Fight: Miguel Cotto (39-4, 32 KOs) vs. Daniel Geale (31-3, 16 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: June 6, 2015
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs); fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs
Title(s) on the line: WBC World Middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Cotto: -620, Geale: +515 (5 Dimes, 6/6/15)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Cotto: Ring Magazine middleweight champion; Geale: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Cotto: Orthodox, Geale: Orthodox
Positives for Cotto
Negatives for Cotto
Positives for Geale
Negatives for Geale
Summary/Prediction
Positives for Cotto
- Current WBC and Ring Magazine champion in the middleweight (160 lbs) division. Future hall-of-famer who is the only Puerto Rican to have won major world titles in four different weight classes (light welterweight, welterweight, light middleweight, and middleweight). One of the best boxers of this generation.
- High IQ, cautiously aggressive fighter with one of the best left hooks in boxing. (Cotto's left hook is particularly effective going to the body.) Stocky, physically strong boxer who pressures well to the body; Cotto is widely considered one of the best body punchers in the sport.
- One of the better offensive fighters in boxing. Has good power in both hands - especially his left - and throws combination punches very well. Has a deceptively powerful, accurate lead jab. Cotto has won 32 of his 43 fights by TKO/KO, a higher career TKO/KO percentage (74.4%) than current notable heavy punchers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, and Carl Froch. Cotto's last five wins have been by TKO/KO.
- Versatile fighter who can outbox opponents from the outside or outpunch his opponents from inside if needed. Naturally left-handed fighter who mostly fights from the orthodox position, but is capable at fighting from southpaw stance as needed. (Is adept at adjusting his range and stance based on his opponent.)
- Technically sound fighter who will possess a speed, skill, and power advantage vs. Geale.
- Very experienced boxer who over the past decade has faced arguably the toughest competition of anyone in boxing. Has fought future hall-of-famers Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Shane Mosley, and Sergio Martinez as well as former champions such as Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito (twice), and Ricardo Mayorga. In his most recent fight (June 2014), upset then Ring Magazine #7 pound-for-pound middleweight champion Sergio Martinez - who hadn't lost since 2009 and had lost only one fight since 2000 - via 10th round stoppage. Two years ago (May 2012), Cotto gave #1 pound-for-pound Mayweather one of the toughest fights of his career.
- Will be fighting in front of a largely Puerto Rican, pro-Cotto crowd at Barclays Center as the official kickoff event for National Puerto Rican Day parade week. Cotto is 9-1 when fighting in New York City, including 5-0 the week of the Puerto Rican Day parade.
- Is currently trained by Freddie Roach, the 7-time Boxing Writers Association of America trainer of the year who is widely considered one of the best trainers in boxing history. After two consecutive losses in 2012 and contemplating retirement, has rejuvenated his career (and confidence) since hiring Roach with two straight TKO victories and earning his first middleweight championship.
Negatives for Cotto
- Cotto is 34 years old and hasn't fought in nearly a year; how will the long layoff affect his performance? Although he has resurrected his career with a couple of nice victories, he's not the elite pound-for-pound ranked fighter he was in his prime. (Cotto's power and speed have declined a bit over the past few years.)
- Cotto is a gifted fighter offensively but has questionable defensive skills. Cotto often neglects head movement, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also per CompuBox stats, opponents land nearly 40% of their power punches vs. Cotto, one of the highest percentages among CompuBox-tracked boxers. If a rugged, high volume middleweight like Geale has similar success landing power punches, this fight will likely be much closer than expected.
- Cotto is fighting at middleweight for only the second time in his career vs. one of the best middleweights in the world in Daniel Geale, who will come into this fight with significant advantages in size, reach, and height. Cotto beat one of the best middleweights in boxing history in his most recent fight vs. Martinez but how good was his win vs. Martinez? At the time, Martinez was a 39-year old fighter well past his prime with a debilitating knee injury that clearly affected his performance (and will lead to a probable retirement in the near future). How will Cotto, who spent the majority of his career at light welterweight (140lbs) and welterweight (147 lbs) fare vs. a younger, healthier, more durable opponent who will likely enter the ring at over 170 lbs on fight night? I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotto have problems with Geale's combination of toughness, size, reach, and skill.
- Cotto is a battle-worn fighter who has been through numerous wars and has at times been tested vs. bigger fighters with good boxing skills. In front of a largely pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden, Cotto lost a clear unanimous decision to Austin Trout in December 2012. He won a close split decision victory vs. Joshua Clottey in June 2009 - a fight many felt that Clottey won. Geale is a bigger, highly-ranked contender that is comparable to Trout and Clottey in both skill and reach advantage.
- Cotto gets cut easily due to the scar tissue above both his eyes. If the larger, high volume puncher Geale stays busy and gets Cotto's face bleeding in the early or mid rounds the blood could certainly negatively affect Cotto's performance (as well as boost Geale's confidence).
- Cotto has shown questionable stamina in the past, having a tendency to tire later in fights - most notably his TKO loss to Margarito where he lost despite dominating the early rounds. Cotto also noticeably tired in the later rounds in his fights vs. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, losing all of the later rounds in both fights and getting stopped by Pacquiao in the 12th round of their fight.
Positives for Geale
- Current Ring Magazine #4 middleweight fighter. Three-time former middleweight champion who has been ranked among Ring Magazine's top 5 middleweights since 2010. Solid high-volume, come-forward fighter with good foot movement for his size.
- Experienced, gritty fighter with an effective jab from range but is also more than willing to stay in the pocket and exchange inside. Throws overhand rights and hooks well behind his jab. Is a good body puncher with solid overall boxing skills.
- Geale has only lost three times in 34 career fights with two of the losses by highly competitive, controversial split decisions (August 2013 loss to Darren Barker and May 2009 loss to Anthony Mundine). Has fought and beaten solid competition, including a split decision victory vs. then middleweight champion Felix Sturm in Sturm's home country of Germany and a unanimous decision victory in his rematch with Mundine in Mundine's home city of Sydney, Australia.
- Unlike Cotto, is a true middleweight and will come into this fight as the larger man with a 3" height advantage and 4" reach advantage. May weigh up to 175 lbs on fight night, which will likely give him a 10-15 pound advantage vs. Cotto. Cotto has had trouble in some previous fights vs. larger, longer fighters with good movement (most notably his December 2012 loss vs. Trout).
- Is a durable fighter with a fairly good chin and pretty good head movement. Geale's only loss by TKO/KO was to Gennady Golovkin, the current Ring Magazine #4 pound-for-pound boxer who holds the highest TKO/KO percentage in middleweight boxing history (90.9%). Despite the TKO/KO loss, Geale exchanged effectively at times and at times made Golovkin miss punches wildly with his movement. Other than the loss to Golovkin, Geale has never come close to being stopped.
- Has good stamina, which could come into play vs. Cotto, who has a history of tiring in later rounds.
- Generally unflappable fighter who has experience beating heavily favored opponents in front of hostile crowds (see his upset victory vs. then middleweight champion Sturm, who had a 14-fight unbeaten streak before losing to Geale).
- Geale is an over 5-1 underdog for a reason. He is the technically inferior fighter and will also have a power and speed disadvantage vs. Cotto. Geale is coming from another continent to fight in front of a hostile, pro-Cotto fight on the biggest stage of his career vs. the much more experienced Cotto, who is used to the big stage. Cotto lost in December 2012 to a larger, similarly skilled opponent to Geale in Trout but Trout was a southpaw with quicker movement than Geale; it will be tough for Geale to overcome Cotto's speed advantage.
- Cotto is defensively flawed but Geale is not a big puncher (only 16 wins by TKO/KO in 34 fights) so likely isn't a serious threat to exploit Cotto's flaws and stop or hurt Cotto badly.
- Despite being a middleweight (160 lbs) title fight, the fight is being fought at a catchweight of 157 lbs which required Geale, a natural middleweight, to cut more weight than usual - which he reportedly had trouble doing. Athletes (especially boxers who generally have a low body fat percentage to begin with) cutting weight below their natural size often leads to dehydration and muscle loss, which could affect Geale's stamina and overall performance in tonight's fight.
- Like Cotto, Geale has his share of defensive deficiencies. Often drops his hands and can be slow to put up his guard after throwing punches, which leaves him susceptible to counter punching. Also doesn't protect his body well; Geale is a competent fighter in the pocket but against a great body puncher like Cotto will probably take the worst of exchanges on the inside, where Cotto's shorter height and short punches are actually an advantage vs. a taller boxer like Geale.
- Geale is a durable fighter with an above average chin but he has been knocked down in at least five fights in his career, including twice in last year's TKO loss to Golovkin.
Prefight Summary
If you believe Cotto's surprising TKO victory last year vs. Sergio Martinez was an impressive win vs. a sufficiently able-bodied, top 10 pound-for-pound all-time great middleweight then you have little reason to believe tonight's fight vs. a lesser opponent in Geale will result in anything other than a wide unanimous decision or stoppage for Cotto. Cotto is the more experienced, skilled fighter with the power and speed advantage facing a fighter who - while bigger than he is - doesn't have much punching power and has defensive flaws that will leave him susceptible to Cotto's vicious body attack. While Geale has good movement, he is by nature often more than willing to stay in the pocket and trade punches, which will likely be to his detriment vs. the quicker, more accurate Cotto who is one of the best body punchers in the sport. If you believe this version of Cotto, who has been dominant in his last two fights since switching to trainer Freddie Roach a couple years ago, is a reincarnation of prime Miguel Cotto then there's little reason to think this will be a difficult fight for him,
But I think Cotto is being overvalued, while Geale is being undervalued coming into this fight. The reality is Cotto is past his prime and coming off a year-long layoff after beating a 39-year old fighter in Martinez who came into the fight with a debilitating knee issue. While Cotto looked good in the fight, it was clear Martinez was severely limited due to the knee injury and even then Cotto was unable to stop Sergio until the 10th round after knocking him down three times way back in the 1st round. Cotto has fought better in his last couple of fights after the consecutive losses to Mayweather and Trout in 2012 (which left him contemplating retirement), but the reality is he does not have the same power or speed at 34 years old that made him an elite fighter in his prime.
Geale is being undervalued largely due to relative lack of name recognition and Golovkin making him look like a journeyman in his dominant 3rd round TKO victory over Geale last year (most thought Geale would put up a better fight), but the reality is Geale has been a highly regarded, top-ranked middleweight for many years. The fight with Golovkin is the only fight of Geale's career where he's been stopped; other than Golovkin, Geale's only other losses were controversial split-decision losses vs. very solid opponents in Anthony Mundine and Darren Barker.
I actually think Geale has a realistic chance to win this fight. He is a tough, savvy veteran with good foot movement who should be able to use his size and reach advantage to frustrate the defensively flawed Cotto in spots. Geale is volume puncher with an effective jab and follows up with punches behind his jab (in particular his overhand right and left hook) well. If Geale can be effective with his punch combinations and cut Cotto early (Cotto has a history of bleeding easily due mostly to the scar tissue above his eyes) the fight could potentially get interesting - especially in the later rounds where Cotto is known to tire. With his reach advantage, volume punching, and movement, Geale has the skills to box with Cotto from range but also has the size and toughness to outmuscle the quicker but smaller Cotto inside.
While I feel this is a winnable fight for Geale, I think Cotto's top-level skill, heavy-handed body punching, and speed will be too much for Geale, whose (lack of) power poses little threat as a counter for Cotto's attack. Despite Geale's reach advantage and ability to move on his feet, Cotto is faster and should be able to get inside on Geale to land the effective shots necessary to earn a competitive but clear decision victory in front of what will be a Cotto-friendly crowd at Barclays. Cotto's last five victories have actually come via TKO but Cotto, especially at this stage of his career, is no Golovkin - I don't see him knocking out a true middleweight (who will likely outweight him by 10-15 lbs by the time of the fight) who is durable and moves as well as Geale.
With this said, I do think Geale's size, movement, and reach make the current 7-1 odds for Geale to win the fight by 12-round decision a good value bet so I strongly recommend this play as a smaller hedge with Cotto by 12-round decision at 1.4-1 odds as the primary bet (both bets are available at 5 Dimes). For example if risking $100 on Cotto to win the by decision, I would hedge the play with a $10-15 bet on Geale to win by decision at 7-1 to cover any potential losses from the Cotto bet.
Either way I think this will be a good fight that will go the distance so a simpler, less risky alternative play would be to bet that the fight goes the distance (currently -120 at 5 Dimes).
Final thought is to be aware that two key questions make this fight somewhat risky to bet: 1) How will a 34-year old Cotto perform after a one-year layoff from fighting? and 2) How will the 157 lb catchweight affect Geale, who apparently struggled to make weight and hasn't fought below 160 lbs in years?
Prediction: Cotto by decision
[Recommended Hedge: Geale by decision (+714)]
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