Mayweather vs. Maidana II: prefight analysis and prediction

Fight: Floyd Mayweather (46-0-0, 26 KOs) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-4-0, 31 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 13, 2014
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC welterweight title, WBA Super World Welterweight title, WBC light middleweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Mayweather -725, Maidana +585 (5 Dimes, 9/13/14)
Purse: Mayweather: $32 million,  Maidana: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Floyd Mayweather - #1 ranked pound-for-pound (Ring Magazine welterweight and junior middleweight champion), Maidana - #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Maidana: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered the greatest boxer of this generation. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (46-0 record). Current WBC welterweight, WBC light middleweight, and WBA Super welterweight champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive technique makes him nearly impossible to hit cleanly. Per CompuBox stats, opponents land only 18% of punches vs. Mayweather, the 2nd lowest percentage landed amongst all CompuBox-tracked boxers. (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.) Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. 
• Possibly the most efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands 42% of punches thrown, which leads all CompuBox-tracked boxers. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Already beat Maidana in previous fight in what was a competitive majority decision victory. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather outlanded the more aggressive Maidana (230 to 221) and landed at a significantly higher percentage of punches (54%  to 26%). Landing at least 50% of power punches is generally considered excellent; Mayweather landed 65% of his power punches (compared to Maidana's 34%). 
• Counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Rematches tend to favor the more technically sound boxer; in fighting Maidana a second time one would expect the technically superior Mayweather to be more likely to make the adjustments necessary to make the rematch an easier fight. In the first fight, Mayweather had a rough time in the early rounds before making adjustments and dominating the second half of the fight (I scored 6 of the last 7 rounds for Mayweather) - will the rematch simply be a continuation of the second half of the previous fight now that Floyd knows what to expect?   
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Has been criticized for the quality of his opponents but the majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past seven years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the past two Maidana fights, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Kenny Bayless, who many consider the best referee in boxing, will ref the rematch vs. Maidana. Bayless is more likely to minimize much of the dirty fighting on the inside that occurred in the first fight (which appeared to favor Maidana).
• At 37 years old, Mayweather is in excellent shape, trains very hard, and will not overlook any opponent - even a heavy underdog like Maidana.

Negatives for Mayweather

• In the first fight last May, Maidana gave Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career, arguably his toughest fight since the first Jose Luis Castillo fight in 2002. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana threw over twice as many punches (858 vs. 426) and landed more punches vs. Floyd than any other CompuBox-tracked opponent Floyd has fought. Maidana had a lot of success in the early rounds (particularly when backing Floyd into the corner of the ring). Many people saw the first fight as very close; one of the three judges even scored the fight a 114-114 draw. 
• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 37 years old, a few years past his prime, and doesn't have quite the power and speed he had when he was younger (though his power and speed haven't slipped too much). Mayweather's first fight with Maidana was one of the toughest fights of his career; if this was due at least in part to Mayweather's skills declining with age there is a good change Mayweather could have a similarly tough (or even tougher) fight ahead of him in the rematch.
• Low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was the case in his fight last year vs. Robert Guerrero, in which he arguably lost the first two rounds and was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds. Per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight.
• While Mayweather rarely gets hit cleanly, he has in the past shown susceptibility to power punches when they land. Whereas Canelo Alvarez was more low-volume, Maidana is a very high-volume power puncher which makes it possible he'll give Mayweather trouble at some point during the fight if he can get some of his punches to land. In the first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana landed 34% of his power punches - well above the 22% of power punches landed by previous Mayweather opponents throughout the course of his career. If an excellent KO puncher like Maidana can get the right punch to land, this is certainly a fight he could win by TKO/KO.

Positives for Maidana

• Excellent power puncher with legitimate KO power in both hands. (31 of his 35 wins have come by KO.) One of the best KO boxers in the sport. Is capable of defeating Mayweather by TKO/KO if he can land some power punches. Maidana is currently in the prime of his career, while Mayweather is a few years past his prime. 
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana surprised the boxing world by giving Floyd his toughest fight since his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo over a decade ago. In the first fight, Maidana threw more than twice as many punches as Mayweather and landed more punches than any previous CompuBox-tracked Mayweather opponent. Some felt Maidana actually won the first fight vs. Mayweather; one of the three judges scored the fight a draw.
• Very aggressive, high-volume puncher who is adept at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. Maidana's best punches are his right uppercut, left hook, and overhand right. Punches from awkward angles which makes it very difficult to anticipate his punches. In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana was surprisingly effective with his overhand right punch and at backing Floyd into ring corners. 
• Highly confident boxer coming off of a competitive fight with the current #1 pound-for-pound boxer. Genuinely feels he could win the rematch vs. Mayweather with a few adjustments. Prior to the first fight vs. Mayweather, earned the best win of his career in defeating previously undefeated Adrien Broner for the WBA World welterweight title, a fight in which he knocked Adrien Broner down twice. (Broner had previously never been knocked down in his career.)
• Trainer is Robert Garcia, who is considered one of the elite trainers in boxing. Garcia was the 2012 BWAA Trainer of the Year and was voted Ring Magazine Trainer of the Year for 2012 and 2013.  
• Maidana appears to have significantly improved his technical boxing skills - in particular his jab and body attack - under Garcia, who has trained him for his last five fights. (Maidana is 4-1 under Robert Garcia with the lone loss coming in the previous fight vs. Mayweather.) Maidana's defense has also improved a bit under Garcia.   
• Has reportedly improved his fitness for the upcoming rematch. Maidana tired in the 2nd half of the first Mayweather fight so improved endurance may result in better success in the 2nd half of the rematch compared to the first fight.
• Solid chin. Has been knocked down a few times in his career but has never been stopped. Has shown a tendency to fight well after being knocked down or facing pressure. Was never seriously hurt in the first fight vs. Mayweather so may be willing to take more chances in rematch if he doesn't feel Mayweather has the power to hurt him. 
• Gritty boxer who fights with a lot of heart/determination. Has proven he's not intimidated by Mayweather's skill or dominance of the sport over the past 17+ years.
• Given his success in the first fight, the crowd at the MGM Grand Garden arena will almost certainly be pro-Maidana, especially if he can repeat the success he had in the first few rounds of the previous fight in the rematch.

Negatives for Maidana

• Maidana is a very solid, but far from elite boxer fighting an opponent in Mayweather who is universally considered the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today. Despite his relative success in the first fight, Maidana is still at a clear disadvantage vs. Mayweather in terms of talent, skill, and speed. After struggling a bit early, Mayweather made adjustments and dominated the 2nd half of the first fight. Rematches tend to favor the technically superior boxer and Mayweather is one of the best technicians in the history of the sport; now that Mayweather has a better idea of what to expect from Maidana there is a good chance he'll be able to make any necessary adjustments early and win the rematch by an even wider margin than the first fight. 
• Maidana has had trouble in the past with fighters who move well on their feet (see Maidana's fight vs. Devon Alexander, in which he lost 10 out of 10 rounds on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards). Mayweather moves as well on his feet as anyone in the sport (or anyone in the sport's history for that matter). Although he throws more punches, Maidana is slower on foot than even the flat-footed Canelo Alvarez, who was unable to catch up to Mayweather in Mayweather's last fight. If Mayweather does a better job of keeping the fight in the center of the ring than he did in the first fight (and as Devon Alexander did in his domination of Maidana), he'll likely be able to control the fight with his movement and win a wide decision.
• Although one of the deadliest fighters in the sport pound-for-pound, Maidana is largely a one-dimensional boxer who is very predictable in his approach. (Come-forward, straight line puncher.) Maidana throws many of his punches from awkward, unpredictable angles, but he often telegraphs his punches with his wind-up movement and generally has to be stationary to set up one of his power punches. Mayweather struggled a bit in the early rounds with Maidana's awkward style but after figuring out Maidana's approach, rendered him largely ineffective through much of the 2nd half of the fight. If Mayweather does have Maidana figured out, there is a good chance the rematch will largely replicate the 2nd half of the first fight.
• In his first fight vs. Mayweather, Maidana weighed in at 165 pounds the day of the fight, 17 pounds heavier than Mayweather (148 pounds). For the purposes of improved stamina for the later rounds, it's been reported Maidana may come in at a lighter weight for the rematch. This may result in improved endurance, but will Maidana be able to impose his physicality and back Mayweather into corners (where much of his success came in the first fight) at a lighter weight? 
• Although he has improved somewhat, Maidana is a poor fighter defensively. Maidana's aggressiveness often leaves his head and body exposed to counter punches. (The three times Maidana has been knocked down has been the result of body shots.) Maidana's defense is particularly weak on the inside, as was shown in the Devon Alexander fight. Although never seriously hurt in the first Mayweather fight, per CompuBox stats, Mayweather did land 65% of his power punches - and 54% of his punches overall - vs. Maidana, both exceptionally high percentages.   
• Maidana's often throws wild punches. which sometimes leaves him out of position and open to the type of counterpunching Floyd excels at. As noted above, Floyd landed punches at an exceptionally high rate in the first fight. 

Prefight Summary

Despite Mayweather's clear technical skill, talent, and speed advantages, Maidana fought a surprisingly competitive fight vs. Mayweather in their first fight last May. Maidana used his 17 pound weight advantage, power, and awkward ultra aggressive style to effectively pressure Mayweather against the ropes in what was one of the toughest fights of Mayweather's career. Mayweather, who has shown an uncanny ability to fight well against the ropes throughout much of his career (including relatively recent fights vs. Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero, and Victor Ortiz) looked unusually uncomfortable, having trouble with Maidana's power and physicality during much of the first half of the fight.

By the middle of the fight, however, the technically superior Mayweather made the adjustments necessary to to control the 2nd half of the fight - taking the fight from the ropes to the center of the ring, managing distance, and landing punches at an exceptionally high percentage. As in some of his previous losses, Maidana couldn't effectively sustain the high work rate achieved during the first half of the fight, getting outboxed in the second half of the fight after tiring in the later rounds.

As far as Maidana is concerned, something's got to give in the rematch. Reportedly Maidana, who weighed 17 pounds more than Mayweather in the first fight, will attempt to come in at a lighter weight for the rematch in the hopes of improving his stamina for the later rounds. But if Maidana comes in at a lighter weight, will he be still be able to be as physical and force Mayweather to fight from the corner as he did for much of the first fight? This strategy will likely be tougher to execute at a lighter weight, especially when you consider that the new referee for the rematch (Kenny Bayless) will probably focus on cleaning up much of the dirty infighting that occurred in the first fight. (In the first fight both fighters were guilty of overly physical tactics to an extent, though it seemed the sometimes dirty nature of the fight seemed to work in Maidana's favor.)

If, on the other hand, Maidana comes in at a similar weight and tries to fight the same fight I'd expect Mayweather to be better prepared for Maidana's style from his experience in the first fight and impose his technical skill and speed advantages earlier in the fight en route to an easier victory.

I see this rematch starting more as round 13 of the first fight than round 1 of a second fight. At the end of the day Maidana is largely a 1-dimensional fighter (albeit very effective 1-dimensional fighter); Mayweather had trouble with Maidana's style early in the first fight but he has enough experience and data on him now where I expect the adjustments Mayweather made in the second half of the last fight to carry over to the early rounds of the rematch. Over 90% of Maidana's wins have come by TKO/KO so Maidana always has a puncher's chance - especially if he can replicate the success he had in the first fight backing Mayweather into a corner. But I see this as a fight where Mayweather better knows what to expect out of Maidana from the first fight. With Mayweather likely making necessary adjustments earlier in the fight and the change in referee likely resulting in a "cleaner" fight than the first fight I expect Mayweather to win by a comfortable unanimous decision this time around.

Prediction: Mayweather by decision