Khan vs. Alexander: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Amir Khan (29-3-0, 19 KOs) vs. Devon Alexander (26-2-0, 14 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: December 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Silver Welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Khan -265, Alexander +245 (5 Dimes, 12/13/14)
Purse: Khan: $950,000, Alexander: $600,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Khan - #9 ranked welterweight, Alexander - #10 ranked welterweight
Style: Khan: Orthodox, Alexander: Southpaw
Referee: Robert Byrd

Positives for Khan
Negatives for Khan
Positives for Alexander
Negatives for Alexander
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Khan

• Former two-time light welterweight champion and Olympic silver medalist (Athens, 2004). Offensively gifted fighter who has arguably the fastest hands in boxing. His lightning quick hand speed combined with his accuracy and power makes him a very effective combination puncher in particular. Khan's quickness allows him to throw to throw a wide range of punches effectively from a variety of angles, generally making his attack unpredictable. In terms of offensive talent, is likely one of the top five boxers in the sport. 
• Similar to Manny Pacquiao, Khan is a very good ambush fighter (i.e., is adept at jumping in on his opponents and using his hand speed to land clean combinations, then using his foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter). Khan also has an excellent jab from distance; per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed per round.  
• Overall very athletic boxer with great speed (both in his hands and feet) and high punch volume. (Per CompuBox stats, Khan is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of overall punches landed per round.) Has arguably never truly been outboxed in pro career, losing only due to TKO/KO (as he did vs. Breidis Prescott and Danny Garcia) or very controversial split decision which included multiple questionable point deductions (as he did vs. Lamont Peterson).
• Very experienced fighter. Khan has fought current and former world champions such as Marcos Antonio Barrera, Paulie Malignaggi, Marcos Maidana, Zab Judah, Lamont Peterson, and Danny Garcia; among these lost only to Peterson (in a very controversial split decision in Peterson's home town) and Garcia (in a fight where he was clearly outboxing Garcia before getting knocked down) while beating defeating the others decisively. Despite his good experience, Khan is only 28 years old and arguably still very much in the prime of his career.  
• Somewhat reckless fighter in the past who's shown a bit more discipline under Virgil Hunter, who's trained him for his last three fights. Looked especially impressive in his most recent fight vs. former WBA welterweight champion Luis Collazo, scoring three knockdowns in a wide unanimous decision victory. 
• British-Pakistani fighter who is very popular both in his native United Kingdom and in Pakistan. British fans travel to see his fights in the United States and, with his fan-friendly boxing style, Khan will likely have the majority of the crowd supporting him at in his fight vs. Alexander.
• Fights with tremendous heart and will to win, though this is sometimes to his detriment (as clearly seen in the fights he's lost, most notably vs. Garcia). Will be a very determined fighter vs. Alexander as he sees the fight as a path to setting up a big PPV fight early next year vs. Floyd Mayweather.

Negatives for Khan

• Khan's glaring weakness has always been his chin. Khan has been knocked down at least eight times in his pro career, including twice in his KO loss vs. Prescott and three times in his TKO loss vs. Garcia. His chin has also led to fights being closer than expected, such as his close but decisive win in December 2010 vs. Maidana and his fight last year vs. Julio Diaz. Khan was caught with left hooks in both of his TKO/KO losses vs. Prescott and Garica and in his most recent knockdown vs. Diaz. With his weak chin, Khan is prone to getting knocked out at any time by any boxer with above average punching power. 
• Fairly poor defensive fighter. Often fights with his hands down, doesn't move his head well, and doesn't move on his feet well defensively (i.e., is adept at jumping in on opponents with an offensive attack but sometimes stays inside too long and doesn't move well enough on his feet to evade his opponents' counter punches). Is working to improve defensive skills under new trainer Virgil Hunter but in this regard is still a work in progress.
• Was on the cusp of becoming an elite fighter (was as recently as three years ago ranked in the Ring Magazine pound-for-pound Top 10 in the world) and future boxing superstar before his chin and defensive liabilities were exposed. Unquestionable talent in terms of his boxing skills and athleticism but has questionable boxing IQ due to the defensive flaws mentioned above and occasional recklessness in the ring (though he has shown better discipline under Virgil Hunter). Despite nearly always outboxing his opponents, is very prone to making basic mistakes that can quickly swing the fight in his opponent's favor. 
• Is Khan still a top contender? Fought well in his most recent fight vs. Collazo but barely escaped a solid but journeyman fighter in Julio Diaz his previous fight in April 2013, including suffering a knockdown. (Some felt Diaz earned the draw or even won the fight outright.) Did beat a solid B+-level fighter in Carlos Molina in December 2012 but lost his two fights vs. top-level boxers prior to that (Peterson and Garcia). 
• Excellent fighter from distance and when jumping in to throw combinations but doesn't fight well when backing up. More of a finesse than physical fighter who is backed into corners easily at times.
• In Devon Alexander, Khan is facing arguably the toughest opponent of a career in which he's already suffered three losses. 
• Khan has very good punching power but his power is arguably overrated. His last TKO/KO victory was a 5th round TKO over three years ago in his July 2011 fight vs. Zab Judah.
• With his ambition to become a boxing superstar, Khan has, by his own admission, sometimes overlooked opponents. There have been indications Khan is overlooking his upcoming fight with Alexander and already possibly looking forward to a big money fight early next year vs. Mayweather.

Positives for Alexander

• Former world champion at light welterweight and welterweight. Slick, very good all-around boxer with solid technical skills. Tough, gritty southpaw who possesses one of the best chins in boxing; Alexander has never been knocked out and only been knocked down once in his professional career (in his win vs. Lucas Matthysse in June 2011), despite facing some of the more highly regarded power punchers in boxing like Matthysse, Marcos Maidana, and Randall Bailey. 27 years old and still in the prime of his career.
• Accurate and effective puncher - particularly with his right hand where his right uppercut and right hook are his best punches. Possesses good speed and is adept at throwing short, quick combinations. Has a good work rate in terms of punch volume and moves well around the ring. 
• Not as quick or fast as Khan but arguably more skilled, has higher boxing IQ, and a much better chin. Has beaten three notorious power punchers in Matthysse, Maidana, and Bailey (all of who hit harder than Khan) so Alexander likely won't have trouble with Khan's power. Won every round on two out of three judges' scorecards in his fight vs. Maidana, a fighter who earlier this year gave #1 pound-for-pound fighter Floyd Mayweather his toughest fight in years.
• Has only lost two fights in his professional career, both competitive fights to then undefeated fighters (Timothy Bradley in January 2011 and Shawn Porter in December 2013). Both losses were to highly aggressive fighters who roughed Alexander up on the inside; Khan is more of a finesse fighter who will try beat Alexander with his speed from the outside, jumping in only occasionally. 
• Alexander's punching power isn't great but is underrated. Defeated then light welterweight champion and tough-chinned Colombian Juan Urango by 8th round TKO, Urango's only loss by TKO/KO. Had the notoriously tough Maidana in trouble in the 6th round of their February 2012 fight.
• Unlike Khan is a very disciplined, poised fighter who doesn't get thrown off his game plan in tough situations. 

Negatives for Alexander

• Has underrated power but his power certainly isn't great. Khan's main weakness is his chin but he likely won't have to worry about getting knocked out by Alexander; Alexander hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 4.5 years.  
• Has very good quickness and speed but is not as quick or fast as Khan. Alexander is used to having a speed advantage in his fights but Khan will have the clear speed advantage here. 
• Solid technical fighter but has a rigid, somewhat predictable style. While Alexander has been competitive in all his fights, his style lacks an element of surprise quality which may hurt him vs. a quicker fighter like Khan.
• Alexander has a great right hand but is not as effective with his left hand. In getting knocked down/knocked out, Khan has shown he is particularly susceptible to the left hook; Khan will have little to worry about with Alexander's left hook, which lacks real KO power.  
• If Alexander beats Khan, Khan will be the toughest fighter he has beaten. Alexander has never been considered an elite figher; he's beaten highly regarded Argentinean boxers Matthysse and Maidana (both in his hometown area of St. Louis, Missouri) but lost both times he stepped up to fight a top-level fighter away from home. 
• Khan's only losses have come vs. pressure fighters or fighters with true KO power (i.e., fighters who've negated Khan's speed with their physical strength). Alexander is more of a counter puncher than a pressure fighter and perhaps doesn't have the physical strength advantage to mitigate Khan's speed advantage. Alexander doesn't fight as well on the inside as he does from range, a weakness that largely contributed to the only two losses of his pro career (vs. Bradley and Porter).   
• Despite having a great chin, Alexander does have some defensive flaws. As shown in the Bradley and Porter fights, Alexander sometimes doesn't react to inside pressure well and generally doesn't fight well against the ropes. Would expect Khan, with his quickness and accuracy, to be effective in stretches applying pressure vs. Alexander with combination punches and jabs.

Summary

This is an intriguing fight as it is a battle between two very good, highly regarded boxers who very early in their careers reached the cusp of greatness but weren't able to break through into the ranks of the elite. Both Khan and Alexander have had setbacks in their careers but a win here could put one of them back on track to being considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Both fighters are aware there's a lot at stake; the winner of this fight would also be widely considered the most likely next opponent for Floyd Mayweather next year if Mayweather's negotiations with Manny Pacquiao don't work out.

Despite being an over 2 to 1 underdog, Alexander does have a real shot to win this fight. Even in his two losses, Alexander has always been competitive. Alexander is a very intelligent, disciplined with some top-level skills who should have success in spots landing his quick right hand and short combination punches vs. the defensively flawed Khan. Although Devon is not a pressure fighter by nature, if he can impose his physical strength and rough Khan up on the inside, this fight will be a lot closer than people think - to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if Devon pulled off the upset. And Devon does have underrated power to compliment his good hand speed; Khan has suffered TKO/KO losses to much slower fighters than Alexander so if Devon loads up and clips Khan flush with one of his quick right uppercuts or hooks a stoppage is certainly conceivable given Khan's unreliable chin.

There are good reasons to side with Alexander but I think Khan's speed will carry him to a clear victory on tonight's fight. Alexander is also a speedy fighter for sure but Khan is a level faster; I believe Khan will be successful in using his speed to get his punches off before Devon can land his. Devon does have one of the better chins in boxing but he's not the best fighters defensively; I expect Khan to land his long jab and patented combination punches consistently throughout the 12-round fight. Devon may catch Khan occasionally on counter punches but he doesn't have the power or the inside fighting skill to apply the pressure to Khan that's led to all his previous losses. I see this fight going the distance in a clear but competitive unanimous decision victory for Khan. If Khan looks impressive in this fight, it would give me even more reason to believe his speed and volume punching would give even Floyd Mayweather serious problems if they were to fight next year (which would be likely if the Pacquiao fight doesn't get made).

Prediction: Khan by decision

Pacquiao vs. Algieri: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) vs. Chris Algieri (20-0-0, 8 KOs)
Location: Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macau, Macau, China
Date: November 22, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - fight is being held at 144lb catchweight)
Title(s) on the line: WBO Welterweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Pacquiao -630, Algieri +520 (5 Dimes, 11/22/14)
Purse: Pacquiao: $25 million, Algieri: $1.675 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao - #4 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked welterweight), Algieri - #3 ranked light welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Algieri: Orthodox
Referee: Genaro Rodriguez

Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Positives for Algieri
Negatives for Algieri
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Pacquiao

• Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still one of the elite fighters in the sport (ranked #4 pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine). Pacquiao still has much of the blazing hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Ambush fighter who is adept at moving in on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using foot speed to move out of range before his opponents can counter. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork and will have a clear hand and foot speed advantage going into this fight vs. Algieri.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over 5 years (8 fights; last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has KO power in both hands. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters to anticipate where the punches are coming from. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley. Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent head movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly.
• Pacquiao has had great success in the past vs. taller fighters with a significant reach advantage (see his fights. vs. 5'11" Antonio Margarito and 5'10" Oscar De La Hoya who were both dominated by Pacquiao despite the height and 5" reach advantage). Shorter fighters can often be elusive for taller fighters as taller fighters may have to bend over and shoot punches at angles to catch their opponents.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over his past few fights? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his most recent fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight; knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's last fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) 
• Experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under HOF trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Will come into this fight with a clear advantage in experience vs. Algieri, who has previously only fought in one world title fight and never fought a pro fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. In his HOF career, Pacquiao has already dominated and/or knocked out much tougher opponents than Algieri.
• The crowd at the Venetian in Macau will be overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao. Pacquiao, arguably the greatest Asian fighter in the history of the sport, will be fighting in front of a mostly Asian crowd. Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach is also popular in China as he is the current trainer of wildly popular Chinese boxer (and current WBO International Flyweight champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist) Zhou Shiming (who will be fighting on the undercard that same night). Fighting in Asia, it is unlikely the relatively unknown Algieri will get a decision victory vs. Pacquiao unless he clearly dominates the fight. 
• Unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 35 years old (more than 5 years older than Algieri) and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last four fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (8 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers.
• Though inexperienced. Pacquiao's opponent Algieri is an undefeated, highly confident world champion currently in the prime of his career. As he showed in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov, Algieri is tough and resilient; many knowledgeable boxing fans feel he has the boxing skills to pull off the upset vs. the aging Pacquiao.
• Pacquiao is fighting at both a significant height and reach disadvantage vs. a very skilled boxer in Algieri. Despite Manny's significant speed advantage, Algieri's range and above average mobility may make it difficult for Manny to land clean punches.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Algieri has a fairly powerful, accurate jab which, when combined with his reach advantage, can back Pacquiao into positions where he won't be able to fight as effectively. If Algieri is as effective with his jab as he was vs. Provodnikov, this fight could be competitive. 
• While Pacquiao's defense has improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his most recent fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. If he can survive the early rounds, Algieri is a solid, savvy counter puncher who is capable of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws in spots.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Phillipines when he's not boxing and as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Phillipines. Pacquiao also has a long-term goal of being President of the Phillipines. Is his heart still really in boxing? With all his distractions, Pacquiao could easily overlook a very tough, solid fighter in Algieri and come into this fight unprepared.

Positives for Algieri

• Current WBO light welterweight champion. Very tough, resilient fighter with high boxing IQ and solid all-around boxing skills. Algieri is undefeated in 20 professional fights and has beaten proven fighters such as Emmanuel Taylor (who lost a close decision to Adrien Broner in his most recent fight) and former WBO light welterweight champion Ruslan Provodnikov. Highly confident fighter who truly believes he will win this fight.
• Tall, long fighter who throws combinations well and is especially accurate with his jabs and lead right punch. Is generally a counter puncher who has good speed and fights well off his back foot. Algieri's solid jab was key in his recent upset win vs. Provodnikov; opponents with solid jabs have often used the jab with good success vs. Pacquiao (see Bradley, Marquez, and Erik Morales's fights vs. Pacquiao). 
• Algieri is 30 years old - five years younger than Pacquiao. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Algieri possesses a 4" height and 5" reach advantage vs. Pacquiao; although Pacquiao has in the past had success vs. taller, longer fighters, Algieri may have the speed and savvy to use his height and reach to his advantage. Despite fighting at lower weight classes than Pacquiao (Algieri currently competes at 140 lbs), Algieri is the naturally bigger man and will likely come in to the fight with the weight advantage.   
• Technically skilled boxer with the ability to adjust to his opponent's style over the course of a fight. Made effective adjustments in his most recent fight vs. Provodnikov after being knocked down twice in the 1st round to pull off the upset victory.
• Extremely well conditioned fighter with good endurance. Algieri works professionally as nutritionist and personal trainer and has a master's degree in clinical nutrition.
• Gritty boxer who also has experience as a kick boxer; was an undefeated world kickboxing champion before retiring to become a professional boxer.

Negatives for Algieri

• Algieri is undefeated (20-0) as a pro but has not fought anything close to the elite level of competition Pacquiao has. Algieri's toughest opponents to date have been a solid B-level fighter in Emmanuel Taylor (over whom he scored a competitive but clear unanimous decision victory) and a one-dimensional power puncher in Ruslan Provodnikov, over whom he scored a highly debatable split decision win. (I scored the fight 116-110 for Provodnikov.) It's highly possible Algieri is in way over his head vs. Pacquiao, an all-time great who has significantly more experience, talent, and skill than anyone he has ever fought.
• Algieri moves well and has good hand and foot speed but Pacquiao's footwork and speed is on another level, (i.e., among that of the all-time greats). If a relatively slow, flat-footed boxer such as Provodnikov was able to successfully pressure Algieri (Provodnikov knocked Algieri down twice in the first round and applied effective pressure in various other spots throughout the fight), how will Algieri be able to handle the lightning quick speed combined with power of Pacquiao? Both Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez, two future hall-of-famers much more skilled and elusive than Algieri, had  (by their own admittance) problems with Pacquiao's speed - why would Algieri fare any different? 
•  Algieri lacks punching power; of Algieri's 20 wins, only 8 were by TKO/KO (with half of those 8 occurring in his first 6 fights vs. weak, unknown competition). Algieri is considered less of a puncher than former Pacquiao opponent Timothy Bradley, who was noted for his lack of punching power. Algieri's lack of power will likely allow Pacquiao to stay aggressive and take more chances in the fight. 
• Despite winning the fight, Algieri suffered massive swelling of his right eye vs. Provodnikov a few months ago. If Pacquiao targets the eye (which is highly possible), would expect the eye to re-swell and cause Algieri problems over the latter course of the fight.
• Algieri will have a clear height and reach advantage coming into the fight but those "advantages" may actually be a liability as taller, longer fighters often have trouble locating and landing clean punchers against shorter fighters (who tend to be quicker and more elusive). Pacquiao has had success in the past in high profile fights vs. taller fighters with range. 
• This fight is the first time Algieri has fought at welterweight in his career. The fight will actually be held at a catchweight (144 lbs) but this is the first time Algieri had fought above 140 lbs. How will his power (or, rather, his previously noted lack thereof) transfer to a higher weight class vs. a slightly larger opponent? Pacquiao, on the other hand, is very experienced at welterweight; many of his most notable fights took place at welterweight. 
• Algieri has never fought a solid southpaw in his career. His two notable fights vs. Provodnikov and Taylor were both fights against right-handed opponents.  
• This fight in Macau, China will be Algieri's first professional fight outside the New York City metropolitan area. How will he handle fighting overseas in front of an overwhelmingly pro-Pacquiao crowd? Despite the fact that two of the judges are from the U.S. can Algieri, who is little to no threat to win this fight by knockout, really expect to get a decision victory in China?

Summary

Other than a lucky punch (and it would have to be *very* lucky punch considering his lack of power), I'm not seeing how Algieri will pull off the upset here. Yes, Algieri is undefeated and is a tough, solid boxer with underrated skills. With his mobility and accurate jab, Algieri may have success in spots using his reach advantage to jab and evade Pacquiao's frequent ambush attacks or use his jab as a set up for clean counters when Pacquiao tries to get inside. Algieri is very well conditioned so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is able to move effectively and box off his back foot the entire 12 rounds vs. Pacquiao without tiring. If Pacquiao fights a somewhat cautious fight (as he has for stretches of his previous two fights vs. Brandon Rios and Bradley after losing by KO in his 4th fight vs. Marquez), there is a possibility Algieri could outwork Pacquiao in spots to keep the fight competitive.

But I see Pacquiao's speed advantage being the key to this fight. Despite being 35 years old and past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite hand and foot speed, the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Pacquiao still has great talent, skill, power, and experience, also the likes of which Algieri has never seen before. Algieri can try to move and stay out of range from Pacquiao's power all he wants but he certainly won't be able to go a full 12 (or even a couple) of rounds before Manny and his superior speed eventually catches up to him. Algieri was able to stay competitive vs. Provodnikov largely because Ruslan is flat-footed (i.e., usually has to be set before throwing a power punch) and Chris had the speed advantage; in this fight Manny will have the clear speed advantage vs. Algieri and is capable of throwing punching from a variety of awkward angles that will be difficult for Algieri to anticipate.

I feel Pacquiao's speed and power will easily overwhelm Algieri's reach advantage, mobility, and whatever game plan he has in store for Manny. Algieri is a tough kid for sure and I would not at all be surprised if he gets through all 12 rounds, but I'm leaning towards by Pacquiao by TKO/KO. Algieri has beaten every opponent put in front of him but, even at 35, Pacquiao is a couple levels above not only every opponent Algieri has ever faced but Algieri himself; I expect Pacquiao's brilliance to shine once again Saturday night in Macau.

Prediction: Pacquiao by TKO/KO

Hopkins vs. Kovalev: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Bernard Hopkins (55-6-2-2, 32 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (25-0-1, 23 KOs)
Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Date: November 8, 2014
Weight class: Light Heavyweight (175 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super Light Heavyweight title, IBF Light Heavyweight title, WBO Light Heavyweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Hopkins +240, Kovalev -260 (5 Dimes, 11/8/14)
Purse: Hopkins: $1 million, Kovalev: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Hopkins - #1 ranked light heavyweight, Kovalev - #2 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Hopkins: Orthodox, Kovalev: Orthodox

Positives for Hopkins

• Along with Marvin Hagler and Carlos Monzon, one of the great middleweight boxers of all time. In his prime, defended his middleweight title(s) a record 20 consecutive times over a 10+ year period. Current IBF, WBA, and IBA light heavyweight champion of the world and is the oldest boxer to ever win and defend a world title. Still a master class technician at age 49. Future first ballot hall-of-famer.
• Tough, savvy boxer with an extremely high boxing IQ (perhaps the highest IQ in the sport). Has an excellent trainer in Naazim Richardson but practically coaches himself during fights. Adept at making adjustments during the fight and neutralizing his opponent's strengths. Superb all-around boxer with no major weaknesses.
• Particularly adept at fighting inside and wearing his opponents down with body shots. Arguably the best inside fighter of the past 20 years.
•  Has excellent defensive skills. Keeps chin down behind his lead shoulder with his hands held high, making him a tough target to hit cleanly. Has a solid chin when hit.
• Hopkins is a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Kovalev. Hopkins generally controls the pace/tempo of fights and is adept at using "gray-area" tactics (e.g., excessive clinching, hitting opponents during clinches, head butts, smothering, etc.) to his advantage.  
• Doesn't have the knockout power he once had but still has good power in both hands. In his most recent fight (vs. then WBA light heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov), scored a knockdown in the 11th round. 
• At 49 years old, will still have a speed/mobility advantage vs. the slower Kovalev. Hopkins has excellent (and often underrated) footwork as well as a slight (2.5") reach advantage which he will likely use to try and manage distance and neutralize Kovalev's dangerous knockout power. Hopkins has had success in the past vs. big punchers with slower mobility (e.g., his victories vs. at the time undefeated boxers Felix Trinidad and Kelly Pavlik). 
• Despite his age is still in world class shape, as evidenced by the fact that he is the current light heavyweight champion of the world and within the past 3.5 years has convincingly beaten the likes of Beibut Shumenov (almost 19 years his junior), Karo Murat (18 years his junior), Tavoris Cloud (17 years his junior), and Jean Pascal (18 years his junior) - 3 of whom are former world champions and all of whom were ranked one of the top 10 light heavyweight boxers in the world at the time they fought Hopkins. (Pascal and Shumenov are still currently ranked in the top 5 of light heavy weight boxers in the world.)
• Hopkins is the more experienced fighter by a wide margin. Has fought (and beaten) the likes of Keith Holmes, Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones Jr., Kelly Pavlik, and William Joppy. In his prime, Hopkins achieved a record 20 middleweight world title defenses. For comparison, Kovalev's best opponents have been lesser known, B-level fighters such as Nathan Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo (though both are former world champions). 
• Will be fighting in front of a decidedly pro-Hopkins crowd in Atlantic City, NJ (only a one hour drive from his hometown of Philadelphia, PA). This will be Hopkins' 19th time fighting in Atlantic City as a pro. 

Negatives for Hopkins

• Hopkins is 49 years old (only two months from his 50th birthday and eligibility to join AARP), 18 years older than Kovalev. For comparison, Hopkins is actually over a year older than long-retired former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and is only slightly younger than retired boxing legends Pernell Whitaker (50 years old), Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. (52), and Evander Holyfield (52). Hopkins has consistently fought at a world-class level and beaten top-level competition but he'll inevitably slow down at his older age. Could this fight vs. the naturally bigger, younger, more powerful Kovalev be the fight where he finally shows his age? 
• While Hopkins has fought a lot of top-level competition in his recent fights, he's only fought one boxer over the past six years considered "elite" at the time they fought (Chad Dawson) and struggled in both fights. (The first fight was a no contest decision that Hopkins was clearly losing and the second fight Hopkins lost by majority decision.)
• Although Hopkins has an excellent chin, he is susceptible to being knocked down, having been knocked down twice in both his first fight vs. Jean Pascal in 2011 and his first fight vs. Segundo Mercado back in 1994 (both fights ended in a draw). Although Hopkins was not seriously hurt after any of those knockdowns neither Pascal nor Mercado possess the punching power of Kovalev, who has knocked out by early round TKO/KO nearly 90% of the opponents he's faced. 
• Notoriously slow starter in fights. Starts slow while taking the time to read and make adjustments to his opponent.  
• Has a tendency to pace himself during fights, especially in this late stage of his career where the volume of punches he throws is noticeably down from where it was in his prime. He'll often fight in spurts, sometimes having significant portions of rounds where he isn't very active (which leaves him susceptible to being outworked and outscored on the judges' scorecards). Sometimes slow in setting up his punches.
• Although he has good power in both hands, Hopkins doesn't have the knockout power he once had. Hopkins has never really been a knockout puncher and won't win this fight by KO. If Hopkins wants to win this fight, he'll have to win by decision. 

Positives for Kovalev

• Undefeated boxer (25-0-1) and current WBO light heavyweight champion. (Lone draw on his record was a technical stoppage due to an accidental foul in the 2nd round.) Devastating power puncher with excellent power in both hands. 
• Out of his 25 wins, 23 (almost 90%) have come by KO. One of the most feared men in boxing. Has literally killed another boxer in the ring. (Roman Simakov died of brain injuries days after his December 2011 fight with Kovalev.)
• Although known primarily as a power puncher, Kovalev has underrated boxing skills. Patient fighter who doesn't waste punches.Very efficient, highly accurate puncher who throws combinations well and has an excellent straight right hand (as seen in his most recent fight vs. Blake Caparello). When punching uses angles well and is effective at throwing leaping lead hooks from distance, which makes him somewhat unpredictable in his attack. Is also a devastating body puncher, one of the best in the sport.
• At 31 years old, Kovalev is in the prime of his career facing a nearly 50-year old fighter nearing the end of his career. Hopkins is an all-time great but Kovalev is the younger, naturally bigger, and stronger fighter.
• Kovalev doesn't have the top-level experience Hopkins has but he does have good experience vs. very solid fighters. The combined record of Kovalev's five most recent opponents was an impressive 113-2-1 before he fought them, including two undefeated fighters in Nathan Cleverly and Cedric Agnew and two former world champions in Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo. 
• Kovalev's trainer, John David Jackson, has years of experience with Hopkins; sparring with him early in his career, fighting against him in a 1997 middleweight title fight, and as his assistant trainer for four years (including during Hopkins' upset victories vs. Antonio Tarver and Kelly Pavlik). Jackson knows Hopkins as well as nearly any trainer in the sport, which is certainly to Kovalev's advantage.  

Negatives for Kovalev

• While Kovalev has fought some solid opponents, his experience isn't even close to that of Hopkins, who has fought (and decisively beaten) future first ballot hall-of-famers like Felix Trinidad, Oscar De La Hoya, and Roy Jones Jr. Hopkins is by far the best opponent Kovalev has faced in his career.  
• Kovalev has never gone past eight rounds in his professional career, having been to the eight round only once and past the 4th round only four times in his career. Hopkins' defensive skill and experience means there's a good change Kovalev's stamina and ability to box past the early/mid rounds will be tested for the first time in his career. 
• Kovalev is one of the most feared punchers in boxing, but is unproven as an inside fighter; Hopkins, one of the great inside fighters in the history of boxing, may have some success if he can smother Kovalev and make the fight an inside brawl. Kovalev has KO power in both hands but his power isn't quite as strong from his left hand as it is from his right.
• Kovalev's defense is far from poor but is flawed. Kovalev's come forward, offensive-minded approach often results in his dropping his guard which leaves him susceptible to clean counters, something Hopkins will likely try to take advantage of. (If Hopkins wins the fight it will likely largely be due to his ability to exploit Kovalev's defensive holes though Kovalev opponents are often fearful of throwing counter punches as it leaves them exposed to Kovalev's power.) Kovalev's chin is also not proven; he's suffered a first-round knockout loss as an amateur and has been knocked down twice as a professional, including his last fight vs. Caparello.
• While Kovalev's boxing skills are very good (and oft underrated), Hopkins is still the superior boxer in terms of technical skill and IQ. Kovalev won't win a chess match vs. Hopkins. Hopkins will also have a speed and footwork advantage vs. the somewhat slower, less agile Kovalev. 

Prefight Summary

This is a tough fight to predict as there are many ways this fight could go (depending on a number of different variables). Bernard Hopkins is certainly a master class boxer, one of the great (i.e., top 50) boxers in the history of the sport. It would not at all be surprising to see Hopkins pull off the upset; he has been in this position a few times before (as a significant underdog to a younger, undefeated, hyped-up boxer with big punching power) vs. boxers even more highly regarded than Kovalev and more than once won convincingly (see his fights vs. Trinidad and Pavlik). Hopkins is a master at adjusting to his opponents' tendencies and has the uncanny ability to neutralize his opponents' strengths over the course of a fight. I can easily see Hopkins using his technical skill, footwork, and speed advantage to stay out of Kovalev's power punching range but also be capable of sneaking in on Kovalev to make the fight a brawl from the inside, where Kovalev is largely untested. (Hopkins on the other hand is one of the best inside fighters of his generation.) In focusing primarily on his offensive attack, Kovalev's defense is suspect at times; Hopkins will likely have spots in the fight where he exposes Kovalev's defensive holes with clean counter punches. Kovalev has shown his defensive flaws in previous fights vs. lesser fighters - I'd expect there will be at least a few moments in the fight where Hopkins will have the opportunity to outpoint Kovalev, perhaps even enough to earn Hopkins a victory by decision.

The (huge) rub here is that Hopkins, while still a top-level boxer, is almost 50 years old and near the end of his career fighting a deadly power puncher in his prime who is younger, naturally bigger, and stronger than him. Hopkins is still a very good boxer but his punching volume has decreased and skills have diminished a bit since his prime days as a middleweight champion; I doubt he'll be able to outwork Kovalev (and may not even try to fully engage Kovalev as that will leave him more prone to Kovalev countering with his devastating punching power).

Kovalev is an excellent power puncher for sure, but he is also a very skilled boxer. He's an intelligent fighter who throws punches with a high level of efficiency and is very accurate. While not as agile as Hopkins, Kovalev does possess pretty good foot mobility and hand speed; there's a good chance Hopkins' elusiveness and defensive skills keeps him out of danger for much of the fight but I see it as only a matter of time over the course of 12 rounds before Kovalev lands a devastating punch (or series of punches) that changes the course of the fight. Hopkins may try to smother Kovalev and turn the fight into an inside brawl (which may mitigate Kovalev's punching power) but Kovalev, the bigger and stronger fighter, should be able to outmuscle Hopkins and not allow him to dictate the pace of the fight.

Hopkins is a current world champion who has won his last three fights by decision vs. very solid opponents but during the same time frame, Kovalev has won by early-round TKO/KO vs. comparably-skilled fighters. Kovalev is a level or two above any opponent Hopkins has fought over the past two years and will show it Saturday night.

Because Hopkins has never been knocked out or seriously hurt in a fight I'm reluctant to pick Kovalev by TKO/KO but do think Kovalev's punching power and underrated boxing skill will carry him to victory if not by mid-round TKO/KO then by a 117-111/116-112'ish unanimous decision victory. Kovalev is is exactly the type of fighter who will force Hopkins, for the first time in his long and brilliant career, to finally show his age.

Prediction: Kovalev to win 

Golovkin vs. Rubio: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Gennady Golovkin (30-0-0, 27 KOs) vs. Marco Antonio Rubio (59-6-1, 51 KOs)
Location: Stubhub Center, Carson, California
Date: October 18, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Middleweight title, IBO World Middleweight title, interim WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Golovkin -5700, Rubio +3600 (5 Dimes, 10/18/14)
Purse: Golovkin: $900,000,  Rubio: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin - #1 ranked middleweight, Rubio - #5 ranked middleweight
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Rubio: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Positives for Golovkin

• Current Ring Magazine #1 middleweight and reigning WBA and IBO middleweight champion. Undefeated at 30-0 and, with 27 KOs in 30 fights, holds the highest knockout percentage in middleweight history. Named Ring Magazine fighter of the year in 2013 after four impressive KO victories. 
• Offensively gifted boxer who possesses elite KO power in both hands. Golovkin's 90% KO percentage (27 KOs in 30 fights) ranks first among active current and former champions and ranks second overall in championship history. Has the potential to go down as one of the great power punchers in the history of the sport.
• Intelligent pressure fighter who is excellent at using footwork to cut off the ring. Very efficient boxer who tends not to waste punches.
•  Has outstanding power but is also technically savvy. Golovkin does not have great hand speed but makes up for it with an outstanding jab and methodical, accurate combination punching. Per CompuBox stats, Golovkin lands more jabs per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter and other than ultra-aggressive super bantamweight champion Leo Santa Cruz, Golovkin lands more overall punches per round than any other CompuBox-tracked fighter. Per CompuBox plus/minus ratings, other than #1 pound-for-pound champion Floyd Mayweather Jr., Golovkin is the most dominant fighter in the sport. 
•  Possesses an excellent chin. Golovkin has never been knocked down or knocked out over approximately 380 fights as an amateur and pro. 
• Has an impressive amateur pedigree, with over 340 wins (including wins vs. Andre Dirrell, Lucian Bute, and Andy Lee) against only 5 losses. Won a silver medal medal for his native Kazakhstan in the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. 
• Trains with Abel Sanchez, a very underrated fighter who has trained numerous former champions including Terry Norris, Olin Norris, Carlos Baldomir, and Samuel Peter. 

Negatives for Golovkin

• Golovkin is fighting arguably his toughest opponent to date in Rubio, an experienced veteran who is naturally bigger than Golovkin.  
• Rubio is a tough, hard-nosed fighter who could survive into the later rounds with Golovkin. Does Golovkin have the stamina to fight effectively in later rounds? Out of 30 professional fights, Golovkin has only gone to the 10th round once in his career and only fought past six rounds seven other times. 
• While applying pressure vs. his opponents, Golovkin sometimes has shown susceptibility to getting caught with clean counter punches (most recently in 3rd round of his fight vs. Geale before knocking him out). Golovkin has a great chin but often focuses more on offense than protecting himself defensively so at times is open to be hit when he drops his guard. 
• Is not as good a boxer fighting inside as he is from distance, as shown at times in the Gabriel Rosado fight and early in his fight with Daniel Geale. If Rubio can use his size advantage and toughness to turn the fight into an inside brawl he may have a chance of making the fight competitive.
• Golovkin is being promoted as possibly the next big star in boxing but he is 32 years old so likely is towards the end of the prime of his career. 
• While highly accurate and efficient, Golovkin does not possess great speed or quickness, though he will have an advantage in both areas vs. Rubio.

Positives for Rubio

• Former interim WBC Middleweight champion (lost title after failing to make weight for this fight).Oft underrated/overlooked fighter who is tough and very strong-willed. Experienced boxer who is arguably Golovkin's best opponent to date. 
• Naturally bigger fighter than Golovkin who has gone the distance with power punchers bigger than Golovkin (e.g., Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.). Fight could be competitive if he can impose his size and will on Golovkin and keep the fight on the inside.
• Powerful, heavy-handed boxer who counter punches well. 51 of his 59 wins have come by TKO/KO. Most effective punches are his straight jab and straight overhand right.
• Has beaten a fighter similar to Golovkin in David Lemieux. In April 2011, Lemieux was a highly regarded undefeated boxer who had won 24 of his 25 professional fights by knockout. Despite being a heavy underdog fighting in Lemieux's home town of Montreal, Rubio defeated Lemieux by 7th-round TKO despite Lemieux dominating the early the rounds.   
• Not great defensively, but uses high guard defense well to block punches. Hasn't been stopped in over 5 years.
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  

Negatives for Rubio

• Widely considered a "B" level fighter with good boxing skills, but on a level below elite fighters like Golovkin. Experienced, but has already lost/been knocked out multiple times vs. lesser fighters than Golovkin. In the past has lost decisively when stepping up to fight top-level opponents such as Chavez Jr. and Kelly Pavlik.
• Despite eventually winning by 10th-round TKO, did not look impressive in most recent fight vs. Domenico Spada.
• Relatively low-volume puncher who at times loses rounds due to inactivity. Can't afford to fall behind on the scorecards vs. a fighter like Golovkin.
• Flawed defensive fighter who lacks upper body movement. Will likely not be a difficult target for Golovkin's jab and combination punches. 
• While Rubio is known for his power punching, Golovkin has already fought a bigger puncher in Curtis Stevens, who he defeated decisively by TKO in 8 rounds.

Prefight Summary

This is not a tough fight to predict, but this is an intriguing matchup as Rubio is probably the best fighter Golovkin has ever fought in his professional career. Rubio is a very tough, gritty guy with good power whose size and experience could pose problems for Golovkin. If Rubio can survive the early rounds and impose his size and will on Golovkin in the later rounds, this fight could get very interesting. Rubio is currently a massive 36-1 underdog so it may be worth putting a small amount on him to pull off the upset, especially given that he's the more experienced fighter and will be fighting in the Los Angeles area in front of a crowd that will include a large number of Mexican fans rooting for him.

As a super-aggressive pressure fighter, Golovkin does at times leave himself open to counters; Rubio might be the guy that has the power and counter punching ability to withstand Golovkin's pressure. Again, if Rubio can get through the early rounds, Golovkin is largely untested in his pro career in mid to later rounds so the fight could be up for grabs if it gets to that point.

With all this said, I see this as being another very easy fight for Golovkin. Despite his toughness, Rubio at the end of the day is a B-level fighter with limited hand speed and defensive skills; as the fight progresses it will only be a matter of time before he succumbs to Golovkin's pressure. Rubio has lost decisively in the past every time he's stepped up to fight top-level power punchers (see his fights vs. Pavlik and Chavez Jr.) and I expect this fight to be no different.

Golovkin has never been knocked down or out in his amateur or professional career (approximately 380 fights) so even if Rubio were to catch him with some solid shots, I expect Golovkin to largely walk through Rubio's attack en route to an easy early to mid round TKO/KO victory. How impressive Golovkin looks against an experienced, proven veteran like Rubio - who happens to be trained by one of the top boxing trainers in the world in Robert Garcia - will go a long way in determining whether or not his name belongs up there with the top pound-for-pound boxers in the sport.

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO 

Mayweather vs. Maidana II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (46-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-4-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title, WBC light middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -725, Maidana +585 (5 Dimes, 9/13/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine welterweight and junior middleweight champion), Maidana - #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (46-0 record). Current WBC welterweight, WBC light middleweight, and WBA Super welterweight champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Already beat Maidana in previous fight in what was a competitive majority decision victory. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather outlanded the more aggressive Maidana (230 to 221) and landed at a significantly higher percentage of punches (54%  to 26%). Landing at least 50% of power punches is generally considered excellent; Mayweather landed 65% of his power punches (compared to Maidana's 34%). 
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Rematches tend to favor the more technically sound boxer; in fighting Maidana a second time one would expect the technically superior Mayweather to be more likely to make the adjustments necessary to make the rematch an easier fight. In the first fight, Mayweather had a rough time in the early rounds before making adjustments and dominating the second half of the fight (I scored 6 of the last 7 rounds for Mayweather) - will the rematch simply be a continuation of the second half of the previous fight now that Floyd knows what to expect?   
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the past two Maidana fights, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Kenny Bayless, who many consider the best referee in boxing, will ref the rematch vs. Maidana. Bayless is more likely to minimize much of the dirty fighting on the inside that occurred in the first fight (which appeared to favor Maidana).
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and will not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• In the first fight last May, Maidana gave Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career, arguably his toughest fight since the first Jose Luis Castillo fight in 2002. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana threw over twice as many punches (858 vs. 426) and landed more punches vs. Floyd than any other CompuBox-tracked opponent Floyd has fought. Maidana had a lot of success in the early rounds (particularly when backing Floyd into the corner of the ring). Many people saw the first fight as very close; one of the three judges even scored the fight a 114-114 draw. 
• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped too much). Mayweather's first fight with Maidana was one of the toughest fights of his career; if this was due at least in part to Mayweather's skills declining with age there is a good change Mayweather could have a similarly tough (or even tougher) fight ahead of him in the rematch.
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds and was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight.
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land. In the first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana landed 34% of his power punches - well above the 22% of power punches landed by previous Mayweather opponents throughout the course of his career. If an excellent KO puncher like Maidana can get the right punch to land, this is certainly a fight he could win by TKO/KO.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime. 
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana surprised the boxing world by giving Floyd his toughest fight since his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo over a decade ago. In the first fight, Maidana threw more than twice as many punches as Mayweather and landed more punches than any previous CompuBox-tracked Mayweather opponent. Some felt Maidana actually won the first fight vs. Mayweather; one of the three judges scored the fight a draw.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches. In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana was surprisingly effective with his overhand right punch and at backing Floyd into ring corners. 
• Highly confident boxer coming off of a competitive fight with the current #1 pound-for-pound boxer. Genuinely feels he could win the rematch vs. Mayweather with a few adjustments. Prior to the first fight vs. Mayweather, earned the best win of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last five fights. (Maidana is 4-1 under Robert Garcia with the lone loss coming in the previous fight vs. Mayweather.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Has reportedly improved his fitness for the upcoming rematch. Maidana tired in the 2nd half of the first Mayweather fight so improved endurance may result in better success in the 2nd half of the rematch compared to the first fight.
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. Was never seriously hurt in the first fight vs. Mayweather so may be willing to take more chances in rematch if he doesn't feel Mayweather has the power to hurt him. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. Has proven he's not intimidated by Mayweather's skill or dominance of the sport over the past 17+ years.
• Given his success in the first fight, the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will almost certainly be pro-Maidana, especially if he can repeat the success he had in the first few rounds of the previous fight in the rematch.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today. Despite his relative success in the first fight, Maidana is still at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. After struggling a bit early, Mayweather made adjustments and dominated the 2nd half of the first fight. Rematches tend to favor the technically superior boxer and Mayweather is one of the best technicians in the history of the sport; now that Mayweather has a better idea of what to expect from Maidana there is a good chance he'll be able to make any necessary adjustments early and win the rematch by an even wider margin than the first fight. 
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight. If Mayweather does a better job of keeping the fight in the center of the ring than he did in the first fight (and as Devon Alexander did in his domination of Maidana), he'll likely be able to control the fight with his movement and win a wide decision.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Mayweather struggled a bit in the early rounds with Maidana's awkward style but after figuring out Maidana's approach, rendered him largely ineffective through much of the 2nd half of the fight. If Mayweather does have Maidana figured out, there is a good chance the rematch will largely replicate the 2nd half of the first fight.
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana weighed in at 165 pounds the day of the fight, 17 pounds heavier than Mayweather (148 pounds). For the purposes of improved stamina for the later rounds, it's been reported Maidana may come in at a lighter weight for the rematch. This may result in improved endurance, but will Maidana be able to impose his physicality and back Mayweather into corners (where much of his success came in the first fight) at a lighter weight? 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. Although never seriously hurt in the first Mayweather fight, per CompuBox stats, Mayweather did land 65% of his power punches - and 54% of his punches overall - vs. Maidana, both exceptionally high percentages.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at. As noted above, Floyd landed punches at an exceptionally high rate in the first fight. 

Prefight Summary

Despite Mayweather's clear technical skill, talent, and speed advantages, Maidana fought a surprisingly competitive fight vs. Mayweather in their first fight last May. Maidana used his 17 pound weight advantage, power, and awkward ultra aggressive style to effectively pressure Mayweather against the ropes in what was one of the toughest fights of Mayweather's career. Mayweather, who has shown an uncanny ability to fight well against the ropes throughout much of his career (including relatively recent fights vs. Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and Victor Ortiz) looked unusually uncomfortable, having trouble with Maidana's power and physicality during much of the first half of the fight.

By the middle of the fight, however, the technically superior Mayweather made the adjustments necessary to to control the 2nd half of the fight - taking the fight from the ropes to the center of the ring, managing distance, and landing punches at an exceptionally high percentage. As in some of his previous losses, Maidana couldn't effectively sustain the high work rate achieved during the first half of the fight, getting outboxed in the second half of the fight after tiring in the later rounds.

As far as Maidana is concerned, something's got to give in the rematch. Reportedly Maidana, who weighed 17 pounds more than Mayweather in the first fight, will attempt to come in at a lighter weight for the rematch in the hopes of improving his stamina for the later rounds. But if Maidana comes in at a lighter weight, will he be still be able to be as physical and force Mayweather to fight from the corner as he did for much of the first fight? This strategy will likely be tougher to execute at a lighter weight, especially when you consider that the new referee for the rematch (Kenny Bayless) will probably focus on cleaning up much of the dirty infighting that occurred in the first fight. (In the first fight both fighters were guilty of overly physical tactics to an extent, though it seemed the sometimes dirty nature of the fight seemed to work in Maidana's favor.)

If, on the other hand, Maidana comes in at a similar weight and tries to fight the same fight I'd expect Mayweather to be better prepared for Maidana's style from his experience in the first fight and impose his technical skill and speed advantages earlier in the fight en route to an easier victory.

I see this rematch starting more as round 13 of the first fight than round 1 of a second fight. At the end of the day Maidana is largely a 1-dimensional fighter (albeit very effective 1-dimensional fighter); Mayweather had trouble with Maidana's style early in the first fight but he has enough experience and data on him now where I expect the adjustments Mayweather made in the second half of the last fight to carry over to the early rounds of the rematch. Over 90% of Maidana's wins have come by TKO/KO so Maidana always has a puncher's chance - especially if he can replicate the success he had in the first fight backing Mayweather into a corner. But I see this as a fight where Mayweather better knows what to expect out of Maidana from the first fight. With Mayweather likely making necessary adjustments earlier in the fight and the change in referee likely resulting in a "cleaner" fight than the first fight I expect Mayweather to win by a comfortable unanimous decision this time around.

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

Cotto vs. Martinez: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Miguel Cotto (38-4-0, 31 KOs) vs. Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: June 7, 2014
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC Middleweight title
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Cotto +188, Martinez -205 (5 Dimes, 6/6/14)
Purse: Cotto: $3 million (guaranteed $7 million after TV revenues),  Martinez: $1.5 million (guaranteed more in TV revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto - #3 ranked junior middleweight, Martinez - #7 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine middleweight champion)
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Martinez: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Positives for Cotto

• Current Ring Magazine #3 ranked junior middleweight. Future hall-of-famer who has won major world titles in three different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, and light middleweight).
• High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport. 
• One of the better offensive fighters in the boxing. Has good power in his left hand and throws combination punches very well. Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from the inside if needed.  
• Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Shane Mosley as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career. 
• Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden the day before the National Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is 7-1 when fighting at Madison Square Garden, including 4-0 the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day parade.  
• Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 6-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history.
• In terms of common opponents, Cotto has beaten Antonio Margarito - one of only two boxers who has beaten Martinez.

Negatives for Cotto

• Although six years younger than Martinez, Cotto is 33 years old and is not as good of a fighter as he was in his prime. Although he's rebounded a bit since then, Cotto has not appeared to be the elite fighter he once was since his TKO loss to Margarito in 2008.
• Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. The top southpaws Cotto has faced - Pacquiao, Zab Judah, and Austin Trout - landed over 50% of their combined power punches vs. Cotto. If a middleweight with power like Martinez has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be over quickly.
• Cotto is fighting at middleweight for the first time vs. one of the best middleweights of this generation (and probably one of the best in history) in Sergio Martinez, who has natural advantages in size, speed, reach, height, and possibly power. Cotto fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) for the majority of his career; will his power stay with him as he moves up to middleweight?   
• Although Cotto has consistently taken on very tough opponents, he has not had a win vs. a top fighter in his prime since his close split decision victory vs. Clottey in 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. 
• Cotto has questionable stamina; he has shown a tendency to tire later in fights, most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. 
• Cotto is a left-hand dominant boxer; he has very good power in his left hand but his right hand is generally not considered much of a threat in comparison. 
• Cotto has had troubles with the previous top southpaws he's faced (losses to both Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao, as well as troubles in some rounds of his win in 2007 vs. Zab Judah).

Positives for Martinez

• Current Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound fighter and top-ranked middleweight. Although he has not received the glory and publicity of other top ranked fighters, Martinez is a future hall-of-famer who will go down as one of the best middleweights of this generation. 
• At 39 years old, is still a freakishly athletic, mobile, high IQ boxer who can outbox or outpunch his opponents with a wide variety of techniques. Martinez moves around the ring as well as anyone in the sport and fights very well on both his front foot (when coming forward) and back foot (while moving backwards). 
• Martinez has lost only twice in his career - a close majority decision loss 4.5 years ago to former middleweight champion Paul Williams and a TKO loss 14 years ago to Antonio Margarito. Overall Martinez has won his last seven fights.
• Is highly adept at potshotting his opponents with the jab, while using his legs and reach advantage to stay out of range vs. counter attacks. (Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of jabs landed.) 
• Martinez has highly deceptive, brutal punching power in both hands; one-punch knockout power which he has used to KO former titleholders Paul Williams, Darren Barker, and Serhiy Dzinziruk for the first time in their careers. Martinez has knocked out bigger boxers than Cotto in his career (including the aforementioned three) so certainly a possibility Martinez could stop Cotto, who has been stopped twice before in his career.     
• Martinez has excellent hand speed, which is the main reason he is one of the best combination punchers in the sport. Martinez should be able to beat Cotto to the punch consistently.
• Martinez generally outworks his opponents in terms of punches thrown; would expect Martinez to throw more punches than Cotto, especially if the fight gets to later rounds when Cotto tends to tire a bit. Martinez attacks to the body very well, which will likely further compromise Cotto's stamina as the fight goes on. 
• A former cyclist, Martinez has excellent stamina which allows him to maintain his mobility and perform well in later rounds.  
• Fight will be fought at a catchweight (159 lbs), just below the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. Martinez is the naturally bigger, stronger fighter compared to Cotto and will be fighting at a weight where he has been one of the greats of his generation; whereas Cotto will be moving up in weight to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career. 
• Martinez is an experienced boxer who has fought a solid list of former world champions including Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik, Antonio Margarito, Darren Barker, Serhiy Dzinziruk, and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, compiling a record of 5-1-1 vs. these opponents.
• Martinez will be the heavier, taller, longer, faster, and quicker fighter and arguably more powerful puncher coming into the fight vs. Cotto. (These attributes will be difficult for Cotto to overcome.)
• Martinez is a determined fighter coming into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Despite being a current middleweight champion and pound-for-pound one of the best boxers in the sport, he feels disrespected by being referred to as the "B" side fighter in the upcoming match vs. the "A" side Cotto.

Negatives for Martinez

• Martinez has been (and still is) one of the best boxers in the world but is 39 years old and well past his prime. It is inevitable that Martinez's age will catch-up with him; will this be the fight where Martinez shows his age?
• Martinez has sustained a variety of injuries during fights over the past couple of years; Martinez tore ligaments in his right knee and broke his left hand in his fight vs. Julio Cesar Chavez in September 2012 and then re-injured the right knee and broke his left hand again in his most recent fight vs. Martin Murray. (Both knee injuries required surgery.) Martinez also suffered a left shoulder injury in the fight vs. Murray. Given his age and the fact that he relies on mobility and power punching to box, there is a decent possibility Martinez suffers another injury in the fight vs. Cotto. Will another injury affect the outcome of the fight? How well will Martinez's right knee and left hand hold up vs. Cotto, who will likely try to pressure Sergio and make the fight physical?
• Due to his aforementioned injury problems, Martinez has been relatively inactive over the past couple of years. Martinez hasn't fought in over a year (April 2013) and has only fought twice in the past two years. Ring rust may be an issue; how good will a 39-year old Martinez look after a layoff of over a year?  
• Martinez has shown vulnerability in recent fights. Despite fighting in his home country vs. a huge underdog, Martinez looked unimpressive in a close decision victory vs. Martin Murray, even getting knocked down in the 8th round. Martinez has been knocked down in each of his past three fights (vs. Murray, Chavez Jr., and Dzinziruk) so is certainly susceptible to being knocked down vs. a power puncher like Cotto.
• Martinez is outstanding at using his legs and reach to elude his opponents' attacks but defensively he's a fundamentally flawed fighter. Martinez fights with his hands down and chin exposed which leaves him open to clean punches when his opponents catch up to him. Opponents land nearly 40% of power punches vs. Martinez, one of the highest percentages amongst CompuBox-tracked boxers. This may be a problem vs. an offensively efficient fighter like Cotto.

Prefight Summary

 Unless Martinez's age has finally caught up to him or he is still affected by his recurring hand and knee injuries, I think this will be an easy fight for Martinez. The bottom line with this fight is Martinez is naturally much bigger than Cotto - who will be fighting at middleweight for the first time - and is either slightly better or much better than Cotto at just about every other aspect of boxing.

Cotto has had problems in the past vs. top-level southpaws with good speed (see Manny Pacquiao, Austin Trout, and stretches of the Zab Judah fight), allowing them combined to land over 50% of their power punches. I expect Cotto's defensive flaws to be magnified vs. a bigger boxer in Martinez, who also has very good hand speed and throws some of the best combinations in boxing.

Cotto may have a game plan to pressure Martinez and beat him on the inside with a body attack. I don't see Cotto having sustained success with this game plan vs. a bigger, stronger guy like Martinez. If Cotto tries to pressure Martinez, I expect Sergio's crisp counterpunching to eventually wear Cotto down in the mid to late rounds. Martinez is a determined fighter who is not only more skilled than Cotto, but is fighting with a chip on his shoulder due to feeling disrespected in the prefight negotiations so I don't see Martinez letting this fight get away from him. Cotto is an aggressive boxer who packs a powerful punch, but I don't see his power at middleweight comparing to true middleweight power such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Martin Murray, or Matthew Macklin, who were all able to knockdown Martinez in the later rounds of recent fights, but were unable to finish him.

Again, the big concern I have in this fight is whether or not Martinez finally shows his age and whether or not the injuries that have affected him in his last two fights recur again. If they do, this fight is certainly up in the air and Cotto could get the stoppage. But if Martinez stays healthy throughout the fight I fully expect the bigger, more skilled Martinez to beat Cotto by TKO/KO, if not a wide unanimous decision. A prime Miguel Cotto I would give a chance in this fight, not the slowed down 33-year old version we'll be seeing on Saturday.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO/KO or Decision

Froch vs. Groves: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Carl Froch (32-2, 23 KOs) vs. George Groves (19-1-0, 15 KOs)
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: May 31, 2014
Weight class: Super Middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF Super Middleweight title, WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Froch -165, Groves +155 (5 Dimes, 5/30/14)
Purse: Froch: ,  Groves:
Ring Magazine Rankings: Froch - #10 ranked pound-for-pound (#1 ranked super middleweight), Groves - #5 ranked super middleweight
Style: Froch: Orthodox, Groves: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Positives for Froch

• Current Ring Magazine #10 pound-for-pound fighter.Tough, strong-willed boxer with one of the elite chins in the sport. Current IBF and WBA super middleweight champion.
• Highly experienced fighter. Over the past 4.5 years, has faced as tough competition as anyone in boxing, and has an impressive record of 11-2 in that span, losing only to undefeated current #2 pound-for-pound fighter Andre Ward and former 4-time super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler (in Kessler's home country of Denmark). Those two losses are the only losses of Froch's career.
• Aggressive boxer with a very good jab. Per CompuBox stats, is one of the top boxers in the sport in terms of number of jabs thrown and landed.
• Powerful, high-volume boxer with grade A stamina. Nearly always outworks his opponent (which often helps on points in close fights). 
• Highly confident boxer who fights with tremendous heart. Has been knocked down twice in his career (including his last fight vs. Groves), but recuperated in both fights to win in the later rounds by TKO.Has shown a tendency to come on in later rounds after slow starts.
• Outstanding chin. Has been knocked down twice but has never been stopped (or been in real danger of being stopped) in his career. 

Negatives for Froch

• Froch has a tremendous chin and fights with great heart, but his boxing skills and athleticism are far from top-level; in major fights Froch is usually the inferior fighter in terms of skill.
• Though he ultimately won by TKO, Froch was decisively outboxed by Groves in their previous fight last November. Groves landed the left jab and overhand right with ease vs. Froch in the previous fight (particularly in the early rounds); unless Froch makes significant adjustments defensively, Groves will likely have similar success outboxing Froch in the upcoming fight.
• Froch lacks solid hand and foot speed; Groves will likely beat him to the punch as he did in the previous fight. Froch's best weapon is his jab, a punch he had trouble landing vs. the quicker Groves.
• Defensively, Froch is a highly flawed fighter with subpar footwork and head movement. Per CompuBox stats, Froch's opponents land 41% of power punches vs. Froch, 5th-worst among CompuBox-tracked boxers. 
• Froch is 36 years old entering a fight vs. a guy 10 years his junior who is arguably just entering the prime of his career.

Positives for Groves

• Former Commonwealth and British super middleweight titleholder. Slick, aggressive boxer with top-level technical skills. Has good hand/foot speed and very good punching power in both hands. 
• Has lost only once in his career, although the loss was by 9th-round TKO to Froch. Despite losing, Groves did clearly outbox Froch throughout the majority of the nine rounds and was winning the fight on all three judges' scorecards at the time of the stoppage. 
• This will be Groves' 2nd fight vs. Froch. Generally, rematches favor the more technically skilled fighter, who is more apt to make the adjustments necessary to win the fight. Groves not only has the advantage in skill vs. Froch, he has better hand/foot speed and arguably even has a more powerful punch than Froch. In the last fight vs. Froch, Groves consistently beat Froch to the punch, landing his left jab and overhand right seemingly at will during some stretches of the fight.
• Groves is solid defensively. Uses his foot speed to stay out of his opponent's range when he needs to. Did lose by TKO in his last fight vs. Froch but the stoppage was highly questionable. Groves has never been knocked down in his career.
• Groves is 26 years old (10 years younger than Froch) and entering the prime of his career. Although Groves lacks Froch's experience, he has fought very solid competition such as James DeGale and Glen Johnson, beating both by decision. 

Negatives for Groves

• Groves' chin is questionable after the TKO in his last fight vs. Froch. Although the stoppage was questionable, Froch did land some massive power punches which had Groves in trouble. If Froch can stop Groves once, he can certainly do it again. 
• Groves has shown stamina issues in previous fights (including the last fight vs. Froch) whereas Froch's punches are as powerful in later rounds as they are in the early stages of fights. If Groves again tires late in the fight, another late round stoppage is possible.
• In prefight appearances, Groves appears confident to the point of perhaps being overconfident. Groves has indicated he will stand in and trade in an attempt to win by knockout, which may prove to be the wrong strategy vs. a power puncher such as Froch.
• Compared to Froch, Groves is relatively inexperienced. Froch's experience and will-to-win may be the difference if the fight is close. 

Prefight Summary

This one is tough to predict. Potential fight-of-the-year candidate that could go either way. On the one hand you have George Groves, clearly the technically superior, faster boxer, who should have success outboxing Froch through a good portion of this fight (as he did in the previous fight). If Groves stays patient, uses his speed advantage to control distance, keeping this a pure boxing match (as opposed to a brawl), he will likely win a comfortable decision, if not get the TKO/KO at some point during the fight. Groves looked impressive in outboxing Froch throughout most of their first fight; he (and most boxing fans) felt the early stoppage in the previous fight was unfair and he will definitely be fighting with a chip on his shoulder in the rematch.

On the other hand you have Carl Froch, the veteran warrior with a granite chin and unquestionable heart. Despite Groves dominating much of the first fight and landing numerous clean power punches, Froch still found a way to win via TKO. Although the 9th round stoppage was highly controversial, Froch did clearly have Groves in trouble in that round and the fight appeared to be turning in Froch's favor with Groves tiring. If the fight hadn't been stopped at that point, it highly possible Froch would've earned a legitimate stoppage later in the fight or won on the scorecards if he controlled the last three rounds.

This matchup is nothing new for Froch; Froch has fought numerous top-level fighters who were considered technically superior with a speed advantage, and has beaten most, including Groves in their first fight.

I think this matchup will come down to Groves and the approach he takes in the fight. If Groves chooses to stay within distance of Froch and trade punches in the hopes of winning by TKO/KO (as he has indicated he may do in pre-fight appearances), I think Froch's chin will be able to withstand Grove's barrage and see the most likely scenario being Froch by mid/late round stoppage as Groves tires. But if Groves keeps his distance and boxes Froch (as he did in his fight vs. DeGale and as he did through much of the first fight with Froch), I believe Groves' skill and speed advantages should result in a clear decision in his favor.

 Ultimately, I think Groves will choose to fight a smart fight and outbox Froch from the outside, using his hand speed to beat Froch to the punch and using his foot speed to avoid Froch's power from close range. Froch has always been slow-footed and flawed defensively so I expect Groves will be able to land the same quality of punches he landed in the previous fight. Over the course of 12 rounds, Froch could certainly catch up to Groves at some point and end the fight early again with a heavy punch but I think Groves will be more cautious this time around.

In terms of betting, I favor Groves only slightly; this is a 55/45 fight that could go either way. But with Groves being a +155 underdog in a coin-flip matchup, my money will definitely be on Groves, who at the end of the day is the better boxer.    

Prediction: Groves by decision