Alvarado vs. Rios III: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Mike Alvarado (34-3, 23 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (32-2-1, 23 KOs)
Location: 1STBANK Center, Broomfield, Denver, Colorado
Date: January 20, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO International Welterweight title (currently vacant)
TV: HBO
Line: Alvarado +155, Rios -165 (5 Dimes, 1/24/15)
Purse: Alvarado: $785,000, Rios: $850,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarado: #5 ranked junior welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Alvarado: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Jay Nady

Link to Alvarado/Rios I (HBO)
Link to Alvarado/Rios II (HBO)

Positives for Alvarado 
Negatives for Alvarado
Positives for Rios
Negatives for Rios
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Alvarado

• Former WBO light welterweight champion. Aggressive, high-volume boxer-puncher with very good punching power. Versatile boxer who has very solid boxing skills but is also more than willing to brawl. 
• Tough, gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart (though fighting with his heart has sometimes been to his disadvantage). Showed heart in his most recent fight, a tough unanimous decision loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in May 2014 where he knocked Marquez down in the 9th round after being dominated the entire fight. Generally solid boxer who has beaten notable contenders such as Mauricio Herrera, Breidis Prescott, and Rios in their first rematch. Naturally athletic fighter who was a former Colorado high school state champion in wrestling.
• Alvarado is not a great technician but has better overall boxing skills than Rios. Was especially effective in both previous fights vs. Rios with his power right hand, as well as his left jab - which was used to set up power punches and combinations. Fought particularly well vs. Rios in both previous fights when fighting from the outside and more often than not beat Rios to the punch due to reach advantage and quicker hand speed.
• After losing to Rios in October 2012 (Alvarado's first career defeat), in March 2013 Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios via unanimous decision victory on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Generally, boxers with the better technical skill tend to fare better in rematches due to better ability to adjust; Alvarado won the rematch vs. Rios in 2013 so wouldn't be surprising if Alvarado wins this rematch even more decisively with additional adjustments. Even in the first loss to Rios, Alvarado outboxed Rios early before Rios power punches started to take effect.    
• The fight is taking place in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, where the crowd will be decidedly pro-Alvarado. Has already beaten Rios on a neutral site in their last fight so is perhaps even more likely to beat Rios in Denver.
• Mobile fighter with good footwork. Alvarado's dvantage over Rios increases the more he boxes on his feet, staying out of range from Rios' power punches and utilizing his superior boxing skills and speed from the outside.
• Alvarado has excellent stamina, which may play an important role given that the fight is taking place in Denver. (In high altitude cities such as Denver, low air pressure makes it more difficult to breathe.) Alvarado's stamina generally allows him to finish strong in the later rounds of fights.
• Although he has been either knocked down or lost by TKO in three of his last four fights, does have an above average chin. Fights through getting hit with power punches reasonably well (problem is he sometimes ends up getting hit with too many power shots).

Negatives for Alvarado

•  Alvarado's defensive skills, while a bit better than Rios's due to his foot movement, are suspect. This and his inclination at times to brawl from inside (rather than use movement and boxing skills from outside) in fights has left him susceptible to knockdowns in most of his recent fights vs. top opponents. Alvarado's inability to defend himself has resulted in Alvarado getting knocked down three times in his last two fights and losing three out of his last four fights (two by TKO with his most recent loss by wide unanimous decision to Marquez). Has lost by TKO to Rios before so wouldn't be surprising to see Rios hand him another TKO loss. There will inevitably be moments in tonight's fight where he will brawl with Rios - which will likely be to Rios' advantage. 
• Is fighting at home in the Denver area but, even as a solid favorite, lost his last fight in Denver via TKO to Ruslan Provodnikov (who like Rios is limited skillwise but is a relentless power puncher who cuts off the ring well).
• Has Alvarado fully recovered from the recent TKO losses to Rios and Provodnikov? While Alvarado has shown a good chin in the past, there are questions as to how he's been affected by the brutal wars he's had with Rios and Provodnikov, as well as his most recent loss to Marquez. Boxers have a history of losing confidence and becoming gun shy after wars such as the ones he's had recently. In addition to being battle-worn, Alvarado is 34 years old (six years older than Rios) and likely past his prime.
• Alvarado has good boxing skills, but he's far from a master technician. When fighting from the inside, Rios will generally have the advantage, particularly due to his better chin and more effective power punching from inside.
• Alvarado is a convicted felon who is facing the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence after recently being charged with illegally possessing a firearm. How will the looming felony charges and prospect of a prison sentence affect him in the fight?

Positives for Rios

• Former WBA welterweight champion. Very good pressure fighter with dangerous power in both hands. Brawler who fights especially well from the inside and is very effective at cutting off the ring. Earned a 7th round TKO victory vs. Alvarado in their first fight on October 2012.
• Has one of the best chins in boxing. Consistently walks through flush power punches. Has never been stopped in his career and only been knocked down once, a 2006 fight vs. Joel Ortega (which he came back to win by 5th round KO).
• Has good counterpunching skills. Rios often takes flush power punches in order to throw even more powerful counterpunches - which is an effective style for him due to his excellent chin and deceptively quick hand speed.   
• Relentless puncher from the inside. Inside hooks and overhand rights were especially effective in both of his previous fights vs. Alvarado. Uses body attack well to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. 
• Like Alvarado is a very tough boxer who fights with a warrior mentality and tremendous will to win. Probably a bit physically and mentally tougher than Alvarado. Will be highly motivated to win this fight as he knows his career as a top-level boxer may be over with a loss.
• Longtime trainer is Robert Garcia, widely considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Has had issues in the past at lower weights cutting weight (which sometimes leaves him drained on the day of the fight). This will be much less of an issue in this fight, his second fight at welterweight (147 pounds).

Negatives for Rios

• Very stationary, flat-footed, predictable fighter. In Alvarado will be fighting a boxer with superior technical skill, boxing IQ, mobility, and hand speed (and a boxer who is familiar with his predictable tendencies from their previous fights). Will have to turn fight with Alvarado into a brawl in order to win; in a pure boxing match Alvarado wins easily with his superior skill, speed, and reach.  
• Lost two out of his last three fights, including the rematch vs. Alvarado. Only win in past two years was a DQ victory vs. Diego Chaves who was actually ahead on two out of three judge's scorecards before being disqualified due to intentional elbow to face. Rios has actually been behind on at least one judge's scorecard at the time of stoppage in four out of his last fights. 
• Though he has an excellent chin, Rios has poor defensive skills. Uses very little head movement and is more than willing to take flush punches in order to land his own power punches. This style has generally been effective for him in his career but results in easy scoring opportunities for his more skilled opponents such as Alvarado and Manny Pacquiao, who he lost to by wide unanimous decision in November 2013.  
• Is fighting in Alvarado's hometown of Denver, facing in front of a hostile, pro-Alvarado crowd after losing to Alvarado in their rematch in October 2013.
• Like Alvarado has been through some brutal wars in recent fights, most notably his two fights vs. Alvarado and his November 2013 unanimous decision loss vs. Pacquiao. Will Rios, who has shown signs of regression in recent fights, be able to return to top form vs. Alvarado?

Prefight Summary

Both Alvarado/Rios I and II were strong fight of the year candidates so I definitely expect tonight's fight to be a barnburner as well. Both fighters have slumped in recent fights and realize that another loss here may be the end of their respective careers as top-level boxers and significantly threaten future big fight opportunities.

I'm actually mildly surprised to see that Rios is listed as a solid (-165 on 5 Dimes) favorite in this fight. Vegas likely sees Alvarado as an aging boxer in his mid-30s who has had a lot taken out of him in recent fights - all of which were grueling, brutal wars. Alvarado did lose three out of those last four fights, including a TKO loss the last time he fought in Denver (vs. Provodnikov) and a TKO loss the first time he fought Rios. (Vegas also sees Alvarado as likely distracted by felony charges that could potentially leave him locked up for a few years.) Rios has also slumped in recent fights, losing two out of his last three (including his last fight vs. Alvarado), but is younger, has a much better chin, and overall is viewed as having not regressed as much as Alvarado over his past few fights. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Rios wear Alvarado down in the later rounds for the TKO/KO victory; at the end of the day Alvarado is defensively suspect and he does have a penchant for getting drawn into brawls (as opposed to using his movement and boxing skills), which is to Rios' advantage.

This fight could certainly go either way but I still favor Alvarado. Alvarado made the necessary adjustments to beat Rios in their first rematch and is still the better boxer between the two. One big difference in this fight is, for the first time in their trilogy, they will fight in Alvarado's hometown of Denver - I see that as being a boost for Alvarado's spirits and feel fighting in Denver could even slightly affect the judges' scoring (in what will likely be a close, competitive fight). Alvarado was outclassed in his last fight vs. future first ballot hall-of-famer Juan Manuel Marquez (though to his credit he fought a courageous fight which included a knockdown of Marquez in the later rounds), but learned his lesson from his first fight with Rios and TKO loss vs. Provodnikov that he is much more effective vs. brawlers using movement and his technical skill to outbox his opponents (as opposed to staying inside and trying to beat them at their own game). Rematches generally favor the more technically skilled fighter and I see this rematch being more a repeat of their previous rematch (in which Alvarado was able to make the necessary adjustments to win by unanimous decision) than a repeat of their first fight (which Rios won by TKO).

I actually see Rios as the slightly physically and mentally tougher fighter in this matchup but think Alvarado will use his superior boxing skill, quickness, and mobility, as well as draw from the energy of the home crowd and knowledge of Rios' (predictable) tendencies to earn a competitive but clear decision victory. Some feel Alvarado will be distracted by his outside legal issues; Alvarado is a convicted felon who actually has a fairly lengthy history of legal troubles and to this point in his career has not let those issues affect his performance in the ring. (Alvarado entered his last fight vs. Rios with visible cuts on his face and neck stemming from a bar fight and was still able to win vs. a a fighter who beat him by TKO in their previous fight.) Alvarado will utilize the footwork he used with good success in their last fight, as well as his hand speed and quickness advantage to outwork the defensively inept Rios over the course of 12 rounds to win the rubbermatch of  what is destined to go down as one of the classic trilogies in boxing history.

(Note: though I think Alvarado by decision is the most likely outcome and the way to go with this fight, would also consider wagering a smaller amount on Rios by TKO/KO as a hedge as there is certainly a possibility Alvarado's age and recent wars have worn him down to a shell of his former self.)

Prediction: Alvarado by decision 

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