Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO