Stiverne vs. Wilder: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bermane Stiverne (24-1-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (32-0-0, 32 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: January 17, 2015
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Stiverne +175, Wilder -190 (5 Dimes, 1/17/15)
Purse: Stiverne: $910,000, Wilder: $1,000,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Stiverne - #2 ranked heavyweight, Wilder - #6 ranked heavyweight
Style: Stiverne: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Positives for Stiverne
Negatives for Stiverne
Positives for Wilder
Negatives for Wilder
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Stiverne

• Current WBC heavyweight champion. Along with Wilder, is one of the most powerful punchers in boxing with a KO% of 81%  (21 KOs in 26 fights). Possesses outstanding punching power in both hands, especially his right hand. Has not lost a fight in over 7.5 years and has lost only one fight in his career overall. (The one loss by TKO as a result of a highly questionable stoppage.) First world heavyweight champion of Haitian descent.
• In addition to being a power puncher is a technically sound boxer who counter punches well and eludes flush punches with solid, continuous head movement. Is probably the best counter puncher in the heavyweight division. Very patient fighter who throws economical, but generally accurate shots with KO power. Will have a clear boxing IQ and skill advantage vs. Wilder.
• Best punch is the overhand right, which he's used to knock down a large percentage of his opponents, including multiple knockdowns in his two most recent victories vs. Chris Arreola. Has an improved jab (which is often used to set up his overhand right) and also possesses an excellent right uppercut. Has knocked out multiple opponents with reputations for having a good chin (including his most recent fight last May vs. Arreola).  
• Has a clear experience advantage over Wilder. Within the past four years, Stiverne has fought (and beaten) solid heavyweight contenders such as Arreola (twice), Ray Austin, and Kerston Manswell. Stiverne also has an experience advantage in terms of fighting into the later rounds of fights. By contrast this will be Wilder's first major title fight and in 32 pro fights, Wilder has never fought past the 4th round of a fight.  
• Is a natural athlete who earned a scholarship to play football at Michigan State under then head coach Nick Saban in the late 90s. (Did not play and eventually left the team due to knee and ankle injuries.) Has an older brother who played football for the national champion Miami Hurricanes in the early 90s. Has fast hands for a big man and above average defense with his high guard.
• Has a quiet confidence. Patient fighter who has a knack for staying calm in the face of immense pressure (as he faced in his two recent fights vs. Arreola).

Negatives for Stiverne

• Stiverne has only one loss in his professional career, but that loss was by early round TKO to a fighter who finished his boxing career with a 15-20 record (and had an 11-15 record at the time he fought Stiverne). Stiverne has certainly improved since that loss 7.5 years ago but how will he fare vs. arguably the toughest opponent he's fought in his career, an undefeated opponent who has 32 KOs in 32 fights? 
• Although Stiverne comes into this fight with more experience than Wilder, he's also a relatively untested fighter. Has never fought a current or former world heavyweight champion. Also, he hasn't fought as many rounds as one might expect for a fighter with 26 fights under his belt; the majority (16) of his 26 fights have failed to go past the 2nd round. 
• Stiverne has been relatively inactive over the past few years, having fought only once a year each of the past three years (due primarily to hand and shoulder injuries). Stiverne is also 36 years old, seven years older than Wilder. Will an older fighter with a history of nagging injuries be able to withstand the barrage of a devastating power puncher like Wilder?
• Stiverne is a somewhat stationary boxer who likes to fight off the ropes and use his high guard defense to block punches (as opposed to using movement to avoid punches) while waiting for counter punching opportunities. This style may not fare well vs. Wilder, who has the power to punch through a stationary, high guard defense. Although he won both fights, Stiverne was tagged quite a few times from a stationary position against the ropes vs. Arreola; it's highly possible that if Wilder lands those same punches, the result will be an early round TKO/KO in favor of Wilder.
• The quiet, reserved Stiverne is relatively unknown compared to Wilder, who has a fan-friendly personality and is quickly gaining a following among even casual boxing fans with his early round KO victories. The MGM Grand Garden arena crowd will be decidedly pro-Wilder.

Positives for Wilder

• Undefeated fighter who has won all 32 of his fights by TKO/KO (with 24 of those fights coming by 1st or 2nd round TKO/KO). Currently the most devastating power puncher in the heavyweight division and possesses the highest KO% in heavyweight boxing history. Is a former Olympic bronze medalist (Beijing, 2008) who is perhaps the best American heavyweight fighting today. 
• Naturally athletic boxer who is very quick for his size (though Stiverne has comparable quickness and speed).Very strong, tall, rangy fighter who will enter tonight's fight vs. Stiverne with a 5" height advantage (6'7" vs. 6'2") and a 3" reach advantage (83" vs. 80"). Wilder's height and range combined with elite raw power and speed is rare and makes him an extremely difficult matchup for anyone.
• Wilder's best punch is his straight right hand, which is arguably the best straight right hand in all of boxing. (The majority of his early-round KOs have resulted from this punch.) Though primarily a one-handed fighter, does have underrated power from his left side, in particular with his left hook which he used to knock out heavyweight contender Malik Scott in the first round of their fight last year.
• In his 32 professional fights has only been knocked down once and never been seriously hurt. Some of that is due to facing mediocre/weak competition but some is also due to his dominance on the offensive end and noticeably improved defense. 
• Highly confident, gregarious fighter with a fan-friendly, offensive-minded boxing style. The vast majority of the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will be rooting for Wilder.

Negatives for Wilder

• Lacks experience, due in part to the fact that he didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. Other than a couple of solid opponents in Malik Scott and Audley Harrison, has fought primarily C-level fighters over the course of his career - partly explaining why he has 32 KOs in 32 fights. This is Wilder's first heavyweight title fight and Stiverne will be by far the toughest opponent he's ever fought.
• In addition to lack of experience with quality opponents, Wilder lacks experience fighting into later rounds. None of his 32 professional fights have gone past the 4th round, with only 8 going past the 2nd round. Wilder's stamina and questionable technical skills may be an issue if Stiverne, who has a pretty good chin, can survive the early rounds.
• How will Wilder's chin hold up vs. one of the best power punchers in boxing? Wilder was knocked down and roughed up a bit in his fight four years ago vs. Harold Sconiers (a journeyman with an 18-27-2 record) before earning a 4th round TKO victory. Wilder was actually hit a few times in his most recent fight vs. a clearly out-of-shape journeyman in Jason Gavern who took the fight on 6-7 days' notice. And Wilder has suffered a loss by TKO as an amateur. Stiverne's punching power is comparable to Wilder's; it would not be a surprise to see Stiverne, who is the more accurate puncher of the two, land flush early to earn the TKO/KO victory. 
• Though freakishly athletic with arguably the best punching power in the sport, at the end of the day Wilder's boxing style is somewhat amateurish and predictable given his dependence mostly on his right hand and lack of polished boxing technique. Though improved over the course of recent fights, Wilder is sometimes sloppy and undisciplined during fights, at times throwing wild, inaccurate punches. The level of competition he's fought and his punching power have allowed him to get away with this thus far... but how will his still raw, unpolished style fare vs. the #2-ranked heavyweight in the world?

Summary

No matter how it ends, Stiverne vs. Wilder will be a sure-fire action fight, which is why it's the most anticipated heavyweight fight on American soil in many years. Whichever way the fight goes (and this is certainly a fight that could go either way), the fight likely won't go past six rounds due to the immense punching power both men possess.

Stiverne is the older, more experienced fighter whose punching power is actually comparable to the much-hyped power of Wilder, but Stiverne also has the technical skill and patience to translate his power into an early round TKO/KO upset victory. Stiverne has fought heavy handed punchers in the past (see his two most recent fights vs. Arreola) and generally dispatched of them with relative ease. He's also scored TKO/KO victories vs. boxers with more proven chins and better defense than Wilder so I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he gets the TKO/KO victory here and retains his title belt.

But I think Stiverne's patient, economical style will be his undoing. I feel that Wilder has what may prove to be amongst all-time great punching power to compliment his freakish athleticism, not to mention his height and reach advantages over Stiverne. I think Wilder will be able to use his height, reach, and quickness to stay out of range vs. Stiverne's power punches and will be able to penetrate Stiverne's high guard defense with his power very early in the fight. Stiverne is a patient, relatively stationary fighter whose tendency is to hold his gloves high and gauge his opponent (often while against the ropes) while waiting for an opening to counter punch with his deadly power punches... but I feel in this instance this patience will ultimately cost him the fight. The winner of this fight will likely be whoever lands the first big punches; I think Deontay, generally a fast starter, will jump on and outwork Stiverne early in the fight and be well on his way to a TKO/KO victory before Stiverne even has a chance to get settled. Even with his solid chin, I don't see a cautious, stationary Stiverne being able to withstand Wilder's early barrage. Once Wilder's power makes clean contact, the fight will likely be over soon after.

With Wilder's inexperience at the top level and unproven defensive skills this fight could certainly go either way, especially if it somehow gets into the later rounds. But I feel Wilder will largely be able to elude Stiverne's power with his with his height, speed, and reach and, given Stiverne's patient boxing style, will be given plenty of opportunities to land a fight-ending punch before Stiverne has a chance to land his.

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO