Khan vs. Alexander: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Amir Khan (29-3-0, 19 KOs) vs. Devon Alexander (26-2-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: December 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Silver Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Khan -265, Alexander +245 (5 Dimes, 12/13/14)
Purse: Khan: $950,000, Alexander: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Khan - #9 ranked welterweight, Alexander - #10 ranked welterweight
Style: Khan: Orthodox, Alexander: Southpaw
Referee: Robert Byrd

Positives for Khan
Negatives for Khan
Positives for Alexander
Negatives for Alexander
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Khan

• Former two-time light welterweight champion and Olympic silver medalist (Athens, 2004). Offensively gifted fighter who has arguably the fastest hands in boxing. His lightning quick hand speed combined with his accuracy and power makes him a very effective combination puncher in particular. Khan's quickness allows him to throw to throw a wide range of punches effectively from a variety of angles, generally making his attack unpredictable. In terms of offensive talent, is likely one of the top five boxers in the sport. 
• Similar to Manny Pacquiao, Khan is a very good ambush fighter (i.e., is adept at jumping in on his opponents and using his hand speed to land clean combinations, then using his foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter). Khan also has an excellent jab from distance; per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed per round.  
• Overall very athletic boxer with great speed (both in his hands and feet) and high punch volume. (Per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of overall punches landed per round.) Has arguably never truly been outboxed in pro career, losing only due to TKO/KO (as he did vs. Breidis Prescott and Danny Garcia) or very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (as he did vs. Lamont Peterson).
• Very experienced fighter. Khan has fought current and former world champions such as Marcos Antonio Barrera, Paulie Malignaggi, Marcos Maidana, Zab Judah, Lamont Peterson, and Danny Garcia; among these lost only to Peterson (in a very controversial split decision in Peterson's home town) and Garcia (in a fight where he was clearly outboxing Garcia before getting knocked down) while beating defeating the others decisively. Despite his good experience, Khan is only 28 years old and arguably still very much in the prime of his career.  
• Somewhat reckless fighter in the past who's shown a bit more discipline under Virgil Hunter, who's trained him for his last three fights. Looked especially impressive in his most recent fight vs. former WBA welterweight champion Luis Collazo, scoring three knockdowns in a wide unanimous decision victory. 
• British-Pakistani fighter who is very popular both in his native United Kingdom and in Pakistan. British fans travel to see his fights in the United States and, with his fan-friendly boxing style, Khan will likely have the majority of the crowd supporting him at in his fight vs. Alexander.
• Fights with tremendous heart and will to win, though this is sometimes to his detriment (as clearly seen in the fights he's lost, most notably vs. Garcia). Will be a very determined fighter vs. Alexander as he sees the fight as a path to setting up a big PPV fight early next year vs. Floyd Mayweather.

Negatives for Khan

• Khan's glaring weakness has always been his chin. Khan has been knocked down at least eight times in his pro career, including twice in his KO loss vs. Prescott and three times in his TKO loss vs. Garcia. His chin has also led to fights being closer than expected, such as his close but decisive win in December 2010 vs. Maidana and his fight last year vs. Julio Diaz. Khan was caught with left hooks in both of his TKO/KO losses vs. Prescott and Garica and in his most recent knockdown vs. Diaz. With his weak chin, Khan is prone to getting knocked out at any time by any boxer with above average punching power. 
• Fairly poor defensive fighter. Often fights with his hands down, doesn't move his head well, and doesn't move on his feet well defensively (i.e., is adept at jumping in on opponents with an offensive attack but sometimes stays inside too long and doesn't move well enough on his feet to evade his opponents' counter punches). Is working to improve defensive skills under new trainer Virgil Hunter but in this regard is still a work in progress.
• Was on the cusp of becoming an elite fighter (was as recently as three years ago ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound Top 10 in the world) and future boxing superstar before his chin and defensive liabilities were exposed. Unquestionable talent in terms of his boxing skills and athleticism but has questionable boxing IQ due to the defensive flaws mentioned above and occasional recklessness in the ring (though he has shown better discipline under Virgil Hunter). Despite nearly always outboxing his opponents, is very prone to making basic mistakes that can quickly swing the fight in his opponent's favor. 
• Is Khan still a top contender? Fought well in his most recent fight vs. Collazo but barely escaped a solid but journeyman fighter in Julio Diaz his previous fight in April 2013, including suffering a knockdown. (Some felt Diaz earned the draw or even won the fight outright.) Did beat a solid B+-level fighter in Carlos Molina in December 2012 but lost his two fights vs. top-level boxers prior to that (Peterson and Garcia). 
• Excellent fighter from distance and when jumping in to throw combinations but doesn't fight well when backing up. More of a finesse than physical fighter who is backed into corners easily at times.
• In Devon Alexander, Khan is facing arguably the toughest opponent of a career in which he's already suffered three losses. 
• Khan has very good punching power but his power is arguably overrated. His last TKO/KO victory was a 5th round TKO over three years ago in his July 2011 fight vs. Zab Judah.
• With his ambition to become a boxing superstar, Khan has, by his own admission, sometimes overlooked opponents. There have been indications Khan is overlooking his upcoming fight with Alexander and already possibly looking forward to a big money fight early next year vs. Mayweather.

Positives for Alexander

• Former world champion at light welterweight and welterweight. Slick, very good all-around boxer with solid technical skills. Tough, gritty southpaw who possesses one of the best chins in boxing; Alexander has never been knocked out and only been knocked down once in his professional career (in his win vs. Lucas Matthysse in June 2011), despite facing some of the more highly regarded power punchers in boxing like Matthysse, Marcos Maidana, and Randall Bailey. 27 years old and still in the prime of his career.
• Accurate and effective puncher - particularly with his right hand where his right uppercut and right hook are his best punches. Possesses good speed and is adept at throwing short, quick combinations. Has a good work rate in terms of punch volume and moves well around the ring. 
• Not as quick or fast as Khan but arguably more skilled, has higher boxing IQ, and a much better chin. Has beaten three notorious power punchers in Matthysse, Maidana, and Bailey (all of who hit harder than Khan) so Alexander likely won't have trouble with Khan's power. Won every round on two out of three judges' scorecards in his fight vs. Maidana, a fighter who earlier this year gave #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather his toughest fight in years.
• Has only lost two fights in his professional career, both competitive fights to then undefeated fighters (Timothy Bradley in January 2011 and Shawn Porter in December 2013). Both losses were to highly aggressive fighters who roughed Alexander up on the inside; Khan is more of a finesse fighter who will try beat Alexander with his speed from the outside, jumping in only occasionally. 
• Alexander's punching power isn't great but is underrated. Defeated then light welterweight champion and tough-chinned Colombian Juan Urango by 8th round TKO, Urango's only loss by TKO/KO. Had the notoriously tough Maidana in trouble in the 6th round of their February 2012 fight.
• Unlike Khan is a very disciplined, poised fighter who doesn't get thrown off his game plan in tough situations. 

Negatives for Alexander

• Has underrated power but his power certainly isn't great. Khan's main weakness is his chin but he likely won't have to worry about getting knocked out by Alexander; Alexander hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 4.5 years.  
• Has very good quickness and speed but is not as quick or fast as Khan. Alexander is used to having a speed advantage in his fights but Khan will have the clear speed advantage here. 
• Solid technical fighter but has a rigid, somewhat predictable style. While Alexander has been competitive in all his fights, his style lacks an element of surprise quality which may hurt him vs. a quicker fighter like Khan.
• Alexander has a great right hand but is not as effective with his left hand. In getting knocked down/knocked out, Khan has shown he is particularly susceptible to the left hook; Khan will have little to worry about with Alexander's left hook, which lacks real KO power.  
• If Alexander beats Khan, Khan will be the toughest fighter he has beaten. Alexander has never been considered an elite figher; he's beaten highly regarded Argentinean boxers Matthysse and Maidana (both in his hometown area of St. Louis, Missouri) but lost both times he stepped up to fight a top-level fighter away from home. 
• Khan's only losses have come vs. pressure fighters or fighters with true KO power (i.e., fighters who've negated Khan's speed with their physical strength). Alexander is more of a counter puncher than a pressure fighter and perhaps doesn't have the physical strength advantage to mitigate Khan's speed advantage. Alexander doesn't fight as well on the inside as he does from range, a weakness that largely contributed to the only two losses of his pro career (vs. Bradley and Porter).   
• Despite having a great chin, Alexander does have some defensive flaws. As shown in the Bradley and Porter fights, Alexander sometimes doesn't react to inside pressure well and generally doesn't fight well against the ropes. Would expect Khan, with his quickness and accuracy, to be effective in stretches applying pressure vs. Alexander with combination punches and jabs.

Summary

This is an intriguing fight as it is a battle between two very good, highly regarded boxers who very early in their careers reached the cusp of greatness but weren't able to break through into the ranks of the elite. Both Khan and Alexander have had setbacks in their careers but a win here could put one of them back on track to being considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Both fighters are aware there's a lot at stake; the winner of this fight would also be widely considered the most likely next opponent for Floyd Mayweather next year if Mayweather's negotiations with Manny Pacquiao don't work out.

Despite being an over 2 to 1 underdog, Alexander does have a real shot to win this fight. Even in his two losses, Alexander has always been competitive. Alexander is a very intelligent, disciplined with some top-level skills who should have success in spots landing his quick right hand and short combination punches vs. the defensively flawed Khan. Although Devon is not a pressure fighter by nature, if he can impose his physical strength and rough Khan up on the inside, this fight will be a lot closer than people think - to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if Devon pulled off the upset. And Devon does have underrated power to compliment his good hand speed; Khan has suffered TKO/KO losses to much slower fighters than Alexander so if Devon loads up and clips Khan flush with one of his quick right uppercuts or hooks a stoppage is certainly conceivable given Khan's unreliable chin.

There are good reasons to side with Alexander but I think Khan's speed will carry him to a clear victory on tonight's fight. Alexander is also a speedy fighter for sure but Khan is a level faster; I believe Khan will be successful in using his speed to get his punches off before Devon can land his. Devon does have one of the better chins in boxing but he's not the best fighters defensively; I expect Khan to land his long jab and patented combination punches consistently throughout the 12-round fight. Devon may catch Khan occasionally on counter punches but he doesn't have the power or the inside fighting skill to apply the pressure to Khan that's led to all his previous losses. I see this fight going the distance in a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory for Khan. If Khan looks impressive in this fight, it would give me even more reason to believe his speed and volume punching would give even Floyd Mayweather serious problems if they were to fight next year (which would be likely if the Pacquiao fight doesn't get made).

Prediction: Khan by decision