Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox
Why you should watch this fight
The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.
The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.
But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).
This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.
Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.
Prefight Analysis
Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).
Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.
Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.
Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.
I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.
As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.
Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.
If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).
I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!
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