of Golovkin's power punching for significant stretches of the fight; it's highly unlikely he will be able to elude Golovkin's accurate (and often overwhelming) power punches for a full 12 rounds. Golovkin will land clean power punches... the key question here is how well Canelo - who has never fought anyone possessing anything close to Golovkin's punching power before - takes those punches while executing his own counterpunching attack. While Canelo may come in to the fight a bit bigger than Golovkin in terms of weight, Golovkin is physically stronger and (perhaps by a much wider margin than people think) has the superior punching power. Canelo's defense is above average and has improved greatly over the course of his career, but he is limited (especially in terms of speed and his lack of foot movement) and almost certainly will (eventually) get caught with flush punching from Golovkin.

Canelo is an aggressive counterpuncher but Golovkin is - both by nature and by design - the more aggressive, relentless fighter; it is highly likely that he will both thrown and land more punches that the relatively patient, low-output Canelo. Canelo is further hampered in this regard with his noted stamina issues; he is notorious for often taking stretches of rounds off  (e.g., retreating to the corner of the ring, decreasing his punch output) to preserve energy. This is something he was able to get away with vs. smaller fighters with less punching power but likely won't be able to at middleweight vs. a stalking pressure fighter like Golovkin who perhaps has the most effective punching power in the sport. Note that even a smaller Floyd Mayweather - notorious for his cautious, defensive style and known to have hand issues that mitigate his punching power - was able to be the aggressor and effectively walk Canelo down in numerous spots during their fight; Golovkin is not as skilled as Mayweather but it's difficult to imagine a substantially bigger, more aggressive fighter with superior punching power like Golovkin being less successful in pressuring Canelo than Mayweather.  

On the opposite side of the attack, Golovkin has faced - and beaten - bigger fighters and better punchers than Canelo; both Lemieux and Jacobs have greater punching power than Canelo at middleweight and Golovkin appeared to handle their power with ease. In addition to his incredible offensive attack, Golovkin has arguably the best chin in boxing - having never been stopped or even knocked down once in over 385(!) fights as an amateur or pro. Despite winning every round convincingly, Canelo did not come close to stopping the larger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; it's tough to imagine he'll come close to stopping a fighter in Golovkin who will likely display superior defense and perform much more effectively overall than Chavez did. 

There are doubts about how good Canelo really is - do his skills really match his hype and popularity? Canelo arguably lost highly competitive decision victories vs. Lara (one judge scored the fight for Lara), Austin Trout, and even Cotto - where many (including myself) felt the scorecards should've been much closer. There is a feeling by many that Canelo is overrated and that he isn't even the best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career; when Jacobs fought Golovkin last March he (like Canelo) was also a one-loss fighter who perhaps matches up better with Golovkin than Canelo ever could due to his superior punching power, naturally bigger body frame, and ability to box effectively on his feet. Jacobs is an underrated boxer whose skills arguably match - and overall perhaps are even superior - to those of Canelo.

Canelo is a highly talented boxer with the power and counter punching skills to be highly effective vs. Golovkin but moving up - not only in weight from the 147-155 lb fighters he's used to fighting - but in levels from Chavez in his last fight to one of the best middleweight fighters of this generation in Golovkin may be a case of Canelo biting off more than he can chew.

Prefight Analysis

I do think Canelo is a live underdog in this fight, to the extent that I'd actually consider grading him as a favorite if I knew with certainty that he'd be able to handle Golovkin's power at least as well as Jacobs did last March. Canelo, who is in the prime of his career and seems to have improved with each fight, is the younger, better skilled boxer and has the elite counter punching ability inside to potentially outbox a pressuring Golovkin from close distance. Golovkin has proven that he has a fantastic chin, but he is relatively untested to the body; if Canelo can have success landing body shots inside that may be effective in mitigating Golovkin's attack. Canelo is the more accurate puncher with quicker hands than Golovkin; I fully expect that he will be able to compete in stretches with Golovkin in the early rounds, particularly on the inside. If Canelo - who has never been stopped or knocked down in a fight - can withstand Golovkin's pressure and last the full twelve rounds, history indicates that he could very well be given the benefit of the doubt on the judges' scorecards... especially given his judge-friendly, clean-punching style and the overwhelming crowd support he'll receive at T-Mobile Arena, which may also influence the judges.

With that said, I think there is a mismatch in effective power here that I think will be too much for Canelo to overcome. Canelo's chin has been solid at lower weights but Golovkin is by far the best power puncher Canelo has faced in his career, which I think will be more than enough to overcome Canelo's advantage in skill.

Canelo may be a better pure boxer than Golovkin, but so were Golovkin's last two opponents (Jacobs and Kell Brook last September). Like Canelo, Brook was a pound-for-pound ranked, big fighter for his weight division with elite skills who moved up in weight to challenge for Golovkin's middleweight titles. Brook - who I believe is a better boxer than Canelo - arguably outboxed Golovkin in the early rounds but got overwhelmed by Golovkin's power, forcing his corner to stop the fight in the 5th round.

As mentioned previously Golovkin struggled for portions of his fight vs. Jacobs but Jacobs, in my opinion, is a very underrated boxer who had the size, foot speed, and power as a true middleweight
to give Golovkin problems. Jacobs was also able to confuse Golovkin by giving him different looks (i.e., switching from orthodox to southpaw stance and vice-versa) at times during the fight. Unlike Jacobs, Canelo doesn't have the speed to elude Golovkin's pressure for twelve rounds and I doubt he has the power at middleweight (that he had at light middleweight and welterweight) to pose a real threat to a fighter in Golovkin who is arguably the best middleweight of this generation.

I also expect Canelo's noted issues with stamina to be a severe detriment vs. a stalking, pressure fighter like Golovkin; Canelo won't have the opportunities tonight that he's had in lower weight classes or vs. less-skilled opponents to conserve energy by taking breaks during rounds. Canelo's recent gain in muscle mass may also negatively affect his stamina, not to mention lessen the solid hand speed he's displayed at lower weights.

Given the power discrepancy in this matchup, along with Canelo's flat-footed boxing style and questionable stamina, I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Golovkin by TKO/KO. If Canelo can't escape Golovkin's range and is unable to withstand his power, he doesn't stand much of a chance over the course of twelve rounds. However, the value (at -150) is so solid on Golovkin simply to win the fight (I'd personally grade this matchup at minimum -400 in favor of Golovkin) that I recommend placing the majority of the bet on this fight on Golovkin to win, with a smaller amount on the most likely specific outcome of Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (which can currently be found as high as +160).

Canelo has been the beneficiary of generous scoring in his previous fights that have lasted twelve rounds, but note that these were generally fights where he was mostly the aggressor (most notably his controversial wins vs. Lara, Trout, and his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw). I see Golovkin's power largely dominating this fight and can't see Canelo being the aggressor for much of this fight even if he lasts the full twelve rounds.

I see Golovkin's power vs. Canelo's largely flat-footed style possibly being a bigger mismatch than what people are expecting (to the extent that this *could* end up being a very easy fight for Golovkin). But, in terms of high-profile, elite talent still at the peaks of their career, this is one of the better matchups we've seen in a long, long time so let's hope the fight lives up to the hype!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 
1) Golovkin to win (2 units) 
2) Golovkin by TKO/KO/DQ (.5 unit)

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