Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: prefight analysis and prediction

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Fight: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 2, 2015
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC, WBO, and WBA Super World welterweight titles
TV: HBO and Showtime PPV (joint venture)
Line: Mayweather: -190, Pacquiao: +175 (5 Dimes, 5/2/15)
Estimated Earnings: Mayweather: $180 million, Pacquiao: $120 million (based on 60/40 split of estimated $300 million in revenues)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Mayweather: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, Ring Magazine welterweight champion and junior middleweight champion; Pacquiao: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked welterweight
Style: Mayweather: Orthodox, Pacquiao: Southpaw
Referee: Kenny Bayless


Positives for Mayweather
Negatives for Mayweather
Positives for Pacquiao
Negatives for Pacquiao
Summary/Prediction

Positives for Mayweather

• Current Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Master technician who is one of the greatest boxers in the history of the sport. Has been ranked #1 pound-for-pound for much of the past decade and is widely considered one of the top two boxers - if not the top boxer - of this generation. Has won 10 world titles across 5 weight divisions. Future first ballot hall-of-famer and has yet to lose a fight (47-0 record). Current WBC, WBA, and Ring Magazine welterweight (147 lbs) champion, and WBC Super, WBA, and Ring Magazine junior middleweight (154 lbs) champion. 
• One of the great defensive fighters in the history of the sport. Excellent footwork, speed, and defensive techniques make him very difficult to hit cleanly. Mayweather has mastered the shoulder roll, pull counter, and a variety of other defensive techniques to the extent that his opponents consistently miss punches even when they have him pinned to a corner of the ring. Per CompuBox stats, Mayweather opponents land the 2nd lowest percentage of punches of all CompuBox-tracked boxers.  (Only opponents of Guillermo Rigondeaux land a lower percentage of punches.)
• Possibly the most accurate and efficient fighter in the history of the sport. Mayweather lands a higher % of punches thrown than any other CompuBox-tracked boxer. In terms of CompuBox statistics, Floyd has dominated nearly every fighter he's ever fought.
• Patient counterpuncher by nature who uses his speed and reflexes to make opponents miss before countering with an unpredictable assortment of straight right hands, jabs, and left hooks. Has a quick release which makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to time his punches. As great as Pacquiao's speed is, Floyd actually has superior hand and foot speed which should result in success in evading Pacquiao's power and beating Pacquiao to the punch when necessary. 
• Widely considered one of the smartest and fundamentally sound boxers in the history of the sport. Savvy, crafty fighter who is highly adept at reading his opponents and making technical adjustments over the course of the fight. Will have a clear advantage vs. Pacquiao in terms of both ring IQ and technical skill.  
• Experienced veteran fighting in his 25th world title fight (over half the fights in his career have been world title fights). The majority of opponents Mayweather has fought over the past eight years were ranked in the Ring Magazine top ten pound-for-pound at the time they fought Mayweather. Including the last two fights vs. Marcos Maidana, Mayweather's last 14 opponents were either current or former major titleholders at the time they fought Mayweather.
• Mayweather is usually the smaller man in the fight but will come into this fight vs. Pacquiao as the naturally bigger man. Will also have a significant (5") reach advantage which, when combined with his excellent foot movement, will make it difficult for Pacquiao to land punches consistently.
• Has an excellent chin. Has only officially been knocked down once in his career, a May 2001 fight vs. Carlos Hernandez where he took a knee in pain after breaking his left hand (due to a left hook which hit Hernandez's elbow). Has been hit flush by power punchers (most notably vs. Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Maidana) but always recovered to take control and dominate the remainder of the fight.
• Mayweather's power isn't great, particularly at welterweight, but is underrated. Mayweather does have 26 wins by TKO/KO in his career and opponents generally respect Mayweather's power due to the accuracy with which he lands punches. 
• Excellent at fighting inside, in particular to the body. Highly effective at using veteran tricks on the inside (e.g., timely use of his forearms and elbows to push opponents off) to create space while simultaneously landing clean punches. Throws very accurate and effective short punches, uppercuts, and left hands to the body. 
• Even at 38 years old is still in great shape and possesses excellent stamina; fights with as much energy in the later rounds of fights as the early rounds. Generally dominates the middle and later rounds of fights as his opponents tire.
• Two of the judges in the fight - Burt Clements and Dave Moretti - have judged multiple Mayweather fights in the past and generally turned in Mayweather-friendly scorecards. For example, Clements and Moretti scored the 1st Maidana fight 117-111 and 116-112 respectively for Mayweather while the third judge had the fight a draw. In the Mayweather vs. Hatton fight (December 2007), Clements and Moretti both had the fight scored 89-81 at the time of stoppage for Mayweather (giving Hatton only one of the first eight rounds), which was wider than most ring observers scored the fight. 
• For this fight Mayweather is working with noted strength coaches Alex Ariza (the former longtime strength and conditioning coach of Pacquiao) and Memo Heredia (the strength coach credited for increasing Juan Manuel Marquez's strength prior to his December 2012 KO victory of Pacquiao). It appears Mayweather is making a concerted effort to increase his strength for this fight, which certainly poses a threat to the at times defensively susceptible Pacquiao.

Negatives for Mayweather

• Although still widely considered the top boxer in the sport, Mayweather is 38 years old - several years past his prime - and doesn't have quite the power, speed, or legs he had when he was younger (though his power and speed actually haven't slipped as much as many think). In two out of Mayweather's last three fights (1st fight vs. Maidana and his September 2013 fight vs. Canelo Alvarez), one of the three judges scored the fight a draw. Both of Mayweather's recent fights vs. Maidana - in particular the 1st fight - were competitive fights, among the closest fights he's had since his controversial victory vs. Jose Luis Castillo in April 2002. Pacquiao is a more much more skilled, quicker, and faster opponent than Maidana so if Maidana was able to give Floyd problems, Pacquiao at minimum should have some stretches of success in the fight. 
• Mayweather has never fought a fighter with with Pacquiao's combination of unpredictability, power, and speed. There's a good chance Pacquiao's awkward punching angles and quick in and out movement will frustrate Mayweather, particularly in the early rounds as he tries to adjust to Pacquiao's tendencies. The last time Mayweather fought someone with speed comparable to Pacquiao (Judah in April 2006), he lost three out of the first four rounds of the fight. The last time Mayweather fought someone with both great power and footwork (Mosley), he was rocked multiple times in the early rounds with power shots. Mayweather will almost certainly have trouble in spots with Pacquiao's combination of good movement, power, and speed, especially considering that Pacquiao - like Mayweather - has excellent stamina and is unlikely to tire over the course of the 12 round fight.
• Mayweather is an efficient, but low-volume puncher who can get out-worked, especially in early rounds while he is figuring his opponents out. This was certainly the case in his first fight vs. Maidana where Mayweather appeared to lose many of the early rounds (per CompuBox stats, Maidana outlanded Mayweather in 5 out of the first 6 rounds of the first fight), his fights vs. southpaws Judah and De La Hoya (where he arguably lost three out of the first four rounds in both fights), and vs. 9-1 underdog Robert Guerrero (where he arguably lost the first two rounds of the fight). Although Pacquiao has been a more cautious fighter as of late, I would expect Pacquiao to outwork Mayweather in the early rounds and wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao is leading by multiple rounds early.
• Mayweather's primary defensive technique, the shoulder roll from an orthodox stance, won't be as effective  vs. an aggressive southpaw so he likely won't use it as much as he would vs. an orthodox fighter - which should leave him more vulnerable to clean punching.
• Mayweather has underrated power but he hasn't knocked down an opponent in over 3.5 years (September 2011 KO victory vs. Victor Ortiz when he caught an unsuspecting Ortiz with what many thought was a cheap shot). Mayweather's issues with power are in part due to having notoriously brittle hands, both of which he's broken multiple times over the course of his career. Although Pacquiao sometimes overcommits and leaves himself open to clean counterpunching, it is unlikely Mayweather wins this fight by TKO/KO due to his lack of KO power.
• Although fighting in his resident city of Las Vegas and in the MGM Grand Garden arena where he has fought his last 10 fights, the crowd is expected to be largely pro-Pacquiao, which should motivate Manny and could influence the judges' scoring. 

Positives for Pacquiao

• Current Ring Magazine #3 pound-for-pound fighter and WBO welterweight champion. Has won ten world titles across a record eight weight divisions. Although he has (arguably) slipped somewhat, Pacquiao is still unquestionably one of the elite fighters in the sport. Pacquiao still has much of the incredible hand speed and explosive power that made him a boxing icon. Future first ballot hall-of-famer who is alongside Floyd Mayweather as one of the top two fighters of this generation. 
• Aggressive "in and out" ambush fighter who is adept at moving "in" on his opponents and using his excellent hand speed to land clean, powerful combinations, then using quickness and foot speed to move "out" of range before his opponents can counter. Highly skilled with the use of feints and other deceptive movements to keep his opponents off guard. Although past his prime, Pacquiao still has elite speed and footwork; this will be the first time in Mayweather's career that he has fought an opponent with Pacquiao's unique combination of movement, power, and speed. Pacquiao has the speed and stamina to stay with the typically elusive Mayweather and the power from various angles to keep him frustrated and on the defensive throughout the fight.
• Pacquiao hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in 5.5 years (9 fights - his last TKO/KO win was 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009) but still has legitimate KO power in both hands. In his most recent fight, knocked down then undefeated and current WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri six times. Scored two knockdowns in his December 2012 fight vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and appeared on the verge of a KO victory before getting caught with a counter right hand near the end of the 6th round that ended the fight. Pacquiao's key advantage vs. Mayweather will be his power and threat to hurt him at any moment of any round during the fight.
• Unpredictable, tricky fighter who often throws punches from awkward angles, making it very difficult for even skilled defensive fighters (e.g., Mayweather) to anticipate where the punches are coming from - especially given the speed at which the punches are thrown. Manny's best punch is his straight left hand, which was especially effective for him in both fights vs. Timothy Bradley and his most recent fight vs. Algieri. 
• Although he has adopted a more cautious style in recent fights, Pacquiao is still a come-forward, relatively high-volume fighter who will likely outwork and perhaps display more effective aggression vs. the efficient but low-volume Mayweather throughout stretches of the fight. While Mayweather has a quickness advantage and can be expected to beat Pacquiao to the punch with potshots, Pacquiao is more adept at putting together quick combinations, which could look more impressive to the judges even if all the punches don't land cleanly. Pacquiao has a relentlessness and killer instinct that Mayweather doesn't have which may benefit him on the final scorecards.  
• Despite some defensive flaws, has excellent side-to-side head and upper body movement movement, which can make him difficult to hit cleanly. As noted above, has become a more cautious fighter in recent fights (i.e., has shown increased discipline defensively and doesn't overcommit with punches as much as he used to) so may be tougher for Mayweather to land punches than many may think.
• How much has Pacquiao really slipped over the past few years? The vast majority of boxing fans felt Pacquiao won both fights vs. Bradley convincingly. In his December 2012 fight vs. Marquez, Pacquiao was clearly winning the fight -  knocking Marquez down twice and appearing to be on his way towards a KO victory before Marquez ended the fight with a sneaky right hand. In Pacquiao's November 2013 fight vs. Brandon Rios, Pacquiao arguably won all 12 rounds. (One judge in the Rios fight did score all 12 rounds for Pacquiao.) And in his most recent fight vs. then undefeated world champion Algieri, Pacquiao thoroughly dominated in knocking Algieri down six times and winning arguably every round of the fight. 
• Highly experienced fighter whose defense and technical skills have improved over the years under hall-of-fame trainer Freddie Roach. Arguably outboxed Bradley in both of their fights and Marquez in their most recent fight despite taking losses in two out of the three fights. Despite slightly diminished power and speed is less reckless and displays higher boxing IQ now than he did in his prime. Pacquiao is certainly at a disadvantage in terms of technical skill and ring IQ vs. Mayweather but is a bit underrated in this regard. 
• Like Mayweather, Pacquiao has excellent stamina - even well past his prime at 36 years old. Does not tire in the later rounds of fights. Five of Pacquiao's six knockdowns in his most recent fight vs. Algieri came past the 5th round and Pacquiao pulled away from. then undefeated and Ring Magazine #3-ranked Bradley in the later rounds after a fairly even first half of the fight.
• As noted above the MGM Grand Garden arena will be a pro-Pacquiao crowd; partisan crowds can sometimes unintentionally influence judges' scorecards.
• Like Mayweather has performed best in his biggest fights. Am unflappable fighter who is seemingly unaffected by the pressure of big money PPV fights.

Negatives for Pacquiao

• Pacquiao is 36 years old and, while still an elite fighter, has lost some of the power, speed, and quickness he had in his prime. Pacquiao has lost two out of his last five fights and hasn't scored a TKO/KO victory in over half a decade (9 fights). Generally, boxers who rely on hand speed, quickness, and other athletic abilities don't age as well as pure technical boxers (e.g., Mayweather). 
• Pacquiao is coming into this fight vs. Mayweather as the naturally smaller, shorter man with a 5" reach disadvantage. Pacquiao has in the past dominated boxers larger and taller than him (Antonio Margarito, Oscar De La Hoya, etc.) but the larger, taller opponent with comparable speed, longer reach, and superior boxing technique he is facing in Mayweather will likely be a much tougher task.   
• Pacquiao has never fought a boxer with the speed, accuracy, or technical skill of Mayweather. The closest Pacquiao has come to fighting a boxer resembling Mayweather is Timothy Bradley, who beat Pacquiao in a highly controversial split decision in their first fight and was very competitive with Pacquiao in their rematch, particularly in the early rounds. Mayweather is faster, more accurate, more skilled, and has more punching power than Bradley so will almost certainly be a much tougher test for Manny.
• Pacquiao is an excellent ambush fighter who boxes very well when coming towards his opponents but does not fight nearly as well when fighting backing up on his feet. Although primarily a counter puncher, Mayweather is known to sometimes turn into the aggressor and walk opponents down in the mid to later rounds once he's solved an opponent's timing (which he did with success most recently vs. the much bigger Canelo in their September 2013 fight).
• While Pacquiao's defense and ring IQ have improved over the years with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao is far from a defensive mastermind. Pacquiao's aggression and awkward punching style (where he at times overcommits to punches) often leaves him out-of-position, subjecting him to clean counter punching (as seen multiple times in his KO loss vs. Marquez and in the early rounds of his 2nd fight vs. Bradley). Pacquiao also isn't as mobile and doesn't roll with punches quite as well as he did in his prime. Mayweather is one of the great defensive fighters in boxing history; if he can get through the early rounds not too far behind on the scorecards he's more than capable - as Marquez did in multiple fights vs. Pacquiao  - of making the necessary adjustments to exploit Pacquiao's defensive flaws and overwhelm Manny in the middle to later rounds.
• Pacquiao's significant distractions outside the ring have been well-publicized. Pacquiao is a full-time Congressman in the Philippines when he's not boxing and, as a recently born-again Christian, has made numerous lifestyle changes. Pacquiao is also the (part-time) head coach and player for the Kia Sorentos, a basketball team in the Philippine Basketball Association, the top basketball league in the Philippines. Mayweather has appeared to be the more focused, serious fighter during training while Pacquiao is not always 100% focused due to outside distractions... it will be interesting to see if this plays into the outcome of tonight's fight. 

Prefight Summary

For many years I've thought this would be an easy fight for Mayweather. In Mayweather you have arguably the most dominant defensive fighter of all time - an elite technician with excellent speed and underrated power - vs. Pacquiao, an outstanding but at times overly aggressive fighter with flaws in some of boxing's basic fundamentals which include defensive holes a master boxer like Mayweather could exploit with little effort. If Marquez, a fighter Mayweather had no trouble with even after a nearly two-year layoff from the sport, could give Pacquiao all he could handle over the course of four fights (some would say Marquez won three or even all four fights) with effective counter punching and timing, then why wouldn't Mayweather - a bigger, stronger, quicker, and more skilled counter puncher than Marquez - be able to dominate Pacquiao the same way he did Marquez? Floyd's skills also compare very favorably to Erik Morales, who beat Pacquiao decisively in their first fight with accurate counter punching and timing.

But styles make fights. While not possessing the same overall counter punching skill as Mayweather, Marquez and Morales (and to some extent Tim Bradley in his competitive fights vs. Pacquiao) were *aggressive*, higher volume counter punchers who were willing to take risks vs, Pacquiao that Mayweather is likely not willing to take. Marquez was knocked down six times by Pacquiao over four fights before the payoff KO victory in the 6th round of their most  recent fight. Morales and Bradley had success counter punching in many spots due to a willingness to stand in and trade vs. Pacquiao's feared combination of speed and power. Albeit more skilled and likely more adept to counter Pacquiao's over-aggressiveness and defensive flaws, Mayweather is a low-risk, low punch volume counter puncher compared to Marquez, Morales, and Bradley. Mayweather is far less willing to stand in and exchange punches with Pacquiao - which could be to his detriment on the judges' final scorecards.

Pacquiao will likely be the aggressor in the early rounds, coming forward and throwing his usual straight lefts and combinations while the more cautious Mayweather lays back and tries to figure out Pacquiao's timing. Besides Zab Judah (who won three out of the first four rounds in his fight with Mayweather), Pacquiao is the only fighter Mayweather has fought with comparable speed to his own. Pacquiao's speed combined with his elite power and awkward punching style will likely frustrate Mayweather early, if not throughout the entire fight. There is a reasonable chance the aggressive, high punch volume Pacquiao will outwork Mayweather and make his combination flurries (whether they actually land cleanly or not) look good enough that the judges score the fight for Pacquiao. Note also that part of Mayweather's success in mid to late rounds is that his opponents often tire in the 2nd half of fights; this won't be the case with Pacquiao (given his excellent stamina) so we could see an entire 12-round fight of Manny throwing punches with the low-volume Mayweather on his back foot throwing little in return - a scenario which could very easily result in a clear decision victory for Pacquiao.

But at the end of the day I think Mayweather has too many advantages in this matchup for Pacquiao to overcome. Mayweather is the bigger, stronger, smarter fighter with the significant reach advantage, better foot movement, and overall superior skill. Pacquiao has always been able to overcome bigger, stronger fighters with his unique combination of power and speed but Floyd should largely be able to neutralize Pacquiao's strengths with his own speed, reach, and defensive skills. Like Marquez and Morales in their wins vs. Pacquiao, I see Mayweather developing a timing on Manny as the fight progresses; he will compel Pacquiao to become over-aggressive in spots and to overcommit with punches - which should provide Mayweather the opportunity to land clean counter punches. Once Mayweather figures Pacquiao out, Pacquiao will find it difficult to land punches; unlike Mayweather Manny doesn't have the skill to re-adjust to Mayweather's adjustments down the stretch. Pacquiao generally makes up for his deficiencies in technical skill (e.g., vs. technically sound fighters like Marquez) with superior speed and athleticism but these qualities will be of little avail in this fight vs. the faster, more athletic Mayweather.

If this fight comes down to a preference of styles (i.e., Pacquiao's high volume and aggression vs. Mayweather's efficient, accurate punching) one very important point to consider is that two of the judges in this fight - Dave Moretti and Burt Clements - have in previous Mayweather fights scored the fights wider than expected in favor of Mayweather, an indication that they may prefer his accuracy and precision over high-volume activity that may or may not land cleanly.

I do think this fight could go either way - especially if Mayweather is in front of Pacquiao more than expected and lets Pacquiao outwork him - but I think Mayweather will be able to neutralize Pacquiao's advantages in power and punching volume with accuracy and timing and by utilizing his clear physical advantages en route to a competitive but clear decision victory. If there does happen to be a knockout in this fight I think it's much more likely the KO punch comes from the more precise Mayweather than from Pacquiao, would be looking to knockout an opponent who has only been knocked down once in his nearly 20 year career.

In any case, we can only hope and pray this fight lives up to the unprecedented hype!!!
   

Prediction: Mayweather by decision 

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