Cotto vs. Geale: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Miguel Cotto (39-4, 32 KOs) vs. Daniel Geale (31-3, 16 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Cotto: -620, Geale: +515 (5 Dimes, 6/6/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion; Geale: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Geale: Orthodox


Positives for Cotto
Negatives for Cotto
Positives for Geale
Negatives for Geale
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Cotto

• Current WBC and Ring Magazine champion in the middleweight (160 lbs) division. Future hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, light middleweight, and middleweight). One of the best boxers of this generation.
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Stocky, physically strong boxer who pressures well to the body; Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in boxing. Has good power in both hands - especially his left - and throws combination punches very well. Has a deceptively powerful, accurate lead jab. Cotto has won 32 of his 43 fights by TKO/KO, a higher career TKO/KO percentage (74.4%) than current notable heavy punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, and Carl Froch. Cotto's last five wins have been by TKO/KO.
• Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from inside if needed. Naturally left-handed fighter who mostly fights from the orthodox position, but is capable at fighting from southpaw stance as needed. (Is adept at adjusting his range and stance based on his opponent.) 
• Technically sound fighter who will possess a speed, skill, and power advantage vs. Geale.
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. In his most recent fight (June 2014), upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Sergio Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had lost only one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Barclays Center as the official kickoff event for National Puerto Rican Day parade week. Cotto is 9-1 when fighting in New York City, including 5-0 the week of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 7-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history. After two consecutive losses in 2012 and contemplating retirement, has rejuvenated his career (and confidence) since hiring Roach with two straight TKO victories and earning his first middleweight championship. 

Negatives for Cotto

• Cotto is 34 years old and hasn't fought in nearly a year; how will the long layoff affect his performance? Although he has resurrected his career  with a couple of nice victories, he's not the elite pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was in his prime. (Cotto's power and speed have declined a bit over the past few years.)
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Cotto often neglects head movement, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. If a rugged, high volume middleweight like Geale has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be much closer than expected.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for only the second time in his career vs. one of the best middleweights in the world in Daniel Geale, who will come into this fight with significant advantages in size, reach, and height. Cotto beat one of the best middleweights in boxing history in his most recent fight vs. Martinez but how good was his win vs. Martinez? At the time, Martinez was a 39-year old fighter well past his prime with a debilitating knee injury that clearly affected his performance (and will lead to a probable retirement in the near future). How will Cotto, who spent the majority of his career at light welterweight (140lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) fare vs. a younger, healthier, more durable opponent who will likely enter the ring at over 170 lbs on fight night? I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotto have problems with Geale's combination of toughness, size, reach, and skill.    
• Cotto is a battle-worn fighter who has been through numerous wars and has at times been tested vs. bigger fighters with good boxing skills. In front of a largely pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden, Cotto lost a clear unanimous decision to Austin Trout in December 2012. He won a close split decision victory vs. Joshua Clottey in June 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. Geale is a bigger, highly-ranked contender that is comparable to Trout and Clottey in both skill and reach advantage.
• Cotto gets cut easily due to the scar tissue above both his eyes. If the larger, high volume puncher Geale stays busy and gets Cotto's face bleeding in the early or mid rounds the blood could certainly negatively affect Cotto's performance (as well as boost Geale's confidence).
• Cotto has shown questionable stamina in the past, having a tendency to tire later in fights - most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. Cotto also noticeably tired in the later rounds in his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, losing all of the later rounds in both fights and getting stopped by Pacquiao in the 12th round of their fight.

Positives for Geale

• Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight fighter. Three-time former middleweight champion who has been ranked among Ring Magazine's top 5 middleweights since 2010. Solid high-volume, come-forward fighter with good foot movement for his size.  
• Experienced, gritty fighter with an effective jab from range but is also more than willing to stay in the pocket and exchange inside. Throws overhand rights and hooks well behind his jab. Is a good body puncher with solid overall boxing skills. 
• Geale has only lost three times in 34 career fights with two of the losses by highly competitive, controversial split decisions (August 2013 loss to Darren Barker and May 2009 loss to Anthony Mundine). Has fought and beaten solid competition, including a split decision victory vs. then middleweight champion Felix Sturm in Sturm's home country of Germany and a unanimous decision victory in his rematch with Mundine in Mundine's home city of Sydney, Australia. 
• Unlike Cotto, is a true middleweight and will come into this fight as the larger man with a 3" height advantage and 4" reach advantage. May weigh up to 175 lbs on fight night, which will likely give him a 10-15 pound advantage vs. Cotto. Cotto has had trouble in some previous fights vs. larger, longer fighters with good movement (most notably his December 2012 loss vs. Trout). 
• Is a durable fighter with a fairly good chin and pretty good head movement. Geale's only loss by TKO/KO was to Gennady Golovkin, the current Ring Magazine #4 pound-for-pound boxer who holds the highest TKO/KO percentage in middleweight boxing history (90.9%). Despite the TKO/KO loss, Geale exchanged effectively at times and at times made Golovkin miss punches wildly with his movement. Other than the loss to Golovkin, Geale has never come close to being stopped.
• Has good stamina, which could come into play vs. Cotto, who has a history of tiring in later rounds.
• Generally unflappable fighter who has experience beating heavily favored opponents in front of hostile crowds (see his upset victory vs. then middleweight champion Sturm, who had a 14-fight unbeaten streak before losing to Geale). 

Negatives for Geale

• Geale is an over 5-1 underdog for a reason. He is the technically inferior fighter and will also have a power and speed disadvantage vs. Cotto. Geale is coming from another continent to fight in front of a hostile, pro-Cotto fight on the biggest stage of his career vs. the much more experienced Cotto, who is used to the big stage. Cotto lost in December 2012 to a larger, similarly skilled opponent to Geale in Trout but Trout was a southpaw with quicker movement than Geale; it will be tough for Geale to overcome Cotto's speed advantage.  
• Cotto is defensively flawed but Geale is not a big puncher (only 16 wins by TKO/KO in 34 fights) so likely isn't a serious threat to exploit Cotto's flaws and stop or hurt Cotto badly.   
• Despite being a middleweight (160 lbs) title fight, the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs which required Geale, a natural middleweight, to cut more weight than usual - which he reportedly had trouble doing. Athletes (especially boxers who generally have a low body fat percentage to begin with) cutting weight below their natural size often leads to dehydration and muscle loss, which could affect Geale's stamina and overall performance in tonight's fight.  
• Like Cotto, Geale has his share of defensive deficiencies. Often drops his hands and can be slow to put up his guard after throwing punches, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also doesn't protect his body well; Geale is a competent fighter in the pocket but against a great body puncher like Cotto will probably take the worst of exchanges on the inside, where Cotto's shorter height and short punches are actually an advantage vs. a taller boxer like Geale.
• Geale is a durable fighter with an above average chin but he has been knocked down in at least five fights in his career, including twice in last year's TKO loss to Golovkin.

Prefight Summary


If you believe Cotto's surprising TKO victory last year vs. Sergio Martinez was an impressive win vs. a sufficiently able-bodied, top 10 pound-for-pound all-time great middleweight then you have little reason to believe tonight's fight vs. a lesser opponent in Geale will result in anything other than a wide unanimous decision or stoppage for Cotto. Cotto is the more experienced, skilled fighter with the power and speed advantage facing a fighter who - while bigger than he is - doesn't have much punching power and has defensive flaws that will leave him susceptible to Cotto's vicious body attack. While Geale has good movement, he is by nature often more than willing to stay in the pocket and trade punches, which will likely be to his detriment vs. the quicker, more accurate Cotto who is one of the best body punchers in the sport. If you believe this version of Cotto, who has been dominant in his last two fights since switching to trainer Freddie Roach a couple years ago, is a reincarnation of prime Miguel Cotto then there's little reason to think this will be a difficult fight for him,  

But I think Cotto is being overvalued, while Geale is being undervalued coming into this fight. The reality is Cotto is past his prime and coming off a year-long layoff after beating a 39-year old fighter in Martinez who came into the fight with a debilitating knee issue. While Cotto looked good in the fight, it was clear Martinez was severely limited due to the knee injury and even then Cotto was unable to stop Sergio until the 10th round after knocking him down three times way back in the 1st round. Cotto has fought better in his last couple of fights after the consecutive losses to Mayweather and Trout in 2012 (which left him contemplating retirement), but the reality is he does not have the same power or speed at 34 years old that made him an elite fighter in his prime.

Geale is being undervalued largely due to relative lack of name recognition and Golovkin making him look like a journeyman in his dominant 3rd round TKO victory over Geale last year (most thought Geale would put up a better fight), but the reality is Geale has been a highly regarded, top-ranked middleweight for many years. The fight with Golovkin is the only fight of Geale's career where he's been stopped; other than Golovkin, Geale's only other losses were controversial split-decision losses vs. very solid opponents in Anthony Mundine and Darren Barker.

I actually think Geale has a realistic chance to win this fight. He is a tough, savvy veteran with good foot movement who should be able to use his size and reach advantage to frustrate the defensively flawed Cotto in spots. Geale is volume puncher with an effective jab and follows up with punches behind his jab (in particular his overhand right and left hook) well. If Geale can be effective with his punch combinations and cut Cotto early (Cotto has a history of bleeding easily due mostly to the scar tissue above his eyes) the fight could potentially get interesting - especially in the later rounds where Cotto is known to tire. With his reach advantage, volume punching, and movement, Geale has the skills to box with Cotto from range but also has the size and toughness to outmuscle the quicker but smaller Cotto inside.

While I feel this is a winnable fight for Geale, I think Cotto's top-level skill, heavy-handed body punching, and speed will be too much for Geale, whose (lack of) power poses little threat as a counter for Cotto's attack. Despite Geale's reach advantage and ability to move on his feet, Cotto is faster and should be able to get inside on Geale to land the effective shots necessary to earn a competitive but clear decision victory in front of what will be a Cotto-friendly crowd at Barclays. Cotto's last five victories have actually come via TKO but Cotto, especially at this stage of his career, is no Golovkin - I don't see him knocking out a true middleweight (who will likely outweight him by 10-15 lbs by the time of the fight) who is durable and moves as well as Geale.

With this said, I do think Geale's size, movement, and reach make the current 7-1 odds for Geale to win the fight by 12-round decision a good value bet so I strongly recommend this play as a smaller hedge with Cotto by 12-round decision at 1.4-1 odds as the primary bet (both bets are available at 5 Dimes). For example if risking $100 on Cotto to win the by decision, I would hedge the play with a $10-15 bet on Geale to win by decision at 7-1 to cover any potential losses from the Cotto bet.

Either way I think this will be a good fight that will go the distance so a simpler, less risky alternative play would be to bet that the fight goes the distance (currently -120 at 5 Dimes).

Final thought is to be aware that two key questions make this fight somewhat risky to bet: 1) How will a 34-year old Cotto perform after a one-year layoff from fighting? and 2) How will the 157 lb catchweight affect Geale, who apparently struggled to make weight and hasn't fought below 160 lbs in years?

Prediction: Cotto by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Geale by decision (+714)]

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Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 2, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, WBO, and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: HBO and Showtime PPV (joint venture)
Line: Mayweather: -190, Pacquiao: +175 (5 Dimes, 5/2/15)
Estimated Earnings: Mayweather: $180 million, Pacquiao: $120 million (based on 60/40 split of estimated $300 million in revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion and junior middleweight champion; Pacquiao: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Pacquiao: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Mayweather
Negatives for Mayweather
Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered one of the top two boxers - if not the top boxer - of this generation. Has won 10 world titles across 5 weight divisions. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (47-0 record). Current WBC, WBA, and Ring Magazine welterweight (147 lbs) champion, and WBC Super, WBA, and Ring Magazine junior middleweight (154 lbs) champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive techniques make him very difficult to hit cleanly. Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather opponents land the 2nd lowest percentage of punches of all CompuBox-tracked boxers.  (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.)
• Possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands a higher % of punches thrown than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Patient counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. As great as Pacquiao's speed is, Floyd actually has superior hand and foot speed which should result in success in evading Pacquiao's power and beating Pacquiao to the punch when necessary. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Savvy, crafty fighter who is highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Will have a clear advantage vs. Pacquiao in terms of both ring IQ and technical skill.  
• Experienced veteran fighting in his 25th world title fight (over half the fights in his career have been world title fights). The majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past eight years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the last two fights vs. Marcos Maidana, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Mayweather is usually the smaller man in the fight but will come into this fight vs. Pacquiao as the naturally bigger man. Will also have a significant (5") reach advantage which, when combined with his excellent foot movement, will make it difficult for Pacquiao to land punches consistently.
• Has an excellent chin. Has only officially been knocked down once in his career, a May 2001 fight vs. Carlos Hernandez where he took a knee in pain after breaking his left hand (due to a left hook which hit Hernandez's elbow). Has been hit flush by power punchers (most notably vs. Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Maidana) but always recovered to take control and dominate the remainder of the fight.
• Mayweather's power isn't great, particularly at welterweight, but is underrated. Mayweather does have 26 wins by TKO/KO in his career and opponents generally respect Mayweather's power due to the accuracy with which he lands punches. 
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Highly effective at using veteran tricks on the inside (e.g., timely use of his forearms and elbows to push opponents off) to create space while simultaneously landing clean punches. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Even at 38 years old is still in great shape and possesses excellent stamina; fights with as much energy in the later rounds of fights as the early rounds. Generally dominates the middle and later rounds of fights as his opponents tire.
• Two of the judges in the fight - Burt Clements and Dave Moretti - have judged multiple Mayweather fights in the past and generally turned in Mayweather-friendly scorecards. For example, Clements and Moretti scored the 1st Maidana fight 117-111 and 116-112 respectively for Mayweather while the third judge had the fight a draw. In the Mayweather vs. Hatton fight (December 2007), Clements and Moretti both had the fight scored 89-81 at the time of stoppage for Mayweather (giving Hatton only one of the first eight rounds), which was wider than most ring observers scored the fight. 
• For this fight Mayweather is working with noted strength coaches Alex Ariza (the former longtime strength and conditioning coach of Pacquiao) and Memo Heredia (the strength coach credited for increasing Juan Manuel Marquez's strength prior to his December 2012 KO victory of Pacquiao). It appears Mayweather is making a concerted effort to increase his strength for this fight, which certainly poses a threat to the at times defensively susceptible Pacquiao.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 38 years old - several years past his prime - and doesn't have quite the power, speed, or legs he had when he was younger (though his power and speed actually haven't slipped as much as many think). In two out of Mayweather's last three fights (1st fight vs. Maidana and his September 2013 fight vs. Canelo Alvarez), one of the three judges scored the fight a draw. Both of Mayweather's recent fights vs. Maidana - in particular the 1st fight - were competitive fights, among the closest fights he's had since his controversial victory vs. Jose Luis Castillo in April 2002. Pacquiao is a more much more skilled, quicker, and faster opponent than Maidana so if Maidana was able to give Floyd problems, Pacquiao at minimum should have some stretches of success in the fight. 
• Mayweather has never fought a fighter with with Pacquiao's combination of unpredictability, power, and speed. There's a good chance Pacquiao's awkward punching angles and quick in and out movement will frustrate Mayweather, particularly in the early rounds as he tries to adjust to Pacquiao's tendencies. The last time Mayweather fought someone with speed comparable to Pacquiao (Judah in April 2006), he lost three out of the first four rounds of the fight. The last time Mayweather fought someone with both great power and footwork (Mosley), he was rocked multiple times in the early rounds with power shots. Mayweather will almost certainly have trouble in spots with Pacquiao's combination of good movement, power, and speed, especially considering that Pacquiao - like Mayweather - has excellent stamina and is unlikely to tire over the course of the 12 round fight.
• Mayweather is an efficient, but low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds (per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight), his fights vs. southpaws Judah and De La Hoya (where he arguably lost three out of the first four rounds in both fights), and vs. 9-1 underdog Robert Guerrero (where he arguably lost the first two rounds of the fight). Although Pacquiao has been a more cautious fighter as of late, I would expect Pacquiao to outwork Mayweather in the early rounds and wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao is leading by multiple rounds early.
• Mayweather's primary defensive technique, the shoulder roll from an orthodox stance, won't be as effective  vs. an aggressive southpaw so he likely won't use it as much as he would vs. an orthodox fighter - which should leave him more vulnerable to clean punching.
• Mayweather has underrated power but he hasn't knocked down an opponent in over 3.5 years (September 2011 KO victory vs. Victor Ortiz when he caught an unsuspecting Ortiz with what many thought was a cheap shot). Mayweather's issues with power are in part due to having notoriously brittle hands, both of which he's broken multiple times over the course of his career. Although Pacquiao sometimes overcommits and leaves himself open to clean counterpunching, it is unlikely Mayweather wins this fight by TKO/KO due to his lack of KO power.
• Although fighting in his resident city of Las Vegas and in the MGM Grand Garden arena where he has fought his last 10 fights, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Pacquiao, which should motivate Manny and could influence the judges' scoring. 

Positives for Pacquiao

• Current Ring Magazine #3 pound-for-pound fighter and WBO welterweight champion. Has won ten world titles across a record eight weight divisions. Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still unquestionably one of the elite fighters in the sport. Pacquiao still has much of the incredible hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Aggressive "in and out" ambush fighter who is adept at moving "in" on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using quickness and foot speed to move "out" of range before his opponents can counter. Highly skilled with the use of feints and other deceptive movements to keep his opponents off guard. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork; this will be the first time in Mayweather's career that he has fought an opponent with Pacquiao's unique combination of movement, power, and speed. Pacquiao has the speed and stamina to stay with the typically elusive Mayweather and the power from various angles to keep him frustrated and on the defensive throughout the fight.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in 5.5 years (9 fights - his last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has legitimate KO power in both hands. In his most recent fight, knocked down then undefeated and current WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri six times. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight. Pacquiao's key advantage vs. Mayweather will be his power and threat to hurt him at any moment of any round during the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters (e.g., Mayweather) to anticipate where the punches are coming from - especially given the speed at which the punches are thrown. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley and his most recent fight vs. Algieri. 
• Although he has adopted a more cautious style in recent fights, Pacquiao is still a come-forward, relatively high-volume fighter who will likely outwork and perhaps display more effective aggression vs. the efficient but low-volume Mayweather throughout stretches of the fight. While Mayweather has a quickness advantage and can be expected to beat Pacquiao to the punch with potshots, Pacquiao is more adept at putting together quick combinations, which could look more impressive to the judges even if all the punches don't land cleanly. Pacquiao has a relentlessness and killer instinct that Mayweather doesn't have which may benefit him on the final scorecards.  
• Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent side-to-side head and upper body movement movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly. As noted above, has become a more cautious fighter in recent fights (i.e., has shown increased discipline defensively and doesn't overcommit with punches as much as he used to) so may be tougher for Mayweather to land punches than many may think.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over the past few years? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his December 2012 fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight -  knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's November 2013 fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) And in his most recent fight vs. then undefeated world champion Algieri, Pacquiao thoroughly dominated in knocking Algieri down six times and winning arguably every round of the fight. 
• Highly experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Pacquiao is certainly at a disadvantage in terms of technical skill and ring IQ vs. Mayweather but is a bit underrated in this regard. 
• Like Mayweather, Pacquiao has excellent stamina - even well past his prime at 36 years old. Does not tire in the later rounds of fights. Five of Pacquiao's six knockdowns in his most recent fight vs. Algieri came past the 5th round and Pacquiao pulled away from. then undefeated and Ring Magazine #3-ranked Bradley in the later rounds after a fairly even first half of the fight.
• As noted above the MGM Grand Garden arena will be a pro-Pacquiao crowd; partisan crowds can sometimes unintentionally influence judges' scorecards.
• Like Mayweather has performed best in his biggest fights. Am unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big money PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 36 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last five fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (9 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers (e.g., Mayweather). 
• Pacquiao is coming into this fight vs. Mayweather as the naturally smaller, shorter man with a 5" reach disadvantage. Pacquiao has in the past dominated boxers larger and taller than him (Antonio Margarito, Oscar De La Hoya, etc.) but the larger, taller opponent with comparable speed, longer reach, and superior boxing technique he is facing in Mayweather will likely be a much tougher task.   
• Pacquiao has never fought a boxer with the speed, accuracy, or technical skill of Mayweather. The closest Pacquiao has come to fighting a boxer resembling Mayweather is Timothy Bradley, who beat Pacquiao in a highly controversial split decision in their first fight and was very competitive with Pacquiao in their rematch, particularly in the early rounds. Mayweather is faster, more accurate, more skilled, and has more punching power than Bradley so will almost certainly be a much tougher test for Manny.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Although primarily a counter puncher, Mayweather is known to sometimes turn into the aggressor and walk opponents down in the mid to later rounds once he's solved an opponent's timing (which he did with success most recently vs. the much bigger Canelo in their September 2013 fight).
• While Pacquiao's defense and ring IQ have improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style (where he at times overcommits to punches) often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his 2nd fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. Mayweather is one of the great defensive fighters in boxing history; if he can get through the early rounds not too far behind on the scorecards he's more than capable - as Marquez did in multiple fights vs. Pacquiao  - of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws and overwhelm Manny in the middle to later rounds.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Philippines when he's not boxing and, as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Philippines. Mayweather has appeared to be the more focused, serious fighter during training while Pacquiao is not always 100% focused due to outside distractions... it will be interesting to see if this plays into the outcome of tonight's fight. 

Prefight Summary

For many years I've thought this would be an easy fight for Mayweather. In Mayweather you have arguably the most dominant defensive fighter of all time - an elite technician with excellent speed and underrated power - vs. Pacquiao, an outstanding but at times overly aggressive fighter with flaws in some of boxing's basic fundamentals which include defensive holes a master boxer like Mayweather could exploit with little effort. If Marquez, a fighter Mayweather had no trouble with even after a nearly two-year layoff from the sport, could give Pacquiao all he could handle over the course of four fights (some would say Marquez won three or even all four fights) with effective counter punching and timing, then why wouldn't Mayweather - a bigger, stronger, quicker, and more skilled counter puncher than Marquez - be able to dominate Pacquiao the same way he did Marquez? Floyd's skills also compare very favorably to Erik Morales, who beat Pacquiao decisively in their first fight with accurate counter punching and timing.

But styles make fights. While not possessing the same overall counter punching skill as Mayweather, Marquez and Morales (and to some extent Tim Bradley in his competitive fights vs. Pacquiao) were *aggressive*, higher volume counter punchers who were willing to take risks vs, Pacquiao that Mayweather is likely not willing to take. Marquez was knocked down six times by Pacquiao over four fights before the payoff KO victory in the 6th round of their most  recent fight. Morales and Bradley had success counter punching in many spots due to a willingness to stand in and trade vs. Pacquiao's feared combination of speed and power. Albeit more skilled and likely more adept to counter Pacquiao's over-aggressiveness and defensive flaws, Mayweather is a low-risk, low punch volume counter puncher compared to Marquez, Morales, and Bradley. Mayweather is far less willing to stand in and exchange punches with Pacquiao - which could be to his detriment on the judges' final scorecards.

Pacquiao will likely be the aggressor in the early rounds, coming forward and throwing his usual straight lefts and combinations while the more cautious Mayweather lays back and tries to figure out Pacquiao's timing. Besides Zab Judah (who won three out of the first four rounds in his fight with Mayweather), Pacquiao is the only fighter Mayweather has fought with comparable speed to his own. Pacquiao's speed combined with his elite power and awkward punching style will likely frustrate Mayweather early, if not throughout the entire fight. There is a reasonable chance the aggressive, high punch volume Pacquiao will outwork Mayweather and make his combination flurries (whether they actually land cleanly or not) look good enough that the judges score the fight for Pacquiao. Note also that part of Mayweather's success in mid to late rounds is that his opponents often tire in the 2nd half of fights; this won't be the case with Pacquiao (given his excellent stamina) so we could see an entire 12-round fight of Manny throwing punches with the low-volume Mayweather on his back foot throwing little in return - a scenario which could very easily result in a clear decision victory for Pacquiao.

But at the end of the day I think Mayweather has too many advantages in this matchup for Pacquiao to overcome. Mayweather is the bigger, stronger, smarter fighter with the significant reach advantage, better foot movement, and overall superior skill. Pacquiao has always been able to overcome bigger, stronger fighters with his unique combination of power and speed but Floyd should largely be able to neutralize Pacquiao's strengths with his own speed, reach, and defensive skills. Like Marquez and Morales in their wins vs. Pacquiao, I see Mayweather developing a timing on Manny as the fight progresses; he will compel Pacquiao to become over-aggressive in spots and to overcommit with punches - which should provide Mayweather the opportunity to land clean counter punches. Once Mayweather figures Pacquiao out, Pacquiao will find it difficult to land punches; unlike Mayweather Manny doesn't have the skill to re-adjust to Mayweather's adjustments down the stretch. Pacquiao generally makes up for his deficiencies in technical skill (e.g., vs. technically sound fighters like Marquez) with superior speed and athleticism but these qualities will be of little avail in this fight vs. the faster, more athletic Mayweather.

If this fight comes down to a preference of styles (i.e., Pacquiao's high volume and aggression vs. Mayweather's efficient, accurate punching) one very important point to consider is that two of the judges in this fight - Dave Moretti and Burt Clements - have in previous Mayweather fights scored the fights wider than expected in favor of Mayweather, an indication that they may prefer his accuracy and precision over high-volume activity that may or may not land cleanly.

I do think this fight could go either way - especially if Mayweather is in front of Pacquiao more than expected and lets Pacquiao outwork him - but I think Mayweather will be able to neutralize Pacquiao's advantages in power and punching volume with accuracy and timing and by utilizing his clear physical advantages en route to a competitive but clear decision victory. If there does happen to be a knockout in this fight I think it's much more likely the KO punch comes from the more precise Mayweather than from Pacquiao, would be looking to knockout an opponent who has only been knocked down once in his nearly 20 year career.

In any case, we can only hope and pray this fight lives up to the unprecedented hype!!!
   

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

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Matthysse vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Lucas Matthysse (36-3-0-1, 34 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs)
Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, New York
Date: April 18, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO
Line: Matthysse -165, Provodnikov +155 (5 Dimes, 4/18/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Matthysse: #1 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov: #3 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Matthysse: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox



Positives for Matthysse
Negatives for Matthysse
Positives for Provodnikov
Negatives for Provodnikov
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Matthysse

• Former interim WBC light welterweight champion. Along with Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev considered one of the best power punchers in boxing and is considered by many to be the most feared power puncher in boxing fighting under 160 lbs. Has legitimate KO power in both hands; 34 out of his 36 victories have come by TKO/KO. Has one of the highest KO% in boxing at 85% (34 wins by TKO/KO out of 40 fights). Arguably one of the top 5 offensive fighters in the sport.
• Aggressive, come-forward pressure fighter but also has decent, underrated boxing skills. Good combination puncher who throws a wide variety of power punches (overhand rights, straight rights, left hooks) from different angles and punches effectively both to the head and to the body. Cuts off the ring very well (though vs. another pressure fighter like Provodnikov he likely won't need to cut off the ring much, if at all).
• Has lost only 3 fights in his career - a close but clear unanimous decision loss to current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia, and two highly controversial split decision losses to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (both Alexander and Judah were knocked down in those fights). These 3 losses were vs. faster, more technically skilled boxers; vs. Provodnikov Matthysse will have the advantage in technical skill and hand speed. Has beaten well-regarded former world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, and DeMarcus Corley - all by early/mid round TKO/KO.  
• Overall, is clearly a better boxer than Provodnikov - has superior technical skills, better foot movement, quicker hands, and higher boxing IQ. Will have a 3" reach advantage vs. Provodnikov and is the more accurate, precise, powerful puncher. 
• Has a decent (though perhaps not great) chin. Has been knocked down 3 times in his last 3 fights (the first 3 knockdowns of his career), but recovered well and never seemed to be in any trouble after getting knocked down.

Negatives for Matthysse

• Matthysse has shown a fairly good chin in the past but how will his chin hold up on Saturday vs. the most aggressive, relentless power puncher he's fought in his career? Matthysse was knocked down 3 times in recent fights vs. Danny Garcia and John Molina Jr. - neither of whom are nearly as aggressive or relentless as Provodnikov (though Molina has comparable power). There is a high risk Matthysse goes down again in this fight if he does not get to Provodnikov first - it will be interesting to see how Matthysse recovers if this happens.  
• Matthysse has possibly lost confidence since getting knocked down for the 1st time in his career in his September 2013 fight vs. Garcia (which was the first uncontroversial loss of his career) and has been knocked down two more times since then. Provodnikov is a fiercely determined fighter with seemingly indomitable will who has broken the confidence of top fighters (see his October 2013 fight vs. then WBO light welterweight champion Mike Alvarado).  
• Employs a fairly effective high guard defense but his aggressive, pressuring style often leaves him out of position and open to counter punching. Not a particularly fast or elusive boxer, so Provodnikov, who is also very effective at cutting off the ring, will have his opportunities to land clean power punches. 
• Can be outboxed - in particular vs. speedier, technically sound boxers who move well (see his losses vs. Judah, Alexander, and Garcia) though he comes into the fight vs. Provodnikov with a speed and skill advantage so this likely won't be an issue tonight. But Matthysse may not have the technical skill or chin to keep the high volume and effective pressure of Provodnikov at bay.
• Though in recent fights has improved his work rate in early rounds, Matthysse is known for being a slow starter. Provodnikov will relentlessly pressure Matthysse thoughout the entire 12 round fight so would not be a good idea to get down early on the scorecards in this matchup.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. High volume pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who cuts off the ring well and hits especially hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. In March 2013, knocked down Timothy Bradley - who has one of the best chins in boxing - for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight, a fight which Ring Magazine named fight of the year. Lost a close unanimous decision victory vs. then #3 pound-for-pound ranked Bradley, a fight some felt he won.
• Has lost only three times in his career - vs. Bradley, Chris Algieri (June 2014), and Mauricio Herrera (January 2011); all three losses were close, controversial decisions. Has defeated former world champions Jose Luis Castillo (most recent fight), Mike Alvarado, and DeMarcus Corley.
• Is known for having an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Is a gritty, relentless, durable fighter with excellent stamina. Won't tire in the later rounds of fights. In terms of pure aggression and power will likely give Matthysse the toughest test of his career.
• Trained for this fight with 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach, under whom he has improved considerably since he began training with him in 2012. (Though because Roach is training Manny Pacquiao for his May 2 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, Roach's assistant trainer Marvin Samodio will be the lead trainer for tonight's fight vs. Matthysse.) 
• Humble, likeable boxer from a small village in Siberia with tremendous inner strength and indomitable will to win. Physically tough but even greater mental toughness.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as sharp as Matthysse's, are somewhat underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Provodnikov comes into this fight having lost two out of his last four fights, his most recent at the hands of relatively unknown and inexperienced Algieri, who was as high as an 8-1 underdog. Provodnikov's two most recent wins were a 5th round TKO vs. a past prime Jose Luis Castillo in Russia and a 10th round victory vs. Alvarado, who has lost four out of his last five fights.
• How good is Provodnikov's chin? Provodnikov is noted for never having been knocked down or knocked out in his career but he's also never fought a true power puncher in his prime. Provodnikov's three losses (to Algieri, Bradley, and Herrera) have all been against opponents considered relatively feather-fisted. Freddie Roach admitted in interviews during and after the Bradley fight that he almost stopped the fight in the later rounds due to the accumulation of punches Provodnikov was taking; if Provodnikov was almost stopped vs. a light-fisted Bradley how will he fare vs. one of the best power punchers in the sport in Matthysse? The true strength of Provodnikov's chin will be tested in tonight's fight. 
• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his losses vs. Algieri and Bradley. In addition to having better boxing skills, Matthysse will have a hand speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's predictable come-forward approach combined with lack of speed and defensive fundamentals often makes him easy to hit. Provodnikov is more than willing to stand in front of his opponents and take punches to throw punches, which may not work well for him vs. a devastating power puncher like Matthysse, whose only losses have been vs. technically superior fighters who stayed outside of his punching range. 
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses, especially vs. an accurate power puncher like Matthysse.

Prefight Summary

I think this fight ultimately comes down to how well Provodnikov's chin handles Matthysse's massive punching power. Provodnikov certainly has a very real chance to win this fight. He cuts off the ring just as well - if not better than - Matthysse and will attack Lucas with a combination of relentless aggression and power the likes of which Matthysse has never seen before in his career. Matthysse is not nearly as mobile as Algieri or Bradley (who handed Provodnikov his most recent losses) so he will be forced quite often to stand toe-to-toe with Provodnikov and slug it out. In a brawl such as this, it is largely a matter of which boxer has the greatest punching power, willpower, and chin. Provodnikov I believe has advantages in two out of these three attributes (willpower and chin) so I think he'll have the advantage if, as many expect, this fight turns into an all-out brawl.


Furthermore, it is possible that Matthysse has lost a bit of confidence in both his chin and punching power since losing to Danny Garcia; in that fight (in which Matthysse was listed as a 1-3 favorite), he was knocked down for the first time in his career and it was the first time he failed to knock down or knock out an opponent in over four years (over a span of 14 fights). In the fight following the Garcia fight, Matthysse was surprisingly knocked down two more times by 9-1 underdog John Molina Jr., who has comparable power to Provodnikov, but is not nearly as high volume or aggressive a puncher. If Provodnikov can turn this fight into a brawl and his chin is as good as advertised, there is a very good chance he'll wear Matthysse down and win this fight by TKO/KO in the mid to late rounds.



But I think the key point in evaluating this fight is noting that Provodnikov, while credited for having a great chin, has never fought anyone with Matthysse's brute punching power before. I can't help but think back to Freddie Roach admitting during the fight vs. Bradley that he was close to stopping the fight due to the punishment Provodnikov was taking. Admittedly, Bradley has top-level hand speed so can get his punches and combinations off quicker than Matthysse but he is also notorious for being a light puncher, having only 12 KOs in 34 career fights. If Provodnikov was in danger of being stopped vs. a feather-fisted Tim Bradley, I can't help but think he will be in for a very long night vs. one of the most accurate and heavy-handed power punchers in the sport, a fighter who has taken 34 of his 36 career wins by TKO/KO.


Provodnikov's come-forward, aggressive style will frequently leave him open to clean power punching over the course of the fight. Matthysse's hand speed is a bit faster than Provodnikov's so I see his punches generally landing first (before Provodnikov has a chance to land his) and landing more accurately, given Provodnikov's tendency to throw wild punches. I think we may find that Provodnikov's chin isn't quite as unbreakable as people think after being tested tonight by one of the best power punchers in the sport. This fight will largely be a matter of who gets to who first; I like Matthysse's power vs. a relatively slow, defensively negligient Provodnikov and think he will display just enough boxing skill and movement to keep Ruslan's power at bay. If Matthysse doesn't stop Provodnikov late, I like Lucas to win a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory.


But either way this fight should be a wildly entertaining fight-of-the-year (if not decade) level match-up that every boxing fan, whether hardcore or casual, should look forward to watching!

Prediction: Matthysse to win 

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Garcia vs. Peterson: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (29-0, 17 KOs) vs. Lamont Peterson (33-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 11, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 143 lbs
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Garcia -400, Peterson +325 (5 Dimes, 4/10/15)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Peterson: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: junior welterweight champion, Peterson: #2 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Peterson: Orthodox

Positives for Garcia
Negatives for Garcia
Positives for Peterson
Negatives for Peterson
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Garcia

• Undefeated boxer (29-0) and current WBC, WBA Super, and Ring Magazine light welterweight (140 lbs) champion. Poised, patient counterpuncher with good power who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated world champion and one of the best boxers in the sport. Only 27 years old (over 4 years younger than Peterson) and currently in the prime of his career. 
• Smart, seemingly unflappable boxer with solid boxing skills and hand speed who generally positions himself well in executing his versatile attack. Overall well-rounded boxer with no true glaring weaknesses.
• Has very underrated, dangerous punching power, despite only having 17 KOs in 29 fights (58.6%). Garcia has knocked down 6 of his last 7 opponents, knocking them down a total of 10 times. Garcia's knockouts usually come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch (and happens to be one of the best left hooks, if not the best left hook, in the sport). 
• Has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top quality opponents such as Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, Zab Judah, and Lucas Matthysse. Was a significant underdog vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory in July 2012 and vs. elite power puncher Matthysse, who he knocked down once en route to a competitive but clear unanimous decision win on the Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez undercard in September 2013. In defeating Matthysse, Garcia defeated an opponent who'd just defeated Peterson by 3rd round TKO a few months prior.
• Strong, durable fighter with an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Of Puerto Rican descent (both parents are from Puerto Rico) and will be fighting in New York City, a city only a couple hours from his hometown of Philadelphia and known for its large Puerto Rican population. The crowd at Barclays Center will likely be pro-Garcia.

Negatives for Garcia

• Arguably overrated fighter whose recent wins perhaps aren't all as impressive as they appear to be on paper. In a span of a little over a year beat future first ballot hall-of-famer Morales twice and 5-time world champion Judah, but both opponents were well past their primes at the time of those fights. Most felt Garcia lost his March 2014 majority decision victory vs. tough but light-hitting journeyman Mauricio Herrera in front of a heavily pro-Garcia crowd in Puerto Rico. Has been widely accused of avoiding top quality opponents in recent fights.
• Has pretty good boxing skills but is not an elite technician and is capable of being outboxed. Has arguably been outboxed for stretches of numerous fights, including his fight with Herrera, the early rounds of his first fight vs. Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and his close split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane in February 2010.
• Garcia's nickname, "Swift," is somewhat of a misnomer; while he has good hand speed, he is a bit flat-footed. In Peterson, Garcia will be facing a technically superior boxer who moves well around the ring. 
• In executing his attack, sometimes neglects defense which can make him easy to hit. 

Positives for Peterson

• Former WBA Super and current IBF light welterweight champion. Experienced, clever boxer with a solid amateur pedigree (including National Golden Gloves championship at lightweight back in 2001). Has suffered only two losses in his career - the first in December 2009 to then undefeated and current Ring Magazine #6 pound-for-pound fighter Timothy Bradley and most recently in May 2013 to highly regarded power puncher Lucas Matthysse.   
• Technically solid, legit world-class fighter with good speed, footwork, and endurance. Adept at making adjustments during fights and generally fights better in the mid to late rounds as he wears his opponents down. Comes into this fight vs. Garcia as the technically superior boxer. 
• Adept using the jab (in particular his left jab, which is his best punch) and foot movement to control distance and outbox opponents from the outside but is also capable of coming forward and applying pressure on the inside, as demonstrated in his December 2011 upset victory over Khan to win his current IBF lightweight championship. 
• Relatively tall, lanky fighter who will enter the ring with a slight size and 3.5" reach advantage vs. Garcia. If Peterson uses his reach and sticks with his jab (a punch which gave Garcia numerous problems in his recent controversial win vs. Herrera) it could spell trouble for Garcia.
• Since his TKO loss vs. Mattysse, has performed impressively in his most recent fights vs. then undefeated Dierry Jean and Edgar Santana.
• Not a big puncher (as evidenced by his 47.2% KO ratio), but applies pressure well and punches hard enough to make opponents respect the decent power he has.

Negatives for Peterson

• Peterson has for a long time been regarded as one of the better boxers in the sport but has generally not fared well vs. top-level competition. Suffered decisive losses when stepping up in competition vs. Bradley and Matthysse and had to fight his way back in later rounds to earn a draw vs. Victor Ortiz in December 2010. Scored upset split decision victory vs. Khan in his hometown of D.C. to win the WBA Super and IBF light welterweight titles but the judging and refereeing during the fight (which included 2 point deductions from Khan) was regarded by many as highly questionable. Peterson was stripped of the WBA Super light welterweight title shortly before a scheduled May 2012 rematch with Khan due to testing positive for synthetic testosterone - which cast doubt on his performance in the first fight with Khan. Other than Khan, Peterson's best win was an 8th round TKO of former world champion Kendall Holt.      
• Questionable defense and chin. Peterson has been knocked down 7 times in his last 4 fights vs. high-profile opponents (knocked down three times in his 3rd round TKO loss vs. Matthysse, once vs. Khan, twice vs. Ortiz, and even once vs. Bradley - who is notorious for his lack of punching power). At times can be easy to hit; sometimes drops his hands during exchanges, which could leave him wide open for Garcia's vicious left hook.
• Peterson has a tendency to start fights slowly while adjusting to his opponent; Peterson can get away with slow starts vs. lesser opponents but against a higher-level opponent like Garcia the first few rounds could be the difference in the fight. 
• Has decent, but not great power, as evidenced by the fact that he's only scored 17 TKO/KO victories in 36 professional fights (47.2% KO ratio). Garcia has an excellent chin so if Peterson is going to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision.

Prefight Summary

To be honest, Peterson is probably the better boxer in this matchup. He has more experience, is more technically skilled, and will be the (slightly) bigger man coming into the fight. Peterson's reach advantage combined with his potent jab, speed, and footwork should pose major problems for Garcia, especially if Peterson stays outside and fights the patient, smart fight he's capable of fighting. Garcia has been outboxed in stretches numerous times in the past vs. opponents of Peterson's caliber (or even a bit worse) and has shown a particular susceptibility to jabs in a recent, hugely controversial split decision victory vs. Herrera (most felt he lost that fight), a fighter not as well regarded as Peterson.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Peterson, currently listed as an over 3-1 underdog, score the upset victory in a fight I'd grade him as having a 35-40% chance to win - especially if he can get through the early rounds as he tends to fight better in later rounds as he adjusts to his opponents.

But I see the combination of Garcia's sneaky power and Peterson's shaky chin being the difference in this fight. I believe Garcia, who is a patient, very solid all-around boxer in his own right, will eventually catch Peterson with his patented combinations and left hooks. Unlike Herrera, who has an excellent chin (as evidenced by the fact that he's never been knocked down or knocked out in his career), Garcia's power will affect Peterson's ability to execute his attack... especially given that Peterson is prone to applying pressure to his opponents, which should set up spots for clean counterpunching from Garcia. This, combined with the fact that Peterson is a slow starter to begin with and the fact that Garcia has time and again stepped up big in high-profile fights, compels me to give the edge to Garcia. But given Peterson's solid foot movement and the fact that Garcia isn't an overly aggressive power puncher I think it's more likely Garcia wins the fight by decision rather than by TKO/KO.

If I was betting this fight, I'd take the bet on Garcia to win by decision but the odds on Peterson to win by decision (+480 on 5 Dimes) are so attractive that I'd strongly recommend placing a smaller amount on Peterson by decision as a hedge play. Would even consider Peterson by decision as the primary play, given that +480 is an excellent price for a fighter I'd grade as having a 35-40% chance to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Garcia by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Peterson by decision (+480)] 

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Kovalev vs. Pascal: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Sergey Kovalev (26-0-1, 23 KOs) vs. Jean Pascal (29-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: March 14, 2015
Weight class: Light heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Kovalev -735, Pascal +590 (5 Dimes, 3/14/15)
Purse: Kovalev: $3.24 million, Pascal: $2.76 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Kovalev: #1 ranked light heavyweight, Pascal: #3 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Kovalev: Orthodox, Pascal: Orthodox
Referee: Luis Pabon

Positives for Kovalev
Negatives for Kovalev
Positives for Pascal
Negatives for Pascal
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (26-0-1) and current unified WBA Super, IBF, and WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round of an August 2011 fight.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. Is coming off the best win of his career in a wide unanimous decision victory vs. all-time great Bernard Hopkins last November. 31 years old and currently in the prime of his career. 
• Is up there with Gennady Golovkin as one of the most feared men in boxing. Out of his 26 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by TKO/KO. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.) In 27 fights only four fighters have gone more than four rounds vs. Kovalev, with only one (Hopkins) going more than eight rounds. 
• Although known primarily as a power puncher Kovalev has underrated boxing skills, as shown in his most recent fight where he outboxed and thoroughly dominated a master class boxer in Hopkins. (The loss was by far the most lopsided loss in Hopkins' career.) Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fights vs. Hopkins and Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport. Cuts off the ring well and will be the technically superior boxer vs. Pascal.
• Kovalev is the slightly younger, naturally bigger, stronger, and taller fighter with a longer reach in this matchup vs. Pascal.  
• Kovalev doesn't have quite the top-level experience Pascal has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. Kovalev's most recent fight was a dominant victory vs. Hopkins, an all-time great who at the time was the unified WBA Super and IBF light heavyweight champion. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents prior to Hopkins was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world light heavyweight champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't quite at the level of Pascal, who has fought top-level opponents such as Carl Froch, Chad Dawson, Bernard Hopkins (twice), and Lucian Bute. Kovalev has yet to face an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism.  
• Kovalev has only gone past eight rounds once in his professional career (his most recent fight vs. Hopkins), and has only been past the fourth round five times. While Kovalev fought very well in the late rounds of his most recent fight vs. Hopkins, Kovalev's stamina and ability remain untested in later rounds vs. an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism so will be interesting to see how he fares if this fight goes into later rounds. 
• Kovalev possesses average speed; he will be at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage vs. Pascal.
• Kovalev's chin is still a question mark; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including a recent (August 2014) fight vs. Blake Caparello. In Pascal he will be fighting arguably the strongest fighter he's faced in his career - a fighter who, like Kovalev, has very good power in both hands. Kovalev has been knocked down and/or hurt multiple times in his career by opponents with less power than Pascal.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is somewhat flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in him dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Pascal will likely try to take advantage of. Unlike Hopkins, Pascal has solid counter punching power in both hands that Kovalev will have to respect. If Pascal wins the fight it will likely be due in large part to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes with this power, combined with good movement and hand speed (though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power). 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter. Pascal is a fairly good fighter from the inside; it'll be interesting to see if Pascal is successful at getting inside and using his advantages in athleticism and hand speed to outwork Kovalev from inside and limit Kovalev's power from range.

Positives for Pascal

• Former WBC, Lineal, and Ring Magazine light heavyweight champion and currently ranked the Ring Magazine #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Very good KO power in both hands (though Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%)). Looked impressive in his most recent full fight vs. former super middleweight champion Lucian Bute.
• Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against. This could be an effective style vs. a slower, somewhat defensively flawed Kovalev.
• Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantages vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Kovalev. Has good elusiveness with his speed and mobility.
• Possesses an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or been in danger of getting stopped in his career.
• Experienced boxer who has already fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Lucian Bute, Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. (Pascal is a respectable 2-2-1 vs. these opponents, with the two losses being very close, competitive fights.) Pascal has fought in seven world title fights, his first before Kovalev even turned pro.  
• Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011). 
• Fast starter who usually gets out to early leads in fights.  
• Will be fighting in his (adopted) hometown of Montreal, Quebec in Canada; the vast majority of the crowd will be rooting for Pascal. 
• Has shown noticeable improvement since hiring boxing great Roy Jones Jr. to assist with training. Is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach. Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).

Negatives for Pascal

• Will be at a disadvantage vs. Kovalev in terms of overall boxing IQ, technical skill, and power. Most recent loss was to Hopkins, who Kovalev dominated by winning every round on all three judges' scorecards. Pascal's primary advantage will be his hand speed and mobility, but Kovalev already decisively beat a comparably quick and elusive fighter in his most recent fight vs. Hopkins. Pascal often throws wild, inaccurate punches which could put Kovalev in great position to land precise, potentially fight-ending counter punches.
• Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). Pascal is already 32 years old; the injuries could persist or even get worse in future fights as Pascal gets older (including tonight's fight). 
• In large part due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Has only fought 3 times since 2012, with his last fight in December 2014 ending in a no contest decision after less than two rounds. 
• Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
• Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
• Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).

Prefight Summary

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kovalev have a fight on his hands early. He's facing a confident, fearless, and aggressive fighter in Pascal who likes to jump on top of his opponents early and get out to a fast start. Pascal is a very strong, physical boxer who will have a decisive speed advantage. If Pascal moves well and uses his speed he could have success vs. the slower Kovalev in many spots; he certainly has at least a puncher's chance as Kovalev has, in the recent past, been knocked down and/or hurt by fighters with less skill and power than Pascal.

But beyond that obligatory puncher's chance, I don't give Pascal much of a chance to win this fight. Pascal has a great chin - having never been knocked down in his career - but he's never faced a fighter with punching power anywhere near the power of Kovalev's. Like Hopkins before him, I see Pascal tasting Kovalev's power early and then becoming increasingly tentative throughout the rest of the fight as he tries to avoid Kovalev's punches. Pascal is a pressure-dependent ambush fighter who, despite having good speed, does not fight well when backing up; Pascal's normal game plan of jumping in on his opponents from the outside will be severely limited once he feels Kovalev's power and after Kovalev increasingly applies pressure on a stamina-deficient Pascal over the course of the fight.

I think the most likely result for this fight is Kovalev by mid-round TKO/KO but will give Pascal's chin enough respect to consider a wide unanimous decision by Kovalev as also a very good possibility. In either case, I fully expect Kovalev to win this fight easily; a win here vs. Pascal will cement Kovalev's status as the best light heavyweight boxer in the world and should further propel Kovalev up the pound-for-pound rankings. 

Prediction: Kovalev to win 

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Broner vs. Molina: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (29-1, 22 KOs) vs. John Molina Jr. (27-5, 22 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Broner -650, Molina +535 (5 Dimes, 3/7/15)
Purse: Broner: $1.25 million, Molina: $450,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: #7 ranked welterweight, Molina: Not ranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Molina: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd


Positives for Broner
Negatives for Broner
Positives for Molina
Negatives for Molina
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Broner

• Former 3-time world champion in three different weight divisions (super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). At 23 years old, was the youngest boxer in history to be a world champion in three different divisions when he won the WBA welterweight championship vs. Paulie Malignaggi in 2013. Has been ranked as high as #6 in the Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound rankings. A top-level talent with the potential for a hall-of-fame career.
• 25-year old fighter in the prime of his career with excellent agility and hand speed combined with very good power. Slick, skilled technician who is adept with both counter punching and come-forward aggression. Good at cutting off the ring vs. opponents.
• Has a 29-1 record, with his lone loss being a December 2013 unanimous decision loss to Marcos Maidana. Has defeated former world champions such as Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Antonio DeMarco, and Gavin Rees - all tougher and more skilled opponents than Molina. In defeating DeMarco, defeated the then #1 lightweight contender who had beat Molina by 1st round TKO a couple months earlier in September 2012.
• Is low-volume at times, but is a very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands (22 of his 29 wins have come by KO.) Has an effective jab and is a very good combination puncher.
• Despite his showing vs. Maidana, has overall solid defensive skills. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Slips and rolls punches fairly well in the pocket and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. 
• Very good at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
• Is by far the superior athlete in this fight with superior technical skills and boxing IQ. Has the ability to make technical adjustments in the ring over the course of a fight. Precise puncher with much quicker reflexes than Molina so should be able to consistently beat Molina to the punch.
• Although he has frequently displayed immature antics both inside and outside the ring, Broner appears to have matured and noticeably toned down his antics in recent months.

Negatives for Broner

•  Has been exposed as a possibly overrated boxer in recent fights. Although he's beaten multiple former world champions, Broner may not be ready to contend vs. true top-level competition. In Broner's toughest test, he was decisively beaten (including getting knocked down twice) by Marcos Maidana, a pressure fighter with very good power but somewhat limited boxing skill relative to Broner. Molina is also a pressure fighter with very good power and limited boxing skill; if Broner doesn't use his feet he could get caught the same way he was caught multiple times vs. Maidana. In addition to the Maidana loss was unimpressive in both his May 2014 unanimous decision victory vs. Carlos Molina (where a knockout was expected) and his surprisingly close (though entertaining) unanimous decision victory vs. Emmanuel Taylor last September.    
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (Given his issues with fitness and making weight, Broner's low volume may be indicative of a stamina problem.) In five of Broner's last six fights, Broner has fallen behind in early rounds - even against clearly inferior competition.
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's resulting lack of mobility makes it easier for opponents to exert pressure and land scoring punches against him, even if those punches aren't landing cleanly.  
• Broner has fairly good defensive skills, but his defense does contain flaws, as clearly seen in his loss vs. Maidana. Broner is flat-footed and prefers to block punches with his hands and high guard rather than utilize foot movement. Broner's somewhat stationary defensive style provided ample opportunity for a power puncher like Maidana (and perhaps a power puncher like Molina in tonight's fight) to tee off and land big shots. Molina was able to catch heavily favored and previously undefeated fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey - both of whom are more mobile than Broner - late in fights to win by TKO/KO so could conceivably catch Broner as well. 
• Broner's power at lighter weights hasn't carried up to the junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147) divisions. Broner scored a TKO/KO victory in 22 out of his first 27 fights when fighting below 140 lbs (including a stretch of 16 out of 17 fights by TKO/KO) but has not scored a victory by TKO/KO in any of his last four fights, which have all been fought at 140 or 147. Molina is a big junior welterweight with a good chin, so tough to envision Broner getting the TKO/KO victory here.
• Has shown a lack of discipline in certain aspects of the fight game. Is generally overweight and out-of-shape when not training for fights, which often results in him having trouble making weight. (Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights, including tonight's fight vs. Molina.) He's displayed unprofessional and immature behavior both inside and outside the ring and at times has even ignored his corner's instructions (most notably after falling behind on the scorecards vs. Maidana).  

Positives for Molina

• Former WBC USNBC and WBO NABO lightweight champion. Relatively tall, lanky pressure fighter with very good power in both hands - especially his right hand which has single-handedly earned him late round TKO/KO victories vs. heavily favored opponents who decisively outboxed him in the earlier rounds. 22 out of Molina's 27 wins (including his last 14 wins) have come by TKO/KO. Is a big boxer for 140 lbs and will have a size, height, and reach advantage vs. Broner.
• Patient, low-volume brawler; prefers to block his opponents' punches with his high guard from the inside and counter punch with power shots. Is selective with his punches but has legitimate one-punch KO power. Good body puncher who loops his punches from unpredictable angles. (Broner's lone loss was to Maidana who, like Molina, is a come-forward power punching brawler who can throw punches, in particular the overhand right, from unpredictable angles.)
• Despite having 5 losses on his record (including his last two fights) and having never won a world title, Molina is a respected and feared lighweight due to his punching power. Molina's signature punch is his overhand right, but he also has a devastating left hook. Used his punching power to shock previously undefeated and heavily favored fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey in late rounds, as well as knock down highly regarded lightweight Lucas Matthysse twice in a thrilling fight that won nearly every Fight of the Year award for 2014. 
• Durable fighter with a good chin and very good stamina. One of only five fighters (out of 39) to make either it into the 11th round or last the entire fight vs. Matthysse.
• Determined boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Coming off of two straight losses, will be highly motivated to win this fight and retain his status as a spoiler for top-level opposition. Molina has considered retirement in the recent past and knows that a loss here could be the beginning of the end for his career.

Negatives for Molina

• There is a reason why Molina is not a ranked junior welterweight and has never won a world title. Skillwise, Molina is a limited fighter - a one dimensional brawler with slow reflexes, low boxing IQ, and lack of solid fundamentals likely attributable to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 17. Molina has consistently been outboxed by even decent B-level fighters, with his best wins coming as a result of what could be considered lucky punches in the late rounds of fights his opponents got complacent in due to being way ahead on the scorecards. Broner will be the most skilled and talented fighter Molina has fought in a career where he's already lost decisively to lesser fighters. 
• Has lost four out of his last seven fights, including his last two - all vs. opponents not as skilled as Broner. Molina's lone title fight was a first round TKO loss in September 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, an opponent Broner defeated two months later by 8th round TKO.
• Some will point to Broner's loss to Maidana as a possible blueprint for Molina pulling of the upset vs. Broner. Like Maidana, Molina is also an aggressive power puncher. Molina, however, is a low-volume counter puncher (in contrast to Maidana's high volume, lead puncher style) and is not nearly as skilled as Maidana.
• Molina is a defensively suspect brawler who, due to slow hand speed and reflexes, is generally easy to hit and beat to the punch. Although he's only been a pro for 9 years, at 31 years old Molina has been in some brutal wars (most notably the Matthysse fight) that have likely taken a physical toll on him. 31 isn't necessarily old but the boxing lifespan of a brawler with limited defense is generally much shorter than the lifespan of other boxers. 
• Although Molina has a good chin, he has been stopped twice in the past 2.5 years. The stoppages came at the hands of the two best opponents Molina has fought to date - DeMarco and Matthysse. 

Prefight Summary

John Molina has a puncher's chance in every fight he's in. Despite his limited skill, Molina did find a way to stay very competitive last year in his thriller vs. Lucas Matthysse, one of the most feared power punchers in boxing. He did find a way to beat heavily-favored blue-chip contenders Mickey Bey (the current IBF lightweight champion of the world and considered by many the best fighter under the Mayweather Promotions imprint other than Floyd himself) and Hank Lundy by TKO/KO in the late rounds of fights he was losing decisively. Both Bey and Lundy utilize foot movement more than the relatively flat-footed Broner, who is often content to stay in the pocket within range of his opponent to pick off punches. Broner has quicker reflexes and better defense than Bey or Lundy but if Molina can land the right shot (i.e., land one of his flush overhand rights on Broner), then Molina could be well on his way to replicating Maidana's upset of Broner in 2013 and scoring by far the biggest win of his career on primetime national TV. I actually think Molina would be well served to take risks in this fight with the intent of knocking Broner out; Molina has a good chin and was able to last 11 rounds vs. the most feared puncher at 140 lbs in Matthysse so I'd expect he'll be able to go the distance vs. Broner, whose power hasn't translated nearly as much at 140 lbs as it had in lower weight divisions.

Despite the threat of Molina's power, the disparity in talent, speed, and skill between Broner and Molina is just too much to overlook. Molina has been thoroughly outboxed by much lesser boxers than Broner; I see no reason why - other than a lucky punch from Molina - an A-level talent such as Broner wouldn't be able to dominate Molina the same way solid B-level boxers generally have. Especially with the speed disparity, I don't see a low-volume puncher like Molina catching Broner, even with Broner's flat-footed tendencies. I see Broner easily picking off Molina's shots and countering with precise power shots of his own that, over the course of several rounds, could even result in a surprising stoppage.

But, given Molina's sturdy chin and the fact that Broner's knockout power in lower weight divisions hasn't translated well to higher weights, I like Broner by wide unanimous decision. The only thing preventing Broner from an easy victory here is the same sort of carelessness defensively Molina was able to take advantage of late in his fights vs. Bey and Lundy.

Prediction: Broner by decision 

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