Location: Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, California
Date: November 16, 2013
Weight class: Super Middleweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None (WBA (Super) World Super Middleweight and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight championships were on line but Rodriguez did not make weight)
TV: HBO
Line: Ward -2000, Rodriguez +1250 (5 Dimes, 11/16/13)
Purse: Ward: $1.9 million, Rodriguez: $1 million (Note: Rodriguez was fined $200,000 from $1 million purse for not making weight, $100,000 of which went to Ward)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Ward - #2 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine super middleweight champion), Rodriguez - #7 ranked super middleweight
Style: Ward: Orthodox, Rodriguez: Orthodox
Positives for Ward
- #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport today. Undefeated master technician who hasn't lost as a pro or as an amateur since he was 12 years old. Has great all-around skills and has no true weaknesses. 1996 Olympic gold medalist and future Hall-of-Famer.
- Hasn't truly been tested in his career, this despite having fought arguably the toughest schedule of any boxer over the past few years - which includes Showtime's Super Six World Boxing Classic tournament (where Ward was undefeated).
- Very versatile, crafty boxer who fights superbly both inside and outside. Physical fighter who is very skilled at smothering opponents wearing them down on the inside. Can box and brawl very well.
- Has great instincts and is excellent at adjusting to his opponents during the fight. Along with Floyd Mayweather and Bernard Hopkins is one of the master technicians in the sport today.
- Smart defensively, particularly on the inside.
- Highly accurate puncher who throws well-timed jabs and is good at attacking the body on the inside.
- Extremely intelligent, high-IQ boxer who is highly focused. Very humble fighter who does not take any opponent lightly.
- Reliable chin. Has only been knocked down once in his career.
Negatives for Ward
- Hasn't fought in over 14 months due to surgery for a serious right shoulder injury. Will the inactivity/surgery affect his return?
- Is sometimes passive in early rounds while figuring out his opponent.
- Not exceptionally powerful; doesn't have one punch KO power. This could give Rodriguez a full 12 rounds to land something surprising to upset Ward.
- How good is Ward's chin really? He's been knocked down before and there have been spots in previous fights where he's been shook up by lesser opponents.
Positives for Rodriguez
- Undefeated, solid, aggressive volume puncher with good power in both hands. Very hungry, determined fighter who will make every effort to pull off the upset vs. Ward.
- Naturally gifted fighter with very good athletic ability.
- Tall fighter with good reach. Uses his length well vs. most opponents to establish his jab. Will have a 5" reach advantage vs. Ward.
- Throws punches from awkward angles, making him unpredictable. Rodriguez's unpredictability could make it harder for Ward to avoid Rodriguez's punches in spots and time his own counter punches.
- Rodriguez's defense has gotten better over the past few fights. He has good head movement and uses the shoulder roll well to minimize the impact of punches.
Negatives for Rodriguez
- Fighting the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today; likely going into the fight out-classed in terms of skill, talent, and boxing IQ.
- Lack of experience at the top level; Rodriguez hasn't fought the same level of opponents Ward has. This will be Rodriguez's first fight vs. an elite boxer.
- Rodriguez likely physically drained from trying to make weight (which he failed to do), which may increase the likelihood he shows fatigue or even gets knocked out during the fight.
- Has improved defensively but aggressive, wild punching style often leaves him susceptible to counter punches.
Prefight Summary
Barring lingering after-effects from his 14 months of inactivity or recent shoulder injury, this should be a very easy fight for Ward. Ward is a future all-time great, Hall-of-Fame boxer who is clearly superior to Rodriguez in terms of natural talent, technical skills, and boxing IQ. Ward should be able effectively counter Rodriguez's highly aggressive style with accurate punches in the early rounds and eventually work his way inside, wearing Rodriguez down with punishing body shots. Rodriguez is hungry and undefeated, but he is not skilled enough to outbox an elite talent like Ward over 12 rounds.
Given Ward's lack of KO power and the fact that Rodriguez is a fairly big, athletic guy who's never been down in his career, I think the most likely outcome for the fight is Ward by a wide, unanimous decision. However, Ward is very good at wearing his opponents down on the inside with body punches and, given that Rodriguez may be coming into the fight physically drained from trying (and failing) to make weight, there is a good possibility Ward gets the stoppage inside 12 rounds.
Rodriguez has good power in both hands and Ward has been knocked down before so Rodriguez does have a puncher's chance if he can land a lucky punch or two (especially given his unorthodox, unpredictable punching style). There's also the possibility Ward is still rusty from 14 months of inactivity or that his shoulder (which had been a problem for him since he was an amateur) gives him problems during the fight that Rodriguez can exploit. But even if there's some adversity, Ward's experience and savvy alone should guide him to a fairly easy victory, whether that be by wide unanimous decision or by TKO/KO.
Given Ward's lack of KO power and the fact that Rodriguez is a fairly big, athletic guy who's never been down in his career, I think the most likely outcome for the fight is Ward by a wide, unanimous decision. However, Ward is very good at wearing his opponents down on the inside with body punches and, given that Rodriguez may be coming into the fight physically drained from trying (and failing) to make weight, there is a good possibility Ward gets the stoppage inside 12 rounds.
Rodriguez has good power in both hands and Ward has been knocked down before so Rodriguez does have a puncher's chance if he can land a lucky punch or two (especially given his unorthodox, unpredictable punching style). There's also the possibility Ward is still rusty from 14 months of inactivity or that his shoulder (which had been a problem for him since he was an amateur) gives him problems during the fight that Rodriguez can exploit. But even if there's some adversity, Ward's experience and savvy alone should guide him to a fairly easy victory, whether that be by wide unanimous decision or by TKO/KO.
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