Matthysse vs. Provodnikov: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Lucas Matthysse (36-3-0-1, 34 KOs) vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs)
Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, New York
Date: April 18, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: HBO
Line: Matthysse -165, Provodnikov +155 (5 Dimes, 4/18/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Matthysse: #1 ranked junior welterweight, Provodnikov: #3 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Matthysse: Orthodox, Provodnikov: Orthodox



Positives for Matthysse
Negatives for Matthysse
Positives for Provodnikov
Negatives for Provodnikov
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Matthysse

• Former interim WBC light welterweight champion. Along with Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev considered one of the best power punchers in boxing and is considered by many to be the most feared power puncher in boxing fighting under 160 lbs. Has legitimate KO power in both hands; 34 out of his 36 victories have come by TKO/KO. Has one of the highest KO% in boxing at 85% (34 wins by TKO/KO out of 40 fights). Arguably one of the top 5 offensive fighters in the sport.
• Aggressive, come-forward pressure fighter but also has decent, underrated boxing skills. Good combination puncher who throws a wide variety of power punches (overhand rights, straight rights, left hooks) from different angles and punches effectively both to the head and to the body. Cuts off the ring very well (though vs. another pressure fighter like Provodnikov he likely won't need to cut off the ring much, if at all).
• Has lost only 3 fights in his career - a close but clear unanimous decision loss to current undefeated lightweight champion Danny Garcia, and two highly controversial split decision losses to Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (both Alexander and Judah were knocked down in those fights). These 3 losses were vs. faster, more technically skilled boxers; vs. Provodnikov Matthysse will have the advantage in technical skill and hand speed. Has beaten well-regarded former world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, and DeMarcus Corley - all by early/mid round TKO/KO.  
• Overall, is clearly a better boxer than Provodnikov - has superior technical skills, better foot movement, quicker hands, and higher boxing IQ. Will have a 3" reach advantage vs. Provodnikov and is the more accurate, precise, powerful puncher. 
• Has a decent (though perhaps not great) chin. Has been knocked down 3 times in his last 3 fights (the first 3 knockdowns of his career), but recovered well and never seemed to be in any trouble after getting knocked down.

Negatives for Matthysse

• Matthysse has shown a fairly good chin in the past but how will his chin hold up on Saturday vs. the most aggressive, relentless power puncher he's fought in his career? Matthysse was knocked down 3 times in recent fights vs. Danny Garcia and John Molina Jr. - neither of whom are nearly as aggressive or relentless as Provodnikov (though Molina has comparable power). There is a high risk Matthysse goes down again in this fight if he does not get to Provodnikov first - it will be interesting to see how Matthysse recovers if this happens.  
• Matthysse has possibly lost confidence since getting knocked down for the 1st time in his career in his September 2013 fight vs. Garcia (which was the first uncontroversial loss of his career) and has been knocked down two more times since then. Provodnikov is a fiercely determined fighter with seemingly indomitable will who has broken the confidence of top fighters (see his October 2013 fight vs. then WBO light welterweight champion Mike Alvarado).  
• Employs a fairly effective high guard defense but his aggressive, pressuring style often leaves him out of position and open to counter punching. Not a particularly fast or elusive boxer, so Provodnikov, who is also very effective at cutting off the ring, will have his opportunities to land clean power punches. 
• Can be outboxed - in particular vs. speedier, technically sound boxers who move well (see his losses vs. Judah, Alexander, and Garcia) though he comes into the fight vs. Provodnikov with a speed and skill advantage so this likely won't be an issue tonight. But Matthysse may not have the technical skill or chin to keep the high volume and effective pressure of Provodnikov at bay.
• Though in recent fights has improved his work rate in early rounds, Matthysse is known for being a slow starter. Provodnikov will relentlessly pressure Matthysse thoughout the entire 12 round fight so would not be a good idea to get down early on the scorecards in this matchup.

Positives for Provodnikov

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. High volume pressure fighter with an excellent punch. Superb inside boxer who cuts off the ring well and hits especially hard to the body. Has the ability to knockout any opponent at any time. In March 2013, knocked down Timothy Bradley - who has one of the best chins in boxing - for the first time in his career in the 12th round of their fight, a fight which Ring Magazine named fight of the year. Lost a close unanimous decision victory vs. then #3 pound-for-pound ranked Bradley, a fight some felt he won.
• Has lost only three times in his career - vs. Bradley, Chris Algieri (June 2014), and Mauricio Herrera (January 2011); all three losses were close, controversial decisions. Has defeated former world champions Jose Luis Castillo (most recent fight), Mike Alvarado, and DeMarcus Corley.
• Is known for having an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Is a gritty, relentless, durable fighter with excellent stamina. Won't tire in the later rounds of fights. In terms of pure aggression and power will likely give Matthysse the toughest test of his career.
• Trained for this fight with 7-time BWAA trainer of the year Freddie Roach, under whom he has improved considerably since he began training with him in 2012. (Though because Roach is training Manny Pacquiao for his May 2 fight vs. Floyd Mayweather, Roach's assistant trainer Marvin Samodio will be the lead trainer for tonight's fight vs. Matthysse.) 
• Humble, likeable boxer from a small village in Siberia with tremendous inner strength and indomitable will to win. Physically tough but even greater mental toughness.
• Provodnikov's boxing skills, while not as sharp as Matthysse's, are somewhat underrated. He has shown some ability in previous fights to adapt to his opponent's fighting style and make necessary adjustments.

Negatives for Provodnikov

• Provodnikov comes into this fight having lost two out of his last four fights, his most recent at the hands of relatively unknown and inexperienced Algieri, who was as high as an 8-1 underdog. Provodnikov's two most recent wins were a 5th round TKO vs. a past prime Jose Luis Castillo in Russia and a 10th round victory vs. Alvarado, who has lost four out of his last five fights.
• How good is Provodnikov's chin? Provodnikov is noted for never having been knocked down or knocked out in his career but he's also never fought a true power puncher in his prime. Provodnikov's three losses (to Algieri, Bradley, and Herrera) have all been against opponents considered relatively feather-fisted. Freddie Roach admitted in interviews during and after the Bradley fight that he almost stopped the fight in the later rounds due to the accumulation of punches Provodnikov was taking; if Provodnikov was almost stopped vs. a light-fisted Bradley how will he fare vs. one of the best power punchers in the sport in Matthysse? The true strength of Provodnikov's chin will be tested in tonight's fight. 
• Lacks speed and mobility. This was the difference in his losses vs. Algieri and Bradley. In addition to having better boxing skills, Matthysse will have a hand speed and lateral movement advantage vs. Provodnikov, something Provodnikov will have to find a way to overcome if he wants to win this fight.
• Provodnikov's predictable come-forward approach combined with lack of speed and defensive fundamentals often makes him easy to hit. Provodnikov is more than willing to stand in front of his opponents and take punches to throw punches, which may not work well for him vs. a devastating power puncher like Matthysse, whose only losses have been vs. technically superior fighters who stayed outside of his punching range. 
• Swells/cuts very easily. Could be an issue as the fight progresses, especially vs. an accurate power puncher like Matthysse.

Prefight Summary

I think this fight ultimately comes down to how well Provodnikov's chin handles Matthysse's massive punching power. Provodnikov certainly has a very real chance to win this fight. He cuts off the ring just as well - if not better than - Matthysse and will attack Lucas with a combination of relentless aggression and power the likes of which Matthysse has never seen before in his career. Matthysse is not nearly as mobile as Algieri or Bradley (who handed Provodnikov his most recent losses) so he will be forced quite often to stand toe-to-toe with Provodnikov and slug it out. In a brawl such as this, it is largely a matter of which boxer has the greatest punching power, willpower, and chin. Provodnikov I believe has advantages in two out of these three attributes (willpower and chin) so I think he'll have the advantage if, as many expect, this fight turns into an all-out brawl.


Furthermore, it is possible that Matthysse has lost a bit of confidence in both his chin and punching power since losing to Danny Garcia; in that fight (in which Matthysse was listed as a 1-3 favorite), he was knocked down for the first time in his career and it was the first time he failed to knock down or knock out an opponent in over four years (over a span of 14 fights). In the fight following the Garcia fight, Matthysse was surprisingly knocked down two more times by 9-1 underdog John Molina Jr., who has comparable power to Provodnikov, but is not nearly as high volume or aggressive a puncher. If Provodnikov can turn this fight into a brawl and his chin is as good as advertised, there is a very good chance he'll wear Matthysse down and win this fight by TKO/KO in the mid to late rounds.



But I think the key point in evaluating this fight is noting that Provodnikov, while credited for having a great chin, has never fought anyone with Matthysse's brute punching power before. I can't help but think back to Freddie Roach admitting during the fight vs. Bradley that he was close to stopping the fight due to the punishment Provodnikov was taking. Admittedly, Bradley has top-level hand speed so can get his punches and combinations off quicker than Matthysse but he is also notorious for being a light puncher, having only 12 KOs in 34 career fights. If Provodnikov was in danger of being stopped vs. a feather-fisted Tim Bradley, I can't help but think he will be in for a very long night vs. one of the most accurate and heavy-handed power punchers in the sport, a fighter who has taken 34 of his 36 career wins by TKO/KO.


Provodnikov's come-forward, aggressive style will frequently leave him open to clean power punching over the course of the fight. Matthysse's hand speed is a bit faster than Provodnikov's so I see his punches generally landing first (before Provodnikov has a chance to land his) and landing more accurately, given Provodnikov's tendency to throw wild punches. I think we may find that Provodnikov's chin isn't quite as unbreakable as people think after being tested tonight by one of the best power punchers in the sport. This fight will largely be a matter of who gets to who first; I like Matthysse's power vs. a relatively slow, defensively negligient Provodnikov and think he will display just enough boxing skill and movement to keep Ruslan's power at bay. If Matthysse doesn't stop Provodnikov late, I like Lucas to win a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory.


But either way this fight should be a wildly entertaining fight-of-the-year (if not decade) level match-up that every boxing fan, whether hardcore or casual, should look forward to watching!

Prediction: Matthysse to win 

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Garcia vs. Peterson: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Danny Garcia (29-0, 17 KOs) vs. Lamont Peterson (33-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 11, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 143 lbs
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Garcia -400, Peterson +325 (5 Dimes, 4/10/15)
Purse: Garcia: $1.5 million, Peterson: $1.2 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: junior welterweight champion, Peterson: #2 ranked junior welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Peterson: Orthodox

Positives for Garcia
Negatives for Garcia
Positives for Peterson
Negatives for Peterson
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Garcia

• Undefeated boxer (29-0) and current WBC, WBA Super, and Ring Magazine light welterweight (140 lbs) champion. Poised, patient counterpuncher with good power who has overachieved considerably in becoming an undefeated world champion and one of the best boxers in the sport. Only 27 years old (over 4 years younger than Peterson) and currently in the prime of his career. 
• Smart, seemingly unflappable boxer with solid boxing skills and hand speed who generally positions himself well in executing his versatile attack. Overall well-rounded boxer with no true glaring weaknesses.
• Has very underrated, dangerous punching power, despite only having 17 KOs in 29 fights (58.6%). Garcia has knocked down 6 of his last 7 opponents, knocking them down a total of 10 times. Garcia's knockouts usually come courtesy of his left hook, which is by far his best punch (and happens to be one of the best left hooks, if not the best left hook, in the sport). 
• Has consistently risen to the occasion to beat top quality opponents such as Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, Zab Judah, and Lucas Matthysse. Was a significant underdog vs. Khan, who he knocked down 3 times en route to a 4th round TKO victory in July 2012 and vs. elite power puncher Matthysse, who he knocked down once en route to a competitive but clear unanimous decision win on the Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez undercard in September 2013. In defeating Matthysse, Garcia defeated an opponent who'd just defeated Peterson by 3rd round TKO a few months prior.
• Strong, durable fighter with an excellent chin. Has never been knocked down or knocked out in his career.
• Of Puerto Rican descent (both parents are from Puerto Rico) and will be fighting in New York City, a city only a couple hours from his hometown of Philadelphia and known for its large Puerto Rican population. The crowd at Barclays Center will likely be pro-Garcia.

Negatives for Garcia

• Arguably overrated fighter whose recent wins perhaps aren't all as impressive as they appear to be on paper. In a span of a little over a year beat future first ballot hall-of-famer Morales twice and 5-time world champion Judah, but both opponents were well past their primes at the time of those fights. Most felt Garcia lost his March 2014 majority decision victory vs. tough but light-hitting journeyman Mauricio Herrera in front of a heavily pro-Garcia crowd in Puerto Rico. Has been widely accused of avoiding top quality opponents in recent fights.
• Has pretty good boxing skills but is not an elite technician and is capable of being outboxed. Has arguably been outboxed for stretches of numerous fights, including his fight with Herrera, the early rounds of his first fight vs. Morales, the early rounds of his fight vs. Khan, and his close split-decision victory vs. Ashley Theophane in February 2010.
• Garcia's nickname, "Swift," is somewhat of a misnomer; while he has good hand speed, he is a bit flat-footed. In Peterson, Garcia will be facing a technically superior boxer who moves well around the ring. 
• In executing his attack, sometimes neglects defense which can make him easy to hit. 

Positives for Peterson

• Former WBA Super and current IBF light welterweight champion. Experienced, clever boxer with a solid amateur pedigree (including National Golden Gloves championship at lightweight back in 2001). Has suffered only two losses in his career - the first in December 2009 to then undefeated and current Ring Magazine #6 pound-for-pound fighter Timothy Bradley and most recently in May 2013 to highly regarded power puncher Lucas Matthysse.   
• Technically solid, legit world-class fighter with good speed, footwork, and endurance. Adept at making adjustments during fights and generally fights better in the mid to late rounds as he wears his opponents down. Comes into this fight vs. Garcia as the technically superior boxer. 
• Adept using the jab (in particular his left jab, which is his best punch) and foot movement to control distance and outbox opponents from the outside but is also capable of coming forward and applying pressure on the inside, as demonstrated in his December 2011 upset victory over Khan to win his current IBF lightweight championship. 
• Relatively tall, lanky fighter who will enter the ring with a slight size and 3.5" reach advantage vs. Garcia. If Peterson uses his reach and sticks with his jab (a punch which gave Garcia numerous problems in his recent controversial win vs. Herrera) it could spell trouble for Garcia.
• Since his TKO loss vs. Mattysse, has performed impressively in his most recent fights vs. then undefeated Dierry Jean and Edgar Santana.
• Not a big puncher (as evidenced by his 47.2% KO ratio), but applies pressure well and punches hard enough to make opponents respect the decent power he has.

Negatives for Peterson

• Peterson has for a long time been regarded as one of the better boxers in the sport but has generally not fared well vs. top-level competition. Suffered decisive losses when stepping up in competition vs. Bradley and Matthysse and had to fight his way back in later rounds to earn a draw vs. Victor Ortiz in December 2010. Scored upset split decision victory vs. Khan in his hometown of D.C. to win the WBA Super and IBF light welterweight titles but the judging and refereeing during the fight (which included 2 point deductions from Khan) was regarded by many as highly questionable. Peterson was stripped of the WBA Super light welterweight title shortly before a scheduled May 2012 rematch with Khan due to testing positive for synthetic testosterone - which cast doubt on his performance in the first fight with Khan. Other than Khan, Peterson's best win was an 8th round TKO of former world champion Kendall Holt.      
• Questionable defense and chin. Peterson has been knocked down 7 times in his last 4 fights vs. high-profile opponents (knocked down three times in his 3rd round TKO loss vs. Matthysse, once vs. Khan, twice vs. Ortiz, and even once vs. Bradley - who is notorious for his lack of punching power). At times can be easy to hit; sometimes drops his hands during exchanges, which could leave him wide open for Garcia's vicious left hook.
• Peterson has a tendency to start fights slowly while adjusting to his opponent; Peterson can get away with slow starts vs. lesser opponents but against a higher-level opponent like Garcia the first few rounds could be the difference in the fight. 
• Has decent, but not great power, as evidenced by the fact that he's only scored 17 TKO/KO victories in 36 professional fights (47.2% KO ratio). Garcia has an excellent chin so if Peterson is going to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision.

Prefight Summary

To be honest, Peterson is probably the better boxer in this matchup. He has more experience, is more technically skilled, and will be the (slightly) bigger man coming into the fight. Peterson's reach advantage combined with his potent jab, speed, and footwork should pose major problems for Garcia, especially if Peterson stays outside and fights the patient, smart fight he's capable of fighting. Garcia has been outboxed in stretches numerous times in the past vs. opponents of Peterson's caliber (or even a bit worse) and has shown a particular susceptibility to jabs in a recent, hugely controversial split decision victory vs. Herrera (most felt he lost that fight), a fighter not as well regarded as Peterson.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Peterson, currently listed as an over 3-1 underdog, score the upset victory in a fight I'd grade him as having a 35-40% chance to win - especially if he can get through the early rounds as he tends to fight better in later rounds as he adjusts to his opponents.

But I see the combination of Garcia's sneaky power and Peterson's shaky chin being the difference in this fight. I believe Garcia, who is a patient, very solid all-around boxer in his own right, will eventually catch Peterson with his patented combinations and left hooks. Unlike Herrera, who has an excellent chin (as evidenced by the fact that he's never been knocked down or knocked out in his career), Garcia's power will affect Peterson's ability to execute his attack... especially given that Peterson is prone to applying pressure to his opponents, which should set up spots for clean counterpunching from Garcia. This, combined with the fact that Peterson is a slow starter to begin with and the fact that Garcia has time and again stepped up big in high-profile fights, compels me to give the edge to Garcia. But given Peterson's solid foot movement and the fact that Garcia isn't an overly aggressive power puncher I think it's more likely Garcia wins the fight by decision rather than by TKO/KO.

If I was betting this fight, I'd take the bet on Garcia to win by decision but the odds on Peterson to win by decision (+480 on 5 Dimes) are so attractive that I'd strongly recommend placing a smaller amount on Peterson by decision as a hedge play. Would even consider Peterson by decision as the primary play, given that +480 is an excellent price for a fighter I'd grade as having a 35-40% chance to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Garcia by decision 

[Recommended Hedge: Peterson by decision (+480)] 

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Kovalev vs. Pascal: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Sergey Kovalev (26-0-1, 23 KOs) vs. Jean Pascal (29-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Date: March 14, 2015
Weight class: Light heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Kovalev -735, Pascal +590 (5 Dimes, 3/14/15)
Purse: Kovalev: $3.24 million, Pascal: $2.76 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Kovalev: #1 ranked light heavyweight, Pascal: #3 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Kovalev: Orthodox, Pascal: Orthodox
Referee: Luis Pabon

Positives for Kovalev
Negatives for Kovalev
Positives for Pascal
Negatives for Pascal
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (26-0-1) and current unified WBA Super, IBF, and WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round of an August 2011 fight.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. Is coming off the best win of his career in a wide unanimous decision victory vs. all-time great Bernard Hopkins last November. 31 years old and currently in the prime of his career. 
• Is up there with Gennady Golovkin as one of the most feared men in boxing. Out of his 26 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by TKO/KO. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.) In 27 fights only four fighters have gone more than four rounds vs. Kovalev, with only one (Hopkins) going more than eight rounds. 
• Although known primarily as a power puncher Kovalev has underrated boxing skills, as shown in his most recent fight where he outboxed and thoroughly dominated a master class boxer in Hopkins. (The loss was by far the most lopsided loss in Hopkins' career.) Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fights vs. Hopkins and Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport. Cuts off the ring well and will be the technically superior boxer vs. Pascal.
• Kovalev is the slightly younger, naturally bigger, stronger, and taller fighter with a longer reach in this matchup vs. Pascal.  
• Kovalev doesn't have quite the top-level experience Pascal has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. Kovalev's most recent fight was a dominant victory vs. Hopkins, an all-time great who at the time was the unified WBA Super and IBF light heavyweight champion. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents prior to Hopkins was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world light heavyweight champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't quite at the level of Pascal, who has fought top-level opponents such as Carl Froch, Chad Dawson, Bernard Hopkins (twice), and Lucian Bute. Kovalev has yet to face an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism.  
• Kovalev has only gone past eight rounds once in his professional career (his most recent fight vs. Hopkins), and has only been past the fourth round five times. While Kovalev fought very well in the late rounds of his most recent fight vs. Hopkins, Kovalev's stamina and ability remain untested in later rounds vs. an opponent with Pascal's speed, power, and athleticism so will be interesting to see how he fares if this fight goes into later rounds. 
• Kovalev possesses average speed; he will be at a clear hand and foot speed disadvantage vs. Pascal.
• Kovalev's chin is still a question mark; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including a recent (August 2014) fight vs. Blake Caparello. In Pascal he will be fighting arguably the strongest fighter he's faced in his career - a fighter who, like Kovalev, has very good power in both hands. Kovalev has been knocked down and/or hurt multiple times in his career by opponents with less power than Pascal.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is somewhat flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in him dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Pascal will likely try to take advantage of. Unlike Hopkins, Pascal has solid counter punching power in both hands that Kovalev will have to respect. If Pascal wins the fight it will likely be due in large part to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes with this power, combined with good movement and hand speed (though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power). 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter. Pascal is a fairly good fighter from the inside; it'll be interesting to see if Pascal is successful at getting inside and using his advantages in athleticism and hand speed to outwork Kovalev from inside and limit Kovalev's power from range.

Positives for Pascal

• Former WBC, Lineal, and Ring Magazine light heavyweight champion and currently ranked the Ring Magazine #3 light heavyweight boxer in the world. One of the hardest punchers pound-for-pound in the sport. Very good KO power in both hands (though Pascal's power is somewhat underrated due to relatively low KO % (55%)). Looked impressive in his most recent full fight vs. former super middleweight champion Lucian Bute.
• Athletic, explosive boxer who prefers to box from the outside and wait for opportunities to jump in and pressure opponents ambush-style. The awkward angles Pascal throws punches from are often difficult to defend against. This could be an effective style vs. a slower, somewhat defensively flawed Kovalev.
• Has natural quickness; has had hand and foot speed advantages vs. nearly every fighter he has fought and will have these advantages vs. Kovalev. Has good elusiveness with his speed and mobility.
• Possesses an excellent chin; has never been knocked down or been in danger of getting stopped in his career.
• Experienced boxer who has already fought many of the elite fighters in his weight class, including Lucian Bute, Bernard Hopkins (twice), Chad Dawson, and Carl Froch. (Pascal is a respectable 2-2-1 vs. these opponents, with the two losses being very close, competitive fights.) Pascal has fought in seven world title fights, his first before Kovalev even turned pro.  
• Pascal has only lost twice in his career; both times to a future hall-of-famer (Carl Froch in 2008 and Bernard Hopkins in 2011). 
• Fast starter who usually gets out to early leads in fights.  
• Will be fighting in his (adopted) hometown of Montreal, Quebec in Canada; the vast majority of the crowd will be rooting for Pascal. 
• Has shown noticeable improvement since hiring boxing great Roy Jones Jr. to assist with training. Is also using Memo Heredia as his strength and conditioning coach. Heredia is noted for assisting Juan Manuel Marquez and Jorge Arce in regaining world championship titles in their 30s (most notably Marquez after his 6th round KO of Manny Pacquiao in December 2012).

Negatives for Pascal

• Will be at a disadvantage vs. Kovalev in terms of overall boxing IQ, technical skill, and power. Most recent loss was to Hopkins, who Kovalev dominated by winning every round on all three judges' scorecards. Pascal's primary advantage will be his hand speed and mobility, but Kovalev already decisively beat a comparably quick and elusive fighter in his most recent fight vs. Hopkins. Pascal often throws wild, inaccurate punches which could put Kovalev in great position to land precise, potentially fight-ending counter punches.
• Injury prone boxer who has suffered multiple serious shoulder injuries during fights (in some cases requiring his corner to pop his shoulder back in so he could continue). Pascal is already 32 years old; the injuries could persist or even get worse in future fights as Pascal gets older (including tonight's fight). 
• In large part due to his injuries, Pascal has been relatively inactive. Has only fought 3 times since 2012, with his last fight in December 2014 ending in a no contest decision after less than two rounds. 
• Has a strong chin, but defensive skills are subpar. Often fights flat-footed with his hands down, which at times allows his opponents to land effective counterpunches.
• Questionable stamina; often starts fast but has a tendency to tire and slow down by the middle of the fight (see both fights vs. Hopkins).
• Relatively low-volume puncher; has a tendency to have stretches of inactivity during fights (particularly in the middle and later rounds when he tires).

Prefight Summary

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kovalev have a fight on his hands early. He's facing a confident, fearless, and aggressive fighter in Pascal who likes to jump on top of his opponents early and get out to a fast start. Pascal is a very strong, physical boxer who will have a decisive speed advantage. If Pascal moves well and uses his speed he could have success vs. the slower Kovalev in many spots; he certainly has at least a puncher's chance as Kovalev has, in the recent past, been knocked down and/or hurt by fighters with less skill and power than Pascal.

But beyond that obligatory puncher's chance, I don't give Pascal much of a chance to win this fight. Pascal has a great chin - having never been knocked down in his career - but he's never faced a fighter with punching power anywhere near the power of Kovalev's. Like Hopkins before him, I see Pascal tasting Kovalev's power early and then becoming increasingly tentative throughout the rest of the fight as he tries to avoid Kovalev's punches. Pascal is a pressure-dependent ambush fighter who, despite having good speed, does not fight well when backing up; Pascal's normal game plan of jumping in on his opponents from the outside will be severely limited once he feels Kovalev's power and after Kovalev increasingly applies pressure on a stamina-deficient Pascal over the course of the fight.

I think the most likely result for this fight is Kovalev by mid-round TKO/KO but will give Pascal's chin enough respect to consider a wide unanimous decision by Kovalev as also a very good possibility. In either case, I fully expect Kovalev to win this fight easily; a win here vs. Pascal will cement Kovalev's status as the best light heavyweight boxer in the world and should further propel Kovalev up the pound-for-pound rankings. 

Prediction: Kovalev to win 

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Broner vs. Molina: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Adrien Broner (29-1, 22 KOs) vs. John Molina Jr. (27-5, 22 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Junior welterweight (140 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: NBC
Line: Broner -650, Molina +535 (5 Dimes, 3/7/15)
Purse: Broner: $1.25 million, Molina: $450,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: #7 ranked welterweight, Molina: Not ranked
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Molina: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd


Positives for Broner
Negatives for Broner
Positives for Molina
Negatives for Molina
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Broner

• Former 3-time world champion in three different weight divisions (super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). At 23 years old, was the youngest boxer in history to be a world champion in three different divisions when he won the WBA welterweight championship vs. Paulie Malignaggi in 2013. Has been ranked as high as #6 in the Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound rankings. A top-level talent with the potential for a hall-of-fame career.
• 25-year old fighter in the prime of his career with excellent agility and hand speed combined with very good power. Slick, skilled technician who is adept with both counter punching and come-forward aggression. Good at cutting off the ring vs. opponents.
• Has a 29-1 record, with his lone loss being a December 2013 unanimous decision loss to Marcos Maidana. Has defeated former world champions such as Malignaggi, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Antonio DeMarco, and Gavin Rees - all tougher and more skilled opponents than Molina. In defeating DeMarco, defeated the then #1 lightweight contender who had beat Molina by 1st round TKO a couple months earlier in September 2012.
• Is low-volume at times, but is a very efficient, accurate puncher with good KO power in both hands (22 of his 29 wins have come by KO.) Has an effective jab and is a very good combination puncher.
• Despite his showing vs. Maidana, has overall solid defensive skills. Adept with both the shoulder roll and high guard defense. Slips and rolls punches fairly well in the pocket and is generally a difficult boxer to hit cleanly. 
• Very good at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body.
• Is by far the superior athlete in this fight with superior technical skills and boxing IQ. Has the ability to make technical adjustments in the ring over the course of a fight. Precise puncher with much quicker reflexes than Molina so should be able to consistently beat Molina to the punch.
• Although he has frequently displayed immature antics both inside and outside the ring, Broner appears to have matured and noticeably toned down his antics in recent months.

Negatives for Broner

•  Has been exposed as a possibly overrated boxer in recent fights. Although he's beaten multiple former world champions, Broner may not be ready to contend vs. true top-level competition. In Broner's toughest test, he was decisively beaten (including getting knocked down twice) by Marcos Maidana, a pressure fighter with very good power but somewhat limited boxing skill relative to Broner. Molina is also a pressure fighter with very good power and limited boxing skill; if Broner doesn't use his feet he could get caught the same way he was caught multiple times vs. Maidana. In addition to the Maidana loss was unimpressive in both his May 2014 unanimous decision victory vs. Carlos Molina (where a knockout was expected) and his surprisingly close (though entertaining) unanimous decision victory vs. Emmanuel Taylor last September.    
• Low-volume puncher who is prone to getting out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. (Given his issues with fitness and making weight, Broner's low volume may be indicative of a stamina problem.) In five of Broner's last six fights, Broner has fallen behind in early rounds - even against clearly inferior competition.
• While Broner has good foot speed, his wide-legged stance tends to leave him flat-footed in the ring. Broner's resulting lack of mobility makes it easier for opponents to exert pressure and land scoring punches against him, even if those punches aren't landing cleanly.  
• Broner has fairly good defensive skills, but his defense does contain flaws, as clearly seen in his loss vs. Maidana. Broner is flat-footed and prefers to block punches with his hands and high guard rather than utilize foot movement. Broner's somewhat stationary defensive style provided ample opportunity for a power puncher like Maidana (and perhaps a power puncher like Molina in tonight's fight) to tee off and land big shots. Molina was able to catch heavily favored and previously undefeated fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey - both of whom are more mobile than Broner - late in fights to win by TKO/KO so could conceivably catch Broner as well. 
• Broner's power at lighter weights hasn't carried up to the junior welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147) divisions. Broner scored a TKO/KO victory in 22 out of his first 27 fights when fighting below 140 lbs (including a stretch of 16 out of 17 fights by TKO/KO) but has not scored a victory by TKO/KO in any of his last four fights, which have all been fought at 140 or 147. Molina is a big junior welterweight with a good chin, so tough to envision Broner getting the TKO/KO victory here.
• Has shown a lack of discipline in certain aspects of the fight game. Is generally overweight and out-of-shape when not training for fights, which often results in him having trouble making weight. (Broner has failed to make weight for multiple fights, including tonight's fight vs. Molina.) He's displayed unprofessional and immature behavior both inside and outside the ring and at times has even ignored his corner's instructions (most notably after falling behind on the scorecards vs. Maidana).  

Positives for Molina

• Former WBC USNBC and WBO NABO lightweight champion. Relatively tall, lanky pressure fighter with very good power in both hands - especially his right hand which has single-handedly earned him late round TKO/KO victories vs. heavily favored opponents who decisively outboxed him in the earlier rounds. 22 out of Molina's 27 wins (including his last 14 wins) have come by TKO/KO. Is a big boxer for 140 lbs and will have a size, height, and reach advantage vs. Broner.
• Patient, low-volume brawler; prefers to block his opponents' punches with his high guard from the inside and counter punch with power shots. Is selective with his punches but has legitimate one-punch KO power. Good body puncher who loops his punches from unpredictable angles. (Broner's lone loss was to Maidana who, like Molina, is a come-forward power punching brawler who can throw punches, in particular the overhand right, from unpredictable angles.)
• Despite having 5 losses on his record (including his last two fights) and having never won a world title, Molina is a respected and feared lighweight due to his punching power. Molina's signature punch is his overhand right, but he also has a devastating left hook. Used his punching power to shock previously undefeated and heavily favored fighters Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey in late rounds, as well as knock down highly regarded lightweight Lucas Matthysse twice in a thrilling fight that won nearly every Fight of the Year award for 2014. 
• Durable fighter with a good chin and very good stamina. One of only five fighters (out of 39) to make either it into the 11th round or last the entire fight vs. Matthysse.
• Determined boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Coming off of two straight losses, will be highly motivated to win this fight and retain his status as a spoiler for top-level opposition. Molina has considered retirement in the recent past and knows that a loss here could be the beginning of the end for his career.

Negatives for Molina

• There is a reason why Molina is not a ranked junior welterweight and has never won a world title. Skillwise, Molina is a limited fighter - a one dimensional brawler with slow reflexes, low boxing IQ, and lack of solid fundamentals likely attributable to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 17. Molina has consistently been outboxed by even decent B-level fighters, with his best wins coming as a result of what could be considered lucky punches in the late rounds of fights his opponents got complacent in due to being way ahead on the scorecards. Broner will be the most skilled and talented fighter Molina has fought in a career where he's already lost decisively to lesser fighters. 
• Has lost four out of his last seven fights, including his last two - all vs. opponents not as skilled as Broner. Molina's lone title fight was a first round TKO loss in September 2012 vs. Antonio DeMarco, an opponent Broner defeated two months later by 8th round TKO.
• Some will point to Broner's loss to Maidana as a possible blueprint for Molina pulling of the upset vs. Broner. Like Maidana, Molina is also an aggressive power puncher. Molina, however, is a low-volume counter puncher (in contrast to Maidana's high volume, lead puncher style) and is not nearly as skilled as Maidana.
• Molina is a defensively suspect brawler who, due to slow hand speed and reflexes, is generally easy to hit and beat to the punch. Although he's only been a pro for 9 years, at 31 years old Molina has been in some brutal wars (most notably the Matthysse fight) that have likely taken a physical toll on him. 31 isn't necessarily old but the boxing lifespan of a brawler with limited defense is generally much shorter than the lifespan of other boxers. 
• Although Molina has a good chin, he has been stopped twice in the past 2.5 years. The stoppages came at the hands of the two best opponents Molina has fought to date - DeMarco and Matthysse. 

Prefight Summary

John Molina has a puncher's chance in every fight he's in. Despite his limited skill, Molina did find a way to stay very competitive last year in his thriller vs. Lucas Matthysse, one of the most feared power punchers in boxing. He did find a way to beat heavily-favored blue-chip contenders Mickey Bey (the current IBF lightweight champion of the world and considered by many the best fighter under the Mayweather Promotions imprint other than Floyd himself) and Hank Lundy by TKO/KO in the late rounds of fights he was losing decisively. Both Bey and Lundy utilize foot movement more than the relatively flat-footed Broner, who is often content to stay in the pocket within range of his opponent to pick off punches. Broner has quicker reflexes and better defense than Bey or Lundy but if Molina can land the right shot (i.e., land one of his flush overhand rights on Broner), then Molina could be well on his way to replicating Maidana's upset of Broner in 2013 and scoring by far the biggest win of his career on primetime national TV. I actually think Molina would be well served to take risks in this fight with the intent of knocking Broner out; Molina has a good chin and was able to last 11 rounds vs. the most feared puncher at 140 lbs in Matthysse so I'd expect he'll be able to go the distance vs. Broner, whose power hasn't translated nearly as much at 140 lbs as it had in lower weight divisions.

Despite the threat of Molina's power, the disparity in talent, speed, and skill between Broner and Molina is just too much to overlook. Molina has been thoroughly outboxed by much lesser boxers than Broner; I see no reason why - other than a lucky punch from Molina - an A-level talent such as Broner wouldn't be able to dominate Molina the same way solid B-level boxers generally have. Especially with the speed disparity, I don't see a low-volume puncher like Molina catching Broner, even with Broner's flat-footed tendencies. I see Broner easily picking off Molina's shots and countering with precise power shots of his own that, over the course of several rounds, could even result in a surprising stoppage.

But, given Molina's sturdy chin and the fact that Broner's knockout power in lower weight divisions hasn't translated well to higher weights, I like Broner by wide unanimous decision. The only thing preventing Broner from an easy victory here is the same sort of carelessness defensively Molina was able to take advantage of late in his fights vs. Bey and Lundy.

Prediction: Broner by decision 

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Thurman vs. Guerrero: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Keith Thurman (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Robert Guerrero (32-2-1, 18 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: March 7, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA World Welterweight title
TV: NBC
Line: Thurman -700, Guerrero +500 (5 Dimes, 3/6/15)
Purse: Thurman: $1.5 million, Guerrero: $1.23 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Thurman: #7 ranked welterweight, Guerrero: #8 ranked welterweight
Style: Thurman: Orthodox, Guerrero: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Thurman
Negatives for Thurman
Positives for Guerrero
Negatives for Guerrero
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Thurman

• Current WBA welterweight champion. Aggressive boxer-puncher with one-punch KO power in both hands. Relatively young boxer (26 years old) in his prime who is one of the most feared boxers in the sport today. Undefeated in 25 professional fights. (24-0 with one fight back in 2009 that was ruled a no contest after an accidental clash of heads in the 1st round.)
• Power puncher with 21 wins by TKO/KO in 25 professional fights (84%), which ranks among the highest percentage of wins by TKO or KO in boxing today. Arguably behind only Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev as the most powerful puncher in boxing. Thurman has very good stamina and maintains his KO power even into later rounds, as evidenced by his late round TKO/KO victories vs. Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass. 
• Thurman's great power is complimented with very good boxing skills and high boxing IQ. Patient boxer who is adept at reading his opponents and making in-fight adjustments (as he did in his KO victory vs. Chaves). 
• Has good hand speed, footwork, and throws combinations well. Well-rounded boxer; difficult to single out his best punch as he has a wide array of punches in his arsenal.  
• Thurman is naturally bigger and stronger than Guerrero; Thurman has never fought below 147 lbs, while Guerrero spent the vast majority of his career at featherwieght (126 lbs), super featherweight (130 lbs), and lightweight (135 lbs) before moving up to welterweight 2.5 years ago.

Negatives for Thurman

•  Lacks experience at the top level. Thurman has dominated B and C-level fighters for much of his career but Guerrero will be by far the toughest opponent he's faced to date. Although he arguably won all 12 rounds, Thurman didn't look impressive in his last fight vs. undefeated 40-year old journeyman Leonard Bundu, who he struggled with in spots and failed to win by knockout against (as was expected). (The usually popular Thurman was booed by the MGM Grand crowd in Las Vegas after his performance.) Guerrero is a battle-tested, physical pressure fighter who may test Thurman like he's never been tested before.
• Suffered a left shoulder injury in 2014 which resulted in an 8-month layoff from the ring and perhaps significantly affected his performance last December vs. Bundu; the shoulder injury may still be a lingering issue for him. 
• Shows a lack of discipline at times, especially on the defensive end. Is prone to dropping his hands, which has often left him exposed to clean counter shots (most notably vs. Chaves and Soto Karass). 

Positives for Guerrero

• Former world champion (or interim world champion) in four different divisions (featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, and welterweight). Aggressive, come-forward brawler who throws a high volume of punches. 6-time world champion who, immediately prior to fighting Floyd Mayweather, was ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound top 10.
• Experienced fighter who has fought current and former world champions such as Orlando Salido, Joel Casamayor, Michael Katsidis, Andre Berto, and current #1 pound-for-pound champion Mayweather. Has a solid 3-1 record against these opponents, with one no contest. (Guerrero's November 2006 loss to Salido was ruled a no contest after Salido tested positive for steroids after the fight.) The only clear loss in Guerrero's career was to Mayweather, with his other loss coming in December 2005 via somewhat controversial split decision loss to Gamaliel Diaz (who he defeated by 6th round KO in their rematch six months later).  
• Tough, crafty southpaw who fights particularly well on the inside. Is adept at smothering his opponents and turning fights into brawls, which could frustrate a young, relatively inexperienced fighter like Thurman. If Guerrero can turn the fight into a physical, inside brawl he has the chance to outpoint Thurman with his high work rate.
• Has a very good to great chin. Has never lost by TKO/KO and has only been knocked down once in his career, a flash knockdown vs. Joel Casamayor in the last round of a fight he was winning by a wide margin. Seemed largely unaffected by flush shots from Andre Berto (who at the time was a feared power puncher) in their November 2012 fight.
• Guerrero is an underrated, skilled fighter with good fundamentals. Throws many punches well but best punch is likely his left uppercut, which he even had success with in the early rounds of his fight vs. Mayweather. As evidenced by the fact that he is a 6-time world champion in four different weight divisions, Guerrero has actually long been one of the better boxers in the sport. Has underrated power, as evidenced by the fact that he knocked down career welterweight Andre Berto twice in the early rounds of their fight in only his second fight in the welterweight division.
• Very determined, relentless boxer who fights with a lot of heart. Also has very good stamina, generally fighting with the same level of activity in later rounds as he does in early rounds, as evidenced in his most recent fight - a brutal fight of the year-candidate brawl vs. Yoshihiro Kamegai last June. Will be highly determined to win this fight to maintain his status as a big money fighter. 

Negatives for Guerrero

• Has a solid chin but his defensive skills are questionable given the frequency with which he gets hit, particularly in recent fights. In Guerrero's most recent fight vs. Kamegai, he was hit with 278 power punches at a fairly high 38% connect rate per CompuBox stats. (Overall, more punches were landed in the Guerrero vs. Kamegai fight than any other fight in 2014 per CompuBox stats.) Guerrero was also the victim of numerous clean power shots in his other recent fights vs. Mayweather and Berto. As an inside brawler, Guerrero is more than willing to take a punch in order to throw a punch, a style which may prove disastrous vs. an elite power puncher like Thurman. Has shown a particular susceptibility to uppercuts, one of Thurman's better punches.
• Guerrero is 31 years old, 5 years older than Thurman. 31 isn't necessarily old, but given some of the brutal wars he's recently been involved in (in particular the Kamegai and Berto fights), how much does he really have left in the tank? Fighters with a brawler boxing style tend to have shorter life spans (in terms of prime) than other boxers. Guerrero in recent fights has also been more flat-footed and shown signs of slowing reflexes.
• Has been fairly inactive over the past few years, having fought only five times in the past four years - including only once in 2014 and once in 2013. With the long layoffs, how will he look vs. a potentially elite fighter in Thurman?
• Guerrero is the more experienced fighter but, who has he really beaten? The world champions he's beaten are generally considered B-level fighters. Guerrero has never beaten a top level fighter (his only fight vs. an elite fighter was vs. Mayweather, a fight which he lost decisively); in Thurman, Guerrero will be fighting an A-level world champion in what will be the 2nd toughest test of his career. Other than Mayweather and Thurman, Guerrero's toughest test was a November 2006 featherweight title fight vs. Orlando Salido, a fight which he lost decisively, but was later ruled a no contest due to Salido testing positive for steroids.

Prefight Summary

While I certainly wouldn't put him anywhere near the class of great fighters of this generation (Mayweather, Pacquiao, Hopkins, Marquez, etc.), I do think Robert Guerrero is one of the more underrated boxers in recent years. Aside from the Mayweather fight Guerrero has not received much press during his career, but this guy didn't become a 6-time world champion in 4 different weight classes and ranked in the Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound in the prime of his career for no reason. Guerrero can box. He's a crafty, intelligent veteran who poses a threat to even elite opposition due to his experience, great chin, fearlessness, and all-around boxing skills, particularly his ability to outbox his opponents from the inside with volume and precision.

Guerrero has decisively beaten nearly all of the solid competition put in front of him, his lone clear loss coming at the hands of undefeated #1 pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather; even in that fight most would agree Guerrero actually won the first two rounds of the fight before Floyd adjusted and dominated the rest of the fight with his clear speed and skill advantages. Keith Thurman isn't a proven inside fighter so if Guerrero can get inside on Thurman and smother him, I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrero maybe eke out a victory by outworking Thurman and not giving Thurman enough space to land his power punches.

But it is Guerrero's lack of discipline defensively, combined with Thurman's power and mobility that I think gives the clear edge to Thurman in this matchup. Although Guerrero can box he's become - especially in recent fights - more of a brawler who has no problem trading punches due to his great chin and decent power. But trading punches with Thurman, who is quickly proving to be one of the elite power punchers in boxing, is almost certainly a recipe for disaster. Thurman is strong, physically bigger than Guerrero, and mobile enough to thwart any Guerrero attempts to make the match a physical fight inside. He is also patient, skilled, and intelligent enough to outbox the slower and somewhat flat-footed Guerrero from the outside, despite Guerrero's slight reach advantage. Guerrero's chin is solid but if he gets hit with the number of clean, flush power shots vs. Thurman that he has been hit with in his last three fights (which I expect him to), this will be a fairly easy wide decision - if not early stoppage - victory for Thurman. I expect Thurman's youth, power, and patient yet aggressive boxing style to overwhelm the older, defensively suspect, and battle-tested but perhaps battle-worn Guerrero.

All-in-all, this fight will be Thurman's toughest test to date in his career; a win here will solidify his status as one of the future stars of boxing and even as a possible opponent for Floyd Mayweather some time in 2016 if not later this year.

Prediction: Thurman to win 

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Alvarado vs. Rios III: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-3, 23 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (32-2-1, 23 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: January 20, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO International Welterweight title (currently vacant)
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado +155, Rios -165 (5 Dimes, 1/24/15)
Purse: Alvarado: $785,000, Rios: $850,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado: #5 ranked junior welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Jay Nady

Link to Alvarado/Rios I (HBO)
Link to Alvarado/Rios II (HBO)

Positives for Alvarado 
Negatives for Alvarado
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Alvarado

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. Aggressive, high-volume boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who has very solid boxing skills but is also more than willing to brawl. 
• Tough, gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart (though fighting with his heart has sometimes been to his disadvantage). Showed heart in his most recent fight, a tough unanimous decision loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in May 2014 where he knocked Marquez down in the 9th round after being dominated the entire fight. Generally solid boxer who has beaten notable contenders such as Mauricio Herrera, Breidis Prescott, and Rios in their first rematch. Naturally athletic fighter who was a former Colorado high school state champion in wrestling.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better overall boxing skills than Rios. Was especially effective in both previous fights vs. Rios with his power right hand, as well as his left jab - which was used to set up power punches and combinations. Fought particularly well vs. Rios in both previous fights when fighting from the outside and more often than not beat Rios to the punch due to reach advantage and quicker hand speed.
• After losing to Rios in October 2012 (Alvarado's first career defeat), in March 2013 Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios via unanimous decision victory on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Generally, boxers with the better technical skill tend to fare better in rematches due to better ability to adjust; Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios in 2013 so wouldn't be surprising if Alvarado wins this rematch even more decisively with additional adjustments. Even in the first loss to Rios, Alvarado outboxed Rios early before Rios power punches started to take effect.    
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado. Has already beaten Rios on a neutral site in their last fight so is perhaps even more likely to beat Rios in Denver.
• Mobile fighter with good footwork. Alvarado's dvantage over Rios increases the more he boxes on his feet, staying out of range from Rios' power punches and utilizing his superior boxing skills and speed from the outside.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Although he has been either knocked down or lost by TKO in three of his last four fights, does have an above average chin. Fights through getting hit with power punches reasonably well (problem is he sometimes ends up getting hit with too many power shots).

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defensive skills, while a bit better than Rios's due to his foot movement, are suspect. This and his inclination at times to brawl from inside (rather than use movement and boxing skills from outside) in fights has left him susceptible to knockdowns in most of his recent fights vs. top opponents. Alvarado's inability to defend himself has resulted in Alvarado getting knocked down three times in his last two fights and losing three out of his last four fights (two by TKO with his most recent loss by wide unanimous decision to Marquez). Has lost by TKO to Rios before so wouldn't be surprising to see Rios hand him another TKO loss. There will inevitably be moments in tonight's fight where he will brawl with Rios - which will likely be to Rios' advantage. 
• Is fighting at home in the Denver area but, even as a solid favorite, lost his last fight in Denver via TKO to Ruslan Provodnikov (who like Rios is limited skillwise but is a relentless power puncher who cuts off the ring well).
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the recent TKO losses to Rios and Provodnikov? While Alvarado has shown a good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the brutal wars he's had with Rios and Provodnikov, as well as his most recent loss to Marquez. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he's had recently. In addition to being battle-worn, Alvarado is 34 years old (six years older than Rios) and likely past his prime.
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. When fighting from the inside, Rios will generally have the advantage, particularly due to his better chin and more effective power punching from inside.
• Alvarado is a convicted felon who is facing the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence after recently being charged with illegally possessing a firearm. How will the looming felony charges and prospect of a prison sentence affect him in the fight?

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA welterweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado in their first fight on October 2012.
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed.   
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in both of his previous fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Alvarado is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Probably a bit physically and mentally tougher than Alvarado. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be over with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Has had issues in the past at lower weights cutting weight (which sometimes leaves him drained on the day of the fight). This will be much less of an issue in this fight, his second fight at welterweight (147 pounds).

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Alvarado will be fighting a boxer with superior technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed (and a boxer who is familiar with his predictable tendencies from their previous fights). Will have to turn fight with Alvarado into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match Alvarado wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and reach.  
• Lost two out of his last three fights, including the rematch vs. Alvarado. Only win in past two years was a DQ victory vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for his more skilled opponents such as Alvarado and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing in front of a hostile, pro-Alvarado crowd after losing to Alvarado in their rematch in October 2013.
• Like Alvarado has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who has shown signs of regression in recent fights, be able to return to top form vs. Alvarado?

Prefight Summary

Both Alvarado/Rios I and II were strong fight of the year candidates so I definitely expect tonight's fight to be a barnburner as well. Both fighters have slumped in recent fights and realize that another loss here may be the end of their respective careers as top-level boxers and significantly threaten future big fight opportunities.

I'm actually mildly surprised to see that Rios is listed as a solid (-165 on 5 Dimes) favorite in this fight. Vegas likely sees Alvarado as an aging boxer in his mid-30s who has had a lot taken out of him in recent fights - all of which were grueling, brutal wars. Alvarado did lose three out of those last four fights, including a TKO loss the last time he fought in Denver (vs. Provodnikov) and a TKO loss the first time he fought Rios. (Vegas also sees Alvarado as likely distracted by felony charges that could potentially leave him locked up for a few years.) Rios has also slumped in recent fights, losing two out of his last three (including his last fight vs. Alvarado), but is younger, has a much better chin, and overall is viewed as having not regressed as much as Alvarado over his past few fights. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Rios wear Alvarado down in the later rounds for the TKO/KO victory; at the end of the day Alvarado is defensively suspect and he does have a penchant for getting drawn into brawls (as opposed to using his movement and boxing skills), which is to Rios' advantage.

This fight could certainly go either way but I still favor Alvarado. Alvarado made the necessary adjustments to beat Rios in their first rematch and is still the better boxer between the two. One big difference in this fight is, for the first time in their trilogy, they will fight in Alvarado's hometown of Denver - I see that as being a boost for Alvarado's spirits and feel fighting in Denver could even slightly affect the judges' scoring (in what will likely be a close, competitive fight). Alvarado was outclassed in his last fight vs. future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez (though to his credit he fought a courageous fight which included a knockdown of Marquez in the later rounds), but learned his lesson from his first fight with Rios and TKO loss vs. Provodnikov that he is much more effective vs. brawlers using movement and his technical skill to outbox his opponents (as opposed to staying inside and trying to beat them at their own game). Rematches generally favor the more technically skilled fighter and I see this rematch being more a repeat of their previous rematch (in which Alvarado was able to make the necessary adjustments to win by unanimous decision) than a repeat of their first fight (which Rios won by TKO).

I actually see Rios as the slightly physically and mentally tougher fighter in this matchup but think Alvarado will use his superior boxing skill, quickness, and mobility, as well as draw from the energy of the home crowd and knowledge of Rios' (predictable) tendencies to earn a competitive but clear decision victory. Some feel Alvarado will be distracted by his outside legal issues; Alvarado is a convicted felon who actually has a fairly lengthy history of legal troubles and to this point in his career has not let those issues affect his performance in the ring. (Alvarado entered his last fight vs. Rios with visible cuts on his face and neck stemming from a bar fight and was still able to win vs. a a fighter who beat him by TKO in their previous fight.) Alvarado will utilize the footwork he used with good success in their last fight, as well as his hand speed and quickness advantage to outwork the defensively inept Rios over the course of 12 rounds to win the rubbermatch of  what is destined to go down as one of the classic trilogies in boxing history.

(Note: though I think Alvarado by decision is the most likely outcome and the way to go with this fight, would also consider wagering a smaller amount on Rios by TKO/KO as a hedge as there is certainly a possibility Alvarado's age and recent wars have worn him down to a shell of his former self.)

Prediction: Alvarado by decision 

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Stiverne vs. Wilder: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bermane Stiverne (24-1-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (32-0-0, 32 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 17, 2015
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Stiverne +175, Wilder -190 (5 Dimes, 1/17/15)
Purse: Stiverne: $910,000, Wilder: $1,000,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Stiverne - #2 ranked heavyweight, Wilder - #6 ranked heavyweight
Style: Stiverne: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Stiverne
Negatives for Stiverne
Positives for Wilder
Negatives for Wilder
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Stiverne

• Current WBC heavyweight champion. Along with Wilder, is one of the most powerful punchers in boxing with a KO% of 81%  (21 KOs in 26 fights). Possesses outstanding punching power in both hands, especially his right hand. Has not lost a fight in over 7.5 years and has lost only one fight in his career overall. (The one loss by TKO as a result of a highly questionable stoppage.) First world heavyweight champion of Haitian descent.
• In addition to being a power puncher is a technically sound boxer who counter punches well and eludes flush punches with solid, continuous head movement. Is probably the best counter puncher in the heavyweight division. Very patient fighter who throws economical, but generally accurate shots with KO power. Will have a clear boxing IQ and skill advantage vs. Wilder.
• Best punch is the overhand right, which he's used to knock down a large percentage of his opponents, including multiple knockdowns in his two most recent victories vs. Chris Arreola. Has an improved jab (which is often used to set up his overhand right) and also possesses an excellent right uppercut. Has knocked out multiple opponents with reputations for having a good chin (including his most recent fight last May vs. Arreola).  
• Has a clear experience advantage over Wilder. Within the past four years, Stiverne has fought (and beaten) solid heavyweight contenders such as Arreola (twice), Ray Austin, and Kerston Manswell. Stiverne also has an experience advantage in terms of fighting into the later rounds of fights. By contrast this will be Wilder's first major title fight and in 32 pro fights, Wilder has never fought past the 4th round of a fight.  
• Is a natural athlete who earned a scholarship to play football at Michigan State under then head coach Nick Saban in the late 90s. (Did not play and eventually left the team due to knee and ankle injuries.) Has an older brother who played football for the national champion Miami Hurricanes in the early 90s. Has fast hands for a big man and above average defense with his high guard.
• Has a quiet confidence. Patient fighter who has a knack for staying calm in the face of immense pressure (as he faced in his two recent fights vs. Arreola).

Negatives for Stiverne

• Stiverne has only one loss in his professional career, but that loss was by early round TKO to a fighter who finished his boxing career with a 15-20 record (and had an 11-15 record at the time he fought Stiverne). Stiverne has certainly improved since that loss 7.5 years ago but how will he fare vs. arguably the toughest opponent he's fought in his career, an undefeated opponent who has 32 KOs in 32 fights? 
• Although Stiverne comes into this fight with more experience than Wilder, he's also a relatively untested fighter. Has never fought a current or former world heavyweight champion. Also, he hasn't fought as many rounds as one might expect for a fighter with 26 fights under his belt; the majority (16) of his 26 fights have failed to go past the 2nd round. 
• Stiverne has been relatively inactive over the past few years, having fought only once a year each of the past three years (due primarily to hand and shoulder injuries). Stiverne is also 36 years old, seven years older than Wilder. Will an older fighter with a history of nagging injuries be able to withstand the barrage of a devastating power puncher like Wilder?
• Stiverne is a somewhat stationary boxer who likes to fight off the ropes and use his high guard defense to block punches (as opposed to using movement to avoid punches) while waiting for counter punching opportunities. This style may not fare well vs. Wilder, who has the power to punch through a stationary, high guard defense. Although he won both fights, Stiverne was tagged quite a few times from a stationary position against the ropes vs. Arreola; it's highly possible that if Wilder lands those same punches, the result will be an early round TKO/KO in favor of Wilder.
• The quiet, reserved Stiverne is relatively unknown compared to Wilder, who has a fan-friendly personality and is quickly gaining a following among even casual boxing fans with his early round KO victories. The MGM Grand Garden arena crowd will be decidedly pro-Wilder.

Positives for Wilder

• Undefeated fighter who has won all 32 of his fights by TKO/KO (with 24 of those fights coming by 1st or 2nd round TKO/KO). Currently the most devastating power puncher in the heavyweight division and possesses the highest KO% in heavyweight boxing history. Is a former Olympic bronze medalist (Beijing, 2008) who is perhaps the best American heavyweight fighting today. 
• Naturally athletic boxer who is very quick for his size (though Stiverne has comparable quickness and speed).Very strong, tall, rangy fighter who will enter tonight's fight vs. Stiverne with a 5" height advantage (6'7" vs. 6'2") and a 3" reach advantage (83" vs. 80"). Wilder's height and range combined with elite raw power and speed is rare and makes him an extremely difficult matchup for anyone.
• Wilder's best punch is his straight right hand, which is arguably the best straight right hand in all of boxing. (The majority of his early-round KOs have resulted from this punch.) Though primarily a one-handed fighter, does have underrated power from his left side, in particular with his left hook which he used to knock out heavyweight contender Malik Scott in the first round of their fight last year.
• In his 32 professional fights has only been knocked down once and never been seriously hurt. Some of that is due to facing mediocre/weak competition but some is also due to his dominance on the offensive end and noticeably improved defense. 
• Highly confident, gregarious fighter with a fan-friendly, offensive-minded boxing style. The vast majority of the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will be rooting for Wilder.

Negatives for Wilder

• Lacks experience, due in part to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. Other than a couple of solid opponents in Malik Scott and Audley Harrison, has fought primarily C-level fighters over the course of his career - partly explaining why he has 32 KOs in 32 fights. This is Wilder's first heavyweight title fight and Stiverne will be by far the toughest opponent he's ever fought.
• In addition to lack of experience with quality opponents, Wilder lacks experience fighting into later rounds. None of his 32 professional fights have gone past the 4th round, with only 8 going past the 2nd round. Wilder's stamina and questionable technical skills may be an issue if Stiverne, who has a pretty good chin, can survive the early rounds.
• How will Wilder's chin hold up vs. one of the best power punchers in boxing? Wilder was knocked down and roughed up a bit in his fight four years ago vs. Harold Sconiers (a journeyman with an 18-27-2 record) before earning a 4th round TKO victory. Wilder was actually hit a few times in his most recent fight vs. a clearly out-of-shape journeyman in Jason Gavern who took the fight on 6-7 days' notice. And Wilder has suffered a loss by TKO as an amateur. Stiverne's punching power is comparable to Wilder's; it would not be a surprise to see Stiverne, who is the more accurate puncher of the two, land flush early to earn the TKO/KO victory. 
• Though freakishly athletic with arguably the best punching power in the sport, at the end of the day Wilder's boxing style is somewhat amateurish and predictable given his dependence mostly on his right hand and lack of polished boxing technique. Though improved over the course of recent fights, Wilder is sometimes sloppy and undisciplined during fights, at times throwing wild, inaccurate punches. The level of competition he's fought and his punching power have allowed him to get away with this thus far... but how will his still raw, unpolished style fare vs. the #2-ranked heavyweight in the world?

Summary

No matter how it ends, Stiverne vs. Wilder will be a sure-fire action fight, which is why it's the most anticipated heavyweight fight on American soil in many years. Whichever way the fight goes (and this is certainly a fight that could go either way), the fight likely won't go past six rounds due to the immense punching power both men possess.

Stiverne is the older, more experienced fighter whose punching power is actually comparable to the much-hyped power of Wilder, but Stiverne also has the technical skill and patience to translate his power into an early round TKO/KO upset victory. Stiverne has fought heavy handed punchers in the past (see his two most recent fights vs. Arreola) and generally dispatched of them with relative ease. He's also scored TKO/KO victories vs. boxers with more proven chins and better defense than Wilder so I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he gets the TKO/KO victory here and retains his title belt.

But I think Stiverne's patient, economical style will be his undoing. I feel that Wilder has what may prove to be amongst all-time great punching power to compliment his freakish athleticism, not to mention his height and reach advantages over Stiverne. I think Wilder will be able to use his height, reach, and quickness to stay out of range vs. Stiverne's power punches and will be able to penetrate Stiverne's high guard defense with his power very early in the fight. Stiverne is a patient, relatively stationary fighter whose tendency is to hold his gloves high and gauge his opponent (often while against the ropes) while waiting for an opening to counter punch with his deadly power punches... but I feel in this instance this patience will ultimately cost him the fight. The winner of this fight will likely be whoever lands the first big punches; I think Deontay, generally a fast starter, will jump on and outwork Stiverne early in the fight and be well on his way to a TKO/KO victory before Stiverne even has a chance to get settled. Even with his solid chin, I don't see a cautious, stationary Stiverne being able to withstand Wilder's early barrage. Once Wilder's power makes clean contact, the fight will likely be over soon after.

With Wilder's inexperience at the top level and unproven defensive skills this fight could certainly go either way, especially if it somehow gets into the later rounds. But I feel Wilder will largely be able to elude Stiverne's power with his with his height, speed, and reach and, given Stiverne's patient boxing style, will be given plenty of opportunities to land a fight-ending punch before Stiverne has a chance to land his.

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO